LARRY NESS
REASON FOR PICK: My AFC GOM is on the NY Jets at 4.15 ET. Caldwell and the Colts say they aren't going to let up. That's all well and good but the fact is that they ARE likely to give some key players some rest and that the Jets ARE going to go all out for a victory. Caldwell had this to say: "The thing about this next game is how we're going to play depends on the health of our team and what it looks like. Now, the health of our team also could include getting them rested and ready as well. That's part of that, but it also may mean some injuries here or there. That may dictate some changes in the lineup." Jets coach Ryan speculated the following: "We're going to start with the injury report, obviously. "Manning, (Dallas) Clark, (Joseph) Addai, Reggie Wayne, (Dwight) Freeney, (Robert) Mathis, (Gary) Brackett - all those guys will not play." In reality, Ryan and the Jets aren't likely to be that fortunate. Still, they should give the Colts all they can handle and very possibly more. The Jets are off a tough loss but they're still a quality team and they're still very much alive in the race. The Jets have the league's top-rated rushing offense, which should give them an edge against a Colts rush defense which is ranked 16th. The Jets, who have limited opponents to a total of only 32 points over the last four games, are also tough on the other side of the ball, particuarly against the pass. In fact, New York has the top-ranked pass defense in the league. Five of the Colts last eight games were decided by four or less and the Jets have only lost one of their last 10 by more than five. Grab the points. *10
REASON FOR PICK: My Blowout GOW is on Philadelphia at 4:15 ET. The Broncos were a great story early in the year. As the saying goes, that was then, this is now. With last week's home loss to the Raiders, this is a team that has now lost two in a row and six of their last eight. Those six losses came by an average of 15.5 points. Other than last week's 1-point setback vs. the Raiders, all five losses came by double-digits. If the Broncos couldn't win a home game vs. the Raiders, there chances of winning at Philadelphia are slim indeed. The Eagles, 15-5 their last 20 December home games, have won five straight overall, covering each of the last three. They won those three games by an average margin of 35.3 to 19.3. Their last three December home games (1 this year, 2 last year) have resulted in scores of 30-10, 44-6 and 27-13. The Broncos running attack has stalled in recent weeks and they'll be without receiver Eddie Royal. The Broncos need this game to stay alive in the playoff race. The Eagles need it too though, as a win here puts them in the driver's seat for the NFC East title and keeps them alive for the #2 overall seed in the NFC. The return of Dawkins and to a lesser extent Buckhalter may provide Denver with an emotional boost to begin the game. It won't be enough though. Andy Reid noted: "Our team understands that we're not playing Buck and Dawk, but we're playing the Denver Broncos. They know that they need to study the team as opposed to studying those two players and that's what they are going to do." The Eagles are currently better on both sides of the ball. They've got the much better QB, the better coach and they're playing at home. Line has dropped providing extra value. This should be one-sided. *8 Philadelphia
REASON FOR PICK: My AFC GOM is on the NY Jets at 4.15 ET. Caldwell and the Colts say they aren't going to let up. That's all well and good but the fact is that they ARE likely to give some key players some rest and that the Jets ARE going to go all out for a victory. Caldwell had this to say: "The thing about this next game is how we're going to play depends on the health of our team and what it looks like. Now, the health of our team also could include getting them rested and ready as well. That's part of that, but it also may mean some injuries here or there. That may dictate some changes in the lineup." Jets coach Ryan speculated the following: "We're going to start with the injury report, obviously. "Manning, (Dallas) Clark, (Joseph) Addai, Reggie Wayne, (Dwight) Freeney, (Robert) Mathis, (Gary) Brackett - all those guys will not play." In reality, Ryan and the Jets aren't likely to be that fortunate. Still, they should give the Colts all they can handle and very possibly more. The Jets are off a tough loss but they're still a quality team and they're still very much alive in the race. The Jets have the league's top-rated rushing offense, which should give them an edge against a Colts rush defense which is ranked 16th. The Jets, who have limited opponents to a total of only 32 points over the last four games, are also tough on the other side of the ball, particuarly against the pass. In fact, New York has the top-ranked pass defense in the league. Five of the Colts last eight games were decided by four or less and the Jets have only lost one of their last 10 by more than five. Grab the points. *10
REASON FOR PICK: My #1 NFC East total is on Was/Dal Under at 8:20 ET. The Redskins are off an awful defensive performance on National TV last Monday. That has stuck in the memories of bettors which has worked to help keep tonight's number generously high. The current number is even slightly larger than it was for the earlier meeting. That earlier meeting wasn't exactly a shootout. The score was 3-0 at halftime and the final was 7-6. That was at Dallas but the previous meeting here at Washington was also of the low-scoring variety. The final score was 14-10 in favor of the Redsksins. The 2007 game here at Washington, also played in late December, finished with 33 points, a 27-6 win by the home team. As bad as the Redskins looked last week and have been this season, their defense has been largely respectable. Before last week's debacle, they'd only allowed 18.5 points per game at home. The problem has been the offense. The Skins are scoring only 16.7 points per game at home and 15.2 in their divisional games. Things won't get any easier against a Dallas defense that is clicking on all cylinders. The Cowboys have held six of their last seven opponents to 20 points or less. That includes high-scoring teams like Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Diego and New Orleans! Six of their last seven have dipped below the number. Looking at a couple of other o/u stats finds that the Under has gone 6-1 the last few years when Dallas has played against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Also, the Under has gone 10-4 the last 14 times that the Redskins were playing with revenge from an earlier loss and 10-4 when they were home dogs in 3.5 to 7 range. *10 Under