NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP:
OVERALL: 5-3
2*: 1-0
2*: 1-2
3*: 2-1
4*: 1-0
Clemson and Kentucky last met in the ‘06 Music City Bowl in which UK (+10’) upset CU 28-20 in UK HC Brooks’ first bowl at UK. UK leads the all-time series 8-4. This will be a school record 4th consec bowl for UK and their 3rd appearance in the L/4Y here. UK brought record crowds in ‘06 and ‘07 to Nashville. They were hoping for an Outback bid but fell in OT in their finale to Tenn and landed here again. UK is 8-5 SU all-time in bowls and CU is 15-16. This is HC Swinney’s 2nd bowl (lost LY 26-21 vs Neb in the Gator Bowl). With CU’s loss to GT in the ACC Champ gm and the announcement of FSU HC Bowden’s retirement, CU fell as far as contractually possible in the ACC bowl order. The Tigers are just 3-9 ATS in neutral site gms while UK has won a school record 18 consec gms vs non-conf opp’s incl a school record 3 bowls in a row (2 were outright upsets). CU has faced 8 caliber bowl teams (GT twice) and went 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS, barely outgaining them 410-406. UK has faced 6 bowl teams with a 2-4 SU record (3-3 ATS) and was outgained by an avg of 409-286. Both teams lost to SC TY, but UK lost by 2 and CU lost by 17 the wk prior to the ACC Champ gm. Tigers have 10 Sr starters and 16 upperclassmen while UK has 9 seniors starters and 15 upperclassmen.
The Tigers are led by the ACC POY RB CJ Spiller who is avg 193 all-purp ypg which ranks him #4 in the NCAA and is the only player in the FBS to score a TD in every gm TY. Although CU lost to GT in the ACC Title game, Spiller was named the game’s MVP. QB Parker has set CU frosh records for pass TD’s, yds and comp. His 2 favorite targets are 1st Tm ACC TE Palmer and 2nd Tm ACC WR Ford. CU’s OL avg 6’4” 313 and is led by two 2nd Tm ACC OL’s in LG Thomas Austin and LT Chris Hairston. The Tigers have only all’d 19 sks (5.1%) while paving the way for 4.8 ypc rush. CU has our #16 offense and our #10 defense. CU’s D-line avg 6’4” 283 and is led by 2nd Tm ACC DE Sapp. The Tigers have 34 sks and have held opp’s to just 3.5 ypc rush. The CU D is all’g 21 ppg and 317 ypg. The LB corps is led by HM ACC Maye. CU has our #16 pass eff defense and has recorded 21 int. The secondary is led by 1st Tm ACC S McDaniel and HM ACC CB Chancellor. CU has our #18 spec tms led by AA specialist Spiller who has recorded 4 KR TD’s TY. CU is avg 23.8 ypr on KR’s and 14.4 on PR’s. They are all’g 20.1 ypr on KR’s and 11.5 on PR’s.
UK has soldiered through another tough year with injuries affecting the outcome of their ssn. QB Hartline suffered a knee inj in the 5th gm which forced true frosh Newton to burn his RS. Hartline did play in 1 more but was ineffective. Newton st’d the L/6, but has had the typical struggles that a true frosh faces in the SEC. Cobb is the team’s top receiver but was forced to take more snaps at QB (mostly in the Wildcat) and is #2 on the tm in rushing behind RB Locke who also missed some time with inj. With time off to heal, both Locke and Cobb should have a strong showing in the bowl and Cobb missed LY’s bowl with inj so he should be excited for this one. The OL starters avg 6’4” 305 with 4 seniors and they have been solid allowing just 15 sks despite the inexperience at QB and UK has avg 193 rush ypg (4.6). Overall UK ranks #54 on offense and #46 on defense. Unfortunately one of the D’s top performers will miss the bowl as All-SEC LB Maxwell suffered a shoulder inj vs Tenn. He had 6 int TY, the most ever in a single ssn by a UK LB. Two of UK’s other top defenders were hobbled by inj’s as ‘08 AA CB Lindley missed 4 gms with an ankle inj and MLB Johnson played through a bothersome knee inj. Overall the defensive numbers were down from LY as they all’d 44 ypg rush more but still ranked #15 in our pass D rankings allowing just 180 ypg (48%) with a 16-16 ratio and CB Lindley should be healthy for this. UK is #42 in our spec tms rankings with a solid P and dangerous returnmen, but K Seiber is erratic and KO man McIntosh has had 4/47 KO’s OOB.
Kentucky had one major goal this year and that was to improve to a non-Tennessee bowl. While Clemson is also disappointed to be here, HC Swinney’s enthusiasm should be enough to return Clemson to their high energy style of play in which they covered 5 straight and avg’d 42 ppg from mid-Oct thru mid-Nov. The checklist shows the talent difference between these two squads and although most players were not part of the 2006 Music City Bowl, the Tigers still gain revenge for that loss.
FORECAST: CLEMSON by 17 RATING:
4* CLEMSON
NFL Key Selections:
3* GREEN BAY over Seattle - Including playoffs this is the 4th straight season with a meeting between the teams with the favorite going 3-0 SU/ATS. GB went into SEA as a 1 pt AD & beat them 27-17.GB had a 313-177 yd edge vs a very depleted SEA team that started its #3 QB due to injuries. SEA had a 17-3 lead when the Packers scored 24 unanswered points then allowed a garbage TD late in the 4Q. The Packers had a 313-177 yd edge as Rodgers hit for 208 yds (70%) with 2 TD’s. GB’s #2 rush defense which is allowing 89 ypg (3.9) at home TY vs weak SEA rush attack. Rodgers has avg 269 ypg (66%) with a 13-3 ratio at home TY has only been sacked 6 times in the L4 games prior to PIT. SEA’s #16 pass rush has been balanced TY pulling in 12 sacks on the road TY but are allowing 290 ypg (71%) with a 15-4 ratio on the road. SEA has been outgained by 138 ypg in the 4 games prior to TB as their defense wears down & defenses have figured out how to expose the OL. GB has lots to play for as they want the #5 seed, have a road trip to ARZ on deck & SEA simply doesn’t travel well with their only road win TY being vs a STL team that started Boller.
FORECAST: GREEN BAY 27 Seattle 10
3* Houston over MIAMI - This game means a lot to both as Houston players want to keep Kubiak & the Dolphins may have an outside shot at the playoffs. This is the 4th meeting between the teams & while MIA has yet to host or win a game they have covered the L2. LY HOU beat the Dolphins 29-28 but failed to cover as a 3 pt HF. HOU overcame 4 TO’s in the game with a 485-370 yd edge as Schaub ran for the game winning TD on 4th & goal with :07 left. MIA is 5-24 ATS as a HF. HOU is 7-2 ATS as an AD. We would love to see the Dolphins still in the playoff hunt as they are off a stretch of 4 road games in 5 weeks and they would be laying an inflated playoff need number. HOU rebounded from a devastating 4 game losing streak and beat SEA 2 weeks ago. Remember this team has been 8-8 each of the last 2 seasons and still plays hard down the stretch winning and covering 5 of 7. This is similar to LY when MIA was a HF in Dec laying 6 pts to SF and did win but failed to cover being
conservative & getting outgained 318-248. FORECAST: Houston 28 MIAMI 24
Other Selections:
2* ATLANTA over Buffalo - This is the Falcons 4th home game in 5 weeks but they have a road gamevsTBondeck.Thereisstillaquestionifth eFalconshaveRyan(turftoe)hereastheteamha s hinted that a steel toed shoe isn’t working out. If Turner plays he could have a solid day vs poor run defense & Gonzalez is a great matchup vs a depleted BUF LB unit. ATL has a poor pass defense/ pass rush that could struggle vs BUF WR’s. ATL HC Smith has preached taking care of your home field and despite still being 12-3 at home they are off B2B home losses as both Ryan & Turner missed the Philly & NO games. The Falcons are 5-0 SU & 4-1 as a HF TY and big win in their home finale will be motivation. The Bills offense is avg just 265 ypg on the road and have topped the 300 yard barrier just once. This is the Bills 3rd game away from home in 4 weeks sandwiched by a pair of marquee home games vs NE & the potentially undefeated Colts and this is not their spot. BUF’s rush defense has surrendered 190 ypg & 5.2 ypc the last 11 games & the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in
games they rush for over 90 yds in. Atlanta takes care of business in their home finale.
3★ Texans/Dolphins OVER
3★ Patriots/Jaguars UNDER
2★ Saints/Bucs OVER
2★ Colts/Jets UNDER
OVERALL: 5-3
2*: 1-0
2*: 1-2
3*: 2-1
4*: 1-0
Clemson and Kentucky last met in the ‘06 Music City Bowl in which UK (+10’) upset CU 28-20 in UK HC Brooks’ first bowl at UK. UK leads the all-time series 8-4. This will be a school record 4th consec bowl for UK and their 3rd appearance in the L/4Y here. UK brought record crowds in ‘06 and ‘07 to Nashville. They were hoping for an Outback bid but fell in OT in their finale to Tenn and landed here again. UK is 8-5 SU all-time in bowls and CU is 15-16. This is HC Swinney’s 2nd bowl (lost LY 26-21 vs Neb in the Gator Bowl). With CU’s loss to GT in the ACC Champ gm and the announcement of FSU HC Bowden’s retirement, CU fell as far as contractually possible in the ACC bowl order. The Tigers are just 3-9 ATS in neutral site gms while UK has won a school record 18 consec gms vs non-conf opp’s incl a school record 3 bowls in a row (2 were outright upsets). CU has faced 8 caliber bowl teams (GT twice) and went 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS, barely outgaining them 410-406. UK has faced 6 bowl teams with a 2-4 SU record (3-3 ATS) and was outgained by an avg of 409-286. Both teams lost to SC TY, but UK lost by 2 and CU lost by 17 the wk prior to the ACC Champ gm. Tigers have 10 Sr starters and 16 upperclassmen while UK has 9 seniors starters and 15 upperclassmen.
The Tigers are led by the ACC POY RB CJ Spiller who is avg 193 all-purp ypg which ranks him #4 in the NCAA and is the only player in the FBS to score a TD in every gm TY. Although CU lost to GT in the ACC Title game, Spiller was named the game’s MVP. QB Parker has set CU frosh records for pass TD’s, yds and comp. His 2 favorite targets are 1st Tm ACC TE Palmer and 2nd Tm ACC WR Ford. CU’s OL avg 6’4” 313 and is led by two 2nd Tm ACC OL’s in LG Thomas Austin and LT Chris Hairston. The Tigers have only all’d 19 sks (5.1%) while paving the way for 4.8 ypc rush. CU has our #16 offense and our #10 defense. CU’s D-line avg 6’4” 283 and is led by 2nd Tm ACC DE Sapp. The Tigers have 34 sks and have held opp’s to just 3.5 ypc rush. The CU D is all’g 21 ppg and 317 ypg. The LB corps is led by HM ACC Maye. CU has our #16 pass eff defense and has recorded 21 int. The secondary is led by 1st Tm ACC S McDaniel and HM ACC CB Chancellor. CU has our #18 spec tms led by AA specialist Spiller who has recorded 4 KR TD’s TY. CU is avg 23.8 ypr on KR’s and 14.4 on PR’s. They are all’g 20.1 ypr on KR’s and 11.5 on PR’s.
UK has soldiered through another tough year with injuries affecting the outcome of their ssn. QB Hartline suffered a knee inj in the 5th gm which forced true frosh Newton to burn his RS. Hartline did play in 1 more but was ineffective. Newton st’d the L/6, but has had the typical struggles that a true frosh faces in the SEC. Cobb is the team’s top receiver but was forced to take more snaps at QB (mostly in the Wildcat) and is #2 on the tm in rushing behind RB Locke who also missed some time with inj. With time off to heal, both Locke and Cobb should have a strong showing in the bowl and Cobb missed LY’s bowl with inj so he should be excited for this one. The OL starters avg 6’4” 305 with 4 seniors and they have been solid allowing just 15 sks despite the inexperience at QB and UK has avg 193 rush ypg (4.6). Overall UK ranks #54 on offense and #46 on defense. Unfortunately one of the D’s top performers will miss the bowl as All-SEC LB Maxwell suffered a shoulder inj vs Tenn. He had 6 int TY, the most ever in a single ssn by a UK LB. Two of UK’s other top defenders were hobbled by inj’s as ‘08 AA CB Lindley missed 4 gms with an ankle inj and MLB Johnson played through a bothersome knee inj. Overall the defensive numbers were down from LY as they all’d 44 ypg rush more but still ranked #15 in our pass D rankings allowing just 180 ypg (48%) with a 16-16 ratio and CB Lindley should be healthy for this. UK is #42 in our spec tms rankings with a solid P and dangerous returnmen, but K Seiber is erratic and KO man McIntosh has had 4/47 KO’s OOB.
Kentucky had one major goal this year and that was to improve to a non-Tennessee bowl. While Clemson is also disappointed to be here, HC Swinney’s enthusiasm should be enough to return Clemson to their high energy style of play in which they covered 5 straight and avg’d 42 ppg from mid-Oct thru mid-Nov. The checklist shows the talent difference between these two squads and although most players were not part of the 2006 Music City Bowl, the Tigers still gain revenge for that loss.
FORECAST: CLEMSON by 17 RATING:
4* CLEMSON
NFL Key Selections:
3* GREEN BAY over Seattle - Including playoffs this is the 4th straight season with a meeting between the teams with the favorite going 3-0 SU/ATS. GB went into SEA as a 1 pt AD & beat them 27-17.GB had a 313-177 yd edge vs a very depleted SEA team that started its #3 QB due to injuries. SEA had a 17-3 lead when the Packers scored 24 unanswered points then allowed a garbage TD late in the 4Q. The Packers had a 313-177 yd edge as Rodgers hit for 208 yds (70%) with 2 TD’s. GB’s #2 rush defense which is allowing 89 ypg (3.9) at home TY vs weak SEA rush attack. Rodgers has avg 269 ypg (66%) with a 13-3 ratio at home TY has only been sacked 6 times in the L4 games prior to PIT. SEA’s #16 pass rush has been balanced TY pulling in 12 sacks on the road TY but are allowing 290 ypg (71%) with a 15-4 ratio on the road. SEA has been outgained by 138 ypg in the 4 games prior to TB as their defense wears down & defenses have figured out how to expose the OL. GB has lots to play for as they want the #5 seed, have a road trip to ARZ on deck & SEA simply doesn’t travel well with their only road win TY being vs a STL team that started Boller.
FORECAST: GREEN BAY 27 Seattle 10
3* Houston over MIAMI - This game means a lot to both as Houston players want to keep Kubiak & the Dolphins may have an outside shot at the playoffs. This is the 4th meeting between the teams & while MIA has yet to host or win a game they have covered the L2. LY HOU beat the Dolphins 29-28 but failed to cover as a 3 pt HF. HOU overcame 4 TO’s in the game with a 485-370 yd edge as Schaub ran for the game winning TD on 4th & goal with :07 left. MIA is 5-24 ATS as a HF. HOU is 7-2 ATS as an AD. We would love to see the Dolphins still in the playoff hunt as they are off a stretch of 4 road games in 5 weeks and they would be laying an inflated playoff need number. HOU rebounded from a devastating 4 game losing streak and beat SEA 2 weeks ago. Remember this team has been 8-8 each of the last 2 seasons and still plays hard down the stretch winning and covering 5 of 7. This is similar to LY when MIA was a HF in Dec laying 6 pts to SF and did win but failed to cover being
conservative & getting outgained 318-248. FORECAST: Houston 28 MIAMI 24
Other Selections:
2* ATLANTA over Buffalo - This is the Falcons 4th home game in 5 weeks but they have a road gamevsTBondeck.Thereisstillaquestionifth eFalconshaveRyan(turftoe)hereastheteamha s hinted that a steel toed shoe isn’t working out. If Turner plays he could have a solid day vs poor run defense & Gonzalez is a great matchup vs a depleted BUF LB unit. ATL has a poor pass defense/ pass rush that could struggle vs BUF WR’s. ATL HC Smith has preached taking care of your home field and despite still being 12-3 at home they are off B2B home losses as both Ryan & Turner missed the Philly & NO games. The Falcons are 5-0 SU & 4-1 as a HF TY and big win in their home finale will be motivation. The Bills offense is avg just 265 ypg on the road and have topped the 300 yard barrier just once. This is the Bills 3rd game away from home in 4 weeks sandwiched by a pair of marquee home games vs NE & the potentially undefeated Colts and this is not their spot. BUF’s rush defense has surrendered 190 ypg & 5.2 ypc the last 11 games & the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in
games they rush for over 90 yds in. Atlanta takes care of business in their home finale.
3★ Texans/Dolphins OVER
3★ Patriots/Jaguars UNDER
2★ Saints/Bucs OVER
2★ Colts/Jets UNDER
