Craig Davis
Craig Davis Sunday's Lineup
100 Dime --- REDSKINS (Absolutely buy the 1/2 point as this number has been sitting at +7 for four days)
20 Dime --- CLEMSON (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -7 or -7 1/2)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (absolutely buy the 1/2 point as this number has been sitting at an even 7 for the last four days)
Well, here it is. The game I've been waiting for. These games don't come along often, but when they do I like to pounce all over them. The Washington Redskins will not only cover this number, but I think they'll have a legitimate chance to win this game straight up. I liked this game a few weeks ago before everything transpired the way that it has, but after the events of the past week, I like this game even more.
Before I even break this game down from a historical and statistical standpoint, let's look at what these teams have been up to the last 8 days. First, the Cowboys did the absolute unthinkable by shocking the Saints and handing them their first loss of the season last Saturday night in the dome as 8-point dogs. They jumped out to a big lead and then hung on in the end to grab the 7-point win. The December "monkey" appears to now be off their back, right? Then, two nights later the Redskins host the Giants as three-point underdogs, and get absolutely embarrassed on National TV, 45-12. Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. Since then, DT Albert Haynesworth was sent home from practice because of his comments about the coaching and it appears that this whole team is in disarray. The line, coincidentally, has jumped from -4 to -7 because of everything you just read... yet the public is still backing the Cowboys. Perfect!!
Taking all of that into consideration, you might the Cowboys are going to go into FedEx Field tonight and absolutely lay the wood to the Redskins, but I couldn't disagree more. Since everything in the world points to a big Dallas win, that makes me even more confident the Redskins are the right side here. You see, for whatever reason, the general public still loves to bet on the Cowboys. Vegas took the line up three points and people are still jumping all over Dallas.
If you think about it, the Cowboys still stink in December... just because they got one big win in the "dreaded month" doesn't mean that proverbial monkey is off their back... that just means they shook him around a little. But because so much of the country saw them whip up on a seemingly unbeatable team (the Saints), it's safe to assume they also believe Washington won't pose much of a threat tonight, especially after what happened to them Monday night. Let's remember something first... I released a 10-dime winner on the Cowboys Saturday night and I also released a 30-dime winner on the Giants Monday night. The Giants play was bigger because after looking at historical data, it was apparent the Giants simply own the Redskins. For whatever reason, the Redskins just don't play well against the Giants not matter where they play them.
Same thing can be said for tonight's contest. What you saw Monday night is in no way an indication of what type of team the Redskins are. In the same breath, the Cowboys win over New Orleans was a must-win for them while the Saints treated it as just another game. Dallas was sick and tired of hearing about the whole December thing and they put everything they had into winning that game. So tonight's matchup might look like a mismatch on paper, but when you compare these two teams, look back at their first meeting of the year, and compare historical data when these two meet up in Washington, you'll realize that the Redskins are clearly the best play on the board today.
First off, let's note the Cowboys are just 4-3 on the road while the Redskins are 3-4 at home. Dallas' four road wins came at New Orleans (by 7), at Philly (by 4), at Kansas City (by 6) and at Tampa (by 13). Their other road trips included losses to Green Bay (by 10), to Denver (by 7) and to New York (by 7). If you're looking for their biggest wins, they came at home against Atlanta, Seattle and Oakland. Aside from those three games in the middle of the season, Dallas has been very average and simply isn't blowing out anyone... especially outdoors in cold weather. So what's to make me think they can play in a huge rivalry game like this, outdoors in the cold weather, and win by more than 7 points?? Folks, this is like taking candy from a baby.
Let's examine how these two teams have matched up over the years, especially when playing in the Nation's Capitol. Earlier this year the Cowboys needed every bit of the 60 minutes they played to earn a 7-6 victory over their NFC East rivals. The Redskins led much of the game, but fell short when Tony Romo hit Patrick Crayton for a TD pass with just under 3 minutes remaining. That game was IN Dallas. Last season the two teams split their season series, with each team winning on the other team's field... but neither game was decided by more than 4 points. In 2007 each team won on their home field, but Washington victory (27-6) was much more impressive than Dallas' win at home (only 28-23).
In fact, Dallas hasn't swept a season series from Washington since back in 2004... and both of those wins were by only three points. You have to go back to 2003 as the last time Dallas beat Washington by more than 7 points when playing in Washington. And in that game, a 27-0 win by the Cowboys, Washington had 4 costly turnovers that resulted in 21 Dallas points. The Cowboys would go on to the playoffs that year while the Redskins would barely win 5 games... and let's also remember Bill Parcells was coaching that team... not Wade Phillips. Phillips has NEVER beaten the Redskins by more than 7 points.
Before that you have to go back to 1998 when the Cowboys beat Washington by more than 7... and before that it was 1993. So you see, it's a very rare occurrence when Dallas waltzes into D.C. and comes out with a big victory. History is clearly on our side in this one.
Now, back to the Redskins for a minute. You don't think these guys realize they are auditioning for jobs under new GM Bruce Allen? There will be lots of changes this off-season, and each of these players knows that after what happened Monday night, none of them have job security unless they step it up for their last home game of the season. And what better way to go out than by beating the Dallas Cowboys, their arch-rival, in the 100th meeting of this storied rivalry in their home season finale?
Let's not crown the Cowboys yet. They still struggle to score points on the road, especially outdoors, and this game is sandwiched in between their huge emotional victory against the Saints and an even bigger divisional game vs. the Eagles next week. I'm not saying the Cowboys are looking past the Redskins tonight, but this game is a perfect spot for a small letdown... especially as a big road favorite. Gametime temperature is supposed to be right around 32 degrees, and I've seen the Cowboys struggle twice already this year in cold road games... at Green Bay and at New York. Nothing can convince me they have enough in the tank to beat the Redskins tonight in those same conditions.
And aside from all of these facts and figures, Dallas finally cut kicker Nick Folk after continual, costly misses in crucial situations. Who did they sign? Former Redskins kicker Shaun Suisham... whose missed chip shot against the Saints cost them a win earlier this month. Dallas is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games while the underdog in this series has covered 21 of the last 28 meetings. Some how, some way Shaun Suisham is going to be called on to make a crucial field goal late in this game. I have no idea if he's going to make it or miss it, but isn't it kinda ironic that it might come down to that? I'm taking the Redskins and the 7 1/2 (after we buy the 1/2 point) to cover against the Cowboys as my highest rated NFL play of the year.
CLEMSON TIGERS (buy the 1/2 point if your line is 7 or 7 1/2) --- To be honest, this selection is based solely on the fact that everyone in the world is on Kentucky and all the numbers point to a Wildcat cover. I haven't found a single handicapper yet who is on Clemson, and after looking at the numbers, taking Kentucky plus the points seems too easy. Just like taking Ohio seemed too easy yesterday. Just about every capper in the country was on Ohio, and to be honest, I liked them too when first looking at the numbers. But one thing I've always believed... when it looks absolutely too good to be true, it probably is. So I released Marshall as my Bonus Play and it came through. Same scenario applies here. I think Clemson is the better team and they have the best skill player on the field (CJ Spiller), but they have no business giving 7 points to anyone right now... especially the way their run defense played in their final two games of the season. Having said that, they do have Spiller, and since this is his final game in a Clemson uniform, you can bet he's going to leave it all on the field. Kentucky can't stop the run and the two best teams they've seen all year (Alabama and Florida) ran the ball down their throats, winning by an average of 25 points between them. I'm not saying Clemson is in the same breath as Florida and Alabama, but they're better than the teams Kentucky played at the end of the season. Let's also not forget Spiller is pretty darn good in the return game... something Kentucky has had trouble with this year as well. Dogs were ruling the roost early on in these college bowl games, but two of three favorites covered Saturday, including USC who was giving 7 1/2 points to Boston College.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------------GL GUYS
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