INDIAN COWBOY
4 Unit Play.* #106. Take the Cleveland Browns -3 over the Oakland Raiders (Sunday @ 1pm est).
The Cleveland Browns have slowly but surely been improving. This team not only defeated the Steelers at home but went on the road to defeat the Chiefs as well.* This team has covered five straight ballgames now and it is obvious that Mangini nor this team has quit on the year.* Part of the reason is because Mike Holmgren is likely to take over as the President of this team and Mangini understands that his job is on the line if he does not continue to coach.* But, he has coached well and these players are buying into the system.* The Browns covered against the Chargers and Bengals as well on the road as a twelve point dog and you have to admire a team that has not quit on the year despite having just three wins. Tack on the fact that the Raiders come off a big win against the Browns and I suspect they have a bit of a let down this Sunday.* Again, I can easily see the Browns winning this game by a field goal or more as they are starting to get into the groove in all facets of the ball as compared to earlier this year.
4 Unit Play.* #126.* Take San Francisco 49ers -12 over the Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 4:05pm est).
The Niners need a big win and who better than the Lions who come knocking.* The line quickly went up upon opening as the Niners come off a tough loss to the Eagles on the road.* But, bear in mind that these Niners defeated the NFC Champs in the Arizona Cardinals on MNF winning by a score of 24-9.* Mike Singletary's team does not lose back to back covers very often and they have not done so in the last ten games and the last time they came off a road loss was losing to Green Bay 24-30 only to return back home and defeat the Jaguars 20-3 as a three point chalk.* I like the Niners here to hang tough and bounce-back against the Lions who have not won back to back covers in the NFL in at least over ten weeks.* The Niners are 5-0-2 following an ATS loss and the Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.
4 Unit Play.* #219.* Take Kentucky +7 over Clemson (Sunday @ 8:30pm est).
I will gladly take the SEC team here in Kentucky over the Clemson Tigers.* Bear in mind for all the talent Clemson has, they should not be laying the touchdown here as this game reminds me very much of the 2006 contest between these two teams when then quarterback Woodson led the Wildcats to win that game outright as an eleven point dog.* At the end of the day, Kentucky and Rich Brooks' boys still get no respect as this team beat Auburn on the road outright which Alabama nearly did not do, this team beat Georgia on the road outright which Georgia Tech could not do at home and this team nearly beat South Carolina on the road outright losing by just two points which Clemson got handled relatively easily by the Gamecocks.* I'll take the touchdown on the Kentucky Wildcats who prefer to be here much more than Clemson who could be playing in the BCS game like Georgia Tech if they had not lost that close ballgame.* Again, its all about the teams that want to be here and Kentucky wants to be here a lot more than Clemson imo.
4 Unit Play.* #106. Take the Cleveland Browns -3 over the Oakland Raiders (Sunday @ 1pm est).
The Cleveland Browns have slowly but surely been improving. This team not only defeated the Steelers at home but went on the road to defeat the Chiefs as well.* This team has covered five straight ballgames now and it is obvious that Mangini nor this team has quit on the year.* Part of the reason is because Mike Holmgren is likely to take over as the President of this team and Mangini understands that his job is on the line if he does not continue to coach.* But, he has coached well and these players are buying into the system.* The Browns covered against the Chargers and Bengals as well on the road as a twelve point dog and you have to admire a team that has not quit on the year despite having just three wins. Tack on the fact that the Raiders come off a big win against the Browns and I suspect they have a bit of a let down this Sunday.* Again, I can easily see the Browns winning this game by a field goal or more as they are starting to get into the groove in all facets of the ball as compared to earlier this year.
4 Unit Play.* #126.* Take San Francisco 49ers -12 over the Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 4:05pm est).
The Niners need a big win and who better than the Lions who come knocking.* The line quickly went up upon opening as the Niners come off a tough loss to the Eagles on the road.* But, bear in mind that these Niners defeated the NFC Champs in the Arizona Cardinals on MNF winning by a score of 24-9.* Mike Singletary's team does not lose back to back covers very often and they have not done so in the last ten games and the last time they came off a road loss was losing to Green Bay 24-30 only to return back home and defeat the Jaguars 20-3 as a three point chalk.* I like the Niners here to hang tough and bounce-back against the Lions who have not won back to back covers in the NFL in at least over ten weeks.* The Niners are 5-0-2 following an ATS loss and the Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.
4 Unit Play.* #219.* Take Kentucky +7 over Clemson (Sunday @ 8:30pm est).
I will gladly take the SEC team here in Kentucky over the Clemson Tigers.* Bear in mind for all the talent Clemson has, they should not be laying the touchdown here as this game reminds me very much of the 2006 contest between these two teams when then quarterback Woodson led the Wildcats to win that game outright as an eleven point dog.* At the end of the day, Kentucky and Rich Brooks' boys still get no respect as this team beat Auburn on the road outright which Alabama nearly did not do, this team beat Georgia on the road outright which Georgia Tech could not do at home and this team nearly beat South Carolina on the road outright losing by just two points which Clemson got handled relatively easily by the Gamecocks.* I'll take the touchdown on the Kentucky Wildcats who prefer to be here much more than Clemson who could be playing in the BCS game like Georgia Tech if they had not lost that close ballgame.* Again, its all about the teams that want to be here and Kentucky wants to be here a lot more than Clemson imo.
WAYNE ROOT
Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants Giants
Take: Carolina Panthers
The New York Giants need help to reach the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. But the Carolina Panthers may be the team to destroy that dream. It seemed like just last week, Julius Peppers was all over the Vikings backfield causing all kind of problems for Brett Farve and the Minnesota Coaching staff. What a way to get the headlines except by doing the same thing to Eli Manning. WAR says it defense and creating T.O.'s and that exactly what Carolina has been doing. New York, averaging 38.0 points and 412.0 yards during its last three games, will face a Panthers defense that’s totaled eight interceptions and five fumbles over the last four contests. And the Panthers may have an answer to their offense. The Giants will have to find an answer for Matt Moore, who had career highs with 299 passing yards and three TDs against the Vikings. He found Steve Smith nine times for 157 yards, including the go-ahead, fourth-quarter score. Moore will make his third consecutive start for Carolina. Look for a rejuvenated Panthers team to "play spoiler" and with no pressure on them get the upset in New York. Take Carolina as a WAR Billionaires Club release.
DOG OF THE MONTH
NY Jets Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Take: NY Jets Jets
Rex Ryan watched Colts tapes all week searching for flaws. His conclusion: To beat the NFL’s last perfect team, it will take, well, the perfect game. “Obviously, you can’t afford any mental mistakes against this offense. Indy coach Jim Caldwell has been noncommittal about if, or how long, his starters will play Sunday. Caldwell said that will be determined in large part by injuries, reiterating what he said last week. Manning should start, as he has done in all 190 regular-season games since joining the Colts, but could exit after a series or two—or after he and his teammates attain individual goals, as has happened in the past. Caldwell doesn’t intend to let numbers impact his decisions. The Jets do have a formula that can beat Indy. They lead the NFL in rushing. And the New York Jets have a dream defense on paper, a unit that’s ranked No. 1 overall in the league and has piled up some gaudy stats. The Jets could actually provide a stiff test for the Colts’ offense. Among the many categories New York leads the league in are pass defense, yards allowed, offensive points allowed, yards per play and scoring drives. One would think that would add up to a team fighting for a No. 1 overall seed, not for its playoff life. The reality is the Jets do have a terrific defense, one that has the talent to be even better. A big performance against the Colts—and a win—could go a long way in them earning the respect they desire. WAR says this respect will be garnered with a Jets victory and has made the Jets his Millionaires Club underdog game of the month!!
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Take: Washington Redskins
It's no secret that WAR is big on defense. He starts with teams that can make a stop. The Redskin team currently has a decent defense ...for a horrible team. The Washington Redskins haven’t had much to hang their helmets on during what has been a dysfunctional season at best.The defense was one of the few bright spots. The Redskins defense has been ranked in the top 10 seven times this decade and the players want it to be there again this year. They are currently ninth in the NFL. “Staying focused the whole year is the key, whether you are the No. 1 defense or far down. I think we just are losing our focus a little bit.” But there's no better way to get recharged and refocused than a game against a bitter rival...that being the Dallas Cowboys...on National TV. With closing games against two red-hot offenses, home this week against Dallas followed by a road trip to San Diego, the Redskins will need to summon up their early season form to remain in the top 10 defensively. This is the 100th meeting between these 2 teams with both playoff meetings won by the Redskins. Emotionally, players and fans say there’s nothing like it, especially in Washington, where the rivalry has always been taken more seriously than in Dallas. WAR thinks the Redskins are up for their season average of allowing around 20 points and that will be enough defense to have the Skins cover the pointspread. This is WAR's No Limit selection taking the Redskins.
Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants Giants
Take: Carolina Panthers
The New York Giants need help to reach the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. But the Carolina Panthers may be the team to destroy that dream. It seemed like just last week, Julius Peppers was all over the Vikings backfield causing all kind of problems for Brett Farve and the Minnesota Coaching staff. What a way to get the headlines except by doing the same thing to Eli Manning. WAR says it defense and creating T.O.'s and that exactly what Carolina has been doing. New York, averaging 38.0 points and 412.0 yards during its last three games, will face a Panthers defense that’s totaled eight interceptions and five fumbles over the last four contests. And the Panthers may have an answer to their offense. The Giants will have to find an answer for Matt Moore, who had career highs with 299 passing yards and three TDs against the Vikings. He found Steve Smith nine times for 157 yards, including the go-ahead, fourth-quarter score. Moore will make his third consecutive start for Carolina. Look for a rejuvenated Panthers team to "play spoiler" and with no pressure on them get the upset in New York. Take Carolina as a WAR Billionaires Club release.
DOG OF THE MONTH
NY Jets Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Take: NY Jets Jets
Rex Ryan watched Colts tapes all week searching for flaws. His conclusion: To beat the NFL’s last perfect team, it will take, well, the perfect game. “Obviously, you can’t afford any mental mistakes against this offense. Indy coach Jim Caldwell has been noncommittal about if, or how long, his starters will play Sunday. Caldwell said that will be determined in large part by injuries, reiterating what he said last week. Manning should start, as he has done in all 190 regular-season games since joining the Colts, but could exit after a series or two—or after he and his teammates attain individual goals, as has happened in the past. Caldwell doesn’t intend to let numbers impact his decisions. The Jets do have a formula that can beat Indy. They lead the NFL in rushing. And the New York Jets have a dream defense on paper, a unit that’s ranked No. 1 overall in the league and has piled up some gaudy stats. The Jets could actually provide a stiff test for the Colts’ offense. Among the many categories New York leads the league in are pass defense, yards allowed, offensive points allowed, yards per play and scoring drives. One would think that would add up to a team fighting for a No. 1 overall seed, not for its playoff life. The reality is the Jets do have a terrific defense, one that has the talent to be even better. A big performance against the Colts—and a win—could go a long way in them earning the respect they desire. WAR says this respect will be garnered with a Jets victory and has made the Jets his Millionaires Club underdog game of the month!!
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Take: Washington Redskins
It's no secret that WAR is big on defense. He starts with teams that can make a stop. The Redskin team currently has a decent defense ...for a horrible team. The Washington Redskins haven’t had much to hang their helmets on during what has been a dysfunctional season at best.The defense was one of the few bright spots. The Redskins defense has been ranked in the top 10 seven times this decade and the players want it to be there again this year. They are currently ninth in the NFL. “Staying focused the whole year is the key, whether you are the No. 1 defense or far down. I think we just are losing our focus a little bit.” But there's no better way to get recharged and refocused than a game against a bitter rival...that being the Dallas Cowboys...on National TV. With closing games against two red-hot offenses, home this week against Dallas followed by a road trip to San Diego, the Redskins will need to summon up their early season form to remain in the top 10 defensively. This is the 100th meeting between these 2 teams with both playoff meetings won by the Redskins. Emotionally, players and fans say there’s nothing like it, especially in Washington, where the rivalry has always been taken more seriously than in Dallas. WAR thinks the Redskins are up for their season average of allowing around 20 points and that will be enough defense to have the Skins cover the pointspread. This is WAR's No Limit selection taking the Redskins.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH –3 +1.07 over Baltimore
The Steelers still don’t appear to have its swagger back and everyone is calling them lucky to have won last week in that bizarre sequence towards the end of the fourth quarter against Green Bay. However, a win is a win is a win and it’s just what the Steelers needed. The Ravens are considered to be a good team and one that could go a long way in the playoffs should they get there. If the season ended today they would be a #5 seed and they do control its own destiny. But more than that is this opponent and its 8-6 record, which is worth taking a close look at. Over its last seven games the Ravens are 4-3 with wins over Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago and these same Steelers in OT. If you recall that OT win came against the Steelers was in Baltimore no less and the Steelers were minus Ben Roethlisberger and a slew of other key players (the Ravens were an 11-point favorite). Baltimore’s three losses were against Indy, Green Bay and Cincinnati. The Ravens other three losses on the year were to Cincinnati (again), New England and Minnesota. In reality, they have one good win this season and that came in week 2 in San Diego but the Chargers were off to its traditional slow start. They really don’t have a signature win all season long but have had about six chances to do so and failed each time. The Ravens are imposters and while the Steelers have had its own trouble and a few disturbing losses to go with it, they really showed some life last week against one of the league’s hottest teams. Expect that to carry over as the Steelers make a desperate push towards making the post-season. This time they’ll have Big Ben. Play: Pittsburgh –3 +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
NY Jets +5½ over INDIANAPOLIS
Let’s see if I have this straight, shall we? The Colts are undefeated in the past 23 regular season games. They clinched home field throughout and that was prior to last week’s game against the Jags. Yet, and despite that, Peyton Manning and company played like a playoff spot was up for grabs. The Jags pressed them all game yet the Colts just kept coming and it was the first time in a month they’ve broken a sweat. The Colts last two home games were both double-digit wins over contenders Denver and Tennessee. Meanwhile the Jets lost as a 6½-point favorite at home last week to the Falcons. The Jets last two wins have come against Tampa Bay and Buffalo. They had lost six of seven before a win over the then reeling Panthers. Furthermore, the Jets playoff hopes are hanging by a thread at best. In fact, heading into the final week in Cincinnati, Gang Green is going to need a lot of help from other folks this week that include a Jacksonville loss at New England, a Miami loss to visiting Houston and a Baltimore loss at Pittsburgh OR Denver loss at Philadelphia. Plus, they have to win this one and that’s just to have a chance. So, the question now becomes why oh why did the books make the Colts such a small favorite? Are you kidding me? The Colts should be at least a –7 and had the books made them a 7-point favorite they wouldn’t have swayed a single bet. This line will rise to –6 or –6½ as the game approaches so wait until then if you’re on board. I’m waiting and I’ll update it Sunday morning to let you know what price we got. The point is, this one smells like a total rat and the books are absolutely trying to entice Colts money. This is a QB mismatch, the Colts are at home, they haven’t lost a regular season game in about 10 years, Manning and everyone else is playing, they were a 3-point favorite on the road last week in Jacksonville and now they’re an awfully small 5½-point choice at home. If that doesn’t smell funny, nothing does. Even if you can’t pull the trigger on the Jets, I urge you not to do it on the Colts either. The trap has been set; don’t spring it. Play: NY Jets +5½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Jacksonville +8 over NEW ENGLAND
This line is so out of whack it’s not even funny. If you make one bet this week make it this one, as these Patriots are struggling miserably to not only win but to score and/or defend. In fact, they really don’t have the ability to defend and as the season wears on and these older players get more banged up and fatigued they also become a lot less effective. The Pat won in Buffalo last week 17-10 but that score is flattering to New England, as they were the second best team on the field. The week before they were tooth and nails at home to beat Carolina with Moore at QB and that 20-10 score was also flattering, as it looked like the Panthers were going to win outright. Prior to that they had dropped three of four. Fact is, the Pats have not been able to stop an efficient offense all season long and the Jags certainly qualify. They have a well-balanced attack and a great running game. They’ve also had 10 days to prepare after that near upset over the Colts and this late in the season that’s a big edge. New England is a fraction of the team they once were and they’re simply not feared anymore and nor should they be, as they’ve become as mediocre and unreliable as about 20 other teams in this league. Play: Jacksonville +8 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
PITTSBURGH –3 +1.07 over Baltimore
The Steelers still don’t appear to have its swagger back and everyone is calling them lucky to have won last week in that bizarre sequence towards the end of the fourth quarter against Green Bay. However, a win is a win is a win and it’s just what the Steelers needed. The Ravens are considered to be a good team and one that could go a long way in the playoffs should they get there. If the season ended today they would be a #5 seed and they do control its own destiny. But more than that is this opponent and its 8-6 record, which is worth taking a close look at. Over its last seven games the Ravens are 4-3 with wins over Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago and these same Steelers in OT. If you recall that OT win came against the Steelers was in Baltimore no less and the Steelers were minus Ben Roethlisberger and a slew of other key players (the Ravens were an 11-point favorite). Baltimore’s three losses were against Indy, Green Bay and Cincinnati. The Ravens other three losses on the year were to Cincinnati (again), New England and Minnesota. In reality, they have one good win this season and that came in week 2 in San Diego but the Chargers were off to its traditional slow start. They really don’t have a signature win all season long but have had about six chances to do so and failed each time. The Ravens are imposters and while the Steelers have had its own trouble and a few disturbing losses to go with it, they really showed some life last week against one of the league’s hottest teams. Expect that to carry over as the Steelers make a desperate push towards making the post-season. This time they’ll have Big Ben. Play: Pittsburgh –3 +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
NY Jets +5½ over INDIANAPOLIS
Let’s see if I have this straight, shall we? The Colts are undefeated in the past 23 regular season games. They clinched home field throughout and that was prior to last week’s game against the Jags. Yet, and despite that, Peyton Manning and company played like a playoff spot was up for grabs. The Jags pressed them all game yet the Colts just kept coming and it was the first time in a month they’ve broken a sweat. The Colts last two home games were both double-digit wins over contenders Denver and Tennessee. Meanwhile the Jets lost as a 6½-point favorite at home last week to the Falcons. The Jets last two wins have come against Tampa Bay and Buffalo. They had lost six of seven before a win over the then reeling Panthers. Furthermore, the Jets playoff hopes are hanging by a thread at best. In fact, heading into the final week in Cincinnati, Gang Green is going to need a lot of help from other folks this week that include a Jacksonville loss at New England, a Miami loss to visiting Houston and a Baltimore loss at Pittsburgh OR Denver loss at Philadelphia. Plus, they have to win this one and that’s just to have a chance. So, the question now becomes why oh why did the books make the Colts such a small favorite? Are you kidding me? The Colts should be at least a –7 and had the books made them a 7-point favorite they wouldn’t have swayed a single bet. This line will rise to –6 or –6½ as the game approaches so wait until then if you’re on board. I’m waiting and I’ll update it Sunday morning to let you know what price we got. The point is, this one smells like a total rat and the books are absolutely trying to entice Colts money. This is a QB mismatch, the Colts are at home, they haven’t lost a regular season game in about 10 years, Manning and everyone else is playing, they were a 3-point favorite on the road last week in Jacksonville and now they’re an awfully small 5½-point choice at home. If that doesn’t smell funny, nothing does. Even if you can’t pull the trigger on the Jets, I urge you not to do it on the Colts either. The trap has been set; don’t spring it. Play: NY Jets +5½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Jacksonville +8 over NEW ENGLAND
This line is so out of whack it’s not even funny. If you make one bet this week make it this one, as these Patriots are struggling miserably to not only win but to score and/or defend. In fact, they really don’t have the ability to defend and as the season wears on and these older players get more banged up and fatigued they also become a lot less effective. The Pat won in Buffalo last week 17-10 but that score is flattering to New England, as they were the second best team on the field. The week before they were tooth and nails at home to beat Carolina with Moore at QB and that 20-10 score was also flattering, as it looked like the Panthers were going to win outright. Prior to that they had dropped three of four. Fact is, the Pats have not been able to stop an efficient offense all season long and the Jags certainly qualify. They have a well-balanced attack and a great running game. They’ve also had 10 days to prepare after that near upset over the Colts and this late in the season that’s a big edge. New England is a fraction of the team they once were and they’re simply not feared anymore and nor should they be, as they’ve become as mediocre and unreliable as about 20 other teams in this league. Play: Jacksonville +8 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Randall the Handle
Chiefs @ Bengals
We like what the Bengals have accomplished this season after most figured that they would continue to underachieve. What we don’t like is spotting points with them. Cincinnati has a bad habit of playing to its opponent’s level as evidenced by their uncanny 13-1 record for the underdog in their games. The Bengals have yet to cover as a fave and this price range makes it all the more unlikely. The Chiefs lost a whacky one to Cleveland last week but still managed to throw for more than 320 yards.TAKING: Kansas City +13½ RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
Broncos @ Eagles
Eagles ascending at right time of year but Donovan McNabb and Co. have been aided by a recent schedule that had them facing some of the weaker pass defences in the league. That won’t be the case here as the Broncos boast the 2nd best ranking at defending the pass. Both teams fighting for post-season positioning but Denver likely to have greater sense of urgency after allowing the Raiders to steal one from the last week. QB Kyle Orton has been solid on the road all season and should continue same here. TAKING: Denver +7 RISKING: 2.26 units to win 2
THE REST
Raiders @ Browns
Don’t expect the same kind of shootouts that the Browns enjoyed against equal caliber Lions and Chiefs. If nothing else, the Raiders can play defence while excelling on special teams. Raiders have won three of five against much superior opposition. TAKING: Oakland +3
Seahawks @ Packers
Seattle has lost 21 of its past 30 games. It has won just three of its past 15 road games with two of those victories occurring in St. Louis .. The Seahawks have been outscored by a 2:1 ratio when leaving their nest this season. Things won’t improve here TAKING: Green Bay –14
Bills @ Falcons
Brian Brohm will quarterback the Bills here and while he has yet to take a snap as a pro, we figure he can’t be much worse than what Buffalo has trotted out thus far. The Falcons are eliminated from post-season and don’t figure to pour it on. TAKING: Buffalo +9
Texans @ Dolphins
Just when you think the Texans have things figured out, they inevitably shoot themselves in the foot more blatantly than Plaxico Burress. Both squads remain eligible for playoff activity but Miami ’s more disciplined style will keep their hopes alive. TAKING: Miami –3
Panthers @ Giants
We’ve seen the Giants peak this time of year before and after last week’s complete effort and domination of the Redskins, we could similar effort here. Panthers neophyte QB Matt Moore looked good against Vikings last week but this setting offers much stiffer challenges. TAKING: NY Giants –7
Buccaneers @ Saints
Saints can have a nice rest if they knock off these Bucs and they should have no trouble doing so. New Orleans will be anxious to make amends after suffering first defeat while Tampa Bay will be travelling for fourth time in five weeks. TAKING: New Orleans –14
Jaguars @ Patriots
Patriots keeping it together despite limited roster. Jags offer enough challenges to keep New England honest and with Tom Brady’s recent reluctance to spread the field, this one could easily come down to the wire. TAKING: Jacksonville +8
Ravens @ Steelers
Can’t rely on Pittsburgh to defeat any team by any margin these days, especially a Ravens team that appears primed to make some noise heading into post-season. Baltimore won first meeting with defensive formula that can work again. TAKING: Baltimore +2 ½
Rams @ Arizona
Arizona has outside shot at #2 seed while seeking to redeem itself in front of home fans that haven’t forgotten debacle two weeks ago versus Niners. Rams continue to underwhelm with just one win in past 24 games. TAKING: Arizona –14
Lions @ 49ers
The Lions have now lost 19 straight on road, including all seven this season. Each of this year’s defeats have been by double digits. While we’re not anxious to be giving away this many with sub .500 San Francisco squad, it is preferred to alternative. TAKING: San Francisco –11 ½
Cowboys @ Redskins
Wonder which version of each team shows up here? Let’s go with the ‘good’ Dallas squad over the battered and surrendering Washington group. Jim Zorn is a dead man strolling while Cowboys should feed off win over Saints. TAKING: Dallas –6 ½
Jets @ Colts
While their coach didn’t realize that they are still mathematically alive for a wildcard spot, the Jets playoff aspirations are flickering at best. Colts can play at half speed and still cover against this meager visitor. Indy rests starters only when this one is well in hand. TAKING: Indianapolis –5 ½
Vikings @ Bears
Brett Favre’s diva ways resurfacing but may not matter against this woeful opponent. Bears have tossed in the towel and have covered just one game since mid-October. Minnesota can’t let up with Eagles chasing them for #2 spot. TAKING: Minnesota –7
Chiefs @ Bengals
We like what the Bengals have accomplished this season after most figured that they would continue to underachieve. What we don’t like is spotting points with them. Cincinnati has a bad habit of playing to its opponent’s level as evidenced by their uncanny 13-1 record for the underdog in their games. The Bengals have yet to cover as a fave and this price range makes it all the more unlikely. The Chiefs lost a whacky one to Cleveland last week but still managed to throw for more than 320 yards.TAKING: Kansas City +13½ RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
Broncos @ Eagles
Eagles ascending at right time of year but Donovan McNabb and Co. have been aided by a recent schedule that had them facing some of the weaker pass defences in the league. That won’t be the case here as the Broncos boast the 2nd best ranking at defending the pass. Both teams fighting for post-season positioning but Denver likely to have greater sense of urgency after allowing the Raiders to steal one from the last week. QB Kyle Orton has been solid on the road all season and should continue same here. TAKING: Denver +7 RISKING: 2.26 units to win 2
THE REST
Raiders @ Browns
Don’t expect the same kind of shootouts that the Browns enjoyed against equal caliber Lions and Chiefs. If nothing else, the Raiders can play defence while excelling on special teams. Raiders have won three of five against much superior opposition. TAKING: Oakland +3
Seahawks @ Packers
Seattle has lost 21 of its past 30 games. It has won just three of its past 15 road games with two of those victories occurring in St. Louis .. The Seahawks have been outscored by a 2:1 ratio when leaving their nest this season. Things won’t improve here TAKING: Green Bay –14
Bills @ Falcons
Brian Brohm will quarterback the Bills here and while he has yet to take a snap as a pro, we figure he can’t be much worse than what Buffalo has trotted out thus far. The Falcons are eliminated from post-season and don’t figure to pour it on. TAKING: Buffalo +9
Texans @ Dolphins
Just when you think the Texans have things figured out, they inevitably shoot themselves in the foot more blatantly than Plaxico Burress. Both squads remain eligible for playoff activity but Miami ’s more disciplined style will keep their hopes alive. TAKING: Miami –3
Panthers @ Giants
We’ve seen the Giants peak this time of year before and after last week’s complete effort and domination of the Redskins, we could similar effort here. Panthers neophyte QB Matt Moore looked good against Vikings last week but this setting offers much stiffer challenges. TAKING: NY Giants –7
Buccaneers @ Saints
Saints can have a nice rest if they knock off these Bucs and they should have no trouble doing so. New Orleans will be anxious to make amends after suffering first defeat while Tampa Bay will be travelling for fourth time in five weeks. TAKING: New Orleans –14
Jaguars @ Patriots
Patriots keeping it together despite limited roster. Jags offer enough challenges to keep New England honest and with Tom Brady’s recent reluctance to spread the field, this one could easily come down to the wire. TAKING: Jacksonville +8
Ravens @ Steelers
Can’t rely on Pittsburgh to defeat any team by any margin these days, especially a Ravens team that appears primed to make some noise heading into post-season. Baltimore won first meeting with defensive formula that can work again. TAKING: Baltimore +2 ½
Rams @ Arizona
Arizona has outside shot at #2 seed while seeking to redeem itself in front of home fans that haven’t forgotten debacle two weeks ago versus Niners. Rams continue to underwhelm with just one win in past 24 games. TAKING: Arizona –14
Lions @ 49ers
The Lions have now lost 19 straight on road, including all seven this season. Each of this year’s defeats have been by double digits. While we’re not anxious to be giving away this many with sub .500 San Francisco squad, it is preferred to alternative. TAKING: San Francisco –11 ½
Cowboys @ Redskins
Wonder which version of each team shows up here? Let’s go with the ‘good’ Dallas squad over the battered and surrendering Washington group. Jim Zorn is a dead man strolling while Cowboys should feed off win over Saints. TAKING: Dallas –6 ½
Jets @ Colts
While their coach didn’t realize that they are still mathematically alive for a wildcard spot, the Jets playoff aspirations are flickering at best. Colts can play at half speed and still cover against this meager visitor. Indy rests starters only when this one is well in hand. TAKING: Indianapolis –5 ½
Vikings @ Bears
Brett Favre’s diva ways resurfacing but may not matter against this woeful opponent. Bears have tossed in the towel and have covered just one game since mid-October. Minnesota can’t let up with Eagles chasing them for #2 spot. TAKING: Minnesota –7
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Seattle (5-9 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (9-5, 9-4-1 ATS)
The Packers, looking to solidify their wild-card spot in the NFC playoffs, return home from a two-game road swing to face the struggling Seahawks at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay lost a wild contest at Pittsburgh 37-36 last Sunday on a Ben Roethlisberger TD pass as time expired, ending the Packers’ five-game SU run. But the Packers cashed as a 2½-point pup, moving to 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. Green Bay is putting up 378.8 ypg (fifth) and 27.1 ppg (seventh), and over the last six games, QB Aaron Rodgers has tossed 12 TDs against just two INTs – and both picks came in a 27-14 win over Baltimore.
Seattle got drubbed for the second straight week, this time at home by one of the worst teams in the league in a 24-7 loss to Tampa Bay as a 6½-point favorite, following a 34-7 beatdown at Houston as a seven-point pup. The Seahawks are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games, getting held to 20 points or less five times in that stretch, and they are averaging just 18.4 ppg (22nd) while allowing 23.2 ppg (23rd).
Green Bay has won and covered the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-17 road decision catching one point in October of last season. Nine months earlier in the divisional playoffs, the Pack rumbled to a 42-20 blowout home as a nine-point chalk. Green Bay is 2-0-2 ATS in the last four clashes.
The Packers are just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 as a home chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including the aforementioned 5-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 laying points, 3-0-1 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 in December. On the flip side, the Seahawks are on ATS dives of 4-9 overall, 1-7 in roadies, 0-8 catching points on the road, 0-6 against winning teams and 3-7 in conference action.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 23-7 after a spread-cover, 21-8-1 against NFC opponents, 12-5 as a home chalk and a lengthy 47-23-2 against losing teams. And in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1). However, Seattle is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall and 4-1-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Oakland (5-9, 7-7 ATS) at Cleveland (3-11, 8-6 ATS)
The Browns pursue a surprising third straight victory when they play host to the Raiders, who have posted three big upsets in the past five weeks.
Cleveland outlasted Kansas City 41-34 Sunday in a shootout as a one-point road pup, winning SU for the second week in a row and cashing for the fifth straight week. Despite the Browns’ recent uptick, they are still 30th in the league in scoring (14.2 ppg) and 31st in total yards (255.8 ypg), and their turnover margin of minus-14 is the worst in the league.
QB Brady Quinn (right foot) is done for the season, so Derek Anderson will return to the starting role for Cleveland.
Oakland shocked Denver with a last-minute TD to claim a 20-19 road win as an overwhelming 13½-point ‘dog – two weeks after a road upset of Pittsburgh, and four weeks after a home win over first-place Cincinnati. However, the Raiders have been inconsistent at best all year, following up all four of their previous wins with double-digit losses (0-4 ATS). Oakland remains dead last in total offense (253.1 ypg) and 31st in scoring (12.5 ppg).
These teams have met five times this decade, with Cleveland covering in the last four (3-1 SU). Most recently, Oakland won 26-24, but fell short as a three-point home favorite in 2007. The SU winner is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
Along with their current 5-0 ATS surge, the Browns are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 against the AFC, 10-4 against losing teams and 9-4 following a SU win, but they are also in an 0-4 ATS rut in the rare role of favorite, and they’ve gone just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Raiders have cashed in four of their last five in conference action, though they are on ATS declines of 0-5 after a spread-cover, 0-4 after a SU win, 4-20-2 as a pup of three points or less, 16-37-1 against losing teams and 18-38 in December.
Cleveland is on “under” stretches of 8-2 against losing teams, 7-2 laying points, 12-4 as a home chalk and 10-3-1 in December, and the under for Oakland is on streaks of 5-1-1 against losing teams and 9-3 with the Raiders getting three points or less. However, the over for Tom Cable’s troops is on runs of 4-1 overall (all as a pup), 4-0 in December and 7-3 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) at Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS)
The Bengals will try to snap a two-game skid and clinch the AFC North crown when they tackle the lowly Chiefs at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati, playing three days after the death of wideout Chris Henry, gave San Diego all it could handle before losing 27-24, giving up a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds. But the Bengals covered as a 6½-point road pup, snapping a four-game ATS skid (2-2 SU). Cincy’s defense rates fifth in yards allowed (300.5) and is tied for third in points allowed (17.4 ppg), helping compensate for a mediocre offense that’s netting just 20.6 ppg (17th).
Kansas City has dropped four in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 41-34 home loss to Cleveland as a one-point chalk. It was the Chiefs’ highest scoring output of the season, but they are still averaging just 17.1 ppg (26th), having been held to 16 points or less nine times. Plus, K.C.’s defense is giving up the second-most points in the NFL (27.4 ppg).
These teams met in the regular-season finale last year, also in Cincinnati, with the Bengals winning 16-6 as a three-point favorite. In fact, they’ve met each of the past four seasons, alternating SU and ATS wins, with the SU winner going 4-0 ATS. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The underdog has covered in 13 of Cincy’s 14 games this year, and the Bengals come into this one on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 0-5 against losing teams and 7-20-1 as a favorite (0-4 as a home chalk), but they are on a 4-1 ATS upswing coming off a SU loss. The Chiefs are on a 9-2 ATS run as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, but they’re otherwise on a bevy of pointspread dives, including the aforementioned 0-4 overall, 0-5 in December, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after a non-cover and 4-9 following a SU loss.
Cincinnati is on a bundle of “under” tears, including 5-2 overall, 18-7-1 at home, 8-0 as a home favorite, 13-3 in December and 7-2-1 against losing teams, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry. Conversely, the over for Kansas City is on sprees of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 after a non-cover and 7-3-2 with the Chiefs a pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
Buffalo (5-9, 7-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (7-7, 9-5 ATS)
Two teams playing for nothing but pride get together when the Falcons face the Bills in a non-conference contest at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan hit tight end Tony Gonzalez with a short TD pass on fourth down to rally past the Jets 10-7 last week as a 5½-point road ‘dog, covering for the second straight week and ending what proved to be a season-killing 1-4 SU slide. The Falcons, who went 11-5 SU last year and reached the playoffs as a wild card, have numbers befitting tehir mediocre record, averaging 22.3 ppg (16th) and 332.8 ypg (18th), while allowing 22.3 ppg (20th) and 371.3 ypg (28th).
Buffalo lost to New England 17-10 Sunday at home to get a push as a seven-point home underdog. The Bills (3-1-1 ATS last five games) have now alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games. Buffalo is averaging a meager 16.1 ppg (28th), scoring less than that nine times this year, while averaging 271.5 ypg (30th).
In two meetings with Buffalo this decade, Atlanta is 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS, including a 24-16 road win getting three points in September 2005.
The Falcons are on pointspread runs of 5-2 at home, 4-1 as a Georgia Dome chalk and 4-0 giving 3½ to 10 points, though they’ve gone 1-4 ATS in their last five starts following a SU win. The Bills sport a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 8-2 in roadies, 6-2 as a road pup and 4-1 following a SU loss.
The under for Atlanta is on surges of 4-0 overall, 5-1 in December and 4-1 at the dome, and Buffalo is on “under” rolls of 8-2 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-1 on the highway and 6-2 with the Bills a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Houston (7-7, 6-7-1 ATS), at Miami (7-7, 8-6 ATS)
The Texans travel to LandShark Stadium to take on the Dolphins in a battle of two teams clinging by their fingernails to stay in the AFC postseason picture.
Houston barely held off a dismal St. Louis squad 16-13 Sunday, falling far short as a 14-point road chalk. The Texans have followed up a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) with back-to-back wins to remain alive in the wild-card race. QB Matt Schaub (25 TD passes, 13 INTs) paces the No. 2 passing offense (291.4 ypg), and the Texans average 377.4 total ypg (seventh) and 23.4 ppg (11th). The defense is fair, ranking 12th in total yards allowed (322.7 ypg) while giving up 20.4 ppg (14th).
Miami’s 4-1 SU run to get into playoff contention ended with a 27-24 overtime loss at Tennessee last week, though it cashed as a 4½-point ‘dog. The Dolphins, on a 3-0 ATS uptick, sport the NFL’s fourth-best running attack (148 ypg) for an offense netting 22.6 ppg (14th), but their defense rates 18th in total yards allowed (341.4 ypg) and 24th in points allowed (23.8 ppg). Miami also has a minus-7 turnover margin (25th).
These teams have met each of the last three years and four times overall dating to 2003, with Houston going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS. Miami covered in the past two meetings, including last year’s 29-28 loss as a three-point road pup. The visitor is 3-1 ATS in those four contests, and the underdog has cashed in all four games.
The Texans are in ATS ruts of 1-4 overall and 2-5-1 following a SU win, but they are on spread-covering rolls of 7-2 getting points, 6-1 as a road pup and 17-8 in December. The Dolphins are on ATS surges of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 7-1 within the AFC, but they are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games at Land Shark and 7-24 ATS in their last 31 as a favorite.
Houston is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 5-1 as a road pup, 7-1 in December and 9-2 after a SU win, and the under is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven December games. The over for Miami is on rolls of 5-1 at home, 11-4 following a SU loss and 4-0 with the Dolphins favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Carolina (6-8, 7-7) at N.Y. Giants (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS)
The Giants, scrambling to keep their playoff hopes alive, take on the upset-minded Panthers at the Meadowlands.
New York, on the outside looking in for the postseason at the moment, hammered Washington 45-12 Monday night as a three-point road chalk and has alternated SU wins and losses over its last six games (2-4 ATS). The Giants have a disparate defense, allowing just 306.8 ypg (seventh) but also giving up 24.4 ppg (26th). Prior to shutting down the Redskins on Monday, New York had allowed at least 21 points in nine straight games, with four of those teams scoring 30 or more. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is averaging 382.7 ypg (fifth) and 27.6 ppg (sixth).
Carolina upended Minnesota 26-7 as a heavy nine-point home underdog Sunday night to cover for the third straight week. The victory ended a string of four games in which the Panthers scored 17 points or less, but they still average just 17.9 ppg (24th) and 325.3 ypg (20th), while the defense allows 20.6 ppg (16th.) and 323.1 ypg (13th).
New York has won and covered in the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 34-28 overtime victory as a 3½-point home chalk last December, a game that decided the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs. The SU winner is 5-0 ATS in the last five clashes, and the chalk is on a 4-1 ATS run.
Despite Monday’s rout, the Giants remain on a handful of negative ATS streaks, including 2-7 overall, 1-5 laying points, 1-4 at home and 2-5 within the NFC, though they are also on pointspread upticks of 5-0 against losing teams, 4-1 in December, 19-7 after a SU win and 23-9 following a spread cover. The Panthers sport positive ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-0 against NFC foes, 5-1 as a pup and 4-1 on the road, and they are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 December games.
The over for New York is on tears of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in the NFC, 4-1 in December, 6-2-1 against losing teams and 5-2 at the Meadowlands. On the flip side, the under for Carolina is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 with the Panthers a road pup. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Tampa Bay (2-12, 5-9 ATS) at New Orleans (13-1, 8-6 ATS)
The Saints, looking to bounce back from their first loss of the year, take on the dismal division rival Buccaneers at the Superdome.
New Orleans’ rally came up short in a 24-17 Saturday night loss to Dallas as a 7½-point home favorite, ending the Saints’ chances at a perfect season while also giving them their third straight ATS setback. New Orleans, averaging 35.8 ppg prior to last week, failed to score at least 24 points for the first time all year. However, it still leads the NFL at 34.5 ppg and 419.6 ypg. The Saints lost the turnover battle 3-0 against the Cowboys, yet are still third in the league with a plus-13 margin.
Tampa Bay scored a dominating road upset last week for just its second win of the year, routing Seattle 24-7 catching 6½ points to end a five-game SU skid (2-3 ATS). Despite that scoring “outburst,” the Bucs are still averaging just 15.3 ppg and 282.5 ypg, rating 29th in the league in both categories, while giving up 25.9 ppg (29th) and 365.4 ypg (26th).
New Orleans is on a 3-0 ATS surge in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 38-7 blowout as a 10½-point home chalk on Nov. 22, giving the SU winner a 5-1 ATS mark in the last six clashes. However, Tampa is 5-1 ATS on its last six trips to the dome, and the road team is on a 10-3 ATS tear in the last 13 matchups.
The Saints have struggled at the betting window lately, shouldering negative ATS streaks of 2-6 overall (all as a chalk), 0-4 in December, 1-6 inside the conference and 1-4 in the NFC South. However, they’ve been an excellent bounce-back team, going 11-1 ATS in their last dozen following a SU loss, and they are on a 7-3 ATS run as a home chalk.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is on ATS purges of 5-11 overall, 1-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 in December and 2-5 in division play, and the Bucs are just 2-16 SU (6-12 ATS) in their last 18 games, dating to last season.
New Orleans has stayed under the total in four of its last five (all as a favorite), but it remains on “over” runs of 10-3 in December, 14-5-1 in the Big Easy and 19-7-1 in NFC action. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last eight meetings. Conversely, the under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a pup), 4-1 in the NFC South and 9-3 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Jacksonville (7-7, 5-9 ATS) at New England (9-5, 6-7-1 ATS)
The Patriots aim to wrap up the AFC East and stay in contention for the No. 3 seed when they meet the Jaguars at Gillette Stadium.
New England topped Buffalo 17-10 to get a push as a seven-point road chalk Sunday, winning for the second straight week while ending a three-game ATS hiccup. The Patriots are still eighth in the league in scoring (26.1 ppg), but they’ve put up 21 points or less in four straight games, after scoring 25 or more in eight of their first 10 outings. New England is No. 2 in total offense (398.3 ypg), and the defense allows 314.9 ypg (10th) and just 17.4 ppg (tied for third).
Jacksonville is on an untimely two-game SU and ATS skid, though it still harbors the best playoff hopes among the six AFC teams tied at 7-7. In a Thursday night home shootout last week with unbeaten Indianapolis, the Jags lost 35-31 as a 3½-point ‘dog, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four starts. Jacksonville is averaging 341.6 ypg (15th) and netting just 19 ppg (21st).
New England has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 31-20 divisional playoff victory two seasons ago, though Jacksonville covered as a 13½-point road pup. The Pats are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run.
The Patriots are on ATS upswings of 34-16-1 laying 3½ to 10 points and 4-0 at home as a chalk of the same price. The Jaguars are on several pointspread skids, including 2-8 overall, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-4 in December, 3-8 after a SU loss, 2-5 after a non-cover and 2-5 in the AFC.
New England is on “under” streaks of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 in December, 5-0-1 laying points, 5-1 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Similarly, Jacksonville is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 in roadies, 8-2 as a road pup and 6-2 in December, though the over for the Jags is on upturns of 5-1 after a SU loss and 13-5-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Baltimore (8-6 SU and ATS) at Pittsburgh (7-7, 4-10 ATS)
The Ravens make the trip to Heinz Field to meet the bitter rival Steelers, with both participants in last year’s AFC title game fighting to gain a spot in the AFC playoffs this time around.
Baltimore has posted two straight blowout home wins the past two weeks, albeit against Detroit and Chicago, respectively. On Sunday, the Ravens rolled 31-7 as a 10½-point favorite, following a 48-3 beatdown of the Lions laying 14 points. After five straight games of scoring 20 points or less, Baltimore has its offense back on track and is averaging 25 ppg for the year (ninth), while allowing just 16.1 ppg, second only to the Jets’ 15.8 ppg.
Pittsburgh outlasted Green Bay 37-36 as a 2½-point home chalk on a Ben Roethlisberger-to-Mike Wallace TD pass as time expired. It was a win the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers desperately needed after an 0-5 SU freefall, though they failed to cover for the third straight week. Roethlisberger threw for an outrageous career-best 503 yards, going 29 of 46 with three TDs and no INTs.
This matchup features two of the league’s better defenses, with Baltimore yielding 299.8 ypg (fourth) and Pittsburgh allowing 304.2 ypg (sixth). Four weeks ago, the Ravens edged the Steelers 20-17 in overtime, going off as a nine-point chalk due to Roethlisberger sitting out with concussion symptoms.
The Steelers have covered the last three in this rivalry, including a 23-14 home win giving six points in the AFC title game last year. The underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run in the last five meetings.
The Ravens are on spread-covering surges of 19-9 overall, 6-1 as a road pup of up to three points, 4-1 in December and 13-6 after a spread-cover, but they’ve gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC North games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams, but they are otherwise on ATS dives of 1-5 overall, 0-5 laying points, 1-4 at home (all as a chalk), 3-13 giving three or less at Heinz, 1-4 in division play and 2-6 after a SU win.
The under for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in the AFC and 4-1 in the division, but the over is on an 8-2-1 tear with the Ravens a road ‘dog. Furthermore, the over for Pittsburgh is on a boatload of rolls, including 4-1 overall, 50-22-1 at home, 20-7 laying three points or less and 19-8 against AFC opposition. Finally, in this heated rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven clashes overall and five straight at Heinz Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (1-13, 7-7 ATS) at Arizona (9-5, 8-6 ATS)
The defending conference champion Cardinals, who have already clinched their second straight NFC West but who still have a shot at the No. 3 playoff seed, take on the lowly Rams at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Arizona held off another dismal team last week, beating Detroit 31-24 but coming up way short as an overwhelming 14-point chalk in failing to cash for the second straight game. The Cardinals, who have alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games, have 10 turnovers over their past two games (three last week) and are at a minus-8 margin for the season (26th). Still, they are 10th in the league in scoring at 24.1 ppg.
St. Louis gave Houston a scare Sunday, losing 16-13 as a hefty 14-point home underdog for its sixth consecutive SU loss (4-2 ATS). The Rams’ problem is an inability to score averaging a league-worst 11.4 ppg, and the effort against the Titans marked the eighth time they’ve been held to 13 points or less this season. The Rams are also allowing 26.9 ppg (30th).
Arizona has won six in a row against St. Louis (4-2 ATS), including a 21-13 road victory Nov. 22, though the Rams covered as a 9½-point pup to halt a 3-0 ATS run by the Cardinals in this rivalry. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the underdog is on a 9-3 ATS roll.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a chalk, but the ATS streaks turn upward from there, including 13-6 overall, 4-1 after a pointspread defeat and 7-3 at home. The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games (all as a pup) and are on a pair of 4-1 ATS runs – in conference play and in December – but they are on a 1-23 SU freefall (11-13 ATS), and they carry negative ATS streaks of 7-19 in the NFC West and 7-16 against winning teams.
In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings at Arizona. In addition, the under for the Cards is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in division action and 6-2 after a SU win, and the under for St. Louis is on runs of 5-1-1 in the division and 5-2 on the road. That said, the over is 14-5 in Arizona’s last 19 at home, 15-4 in its last 19 in December and 38-17 in the Cardinals’ last 55 games against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
Detroit (2-12, 4-9-1 ATS) at San Francisco (6-8, 8-4-2 ATS)
The 49ers, who have fallen apart since getting off to a 3-1 start, take on the woeful Lions at Candlestick Park in a meeting of two teams playing out the string.
San Francisco has alternated SU wins and losses over the past seven weeks (3-3-1 ATS), falling 27-13 at Philadelphia last week as a seven-point pup. The Niners have beaten the defending NFC champion Cardinals twice this year, and their defense is allowing just 19.2 ppg (eighth). But their offense is 28th in total yards (286.6 ypg) and tied for 18th in scoring (20.1 ppg).
Detroit rallied from a 17-0 deficit to give Arizona a game Sunday, ultimately losing 31-24 but covering as a heavy 14-point home ‘dog. The Lions have dropped four in a row (2-2 ATS), and their defense continues to be porous, allowing 31.2 ppg and 396.1 ypg, both the worst marks in the league. The offense is netting just 16.6 ppg (27th) and 296.1 ypg (25th). Dating to the middle of the 2007 season, Detroit is a meager 3-35 SU (12-25-1 ATS).
San Francisco is on a 6-0 SU tear in this rivalry (4-1-1 ATS), most recently rolling 31-13 at home as a five-point chalk in September 2008. The Niners are also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Candlestick.
The 49ers sport positive pointspread streaks of 11-5-3 overall, 5-0-2 after a non-cover, 6-1-1 following a SU loss, 7-2-1 at the ‘Stick and 16-7 laying more than 10 points, though they’ve also gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight against losing teams. The Lions are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 starts catching more than 10 points, but they are on numerous ATS slides, including 2-6-1 overall, 1-5-1 on the road (all as a pup) and 6-19-1 after a spread-cover.
San Francisco is on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 7-1 in December, 8-2 after a SU loss, 4-1 in NFC contests and 5-2 at home, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six straight meetings overall, with five of those contests played at Candlestick. Detroit, meanwhile, is on “over” rolls of 23-9 on the highway, 9-3 as a road ‘dog, 11-3 in December, 11-2-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (10-4, 9-5 ATS)
The streaking Eagles, who still have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, gear up for a non-conference contest with the inconsistent Broncos at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia dropped San Francisco 27-13 as a seven-point home chalk Sunday for its fifth consecutive SU victory (4-1 ATS). The Eagles, who can clinch the NFC East with a victory today, have scored 24 points or more in all five games, moving into the No. 2 slot in the NFL at 28.5 ppg for the year, behind only high-octane New Orleans (34.5 ppg). Philly forced four turnovers last week, an area that has been key all season, as the Eagles now hold a turnover margin of plus-17, one behind league-leading Green Bay.
Denver imploded against Oakland last week, giving up a last-minute TD in a 20-19 home loss as an overwhelming 14-point favorite to severely hamper its playoff prospects. The Broncos have had one of the better defenses in the league all year, allowing 294.4 ypg (third) and 17.9 ppg (tied for sixth), but their offense hasn’t taken advantage. Against Oakland, Denver (19.6 ppg) settled for four field goals, blowing a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line late in the game.
These teams have met just once this decade, with Denver plowing to a 49-21 rout as a four-point home chalk in October 2005.
The Eagles are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall (all as a favorite), 4-0 in December, 7-3 at home and 6-2 laying points at the Linc. On the flip side, the Broncos are on ATS purges of 2-6 overall, 1-4 getting points, 1-6 in December, 1-6 after a SU loss and 8-24 after a pointspread setback. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 17 straight Denver games.
The over for Philadelphia is on streaks of 8-2-1 at home, 6-2-1 with the Eagles a home chalk and 5-2 against winning teams, and the over for Denver is on rolls of 5-0 in December, 4-1 on the road, 16-6-2 after a SU loss and 20-8-2 after a non-cover. However, the under for the Broncos is on a 6-1 stretch against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
N.Y. Jets (7-7 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (14-0, 10-4 ATS)
The Colts aim to continue their run toward a perfect season with a Lucas Oil Stadium contest against the Jets, who must win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Indianapolis edged Jacksonville 35-31 as a 3½-point road favorite in the Thursday contest last week, with the winning score coming on a 65-yard TD pass from Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne. The Colts, who have cashed in five straight games, are fourth in the NFL in total offense (383.3 ypg) and fifth in scoring (28.1 ppg). Manning leads the league with 4,213 passing yards, and he’s tied with Drew Brees atop the TD passing list with 33 (15 INTs). Indy is also fifth in scoring defense (17.7 ppg).
New York hindered its bid to make the playoffs with a 10-7 home loss to Atlanta on Sunday as a 5½-point chalk, ending a three-game SU and ATS surge. The Jets field the No. 1 total defense (262.8 ypg) and the No. 1 scoring defense (15.8 ppg), and they have the NFL’s top rushing attack (164.1 ypg). However, they are just 18th in scoring (20.1 ppg), and rookie QB Mark Sanchez has 20 INTs on the year, against just 12 TDs.
These teams last met in October 2006, with Indianapolis winning 31-28 on the road, and New York covering as a 7½-point pup. Indy is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with the Jets, the home team is on a 7-2-2 ATS roll, and the favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine clashes. Also, the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Colts have won 23 consecutive regular-season games, going 15-8 ATS in that stretch, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five December starts. Their current 5-0 ATS run has all come from the favorite’s role. The Jets are on a 7-3 ATS spurt as a road ‘dog, but they are on ATS skids of 1-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 2-6 in December and 2-5 within the AFC.
In addition, the SU winner has covered in New York’s last 16 games, dating to last December.
New York is on a bundle of “under” runs, including 4-0-1 overall, 6-2-1 on the highway, 3-0-1 as a pup, 3-0-1 against winning teams and 20-8-2 in December. But in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1).
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS) at Washington (4-10, 7-7 ATS)
The Cowboys, who control their playoff destiny and still have a shot at the NFC East title, travel to FedEx Field for a division battle with the reeling Redskins.
Dallas dealt New Orleans its first loss of the year, posting a 24-17 road victory last Saturday as a 7½-point underdog for just its fifth SU win and third ATS win in its last 15 December games. The Cowboys sport the third-most-productive offense in the league, at 394.5 ypg, though they’ve generated just 22.9 ppg (12th) from those yards. Defensively, the Pokes are middle-of-the pack in allowing 329.9 ypg (15th), but they’re giving up just 17.9 ppg (tied for sixth).
Coach Jim Zorn almost assuredly sealed his fate as the soon-to-be-ex Washington coach in a humiliating 45-12 Monday night loss to the Giants as a three-point home pup. Zorn called for a fake field out of a wild formation at the end of the first half, leading to an INT, and the Redskins had their five-game ATS winning streak snapped. Washington is averaging 317.9 ypg (23rd) and just 17.6 ppg (25th).
Dallas needed a late fourth-quarter TD to sneak out a sloppy 7-6 home victory over Washington five weeks ago, falling far short as an 11-point chalk. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) in the last nine clashes in this rivalry (5-1 ATS last six), and the underdog is on a 21-7 ATS spree. However, Dallas has gone 8-3 ATS on its last 11 trips to D.C., and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven starts against losing teams, but the ATS streaks head downward from there, including 3-12 in December, 4-9 on the road, 1-4 as a chalk and 0-4 as a road chalk. The Redskins have cashed in just three of their last 13 at FedEx, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 as a pup.
The under for Dallas is on tears of 6-1 overall, 4-1 in the NFC, 4-1 with the Pokes favored, 7-3 in December and a lengthy 49-23-3 against losing teams. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington. On the flip side, the Redskins are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-0 at home, 6-1 getting points, 6-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in the NFC East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
MUSIC CITY BOWL
(at Nashville, Tenn.)
Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Clemson (8-5 SU and ATS)
For the second time in four years, Kentucky and Clemson will face off at LP Field in Nashville in an ACC-SEC postseason matchup.
The Wildcats, who finished tied for fourth in the SEC’s East Division, won five of seven (4-3 ATS) down the stretch to qualify for this bowl but lost a hard-fought 30-27 overtime game to Tennessee in the finale, falling short as a three-point home ‘dog. Despite the 30 points allowed to Tennessee, Kentucky’s defense stepped up in the final seven weeks, limiting the opposition to 14 points or less four times.
The Tigers won the ACC’s Atlantic Division but came up short in the conference title game, losing 39-34 to Georgia Tech as a one-point underdog. Clemson rattled off six straight wins (5-1 ATS), scoring 34 points or more in each victory, before dropping their regular-season finale at South Carolina (34-17 as a three-point road favorite) and losing the ACC title game to Georgia Tech. The Tigers, who failed to cover in their last three games, scored 21 points or less in three of their final four defeats.
In the 2006 Music City Bowl, Kentucky scored a 28-20 victory over Clemson as an 11½-point underdog. Going back to 1985, the Wildcats are 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS) against the Tigers.
Kentucky ran its bowl winning streak to three with a 25-19 upset of East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl in January, getting the outright win as a three-point underdog. The four-straight bowl appearances are a record for the Wildcats, who hadn’t won a postseason game since 1984 when they upset Clemson in 2006.
The Tigers have lost three straight bowl games, including last year’s 26-21 setback to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl as a 2½-point favorite. Clemson’s last postseason victory was the 2005 Champ Sports Bowl, a 19-10 triumph over Colorado.
The Wildcats have struggled against the run this season, allowing 183.1 yards per game to rank 100th out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, and they’ll have their hands full trying to stop all-purpose back C.J. Spiller, who ranked fourth nationally in all-purpose yards with 194 per game and finished with a school-record 20 touchdowns. Spiller was Clemson’s first ACC Player of the Year since 1987 and he finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting.
Kentucky comes into this game on ATS runs of 3-0-1 on neutral fields, 9-2-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Clemson is on ATS slides of 1-6 against SEC teams, 0-5 in December games, 0-5 in neutral-site contests, 3-9 in non-conference games and 4-12 when coming off a non-cover.
The Wildcats are riding “over” streaks of 4-1 as an underdog, 16-5 against teams with winning records and 4-1 on natural grass. The Tigers have topped the total in five straight overall and four straight as a favorite, but Clemson is also on “under” stretches of 5-0 in bowl games, 7-3 against the SEC, 4-1 after a straight-up loss and 7-3 after a non-cover. Finally, then these two met in the 2006 Music City Bowl, the “under” rolled in with a 10-point cushion.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
Seattle (5-9 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (9-5, 9-4-1 ATS)
The Packers, looking to solidify their wild-card spot in the NFC playoffs, return home from a two-game road swing to face the struggling Seahawks at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay lost a wild contest at Pittsburgh 37-36 last Sunday on a Ben Roethlisberger TD pass as time expired, ending the Packers’ five-game SU run. But the Packers cashed as a 2½-point pup, moving to 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. Green Bay is putting up 378.8 ypg (fifth) and 27.1 ppg (seventh), and over the last six games, QB Aaron Rodgers has tossed 12 TDs against just two INTs – and both picks came in a 27-14 win over Baltimore.
Seattle got drubbed for the second straight week, this time at home by one of the worst teams in the league in a 24-7 loss to Tampa Bay as a 6½-point favorite, following a 34-7 beatdown at Houston as a seven-point pup. The Seahawks are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games, getting held to 20 points or less five times in that stretch, and they are averaging just 18.4 ppg (22nd) while allowing 23.2 ppg (23rd).
Green Bay has won and covered the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-17 road decision catching one point in October of last season. Nine months earlier in the divisional playoffs, the Pack rumbled to a 42-20 blowout home as a nine-point chalk. Green Bay is 2-0-2 ATS in the last four clashes.
The Packers are just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 as a home chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including the aforementioned 5-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 laying points, 3-0-1 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 in December. On the flip side, the Seahawks are on ATS dives of 4-9 overall, 1-7 in roadies, 0-8 catching points on the road, 0-6 against winning teams and 3-7 in conference action.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 23-7 after a spread-cover, 21-8-1 against NFC opponents, 12-5 as a home chalk and a lengthy 47-23-2 against losing teams. And in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1). However, Seattle is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall and 4-1-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Oakland (5-9, 7-7 ATS) at Cleveland (3-11, 8-6 ATS)
The Browns pursue a surprising third straight victory when they play host to the Raiders, who have posted three big upsets in the past five weeks.
Cleveland outlasted Kansas City 41-34 Sunday in a shootout as a one-point road pup, winning SU for the second week in a row and cashing for the fifth straight week. Despite the Browns’ recent uptick, they are still 30th in the league in scoring (14.2 ppg) and 31st in total yards (255.8 ypg), and their turnover margin of minus-14 is the worst in the league.
QB Brady Quinn (right foot) is done for the season, so Derek Anderson will return to the starting role for Cleveland.
Oakland shocked Denver with a last-minute TD to claim a 20-19 road win as an overwhelming 13½-point ‘dog – two weeks after a road upset of Pittsburgh, and four weeks after a home win over first-place Cincinnati. However, the Raiders have been inconsistent at best all year, following up all four of their previous wins with double-digit losses (0-4 ATS). Oakland remains dead last in total offense (253.1 ypg) and 31st in scoring (12.5 ppg).
These teams have met five times this decade, with Cleveland covering in the last four (3-1 SU). Most recently, Oakland won 26-24, but fell short as a three-point home favorite in 2007. The SU winner is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
Along with their current 5-0 ATS surge, the Browns are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 against the AFC, 10-4 against losing teams and 9-4 following a SU win, but they are also in an 0-4 ATS rut in the rare role of favorite, and they’ve gone just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Raiders have cashed in four of their last five in conference action, though they are on ATS declines of 0-5 after a spread-cover, 0-4 after a SU win, 4-20-2 as a pup of three points or less, 16-37-1 against losing teams and 18-38 in December.
Cleveland is on “under” stretches of 8-2 against losing teams, 7-2 laying points, 12-4 as a home chalk and 10-3-1 in December, and the under for Oakland is on streaks of 5-1-1 against losing teams and 9-3 with the Raiders getting three points or less. However, the over for Tom Cable’s troops is on runs of 4-1 overall (all as a pup), 4-0 in December and 7-3 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) at Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS)
The Bengals will try to snap a two-game skid and clinch the AFC North crown when they tackle the lowly Chiefs at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati, playing three days after the death of wideout Chris Henry, gave San Diego all it could handle before losing 27-24, giving up a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds. But the Bengals covered as a 6½-point road pup, snapping a four-game ATS skid (2-2 SU). Cincy’s defense rates fifth in yards allowed (300.5) and is tied for third in points allowed (17.4 ppg), helping compensate for a mediocre offense that’s netting just 20.6 ppg (17th).
Kansas City has dropped four in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 41-34 home loss to Cleveland as a one-point chalk. It was the Chiefs’ highest scoring output of the season, but they are still averaging just 17.1 ppg (26th), having been held to 16 points or less nine times. Plus, K.C.’s defense is giving up the second-most points in the NFL (27.4 ppg).
These teams met in the regular-season finale last year, also in Cincinnati, with the Bengals winning 16-6 as a three-point favorite. In fact, they’ve met each of the past four seasons, alternating SU and ATS wins, with the SU winner going 4-0 ATS. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The underdog has covered in 13 of Cincy’s 14 games this year, and the Bengals come into this one on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 0-5 against losing teams and 7-20-1 as a favorite (0-4 as a home chalk), but they are on a 4-1 ATS upswing coming off a SU loss. The Chiefs are on a 9-2 ATS run as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, but they’re otherwise on a bevy of pointspread dives, including the aforementioned 0-4 overall, 0-5 in December, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after a non-cover and 4-9 following a SU loss.
Cincinnati is on a bundle of “under” tears, including 5-2 overall, 18-7-1 at home, 8-0 as a home favorite, 13-3 in December and 7-2-1 against losing teams, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry. Conversely, the over for Kansas City is on sprees of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 after a non-cover and 7-3-2 with the Chiefs a pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
Buffalo (5-9, 7-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (7-7, 9-5 ATS)
Two teams playing for nothing but pride get together when the Falcons face the Bills in a non-conference contest at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan hit tight end Tony Gonzalez with a short TD pass on fourth down to rally past the Jets 10-7 last week as a 5½-point road ‘dog, covering for the second straight week and ending what proved to be a season-killing 1-4 SU slide. The Falcons, who went 11-5 SU last year and reached the playoffs as a wild card, have numbers befitting tehir mediocre record, averaging 22.3 ppg (16th) and 332.8 ypg (18th), while allowing 22.3 ppg (20th) and 371.3 ypg (28th).
Buffalo lost to New England 17-10 Sunday at home to get a push as a seven-point home underdog. The Bills (3-1-1 ATS last five games) have now alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games. Buffalo is averaging a meager 16.1 ppg (28th), scoring less than that nine times this year, while averaging 271.5 ypg (30th).
In two meetings with Buffalo this decade, Atlanta is 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS, including a 24-16 road win getting three points in September 2005.
The Falcons are on pointspread runs of 5-2 at home, 4-1 as a Georgia Dome chalk and 4-0 giving 3½ to 10 points, though they’ve gone 1-4 ATS in their last five starts following a SU win. The Bills sport a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 8-2 in roadies, 6-2 as a road pup and 4-1 following a SU loss.
The under for Atlanta is on surges of 4-0 overall, 5-1 in December and 4-1 at the dome, and Buffalo is on “under” rolls of 8-2 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-1 on the highway and 6-2 with the Bills a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Houston (7-7, 6-7-1 ATS), at Miami (7-7, 8-6 ATS)
The Texans travel to LandShark Stadium to take on the Dolphins in a battle of two teams clinging by their fingernails to stay in the AFC postseason picture.
Houston barely held off a dismal St. Louis squad 16-13 Sunday, falling far short as a 14-point road chalk. The Texans have followed up a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) with back-to-back wins to remain alive in the wild-card race. QB Matt Schaub (25 TD passes, 13 INTs) paces the No. 2 passing offense (291.4 ypg), and the Texans average 377.4 total ypg (seventh) and 23.4 ppg (11th). The defense is fair, ranking 12th in total yards allowed (322.7 ypg) while giving up 20.4 ppg (14th).
Miami’s 4-1 SU run to get into playoff contention ended with a 27-24 overtime loss at Tennessee last week, though it cashed as a 4½-point ‘dog. The Dolphins, on a 3-0 ATS uptick, sport the NFL’s fourth-best running attack (148 ypg) for an offense netting 22.6 ppg (14th), but their defense rates 18th in total yards allowed (341.4 ypg) and 24th in points allowed (23.8 ppg). Miami also has a minus-7 turnover margin (25th).
These teams have met each of the last three years and four times overall dating to 2003, with Houston going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS. Miami covered in the past two meetings, including last year’s 29-28 loss as a three-point road pup. The visitor is 3-1 ATS in those four contests, and the underdog has cashed in all four games.
The Texans are in ATS ruts of 1-4 overall and 2-5-1 following a SU win, but they are on spread-covering rolls of 7-2 getting points, 6-1 as a road pup and 17-8 in December. The Dolphins are on ATS surges of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 7-1 within the AFC, but they are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games at Land Shark and 7-24 ATS in their last 31 as a favorite.
Houston is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 5-1 as a road pup, 7-1 in December and 9-2 after a SU win, and the under is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven December games. The over for Miami is on rolls of 5-1 at home, 11-4 following a SU loss and 4-0 with the Dolphins favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Carolina (6-8, 7-7) at N.Y. Giants (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS)
The Giants, scrambling to keep their playoff hopes alive, take on the upset-minded Panthers at the Meadowlands.
New York, on the outside looking in for the postseason at the moment, hammered Washington 45-12 Monday night as a three-point road chalk and has alternated SU wins and losses over its last six games (2-4 ATS). The Giants have a disparate defense, allowing just 306.8 ypg (seventh) but also giving up 24.4 ppg (26th). Prior to shutting down the Redskins on Monday, New York had allowed at least 21 points in nine straight games, with four of those teams scoring 30 or more. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is averaging 382.7 ypg (fifth) and 27.6 ppg (sixth).
Carolina upended Minnesota 26-7 as a heavy nine-point home underdog Sunday night to cover for the third straight week. The victory ended a string of four games in which the Panthers scored 17 points or less, but they still average just 17.9 ppg (24th) and 325.3 ypg (20th), while the defense allows 20.6 ppg (16th.) and 323.1 ypg (13th).
New York has won and covered in the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 34-28 overtime victory as a 3½-point home chalk last December, a game that decided the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs. The SU winner is 5-0 ATS in the last five clashes, and the chalk is on a 4-1 ATS run.
Despite Monday’s rout, the Giants remain on a handful of negative ATS streaks, including 2-7 overall, 1-5 laying points, 1-4 at home and 2-5 within the NFC, though they are also on pointspread upticks of 5-0 against losing teams, 4-1 in December, 19-7 after a SU win and 23-9 following a spread cover. The Panthers sport positive ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-0 against NFC foes, 5-1 as a pup and 4-1 on the road, and they are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 December games.
The over for New York is on tears of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in the NFC, 4-1 in December, 6-2-1 against losing teams and 5-2 at the Meadowlands. On the flip side, the under for Carolina is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 with the Panthers a road pup. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Tampa Bay (2-12, 5-9 ATS) at New Orleans (13-1, 8-6 ATS)
The Saints, looking to bounce back from their first loss of the year, take on the dismal division rival Buccaneers at the Superdome.
New Orleans’ rally came up short in a 24-17 Saturday night loss to Dallas as a 7½-point home favorite, ending the Saints’ chances at a perfect season while also giving them their third straight ATS setback. New Orleans, averaging 35.8 ppg prior to last week, failed to score at least 24 points for the first time all year. However, it still leads the NFL at 34.5 ppg and 419.6 ypg. The Saints lost the turnover battle 3-0 against the Cowboys, yet are still third in the league with a plus-13 margin.
Tampa Bay scored a dominating road upset last week for just its second win of the year, routing Seattle 24-7 catching 6½ points to end a five-game SU skid (2-3 ATS). Despite that scoring “outburst,” the Bucs are still averaging just 15.3 ppg and 282.5 ypg, rating 29th in the league in both categories, while giving up 25.9 ppg (29th) and 365.4 ypg (26th).
New Orleans is on a 3-0 ATS surge in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 38-7 blowout as a 10½-point home chalk on Nov. 22, giving the SU winner a 5-1 ATS mark in the last six clashes. However, Tampa is 5-1 ATS on its last six trips to the dome, and the road team is on a 10-3 ATS tear in the last 13 matchups.
The Saints have struggled at the betting window lately, shouldering negative ATS streaks of 2-6 overall (all as a chalk), 0-4 in December, 1-6 inside the conference and 1-4 in the NFC South. However, they’ve been an excellent bounce-back team, going 11-1 ATS in their last dozen following a SU loss, and they are on a 7-3 ATS run as a home chalk.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is on ATS purges of 5-11 overall, 1-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 in December and 2-5 in division play, and the Bucs are just 2-16 SU (6-12 ATS) in their last 18 games, dating to last season.
New Orleans has stayed under the total in four of its last five (all as a favorite), but it remains on “over” runs of 10-3 in December, 14-5-1 in the Big Easy and 19-7-1 in NFC action. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last eight meetings. Conversely, the under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a pup), 4-1 in the NFC South and 9-3 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Jacksonville (7-7, 5-9 ATS) at New England (9-5, 6-7-1 ATS)
The Patriots aim to wrap up the AFC East and stay in contention for the No. 3 seed when they meet the Jaguars at Gillette Stadium.
New England topped Buffalo 17-10 to get a push as a seven-point road chalk Sunday, winning for the second straight week while ending a three-game ATS hiccup. The Patriots are still eighth in the league in scoring (26.1 ppg), but they’ve put up 21 points or less in four straight games, after scoring 25 or more in eight of their first 10 outings. New England is No. 2 in total offense (398.3 ypg), and the defense allows 314.9 ypg (10th) and just 17.4 ppg (tied for third).
Jacksonville is on an untimely two-game SU and ATS skid, though it still harbors the best playoff hopes among the six AFC teams tied at 7-7. In a Thursday night home shootout last week with unbeaten Indianapolis, the Jags lost 35-31 as a 3½-point ‘dog, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four starts. Jacksonville is averaging 341.6 ypg (15th) and netting just 19 ppg (21st).
New England has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 31-20 divisional playoff victory two seasons ago, though Jacksonville covered as a 13½-point road pup. The Pats are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run.
The Patriots are on ATS upswings of 34-16-1 laying 3½ to 10 points and 4-0 at home as a chalk of the same price. The Jaguars are on several pointspread skids, including 2-8 overall, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-4 in December, 3-8 after a SU loss, 2-5 after a non-cover and 2-5 in the AFC.
New England is on “under” streaks of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 in December, 5-0-1 laying points, 5-1 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Similarly, Jacksonville is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 in roadies, 8-2 as a road pup and 6-2 in December, though the over for the Jags is on upturns of 5-1 after a SU loss and 13-5-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Baltimore (8-6 SU and ATS) at Pittsburgh (7-7, 4-10 ATS)
The Ravens make the trip to Heinz Field to meet the bitter rival Steelers, with both participants in last year’s AFC title game fighting to gain a spot in the AFC playoffs this time around.
Baltimore has posted two straight blowout home wins the past two weeks, albeit against Detroit and Chicago, respectively. On Sunday, the Ravens rolled 31-7 as a 10½-point favorite, following a 48-3 beatdown of the Lions laying 14 points. After five straight games of scoring 20 points or less, Baltimore has its offense back on track and is averaging 25 ppg for the year (ninth), while allowing just 16.1 ppg, second only to the Jets’ 15.8 ppg.
Pittsburgh outlasted Green Bay 37-36 as a 2½-point home chalk on a Ben Roethlisberger-to-Mike Wallace TD pass as time expired. It was a win the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers desperately needed after an 0-5 SU freefall, though they failed to cover for the third straight week. Roethlisberger threw for an outrageous career-best 503 yards, going 29 of 46 with three TDs and no INTs.
This matchup features two of the league’s better defenses, with Baltimore yielding 299.8 ypg (fourth) and Pittsburgh allowing 304.2 ypg (sixth). Four weeks ago, the Ravens edged the Steelers 20-17 in overtime, going off as a nine-point chalk due to Roethlisberger sitting out with concussion symptoms.
The Steelers have covered the last three in this rivalry, including a 23-14 home win giving six points in the AFC title game last year. The underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run in the last five meetings.
The Ravens are on spread-covering surges of 19-9 overall, 6-1 as a road pup of up to three points, 4-1 in December and 13-6 after a spread-cover, but they’ve gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC North games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams, but they are otherwise on ATS dives of 1-5 overall, 0-5 laying points, 1-4 at home (all as a chalk), 3-13 giving three or less at Heinz, 1-4 in division play and 2-6 after a SU win.
The under for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in the AFC and 4-1 in the division, but the over is on an 8-2-1 tear with the Ravens a road ‘dog. Furthermore, the over for Pittsburgh is on a boatload of rolls, including 4-1 overall, 50-22-1 at home, 20-7 laying three points or less and 19-8 against AFC opposition. Finally, in this heated rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven clashes overall and five straight at Heinz Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (1-13, 7-7 ATS) at Arizona (9-5, 8-6 ATS)
The defending conference champion Cardinals, who have already clinched their second straight NFC West but who still have a shot at the No. 3 playoff seed, take on the lowly Rams at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Arizona held off another dismal team last week, beating Detroit 31-24 but coming up way short as an overwhelming 14-point chalk in failing to cash for the second straight game. The Cardinals, who have alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games, have 10 turnovers over their past two games (three last week) and are at a minus-8 margin for the season (26th). Still, they are 10th in the league in scoring at 24.1 ppg.
St. Louis gave Houston a scare Sunday, losing 16-13 as a hefty 14-point home underdog for its sixth consecutive SU loss (4-2 ATS). The Rams’ problem is an inability to score averaging a league-worst 11.4 ppg, and the effort against the Titans marked the eighth time they’ve been held to 13 points or less this season. The Rams are also allowing 26.9 ppg (30th).
Arizona has won six in a row against St. Louis (4-2 ATS), including a 21-13 road victory Nov. 22, though the Rams covered as a 9½-point pup to halt a 3-0 ATS run by the Cardinals in this rivalry. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the underdog is on a 9-3 ATS roll.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a chalk, but the ATS streaks turn upward from there, including 13-6 overall, 4-1 after a pointspread defeat and 7-3 at home. The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games (all as a pup) and are on a pair of 4-1 ATS runs – in conference play and in December – but they are on a 1-23 SU freefall (11-13 ATS), and they carry negative ATS streaks of 7-19 in the NFC West and 7-16 against winning teams.
In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings at Arizona. In addition, the under for the Cards is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in division action and 6-2 after a SU win, and the under for St. Louis is on runs of 5-1-1 in the division and 5-2 on the road. That said, the over is 14-5 in Arizona’s last 19 at home, 15-4 in its last 19 in December and 38-17 in the Cardinals’ last 55 games against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
Detroit (2-12, 4-9-1 ATS) at San Francisco (6-8, 8-4-2 ATS)
The 49ers, who have fallen apart since getting off to a 3-1 start, take on the woeful Lions at Candlestick Park in a meeting of two teams playing out the string.
San Francisco has alternated SU wins and losses over the past seven weeks (3-3-1 ATS), falling 27-13 at Philadelphia last week as a seven-point pup. The Niners have beaten the defending NFC champion Cardinals twice this year, and their defense is allowing just 19.2 ppg (eighth). But their offense is 28th in total yards (286.6 ypg) and tied for 18th in scoring (20.1 ppg).
Detroit rallied from a 17-0 deficit to give Arizona a game Sunday, ultimately losing 31-24 but covering as a heavy 14-point home ‘dog. The Lions have dropped four in a row (2-2 ATS), and their defense continues to be porous, allowing 31.2 ppg and 396.1 ypg, both the worst marks in the league. The offense is netting just 16.6 ppg (27th) and 296.1 ypg (25th). Dating to the middle of the 2007 season, Detroit is a meager 3-35 SU (12-25-1 ATS).
San Francisco is on a 6-0 SU tear in this rivalry (4-1-1 ATS), most recently rolling 31-13 at home as a five-point chalk in September 2008. The Niners are also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Candlestick.
The 49ers sport positive pointspread streaks of 11-5-3 overall, 5-0-2 after a non-cover, 6-1-1 following a SU loss, 7-2-1 at the ‘Stick and 16-7 laying more than 10 points, though they’ve also gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight against losing teams. The Lions are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 starts catching more than 10 points, but they are on numerous ATS slides, including 2-6-1 overall, 1-5-1 on the road (all as a pup) and 6-19-1 after a spread-cover.
San Francisco is on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 7-1 in December, 8-2 after a SU loss, 4-1 in NFC contests and 5-2 at home, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six straight meetings overall, with five of those contests played at Candlestick. Detroit, meanwhile, is on “over” rolls of 23-9 on the highway, 9-3 as a road ‘dog, 11-3 in December, 11-2-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (10-4, 9-5 ATS)
The streaking Eagles, who still have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, gear up for a non-conference contest with the inconsistent Broncos at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia dropped San Francisco 27-13 as a seven-point home chalk Sunday for its fifth consecutive SU victory (4-1 ATS). The Eagles, who can clinch the NFC East with a victory today, have scored 24 points or more in all five games, moving into the No. 2 slot in the NFL at 28.5 ppg for the year, behind only high-octane New Orleans (34.5 ppg). Philly forced four turnovers last week, an area that has been key all season, as the Eagles now hold a turnover margin of plus-17, one behind league-leading Green Bay.
Denver imploded against Oakland last week, giving up a last-minute TD in a 20-19 home loss as an overwhelming 14-point favorite to severely hamper its playoff prospects. The Broncos have had one of the better defenses in the league all year, allowing 294.4 ypg (third) and 17.9 ppg (tied for sixth), but their offense hasn’t taken advantage. Against Oakland, Denver (19.6 ppg) settled for four field goals, blowing a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line late in the game.
These teams have met just once this decade, with Denver plowing to a 49-21 rout as a four-point home chalk in October 2005.
The Eagles are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall (all as a favorite), 4-0 in December, 7-3 at home and 6-2 laying points at the Linc. On the flip side, the Broncos are on ATS purges of 2-6 overall, 1-4 getting points, 1-6 in December, 1-6 after a SU loss and 8-24 after a pointspread setback. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 17 straight Denver games.
The over for Philadelphia is on streaks of 8-2-1 at home, 6-2-1 with the Eagles a home chalk and 5-2 against winning teams, and the over for Denver is on rolls of 5-0 in December, 4-1 on the road, 16-6-2 after a SU loss and 20-8-2 after a non-cover. However, the under for the Broncos is on a 6-1 stretch against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
N.Y. Jets (7-7 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (14-0, 10-4 ATS)
The Colts aim to continue their run toward a perfect season with a Lucas Oil Stadium contest against the Jets, who must win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Indianapolis edged Jacksonville 35-31 as a 3½-point road favorite in the Thursday contest last week, with the winning score coming on a 65-yard TD pass from Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne. The Colts, who have cashed in five straight games, are fourth in the NFL in total offense (383.3 ypg) and fifth in scoring (28.1 ppg). Manning leads the league with 4,213 passing yards, and he’s tied with Drew Brees atop the TD passing list with 33 (15 INTs). Indy is also fifth in scoring defense (17.7 ppg).
New York hindered its bid to make the playoffs with a 10-7 home loss to Atlanta on Sunday as a 5½-point chalk, ending a three-game SU and ATS surge. The Jets field the No. 1 total defense (262.8 ypg) and the No. 1 scoring defense (15.8 ppg), and they have the NFL’s top rushing attack (164.1 ypg). However, they are just 18th in scoring (20.1 ppg), and rookie QB Mark Sanchez has 20 INTs on the year, against just 12 TDs.
These teams last met in October 2006, with Indianapolis winning 31-28 on the road, and New York covering as a 7½-point pup. Indy is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with the Jets, the home team is on a 7-2-2 ATS roll, and the favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine clashes. Also, the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Colts have won 23 consecutive regular-season games, going 15-8 ATS in that stretch, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five December starts. Their current 5-0 ATS run has all come from the favorite’s role. The Jets are on a 7-3 ATS spurt as a road ‘dog, but they are on ATS skids of 1-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 2-6 in December and 2-5 within the AFC.
In addition, the SU winner has covered in New York’s last 16 games, dating to last December.
New York is on a bundle of “under” runs, including 4-0-1 overall, 6-2-1 on the highway, 3-0-1 as a pup, 3-0-1 against winning teams and 20-8-2 in December. But in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1).
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS) at Washington (4-10, 7-7 ATS)
The Cowboys, who control their playoff destiny and still have a shot at the NFC East title, travel to FedEx Field for a division battle with the reeling Redskins.
Dallas dealt New Orleans its first loss of the year, posting a 24-17 road victory last Saturday as a 7½-point underdog for just its fifth SU win and third ATS win in its last 15 December games. The Cowboys sport the third-most-productive offense in the league, at 394.5 ypg, though they’ve generated just 22.9 ppg (12th) from those yards. Defensively, the Pokes are middle-of-the pack in allowing 329.9 ypg (15th), but they’re giving up just 17.9 ppg (tied for sixth).
Coach Jim Zorn almost assuredly sealed his fate as the soon-to-be-ex Washington coach in a humiliating 45-12 Monday night loss to the Giants as a three-point home pup. Zorn called for a fake field out of a wild formation at the end of the first half, leading to an INT, and the Redskins had their five-game ATS winning streak snapped. Washington is averaging 317.9 ypg (23rd) and just 17.6 ppg (25th).
Dallas needed a late fourth-quarter TD to sneak out a sloppy 7-6 home victory over Washington five weeks ago, falling far short as an 11-point chalk. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) in the last nine clashes in this rivalry (5-1 ATS last six), and the underdog is on a 21-7 ATS spree. However, Dallas has gone 8-3 ATS on its last 11 trips to D.C., and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven starts against losing teams, but the ATS streaks head downward from there, including 3-12 in December, 4-9 on the road, 1-4 as a chalk and 0-4 as a road chalk. The Redskins have cashed in just three of their last 13 at FedEx, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 as a pup.
The under for Dallas is on tears of 6-1 overall, 4-1 in the NFC, 4-1 with the Pokes favored, 7-3 in December and a lengthy 49-23-3 against losing teams. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington. On the flip side, the Redskins are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-0 at home, 6-1 getting points, 6-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in the NFC East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
MUSIC CITY BOWL
(at Nashville, Tenn.)
Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Clemson (8-5 SU and ATS)
For the second time in four years, Kentucky and Clemson will face off at LP Field in Nashville in an ACC-SEC postseason matchup.
The Wildcats, who finished tied for fourth in the SEC’s East Division, won five of seven (4-3 ATS) down the stretch to qualify for this bowl but lost a hard-fought 30-27 overtime game to Tennessee in the finale, falling short as a three-point home ‘dog. Despite the 30 points allowed to Tennessee, Kentucky’s defense stepped up in the final seven weeks, limiting the opposition to 14 points or less four times.
The Tigers won the ACC’s Atlantic Division but came up short in the conference title game, losing 39-34 to Georgia Tech as a one-point underdog. Clemson rattled off six straight wins (5-1 ATS), scoring 34 points or more in each victory, before dropping their regular-season finale at South Carolina (34-17 as a three-point road favorite) and losing the ACC title game to Georgia Tech. The Tigers, who failed to cover in their last three games, scored 21 points or less in three of their final four defeats.
In the 2006 Music City Bowl, Kentucky scored a 28-20 victory over Clemson as an 11½-point underdog. Going back to 1985, the Wildcats are 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS) against the Tigers.
Kentucky ran its bowl winning streak to three with a 25-19 upset of East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl in January, getting the outright win as a three-point underdog. The four-straight bowl appearances are a record for the Wildcats, who hadn’t won a postseason game since 1984 when they upset Clemson in 2006.
The Tigers have lost three straight bowl games, including last year’s 26-21 setback to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl as a 2½-point favorite. Clemson’s last postseason victory was the 2005 Champ Sports Bowl, a 19-10 triumph over Colorado.
The Wildcats have struggled against the run this season, allowing 183.1 yards per game to rank 100th out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, and they’ll have their hands full trying to stop all-purpose back C.J. Spiller, who ranked fourth nationally in all-purpose yards with 194 per game and finished with a school-record 20 touchdowns. Spiller was Clemson’s first ACC Player of the Year since 1987 and he finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting.
Kentucky comes into this game on ATS runs of 3-0-1 on neutral fields, 9-2-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Clemson is on ATS slides of 1-6 against SEC teams, 0-5 in December games, 0-5 in neutral-site contests, 3-9 in non-conference games and 4-12 when coming off a non-cover.
The Wildcats are riding “over” streaks of 4-1 as an underdog, 16-5 against teams with winning records and 4-1 on natural grass. The Tigers have topped the total in five straight overall and four straight as a favorite, but Clemson is also on “under” stretches of 5-0 in bowl games, 7-3 against the SEC, 4-1 after a straight-up loss and 7-3 after a non-cover. Finally, then these two met in the 2006 Music City Bowl, the “under” rolled in with a 10-point cushion.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
MTI Newsletter 12/27
5-Star – Tampa Bay +14’ over NEW ORLEANS — The Saints have always had trouble when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. They were 0-11 ATS in this situation coming into this season and now, after failing to cover at home vs Carolina and Atlanta, they are 0-13 ATS when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. This situation is easilty accessed with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) with:
team=Saints and H and DIV and WP>o:WP and 20001224<=date
In addition, the Saints are 0-10 ATS (-7.1 ppg) as a 6+ favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Last week, the Saints suffered their first loss of the season to the Cowboys. The loss was coming, as the Saints’ level of play has dropped precipitously over their previous few games. New Orleans was domi- nated by the Cowboys, who had 36:26 of possession time and rushed for 145 yards. It was the Saints lowest possession time of the season by more thren three minutes.
The situation in which the Saints are in has been a losing play for many seasons now. NFL teams are 0-8 ATS (-9.5 ppg) as a home 7+ favorite the week after they had at least three fewer minutes of posses- sion time than their season-to-date average as a home favorite. Also, the league is 0-11 ATS (-13.5 ppg) as a 7+ favorite the week after at home as a TD+ favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Bucs are off a great road game and teams on the road off a great road game have been terrific plays. Recently, NFL teams are a combined 13-0 ATS (+6.9 ppg) as a road 7+ dog after a straight up win on the road. Also, NFL teams are 16-0 ATS a a TD+dog when they are off a road game in which they allowed at least ten points fewer than their season-to-date average, as long as they did not lose that game by a field goal or more. The les- son is clear, don’t disrepect a big road dog that is off a godd defensive performance on the road.
The Buccaneers themselves are a perfect 8-0 ATS (15.3 ppg) as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent — wining seven of the eight straight up. Their only loss in this situation came this season, when the Dolphins kicked a field goal with 14 seconds left in the game to beat the Bucs 25-23 as a double-digit favorite.
Yes, the Saints beat the Bucs 38-7 as a double-digit favorite in Tampa earlier this season, but New Orleans is 0-5 ATS (-12.0 ppg) at home vs a team they beat as a 3+ road favorite earlier the same season. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: Tampa Bay 17 NEW ORLEANS 20
4-Star Carolina at NY Giants UNDER 43 — The Giants have gone over three straight, but all games were vs divisional opponent in games that had a line very close to pick. Here, they are a significant favorite and we expect them to play a bit more conservatively on of- fense. The Panthers, of course, should feature their rushing game to keep the ball out of the hands of the red-hot Eli Manning.
The Panthers upset the Vikings last Sunday Night using patience and a very tough defense. Carolina stayed close to the Vikings for the first three quarters and then outscored them 20-0 in the fourth quarter to win 26-7. The Panthers punted seven times and forced the Vikings to punt eight times. We expect them to adopt the same conservative strategy against the Giants.
The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-6.9 ppg) as a dog the week after a win in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters and 0-9 OU after a game in which they scored at least 7 points MORE than expected and allowed at least seven points FEWER than expected.
In addition, Carolina is 0-11 OU since the start of the 2002 season when they are off a game in which they punter at least seven times and trailed at the half. The Panthers have stayed under by an average of 11.2 ppg in this situation.
The fact that the Panthers are a big dog here and they were a dog last week points to the UNDER. Carolina is 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) as a dog of more than six points when they were a dog last week. The SDQL for this situation is:
team=Panthers and line>6 and p and NB and 20020929<=date
Note that this trend was active last week when the Panthers were a big dog against the Vikings. That game, of course, stayed under the total.
Lastly, for the Panthers, we expect a strong defensive effort because of their large time of possession last week. Carolina is 0-7 OU (-10.9 ppg) as a dog the week after they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average as a TD+ dog.
Turning our attention to the Giants, we recall that they are a TD favorite over a non-divisional opponent after facing divisional op- ponents in each of the previous three weeks. The Giants’ offense has been really clicking, but this is an UNDER situation for the league. Teams that are not undefeated on the season are a combined 0-17 OU as a 7+ point home favorite over a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, as long as they had at 35+ first downs combined in those two games vs divisional foes. Let’s take these two UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 Carolina 17
5-Star – Tampa Bay +14’ over NEW ORLEANS — The Saints have always had trouble when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. They were 0-11 ATS in this situation coming into this season and now, after failing to cover at home vs Carolina and Atlanta, they are 0-13 ATS when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. This situation is easilty accessed with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) with:
team=Saints and H and DIV and WP>o:WP and 20001224<=date
In addition, the Saints are 0-10 ATS (-7.1 ppg) as a 6+ favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Last week, the Saints suffered their first loss of the season to the Cowboys. The loss was coming, as the Saints’ level of play has dropped precipitously over their previous few games. New Orleans was domi- nated by the Cowboys, who had 36:26 of possession time and rushed for 145 yards. It was the Saints lowest possession time of the season by more thren three minutes.
The situation in which the Saints are in has been a losing play for many seasons now. NFL teams are 0-8 ATS (-9.5 ppg) as a home 7+ favorite the week after they had at least three fewer minutes of posses- sion time than their season-to-date average as a home favorite. Also, the league is 0-11 ATS (-13.5 ppg) as a 7+ favorite the week after at home as a TD+ favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Bucs are off a great road game and teams on the road off a great road game have been terrific plays. Recently, NFL teams are a combined 13-0 ATS (+6.9 ppg) as a road 7+ dog after a straight up win on the road. Also, NFL teams are 16-0 ATS a a TD+dog when they are off a road game in which they allowed at least ten points fewer than their season-to-date average, as long as they did not lose that game by a field goal or more. The les- son is clear, don’t disrepect a big road dog that is off a godd defensive performance on the road.
The Buccaneers themselves are a perfect 8-0 ATS (15.3 ppg) as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent — wining seven of the eight straight up. Their only loss in this situation came this season, when the Dolphins kicked a field goal with 14 seconds left in the game to beat the Bucs 25-23 as a double-digit favorite.
Yes, the Saints beat the Bucs 38-7 as a double-digit favorite in Tampa earlier this season, but New Orleans is 0-5 ATS (-12.0 ppg) at home vs a team they beat as a 3+ road favorite earlier the same season. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: Tampa Bay 17 NEW ORLEANS 20
4-Star Carolina at NY Giants UNDER 43 — The Giants have gone over three straight, but all games were vs divisional opponent in games that had a line very close to pick. Here, they are a significant favorite and we expect them to play a bit more conservatively on of- fense. The Panthers, of course, should feature their rushing game to keep the ball out of the hands of the red-hot Eli Manning.
The Panthers upset the Vikings last Sunday Night using patience and a very tough defense. Carolina stayed close to the Vikings for the first three quarters and then outscored them 20-0 in the fourth quarter to win 26-7. The Panthers punted seven times and forced the Vikings to punt eight times. We expect them to adopt the same conservative strategy against the Giants.
The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-6.9 ppg) as a dog the week after a win in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters and 0-9 OU after a game in which they scored at least 7 points MORE than expected and allowed at least seven points FEWER than expected.
In addition, Carolina is 0-11 OU since the start of the 2002 season when they are off a game in which they punter at least seven times and trailed at the half. The Panthers have stayed under by an average of 11.2 ppg in this situation.
The fact that the Panthers are a big dog here and they were a dog last week points to the UNDER. Carolina is 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) as a dog of more than six points when they were a dog last week. The SDQL for this situation is:
team=Panthers and line>6 and p and NB and 20020929<=date
Note that this trend was active last week when the Panthers were a big dog against the Vikings. That game, of course, stayed under the total.
Lastly, for the Panthers, we expect a strong defensive effort because of their large time of possession last week. Carolina is 0-7 OU (-10.9 ppg) as a dog the week after they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average as a TD+ dog.
Turning our attention to the Giants, we recall that they are a TD favorite over a non-divisional opponent after facing divisional op- ponents in each of the previous three weeks. The Giants’ offense has been really clicking, but this is an UNDER situation for the league. Teams that are not undefeated on the season are a combined 0-17 OU as a 7+ point home favorite over a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, as long as they had at 35+ first downs combined in those two games vs divisional foes. Let’s take these two UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 Carolina 17
THE GOLDSHEET: 3-6 IN THE BOWLS
*Kentucky 27 - Clemson 26—The Music City Bowl in Nashville has
become a home away from home for Kentucky, visiting there for the 3rd time in
past 4 seasons, including 28-20 upset vs. Clemson in 2006. Wildcat HC Rich
Brooks says, “It’s a surrounding we are familiar with, where we practice, the
meeting room, the hotels, the whole deal.” And while UK is off a painful 30-24
OT loss vs. Tennessee (25th straight in series), Clemson is also bummed about
being bumped down to 4th in the ACC pecking order (thanks also to Florida
State’s leapfrog into the Gator Bowl for Bobby Bowden’s finale) after blowing
chance to win league crown and an elusive BCS Bowl in 39-34 setback vs.
Georgia Tech in title game.
Lexington sources tell us the Cats are preparing to implement their downfield
passing game, which was absent down the stretch, with anticipated return of 6-
6 sr. QB Mike Hartline (59%, 7 TDS, 6 ints.), who’s practicing without a brace
after injuring a knee vs. South Carolina Oct. 10. Remember, he shined (19 of
31 for 209 yds. 1 TD) in LY’s come-from-behind 23-16 Liberty Bowl win vs. East
Carolina. And either Hartline or mobile, fast-learning frosh pilot Morgan Newton
(6 starts; 55%) are able to work play-action, aided by a sturdy OL (only 15 sacks
allowed) & solid infantry (193 ypg)—spearheaded by swift, all-purpose RBs
Derrick Locke (843 YR, 4.8 ypc, 30 yd. avg. KO returns) & do-it-all Randall Cobb
(537 YR, 10 TDs, 6.4 ypc; 37 grabs; missed LY’s bowl with injury)—who’ll take
direct snaps out of the “Wild Cobb” formation. And while ball-hawking Tiger
2ndary had 31 ints., its front 7 showed cracks in final 2 games, yielding a
whopping 556 YR in 123 attempts.
Of course, Clemson’s A-A RB/returner C.J. Spiller (1145 YR, 11 TD, 5.7 ypc;
33 catches; 26 yd. avg. on punt returns; 34-yd. avg KO returns)—the only player
in FBS to score a TD in every game this year—is a MAJOR weapon. But doubt
the Tiger attack, which feasted on a number of low-ranked ACC defenses, goes
wild vs. battle-tested UK stop unit (22.8 ppg, only 48% completions), featuring
omnipresent LB Micah Johnson (100 tackles) & lock-down CB David Lindley,
who’ll shadow jet-like WR Jacoby Ford (53 catches.)
The “Blue Wave” will also motor down I-65 in big numbers, with the Cats
already selling nearly 16,000 tickets, compared to just 4,000 for Clemson. So,
will gladly take a full TD with UK, feeding off the underdog role again (3rd
straight bowl), and gunning for an unprecedented 4th straight bowl victory and
19th straight win vs. non-conference foes. Sage advice for Mr. Brooks: Avoid
kicking ball to Spiller, who has 5 TDs on KO returns TY! (06-Ky. +10 28-20
(Music City Bowl)...SR: Kentucky 8-4)
KEY RELEASES
PITTSBURGH by 14 over Baltimore
SAN FRANCISCO by 23 over Detroit
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Jacksonville-New England game
PITTSBURGH 30 - Baltimore 16—The Ravens earned their triple-
revenge for LY’s losses in the first meeting, but it wasn’t easy. Baltimore needed a FG in the last two minutes to tie before beating the Steelers and reserve QB Dennis Dixon 20-17 in OT. Now, Ben Roethlisberger (team-record 503 YP last week) is back in the saddle, and the defending champs can kiss their playoff hopes good-by if they don’t win this one. Last week’s last-second victory over G.B. and Big Ben’s big-time receiving cast should get the job done. (Will Troy Polamalu give it a try?)
(09-BALT. 20-Pitt 17 (OT)...B.21-16 P.38/153 B.29/132 B.23/35/0/261 P.12/26/1/145 B.2 P.0) (08-PITT 23-Balt. 20 (OT)...B.16-11 B.33/103 P.28/69 P.14/24/1/168 B.16/31/0/140 P.0 B.1) (08-Pitt 13-BALT. 9...P.18-12 B.31/112 P.26/92 P.22/40/0/220 B.10/26/1/89 P.2 B.0) (08-PITT 23-Balt. 14...B.13-11 B.25/73 P.28/52 P.16/33/0/223 B.13/30/3/125 P.1 B.1) (09-BAL. -7' 20-17 (OT); 08-PITT -5 23-20 (OT), Pitt +3 13-9, PIT -6 23-14 (Playoffs)...SR: Pitt 18-11)
S A N F R A N C I S C O 3 3 - D e t r o i t 1 0 — S . F . f i n d s i t s e l f i n t h e unaccustomed role of a big favorite. But Detroit has lost 19 straight games on the road, and this year’s seven defeats have all been by DDs, five of the seven by 17 points or more. With RB Kevin Smith (knee) injured two weeks ago, the Lions have lost 11 starters or top backups for the season. Although the 49ers are now out of the playoffs, we expect that Mike Singletary (14-6-2 last 22 vs. the spread) is still “looking for winners.”
(08-S. FRAN. 31-Det. 13...S.25-14 S.39/182 D.20/116 S.16/23/0/188 D.15/31/2/124 S.0 D.0) (08-SAN FRANCISCO -4' 31-13...SR: San Francisco 34-27-1)
UNDER THE TOTAL NEW ENGLAND 20 - Jacksonville 16—The
epitaph of Jacksonville’s season likely will cite the absence of disruptive elements on its defense (only 14 sacks TY!) that kept the Jags out of the playoffs. Still, reluctant to trust N.E. to extend the margin these days, as its KO power muted with Randy Moss (whose diva side is threatening to resurface) not quite the same game-altering force. Thus, Tom Brady apt to lean on RB Laurence Maroney and others more than in the past. December conditions in Foxborough, combined with JV’s limited home-run power aside from “MJD,” point to extension of “under” trends (Jags 9-4 “under” last 13 away; Belichick 4- 0-1 last 5 TY).
(07-NEW ENGLAND -13' 31-20 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 7-1)
College Basketball Key Releases:
AKRON by 19 over Valparaiso
AKRON 86 - Valparaiso 67—Defending MAC champ Akron owns the balance (6 avg. between 7 & 9 ppg) and depth (9-man rotation) to avenge LY’s haunting series loss (blew 18-pt. lead!) at raucous Rhodes Arena, where Zips are 7-3 vs. number last 10. Akron’s nifty 5-9 soph PG “Humpty” Hutchins should easily break down defensively-soft Valpo (allowing a whopping 88 ppg away) picked to finish near bottom of Horizon League, while Akron’s prized 7-0 frosh C Zeke Marshall (2.3 bpg)—who has a 7-5 wingspan—alters plenty of inside shots on other end. 08-VAL +4' 74-66
*Kentucky 27 - Clemson 26—The Music City Bowl in Nashville has
become a home away from home for Kentucky, visiting there for the 3rd time in
past 4 seasons, including 28-20 upset vs. Clemson in 2006. Wildcat HC Rich
Brooks says, “It’s a surrounding we are familiar with, where we practice, the
meeting room, the hotels, the whole deal.” And while UK is off a painful 30-24
OT loss vs. Tennessee (25th straight in series), Clemson is also bummed about
being bumped down to 4th in the ACC pecking order (thanks also to Florida
State’s leapfrog into the Gator Bowl for Bobby Bowden’s finale) after blowing
chance to win league crown and an elusive BCS Bowl in 39-34 setback vs.
Georgia Tech in title game.
Lexington sources tell us the Cats are preparing to implement their downfield
passing game, which was absent down the stretch, with anticipated return of 6-
6 sr. QB Mike Hartline (59%, 7 TDS, 6 ints.), who’s practicing without a brace
after injuring a knee vs. South Carolina Oct. 10. Remember, he shined (19 of
31 for 209 yds. 1 TD) in LY’s come-from-behind 23-16 Liberty Bowl win vs. East
Carolina. And either Hartline or mobile, fast-learning frosh pilot Morgan Newton
(6 starts; 55%) are able to work play-action, aided by a sturdy OL (only 15 sacks
allowed) & solid infantry (193 ypg)—spearheaded by swift, all-purpose RBs
Derrick Locke (843 YR, 4.8 ypc, 30 yd. avg. KO returns) & do-it-all Randall Cobb
(537 YR, 10 TDs, 6.4 ypc; 37 grabs; missed LY’s bowl with injury)—who’ll take
direct snaps out of the “Wild Cobb” formation. And while ball-hawking Tiger
2ndary had 31 ints., its front 7 showed cracks in final 2 games, yielding a
whopping 556 YR in 123 attempts.
Of course, Clemson’s A-A RB/returner C.J. Spiller (1145 YR, 11 TD, 5.7 ypc;
33 catches; 26 yd. avg. on punt returns; 34-yd. avg KO returns)—the only player
in FBS to score a TD in every game this year—is a MAJOR weapon. But doubt
the Tiger attack, which feasted on a number of low-ranked ACC defenses, goes
wild vs. battle-tested UK stop unit (22.8 ppg, only 48% completions), featuring
omnipresent LB Micah Johnson (100 tackles) & lock-down CB David Lindley,
who’ll shadow jet-like WR Jacoby Ford (53 catches.)
The “Blue Wave” will also motor down I-65 in big numbers, with the Cats
already selling nearly 16,000 tickets, compared to just 4,000 for Clemson. So,
will gladly take a full TD with UK, feeding off the underdog role again (3rd
straight bowl), and gunning for an unprecedented 4th straight bowl victory and
19th straight win vs. non-conference foes. Sage advice for Mr. Brooks: Avoid
kicking ball to Spiller, who has 5 TDs on KO returns TY! (06-Ky. +10 28-20
(Music City Bowl)...SR: Kentucky 8-4)
KEY RELEASES
PITTSBURGH by 14 over Baltimore
SAN FRANCISCO by 23 over Detroit
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Jacksonville-New England game
PITTSBURGH 30 - Baltimore 16—The Ravens earned their triple-
revenge for LY’s losses in the first meeting, but it wasn’t easy. Baltimore needed a FG in the last two minutes to tie before beating the Steelers and reserve QB Dennis Dixon 20-17 in OT. Now, Ben Roethlisberger (team-record 503 YP last week) is back in the saddle, and the defending champs can kiss their playoff hopes good-by if they don’t win this one. Last week’s last-second victory over G.B. and Big Ben’s big-time receiving cast should get the job done. (Will Troy Polamalu give it a try?)
(09-BALT. 20-Pitt 17 (OT)...B.21-16 P.38/153 B.29/132 B.23/35/0/261 P.12/26/1/145 B.2 P.0) (08-PITT 23-Balt. 20 (OT)...B.16-11 B.33/103 P.28/69 P.14/24/1/168 B.16/31/0/140 P.0 B.1) (08-Pitt 13-BALT. 9...P.18-12 B.31/112 P.26/92 P.22/40/0/220 B.10/26/1/89 P.2 B.0) (08-PITT 23-Balt. 14...B.13-11 B.25/73 P.28/52 P.16/33/0/223 B.13/30/3/125 P.1 B.1) (09-BAL. -7' 20-17 (OT); 08-PITT -5 23-20 (OT), Pitt +3 13-9, PIT -6 23-14 (Playoffs)...SR: Pitt 18-11)
S A N F R A N C I S C O 3 3 - D e t r o i t 1 0 — S . F . f i n d s i t s e l f i n t h e unaccustomed role of a big favorite. But Detroit has lost 19 straight games on the road, and this year’s seven defeats have all been by DDs, five of the seven by 17 points or more. With RB Kevin Smith (knee) injured two weeks ago, the Lions have lost 11 starters or top backups for the season. Although the 49ers are now out of the playoffs, we expect that Mike Singletary (14-6-2 last 22 vs. the spread) is still “looking for winners.”
(08-S. FRAN. 31-Det. 13...S.25-14 S.39/182 D.20/116 S.16/23/0/188 D.15/31/2/124 S.0 D.0) (08-SAN FRANCISCO -4' 31-13...SR: San Francisco 34-27-1)
UNDER THE TOTAL NEW ENGLAND 20 - Jacksonville 16—The
epitaph of Jacksonville’s season likely will cite the absence of disruptive elements on its defense (only 14 sacks TY!) that kept the Jags out of the playoffs. Still, reluctant to trust N.E. to extend the margin these days, as its KO power muted with Randy Moss (whose diva side is threatening to resurface) not quite the same game-altering force. Thus, Tom Brady apt to lean on RB Laurence Maroney and others more than in the past. December conditions in Foxborough, combined with JV’s limited home-run power aside from “MJD,” point to extension of “under” trends (Jags 9-4 “under” last 13 away; Belichick 4- 0-1 last 5 TY).
(07-NEW ENGLAND -13' 31-20 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 7-1)
College Basketball Key Releases:
AKRON by 19 over Valparaiso
AKRON 86 - Valparaiso 67—Defending MAC champ Akron owns the balance (6 avg. between 7 & 9 ppg) and depth (9-man rotation) to avenge LY’s haunting series loss (blew 18-pt. lead!) at raucous Rhodes Arena, where Zips are 7-3 vs. number last 10. Akron’s nifty 5-9 soph PG “Humpty” Hutchins should easily break down defensively-soft Valpo (allowing a whopping 88 ppg away) picked to finish near bottom of Horizon League, while Akron’s prized 7-0 frosh C Zeke Marshall (2.3 bpg)—who has a 7-5 wingspan—alters plenty of inside shots on other end. 08-VAL +4' 74-66
GOLD SHEET EXTRA: 1-3 IN BOWLS
The combination of a big bowl underdog from the SEC is too much to pass
up when Kentucky tackles Clemson in the Music City Bowl at Nashville’s LP
Field December 27. Note that bowl dogs receiving between 7 and 13½ points
stand a sparkling 58-28 vs. the number this decade. And SEC teams recorded
6-2 spread marks in bowls each of the last two years, and now 18-7 since
2006, with UK not suffering a spread loss its last three bowls over that span
(one of those a 28-20 win over the same Tigers in this very bowl three years
ago). The Cats have also covered 6 straight games away from Lexington and
are 7-2 vs. the line their last 9 as a dog away from home, qualifying them as a
featured bowl Power Underdog as well. On the other hand, note Clemson’s
2-6 spread mark its last 8 as chalk away from Death Valley.
KENTUCKY vs. CLEMSON (Music City, December 27)...This is a
rematch of ‘06 Music City won by UK 28-20. Indeed this is Wildcats’ third
Music City in 4 seasons, and Rich Brooks is undefeated SU (2-0-1 vs. line) in
bowls the last 3 years. Cats covered all 5 away from Lexington TY (6 straight
since LY) and are 7-2 last 9 as dog away from Commonwealth Stadium. Dabo
no covers last 3 on board TY and Tigers 2-6 vs. spread last 8 as chalk away
from home (2-3 in role for Dabo). Cats also in profitable “7+ dog” bowl
territory. SEC 12-4 vs. line in bowls the last two years. Tech edge-
Kentucky, based on team and bowl trends.
Technical Play of the Week
NFL: GREEN BAY over Seattle...Seahawks 1-7 vs. line last 8 away.
BALTIMORE-PITTSBURGH “Over”...Six of last seven “over” in series;
Steelers “over” 50-25 at Heinz Field since early ‘01. WASHINGTON over
Dallas...Skins have covered 7 of last 9 inseries and 5 straight TY prior to last
Monday vs. Giants
The combination of a big bowl underdog from the SEC is too much to pass
up when Kentucky tackles Clemson in the Music City Bowl at Nashville’s LP
Field December 27. Note that bowl dogs receiving between 7 and 13½ points
stand a sparkling 58-28 vs. the number this decade. And SEC teams recorded
6-2 spread marks in bowls each of the last two years, and now 18-7 since
2006, with UK not suffering a spread loss its last three bowls over that span
(one of those a 28-20 win over the same Tigers in this very bowl three years
ago). The Cats have also covered 6 straight games away from Lexington and
are 7-2 vs. the line their last 9 as a dog away from home, qualifying them as a
featured bowl Power Underdog as well. On the other hand, note Clemson’s
2-6 spread mark its last 8 as chalk away from Death Valley.
KENTUCKY vs. CLEMSON (Music City, December 27)...This is a
rematch of ‘06 Music City won by UK 28-20. Indeed this is Wildcats’ third
Music City in 4 seasons, and Rich Brooks is undefeated SU (2-0-1 vs. line) in
bowls the last 3 years. Cats covered all 5 away from Lexington TY (6 straight
since LY) and are 7-2 last 9 as dog away from Commonwealth Stadium. Dabo
no covers last 3 on board TY and Tigers 2-6 vs. spread last 8 as chalk away
from home (2-3 in role for Dabo). Cats also in profitable “7+ dog” bowl
territory. SEC 12-4 vs. line in bowls the last two years. Tech edge-
Kentucky, based on team and bowl trends.
Technical Play of the Week
NFL: GREEN BAY over Seattle...Seahawks 1-7 vs. line last 8 away.
BALTIMORE-PITTSBURGH “Over”...Six of last seven “over” in series;
Steelers “over” 50-25 at Heinz Field since early ‘01. WASHINGTON over
Dallas...Skins have covered 7 of last 9 inseries and 5 straight TY prior to last
Monday vs. Giants
CKO : 1-1 IN BOWLS
11 KENTUCKY over Clemson
Late Score Forecast:
KENTUCKY 30 - Clemson 24
SEC scouts report that UK QB Hartline is looking sharp in early practices after being sidelined with a knee injury Oct. 10,
allowing crafty o.c. Joker Phillips to re-install vertical plays absent down the stretch. And with mobile frosh QB Morgan
gaining confidence & multi-skilled Randall Cobb running the “Wild Cobb” formation, sagging Clemson defense (556 YR
allowed last 2 games) has a difficult task preparing for the varied Wildcat arsenal. UK’s LB Micah Johnson (100 tackles)
will key on star Clemson RB Spiller, while projected NFL 1st-rounder CB Lindley shadows Tiger WR Ford. Brooks’ squad
is seeking 4th straight bowl win and will take 16,000+ fans to Nashville
10 *MIAMI over Houston Late Score Forecast: *MIAMI 30 - Houston 17
Both teams 7-7 and still alive in the wild AFC wildcard picture. But Miami enjoys superior balance with its power- oriented rush attack. And young QB Chad Henne “arriving” fast (17 straight completions two weeks ago at Jacksonville; 349 YP, 3 TDs last week at Tennessee). Since their slow 0-3 start to the season, Miami is 8-3 vs. the spread. Injuries in the OL and RB fumbles have handicapped the Texan ground game (29th prior to last week).
10 DENVER over *Philadelphia Late Score Forecast: DENVER 26 - *Philadelphia 23
Broncos got caught looking past Oakland last week, and now they need to dial up the intensity for this visit to Philly— with former Eagle Pro Bowler Brian Dawkins in tow. A 13-year member of Philadelphia, Dawkins’ knowledge should help more than just a little bit in preparations. And Denver’s speed-oriented defense seems a good match to contain Philly’s big plays. Bronco QB Kyle Orton has connected for 10 TDs vs. only 2 ints. on the road TY
NINE-RATED GAMES:
GREEN BAY (-14 ) vs. Seattle——G.B.’s defense is embarrassed after last week’s 537-yard allowance in Pittsburgh; poor-traveling
Seahawks only one cover on the road TY.
TOTALS: UNDER (41½) in the N.Y. Jets-Indianapolis Game——Jets’ defense & ground attack will help “shrink” the game; Indy now 14-0 and will not yield points easily in final home game...
11 KENTUCKY over Clemson
Late Score Forecast:
KENTUCKY 30 - Clemson 24
SEC scouts report that UK QB Hartline is looking sharp in early practices after being sidelined with a knee injury Oct. 10,
allowing crafty o.c. Joker Phillips to re-install vertical plays absent down the stretch. And with mobile frosh QB Morgan
gaining confidence & multi-skilled Randall Cobb running the “Wild Cobb” formation, sagging Clemson defense (556 YR
allowed last 2 games) has a difficult task preparing for the varied Wildcat arsenal. UK’s LB Micah Johnson (100 tackles)
will key on star Clemson RB Spiller, while projected NFL 1st-rounder CB Lindley shadows Tiger WR Ford. Brooks’ squad
is seeking 4th straight bowl win and will take 16,000+ fans to Nashville
10 *MIAMI over Houston Late Score Forecast: *MIAMI 30 - Houston 17
Both teams 7-7 and still alive in the wild AFC wildcard picture. But Miami enjoys superior balance with its power- oriented rush attack. And young QB Chad Henne “arriving” fast (17 straight completions two weeks ago at Jacksonville; 349 YP, 3 TDs last week at Tennessee). Since their slow 0-3 start to the season, Miami is 8-3 vs. the spread. Injuries in the OL and RB fumbles have handicapped the Texan ground game (29th prior to last week).
10 DENVER over *Philadelphia Late Score Forecast: DENVER 26 - *Philadelphia 23
Broncos got caught looking past Oakland last week, and now they need to dial up the intensity for this visit to Philly— with former Eagle Pro Bowler Brian Dawkins in tow. A 13-year member of Philadelphia, Dawkins’ knowledge should help more than just a little bit in preparations. And Denver’s speed-oriented defense seems a good match to contain Philly’s big plays. Bronco QB Kyle Orton has connected for 10 TDs vs. only 2 ints. on the road TY
NINE-RATED GAMES:
GREEN BAY (-14 ) vs. Seattle——G.B.’s defense is embarrassed after last week’s 537-yard allowance in Pittsburgh; poor-traveling
Seahawks only one cover on the road TY.
TOTALS: UNDER (41½) in the N.Y. Jets-Indianapolis Game——Jets’ defense & ground attack will help “shrink” the game; Indy now 14-0 and will not yield points easily in final home game...
Sportsbook Breakers Newsletter 12/27
5-STAR Chicago and MINNESOTA Under 41 – This is SBB’s first 5-STAR newsletter total of the year (its one 5-STAR side was a nice winner with Green Bay in week three) and it comes off the heels of its 5-STAR Total of the Year winner last week with Baltimore and Chicago Under.
It’s pretty clear at this point that Chicago has quit on their coach and mailed in the season. Against a motivated and good defense, who was embarrassed last week against Carolina on national TV, we just don’t see the Bears scoring much.
Chicago lost last week to Baltimore, 31-7, and are 7 point under- dogs in this one. The Bears are 0-11 OU (-6.4 ppg) since November 03, 2002 as a 7+ dog with a total of 38 or more after a straight up loss (team=Bears and total>38 and 7<=line and p:L and 20021103<=date)
In that game, the Bears committed six turnovers while only forcing one. Chicago is 0-22 OU (-9.3 ppg) since November 07, 1993 when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road when the teams combined for more than nine points (team=Bears and p:AL and 2<=p:turnover margin and points+pooints>9 and NB and 19931107<=date).
Chicago has not been able to run the ball all season, and facing one of the stingiest run defense in the league which has allowed only 3.94 yards per carry. The Bears are 0-17 OU (-8.8 ppg) since Octo- ber 24, 1999 as a 6.5+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 4 yards per carry season-to-date (team=Bears and 6.5<=line and Average(1.*rushing yards@o:team and season)/Average(rushes@o:team and season)<4 and 19991024<=date).
Chicago has been quick to abandon the run this year, 31st in the league in carries with only 22.7 a game. The Vikings are 0-10 OU (-7.8 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite when their op- ponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25 (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and Average(o:rushes@o:team and season)<25 and 20030914<=date).
Minnesota is still 11-3 despite recent struggles and should be able to control Chicago in this one. The Vikings are 0-14 OU (-7.0 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite versus any team with fewer wins when not coming off a Monday night game (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and p:day!=Monday and wins>o:wins and 20030914<=date).
The shine has certainly come off the Vikings offense in the last couple weeks. The Bears can offer a bit of a resurgence here for that Minnesota offense, but in the cold on Monday night, we wouldn’t look for them to be explosive.
SBB PREDICTION: Minnesota 23, CHICAGO 10
3-STAR Denver +7.5 over PHILADELPHIA – The Jackal and Hyde act continues for the Broncos. Last week, they unconscio- nably lost to the Raiders at home, 20-19. They seem dead and buried even though they are currently still holding on to a final playoff spot. Watch out for this. Denver has had a pattern of surprising when they are least expected to. Look for them to come out with an inspired effort and focus on the run as they try to avoid complete embarrass- ment this week.
Shockingly, the Broncos managed to lose that game last week without committing a single turnover. The League is 13-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since the start of the 2008 season as a 3.5+ road dog past week 2 the game after a loss in which they committed no turnovers (A and 3.5<=line and week>2 and p:turnovers=0 and p:L and season>=2008).
Denver ran for 80 yards last week after rushing for 95 yards two weeks ago and an impressive 245 yards three weeks ago. The Broncos are 7-0-2 ATS (9.4 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks (team=Broncos and D and p:RY The Broncos are favored by 13 points last week in that loss. Denver is 8-0-2 ATS (8.4 ppg)since October 5, 2003 when they were favored by 10+ last week with a total under 50 this week (team=Broncos and total<50 and p:line<=-10 and 20031005<=date).
Philadelphia is a big favorite for the second straight week, after winning 27-13 as a eight point favorite last week. These back-to-back expectations have not boded well for Philly. The Eagles are 0-12 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since November 13, 1994 as a 7+ favorite after a straight up win as a TD+ favorite which they allowed more than 51 yards rush- ing (team=Eagles and line<=-7 and p:W and p:line<=-7 and NB and po:RY>51 and 19941113<=date).
While this game certainly isn’t meaningless, the week 17 showdown against Dallas is much, much bigger. Last year, this happened similarly with the Eagles losing 10-3 to Washington in week 16 with everything at stake before salvaging the season against Dallas. Expect this one to come down to the wire either way.
SBB PREDICTION: Denver 21, PHILADELPHIA 20
SBB’s League System of the Week
The League is 0-30-1 ATS since 2002 off a 1-3 point win where they punted two or less times, committed between 4 and 9 penalties and allowed
less than 227 rushing yards, if They’re not giving 15 or more points more than last game
These teams have failed to cover by an average of 12.7 ppg. Even those the average line in these games is -2, these teams have only won 5 of 31 outright.
This trend has been active three times already this season, including last week in the Dallas/ New Orleans game which Dallas won 24-17 as a
7.5 point dog. Houston defeated St. Louis, 16-13, last week while punting twice, committing four penalties and allowing 88 rushing yards.
This week, Houston is a 3-point dog in Miami. Consider the Dolphins
5-STAR Chicago and MINNESOTA Under 41 – This is SBB’s first 5-STAR newsletter total of the year (its one 5-STAR side was a nice winner with Green Bay in week three) and it comes off the heels of its 5-STAR Total of the Year winner last week with Baltimore and Chicago Under.
It’s pretty clear at this point that Chicago has quit on their coach and mailed in the season. Against a motivated and good defense, who was embarrassed last week against Carolina on national TV, we just don’t see the Bears scoring much.
Chicago lost last week to Baltimore, 31-7, and are 7 point under- dogs in this one. The Bears are 0-11 OU (-6.4 ppg) since November 03, 2002 as a 7+ dog with a total of 38 or more after a straight up loss (team=Bears and total>38 and 7<=line and p:L and 20021103<=date)
In that game, the Bears committed six turnovers while only forcing one. Chicago is 0-22 OU (-9.3 ppg) since November 07, 1993 when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road when the teams combined for more than nine points (team=Bears and p:AL and 2<=p:turnover margin and points+pooints>9 and NB and 19931107<=date).
Chicago has not been able to run the ball all season, and facing one of the stingiest run defense in the league which has allowed only 3.94 yards per carry. The Bears are 0-17 OU (-8.8 ppg) since Octo- ber 24, 1999 as a 6.5+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 4 yards per carry season-to-date (team=Bears and 6.5<=line and Average(1.*rushing yards@o:team and season)/Average(rushes@o:team and season)<4 and 19991024<=date).
Chicago has been quick to abandon the run this year, 31st in the league in carries with only 22.7 a game. The Vikings are 0-10 OU (-7.8 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite when their op- ponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25 (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and Average(o:rushes@o:team and season)<25 and 20030914<=date).
Minnesota is still 11-3 despite recent struggles and should be able to control Chicago in this one. The Vikings are 0-14 OU (-7.0 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite versus any team with fewer wins when not coming off a Monday night game (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and p:day!=Monday and wins>o:wins and 20030914<=date).
The shine has certainly come off the Vikings offense in the last couple weeks. The Bears can offer a bit of a resurgence here for that Minnesota offense, but in the cold on Monday night, we wouldn’t look for them to be explosive.
SBB PREDICTION: Minnesota 23, CHICAGO 10
3-STAR Denver +7.5 over PHILADELPHIA – The Jackal and Hyde act continues for the Broncos. Last week, they unconscio- nably lost to the Raiders at home, 20-19. They seem dead and buried even though they are currently still holding on to a final playoff spot. Watch out for this. Denver has had a pattern of surprising when they are least expected to. Look for them to come out with an inspired effort and focus on the run as they try to avoid complete embarrass- ment this week.
Shockingly, the Broncos managed to lose that game last week without committing a single turnover. The League is 13-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since the start of the 2008 season as a 3.5+ road dog past week 2 the game after a loss in which they committed no turnovers (A and 3.5<=line and week>2 and p:turnovers=0 and p:L and season>=2008).
Denver ran for 80 yards last week after rushing for 95 yards two weeks ago and an impressive 245 yards three weeks ago. The Broncos are 7-0-2 ATS (9.4 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks (team=Broncos and D and p:RY The Broncos are favored by 13 points last week in that loss. Denver is 8-0-2 ATS (8.4 ppg)since October 5, 2003 when they were favored by 10+ last week with a total under 50 this week (team=Broncos and total<50 and p:line<=-10 and 20031005<=date).
Philadelphia is a big favorite for the second straight week, after winning 27-13 as a eight point favorite last week. These back-to-back expectations have not boded well for Philly. The Eagles are 0-12 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since November 13, 1994 as a 7+ favorite after a straight up win as a TD+ favorite which they allowed more than 51 yards rush- ing (team=Eagles and line<=-7 and p:W and p:line<=-7 and NB and po:RY>51 and 19941113<=date).
While this game certainly isn’t meaningless, the week 17 showdown against Dallas is much, much bigger. Last year, this happened similarly with the Eagles losing 10-3 to Washington in week 16 with everything at stake before salvaging the season against Dallas. Expect this one to come down to the wire either way.
SBB PREDICTION: Denver 21, PHILADELPHIA 20
SBB’s League System of the Week
The League is 0-30-1 ATS since 2002 off a 1-3 point win where they punted two or less times, committed between 4 and 9 penalties and allowed
less than 227 rushing yards, if They’re not giving 15 or more points more than last game
These teams have failed to cover by an average of 12.7 ppg. Even those the average line in these games is -2, these teams have only won 5 of 31 outright.
This trend has been active three times already this season, including last week in the Dallas/ New Orleans game which Dallas won 24-17 as a
7.5 point dog. Houston defeated St. Louis, 16-13, last week while punting twice, committing four penalties and allowing 88 rushing yards.
This week, Houston is a 3-point dog in Miami. Consider the Dolphins
POINTWISE:
OVERALL: 4-7 IN BOWLS
1*: 1-1
2* :0-1
4*; 2-2
5*: 0-2
6*: 1-1
This contest is a rematch of sorts, as just 3 yrs ago, the Wildcats of Kentucky (+10) prevailed over the Tigers of Clemson, in this very same bowl, 28-20. For the 'Cats, this marks a school-record 4th straight bowl campaign, with 3 trips to this particular bowl included. As a matter of fact, this is UK's 4th Music City Bowl game, losing to Syracuse, 20-13, in '99. Lately, however, things have certainly gone their way, with 3 straight bowl wins. A nice turnaround for Rich Brooks, whose first 3 seasons at Lexington resulted in a combined 8-26 mark. This season, they are led by the all-purpose brilliance of Cobb, who plays QB, RB (6.4 ypr), WR (11.4 ypc), & punt returner (13.5 ypr). And RB Locke not only is the 'Cats leading rusher, but is 2nd in the SEC in all-purpose yardage. QB is a problem, as Hartline (59%) is questionable, as of this writing (ankle). But note the fact that this year, Kentucky (+131⁄2, +91⁄2) won at Auburn for the 1st time since '61, & at Georgia for the 1st time since '77, with only mighty Florida & Alabama taking the 'Cats by more than a TD. The Tigers welcomed new coach Dabo Swinney this season, & haven't missed a beat, as far as their continuance of bowl years are concerned, with this their 10th in the last 11 campaigns. Led by the irrepressible Spiller (ACC player of the year), Clemson recovered nicely from a 2-3 start, with a 6-game winning burst, in which they averaged 40.7 ppg, while reaching the 15th spot in the polls. He has set or tied 31 school records (7,416 all-purpose yds, 50 TDs, & an NCAA record of 7 KO returns, during his career). But 2 straight losses, including a late setback in the ACC title game, & Tigers haven't covered a bowl game since '03. 'Cats!
PROPHECY: Clemson 26 - KENTUCKY 24 RATING: 3
NFL Key Releases:
GREEN BAY over Seattle RATING: 3
SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit RATING: 4
BUFFALO over Atlanta RATING: 4
PHILADELPHIA over Denver RATING: 5
BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh RATING: 5
GREEN BAY 34 - Seattle 10 - (1:00) -- Five-game Pack run ended on final play at
Pitt, but still 2 up in Wild Card run, & this should clinch that spot. Are in a unique '08 Super Bowl sandwich here (Steelers/Cards), going down to Pitt on final play (19-yd pass). But note Rodgers another super game: 383 yds (3/0). He is now at 3,962 PYs & 28/7 for the year. The Seahawks have hit bottom with a 58-14 pt deficit the past 2 weeks, with Hasselbeck tossing 4 INTs in their 24-7 home loss to the 2-12 Bucs. Seattle is 6-19 ATS as a non-division RD, losing its last 5 such affairs by 25, 17, 21, 26, & 27 pts. Despite the 2-TD spot.
SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Detroit 10 - (4:05) -- Niners are now eliminated from post season play, as they succumbed to the TO bug (4 in 1st half - 3 Smith INTs) at Philly. But are still a steady play, just 22 pts from a 19-2 ATS run. In their last 3 HGs, they've allowed only 6, 3, & 9 pts, so can't expect the Lions to do much. Remember, the Lions lost their last RG, 48-3, while allowing 308 RYs, so Gore could have a field day. Detroit is minus 711⁄2 pts ATS in its last 11 games, & is 0-7 ATS vs the NFC West. Improved Niners aren't about to fold their tent yet.
ATLANTA 20- Buffalo 17 - (1:00) -- Falcons are out of it, despite win over Jets, in final 1:38, managing just 12 FDs,& 238 yds. Prevailed, thanks to recording 3 INTs vs Sanchez, & Jets botching 3 FGs, from inside the 40. Ouch! Bills got the push vs the Pats, with a TD in the final 3:02. A 28-yd drive. Note being called for 104 penalty yds in the first half. Buffalo at just 12.5 ppg in 11 of its last 12 outings, but also a solid 15-3 ATS off NewEngland, while the Falcs are 13-25 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less. And the visitor is 16-5 ATS in Buffalo tilts.
PHILADELPHIA 31 - Denver 17 - (4:15) -- Brian Dawkins returns to Philly. That's the main sidebar on this one. Eagles still a game up on the Cowboys, while the Broncos are a game up on 6 squads for a playoff spot (tied with Ravens), after losing to Oakland in the final 0:35, while absorbing a 241-80 RY deficit. They've come from 245 RYs, to 95, to 80. Eagles continue fine play: 5 straight wins, & have averaged 31.6 ppg in their last 12 HGs. Denver 7-16 ATS on Dec road, while Eagles are 8-1 ATS as Dec hosts vs a winning opponent off a SU defeat.
Baltimore 22 - PITTSBURGH 20 - (1:00) -- Five-game Steeler slide is history, but by the skin of their teeth (19-yd Ben TD toss with 0:00 left). Altho he was sacked 5 times, Roethlisberger threw for a career-high 503 yds in that escape. So yet another team at 7-7, with Baltimore a game up. Ravens a game back of Cincy, with a 79-10 pt edge in their last 2 games, but those were host affairs vs the lowly Lions & Bears..oh, my. Only TD allowed in those wipeouts: a punt return. Flacco: 4 TD passes LW, & Rice now at 1,128 RYs. Never much left on the field, when they meet. Steeler revenger, but are 4-17 ATS HFs of <4 pts.
NBA Best Bets: TORONTO, INDIANA, NEW YORK (4)
College Hoops Bets Bets: VALPARAISO, WASHINGTON (5)
OVERALL: 4-7 IN BOWLS
1*: 1-1
2* :0-1
4*; 2-2
5*: 0-2
6*: 1-1
This contest is a rematch of sorts, as just 3 yrs ago, the Wildcats of Kentucky (+10) prevailed over the Tigers of Clemson, in this very same bowl, 28-20. For the 'Cats, this marks a school-record 4th straight bowl campaign, with 3 trips to this particular bowl included. As a matter of fact, this is UK's 4th Music City Bowl game, losing to Syracuse, 20-13, in '99. Lately, however, things have certainly gone their way, with 3 straight bowl wins. A nice turnaround for Rich Brooks, whose first 3 seasons at Lexington resulted in a combined 8-26 mark. This season, they are led by the all-purpose brilliance of Cobb, who plays QB, RB (6.4 ypr), WR (11.4 ypc), & punt returner (13.5 ypr). And RB Locke not only is the 'Cats leading rusher, but is 2nd in the SEC in all-purpose yardage. QB is a problem, as Hartline (59%) is questionable, as of this writing (ankle). But note the fact that this year, Kentucky (+131⁄2, +91⁄2) won at Auburn for the 1st time since '61, & at Georgia for the 1st time since '77, with only mighty Florida & Alabama taking the 'Cats by more than a TD. The Tigers welcomed new coach Dabo Swinney this season, & haven't missed a beat, as far as their continuance of bowl years are concerned, with this their 10th in the last 11 campaigns. Led by the irrepressible Spiller (ACC player of the year), Clemson recovered nicely from a 2-3 start, with a 6-game winning burst, in which they averaged 40.7 ppg, while reaching the 15th spot in the polls. He has set or tied 31 school records (7,416 all-purpose yds, 50 TDs, & an NCAA record of 7 KO returns, during his career). But 2 straight losses, including a late setback in the ACC title game, & Tigers haven't covered a bowl game since '03. 'Cats!
PROPHECY: Clemson 26 - KENTUCKY 24 RATING: 3
NFL Key Releases:
GREEN BAY over Seattle RATING: 3
SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit RATING: 4
BUFFALO over Atlanta RATING: 4
PHILADELPHIA over Denver RATING: 5
BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh RATING: 5
GREEN BAY 34 - Seattle 10 - (1:00) -- Five-game Pack run ended on final play at
Pitt, but still 2 up in Wild Card run, & this should clinch that spot. Are in a unique '08 Super Bowl sandwich here (Steelers/Cards), going down to Pitt on final play (19-yd pass). But note Rodgers another super game: 383 yds (3/0). He is now at 3,962 PYs & 28/7 for the year. The Seahawks have hit bottom with a 58-14 pt deficit the past 2 weeks, with Hasselbeck tossing 4 INTs in their 24-7 home loss to the 2-12 Bucs. Seattle is 6-19 ATS as a non-division RD, losing its last 5 such affairs by 25, 17, 21, 26, & 27 pts. Despite the 2-TD spot.
SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Detroit 10 - (4:05) -- Niners are now eliminated from post season play, as they succumbed to the TO bug (4 in 1st half - 3 Smith INTs) at Philly. But are still a steady play, just 22 pts from a 19-2 ATS run. In their last 3 HGs, they've allowed only 6, 3, & 9 pts, so can't expect the Lions to do much. Remember, the Lions lost their last RG, 48-3, while allowing 308 RYs, so Gore could have a field day. Detroit is minus 711⁄2 pts ATS in its last 11 games, & is 0-7 ATS vs the NFC West. Improved Niners aren't about to fold their tent yet.
ATLANTA 20- Buffalo 17 - (1:00) -- Falcons are out of it, despite win over Jets, in final 1:38, managing just 12 FDs,& 238 yds. Prevailed, thanks to recording 3 INTs vs Sanchez, & Jets botching 3 FGs, from inside the 40. Ouch! Bills got the push vs the Pats, with a TD in the final 3:02. A 28-yd drive. Note being called for 104 penalty yds in the first half. Buffalo at just 12.5 ppg in 11 of its last 12 outings, but also a solid 15-3 ATS off NewEngland, while the Falcs are 13-25 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less. And the visitor is 16-5 ATS in Buffalo tilts.
PHILADELPHIA 31 - Denver 17 - (4:15) -- Brian Dawkins returns to Philly. That's the main sidebar on this one. Eagles still a game up on the Cowboys, while the Broncos are a game up on 6 squads for a playoff spot (tied with Ravens), after losing to Oakland in the final 0:35, while absorbing a 241-80 RY deficit. They've come from 245 RYs, to 95, to 80. Eagles continue fine play: 5 straight wins, & have averaged 31.6 ppg in their last 12 HGs. Denver 7-16 ATS on Dec road, while Eagles are 8-1 ATS as Dec hosts vs a winning opponent off a SU defeat.
Baltimore 22 - PITTSBURGH 20 - (1:00) -- Five-game Steeler slide is history, but by the skin of their teeth (19-yd Ben TD toss with 0:00 left). Altho he was sacked 5 times, Roethlisberger threw for a career-high 503 yds in that escape. So yet another team at 7-7, with Baltimore a game up. Ravens a game back of Cincy, with a 79-10 pt edge in their last 2 games, but those were host affairs vs the lowly Lions & Bears..oh, my. Only TD allowed in those wipeouts: a punt return. Flacco: 4 TD passes LW, & Rice now at 1,128 RYs. Never much left on the field, when they meet. Steeler revenger, but are 4-17 ATS HFs of <4 pts.
NBA Best Bets: TORONTO, INDIANA, NEW YORK (4)
College Hoops Bets Bets: VALPARAISO, WASHINGTON (5)
LOGICAL APPROACH:
OVERALL: 13-6
SIDES: 5-4
TOTALS: 8-2
1 UNIT: 4-1
2 UNIT: 2-2
3 UNIT: 6-3
These teams met just 3 seasons ago in this very Bowl where 10 point underdog Kentucky upset Clemson 28-20. The Wildcats are in a fourth straight Bowl and Clemson is Bowling for a fifth straight season. There are rumors circulating the Kentucky coach Brooks will announce his retirement either just before or after this game so there might be an emotional edge for Kentucky. Both teams are off losses with Clemson losing in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech (for the second time this season) while Kentucky fell in OT to Tennessee, loss 25 in a row to the Vols. Clemson has statistical edges on both sides of the football but the edges are not that great. Clemson RB/KR Spiller had a great season while Kentucky RB Cobb also had a solid though less heralded season. Clemson's most significant win was at Miami while Kentucky had a pair of wins over Auburn and Georgia, both on the road. Both offenses were better running than passing. Both defenses rank in the Top 20 against the pass. This portends a shortened game featuring more running than passing, lending itself to a low scoring contest. The lack of a developed passing game puts the team in the lead in great position to grind out first downs and control clock. Clemson's edge on special teams enhances their overall slight edges with the explosiveness of Spiller perhaps the difference. Clemson may have additional motivation to avenge that previous loss to Kentucky. Their wins this season came against more successful foes as Clemson's 8 wins were against teams that went 50-37 against the rest of their schedules. Kentucky's 7 wins were against teams that went just 27-38 against all others, notwithstanding the Wildcats' two SEC wins cited above. The intangible factors are pretty much even making the selection for this game more heavily weighted towards talent. That edge goes to Clemson. Clemson is forecast to win 27-16, making
CLEMSON a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: GREEN BAY - 14 over Seattle - Seattle was woeful in last week's inexplicable home loss to lowly Tampa Bay as QB Hasselbeck tossed a quartet of interceptions raising questions that he might be bothered by nagging injuries more than he is letting on. The Seahawks may well have packed it in for the season. Green Bay plays to secure a Wild Card and they are commended for their effort in last week's loss at Pittsburgh in what was a negative situation. The Pack rallied several times in that game only to lose on the game's final play. It's a big number to lay but it's hard to make a case for the underdog against a Packer offense that continues to be productive. The Packers have actually been solid on both sides of the ball, ranking # 6 in total offense and # 2 in total defense. Seattle has performed poorly on the road, losing 6 of 7 (winning only at St Louis) with every loss by double digits, 4 by 17 or more. Green Bay has feasted on lower tier teams this season and will be highly motivated to preserve their Wild Card status against a foe they should easily dominate. Green Bay wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
MIAMI - 3 over Houston - This is a Wild Card elimination game as both teams are 7-7 and the loser is eliminated from the Playoffs. The winner is not assured of a Playoff spot but they have an excellent chance to pull even with current Wild Card frontrunners Baltimore and Denver, each of whom have difficult road games this week. Houston has failed to come through several times in so-called pressure situations and last week barely beat flu ridden St Louis by a FG. Miami rallied from a deep deficit only to fall in overtime at Tennessee showing resiliency in a second straight road game. Miami seems to have the stronger will, the better coaching and a much stronger running game. Both teams have flaws but Houston's tend to be magnified at critical stages of games. Houston tends to play well early in games whereas Miami has fared better in late stages of games. There are enough edges to warrant a call on the hosts. Miami wins 27-17.
SAN FRANCISCO - 12 over Detroit - Credit Detroit with a game effort last week to rally from a 17-0 halftime deficit to twice tie Arizona at 17 and 24 before allowing the game winning TD in the final 2 minutes. Both teams are looking towards 2010 with the 49ers having brighter prospects at the moment, especially with their nicely developing offense. The emergence of QB Smith combined with an elite RB (Gore) and WR (Crabtree) form the nucleus of an offense which should have success against a defense allowing a league high 36 points per game on the road. San Francisco has 4 double digit home wins this season including each of their last two home games which were against teams much better than the Lions (Arizona and Jacksonville). Detroit will compete for a while and they seem to have turned the corner but they lack depth and experience. The 49ers have a significant edge on defense, especially against the run, and are allowing a dozen points less per game than the Lions. Coach Singletary has earned the respect of his team and they should put forth a max effort in their final home game of the season with a chance to finish at .500. San Francisco wins 34-16.
Minnesota - 7 over Chicago (Monday) - The Vikings have had their problems on the road of late, dropping their last two such contests at Arizona and Carolina by a combined 56-24 score. Chicago is playing out the string and cannot truly play spoiler as the Vikes have already clinched the NFC North title. But Minny is now in danger of losing the # 2 NFC seed to Philadelphia. We've seen teams out of contention use the national limelight as a stage to at least get some satisfaction as San Francisco upset Arizona two weeks ago and last Sunday night saw Carolina upset these very Vikings. But Chicago has not shown the same signs entering this contest as have those other teams that pulled off big home upsets. The night cold will be a challenge for the Vikes in general but not for QB Favre who enjoyed these conditions when with Green Bay. Much will be made of his sideline confrontation with Coach Childress who wanted to take him out of last week's game with the Vikes up 7-6 but it's not really an issue. It's tempting to make a case for the Bears but the edges just are not there. With Minnesota hearing Philly footsteps they should put forth a fully focused effort here to get back on track as a legitimate NFC contender. They have all the fundamental edges. Minnesota wins 27-13.
Best of the Rest (Opinions) TENNESSEE - 3 over San Diego (Friday) Oakland + 3 ½ over CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI - 14 over Kansas City Baltimore + 2 ½ over PITTSBURGH
Denver + 7 over PHILADELPHIA ARIZONA - 14 over St Louis
The Rest (Leans) Buffalo + 9 over ATLANTA Carolina + 7 over N Y GIANTS
NEW ORLEANS 14 over Tampa Bay Jacksonville + 7 ½ over NEW ENGLAND
INDIANAPOLIS - 5 over N Y Jets WASHINGTON + 7 over Dallas
Best of the NFL Totals San Diego/Tennessee OVER 47 Buffalo/Atlanta UNDER 41
Baltimore/Pittsburgh UNDER 41 Detroit/San Francisco OVER 41 ½
N Y Jets/Indianapolis UNDER 40 ½ Dallas/Washington UNDER 42
OVERALL: 13-6
SIDES: 5-4
TOTALS: 8-2
1 UNIT: 4-1
2 UNIT: 2-2
3 UNIT: 6-3
These teams met just 3 seasons ago in this very Bowl where 10 point underdog Kentucky upset Clemson 28-20. The Wildcats are in a fourth straight Bowl and Clemson is Bowling for a fifth straight season. There are rumors circulating the Kentucky coach Brooks will announce his retirement either just before or after this game so there might be an emotional edge for Kentucky. Both teams are off losses with Clemson losing in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech (for the second time this season) while Kentucky fell in OT to Tennessee, loss 25 in a row to the Vols. Clemson has statistical edges on both sides of the football but the edges are not that great. Clemson RB/KR Spiller had a great season while Kentucky RB Cobb also had a solid though less heralded season. Clemson's most significant win was at Miami while Kentucky had a pair of wins over Auburn and Georgia, both on the road. Both offenses were better running than passing. Both defenses rank in the Top 20 against the pass. This portends a shortened game featuring more running than passing, lending itself to a low scoring contest. The lack of a developed passing game puts the team in the lead in great position to grind out first downs and control clock. Clemson's edge on special teams enhances their overall slight edges with the explosiveness of Spiller perhaps the difference. Clemson may have additional motivation to avenge that previous loss to Kentucky. Their wins this season came against more successful foes as Clemson's 8 wins were against teams that went 50-37 against the rest of their schedules. Kentucky's 7 wins were against teams that went just 27-38 against all others, notwithstanding the Wildcats' two SEC wins cited above. The intangible factors are pretty much even making the selection for this game more heavily weighted towards talent. That edge goes to Clemson. Clemson is forecast to win 27-16, making
CLEMSON a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: GREEN BAY - 14 over Seattle - Seattle was woeful in last week's inexplicable home loss to lowly Tampa Bay as QB Hasselbeck tossed a quartet of interceptions raising questions that he might be bothered by nagging injuries more than he is letting on. The Seahawks may well have packed it in for the season. Green Bay plays to secure a Wild Card and they are commended for their effort in last week's loss at Pittsburgh in what was a negative situation. The Pack rallied several times in that game only to lose on the game's final play. It's a big number to lay but it's hard to make a case for the underdog against a Packer offense that continues to be productive. The Packers have actually been solid on both sides of the ball, ranking # 6 in total offense and # 2 in total defense. Seattle has performed poorly on the road, losing 6 of 7 (winning only at St Louis) with every loss by double digits, 4 by 17 or more. Green Bay has feasted on lower tier teams this season and will be highly motivated to preserve their Wild Card status against a foe they should easily dominate. Green Bay wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
MIAMI - 3 over Houston - This is a Wild Card elimination game as both teams are 7-7 and the loser is eliminated from the Playoffs. The winner is not assured of a Playoff spot but they have an excellent chance to pull even with current Wild Card frontrunners Baltimore and Denver, each of whom have difficult road games this week. Houston has failed to come through several times in so-called pressure situations and last week barely beat flu ridden St Louis by a FG. Miami rallied from a deep deficit only to fall in overtime at Tennessee showing resiliency in a second straight road game. Miami seems to have the stronger will, the better coaching and a much stronger running game. Both teams have flaws but Houston's tend to be magnified at critical stages of games. Houston tends to play well early in games whereas Miami has fared better in late stages of games. There are enough edges to warrant a call on the hosts. Miami wins 27-17.
SAN FRANCISCO - 12 over Detroit - Credit Detroit with a game effort last week to rally from a 17-0 halftime deficit to twice tie Arizona at 17 and 24 before allowing the game winning TD in the final 2 minutes. Both teams are looking towards 2010 with the 49ers having brighter prospects at the moment, especially with their nicely developing offense. The emergence of QB Smith combined with an elite RB (Gore) and WR (Crabtree) form the nucleus of an offense which should have success against a defense allowing a league high 36 points per game on the road. San Francisco has 4 double digit home wins this season including each of their last two home games which were against teams much better than the Lions (Arizona and Jacksonville). Detroit will compete for a while and they seem to have turned the corner but they lack depth and experience. The 49ers have a significant edge on defense, especially against the run, and are allowing a dozen points less per game than the Lions. Coach Singletary has earned the respect of his team and they should put forth a max effort in their final home game of the season with a chance to finish at .500. San Francisco wins 34-16.
Minnesota - 7 over Chicago (Monday) - The Vikings have had their problems on the road of late, dropping their last two such contests at Arizona and Carolina by a combined 56-24 score. Chicago is playing out the string and cannot truly play spoiler as the Vikes have already clinched the NFC North title. But Minny is now in danger of losing the # 2 NFC seed to Philadelphia. We've seen teams out of contention use the national limelight as a stage to at least get some satisfaction as San Francisco upset Arizona two weeks ago and last Sunday night saw Carolina upset these very Vikings. But Chicago has not shown the same signs entering this contest as have those other teams that pulled off big home upsets. The night cold will be a challenge for the Vikes in general but not for QB Favre who enjoyed these conditions when with Green Bay. Much will be made of his sideline confrontation with Coach Childress who wanted to take him out of last week's game with the Vikes up 7-6 but it's not really an issue. It's tempting to make a case for the Bears but the edges just are not there. With Minnesota hearing Philly footsteps they should put forth a fully focused effort here to get back on track as a legitimate NFC contender. They have all the fundamental edges. Minnesota wins 27-13.
Best of the Rest (Opinions) TENNESSEE - 3 over San Diego (Friday) Oakland + 3 ½ over CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI - 14 over Kansas City Baltimore + 2 ½ over PITTSBURGH
Denver + 7 over PHILADELPHIA ARIZONA - 14 over St Louis
The Rest (Leans) Buffalo + 9 over ATLANTA Carolina + 7 over N Y GIANTS
NEW ORLEANS 14 over Tampa Bay Jacksonville + 7 ½ over NEW ENGLAND
INDIANAPOLIS - 5 over N Y Jets WASHINGTON + 7 over Dallas
Best of the NFL Totals San Diego/Tennessee OVER 47 Buffalo/Atlanta UNDER 41
Baltimore/Pittsburgh UNDER 41 Detroit/San Francisco OVER 41 ½
N Y Jets/Indianapolis UNDER 40 ½ Dallas/Washington UNDER 42
NC POWERPLAYS:
4-5 OVERALL IN BOWLS
NON RATED PLAYS :2-4
4* 2-1
The Tigers have an explosive offense and are forecasted to score 34 points and win by 14 pts. Their
D also has stars and PP is calling for them to hold the Wildcats to 278 yds & they have a ST edge.
4★ CLEMSON 34 KENTUCKY 20
PRO PLAY OF THE WEEK
4* San Francisco 49ers
4-5 OVERALL IN BOWLS
NON RATED PLAYS :2-4
4* 2-1
The Tigers have an explosive offense and are forecasted to score 34 points and win by 14 pts. Their
D also has stars and PP is calling for them to hold the Wildcats to 278 yds & they have a ST edge.
4★ CLEMSON 34 KENTUCKY 20
PRO PLAY OF THE WEEK
4* San Francisco 49ers
NELLYS GREENSHEET
OVERALL: 5-7 IN BOWLS
1*: 3-2
2*: 2-2
3*: 0-1
4*: 0-2
Clemson (-7) Kentucky (52)
Kentucky upset Clemson in the 2006 Music City Bowl as a double-digit underdog and the
Wildcats have won bowl games each of the last three seasons including this bowl twice.
Playing close to home should be an edge for the Wildcats and motivation will likely be
stronger on the side of the underdog as Clemson had hopes of greater things this season.
Clemson lost narrowly in the ACC championship and the consolation prize is a significant drop
from the Orange Bowl bid that Georgia Tech received for being just a tiny bit better in that
game. Kentucky endured a challenging SEC schedule and Clemson was soundly defeated by
South Carolina from the conference. The situation was difficult for Clemson in that game but
the Tigers only had two wins away from home all year and they needed OT in one of them.
Statistically this looks like a mismatch as Clemson has edges on both sides of the ball but
Kentucky has found ways to stay in games. The Wildcats are also a deep team as injuries
have allowed several players to become comfortable in many roles. Kentucky closed the year
winning five of the final seven games with the final game loss to Tennessee coming in
overtime. Kentucky won three SEC road games including two wins against bowl teams and
the Wildcats are a team that can find a way to play competitively here. Clemson has several
great players led by C.J. Spiller who will always be a threat on special teams but QB Kyle
Parker completed just 55 percent of his passes on the year and threw 12 interceptions and
Kentucky’s defense will play better than the numbers indicate as bad losses to Florida and
Alabama greatly weighed on the statistics. This game projects to be a lower scoring contest
even though most recent Clemson games have played ‘over’ as both offenses should be
managed by defenses that will be well prepared. CLEMSON BY 3
RATING 2: Kentucky (+7) over Clemson
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (52) Clemson/Kentuck
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 PITTSBURGH (-2½) over Baltimore
RATING 4 JACKSONVILLE (+8) over New England
RATING 3 BUFFALO (+8) over Atlanta
RATING 2 SAN FRANCISCO (-11½) over Detroit
RATING 1 HOUSTON (+3) over Miami
PITTSBURGH (-2½) Baltimore (41) 12:00 PM
Even if it does not ultimately lead to a playoff spot, last week’s win was big for the Steelers
and shows that this is still an elite caliber team despite some major bumps in the road this
season. Baltimore has cruised to back-to-back blowout wins against the NFC North but the
Ravens have been suspect against quality competition and there has been little success for
this franchise in this stadium. The Ravens won the first meeting between these teams, but
barely, and with QB Roethlisberger on the sidelines so this will be a key revenge spot. The
Ravens look like a playoff team this week but that could change in a hurry as this defense is
not nearly as strong as its reputation. STEELERS BY 10
NEW ENGLAND (-8) Jacksonville (43½) 12:00 PM
The Patriots had nearly as many yards in Buffalo penalties as they did on offense last week as
this team is out of sync still. Jacksonville’s offense had an impressive performance last week
but it was not enough to upset the Colts. This is a do-or-die game for the Jaguars who are in
favorable position among the 7-7 teams in the AFC picture should Denver and Baltimore
falter. Jacksonville faces Cleveland next week so this is a team that is far from out of it. New
England has been a dominant home team this season but the Patriots have been a poor ATS
team in recent years as big favorites. New England has some breathing room with the
Dolphins and Jets losing last week. PATRIOTS BY 3
ATLANTA (-8) Buffalo (41½) 12:00 PM
At 7-7 Atlanta is still technically alive in the playoff race but the odds are quite steep. The
Falcons have had a disappointing year but can still close the season with a winning record
with a strong finish. Buffalo actually out-gained New England last week but was on the wrong
end of a lot of penalties to fall to 5-9. The Bills have proven to be capable underdogs as the
defense has a knack for creating turnovers but the offense has a hard time staying on the
field. The Falcons got QB Matt Ryan back last week but the offense has averaged just 15-
points per game the last four weeks. FALCONS BY 4
SAN FRANCISCO (-11½) Detroit (41) 3:05 PM
Drew Stanton played the second half for the Lions last week and though he was not great, the
team rallied when he was in the game. Look for Stanton to start this week if Matthew Stafford
is still out of commission. The 49ers slim playoff hopes crashed last week with turnovers being
the culprit. San Francisco has won and covered in the past three home games while Detroit
has been a terrible ATS team in any situation, including just one road cover all season. San
Francisco is a risky team to lay points with but the Lions really are that bad despite showing a
bit of life last week in a game that should never have been as close as it was. 49ERS by 16
MIAMI (-3) Houston (45) 12:00 PM
Houston and Miami are both lumped into the 7-7 crowd in the AFC playoff race as the
Dolphins blew a great opportunity last week, losing in overtime. The chances for either team
are not particularly great as both teams will face very tough games next week as well. Miami
has some hope as they have a win over Jacksonville, the team with the best conference
record of the 7-7 teams. Denver and Baltimore are both a game ahead of the pace however.
Houston has out-scored foes by 41 points this season while Miami has been out-scored but
the Dolphins have faced the top rated schedule in the NFL. Miami is a tough team to trust as
home favorite while the Texans appear to have more potential. TEXANS BY 3
NFL OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
NFL: ‘UNDER’ Tampa Bay at New Orleans
The last five Bucs games have all played ‘under’ as the offense had scored just 57 points in
that span. Tampa Bay’s defense has been respectable in recent weeks including last
week’s big win in Seattle. The total in any New Orleans game will be inflated and this could
be a tough spot for the team after losing its first game last week. The Saints have scored
just 73 points in regulation over the last three games which is well down from the season
numbers and there will be a great emphasis on the defensive side of the ball this week off
the loss. 45 points were scored in the first meeting between these teams to stay ‘under’ the
total and 21 of those points were added late in the game. Drew Brees had just 187 yards
passing in the first meeting and both teams will likely run the ball frequently.
OVERALL: 5-7 IN BOWLS
1*: 3-2
2*: 2-2
3*: 0-1
4*: 0-2
Clemson (-7) Kentucky (52)
Kentucky upset Clemson in the 2006 Music City Bowl as a double-digit underdog and the
Wildcats have won bowl games each of the last three seasons including this bowl twice.
Playing close to home should be an edge for the Wildcats and motivation will likely be
stronger on the side of the underdog as Clemson had hopes of greater things this season.
Clemson lost narrowly in the ACC championship and the consolation prize is a significant drop
from the Orange Bowl bid that Georgia Tech received for being just a tiny bit better in that
game. Kentucky endured a challenging SEC schedule and Clemson was soundly defeated by
South Carolina from the conference. The situation was difficult for Clemson in that game but
the Tigers only had two wins away from home all year and they needed OT in one of them.
Statistically this looks like a mismatch as Clemson has edges on both sides of the ball but
Kentucky has found ways to stay in games. The Wildcats are also a deep team as injuries
have allowed several players to become comfortable in many roles. Kentucky closed the year
winning five of the final seven games with the final game loss to Tennessee coming in
overtime. Kentucky won three SEC road games including two wins against bowl teams and
the Wildcats are a team that can find a way to play competitively here. Clemson has several
great players led by C.J. Spiller who will always be a threat on special teams but QB Kyle
Parker completed just 55 percent of his passes on the year and threw 12 interceptions and
Kentucky’s defense will play better than the numbers indicate as bad losses to Florida and
Alabama greatly weighed on the statistics. This game projects to be a lower scoring contest
even though most recent Clemson games have played ‘over’ as both offenses should be
managed by defenses that will be well prepared. CLEMSON BY 3
RATING 2: Kentucky (+7) over Clemson
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (52) Clemson/Kentuck
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 PITTSBURGH (-2½) over Baltimore
RATING 4 JACKSONVILLE (+8) over New England
RATING 3 BUFFALO (+8) over Atlanta
RATING 2 SAN FRANCISCO (-11½) over Detroit
RATING 1 HOUSTON (+3) over Miami
PITTSBURGH (-2½) Baltimore (41) 12:00 PM
Even if it does not ultimately lead to a playoff spot, last week’s win was big for the Steelers
and shows that this is still an elite caliber team despite some major bumps in the road this
season. Baltimore has cruised to back-to-back blowout wins against the NFC North but the
Ravens have been suspect against quality competition and there has been little success for
this franchise in this stadium. The Ravens won the first meeting between these teams, but
barely, and with QB Roethlisberger on the sidelines so this will be a key revenge spot. The
Ravens look like a playoff team this week but that could change in a hurry as this defense is
not nearly as strong as its reputation. STEELERS BY 10
NEW ENGLAND (-8) Jacksonville (43½) 12:00 PM
The Patriots had nearly as many yards in Buffalo penalties as they did on offense last week as
this team is out of sync still. Jacksonville’s offense had an impressive performance last week
but it was not enough to upset the Colts. This is a do-or-die game for the Jaguars who are in
favorable position among the 7-7 teams in the AFC picture should Denver and Baltimore
falter. Jacksonville faces Cleveland next week so this is a team that is far from out of it. New
England has been a dominant home team this season but the Patriots have been a poor ATS
team in recent years as big favorites. New England has some breathing room with the
Dolphins and Jets losing last week. PATRIOTS BY 3
ATLANTA (-8) Buffalo (41½) 12:00 PM
At 7-7 Atlanta is still technically alive in the playoff race but the odds are quite steep. The
Falcons have had a disappointing year but can still close the season with a winning record
with a strong finish. Buffalo actually out-gained New England last week but was on the wrong
end of a lot of penalties to fall to 5-9. The Bills have proven to be capable underdogs as the
defense has a knack for creating turnovers but the offense has a hard time staying on the
field. The Falcons got QB Matt Ryan back last week but the offense has averaged just 15-
points per game the last four weeks. FALCONS BY 4
SAN FRANCISCO (-11½) Detroit (41) 3:05 PM
Drew Stanton played the second half for the Lions last week and though he was not great, the
team rallied when he was in the game. Look for Stanton to start this week if Matthew Stafford
is still out of commission. The 49ers slim playoff hopes crashed last week with turnovers being
the culprit. San Francisco has won and covered in the past three home games while Detroit
has been a terrible ATS team in any situation, including just one road cover all season. San
Francisco is a risky team to lay points with but the Lions really are that bad despite showing a
bit of life last week in a game that should never have been as close as it was. 49ERS by 16
MIAMI (-3) Houston (45) 12:00 PM
Houston and Miami are both lumped into the 7-7 crowd in the AFC playoff race as the
Dolphins blew a great opportunity last week, losing in overtime. The chances for either team
are not particularly great as both teams will face very tough games next week as well. Miami
has some hope as they have a win over Jacksonville, the team with the best conference
record of the 7-7 teams. Denver and Baltimore are both a game ahead of the pace however.
Houston has out-scored foes by 41 points this season while Miami has been out-scored but
the Dolphins have faced the top rated schedule in the NFL. Miami is a tough team to trust as
home favorite while the Texans appear to have more potential. TEXANS BY 3
NFL OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
NFL: ‘UNDER’ Tampa Bay at New Orleans
The last five Bucs games have all played ‘under’ as the offense had scored just 57 points in
that span. Tampa Bay’s defense has been respectable in recent weeks including last
week’s big win in Seattle. The total in any New Orleans game will be inflated and this could
be a tough spot for the team after losing its first game last week. The Saints have scored
just 73 points in regulation over the last three games which is well down from the season
numbers and there will be a great emphasis on the defensive side of the ball this week off
the loss. 45 points were scored in the first meeting between these teams to stay ‘under’ the
total and 21 of those points were added late in the game. Drew Brees had just 187 yards
passing in the first meeting and both teams will likely run the ball frequently.
