Bookies Battle The Point Spread! Week 16
AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!!
While there are usually no changes in the last few week of the season, this years going to be an exception......and don't say I didn't tell you so 2-3 weeks ago.
Johnny "On The" Spot, from Bill's Gambling Hall, formerly the Barbary Coast, has broken into the top 5 in a tie for 4th and 5th. This guy is a 2 time champ, and always seems to be near the top. Good luck Johnny. He knocks out Al Beal who had been in the top 5 most of the season Al is from Paris-LV.
Well Josh Pool still leads the pack, but he's starting to struggle with an 6-10 week. As you can see, this week the MNF game is included in this weeks standings. Josh now has a 132-92 record which is a 8 game lead over everyone else. Not that it can't happen, but it's going to be hard to make up that many games lead. Jim Garner, who made an impressive rush to get into the top 5, is still at it and leaps up to 2nd place after posting a 11-5 record this last week. Tied with Jim is David Snock. They both have a 124-100 record.
Tied for 4th and 5th are three bookies, but I had to throw one of them out to make a top 5, so the person with the worst record last week got eliminated. And the honor went to Aaron Kessler from the Golden Nugget-Laughlin. He had a 7-9 record last week. The above mentioned Johnny Spot is tied with Cavin Kishi from the Monte Carlo. who dropped out of the top 5 last week.
As far as the lines they made their picks against, there are 9 differences. The are: GB -13(14), ATL -7(90), MIA -2(3), PIT -1(2.5), ARZ-13(14), SF-10(11.5), IND-6(5), DAL_3.5(6.5), CHI-1(+7). The big differences being DAL and MIN. Sooo! Let's get started!
JOSH POOL FIESTA RANCHO LW 6-10 YTD 132-92
SD...GB...OAK..CIN..BUF..HOU..NYG..NO...NE...PIT.. DEN..STL..DET..IND..WAS..MIN
JIM GARNER EDGEWATER-LAUGH LW 11-5- YTD 124-100
TEN..GB...CLE..CIN..BUF..MIA..NYG..TB...JAX..PIT.. PHI...ARZ..SF...IND...DAL...MIN
DAVID SNOCK PLANET HOLLYWOOD LW 10-6 YTD 124-100
SD...SEA..OAK..CIN..ATL..MIA..NYG..NO...NE..BAL..P HI...ARZ..SF...IND...WAS..MIN
JOHNNY SPOT BILL'S GAMBLING HALL LW 10-6 YTD 121-103
SD...SEA..CLE..CIN..ATL..MIA..NYG..TB...JAX..BAL.. DEN..STL..DET..IND...WAS..MIN
CAVIN KISHI MONTE CARLO LW 9-7 YTD 121-103
SD...GB...OAK..KC...ATL..MIA..CAR...NO...NE...BAL. .PHI..STL...SF...IND...WAS..MIN
CONSENSUS ALL HOTELS LW 8-8 YTD 114-110
SD...GB...OAK..CIN..BUF..MIA..NYG..TB...NE...BAL.. PHI..ARZ...SF..IND...WAS...MIN
35...33....28.....31....32....39...29.....29..29.. ..29....27....30....28...35.....28.....42
The above number represents the amount of times that team was selected by all 49 bookies.
There are 2 teams selected unanimously by the bookies, and they are IND and MIN. With MIN, you have to factor in that the line they selected at was MIN +1, so you have to throw this game out as far as I'm concerned. Teams that were selected 4-1 were: SD, CIN, MIA, NYG, WAS. It seems that all these selection match up with exactly what the Consensus has selected, so no edge there.
Hope some of this helps you in your picks this week!
So have a MERRY XMAS and we'll see you next week for New Year.
AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!!
While there are usually no changes in the last few week of the season, this years going to be an exception......and don't say I didn't tell you so 2-3 weeks ago.
Johnny "On The" Spot, from Bill's Gambling Hall, formerly the Barbary Coast, has broken into the top 5 in a tie for 4th and 5th. This guy is a 2 time champ, and always seems to be near the top. Good luck Johnny. He knocks out Al Beal who had been in the top 5 most of the season Al is from Paris-LV.
Well Josh Pool still leads the pack, but he's starting to struggle with an 6-10 week. As you can see, this week the MNF game is included in this weeks standings. Josh now has a 132-92 record which is a 8 game lead over everyone else. Not that it can't happen, but it's going to be hard to make up that many games lead. Jim Garner, who made an impressive rush to get into the top 5, is still at it and leaps up to 2nd place after posting a 11-5 record this last week. Tied with Jim is David Snock. They both have a 124-100 record.
Tied for 4th and 5th are three bookies, but I had to throw one of them out to make a top 5, so the person with the worst record last week got eliminated. And the honor went to Aaron Kessler from the Golden Nugget-Laughlin. He had a 7-9 record last week. The above mentioned Johnny Spot is tied with Cavin Kishi from the Monte Carlo. who dropped out of the top 5 last week.
As far as the lines they made their picks against, there are 9 differences. The are: GB -13(14), ATL -7(90), MIA -2(3), PIT -1(2.5), ARZ-13(14), SF-10(11.5), IND-6(5), DAL_3.5(6.5), CHI-1(+7). The big differences being DAL and MIN. Sooo! Let's get started!
JOSH POOL FIESTA RANCHO LW 6-10 YTD 132-92
SD...GB...OAK..CIN..BUF..HOU..NYG..NO...NE...PIT.. DEN..STL..DET..IND..WAS..MIN
JIM GARNER EDGEWATER-LAUGH LW 11-5- YTD 124-100
TEN..GB...CLE..CIN..BUF..MIA..NYG..TB...JAX..PIT.. PHI...ARZ..SF...IND...DAL...MIN
DAVID SNOCK PLANET HOLLYWOOD LW 10-6 YTD 124-100
SD...SEA..OAK..CIN..ATL..MIA..NYG..NO...NE..BAL..P HI...ARZ..SF...IND...WAS..MIN
JOHNNY SPOT BILL'S GAMBLING HALL LW 10-6 YTD 121-103
SD...SEA..CLE..CIN..ATL..MIA..NYG..TB...JAX..BAL.. DEN..STL..DET..IND...WAS..MIN
CAVIN KISHI MONTE CARLO LW 9-7 YTD 121-103
SD...GB...OAK..KC...ATL..MIA..CAR...NO...NE...BAL. .PHI..STL...SF...IND...WAS..MIN
CONSENSUS ALL HOTELS LW 8-8 YTD 114-110
SD...GB...OAK..CIN..BUF..MIA..NYG..TB...NE...BAL.. PHI..ARZ...SF..IND...WAS...MIN
35...33....28.....31....32....39...29.....29..29.. ..29....27....30....28...35.....28.....42
The above number represents the amount of times that team was selected by all 49 bookies.
There are 2 teams selected unanimously by the bookies, and they are IND and MIN. With MIN, you have to factor in that the line they selected at was MIN +1, so you have to throw this game out as far as I'm concerned. Teams that were selected 4-1 were: SD, CIN, MIA, NYG, WAS. It seems that all these selection match up with exactly what the Consensus has selected, so no edge there.
Hope some of this helps you in your picks this week!
So have a MERRY XMAS and we'll see you next week for New Year.
Norm Hitzges
NFL
Double Plays
· Dallas -6.5 vs Washington
· Baltimore +2.5 vs Pittsburgh
· Jets/Colts Under 40.5
Single Plays
· Houston +3 vs Miami
· Jacksonville +7.5 v sNew England
· San Francisco 12 vs Detroit
· Jets +5.5 vs Colts
· Chicago +7 vs Minnesota
· Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 42
· New England/Jacksonville Under 44
· Houston/Miami Over 45
NFL
Double Plays
· Dallas -6.5 vs Washington
· Baltimore +2.5 vs Pittsburgh
· Jets/Colts Under 40.5
Single Plays
· Houston +3 vs Miami
· Jacksonville +7.5 v sNew England
· San Francisco 12 vs Detroit
· Jets +5.5 vs Colts
· Chicago +7 vs Minnesota
· Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 42
· New England/Jacksonville Under 44
· Houston/Miami Over 45
JB's Computer Picks
Sunday, December 27th, 2009 (eastern time)
Bills +9
Kansas City Chiefs +13½
Oakland Raiders +3
Seattle Seahawks +14
Houston Texans +3
New York Giants -7
Jacksonville Jaguars +7½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14
Pittsburgh Steelers -2½
Arizona Cardinals -14
Detroit Lions +12
Indianapolis Colts -5½ *** best bet
Philadelphia Eagles -7
Dallas Cowboys -7
Minnesota Vikings -7
Sunday, December 27th, 2009 (eastern time)
Bills +9
Kansas City Chiefs +13½
Oakland Raiders +3
Seattle Seahawks +14
Houston Texans +3
New York Giants -7
Jacksonville Jaguars +7½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14
Pittsburgh Steelers -2½
Arizona Cardinals -14
Detroit Lions +12
Indianapolis Colts -5½ *** best bet
Philadelphia Eagles -7
Dallas Cowboys -7
Minnesota Vikings -7
FleaPicker
LW:6-8-2.
NFL ATS: 109-95-4 (54%)
Picks in Bold, Top Plays with ***
san diego @ ***TENNESSEE -3
seattle @ ***GREEN BAY -14
OAKLAND @ cleveland -3
KANSAS CITY @ cincinnati -14
buffalo @ ATLANTA -9
houston @ MIAMI -3
carolina @ ***NY GIANTS -7
tampa bay @ NEW ORLEANS -14
JACKSONVILLE @ new england -8
baltimore @ PITTSBURGH -3
st louis @ ***ARIZONA -14
DETROIT @ san francisco -12
DENVER @ philadelphia -7
ny jets @ INDIANAPOLIS -5.5
dallas -7 @ WASHINGTON
minnesota -7 @ CHICAGO
LW:6-8-2.
NFL ATS: 109-95-4 (54%)
Picks in Bold, Top Plays with ***
san diego @ ***TENNESSEE -3
seattle @ ***GREEN BAY -14
OAKLAND @ cleveland -3
KANSAS CITY @ cincinnati -14
buffalo @ ATLANTA -9
houston @ MIAMI -3
carolina @ ***NY GIANTS -7
tampa bay @ NEW ORLEANS -14
JACKSONVILLE @ new england -8
baltimore @ PITTSBURGH -3
st louis @ ***ARIZONA -14
DETROIT @ san francisco -12
DENVER @ philadelphia -7
ny jets @ INDIANAPOLIS -5.5
dallas -7 @ WASHINGTON
minnesota -7 @ CHICAGO
bdougsports
Sunday December 27, 2009
Broncos +7 @ Eagles
Underdogs coming off a loss in which they were big favorites (vs. Raiders) are usually money.For instance the Seahawks lost as 7 point favorites to the Bucs last week and are now 14.5 point dogs to the Packers. That is a 21 point line swing! The only reason why we aren’t jumping on that is because the Seahawks really are awful and could easily lose by 30. This matchup poses a better shot at cashing in on this trend. The Broncos are a very good team and are fighting for their playoff lives. The Eagles are so hot right now, but can lose this game and still make the playoffs. It also seems whenever the Eagles get hot and backed big by the public they fail. Examples: The Eagles were 14 point favorites against the Jamarcus Russell led Raiders and lost. They were also laying 3 at home against a struggling Cowboys team and lost. Brian Dawkins will make a return to Philly and should be amped. The Broncos need this game more than the Eagles and after a loss to a weak divisional foe we should get full effort from the Donkeys.
Ravens/Steelers OVER 41
Forecast calls for chance of snow showers on Sunday in the Steel City where these two divisional foes try to keep their respective playoff hopes alive. The Ravens are coming in at 8-6 and are in control of their own destiny. The Steelers need to win out and get some help with about 85 teams tied at 7-7 right now. Baltimore won the first matchup at their house in a 20-17 in an OT slugfest that featured Dennis Dixon at QB for the Steelers. Big Ben is back for this one fresh off his 500-yard passing game. The Ravens meanwhile just steamrolled Detroit and Chicago by a combined score of 79-10 (no, seriously). We think this one will be another competitive game with the offenses showcasing the talent and this one sailing over the total.
Jaguars +8 @ Patriots
The Pats have been good at home but we still don’t think they should be laying more than a TD. We got a push with Buffalo last week but New England gave Buffalo every chance to cover that game. The Pats defense looked solid, but their offense still seemed off. The Pats need one more win and it probably will come here because the Jags are choke artists. Regardless we think MJD and the gang can stay within a TD. The Jags lost a tough one to Indy last Thursday and now have a week and a half to prepare for this one. 8 points is tough to cover, we’ll take the dog.
Bills +9 @ Falcons
This line has the potential to get up into double digits come kickoff, so if you like it like we do, it may be a wise idea to wait until Sunday. The Bills are looking at starting Brian Brohm from Louisville at QB for this one. We think that's actually a good thing, considering the other schmucks haven't done all that much, why not give the young kid a look and see if he could be the future of the franchise. The Bills have played tough football since Perry Fewell took over and we look for that to continue here. The Falcons are out of the playoff hunt and we don't think they have much to play for here. Yes, the NFL is a prideful league and no game is meaningless, but this looks likes a spot for the Falcons to be a little flat.
Giants -7 vs. Panthers
Great spot here for the G-men. They finally seemed to get back on track against the Skins (we missed that one), and the Panthers are coming off a big upset win over the Brett Favres. The Panthers aren’t going to the playoffs and may be happy to call it a year after a nice upset victory. The Giants meanwhile need to win out for a chance to make the playoffs. They will be fully focused for this one and the Panthers may be willing to lay over. One concern is the revenge factor as the Giants beat the Panthers late last year in OT to knock the Panthers down a seed. That shouldn’t be a big concern though, we like the revamped Giants to unload and look forward to making a potential run.
Lions +12.5 @ 49ers
Matthew Stafford just got put on IR and the Detroit QB has not been announced yet. Daunte Culpepper has played fair but not great. Drew Stanton played ok in relief of him last week and will likely get the start this week. The Lions outscored the Cards 24-14 in the second half with Stanton directing the offense. Throw in that double digit dogs were 3-1 ATS last week and we think that the Lions are severely undervalued here. Grab the points.
Raiders +3.5 @ Browns
The Browns win a couple in a row, one a primetime game against a division foe and another against the crappy Chiefs and now they deserve to be laying points? Come on now! The Raiders have been terrible after a win, but Charlie Frye is getting to play against the team that released him so they guy will be fired up. On the flip side, the Browns will be without Brady Quinn and DA has been awful this year. Oakland is 3-4 on the road, and the Browns are just 1-5 at home. They were given a 48 hour extension to sell out or the game will be blacked out. After 2 wins the Browns ay be fat and happy. Rob Ryan coached the Raiders but that shouldn't help because his defense is plain vanilla.
Sunday December 27, 2009
Broncos +7 @ Eagles
Underdogs coming off a loss in which they were big favorites (vs. Raiders) are usually money.For instance the Seahawks lost as 7 point favorites to the Bucs last week and are now 14.5 point dogs to the Packers. That is a 21 point line swing! The only reason why we aren’t jumping on that is because the Seahawks really are awful and could easily lose by 30. This matchup poses a better shot at cashing in on this trend. The Broncos are a very good team and are fighting for their playoff lives. The Eagles are so hot right now, but can lose this game and still make the playoffs. It also seems whenever the Eagles get hot and backed big by the public they fail. Examples: The Eagles were 14 point favorites against the Jamarcus Russell led Raiders and lost. They were also laying 3 at home against a struggling Cowboys team and lost. Brian Dawkins will make a return to Philly and should be amped. The Broncos need this game more than the Eagles and after a loss to a weak divisional foe we should get full effort from the Donkeys.
Ravens/Steelers OVER 41
Forecast calls for chance of snow showers on Sunday in the Steel City where these two divisional foes try to keep their respective playoff hopes alive. The Ravens are coming in at 8-6 and are in control of their own destiny. The Steelers need to win out and get some help with about 85 teams tied at 7-7 right now. Baltimore won the first matchup at their house in a 20-17 in an OT slugfest that featured Dennis Dixon at QB for the Steelers. Big Ben is back for this one fresh off his 500-yard passing game. The Ravens meanwhile just steamrolled Detroit and Chicago by a combined score of 79-10 (no, seriously). We think this one will be another competitive game with the offenses showcasing the talent and this one sailing over the total.
Jaguars +8 @ Patriots
The Pats have been good at home but we still don’t think they should be laying more than a TD. We got a push with Buffalo last week but New England gave Buffalo every chance to cover that game. The Pats defense looked solid, but their offense still seemed off. The Pats need one more win and it probably will come here because the Jags are choke artists. Regardless we think MJD and the gang can stay within a TD. The Jags lost a tough one to Indy last Thursday and now have a week and a half to prepare for this one. 8 points is tough to cover, we’ll take the dog.
Bills +9 @ Falcons
This line has the potential to get up into double digits come kickoff, so if you like it like we do, it may be a wise idea to wait until Sunday. The Bills are looking at starting Brian Brohm from Louisville at QB for this one. We think that's actually a good thing, considering the other schmucks haven't done all that much, why not give the young kid a look and see if he could be the future of the franchise. The Bills have played tough football since Perry Fewell took over and we look for that to continue here. The Falcons are out of the playoff hunt and we don't think they have much to play for here. Yes, the NFL is a prideful league and no game is meaningless, but this looks likes a spot for the Falcons to be a little flat.
Giants -7 vs. Panthers
Great spot here for the G-men. They finally seemed to get back on track against the Skins (we missed that one), and the Panthers are coming off a big upset win over the Brett Favres. The Panthers aren’t going to the playoffs and may be happy to call it a year after a nice upset victory. The Giants meanwhile need to win out for a chance to make the playoffs. They will be fully focused for this one and the Panthers may be willing to lay over. One concern is the revenge factor as the Giants beat the Panthers late last year in OT to knock the Panthers down a seed. That shouldn’t be a big concern though, we like the revamped Giants to unload and look forward to making a potential run.
Lions +12.5 @ 49ers
Matthew Stafford just got put on IR and the Detroit QB has not been announced yet. Daunte Culpepper has played fair but not great. Drew Stanton played ok in relief of him last week and will likely get the start this week. The Lions outscored the Cards 24-14 in the second half with Stanton directing the offense. Throw in that double digit dogs were 3-1 ATS last week and we think that the Lions are severely undervalued here. Grab the points.
Raiders +3.5 @ Browns
The Browns win a couple in a row, one a primetime game against a division foe and another against the crappy Chiefs and now they deserve to be laying points? Come on now! The Raiders have been terrible after a win, but Charlie Frye is getting to play against the team that released him so they guy will be fired up. On the flip side, the Browns will be without Brady Quinn and DA has been awful this year. Oakland is 3-4 on the road, and the Browns are just 1-5 at home. They were given a 48 hour extension to sell out or the game will be blacked out. After 2 wins the Browns ay be fat and happy. Rob Ryan coached the Raiders but that shouldn't help because his defense is plain vanilla.
ROOT
THE BILLIONAIRES GET TO SCORE ANOTHER EASY WINNER RIGHT HERE!!
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 27, 2009, 10:00 am(PST) Matchup: Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants Giants
Take: Carolina Panthers
CAROLINA vs NY GIANTS: The New York Giants need help to reach the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. But the Carolina Panthers may be the team to destroy that dream. It seemed like just last week, Julius Peppers was all over the Vikings backfield causing all kind of problems for Brett Farve and the Minnesota Coaching staff. What a way to get the headlines except by doing the same thing to Eli Manning. WAR says it defense and creating T.O.'s and that exactly what Carolina has been doing. New York, averaging 38.0 points and 412.0 yards during its last three games, will face a Panthers defense that’s totaled eight interceptions and five fumbles over the last four contests. And the Panthers may have an answer to their offense. The Giants will have to find an answer for Matt Moore, who had career highs with 299 passing yards and three TDs against the Vikings. He found Steve Smith nine times for 157 yards, including the go-ahead, fourth-quarter score. Moore will make his third consecutive start for Carolina. Look for a rejuvenated Panthers team to "play spoiler" and with no pressure on them get the upset in New York. Take Carolina as a WAR Billionaires Club release.
THE POINTSPREAD IS MOVING ON THIS GAME AFTER ANNOUNCED IT IS WAR's DOG OF THE MONTH
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 27, 2009, 1:15 pm(PST) Matchup: NY Jets Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Take: NY Jets Jets
NY JETS vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Rex Ryan watched Colts tapes all week searching for flaws. His conclusion: To beat the NFL’s last perfect team, it will take, well, the perfect game. “Obviously, you can’t afford any mental mistakes against this offense. Indy coach Jim Caldwell has been noncommittal about if, or how long, his starters will play Sunday. Caldwell said that will be determined in large part by injuries, reiterating what he said last week. Manning should start, as he has done in all 190 regular-season games since joining the Colts, but could exit after a series or two—or after he and his teammates attain individual goals, as has happened in the past. Caldwell doesn’t intend to let numbers impact his decisions. The Jets do have a formula that can beat Indy. They lead the NFL in rushing. And the New York Jets have a dream defense on paper, a unit that’s ranked No. 1 overall in the league and has piled up some gaudy stats. The Jets could actually provide a stiff test for the Colts’ offense. Among the many categories New York leads the league in are pass defense, yards allowed, offensive points allowed, yards per play and scoring drives. One would think that would add up to a team fighting for a No. 1 overall seed, not for its playoff life. The reality is the Jets do have a terrific defense, one that has the talent to be even better. A big performance against the Colts—and a win—could go a long way in them earning the respect they desire. WAR says this respect will be garnered with a Jets victory and has made the Jets his Millionaires Club underdog game of the month!!
A VERY INTERESTING CONTEST WITH 2 RIVALS.
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 27, 2009, 5:20 pm(PST) Matchup: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Take: Washington Redskins
DALLAS vs WASHINGTON: It's no secret that WAR is big on defense. He starts with teams that can make a stop. The Redskin team currently has a decent defense ...for a horrible team. The Washington Redskins haven’t had much to hang their helmets on during what has been a dysfunctional season at best.The defense was one of the few bright spots. The Redskins defense has been ranked in the top 10 seven times this decade and the players want it to be there again this year. They are currently ninth in the NFL. “Staying focused the whole year is the key, whether you are the No. 1 defense or far down. I think we just are losing our focus a little bit.” But there's no better way to get recharged and refocused than a game against a bitter rival...that being the Dallas Cowboys...on National TV. With closing games against two red-hot offenses, home this week against Dallas followed by a road trip to San Diego, the Redskins will need to summon up their early season form to remain in the top 10 defensively. This is the 100th meeting between these 2 teams with both playoff meetings won by the Redskins. Emotionally, players and fans say there’s nothing like it, especially in Washington, where the rivalry has always been taken more seriously than in Dallas. WAR thinks the Redskins are up for their season average of allowing around 20 points and that will be enough defense to have the Skins cover the pointspread. This is WAR's No Limit selection taking the Redskins.
THE BILLIONAIRES GET TO SCORE ANOTHER EASY WINNER RIGHT HERE!!
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 27, 2009, 10:00 am(PST) Matchup: Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants Giants
Take: Carolina Panthers
CAROLINA vs NY GIANTS: The New York Giants need help to reach the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. But the Carolina Panthers may be the team to destroy that dream. It seemed like just last week, Julius Peppers was all over the Vikings backfield causing all kind of problems for Brett Farve and the Minnesota Coaching staff. What a way to get the headlines except by doing the same thing to Eli Manning. WAR says it defense and creating T.O.'s and that exactly what Carolina has been doing. New York, averaging 38.0 points and 412.0 yards during its last three games, will face a Panthers defense that’s totaled eight interceptions and five fumbles over the last four contests. And the Panthers may have an answer to their offense. The Giants will have to find an answer for Matt Moore, who had career highs with 299 passing yards and three TDs against the Vikings. He found Steve Smith nine times for 157 yards, including the go-ahead, fourth-quarter score. Moore will make his third consecutive start for Carolina. Look for a rejuvenated Panthers team to "play spoiler" and with no pressure on them get the upset in New York. Take Carolina as a WAR Billionaires Club release.
THE POINTSPREAD IS MOVING ON THIS GAME AFTER ANNOUNCED IT IS WAR's DOG OF THE MONTH
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 27, 2009, 1:15 pm(PST) Matchup: NY Jets Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Take: NY Jets Jets
NY JETS vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Rex Ryan watched Colts tapes all week searching for flaws. His conclusion: To beat the NFL’s last perfect team, it will take, well, the perfect game. “Obviously, you can’t afford any mental mistakes against this offense. Indy coach Jim Caldwell has been noncommittal about if, or how long, his starters will play Sunday. Caldwell said that will be determined in large part by injuries, reiterating what he said last week. Manning should start, as he has done in all 190 regular-season games since joining the Colts, but could exit after a series or two—or after he and his teammates attain individual goals, as has happened in the past. Caldwell doesn’t intend to let numbers impact his decisions. The Jets do have a formula that can beat Indy. They lead the NFL in rushing. And the New York Jets have a dream defense on paper, a unit that’s ranked No. 1 overall in the league and has piled up some gaudy stats. The Jets could actually provide a stiff test for the Colts’ offense. Among the many categories New York leads the league in are pass defense, yards allowed, offensive points allowed, yards per play and scoring drives. One would think that would add up to a team fighting for a No. 1 overall seed, not for its playoff life. The reality is the Jets do have a terrific defense, one that has the talent to be even better. A big performance against the Colts—and a win—could go a long way in them earning the respect they desire. WAR says this respect will be garnered with a Jets victory and has made the Jets his Millionaires Club underdog game of the month!!
A VERY INTERESTING CONTEST WITH 2 RIVALS.
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 27, 2009, 5:20 pm(PST) Matchup: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Take: Washington Redskins
DALLAS vs WASHINGTON: It's no secret that WAR is big on defense. He starts with teams that can make a stop. The Redskin team currently has a decent defense ...for a horrible team. The Washington Redskins haven’t had much to hang their helmets on during what has been a dysfunctional season at best.The defense was one of the few bright spots. The Redskins defense has been ranked in the top 10 seven times this decade and the players want it to be there again this year. They are currently ninth in the NFL. “Staying focused the whole year is the key, whether you are the No. 1 defense or far down. I think we just are losing our focus a little bit.” But there's no better way to get recharged and refocused than a game against a bitter rival...that being the Dallas Cowboys...on National TV. With closing games against two red-hot offenses, home this week against Dallas followed by a road trip to San Diego, the Redskins will need to summon up their early season form to remain in the top 10 defensively. This is the 100th meeting between these 2 teams with both playoff meetings won by the Redskins. Emotionally, players and fans say there’s nothing like it, especially in Washington, where the rivalry has always been taken more seriously than in Dallas. WAR thinks the Redskins are up for their season average of allowing around 20 points and that will be enough defense to have the Skins cover the pointspread. This is WAR's No Limit selection taking the Redskins.
Sunday System Club Play + big game info GC
On Sunday the Free NFL system club play is on the Cleveland Browns. Game 106 at 1:00 eastern. The Browns fit 2 solid systems here today. Lets take a look at one. What we want to do is play against road teams like Oakland in a non division game off a divisional road dog win and scored 25 or less if today's opponent won or lost by 7 or less points in their last game. Oakland will bounce here today off their big division road win vs Denver. The Raiders are just 1-7 off a win and this year they have been blown out after each win. Cleveland is still playing pretty hard as evidenced by their 41-34 win at KC last week. This week veteran Qb D. Anderson gets the start and he will look to put this years struggles behind him with a solid home performance against Oakland. Look for the Browns to play hard here and get the win. On Sunday I have the 7 Unit NFL GOY going. This play is backed with 2 solid system one of which wins by over 21 points per game. Seven Unit plays are rare and are 4-0 in 2009 in all sports. The Card also has a big NFL dog system play and a 13-0 Perfect system NBA play. The NFL has been piping hot the past few weeks. On Saturday we went 2-0 and the damage continues today. For the Free system club play take Cleveland. BOL GC
On Sunday the Free NFL system club play is on the Cleveland Browns. Game 106 at 1:00 eastern. The Browns fit 2 solid systems here today. Lets take a look at one. What we want to do is play against road teams like Oakland in a non division game off a divisional road dog win and scored 25 or less if today's opponent won or lost by 7 or less points in their last game. Oakland will bounce here today off their big division road win vs Denver. The Raiders are just 1-7 off a win and this year they have been blown out after each win. Cleveland is still playing pretty hard as evidenced by their 41-34 win at KC last week. This week veteran Qb D. Anderson gets the start and he will look to put this years struggles behind him with a solid home performance against Oakland. Look for the Browns to play hard here and get the win. On Sunday I have the 7 Unit NFL GOY going. This play is backed with 2 solid system one of which wins by over 21 points per game. Seven Unit plays are rare and are 4-0 in 2009 in all sports. The Card also has a big NFL dog system play and a 13-0 Perfect system NBA play. The NFL has been piping hot the past few weeks. On Saturday we went 2-0 and the damage continues today. For the Free system club play take Cleveland. BOL GC
AccuScore
MUSIC CITY BOWL
Clemson 29 Kentucky 21
Clemson 69% Win favorite.
Nashville might as well be Kentucky's postseason home. The Wildcats will be making their third trip to the Music City Bowl in the past four years and will be looking to win their fourth straight bowl game overall. They're going against a Clemson team that was outlasted by Georgia Tech in a wild ACC championship game and features one of the most explosive players in the country in C.J. Spiller.
MUSIC CITY BOWL
Clemson 29 Kentucky 21
Clemson 69% Win favorite.
Nashville might as well be Kentucky's postseason home. The Wildcats will be making their third trip to the Music City Bowl in the past four years and will be looking to win their fourth straight bowl game overall. They're going against a Clemson team that was outlasted by Georgia Tech in a wild ACC championship game and features one of the most explosive players in the country in C.J. Spiller.
LANG
50 DIME - BALTIMORE RAVENS - (If line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2. Value number of 3 1/2 with the dog. If 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 up to +3) - Let's see, my QB throws for over 500 yards at home and I still need the last play of the game to win the football game.
Folks, don't be fooled by the Steelers win over the Packers last Sunday. This is still an average football team all the way across the board.
How soon everyone forgets it was just weeks ago this team lost back-to-back-to- back weeks to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns.
Add it up and you will see a combined record of 11-31.
The bottom line is the Ravens didn't take the Steelers all that serious in the first meeting facing 3rd string QB Dennis Dixon making his first career start in the NFL.
They will take this game very serious with a playoff berth on the line.
Pittsburgh's defense is in big trouble here as they have been torched for over 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games, including 27 or more against the Raiders, the Chiefs and the Packers.
You start seeing the Raiders and Chiefs putting up 27 on you, then you know you have problems.
This Baltimore Ravens team is playing very well as they come off 48-3 destruction at home over the Lions, and a 31-7 win over the Bears.
Already this year on the road they have beaten the Chargers 31-26 and for all intents and purposes let wins get away at Minnesota, and New England.
People are betting the Steelers here as this line opened Pittsburgh -1 1/2, and as of this writing it's up to -3. Let me say now thank you to the betting public for handing me a 3 1/2 point road dog with the Ravens today.
They are the better team. They have a better offense and they are playing very well down the stretch.
50 DIME - HOUSTON TEXANS -You give me the 2nd best passing offense in the NFL against the 23rd ranked pass defense, and I will roll big with the offense every time.
The Texans know how to beat the Dolphins going 4-0 lifetime against them, and the bottom line is there is only one QB having a better year than Matt Schaub, and it just so happens to be Peyton Manning.
Not bad company to be in.
Here is the problem facing the Dolphins today. They can't cover the Texans man- to-man, so they have to play a zone behind it and if you do that, Schaub is going to eat you alive.
I give Miami credit for fighting hard this year, but fact of the matter is they don't match up at all with this Texans team and especially Andre Johnson, who is going to tear up this young Dolphins secondary.
He leads the league with 1,433 yards and 4th with 90 receptions and quite frankly, I see him going for about 12 catches for over 200 yards. That is the day I see him having.
This Texans team has had some impressive road wins putting up 34 on the road at Tennessee in a 34-31 win, beat the Bengals 27-14, crushed Buffalo 31-14 and almost took down Indy 20-17.
The line move on this game has come down a bit, but I always thought it should be a pick'em game, or even the Texans as a small favorite. That is how much better I feel the Texans are than this Dolphins team.
The river card for me in this game is the fact the Texans are 7-2 ATS last 9 as a road dog while the Dolphins are a horrific 5-24 ATS their last 29 as a home favorite.
Big day for Schaub and for Johnson as the Texans win this game outright, and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
50 DIME - KENTUCKY WILDCATS - (if 6 1/2 you buy the 1/2 up to 7. Value number of 7 with the dog. If line is 7 you buy the 1/2 and get +7 1/2) - Can't pass up the S.E.C rep getting points in a bowl game from an inferior conference.
This Wildcats team that has won 18 straight non conference games SU dating back to 2006.
It should also be noted Kentucky is looking for their 4th straight bowl win which would be quite the accomplishment for this senior class.
The bottom line is I just have to question where the heart of this Clemson team is after the heartbreaking loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game cost them their BCS bowl dreams.
I understand the huge advantage it is for the Tigers to have C.J. Spiller, but one guy does not make a football team.
This is an SEC team getting almost a full touchdown on a neutral field, with just as much if not more team speed across the board.
You look at the last 6 games in which the linemaker has seen fit to make the SEC an underdog and you will see them covering 5 of those 6.
Let me further point out this is a Clemson team that has gone 0-7 ATS their last 7 against the SEC including getting drilled by South Carolina this year 34-17.
Some will say they didn't care about the game because it didn't affect the ACC Championship game the next week. I say bullshit.
You can howl at the moon all you want about the Tigers having the higher rated offense and defense but that was against ACC competition and not the SEC, where Kentucky had to play the likes of Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina.
I will also point out Kentucky put up over 300 yards total offense versus the # 1 team in the country in Alabama which was almost as much as what Florida and Tebow were able to put up in the SEC Championship game.
My point is Kentucky has not only the speed to be in this game but the playmakers to win this game and quite frankly I am comfortable with both Hartline, who comes back and should be ready to play here, or freshman Morgan Newton.
All about getting the SEC and the points in bowl games and I will gladly grab the points here.
FREE SELECTION - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
50 DIME - BALTIMORE RAVENS - (If line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2. Value number of 3 1/2 with the dog. If 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 up to +3) - Let's see, my QB throws for over 500 yards at home and I still need the last play of the game to win the football game.
Folks, don't be fooled by the Steelers win over the Packers last Sunday. This is still an average football team all the way across the board.
How soon everyone forgets it was just weeks ago this team lost back-to-back-to- back weeks to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns.
Add it up and you will see a combined record of 11-31.
The bottom line is the Ravens didn't take the Steelers all that serious in the first meeting facing 3rd string QB Dennis Dixon making his first career start in the NFL.
They will take this game very serious with a playoff berth on the line.
Pittsburgh's defense is in big trouble here as they have been torched for over 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games, including 27 or more against the Raiders, the Chiefs and the Packers.
You start seeing the Raiders and Chiefs putting up 27 on you, then you know you have problems.
This Baltimore Ravens team is playing very well as they come off 48-3 destruction at home over the Lions, and a 31-7 win over the Bears.
Already this year on the road they have beaten the Chargers 31-26 and for all intents and purposes let wins get away at Minnesota, and New England.
People are betting the Steelers here as this line opened Pittsburgh -1 1/2, and as of this writing it's up to -3. Let me say now thank you to the betting public for handing me a 3 1/2 point road dog with the Ravens today.
They are the better team. They have a better offense and they are playing very well down the stretch.
50 DIME - HOUSTON TEXANS -You give me the 2nd best passing offense in the NFL against the 23rd ranked pass defense, and I will roll big with the offense every time.
The Texans know how to beat the Dolphins going 4-0 lifetime against them, and the bottom line is there is only one QB having a better year than Matt Schaub, and it just so happens to be Peyton Manning.
Not bad company to be in.
Here is the problem facing the Dolphins today. They can't cover the Texans man- to-man, so they have to play a zone behind it and if you do that, Schaub is going to eat you alive.
I give Miami credit for fighting hard this year, but fact of the matter is they don't match up at all with this Texans team and especially Andre Johnson, who is going to tear up this young Dolphins secondary.
He leads the league with 1,433 yards and 4th with 90 receptions and quite frankly, I see him going for about 12 catches for over 200 yards. That is the day I see him having.
This Texans team has had some impressive road wins putting up 34 on the road at Tennessee in a 34-31 win, beat the Bengals 27-14, crushed Buffalo 31-14 and almost took down Indy 20-17.
The line move on this game has come down a bit, but I always thought it should be a pick'em game, or even the Texans as a small favorite. That is how much better I feel the Texans are than this Dolphins team.
The river card for me in this game is the fact the Texans are 7-2 ATS last 9 as a road dog while the Dolphins are a horrific 5-24 ATS their last 29 as a home favorite.
Big day for Schaub and for Johnson as the Texans win this game outright, and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
50 DIME - KENTUCKY WILDCATS - (if 6 1/2 you buy the 1/2 up to 7. Value number of 7 with the dog. If line is 7 you buy the 1/2 and get +7 1/2) - Can't pass up the S.E.C rep getting points in a bowl game from an inferior conference.
This Wildcats team that has won 18 straight non conference games SU dating back to 2006.
It should also be noted Kentucky is looking for their 4th straight bowl win which would be quite the accomplishment for this senior class.
The bottom line is I just have to question where the heart of this Clemson team is after the heartbreaking loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game cost them their BCS bowl dreams.
I understand the huge advantage it is for the Tigers to have C.J. Spiller, but one guy does not make a football team.
This is an SEC team getting almost a full touchdown on a neutral field, with just as much if not more team speed across the board.
You look at the last 6 games in which the linemaker has seen fit to make the SEC an underdog and you will see them covering 5 of those 6.
Let me further point out this is a Clemson team that has gone 0-7 ATS their last 7 against the SEC including getting drilled by South Carolina this year 34-17.
Some will say they didn't care about the game because it didn't affect the ACC Championship game the next week. I say bullshit.
You can howl at the moon all you want about the Tigers having the higher rated offense and defense but that was against ACC competition and not the SEC, where Kentucky had to play the likes of Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina.
I will also point out Kentucky put up over 300 yards total offense versus the # 1 team in the country in Alabama which was almost as much as what Florida and Tebow were able to put up in the SEC Championship game.
My point is Kentucky has not only the speed to be in this game but the playmakers to win this game and quite frankly I am comfortable with both Hartline, who comes back and should be ready to play here, or freshman Morgan Newton.
All about getting the SEC and the points in bowl games and I will gladly grab the points here.
FREE SELECTION - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Shea Matthews of OffshoreInsiders
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Sunday, December 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Patriots -7.5
It sure doesn’t feel like the Patriots have won two straight games, does it? But that’s the impression we’ve gotten watching the Pats try to move the ball lately. Tom Brady hooked up with Randy Moss once last week but let’s face it; they aren’t connecting right now. For whatever reason, Brady is off; he’s topped 250 passing yards once and thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes over his last four games. Protection isn’t the issue; he’s been sacked just twice over that span. It doesn’t help that Moss is quitting on plays, too.
In theory, a matchup versus Jacksonville’s pass defense, which ranks 27th in the league, should remedy New England’s offensive woes. Brady has been superior at home, throwing 13 touchdown passes versus three interceptions at Gillette Stadium. Since the Pats are also 7-0 at home, it’s hard to imagine them losing this one.
However, I’m not too confident that they’ll win by more than a touchdown. New England kept the Panthers and Bills’ offenses in check over the last two weeks but those were one-dimensional units that struggle to pass the ball. David Garrard is no star but he’s much more capable than Matt Moore or Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’ll keep the Pats honest and help open up room for Maurice Jones-Drew to pound the rock. As long the Jags stay close and can still run the ball, I think they’ll lose by seven points or less.
NFL odds pick: Jaguars +7.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Steelers -2.5
Just when we thought the Steelers were totally hopeless, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards and stole a game from the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, keeping the Black and Gold mathematically alive in the AFC playoff hunt. Does that mean we can expect another strong performance from the Steelers at home this week?
This is a tough pick for football handicappers. On one hand, Pittsburgh seems energized. They’re a different team when Big Ben is clicking and the Ravens’ secondary has been beatable since it lost Fabian Washington. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has been torched regularly since it lost Troy Polamalu and Joe Flacco has the arm strength to do it again. Ultimately, these two teams are almost mirror images. Both stop the run well, both make mistakes against the pass, and both are well-rounded offensively. Troy Polamalu’s absence may make the difference. Pick Baltimore but switch to Pittsburgh if Troy miraculously returns from his PCL sprain. Also remember that the Steelers are just 1-4 against their own division this season.
NFL odds pick: Ravens +2.5
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 27, 4:15 p.m. ET
NFL odds favorite: Eagles -7
Though the Broncos and Eagles rarely play each other in cross-conference battles, we can expect plenty of fireworks in this matchup, as both teams are inching closer to locking up playoff berths. Averaging 257.8 passing yards and 106.8 rushing yards per contest, the Eagles are among football’s most balanced teams. Donovan McNabb is good for at least one huge connection with DeSean Jackson every week and LeSean McCoy has played fairly well since getting the starting running back reins after Brian Westbrook went down. McNabb is in tough against the Denver Broncos, who have the NFL’s No. 3 defense and rank seventh in the league in sacks.
We may not see an explosive offense performance from Philly, who seems to be better at exploiting weaker or banged up defensive units. But the Eagles’ “D” should bottle up the Broncos’ offense. Kyle Orton has trouble against aggressive pass-rushing teams, as he showed during a three-pick performance against the Steelers earlier this season. He’s also getting poor protection of late – he’s been sacked 10 times in his last four games – so it could be open season for Philly’s front seven. Those picking the NFL point spread should expect a defensive battle but go with the home team on the strength of the Eagles’ pass rush, which is even better than Denver’s.
Free pick: Eagles -7
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Sunday, December 27, 8:20 p.m. ET
NFL odds favorite: Cowboys -6.5
America’s Team is holding its head high after marching into New Orleans and ending the Saints’ perfect run last week. But wouldn’t it be so fittingly Dallas to follow up that triumph with a loss to lowly Washington? The Redskins are an almost-respectable 3-4 at home and have the league’s No. 5 pass defense, not to mention a solid pass rush. Tony Romo looks like he’s conquering his bad December history but let’s remember that last week’s victory came indoors. A cold night game in D.C. is a different story.
The Cowboys should find a way to win on Sunday night, especially if they commit to the run with Felix Jones, Marian Barber and Tashard Choice. But I think the Redskins beat the spread at home.
Free pick: Redskins +6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Sunday, December 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Patriots -7.5
It sure doesn’t feel like the Patriots have won two straight games, does it? But that’s the impression we’ve gotten watching the Pats try to move the ball lately. Tom Brady hooked up with Randy Moss once last week but let’s face it; they aren’t connecting right now. For whatever reason, Brady is off; he’s topped 250 passing yards once and thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes over his last four games. Protection isn’t the issue; he’s been sacked just twice over that span. It doesn’t help that Moss is quitting on plays, too.
In theory, a matchup versus Jacksonville’s pass defense, which ranks 27th in the league, should remedy New England’s offensive woes. Brady has been superior at home, throwing 13 touchdown passes versus three interceptions at Gillette Stadium. Since the Pats are also 7-0 at home, it’s hard to imagine them losing this one.
However, I’m not too confident that they’ll win by more than a touchdown. New England kept the Panthers and Bills’ offenses in check over the last two weeks but those were one-dimensional units that struggle to pass the ball. David Garrard is no star but he’s much more capable than Matt Moore or Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’ll keep the Pats honest and help open up room for Maurice Jones-Drew to pound the rock. As long the Jags stay close and can still run the ball, I think they’ll lose by seven points or less.
NFL odds pick: Jaguars +7.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Steelers -2.5
Just when we thought the Steelers were totally hopeless, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards and stole a game from the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, keeping the Black and Gold mathematically alive in the AFC playoff hunt. Does that mean we can expect another strong performance from the Steelers at home this week?
This is a tough pick for football handicappers. On one hand, Pittsburgh seems energized. They’re a different team when Big Ben is clicking and the Ravens’ secondary has been beatable since it lost Fabian Washington. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has been torched regularly since it lost Troy Polamalu and Joe Flacco has the arm strength to do it again. Ultimately, these two teams are almost mirror images. Both stop the run well, both make mistakes against the pass, and both are well-rounded offensively. Troy Polamalu’s absence may make the difference. Pick Baltimore but switch to Pittsburgh if Troy miraculously returns from his PCL sprain. Also remember that the Steelers are just 1-4 against their own division this season.
NFL odds pick: Ravens +2.5
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 27, 4:15 p.m. ET
NFL odds favorite: Eagles -7
Though the Broncos and Eagles rarely play each other in cross-conference battles, we can expect plenty of fireworks in this matchup, as both teams are inching closer to locking up playoff berths. Averaging 257.8 passing yards and 106.8 rushing yards per contest, the Eagles are among football’s most balanced teams. Donovan McNabb is good for at least one huge connection with DeSean Jackson every week and LeSean McCoy has played fairly well since getting the starting running back reins after Brian Westbrook went down. McNabb is in tough against the Denver Broncos, who have the NFL’s No. 3 defense and rank seventh in the league in sacks.
We may not see an explosive offense performance from Philly, who seems to be better at exploiting weaker or banged up defensive units. But the Eagles’ “D” should bottle up the Broncos’ offense. Kyle Orton has trouble against aggressive pass-rushing teams, as he showed during a three-pick performance against the Steelers earlier this season. He’s also getting poor protection of late – he’s been sacked 10 times in his last four games – so it could be open season for Philly’s front seven. Those picking the NFL point spread should expect a defensive battle but go with the home team on the strength of the Eagles’ pass rush, which is even better than Denver’s.
Free pick: Eagles -7
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Sunday, December 27, 8:20 p.m. ET
NFL odds favorite: Cowboys -6.5
America’s Team is holding its head high after marching into New Orleans and ending the Saints’ perfect run last week. But wouldn’t it be so fittingly Dallas to follow up that triumph with a loss to lowly Washington? The Redskins are an almost-respectable 3-4 at home and have the league’s No. 5 pass defense, not to mention a solid pass rush. Tony Romo looks like he’s conquering his bad December history but let’s remember that last week’s victory came indoors. A cold night game in D.C. is a different story.
The Cowboys should find a way to win on Sunday night, especially if they commit to the run with Felix Jones, Marian Barber and Tashard Choice. But I think the Redskins beat the spread at home.
Free pick: Redskins +6.5
