NFL
Week 16
Dolphins (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)-- Miami is 5-2 since the bullying fiasco, winning last three games by 20-6-4 points; they lost 23-21 (-7.5) at home to Buffalo in Week 7, turning ball over three times (-2), converting 3-13 on thirrd down (Bills were 9-19). Five of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points; Fish won two of last three visits here, after losing previous seven. Buffalo lost five of its last seven games; they're 3-4 at home- Bills are +9 in their five wins, -8 in losses. You'd think Fish would be in trouble up north in December, but they've already won games in Swamp/Pittsburgh this month. Miami is 4-3 on road this season. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in AFC East divisional games, 3-0 if underdogs. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Miami games; three of last four Buffalo games went over the total.
Saints (10-4) @ Panthers (10-4)-- First place in NFC South on line here; Saints are averaging 14.5 ppg less on road than at home- they've lost four of last five games on road, outscored 51-10 in first half of last two. Saints lost to Jets/Rams on road, red flags. NO beat Carolina 31-13 (-3) two weeks ago, holding Newton to 2.8 ypa; it is only game Panthers didn't have at least one play of 20+ yards. Panthers won last six home games (5-0-1 vs spread) after losing home opener 12-7 to Seahawks; Carolina won nine of last ten games overall after 1-3 start. Saints are 0-2 as dogs this year. Home teams are 8-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games, 6-0 if they are favored. Last five Saint games, five of last six Carolina games stayed under total. Carolina swept Saints LY, but lost last five games against Sean Payton.
Cowboys (7-7) @ Redskins (3-11)-- Hard to pick either side here; Dallas allowed 82 points in losing last two games, outscored 55-24 in second half- they blew 26-3 halftime lead to Pack's #4 QB last week. Cowboys are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning 31-16 (-6) in first meeting, in game where Skins outgained Dallas 433-213, but gave up PR for TD and TD drives of 15-3 yards. Washington lost last six in a row (1-5 vs spread); Cousins threw for 373 yards last week but they missed 2-pt play in last minute that would've won game. Cowboys are 3-2 in last five visits to DC; they're 1-3 on grass fields this season. Home teams are 4-6 vs spread in NFC East divisional games, 0-1 if home dogs. Last seven Cowboy games, six of last nine Washington games went over total.
Buccaneers (4-10) @ Rams (6-8)-- St Louis is favored for first time since beating Jaguars 34-20 (-11) in Week 5; they seem to play better vs better teams, with wins over three of eight division leaders. Rams are +17 in turnovers in six wins, -7 in the losses; they're 4-3 SU at home, 1-1 as home faves. Bucs won four of last six after an 0-8 start; they're 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 1-20-8-3-21 points, with only win 24-21 at Lions (they were +5 in turnovers). Tampa Bay is 4-6 as underdogs this year, 2-3 on road. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 19-5-1 vs spread, 10-4-1 at home; NFC South road dogs are 6-5. Three of last four Tampa Bay and last three Ram tilts stayed under the total. This is Bucs' first visit here since '04; they're 5-2 vs Rams since losing 11-6 in '00 NFC title game here.
Bears (8-6) @ Eagles (8-6)-- Philly won last two home games, 24-16/34-20 after breaking long losing skid at Linc; they're 5-3 in last eight games as favorite. Chicago scored 83 points in winning last two games; they've averaged 7.2+ ypa in last four games, as teams have trouble covering their big WRs. Chicago won four of last five series games (all decided by 6 or less points), in series where road teams won six of last eight meetings. Bears won last week despite allowing two defensive TDs; they won field position in 10 of 14 games this year. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-13 vs spread, 6-8 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 4-7. Four of last five Bear games went over total; five of last six Philly home games stayed under the total. Detroit's loss Monday night puts Chicago in control of own destiny to win the NFC North- they play Packers at home next week.
Browns (4-10) @ Jets (6-8)-- Cleveland scored two defensive TDs and still lost to Chicago last week, bad sign for team that lost last five games and eight of last nine. Browns are +3 in turnovers in last two games, -6 for year; Jets are -19 for season, -20 in losses, +1 in wins. Gang Green scored 37-20 points in last two games after not scoring TD in previous two games; they've lost field position by 10+ yards in each of last four losses. Jets are 5-2 at home, scoring 3-6 points in losses to Miami, Steelers; Browns are 1-5 on road, 3-3 as road dog; they had Patriots 26-14 at 2:00 warning of last road game, lost by point. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 11-6-2 vs spread, 6-4-2 at home; AFC East favorites are 7-4, 5-3 at home. Six of last eight Jet games, six of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.
Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (11-3)-- There's chance these teams could meet in first round of playoffs in two weeks; Indy is 11-2 in last 13 series games, 3-0 in playoff tilts. Colts won six of last seven visits here, winning 20-13 LY; Chiefs are 2-5 vs spread at home, losing 41-38/35-28 in last two, after winning first five-- they scored 101 points in winning last two games on road- they led 38-10/35-17 at half the last two weeks. Colts lost 40-11/42-28 in last two road games- they were outscored 79-12 in first half of last four away games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 13-9 vs spread, 7-5 at home; AFC South underdogs are 8-16-1, 6-7-1 on road. Chiefs' last four games and six of last eight Indy games went over total. Chiefs have four TDs on defense/special teams in their last three games. This is bigger game for KC, who could get a first-round bye if they win AFC West.
Vikings (4-9-1) @ Bengals (9-5)-- Cincy won/covered all six home games, beating Pack/Pats/Colts at home; Bengals are 6-0-1 in second half of last seven games, with 116-59 scoring edge after halftime since Week 8. Minnesota is competing, covering six of last seven games, going 2-1-1 SU in last four; 41-20 loss at Seattle was only time in last seven games they lost by more than 7 points. Vikings are 5-3 as road dogs- they hung 48 on Philly last week with Peterson sitting out- they averaged 9.7 ypa with Cassel throwing for 370 yards, but this game is outdoors, and against a better defense. Bengals now have Ravens breathing down their neck, so this is big games for them. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 vs spread this season; NFC North road underdogs are 4-7. 12 of 14 Viking games, six of last eight Cincinnati games went over total.
Broncos (11-3) @ Texans (2-12)-- Denver wins division/first round bye with two wins to close season; Houston lost its last 12 games, fired its coach, now goes back to original starting QB Schaub with backup Keenum hurt. Broncos are 3-3 as road favorites; they've got road wins by 18-3-8-7, with losses at Indy/Foxboro. Texans are 2-11-1 vs spread this year, 1-6 at home, 1-2 as home dogs, with losses at home by 3-25-3-5-7-3 points. Run defense has been problem for Houston- they've given up 146.4 rushing yards/game in last five games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 13-8 vs spread, 6-4 on road; AFC South underdogs are 8-16-1, 2-9 at home. 11 of 14 Bronco tilts and five of last seven Houston games went over total. Broncos had ten days off since getting up 27-20 at home by Chargers in last game.
Titans (5-9) @ Jaguars (4-10)-- Jags' first win after 0-8 start was 29-27 (+11) back in Week 10 in Nashville; Titans lost three fumbles, were -2 in TOs, lost despite outgaining Jaguars 362-214. Titans converted 10-18 on 3rd down. Four of last five series games were decided by 6 or less points;Tennessee lost three of their last four visits here, losing by 20-2-5 points. Jags are 4-2 since starting 0-8, but three of four wins were on road- they're 1-6 SU/ATS at home, with five losses by 13+ points. Titans lost three in row, eight of last 11 games; they're 5-2 vs spread on road, 3-4 on road, winning by 7-7-4 points- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks. Home teams are 3-5-1 against spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-2-1 if home dogs. Over is 8-2-1 in Tennessee's last 11 games, 8-2 in Jaguars' last ten.
Cardinals (9-5) @ Seahawks (12-2)-- Seattle clinches home field thru NFC playoffs with win here; they've won eight of last nine games, covering last five. Seattle won first meeting 34-22 (-5.5) at Seattle in Week 7, outrushing Redbirds 135-30, sacking Palmer seven times. Arizona lost last three visits here, losing 58-0 LY, but they've won six of last seven games overall (6-0-1 vs spread). Cardinals need win to stay in Wild Card chase; they converted 14-26 on 3rd down last two games, but Palmer is banged up and Fitzgerald got concussion on muffed onside kick last week (expected to play here). Seahawks won eight of last nine games, with last four wins by 21+ points. NFC West divisional home favorites are 4-1 against spread. Six of last nine Arizona games wne tover total; four of last five Seattle games stayed under.
Giants (5-9) @ Lions (7-7)-- Two most turnover-prone teams (39-31) meet in this one, after Detroit had costly Monday night loss where Ravens won despite their only scoring coming on six FGs, including GW 61-yarder. Detroit has horrendous -18 turnover ratio (5-23) in last seven games, going 3-4, with two of wins by 1-2 points. Giants were shut out in first half of last two games (37-0); they're 2-5 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-3 on road, with road losses by 5-38-24-6-23- its only road wins were against divisional rivals. Big Blue is 15 of last 56 on 3rd down, as lack of playmakers/strong OL has hampered immobile Manning. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-11 vs spread, 5-7 on road. Six of last nine Detroit games went over total. Lions can still win NFC North with two wins and a little help.
Raiders (4-10) @ Chargers (7-7)-- Oakland is 18-9 vs spread in last 27 games as a divisional underdog; they've won two of last three visits here, after losing previous seven. Oakland (+4.5) upset Chargers 27-17 at home in Week 5, outrushing Bolts 104-32 with +5 turnover ratio. San Diego had only two TDs in five trips into red zone. Raiders lost last four games, are 4-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4-7-10 points, with win at Houston. Bolts are 3-2 as favorites, 3-3 SU at home, wiith wins by 9-10-23 points- they've had ten days off since winning last Thursday in Denver. Only one of SD's last three series wins was by more than 8 points. AFC West divisional favories are 6-3 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Oakland games; six of last nine Charger games stayed under.
Steelers (6-8) @ Packers (7-6-1)-- Green Bay wins division if they win last couple games, but Rodgers is out for 7th straight game- Pack won last two games by point each, after going 0-4-1 in five before that, as 4th-stringer Flynn rallied GB back to win last week after being down 26-3 at half. Packers are 0-4 vs spread in last four home games, after winning/covering first three with Rodgers; they're 3-3 as home favorites, 0-3 without #12. Steelers beat rival Bengals last week, host Browns next week, figure to let down here since they're out of contention. Pitt covered last four games as an underdog AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 11-5-2 vs spread, 6-3-2 on road. NFC North favorites are 5-13-2, 3-8-2 at home. Four of Steelers' last five games, three of last four Green Bay games went over the total.
Patriots (10-4) @ Ravens (8-6)-- Pats won seven of ten series games, with two of three losses in playoffs; they've won two of last three visits here, losing 31-30 LY. NE is playing for first round bye, which is big; they're 3-0 vs spread this year in game following a loss, winning by 3-10-3 points. Ravens won last four games, last three by combined total of seven points- they're on short work week after winning at Detroit without scoring a TD. Pats lost four of last five road games, with win at Houston when they trailed 17-7 at half. Ravens are 6-1 at home, with only loss to Packers 19-17, with Rodgers. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 11-13 vs spread, 3-10 on road; AFC North favorites are 8-9, 6-5 at home. Three of last four Patriot games went over; five of last seven Raven home games stayed under.
Falcons (4-10) @ 49ers (10-4)-- Niners are bully team; other than Seattle win, its last eight wins are all by 12+ points- they're 4-3 as home favorites. Atlanta has had awful year but they're still competing; their last four games (2-2) were decided by 4 or less points; they're +8 in turnovers last three weeks, after being + in turnovers in only one of first eleven games. SF hasn't been minus in turnovers since Week 3 loss to Indy. Falcons covered last three games as a dog, won four of five games vs SF since teams stopped being division rivals, but 49ers won 28-24 in Atlanta in LY's playoffs, which seems like long time ago for Falcon fans. NFC West favorites are 19-5-2 vs spread, 9-3-1 at home; NFC South underdogs are 8-9, 6-5 on road. five of 49ers' last six games stayed under total. This is last game in Candlestick Park.
