Sunday's NFL Week 16 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5, 40.5)
In addition to another late collapse on the defensive side of the ball, the Browns also had two turnovers and nine penalties in a sluggish effort against Chicago that had quarterback Jason Campbell blaming, in part, the painful loss to the Patriots one week earlier. Campbell has averaged 332 yards and two touchdowns since returning from a concussion earlier this month. Josh Gordon leads the NFL with 122.3 receiving yards per game.
If New York needs a confidence boost as it heads into its home finale, it can look to its performance at MetLife Stadium this year, where head coach Rex Ryan's crew has gone 5-2. The Jets have scored at least 26 points in four of those five victories and produced a season-high 37 in their last home contest. New York averages 128.3 yards on the ground, third-best in the AFC.
LINE: New York opened at -1 but has been bet up to -2.5. The total is set at 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the lmid-60s with a 54 percent chance of rain and wind blowing out of the southwest at 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+6.0) - New York (+4.8) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -4.2
TRENDS:
* Browns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC foes.
* Over is 9-3 in New York's last 12 games.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)
Indianapolis has been wildly inconsistent following its 4-1 start, alternating wins and losses in nine games since, and the Colts are coming off a strong performance in a 25-3 victory over Houston, so they might be due for another letdown. Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck (3,299 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs) has been solid, but the Colts haven't generated much on the ground since the trade for Trent Richardson.
The Chiefs allow an AFC-low 18.2 points per game and have the best turnover margin in the league at plus-21, but the offense has been impressive the past two weeks. The Chiefs have rolled up 101 points in consecutive wins at Washington and Oakland and they've topped 28 points in four straight games. Jamaal Charles leads the team in rushing yards (1,181), receptions (65), receiving yards (655) and scoring 18 touchdowns.
LINE: Kansas City has been bet up a half-point after opening at -6.5. The total has jumped 3.5 points to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-0.8) + Kansas City (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -5.2
TRENDS:
* Colts are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 December games.
* Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Indianapolis is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 47.5)
Matt Asiata didn't provide much yardage-wise while filling in for Adrian Peterson last week, but the third-stringer helped put up points. Asiata gained only 51 yards on 30 carries against Philadelphia but scored the first three touchdowns of his NFL career. Peterson (foot) and primary backup Toby Gerhart (hamstring) both are expected to be available Sunday.
Cincinnati is 6-0 at home, where it meets Baltimore for a potential showdown for the division title next week. The Bengals average 33.2 points in their own building and have scored more than 40 in each of their last three home contests. Andy Dalton has thrown 27 TD passes, matching his career high, and needs 351 yards to join Carson Palmer as the only quarterbacks in team history to reach the 4,000-yard plateau in a season.
LINE: Cincinnati opened at -7.5, but has been bet up to -8.5. The total dipped a half-point to 47.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with a 54 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the width of the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+4.3) + Cincinnati (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -10.8
TRENDS:
* Vikings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (+10, 53)
Denver is the first team in NFL history to have four players score at least 10 touchdowns in a season and receiver Eric Decker (73 receptions for 1,130 yards) is two away from making it five. Wideout Demaryius Thomas (78 for 1,194) has also surpassed 1,000 yards and Manning is just 189 yards away from the first 5,000-yard campaign of his stellar career. Knowshon Moreno (939 yards) leads the Denver ground attack.
Quarterback Matt Schaub - he of the nine touchdown passes and 10 interceptions - will be under center Sunday in place of Case Keenum (thumb). Texans running back Ben Tate (771 rushing yards) was placed on injured reserve and rookie Dennis Johnson (154 yards) will start in his place. Defensive lineman J.J. Watt had 2.5 sacks last season when the Texans posted a 31-25 victory over Denver.
LINE: Denver has held steady as a 10-point fave, with the total rising from 51.5 to 53.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-7.5) + Houston (+7.5) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -12
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams with losing records.
* Texans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games.
* Over is 39-12-2 in Denver's last 53 games following a SU loss.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 44)
Tennessee quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 402 yards and four touchdowns last week, but he threw two costly interceptions - one that was returned for a score and the other that set up the game-winning field goal. Running back Chris Johnson turned in another pedestrian effort with 40 yards on 13 carries, marking the seventh time the former 2,000-yard rusher has been limited to 46 yards or fewer.
Jacksonville Leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew did not practice Wednesday and No. 1 receiver Cecil Shorts (groin) was placed on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday, leaving backup quarterback Chad Henne with a paucity of weapons. Jordan Todman made his first career start in place of Jones-Drew last week and rushed for 109 yards while catching four passes for 44 yards.
LINE: Tennessee has been bet down a half-point after opening -5.5. The total is holding at 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+3.0) - Jacksonville (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars -0.5
TRENDS:
* Titans are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. AFC South foes.
* Jaguars are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Jacksonville.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42.5)
Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is just 373 yards shy of becoming Miami's first quarterback to reach 4,000 yards in a season since Hall of Famer Dan Marino did so in 1994. Tannehill has been sacked an NFL-high 51 times and faces a Buffalo team that leads the league with 49 sacks. Safety Michael Thomas intercepted Tom Brady in the end zone with two seconds remaining to secure AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors.
While Miami is eyeing a potential postseason berth, Buffalo is vying to complete its first season sweep of its AFC East rival since 2007. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller paid dividends for Buffalo's fourth-ranked rushing game by combining for 147 yards on 30 carries in last week's 27-20 victory over Jacksonville. A heavy workload for the pair could take the pressure off Lewis, who threw for 202 yards to defeat Miami.
LINE: The Bills are holding as 2.5-point dogs, with the total dropping a half-point to 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with a 100 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the width of the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-1.0) + Buffalo (+4.8) - home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -2.8
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
* Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)
Drew Brees and New Orleans got the better of Carolina's stingy defense in the first meeting, in large part because they held on to the ball - eight of the Saints' 17 turnovers have come in their four losses. Brees (4,500 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs) is on pace for his third straight 5,000-yard season and put up 313 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers two weeks ago.
The Saints are the only team to beat Carolina since Week 5, as the Panthers have won nine of 10 to move to the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2008. Coincidentally, New Orleans is also the only team all season that did not commit a turnover against the Panthers, whose dominant defense has racked up 27 takeaways. DeAngelo Williams and quarterback Cam Newton lead a powerful running game.
LINE: Carolina is installed as a 3-point fave, with the total up a half-point to 46.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with an 81 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms and wind blowing out of the southwest at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-4.0) + Carolina (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -3.5
TRENDS:
* Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC foes.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Carolina.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+3, 53.5)
Although many point the finger at a spotty defense, Tony Romo continues to be in the eye of the storm for Dallas' troubles. Romo threw for multiple touchdowns in five of his last seven contests but also tossed a pair of interceptions in the final three minutes last week to give his detractors additional ammunition about his level of play in December. Dez Bryant reeled in 11 catches for 153 yards versus the Packers.
Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins will face the 32nd-ranked Dallas pass defense on Sunday after carving up the Falcons by completing 29-of-45 passes for 381 yards with three touchdowns. After rushing for 57 yards in his previous two games combined, Redskins RB Alfred Morris busted out for 98 against Atlanta. The second-year back rushed for 81 yards and a score in the teams' previous meeting.
LINE: Dallas is set as a 3-point fave, while the total has risen two points from an opening of 51.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 55 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-0.3) + Washington (+7.0) - home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -4.3
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. divisional opponents.
* Redskins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. the NFC.
* Underdog is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-4, 43)
Playing with quarterback Mike Glennon and third-string running back Bobby Rainey has taken a toll on Tampa Bay's offense, but one of the brightest developments has been the performance of tight end Tim Wright. An undrafted rookie out of Rutgers, Wright had seven receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss to San Francisco and has scored four times in his last eight games.
St. Louis lost Sam Bradford early in the season and has been going with journeyman Kellen Clemens, who completed a season-high 70 percent of his passes while tossing two TD passes last week. Clemens and the Rams have leaned heavily on unheralded rookie running back Zac Stacy, who is coming off his third 100-yard game and has rushed for six touchdowns in his past six games.
LINE: St. Louis has dropped from an opening line of -5.5 to -4. The total is up a half-point to 43.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+4.0) - St. Louis (+2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -5
TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with losing records.
* Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
