Aaron's Analysis
106 WASHINGTON REDSKINS plus 3 over Dallas Cowboys
The Washington Redskins (3-11) host NFC East rival Dallas (7-7) on Sunday in our nation’s capital. Both of these teams enter this game engulfed in turmoil, from Redskins coach Mike Shanahan being on the hot seat and sitting his team captain QB Robert Griffin III to the Cowboys with their walking distraction, receiver Dez Bryant and the ineffectiveness of both QB Tony Romo and the defense. With Kirk Cousins at QB the Redskins nearly got off the skid last week, as they came within a two point conversion away from defeating Atlanta despite seven turnovers, falling short by the score of 27-26. Due to all of those turnovers that loss was deceiving, as the Redskins managed to outgain the Falcons by the count of 476-243. That loss extended their losing streak to six games. As for the Cowboys, they saw a 26-3 halftime lead over Green Bay evaporate in the second half and lost in heartbreaking fashion, 37-36. Their two game losing streak has resulted in them falling one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. Last year the Redskins defeated the Cowboys in both matchups, by the score of 28-18 at home, and 38-31 in Dallas. In this year’s previous matchup, the Cowboys won 31-16 despite being outgained 433-213. The Redskins should once again be able to take advantage of a weak Dallas defense who ranks #32 in the league versus the pass (297.4 yards per game allowed) and #28 versus the run (129.9). Over the last seven games, however, those averages inflate to 302.9 yards per game allowed versus the pass and 158 versus the run. With defensive numbers such as those, it is easy to see how the Packers were able to come from behind in the second half and how the Chicago Bears were able to score on every possession (with the exception of their end of the game kneel down) a few Monday nights ago, en route to a 45-28 Bears victory. The Cowboys are ailing at the linebacker position, and it shows. Versus the rush over the last five games the Cowboys have allowed 784 yards on 143 carries (5.5 yards per carry) and 7 TDs. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, this week they’re facing a Redskin team ranked #3 in rushing with an average of 140.9 yards per game. Over their last three matchups dating to last season, the Redskins have averaged 213 yards per game rushing versus the Cowboys. Redskin back Alfred Morris, with 1,182 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs this season, should be able to get things moving on the ground. Back Roy Helu is versatile being able to catch passes out of the backfield with 232 receiving yards on the season, to go along with his 252 yards and 4 TDs rushing. Kirk Cousins, at least in the passing game, appears to be an upgrade over Robert Griffin III. Versus the Falcons, Cousins completed 29 of 45 passes for 381 yards and 3 TDs. Albeit the Falcons do not exactly have one of the best defenses out there, neither do the Cowboys. Even though it remains to be seen how he’ll fare versus a tough defense, it doesn’t appear Cousins has anything much to worry about yet. Cousins should also be able to increase the production of the receivers, as already evidenced by last week’s game. His targets include receivers Pierre Garcon (96 catches for 1,146 yards and 4 TDs), Santana Moss (38 catches for 426 yards and 2 TDs) and Aldrick Robinson (14 catches for 318 yards and 2 TDs). Last week versus the Falcons Garcon caught 7 passes for 129 yards and 1 TD, Moss 8 catches for 64 yards and 1 TD and Robinson with 4 catches for 99 yards. Defensively the Redskins have done rather well against the rush, allowing 110.9 yards per game. They have shown some improvement in the secondary as of late, as they have allowed an average of just 194.3 yards per game through the air over their last four contests. Although the Cowboys have shown some improvement on the ground of late with back DeMarco Murray (Cowboys ranked #23 on the season, 96.6 yards per game rushing), QB Tony Romo has struggled, as the Cowboys have averaged just 198.8 yards passing over the last five games. Versus a poor Cowboys defense, Cousins and Garcon should be able to have success in the passing game, while Morris should be able to put up the yards on the ground. Although Romo and Bryant could very well hook up for a bunch of yards here, the Redskins should be able to come away with a nice home victory over division rival Dallas and in doing so stick a wrench in the playoff hopes of the Cowboys.
REDSKINS 31-24 (3 Units)