The Philly Godfather
NFL
[111] CLE BROWNS +2½- 110 100 (Buy Back):
[118] TEXANS (HOUS) +10½-110 100:
[106] REDSKINS (WASH) +3-120 100:
[116] BENGALS (CINN) u48-110 100:
[110] TOTAL UNDER 55½-110 (CHI BEARS vrs PHIL EAGLES) 100:
[113] TOTAL OVER 44-110 (INDY COLTS vrs K.C. CHIEFS) 100:
[107] T.B. BUCCANEERS +6-110:
[112] N.Y. JETS -2-110 100:
[121] ARI CARDINALS +10½-105 100:
[109] CHI BEARS +3½-110 100:
NFL
[111] CLE BROWNS +2½- 110 100 (Buy Back):
[118] TEXANS (HOUS) +10½-110 100:
[106] REDSKINS (WASH) +3-120 100:
[116] BENGALS (CINN) u48-110 100:
[110] TOTAL UNDER 55½-110 (CHI BEARS vrs PHIL EAGLES) 100:
[113] TOTAL OVER 44-110 (INDY COLTS vrs K.C. CHIEFS) 100:
[107] T.B. BUCCANEERS +6-110:
[112] N.Y. JETS -2-110 100:
[121] ARI CARDINALS +10½-105 100:
[109] CHI BEARS +3½-110 100:
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook,ag
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-4) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (10-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -3.5 & 47.5
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -3 & 46.5
NFC South co-leaders will play a huge game on Sunday when the Saints visit the Panthers.
New Orleans fell 27-16 in St. Louis last week, dropping the club to 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) in its past five road games. Carolina took out the Jets 30-20 last week to mark its sixth straight home win (5-0-1 ATS). But when these clubs met two weeks ago at the Superdome, the Saints rolled to a 31-13 rout as QB Drew Brees threw 4 TD passes, improving his record in this series to 6-2 since 2009. But Panthers QB Cam Newton piled up 304 total yards and 2 TD in leading his team to a 35-27 victory in last year’s home meeting, making this series an even 9-9 (SU and ATS) all-time in Carolina.
Last week's humiliating loss is a good sign for New Orleans on Sunday, as the team is 16-4 ATS (80%) off a road defeat, and 23-13 ATS (64%) after an SU loss under Sean Payton. But the Panthers are a hard team to sweep, going 30-11 ATS (73%) in franchise history when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 28+ points. They are also 6-0 ATS at home versus poor rushing defenses (4.5+ YPC allowed) under Ron Rivera.
Both teams are relatively healthy, with the biggest injury questions being New Orleans S Roman Harper (hip) and Carolina LB Jordan Senn (hamstring).
New Orleans leads the NFL in yardage margin, outgaining opponents by 84 YPG. The offense has piled up 397 total YPG (5th in league) thank mostly to an air attack that gains 308 YPG (2nd in NFL). The team has also been able to sustain drives with an excellent third-down conversion rate of 45% (4th in league), but its mediocre red-zone efficiency (54% TD rate, 18th in NFL) has led to just 25.6 PPG (10th in league). QB Drew Brees (4,500 pass yards, 7.8 YPA, 34 TD, 10 INT) is having another huge season, but his road numbers have been pretty ordinary (63% completions, 6.9 YPA, 11 TD, 7 INT). However, Brees has thrown for more than 300 yards in five straight meetings with Carolina, totaling 1,782 passing yards (356 YPG), 8.3 YPA, 16 TD and just 5 INT.
Brees has always done a great job of spreading around his targets, and this year there are six Saints players with at least 44 targets. TE Jimmy Graham (1,071 rec. yards, 14 TD) and WR Marques Colston (813 rec. yards, 5 TD) are the two receivers whom Brees prefers most though, and each of them scored two touchdowns in the big win over the Panthers two weeks ago. Brees' passing exploits have helped mask a dismal New Orleans running game that has averaged only 89 YPG (26th in NFL) on 3.8 YPC (27th in league). In the past three weeks, the numbers have been even worse with 58 YPG on 3.2 YPC.
The Saints defense has improved leaps and bounds from last year when it allowed 28.4 PPG and 440 YPG, as those numbers have dipped to 19.3 PPG and 313 YPG this year, both of which rank fifth-best in the NFL. Having the third-lowest time of possession (27:52) has certainly helped, as has a solid 37% third-down conversion defense (12th in NFL). But one glaring weakness has been turnovers, with the Saints tallying just two takeaways over their past seven games combined.
Carolina's offense has not been a juggernaut by any stretch, ranking 25th in total yards (326 YPG) and 17th in scoring (23.4 PPG). However, the ability for its strong ground game (129 YPG, 8th in NFL) to pick up third downs consistently (46%, 3rd in league) has led to the team ranking second in the NFL in time of possession (33:06).
QB Cam Newton is having his best pro season in terms of passing, completing 62% of his throws for 3,049 yards (7.2 YPA), 21 TD and just 11 INT. He has also run for 507 yards and six touchdowns. In his five career games in this series, Newton has pedestrian passing numbers (58% completions, 7.3 YPA, 5 TD, 3 INT) but has run for 212 yards on 5.4 YPC with two touchdowns. Newton relies mostly on two players when he drops back to pass, TE Greg Olsen (739 rec. yards, 5 TD) and WR Steve Smith (701 rec. yards, 4 TD). Although the duo combined for 14 receptions in the loss to New Orleans, those catches resulted in just 89 yards (6.4 yards per catch) with Smith's touchdown coming late in the fourth quarter with his team trailing 31-6.
With RB Jonathan Stewart (3.8 YPC) out indefinitely with a knee injury, Newton and RBs DeAngelo Williams (743 rush yards, 4.2 YPC, 2 TD) and Mike Tolbert (331 rush yards, 3.6 YPC, 5 TD) will once again propel the ground game.
Carolina's defense has been consistently excellent all season, ranking second in the NFL in both scoring defense (14.9 PPG) and total defense (296 YPG). The unit has the lowest time of possession in the NFL thanks to a league-best 22% fourth-down conversion rate and a solid third-down defense (36%, 10th in NFL). The scoring has been kept to a minimum because of a stellar red-zone defense (42%, 3rd in league). Although Carolina has forced 12 turnovers in its past seven games, this series has not had a lot of miscues with the teams combining for just 10 turnovers in the past five matchups combined.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-4) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -2 & 45
Opening Line & Total: Ravens -2 & 45
The Patriots and Ravens meet Sunday for the seventh time in five years, once again with major playoff implications on the line.
New England was unable to wrap up the AFC East last week in its 24-20 loss in Miami, but Baltimore scored a huge win Monday in Detroit with Justin Tucker connecting on six field goals including a 61-yarder in the final minute of an 18-16 victory. These clubs have split the six meetings since 2009, but the Ravens won both games last year, 31-30 on a Tucker 27-yard FG as time expired, and a dominating 28-13 victory in the AFC Championship in New England when QB Joe Flacco threw for 240 yards and 3 TD.
The Patriots are just 1-6 ATS (3-4 SU) on the road this season, while the Ravens are 6-1 SU (4-2-1 ATS) at home. However, New England has thrived in the underdog role under Bill Belichick, going 41-21 ATS (66%), and is also 28-12 ATS (70%) in the final two weeks of the regular season since 1992. But Baltimore is a stellar 15-5 ATS (75%) versus winning teams since 2011, and 16-7 ATS (70%) as a home favorite of seven points or less under John Harbaugh.
Both teams have plenty of injury concerns in this game, including both Flacco (knee) and New England QB Tom Brady (shoulder), who will both start. In addition to a slew of probable players on both teams, both Patriots starting offensive tackles, Nate Solder (head) and Marcus Cannon (ankle) are listed as questionable for this game. The Ravens could be missing two defenders in LB Albert McClellan (neck) and S Brynden Trawick (ankle), who are both considered questionable for Sunday.
New England's offense has been inconsistent this season with four games of 20 points or less and six games of 30+ points. For the season, the team ranks sixth in the NFL in scoring (26.4 PPG) and eighth in total offense (391 total YPG). While the Patriots rank sixth in the league in passing (272 YPG), they are average in most other categories, such as rushing offense (4.2 YPC, 16th in NFL), red-zone efficiency (55% TD rate, 16th in league) and third-down conversions (39%, 15th in NFL).
QB Tom Brady (4,049 pass yards, 7.0 YPA, 23 TD, 10 INT) has played very well over the past six weeks with 2,225 pass yards (371 YPG), 8.2 YPA, 14 TD and 4 INT. However, he has played terribly in the past five meetings with the Ravens (four of which were at home), throwing for only 6.2 YPA, 5 TD and 9 INT. Although he will likely get WR Aaron Dobson (foot) back on the field this week, Brady will still be missing TE Rob Gronkowski (knee, IR), while WRs Kenbrell Thompkins (hip) and Josh Boyce (foot) are both questionable. Brady still has plenty of options to choose from though, including WRs Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, who each eclipsed 130 receiving yards last week with double-digit catches.
The New England running game has featured nine different ball carriers this year, and currently ranks 12th in the NFL with 118.3 YPG. RB Stevan Ridley leads the way with 645 yards on 4.3 YPC and 7 TD, but he has been plagued by fumble problems all year, and also lost a fumble in the AFC Championship loss to the Ravens last year.
On defense, the Patriots have given up a ton of yardage (372.7 YPG, 24th in NFL), especially on the ground (132.5 rushing YPG, 2nd-worst in league). But although they are horrible on third downs (43%, 4th-worst in NFL) and subpar in the red zone (58%, 21st in league), the team has allowed just 22.2 PPG (T-10th in NFL). The defense needs to be more opportunistic though, having caused just two turnovers in three December games.
The Ravens' offense has been bad in all facets this year, ranking last in the NFL with 3.0 yards per carry and second-worst with 4.6 yards per play, leading to a mere 309.9 YPG (4th-worst in NFL). They are scoring only 21.1 PPG (25th in league) due largely to an anemic red-zone offense (49% TD rate, 4th-worst in NFL). QB Joe Flacco has a career-low passer rating of 76.5, completing only 58.9% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, 18 TD and 17 INT. He has been much more efficient at home though, completing 62% of his passes for 6.9 YPA, 10 TD and 6 INT. Flacco has also enjoyed plenty of success in six games against the Patriots in his career, throwing for 1,511 yards (252 YPG), 12 TD and 4 INT. In last year's two victories in this series, he threw for 622 yards (8.3 YPA), 6 TD and just one interception.
RB Ray Rice has also dominated the Patriots in his career with 735 total yards (122.5 YPG) and 4 TD in six meetings, but he is in the midst of his worst NFL season. Injuries are a big reason why Rice has a career-low 3.1 YPC and has topped 75 rushing yards just once all season.
Baltimore's defense has carried the team in 2013, ranking seventh in the league in points allowed (19.8 PPG) and ninth in total defense (334.0 YPG). This has occurred because of an excellent third-down defense (32%, 3rd in NFL) and red-zone efficiency (43% TD rate, 4th in league). The Ravens have really stuffed the run too, allowing a mere 102.4 YPG (7th in NFL) and 3.8 YPC (5th in league). They have also made some big plays, forcing three turnovers in three of the past six contests.
By Sportsbook,ag
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-4) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (10-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -3.5 & 47.5
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -3 & 46.5
NFC South co-leaders will play a huge game on Sunday when the Saints visit the Panthers.
New Orleans fell 27-16 in St. Louis last week, dropping the club to 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) in its past five road games. Carolina took out the Jets 30-20 last week to mark its sixth straight home win (5-0-1 ATS). But when these clubs met two weeks ago at the Superdome, the Saints rolled to a 31-13 rout as QB Drew Brees threw 4 TD passes, improving his record in this series to 6-2 since 2009. But Panthers QB Cam Newton piled up 304 total yards and 2 TD in leading his team to a 35-27 victory in last year’s home meeting, making this series an even 9-9 (SU and ATS) all-time in Carolina.
Last week's humiliating loss is a good sign for New Orleans on Sunday, as the team is 16-4 ATS (80%) off a road defeat, and 23-13 ATS (64%) after an SU loss under Sean Payton. But the Panthers are a hard team to sweep, going 30-11 ATS (73%) in franchise history when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 28+ points. They are also 6-0 ATS at home versus poor rushing defenses (4.5+ YPC allowed) under Ron Rivera.
Both teams are relatively healthy, with the biggest injury questions being New Orleans S Roman Harper (hip) and Carolina LB Jordan Senn (hamstring).
New Orleans leads the NFL in yardage margin, outgaining opponents by 84 YPG. The offense has piled up 397 total YPG (5th in league) thank mostly to an air attack that gains 308 YPG (2nd in NFL). The team has also been able to sustain drives with an excellent third-down conversion rate of 45% (4th in league), but its mediocre red-zone efficiency (54% TD rate, 18th in NFL) has led to just 25.6 PPG (10th in league). QB Drew Brees (4,500 pass yards, 7.8 YPA, 34 TD, 10 INT) is having another huge season, but his road numbers have been pretty ordinary (63% completions, 6.9 YPA, 11 TD, 7 INT). However, Brees has thrown for more than 300 yards in five straight meetings with Carolina, totaling 1,782 passing yards (356 YPG), 8.3 YPA, 16 TD and just 5 INT.
Brees has always done a great job of spreading around his targets, and this year there are six Saints players with at least 44 targets. TE Jimmy Graham (1,071 rec. yards, 14 TD) and WR Marques Colston (813 rec. yards, 5 TD) are the two receivers whom Brees prefers most though, and each of them scored two touchdowns in the big win over the Panthers two weeks ago. Brees' passing exploits have helped mask a dismal New Orleans running game that has averaged only 89 YPG (26th in NFL) on 3.8 YPC (27th in league). In the past three weeks, the numbers have been even worse with 58 YPG on 3.2 YPC.
The Saints defense has improved leaps and bounds from last year when it allowed 28.4 PPG and 440 YPG, as those numbers have dipped to 19.3 PPG and 313 YPG this year, both of which rank fifth-best in the NFL. Having the third-lowest time of possession (27:52) has certainly helped, as has a solid 37% third-down conversion defense (12th in NFL). But one glaring weakness has been turnovers, with the Saints tallying just two takeaways over their past seven games combined.
Carolina's offense has not been a juggernaut by any stretch, ranking 25th in total yards (326 YPG) and 17th in scoring (23.4 PPG). However, the ability for its strong ground game (129 YPG, 8th in NFL) to pick up third downs consistently (46%, 3rd in league) has led to the team ranking second in the NFL in time of possession (33:06).
QB Cam Newton is having his best pro season in terms of passing, completing 62% of his throws for 3,049 yards (7.2 YPA), 21 TD and just 11 INT. He has also run for 507 yards and six touchdowns. In his five career games in this series, Newton has pedestrian passing numbers (58% completions, 7.3 YPA, 5 TD, 3 INT) but has run for 212 yards on 5.4 YPC with two touchdowns. Newton relies mostly on two players when he drops back to pass, TE Greg Olsen (739 rec. yards, 5 TD) and WR Steve Smith (701 rec. yards, 4 TD). Although the duo combined for 14 receptions in the loss to New Orleans, those catches resulted in just 89 yards (6.4 yards per catch) with Smith's touchdown coming late in the fourth quarter with his team trailing 31-6.
With RB Jonathan Stewart (3.8 YPC) out indefinitely with a knee injury, Newton and RBs DeAngelo Williams (743 rush yards, 4.2 YPC, 2 TD) and Mike Tolbert (331 rush yards, 3.6 YPC, 5 TD) will once again propel the ground game.
Carolina's defense has been consistently excellent all season, ranking second in the NFL in both scoring defense (14.9 PPG) and total defense (296 YPG). The unit has the lowest time of possession in the NFL thanks to a league-best 22% fourth-down conversion rate and a solid third-down defense (36%, 10th in NFL). The scoring has been kept to a minimum because of a stellar red-zone defense (42%, 3rd in league). Although Carolina has forced 12 turnovers in its past seven games, this series has not had a lot of miscues with the teams combining for just 10 turnovers in the past five matchups combined.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-4) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -2 & 45
Opening Line & Total: Ravens -2 & 45
The Patriots and Ravens meet Sunday for the seventh time in five years, once again with major playoff implications on the line.
New England was unable to wrap up the AFC East last week in its 24-20 loss in Miami, but Baltimore scored a huge win Monday in Detroit with Justin Tucker connecting on six field goals including a 61-yarder in the final minute of an 18-16 victory. These clubs have split the six meetings since 2009, but the Ravens won both games last year, 31-30 on a Tucker 27-yard FG as time expired, and a dominating 28-13 victory in the AFC Championship in New England when QB Joe Flacco threw for 240 yards and 3 TD.
The Patriots are just 1-6 ATS (3-4 SU) on the road this season, while the Ravens are 6-1 SU (4-2-1 ATS) at home. However, New England has thrived in the underdog role under Bill Belichick, going 41-21 ATS (66%), and is also 28-12 ATS (70%) in the final two weeks of the regular season since 1992. But Baltimore is a stellar 15-5 ATS (75%) versus winning teams since 2011, and 16-7 ATS (70%) as a home favorite of seven points or less under John Harbaugh.
Both teams have plenty of injury concerns in this game, including both Flacco (knee) and New England QB Tom Brady (shoulder), who will both start. In addition to a slew of probable players on both teams, both Patriots starting offensive tackles, Nate Solder (head) and Marcus Cannon (ankle) are listed as questionable for this game. The Ravens could be missing two defenders in LB Albert McClellan (neck) and S Brynden Trawick (ankle), who are both considered questionable for Sunday.
New England's offense has been inconsistent this season with four games of 20 points or less and six games of 30+ points. For the season, the team ranks sixth in the NFL in scoring (26.4 PPG) and eighth in total offense (391 total YPG). While the Patriots rank sixth in the league in passing (272 YPG), they are average in most other categories, such as rushing offense (4.2 YPC, 16th in NFL), red-zone efficiency (55% TD rate, 16th in league) and third-down conversions (39%, 15th in NFL).
QB Tom Brady (4,049 pass yards, 7.0 YPA, 23 TD, 10 INT) has played very well over the past six weeks with 2,225 pass yards (371 YPG), 8.2 YPA, 14 TD and 4 INT. However, he has played terribly in the past five meetings with the Ravens (four of which were at home), throwing for only 6.2 YPA, 5 TD and 9 INT. Although he will likely get WR Aaron Dobson (foot) back on the field this week, Brady will still be missing TE Rob Gronkowski (knee, IR), while WRs Kenbrell Thompkins (hip) and Josh Boyce (foot) are both questionable. Brady still has plenty of options to choose from though, including WRs Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, who each eclipsed 130 receiving yards last week with double-digit catches.
The New England running game has featured nine different ball carriers this year, and currently ranks 12th in the NFL with 118.3 YPG. RB Stevan Ridley leads the way with 645 yards on 4.3 YPC and 7 TD, but he has been plagued by fumble problems all year, and also lost a fumble in the AFC Championship loss to the Ravens last year.
On defense, the Patriots have given up a ton of yardage (372.7 YPG, 24th in NFL), especially on the ground (132.5 rushing YPG, 2nd-worst in league). But although they are horrible on third downs (43%, 4th-worst in NFL) and subpar in the red zone (58%, 21st in league), the team has allowed just 22.2 PPG (T-10th in NFL). The defense needs to be more opportunistic though, having caused just two turnovers in three December games.
The Ravens' offense has been bad in all facets this year, ranking last in the NFL with 3.0 yards per carry and second-worst with 4.6 yards per play, leading to a mere 309.9 YPG (4th-worst in NFL). They are scoring only 21.1 PPG (25th in league) due largely to an anemic red-zone offense (49% TD rate, 4th-worst in NFL). QB Joe Flacco has a career-low passer rating of 76.5, completing only 58.9% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, 18 TD and 17 INT. He has been much more efficient at home though, completing 62% of his passes for 6.9 YPA, 10 TD and 6 INT. Flacco has also enjoyed plenty of success in six games against the Patriots in his career, throwing for 1,511 yards (252 YPG), 12 TD and 4 INT. In last year's two victories in this series, he threw for 622 yards (8.3 YPA), 6 TD and just one interception.
RB Ray Rice has also dominated the Patriots in his career with 735 total yards (122.5 YPG) and 4 TD in six meetings, but he is in the midst of his worst NFL season. Injuries are a big reason why Rice has a career-low 3.1 YPC and has topped 75 rushing yards just once all season.
Baltimore's defense has carried the team in 2013, ranking seventh in the league in points allowed (19.8 PPG) and ninth in total defense (334.0 YPG). This has occurred because of an excellent third-down defense (32%, 3rd in NFL) and red-zone efficiency (43% TD rate, 4th in league). The Ravens have really stuffed the run too, allowing a mere 102.4 YPG (7th in NFL) and 3.8 YPC (5th in league). They have also made some big plays, forcing three turnovers in three of the past six contests.
Sharp Moves - Week 16
By Mike Rose
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 16!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.
Buffalo +2.5 - This is definitely the sharpest play on the board this week. The Bills are playing at home in the cold weather against a Miami team which really needs this game to have a shot at getting into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the offensive line problems for Miami still haven't been fixed, and the pass rush for Buffalo is still the strength of its team. Truthfully, we believe that the Bills should be the favored side in this one, and the less than 30% of the public betting on this game believe the same as we do. There's a reason the oddsmakers aren't pushing this one to '3' even with all of the public action on the Fins.
Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Miami
Washington +2.5 - Go ahead. Ask yourself the question. How in the heck is WASHINGTON sharp? The Redskins have been an abysmal wreck all season long, but they did show a pulse last week against the Falcons, coming from behind to hit the backdoor right at the end of the game. Could the same be said about this week? QB Kirk Cousins turns the ball over in the clutch less than QB Tony Romo (obviously!), and that might make all the difference in the world. Dallas has proven that it can collapse under any circumstance, and going on the road, even against a team which doesn't want to play anymore football this year, could be another one of these situations.
Opening Line: Washington +2.5
Current Line: Washington +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Dallas
Tampa Bay +5.5 - It's funny how the public always react to what it sees most recently. Most recently, it saw the Bucs get killed by the 49ers in a game which, by the way, was actually a close game until the wheels sort of fell off there in the third quarter. And most recently, the Rams destroyed the Saints, who are still perceived to be one of the best teams in the NFL, though we aren't all that sure whether they are or they aren't at this point. It just created a goofy looking line in this game. The Rams don't necessarily have the best team on the field in this one, but the oddsmakers are insinuating they are going to win by a healthy margin. The dial has moved a tad in this one, but not enough to sway away the sharp bettors.
Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on St. Louis
By Mike Rose
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 16!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.
Buffalo +2.5 - This is definitely the sharpest play on the board this week. The Bills are playing at home in the cold weather against a Miami team which really needs this game to have a shot at getting into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the offensive line problems for Miami still haven't been fixed, and the pass rush for Buffalo is still the strength of its team. Truthfully, we believe that the Bills should be the favored side in this one, and the less than 30% of the public betting on this game believe the same as we do. There's a reason the oddsmakers aren't pushing this one to '3' even with all of the public action on the Fins.
Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Miami
Washington +2.5 - Go ahead. Ask yourself the question. How in the heck is WASHINGTON sharp? The Redskins have been an abysmal wreck all season long, but they did show a pulse last week against the Falcons, coming from behind to hit the backdoor right at the end of the game. Could the same be said about this week? QB Kirk Cousins turns the ball over in the clutch less than QB Tony Romo (obviously!), and that might make all the difference in the world. Dallas has proven that it can collapse under any circumstance, and going on the road, even against a team which doesn't want to play anymore football this year, could be another one of these situations.
Opening Line: Washington +2.5
Current Line: Washington +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Dallas
Tampa Bay +5.5 - It's funny how the public always react to what it sees most recently. Most recently, it saw the Bucs get killed by the 49ers in a game which, by the way, was actually a close game until the wheels sort of fell off there in the third quarter. And most recently, the Rams destroyed the Saints, who are still perceived to be one of the best teams in the NFL, though we aren't all that sure whether they are or they aren't at this point. It just created a goofy looking line in this game. The Rams don't necessarily have the best team on the field in this one, but the oddsmakers are insinuating they are going to win by a healthy margin. The dial has moved a tad in this one, but not enough to sway away the sharp bettors.
Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on St. Louis
WUNDERDOG SPORTS FREE PICK
NFL Game: Denver at Houston (Sunday 12/22 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 52.5 (-110)
What do you think the odds would have been at the beginning of the season on Houston earning the #1 pick in next year's draft? How about after they started 2-0? The are big problems here for the Texans as they have lost 12 straight games, and while they have a defense that is still ranked #4 in the league in fewest yards allowed, they have an offense that has given up more scores than any team in the league. Add in the big plays they give up, and special teams flaws, and while they rank #4 in fewest yards allowed, the Texans rank #25 in points allowed at 26.8 points per game. Points is what matters. Denver is all offense. It doesn't seem to matter what the defense is doing, they simply get their points, and plenty of them at 38.2 ppg. There is a problem
for Denver however; They allow 26.6 ppg themselves, and their games have subsequently played to am 11-3 mark to the OVER this season and 23-15 OVER under John Fox. I don't see anything different here. Following a loss, the Broncos are now 39-12-2 to the OVER in their last 53. In the Fox era, this team is 11-3 OVER after and UNDER. This one is going to be a shootout, so play on the OVER
NFL Game: Denver at Houston (Sunday 12/22 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 52.5 (-110)
What do you think the odds would have been at the beginning of the season on Houston earning the #1 pick in next year's draft? How about after they started 2-0? The are big problems here for the Texans as they have lost 12 straight games, and while they have a defense that is still ranked #4 in the league in fewest yards allowed, they have an offense that has given up more scores than any team in the league. Add in the big plays they give up, and special teams flaws, and while they rank #4 in fewest yards allowed, the Texans rank #25 in points allowed at 26.8 points per game. Points is what matters. Denver is all offense. It doesn't seem to matter what the defense is doing, they simply get their points, and plenty of them at 38.2 ppg. There is a problem
for Denver however; They allow 26.6 ppg themselves, and their games have subsequently played to am 11-3 mark to the OVER this season and 23-15 OVER under John Fox. I don't see anything different here. Following a loss, the Broncos are now 39-12-2 to the OVER in their last 53. In the Fox era, this team is 11-3 OVER after and UNDER. This one is going to be a shootout, so play on the OVER
Sunday's NFL Week 16 betting cheat sheet: Late action
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)
Arizona’s defense ranks seventh in total defense (322.3) and eighth in scoring defense (20.8), and veteran linebacker John Abraham is having a standout campaign with 11.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. Veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is expected to play against the Seahawks despite suffering a concussion last week. Cardinals WR Michael Floyd’s last 24 receptions have all gone for first downs.
Marshawn Lynch is over 1,000 yards for the third straight season and fifth time in his career and rushed for a solid 91 yards in the first meeting with the Cardinals. Arizona leads the NFL in rushing defense (83.2) so yards could be tough to come by in the rematch with the Cardinals, who desperately need a victory. The Seahawks forced eight turnovers while trouncing the Cardinals 58-0 in last season’s meeting in Seattle.
LINE: Seattle opened at -10 but has been bet up a half-point, while the total has dropped two points to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the length of the field at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-3.0) + Seattle (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -8
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
* Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 49)
Eli Manning's trainwreck of a season reached its nadir when he threw a career-high five interceptions against Seattle, boosting his total to a league-worst 25 and matching his career high from 2010. His passer rating of 69.7 is his lowest since his rookie campaign and doesn't figure to get any better with leading receiver Victor Cruz dealing with a concussion and a sprained knee that will cause him to miss Sunday's game.
Manning is not the only QB who has been a turnover machine - Detroit's Matt Stafford has picked been off 10 times and lost two fumbles in the past five games. Three more interceptions by Stafford in last week's 18-16 loss at Baltimore continued the Lions' inability to protect a fourth-quarter lead, which has occurred in each of their last four defeats. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is second in the league with 1.449 yards.
LINE: The Lions opened at -10 while the total has held steady at 49.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.5) + Detroit (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -9
TRENDS:
* Giants are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)
Quarterback Matt McGloin had his worst performance since taking over the starting job, tossing four interceptions and losing a fumble in the debacle against the Chiefs. Oft-injured running back Darren McFadden returned to practice and could be back in the lineup, but Oakland has received solid production from backup Rashad Jennings, who rushed for 91 yards last week and recorded his second straight two-touchdown game.
Even though San Diego's postseason hopes appear remote, quarterback Philip Rivers guided the team to its biggest upset of the season by throwing a pair of touchdown passes in a 27-20 win at Denver last week. Running back Ryan Mathews has his own checkered injury history, but he tied his season high with 127 yards and went over 100 yards for the fifth time in the past nine games.
LINE: San Diego is steady as a 10-point fave, with the total up one point to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) + San Diego (-1.3) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -10.3
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.
* Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.
* Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 45)
Pittsburgh has rallied in the second half of the season but can't help but kick itself for four losses by a touchdown or less, including a 34-28 setback against Miami two weeks ago that would have dramatically improved its playoff chances. Ben Roethlisberger will try to channel his performance from his only previous regular-season meeting with the Packers in which he threw for a career-best 503 yards and three TDs.
The Packers will be without starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who wasn't cleared this week despite returning to practice as he continues his recovery from a collarbone injury. Green Bay came back from a 26-3 halftime deficit to beat Dallas last week and revived its playoff hopes in the process. The Packers have won their final regular-season home game in eight straight seasons and 20 of the last 21.
LINE: The Packers opened -2.5 but are now -1.5. The total is set at 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 93 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the length of the field at 15 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (0.0) + Green Bay (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Steelers -1
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 45)
Tom Brady, whose completion percentage is his lowest since 2004, needs one win to match Dan Marino (147) for fourth place on the all-time list. The future Hall of Famer threw a late interception to seal last week's 24-20 loss to the Dolphins - the Patriots' first game since losing All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski to a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago.
Baltimore's four-game winning streak is tied for the NFL's longest with San Francisco - the team it beat to win last season's Super Bowl - and the Ravens' last two wins have come in dramatic fashion. Justin Tucker's 61-yard field goal in the final minute stunned Detroit on Monday night, one week after Joe Flacco capped a back-and-forth thriller against Minnesota with the game-winning touchdown pass with four seconds left.
LINE: Baltimore opened -2.5 and is now -1.5, with the total down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 55 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing across the width of the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-4.8) - Baltimore (-0.5) - home field (-3.0) = Patriots -1.3
TRENDS:
* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous outing.
* Ravens are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)
Chicago would like to keep some distance between itself and the Packers, who visit the Bears in the regular-season finale. The offense is humming right along no matter who is under center but the defense is an issue, surrendering an average of 31 points over the last four games and ranking last in the NFL against the run. Chicago RB Matt Forte has gone over 100 yards rushing in three straight games.
Philadelphia will be scoreboard-watching early in the day, needing a loss by the Cowboys to make a win over the Bears a division-clincher. The Eagles will also be looking for more out of a pass defense that is ranked 31st in the league. Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week but has thrown an interception in each of the last two games after going his first seven starts without a pick.
LINE: Philadelphia opened as a 3.5-point fave, but has been bet down to -3. The total is up one point to 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 53 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + Philadelphia (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -3.5
TRENDS:
* Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Over is 17-4 in Chicago's last 21 games following a SU win.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)
Arizona’s defense ranks seventh in total defense (322.3) and eighth in scoring defense (20.8), and veteran linebacker John Abraham is having a standout campaign with 11.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. Veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is expected to play against the Seahawks despite suffering a concussion last week. Cardinals WR Michael Floyd’s last 24 receptions have all gone for first downs.
Marshawn Lynch is over 1,000 yards for the third straight season and fifth time in his career and rushed for a solid 91 yards in the first meeting with the Cardinals. Arizona leads the NFL in rushing defense (83.2) so yards could be tough to come by in the rematch with the Cardinals, who desperately need a victory. The Seahawks forced eight turnovers while trouncing the Cardinals 58-0 in last season’s meeting in Seattle.
LINE: Seattle opened at -10 but has been bet up a half-point, while the total has dropped two points to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the length of the field at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-3.0) + Seattle (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -8
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
* Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 49)
Eli Manning's trainwreck of a season reached its nadir when he threw a career-high five interceptions against Seattle, boosting his total to a league-worst 25 and matching his career high from 2010. His passer rating of 69.7 is his lowest since his rookie campaign and doesn't figure to get any better with leading receiver Victor Cruz dealing with a concussion and a sprained knee that will cause him to miss Sunday's game.
Manning is not the only QB who has been a turnover machine - Detroit's Matt Stafford has picked been off 10 times and lost two fumbles in the past five games. Three more interceptions by Stafford in last week's 18-16 loss at Baltimore continued the Lions' inability to protect a fourth-quarter lead, which has occurred in each of their last four defeats. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is second in the league with 1.449 yards.
LINE: The Lions opened at -10 while the total has held steady at 49.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.5) + Detroit (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -9
TRENDS:
* Giants are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)
Quarterback Matt McGloin had his worst performance since taking over the starting job, tossing four interceptions and losing a fumble in the debacle against the Chiefs. Oft-injured running back Darren McFadden returned to practice and could be back in the lineup, but Oakland has received solid production from backup Rashad Jennings, who rushed for 91 yards last week and recorded his second straight two-touchdown game.
Even though San Diego's postseason hopes appear remote, quarterback Philip Rivers guided the team to its biggest upset of the season by throwing a pair of touchdown passes in a 27-20 win at Denver last week. Running back Ryan Mathews has his own checkered injury history, but he tied his season high with 127 yards and went over 100 yards for the fifth time in the past nine games.
LINE: San Diego is steady as a 10-point fave, with the total up one point to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) + San Diego (-1.3) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -10.3
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.
* Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.
* Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 45)
Pittsburgh has rallied in the second half of the season but can't help but kick itself for four losses by a touchdown or less, including a 34-28 setback against Miami two weeks ago that would have dramatically improved its playoff chances. Ben Roethlisberger will try to channel his performance from his only previous regular-season meeting with the Packers in which he threw for a career-best 503 yards and three TDs.
The Packers will be without starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who wasn't cleared this week despite returning to practice as he continues his recovery from a collarbone injury. Green Bay came back from a 26-3 halftime deficit to beat Dallas last week and revived its playoff hopes in the process. The Packers have won their final regular-season home game in eight straight seasons and 20 of the last 21.
LINE: The Packers opened -2.5 but are now -1.5. The total is set at 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 93 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the length of the field at 15 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (0.0) + Green Bay (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Steelers -1
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 45)
Tom Brady, whose completion percentage is his lowest since 2004, needs one win to match Dan Marino (147) for fourth place on the all-time list. The future Hall of Famer threw a late interception to seal last week's 24-20 loss to the Dolphins - the Patriots' first game since losing All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski to a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago.
Baltimore's four-game winning streak is tied for the NFL's longest with San Francisco - the team it beat to win last season's Super Bowl - and the Ravens' last two wins have come in dramatic fashion. Justin Tucker's 61-yard field goal in the final minute stunned Detroit on Monday night, one week after Joe Flacco capped a back-and-forth thriller against Minnesota with the game-winning touchdown pass with four seconds left.
LINE: Baltimore opened -2.5 and is now -1.5, with the total down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 55 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing across the width of the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-4.8) - Baltimore (-0.5) - home field (-3.0) = Patriots -1.3
TRENDS:
* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous outing.
* Ravens are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)
Chicago would like to keep some distance between itself and the Packers, who visit the Bears in the regular-season finale. The offense is humming right along no matter who is under center but the defense is an issue, surrendering an average of 31 points over the last four games and ranking last in the NFL against the run. Chicago RB Matt Forte has gone over 100 yards rushing in three straight games.
Philadelphia will be scoreboard-watching early in the day, needing a loss by the Cowboys to make a win over the Bears a division-clincher. The Eagles will also be looking for more out of a pass defense that is ranked 31st in the league. Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week but has thrown an interception in each of the last two games after going his first seven starts without a pick.
LINE: Philadelphia opened as a 3.5-point fave, but has been bet down to -3. The total is up one point to 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 53 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + Philadelphia (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -3.5
TRENDS:
* Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Over is 17-4 in Chicago's last 21 games following a SU win.
NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts
Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 54 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 12 mph.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph. There is a small 10 percent chance of rain.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 47.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 14 mph. There is a 54 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 44)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 14 mph.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42.5)
Forecasts are calling for rain with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-50s.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)
There is an 81 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-70s.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 53.5)
There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 10 mph.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 4 mph.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 45)
The forecast is calling for snow in Green Bay with temperatures in the low-20s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 12 mph.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 45)
There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)
There is a 53 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low-60s. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.
Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 54 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 12 mph.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph. There is a small 10 percent chance of rain.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 47.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 14 mph. There is a 54 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 44)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 14 mph.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42.5)
Forecasts are calling for rain with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-50s.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)
There is an 81 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-70s.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 53.5)
There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 10 mph.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 4 mph.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 45)
The forecast is calling for snow in Green Bay with temperatures in the low-20s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 12 mph.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 45)
There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)
There is a 53 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low-60s. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.
Saints at Panthers: What bettors need to know
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)
The NFL postseason officially doesn't begin for two more weeks, but Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera considers Sunday's rematch against the visiting New Orleans Saints his team's first playoff game. "The next two games as far as I'm concerned are exactly that," Rivera told reporters. "There's a lot of importance to this game because of the importance going forward. This is about as big as it gets." The Saints can clinch the NFC South title and a first-round bye with a win, while a Panthers victory would clinch a playoff spot and put Carolina in position to claim the division and the No. 2 seed with a win next week at Atlanta.
The Saints, who were sloppy in a 27-16 loss at St. Louis last week, will try to duplicate their performance from a 31-13 home win over Carolina two weeks ago, while the Panthers have studied New Orleans' last two losses in search of wrinkles that could help reverse the result. "There were some mistakes in that game, some things that we didn't do very well and that we have to do better," Rivera told reporters. "We'll have to take a real good look at (the two losses) and see which of those things mesh well with what we do and maybe try to incorporate those things." New Orleans has won five of the past seven meetings but lost 35-27 in its most recent trip to Carolina last season.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
LINE: Carolina opened -3. The total is up one point from the opener of 45.5.
WEATHER: There is an 81 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (10-4): Drew Brees and New Orleans got the better of Carolina's stingy defense in the first meeting, in large part because they held on to the ball - eight of the Saints' 17 turnovers have come in their four losses. Brees (4,500 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs) is on pace for his third straight 5,000-yard season and put up 313 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers two weeks ago. The defense continues to impress statistically, ranking fifth in total yards and points allowed, but the recent lack of takeaways is alarming with just two in the past seven games.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (10-4): The Saints are the only team to beat Carolina since Week 5, as the Panthers have won nine of 10 to move to the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2008. Coincidentally, New Orleans is also the only team all season that did not commit a turnover against the Panthers, whose dominant defense has racked up 27 takeaways. DeAngelo Williams (743 yards, two TDs) and quarterback Cam Newton (507 yards, six TDs) lead a powerful running game, but the Panthers likely will need to get the passing game going to outscore Brees and the Saints.
TRENDS:
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Carolina.
* Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Panthers last four vs. NFC.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham has six 100-yard games, tied for the most in a season by a tight end in NFL history.
2. Newton's 89 total touchdowns (61 passing, 28 rushing) are the second-most for an NFL player in his first three seasons, trailing only Dan Marino (100).
3. The Saints cut K Garrett Hartley and signed Shayne Graham. Hartley was 22-of-30 on field goals this season, including two misses last week.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)
The NFL postseason officially doesn't begin for two more weeks, but Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera considers Sunday's rematch against the visiting New Orleans Saints his team's first playoff game. "The next two games as far as I'm concerned are exactly that," Rivera told reporters. "There's a lot of importance to this game because of the importance going forward. This is about as big as it gets." The Saints can clinch the NFC South title and a first-round bye with a win, while a Panthers victory would clinch a playoff spot and put Carolina in position to claim the division and the No. 2 seed with a win next week at Atlanta.
The Saints, who were sloppy in a 27-16 loss at St. Louis last week, will try to duplicate their performance from a 31-13 home win over Carolina two weeks ago, while the Panthers have studied New Orleans' last two losses in search of wrinkles that could help reverse the result. "There were some mistakes in that game, some things that we didn't do very well and that we have to do better," Rivera told reporters. "We'll have to take a real good look at (the two losses) and see which of those things mesh well with what we do and maybe try to incorporate those things." New Orleans has won five of the past seven meetings but lost 35-27 in its most recent trip to Carolina last season.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
LINE: Carolina opened -3. The total is up one point from the opener of 45.5.
WEATHER: There is an 81 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (10-4): Drew Brees and New Orleans got the better of Carolina's stingy defense in the first meeting, in large part because they held on to the ball - eight of the Saints' 17 turnovers have come in their four losses. Brees (4,500 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs) is on pace for his third straight 5,000-yard season and put up 313 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers two weeks ago. The defense continues to impress statistically, ranking fifth in total yards and points allowed, but the recent lack of takeaways is alarming with just two in the past seven games.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (10-4): The Saints are the only team to beat Carolina since Week 5, as the Panthers have won nine of 10 to move to the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2008. Coincidentally, New Orleans is also the only team all season that did not commit a turnover against the Panthers, whose dominant defense has racked up 27 takeaways. DeAngelo Williams (743 yards, two TDs) and quarterback Cam Newton (507 yards, six TDs) lead a powerful running game, but the Panthers likely will need to get the passing game going to outscore Brees and the Saints.
TRENDS:
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Carolina.
* Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Panthers last four vs. NFC.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham has six 100-yard games, tied for the most in a season by a tight end in NFL history.
2. Newton's 89 total touchdowns (61 passing, 28 rushing) are the second-most for an NFL player in his first three seasons, trailing only Dan Marino (100).
3. The Saints cut K Garrett Hartley and signed Shayne Graham. Hartley was 22-of-30 on field goals this season, including two misses last week.
Colts at Chiefs: What bettors need to know
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)
The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs are already locked into the playoffs, but where they're seeded is still in doubt as they square off Sunday in Kansas City. The Colts have clinched the AFC South but could still be seeded anywhere from first to fourth, while the Chiefs will get at least a wild card but likely need two more wins - and at least one Denver loss - to win the AFC West. It's an incredibly even matchup on paper, as the teams' season averages are separated by 3.9 yards of total offense and 2.6 yards of total defense.
The teams could meet again in Indianapolis in two weeks in the playoffs, but Kansas City coach Andy Reid says that won't affect either club's approach Sunday. "I think you prepare yourself the same way. … You go get yourself ready to play four quarters of good football," Reid told reporters. "If you play them again, you get yourself ready again. We're far along into the season where … you're not going to run out of plays." The Colts have won in four of their last five trips to Kansas City, including a 20-13 victory in Week 16 last season.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: The Chiefs opened -6.5 and are now -7. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph.
ABOUT THE COLTS (9-5): Indianapolis has been wildly inconsistent following its 4-1 start, alternating wins and losses in nine games since, and the Colts are coming off a strong performance in a 25-3 victory over Houston, so they might be due for another letdown. Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck (3,299 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs) has been solid, but the Colts haven't generated much on the ground since the trade for Trent Richardson. The defense gives up a lot of yards but also wreaks its share of havoc with Robert Mathis (16.5 sacks, six forced fumbles) and Darius Butler (four interceptions) leading the way.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-3): Kansas City's defense led the way during its 9-0 start - the Chiefs allow an AFC-low 18.2 points per game and have the best turnover margin in the league at plus-21 - but the offense has been impressive the past two weeks. The Chiefs have rolled up 101 points in consecutive wins at Washington and Oakland and they've topped 28 points in four straight games. Jamaal Charles is the catalyst, leading the team in rushing yards (1,181), receptions (65), receiving yards (655) and scoring 18 touchdowns.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.
* Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Colts last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last four games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Kansas City's 11 wins are tied with the 2008 Miami Dolphins and the 2012 Colts for the most victories in NFL history by a team that won two or fewer games the previous season.
2. Luck needs 248 passing yards to pass Cam Newton (7,920) for the most by an NFL quarterback in his first two seasons, and he needs 77 rushing yards to pass Mike Pagel (441) for the most in a season by a Colts quarterback.
3. Smith (384) needs three rushing yards to pass Tyler Thigpen for the most in a season by a Chiefs quarterback.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)
The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs are already locked into the playoffs, but where they're seeded is still in doubt as they square off Sunday in Kansas City. The Colts have clinched the AFC South but could still be seeded anywhere from first to fourth, while the Chiefs will get at least a wild card but likely need two more wins - and at least one Denver loss - to win the AFC West. It's an incredibly even matchup on paper, as the teams' season averages are separated by 3.9 yards of total offense and 2.6 yards of total defense.
The teams could meet again in Indianapolis in two weeks in the playoffs, but Kansas City coach Andy Reid says that won't affect either club's approach Sunday. "I think you prepare yourself the same way. … You go get yourself ready to play four quarters of good football," Reid told reporters. "If you play them again, you get yourself ready again. We're far along into the season where … you're not going to run out of plays." The Colts have won in four of their last five trips to Kansas City, including a 20-13 victory in Week 16 last season.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: The Chiefs opened -6.5 and are now -7. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph.
ABOUT THE COLTS (9-5): Indianapolis has been wildly inconsistent following its 4-1 start, alternating wins and losses in nine games since, and the Colts are coming off a strong performance in a 25-3 victory over Houston, so they might be due for another letdown. Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck (3,299 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs) has been solid, but the Colts haven't generated much on the ground since the trade for Trent Richardson. The defense gives up a lot of yards but also wreaks its share of havoc with Robert Mathis (16.5 sacks, six forced fumbles) and Darius Butler (four interceptions) leading the way.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-3): Kansas City's defense led the way during its 9-0 start - the Chiefs allow an AFC-low 18.2 points per game and have the best turnover margin in the league at plus-21 - but the offense has been impressive the past two weeks. The Chiefs have rolled up 101 points in consecutive wins at Washington and Oakland and they've topped 28 points in four straight games. Jamaal Charles is the catalyst, leading the team in rushing yards (1,181), receptions (65), receiving yards (655) and scoring 18 touchdowns.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.
* Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Colts last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last four games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Kansas City's 11 wins are tied with the 2008 Miami Dolphins and the 2012 Colts for the most victories in NFL history by a team that won two or fewer games the previous season.
2. Luck needs 248 passing yards to pass Cam Newton (7,920) for the most by an NFL quarterback in his first two seasons, and he needs 77 rushing yards to pass Mike Pagel (441) for the most in a season by a Colts quarterback.
3. Smith (384) needs three rushing yards to pass Tyler Thigpen for the most in a season by a Chiefs quarterback.
NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers
By MONIQUE VÁG
When marquee players go down with injuries, oddsmakers notice and value is lost for bettors. The key is to find lesser-known players that could have an impact on the scoreboard. Here are four NFL injuries not to undervalue in Week 16:
Peyton Hillis, RB, New York Giants (Out, concussion)
While the Giants have been mathematically eliminated, the Lions still have a fighting chance to make the post-season. While Detroit needs tons of help, it is still necessary to win their remaining two games. Wide receiver Victor Cruz and running back Peyton Hillis have been ruled out for Sunday for injury related reasons. Offensive lineman David Diehl and wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan are questionable for Sunday. The 30th ranked scoring offense will definitely struggle scoring more than their averaged 17.9 points. The Giants play the fourth ranked rushing defense allowing an average of 98.6 yards per game. The Lions actually have something to play for and will likely show up Sunday at home.
The Giants are 9-point underdogs on the road against the Lions. The total is 49.
Chris Clemons, DE, Seattle Seahawks (Probable, elbow)
Seattle plays the top-ranked rushing defense in the Cardinals who are allowing an average of 83.2 yards per game. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in sacks with 41.0 and are ranked fifth overall with 19 interceptions. With wide receiver Percy Harvin still questionable and running back Robert Turbin questionable, the Seahawks might not put up as many points as some expect. The Cardinals saw wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and quarterback Carson Palmer returning to practice Thursday and are now listed as questionable for Sunday. With these two key players returning, the Cardinals will attempt to make the post-season and improve on their 9-5 record. The Cards may be more competitive than they are given credit for.
The Cardinals are 10.5-point underdogs on the road against Seattle, with the total 43.0.
Aaron Williams, S, Buffalo Bills (Out, ribs)
The Bills host the 8-6 Dolphins who are competing for the sixth seed in the AFC. The Bills will be without wide receiver Steve Johnson (personal reasons) and hope to have Fred Jackson healthy (probable) after nursing a rib injury. The Bills will attempt to put up points without quarterback EJ Manuel. All season, the Bills have struggled only completing 34 percent of their third-down passes ranking them fourth-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side with Aaron Williams out, the Bills will likely continue to give up big yardage plays - something they have struggled with all year. The Bills have given up 13 passes of 40 or more yards and give up the most rushes of 20 or more yards.
The Bills are 2.5-point home favorite against Miami. The total is 42.5.
Maurice Jones Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Questionable, hamstring)
While the word "playoffs" and "Jaguars" never go in the same sentence, the Jaguars did put up four wins this season which is better than most predicted. The Jags are running out of healthy offensive players with running back Maurice Jones-Drew questionable, tight end Marcedes Lewis questionable, WR Cecil Shorts on IR, guard Will Rackley on IR and their backup guard Austin Pasztor also questionable Sunday. The Jaguars are ranked dead-last in the league in points scored (15.8) and are 30th or worse in total yards and rushing yards. The Jaguars have only completed 32 percent of their third-down conversion attempts. The Titans travel to Jacksonville looking for their first division win of the year and revenge over their 29-27 loss to the Jaguars earlier in 2013.
The Titans are 5-point favorites on the road against Jacksonville. The total is 44.
By MONIQUE VÁG
When marquee players go down with injuries, oddsmakers notice and value is lost for bettors. The key is to find lesser-known players that could have an impact on the scoreboard. Here are four NFL injuries not to undervalue in Week 16:
Peyton Hillis, RB, New York Giants (Out, concussion)
While the Giants have been mathematically eliminated, the Lions still have a fighting chance to make the post-season. While Detroit needs tons of help, it is still necessary to win their remaining two games. Wide receiver Victor Cruz and running back Peyton Hillis have been ruled out for Sunday for injury related reasons. Offensive lineman David Diehl and wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan are questionable for Sunday. The 30th ranked scoring offense will definitely struggle scoring more than their averaged 17.9 points. The Giants play the fourth ranked rushing defense allowing an average of 98.6 yards per game. The Lions actually have something to play for and will likely show up Sunday at home.
The Giants are 9-point underdogs on the road against the Lions. The total is 49.
Chris Clemons, DE, Seattle Seahawks (Probable, elbow)
Seattle plays the top-ranked rushing defense in the Cardinals who are allowing an average of 83.2 yards per game. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in sacks with 41.0 and are ranked fifth overall with 19 interceptions. With wide receiver Percy Harvin still questionable and running back Robert Turbin questionable, the Seahawks might not put up as many points as some expect. The Cardinals saw wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and quarterback Carson Palmer returning to practice Thursday and are now listed as questionable for Sunday. With these two key players returning, the Cardinals will attempt to make the post-season and improve on their 9-5 record. The Cards may be more competitive than they are given credit for.
The Cardinals are 10.5-point underdogs on the road against Seattle, with the total 43.0.
Aaron Williams, S, Buffalo Bills (Out, ribs)
The Bills host the 8-6 Dolphins who are competing for the sixth seed in the AFC. The Bills will be without wide receiver Steve Johnson (personal reasons) and hope to have Fred Jackson healthy (probable) after nursing a rib injury. The Bills will attempt to put up points without quarterback EJ Manuel. All season, the Bills have struggled only completing 34 percent of their third-down passes ranking them fourth-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side with Aaron Williams out, the Bills will likely continue to give up big yardage plays - something they have struggled with all year. The Bills have given up 13 passes of 40 or more yards and give up the most rushes of 20 or more yards.
The Bills are 2.5-point home favorite against Miami. The total is 42.5.
Maurice Jones Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Questionable, hamstring)
While the word "playoffs" and "Jaguars" never go in the same sentence, the Jaguars did put up four wins this season which is better than most predicted. The Jags are running out of healthy offensive players with running back Maurice Jones-Drew questionable, tight end Marcedes Lewis questionable, WR Cecil Shorts on IR, guard Will Rackley on IR and their backup guard Austin Pasztor also questionable Sunday. The Jaguars are ranked dead-last in the league in points scored (15.8) and are 30th or worse in total yards and rushing yards. The Jaguars have only completed 32 percent of their third-down conversion attempts. The Titans travel to Jacksonville looking for their first division win of the year and revenge over their 29-27 loss to the Jaguars earlier in 2013.
The Titans are 5-point favorites on the road against Jacksonville. The total is 44.
Essential betting tidbits for Week 16 of NFL football
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- Cleveland WR Josh Gordon has 841 receiving yards and six touchdowns over his previous five games.
- Jets rookie QB Geno Smith has thrown at least one interception in 12 of 14 games this season, and has posted single digit QBR totals six times.
- Kansas City is the first team in league history to score multiple touchdowns via interception (five), kickoff return (two), punt return (two) and fumble return (two) in the same season.
- The Indianapolis Colts are surrendering the fifth-highest average rushing yardage per game (128.9). Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles averages 156.5 yards in two career games against the Colts.
- The Bengals, in the hunt for home-field advantage in the playoffs, are 6-0 in Cincinnati this season while outscoring opponents 199-103 in those games.
- Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, ranked second in the NFL with 1,221 rushing yards, is expected to play Sunday after missing last week's game with a foot injury.
- Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning gets a reprieve from the cold in Houston this week after playing his previous four games in chilly weather. Manning has thrown for 3,561 yards with 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 10 games where the temperature at kickoff was above 41 degrees Fahrenheit.
- The Broncos (-10) are the top Covers consensus ATS pick against Houston (78.5 percent).
- Playing for injured RB Maurice Jones-Drew last week, Jordan Todman rumbled for 109 yards and added four catches for 44 yards in a loss to Buffalo. Todman may start again this week with Jones-Drew questionable.
- Tennessee has lost all four of its divisional games so far in 2013, though none of the defeats came by more than eight points.
- Expect a low-scoring game in Buffalo, where the Bills host a Miami Dolphins squad that has played the "under" in eight of its last nine encounters with AFC East opponents.
- Buffalo comes into Sunday's game needing one sack to equal the unofficial franchise record of 50 set by the 1964 edition. It's a good bet to happen against a Dolphins team that has allowed the most sacks in the NFL (51).
- The Carolina Panthers had no answer for the New Orleans Saints in their last encounter, allowing quarterback Drew Brees to rack up 313 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-13 victory.
- The Panthers are tied for second in the NFC in turnover differential (plus-11), and are the only team in the NFL to rank in the top five in both passing yards allowed (211.4 per game) and rushing yards against (84.9).
- Washington QB Kirk Cousins makes his third career NFL start against a Cowboys secondary allowing the most passing yards in the league (4,163).
- Dallas has won all four of its divisional games, including a 31-16 home triumph over the Redskins in Week 6.
- The St. Louis Rams are the lone NFC West lightweight when it comes to ATS play, going 6-8 so far. The Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are all 10-4 ATS through the first 14 weeks.
- The Tampa Bay defense has shown a proficiency when it comes to buckling down after a rough loss, with the "under" going 5-0 in the Buccaneers' last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Tampa Bay fell 33-14 to visiting San Francisco last week.
- The Seahawks have been nearly invincible at home this season, winning all six games by an average of 18.7 points. Their 14-game home winning streak is the longest in franchise history.
- Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald (concussion) is expected to play Sunday after practicing throughout the week. Fitzgerald was nullified in the last meeting between the teams, finishing with two catches for 17 yards in a 34-22 loss.
- Lions QB Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily over his last two games, throwing for just 386 combined yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Stafford has never faced the Giants.
- New York is 5-9-0 ATS on the season, tied with Atlanta for the third-worst mark in the NFC. Only Washington (4-10-0) and Chicago (4-9-1) have been worse.
- Oakland's improving offense and deteriorating defense have made the "over" a strong play since the midway point of the season, going 6-0-1 in the Raiders' last seven games. The over/under for Sunday's game in San Diego is 50 1/2.
- Philip Rivers had his way with the Raiders' pass defence in their previous encounter - erupting for 411 yards and a pair of scores - but also had three interceptions in the 27-17 Oakland victory.
- The Steelers have been one of the hottest ATS plays since early-November, going 5-1-0 over that stretch. Pittsburgh is a 2 1/2-point underdog at Green Bay despite the Packers being without QB Aaron Rodgers (collarbone).
- Green Bay has struggled ATS, going 1-6-0 in its last seven contests. That includes an 0-4 stretch ATS in its previous four home games.
- Patriots QB Tom Brady has put a difficult start to the season behind him, averaging better than 370 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions over his last six games.
- The Ravens are last in the NFL at just three yards per rush attempt and have scored only six touchdowns on the ground. The Patriots are surrendering 4.4 yards per carry, the eighth-highest mark in the league.
- The Philadelphia pass defense is 31st in yards allowed, while the Bears' Brandon Marshall and Alston Jeffery are the most prolific receiving duo in the league with a total of 2,450 yards.
- Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week, and has 23 touchdown passes against just two interceptions.
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- Cleveland WR Josh Gordon has 841 receiving yards and six touchdowns over his previous five games.
- Jets rookie QB Geno Smith has thrown at least one interception in 12 of 14 games this season, and has posted single digit QBR totals six times.
- Kansas City is the first team in league history to score multiple touchdowns via interception (five), kickoff return (two), punt return (two) and fumble return (two) in the same season.
- The Indianapolis Colts are surrendering the fifth-highest average rushing yardage per game (128.9). Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles averages 156.5 yards in two career games against the Colts.
- The Bengals, in the hunt for home-field advantage in the playoffs, are 6-0 in Cincinnati this season while outscoring opponents 199-103 in those games.
- Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, ranked second in the NFL with 1,221 rushing yards, is expected to play Sunday after missing last week's game with a foot injury.
- Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning gets a reprieve from the cold in Houston this week after playing his previous four games in chilly weather. Manning has thrown for 3,561 yards with 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 10 games where the temperature at kickoff was above 41 degrees Fahrenheit.
- The Broncos (-10) are the top Covers consensus ATS pick against Houston (78.5 percent).
- Playing for injured RB Maurice Jones-Drew last week, Jordan Todman rumbled for 109 yards and added four catches for 44 yards in a loss to Buffalo. Todman may start again this week with Jones-Drew questionable.
- Tennessee has lost all four of its divisional games so far in 2013, though none of the defeats came by more than eight points.
- Expect a low-scoring game in Buffalo, where the Bills host a Miami Dolphins squad that has played the "under" in eight of its last nine encounters with AFC East opponents.
- Buffalo comes into Sunday's game needing one sack to equal the unofficial franchise record of 50 set by the 1964 edition. It's a good bet to happen against a Dolphins team that has allowed the most sacks in the NFL (51).
- The Carolina Panthers had no answer for the New Orleans Saints in their last encounter, allowing quarterback Drew Brees to rack up 313 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-13 victory.
- The Panthers are tied for second in the NFC in turnover differential (plus-11), and are the only team in the NFL to rank in the top five in both passing yards allowed (211.4 per game) and rushing yards against (84.9).
- Washington QB Kirk Cousins makes his third career NFL start against a Cowboys secondary allowing the most passing yards in the league (4,163).
- Dallas has won all four of its divisional games, including a 31-16 home triumph over the Redskins in Week 6.
- The St. Louis Rams are the lone NFC West lightweight when it comes to ATS play, going 6-8 so far. The Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are all 10-4 ATS through the first 14 weeks.
- The Tampa Bay defense has shown a proficiency when it comes to buckling down after a rough loss, with the "under" going 5-0 in the Buccaneers' last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Tampa Bay fell 33-14 to visiting San Francisco last week.
- The Seahawks have been nearly invincible at home this season, winning all six games by an average of 18.7 points. Their 14-game home winning streak is the longest in franchise history.
- Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald (concussion) is expected to play Sunday after practicing throughout the week. Fitzgerald was nullified in the last meeting between the teams, finishing with two catches for 17 yards in a 34-22 loss.
- Lions QB Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily over his last two games, throwing for just 386 combined yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Stafford has never faced the Giants.
- New York is 5-9-0 ATS on the season, tied with Atlanta for the third-worst mark in the NFC. Only Washington (4-10-0) and Chicago (4-9-1) have been worse.
- Oakland's improving offense and deteriorating defense have made the "over" a strong play since the midway point of the season, going 6-0-1 in the Raiders' last seven games. The over/under for Sunday's game in San Diego is 50 1/2.
- Philip Rivers had his way with the Raiders' pass defence in their previous encounter - erupting for 411 yards and a pair of scores - but also had three interceptions in the 27-17 Oakland victory.
- The Steelers have been one of the hottest ATS plays since early-November, going 5-1-0 over that stretch. Pittsburgh is a 2 1/2-point underdog at Green Bay despite the Packers being without QB Aaron Rodgers (collarbone).
- Green Bay has struggled ATS, going 1-6-0 in its last seven contests. That includes an 0-4 stretch ATS in its previous four home games.
- Patriots QB Tom Brady has put a difficult start to the season behind him, averaging better than 370 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions over his last six games.
- The Ravens are last in the NFL at just three yards per rush attempt and have scored only six touchdowns on the ground. The Patriots are surrendering 4.4 yards per carry, the eighth-highest mark in the league.
- The Philadelphia pass defense is 31st in yards allowed, while the Bears' Brandon Marshall and Alston Jeffery are the most prolific receiving duo in the league with a total of 2,450 yards.
- Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week, and has 23 touchdown passes against just two interceptions.
NFL Week 16 betting road map: Three pitfalls to avoid Sunday
By CHASE RUTTIG
The final weeks of the NFL season are some of the hardest to handicap. From bad weather, tanking teams, possible spoilers, and franchises fighting for the playoffs, there are plenty of traps along the way for bettors in late December. However if you can find the right angle, there is more than enough value to go around.
Here’s a NFL Week 16 road map, plotting a course through those pitfalls Sunday.
Tanking team
Jacksonville is in the midst of a race with the St. Louis Rams (who have Washington's pick) and the Oakland Raiders for a Top-3 pick in the NFL draft. With both the Raiders and the Jaguars sitting at 4-10, both teams can't really afford to win another game, especially Jacksonville.
The team has problems filling the stadium thanks to a string of losing seasons in the small Florida market and desperately needs a franchise player to draw crowds. The Jaguars are 5-point home underdogs hosting Tennessee Sunday.
Playing for coach
The Raiders might be a prime tanking candidate if not for the recent rumors that respected head coach Dennis Allen is on the hot seat. With the Raiders 4-2-1 ATS away from the Oakland Coliseum and already posting an upset win over the Chargers early in the season, Oakland’s added motivation could make this a close game with their California rivals.
It’s a good value spot for the Raiders when you throw in the travelling army of Silver and Black fans that invade San Diego and rookie QB Matt McGloin trying to earn a chance in 2014 against a soft Chargers secondary.
Spoiler alert
Buffalo will be looking to upset the Miami Dolphins in a big way at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday. The Bills can't really tank at 5-9 and are a stellar 5-1 ATS in the friendly confines of upstate New York this season.
The Bills pass rush, led by Mario Williams, should give a Dolphins team, well noted for its offensive line issues, serious troubles. Miami has been playing well and has worked its way into the playoff picture after upsetting the Patriots at home. But Buffalo is a very good home team that matches up well with the Fins.
By CHASE RUTTIG
The final weeks of the NFL season are some of the hardest to handicap. From bad weather, tanking teams, possible spoilers, and franchises fighting for the playoffs, there are plenty of traps along the way for bettors in late December. However if you can find the right angle, there is more than enough value to go around.
Here’s a NFL Week 16 road map, plotting a course through those pitfalls Sunday.
Tanking team
Jacksonville is in the midst of a race with the St. Louis Rams (who have Washington's pick) and the Oakland Raiders for a Top-3 pick in the NFL draft. With both the Raiders and the Jaguars sitting at 4-10, both teams can't really afford to win another game, especially Jacksonville.
The team has problems filling the stadium thanks to a string of losing seasons in the small Florida market and desperately needs a franchise player to draw crowds. The Jaguars are 5-point home underdogs hosting Tennessee Sunday.
Playing for coach
The Raiders might be a prime tanking candidate if not for the recent rumors that respected head coach Dennis Allen is on the hot seat. With the Raiders 4-2-1 ATS away from the Oakland Coliseum and already posting an upset win over the Chargers early in the season, Oakland’s added motivation could make this a close game with their California rivals.
It’s a good value spot for the Raiders when you throw in the travelling army of Silver and Black fans that invade San Diego and rookie QB Matt McGloin trying to earn a chance in 2014 against a soft Chargers secondary.
Spoiler alert
Buffalo will be looking to upset the Miami Dolphins in a big way at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday. The Bills can't really tank at 5-9 and are a stellar 5-1 ATS in the friendly confines of upstate New York this season.
The Bills pass rush, led by Mario Williams, should give a Dolphins team, well noted for its offensive line issues, serious troubles. Miami has been playing well and has worked its way into the playoff picture after upsetting the Patriots at home. But Buffalo is a very good home team that matches up well with the Fins.
Monday
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: What bettors need to know
East Carolina Pirates vs. Ohio Bobcats (+14, 62)
BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL STORYLINES:
1. Two experienced, productive quarterbacks bring high-octane offenses to the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. on Monday, Dec. 23. Junior Shane Carden threw 55 touchdown passes – 19 to standout junior receiver Justin Hardy -- in the last two seasons for East Carolina, which averaged 40.4 points this season. Ohio senior Tyler Tettleton recorded 66 scoring strikes in three years at the helm and the Bobcats scored 38 or more five times in the last nine games.
2. One key will be which team can get to the quarterback and disrupt the passing game. The Pirates have registered 35 sacks, tied for 14th in the nation, and allowed 28 while Ohio boasts 34 sacks and has given up 16.
3. East Carolina is looking to snap a four-game losing streak in bowls while trying to improve an 8-10 overall record. Ohio plays in its fifth straight bowl and has won the last two, including 45-14 over Louisiana-Monroe at the Independence Bowl in 2012.
TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: East Carolina opened -12.5 and is now -14. The total opened 61.5 and is up to 62.
WEATHER: N/A
ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (9-3, 6-2 Conference-USA): Hardy averaged 8.8 receptions – fifth in the nation -- for 1,218 yards and eight scores and is only 19 receiving yards shy of 3,000 in his career. If Ohio decides to devote extra attention to Hardy, receiver Isaiah Jones (54 receptions, 556 yards) or running back Vintavious Cooper (995 rushing yards, 11 TDs) can hurt the Bobcats. East Carolina, which owns victories over North Carolina and North Carolina State, is led on defense by senior LB Derrell Johnson (7.5 sacks).
ABOUT OHIO (7-5, 4-4 Mid-American): The Bobcats snapped a three-game losing streak by totaling 461 yards in a 51-23 home victory over Massachusetts in the regular-season finale. Tettleton has completed 33-of-48 passes for 551 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in his two bowl outings, and he'll look often for Donte Foster, who has 63 catches and 858 yards this season. Beau Blankenship, who ran for four touchdowns and 104 yards in last year’s bowl game, totaled 844 yards this season – 124 versus UMass – and owns 24 career rushing TDs.
TRENDS:
* Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. loss.
* Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. CUSA.
* Over is 4-1 in Pirates last five Bowl games.
* Under is 6-1-1 in Bobcats last eight neutral site games.
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: What bettors need to know
East Carolina Pirates vs. Ohio Bobcats (+14, 62)
BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL STORYLINES:
1. Two experienced, productive quarterbacks bring high-octane offenses to the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. on Monday, Dec. 23. Junior Shane Carden threw 55 touchdown passes – 19 to standout junior receiver Justin Hardy -- in the last two seasons for East Carolina, which averaged 40.4 points this season. Ohio senior Tyler Tettleton recorded 66 scoring strikes in three years at the helm and the Bobcats scored 38 or more five times in the last nine games.
2. One key will be which team can get to the quarterback and disrupt the passing game. The Pirates have registered 35 sacks, tied for 14th in the nation, and allowed 28 while Ohio boasts 34 sacks and has given up 16.
3. East Carolina is looking to snap a four-game losing streak in bowls while trying to improve an 8-10 overall record. Ohio plays in its fifth straight bowl and has won the last two, including 45-14 over Louisiana-Monroe at the Independence Bowl in 2012.
TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: East Carolina opened -12.5 and is now -14. The total opened 61.5 and is up to 62.
WEATHER: N/A
ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (9-3, 6-2 Conference-USA): Hardy averaged 8.8 receptions – fifth in the nation -- for 1,218 yards and eight scores and is only 19 receiving yards shy of 3,000 in his career. If Ohio decides to devote extra attention to Hardy, receiver Isaiah Jones (54 receptions, 556 yards) or running back Vintavious Cooper (995 rushing yards, 11 TDs) can hurt the Bobcats. East Carolina, which owns victories over North Carolina and North Carolina State, is led on defense by senior LB Derrell Johnson (7.5 sacks).
ABOUT OHIO (7-5, 4-4 Mid-American): The Bobcats snapped a three-game losing streak by totaling 461 yards in a 51-23 home victory over Massachusetts in the regular-season finale. Tettleton has completed 33-of-48 passes for 551 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in his two bowl outings, and he'll look often for Donte Foster, who has 63 catches and 858 yards this season. Beau Blankenship, who ran for four touchdowns and 104 yards in last year’s bowl game, totaled 844 yards this season – 124 versus UMass – and owns 24 career rushing TDs.
TRENDS:
* Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. loss.
* Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. CUSA.
* Over is 4-1 in Pirates last five Bowl games.
* Under is 6-1-1 in Bobcats last eight neutral site games.
English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet
Four intriguing clubs take the pitch in Premier League action Sunday. Tottenham Hotspur will play its first league match after the dismissal of manager Andre Villas-Boas following an humiliating 5-0 loss at home to Liverpool one week ago. Meanwhile, Everton will look to extend a nine match unbeaten streak in the league.
Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur (+150, +240, +200)
Why bet Southampton: The Saints have been sinking like a stone following a sparkling start to the campaign. They sit ninth - three points behind Sunday's opponent - and have left a rotten three-match losing skid behind them as they've mustered a pair of draws in their last two efforts. Both of those draws were in tough fixtures - home to Manchester City and away to Newcastle. The Saints will be licking their chops to get a piece of a Tottenham Hotspur side that has had a very rough week. Spurs are riddled with injuries and were knocked out of the League Cup by West Ham midweek.
Key players out/doubtful: Artur Boruc, Victor Wanyama, Guly
Why bet Tottenham Hotspur: The sacking of AVB means that the hunt for a new manager is on in North London. For the time being, however, U-21 boss Tim Sherwood takes over. Sherwood sent out a 4-4-2 formation in the Cup loss to West Ham earlier this week and for a good portion of the game, Spurs looked motivated going forward. A new boss means new tactics and it can usually spark a struggling club. Spurs are a much better side away from White Hart Lane with 16 points from eight matches to show for their efforts on the road.
Key players out/doubtful: Paulinho, Andros Townsend, Sandro, Jan Vertonghen, Younes Kaboul
2012-13 fixture result: Southampton 1, Tottenham 2
Key betting note: Spurs have won their last two Premier League matches away from home.
Swansea v Everton (+200, +240, +150)
Why bet Swansea: Things are getting much better for the Welsh outfit which lost four of its opening seven matches to the season. The Swans have just one loss in their previous six Premier League games. A 3-0 thumping of a very good Newcastle side highlights a decent run of form for the club. They haven't been very good at home, however, and sit 14th in the table in home form with just 10 points from eight matches. A lot was expected from Swansea this season, with manager Michael Laudrup a hot commodity in the managerial ranks. A home victory over Everton will do wonders for this side heading into the busy holiday footy season. News is not good, however, as star player Michu could face up to three months out with an ankle injury.
Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Angel Rangel, Nathan Dyer, Leon Britton
Why bet Everton: The Toffees are still hanging with the big boys in the League and sit fifth in the table on 31 points. They've lost just once in the league, which is the lowest of any club. Manager Roberto Martinez proved at Wigan he was a star-manager in the making and he has fulfilled that promise this season. Star striker Romelu Lukaku is as feared as any in the league and is a handful for any defense. Star LB Leighton Baines could return to the starting XI, but if not, Bryan Oviedo has filled in admirably and the Toffees have not missed a beat.
Key players out/doubtful: Gerard Deulofeu, Arouna Koné, Darron Gibson
2012-13 fixture result: Swansea 0, Everton 3
Key betting note: Swansea hasn't scored in any of its four Premier League clashes with Everton.
Four intriguing clubs take the pitch in Premier League action Sunday. Tottenham Hotspur will play its first league match after the dismissal of manager Andre Villas-Boas following an humiliating 5-0 loss at home to Liverpool one week ago. Meanwhile, Everton will look to extend a nine match unbeaten streak in the league.
Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur (+150, +240, +200)
Why bet Southampton: The Saints have been sinking like a stone following a sparkling start to the campaign. They sit ninth - three points behind Sunday's opponent - and have left a rotten three-match losing skid behind them as they've mustered a pair of draws in their last two efforts. Both of those draws were in tough fixtures - home to Manchester City and away to Newcastle. The Saints will be licking their chops to get a piece of a Tottenham Hotspur side that has had a very rough week. Spurs are riddled with injuries and were knocked out of the League Cup by West Ham midweek.
Key players out/doubtful: Artur Boruc, Victor Wanyama, Guly
Why bet Tottenham Hotspur: The sacking of AVB means that the hunt for a new manager is on in North London. For the time being, however, U-21 boss Tim Sherwood takes over. Sherwood sent out a 4-4-2 formation in the Cup loss to West Ham earlier this week and for a good portion of the game, Spurs looked motivated going forward. A new boss means new tactics and it can usually spark a struggling club. Spurs are a much better side away from White Hart Lane with 16 points from eight matches to show for their efforts on the road.
Key players out/doubtful: Paulinho, Andros Townsend, Sandro, Jan Vertonghen, Younes Kaboul
2012-13 fixture result: Southampton 1, Tottenham 2
Key betting note: Spurs have won their last two Premier League matches away from home.
Swansea v Everton (+200, +240, +150)
Why bet Swansea: Things are getting much better for the Welsh outfit which lost four of its opening seven matches to the season. The Swans have just one loss in their previous six Premier League games. A 3-0 thumping of a very good Newcastle side highlights a decent run of form for the club. They haven't been very good at home, however, and sit 14th in the table in home form with just 10 points from eight matches. A lot was expected from Swansea this season, with manager Michael Laudrup a hot commodity in the managerial ranks. A home victory over Everton will do wonders for this side heading into the busy holiday footy season. News is not good, however, as star player Michu could face up to three months out with an ankle injury.
Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Angel Rangel, Nathan Dyer, Leon Britton
Why bet Everton: The Toffees are still hanging with the big boys in the League and sit fifth in the table on 31 points. They've lost just once in the league, which is the lowest of any club. Manager Roberto Martinez proved at Wigan he was a star-manager in the making and he has fulfilled that promise this season. Star striker Romelu Lukaku is as feared as any in the league and is a handful for any defense. Star LB Leighton Baines could return to the starting XI, but if not, Bryan Oviedo has filled in admirably and the Toffees have not missed a beat.
Key players out/doubtful: Gerard Deulofeu, Arouna Koné, Darron Gibson
2012-13 fixture result: Swansea 0, Everton 3
Key betting note: Swansea hasn't scored in any of its four Premier League clashes with Everton.
