jeff benton
SUNDAY'S NFL ACTION
60 Dime NFL release on the SAINTS plus the points at Baltimore. New Orleans is raaging from a 2- to 2½-point road underdog both here in Vegas and offshore. Very surprising to see this number climb on Saturday night from 1½ to a solid 2 and in some spots 2½, as I thoueght the late money would come in on New Orleans (a very public team). That still might happen, so monitor this line closely and if you start to see a shift back down toward 1 ½, jump on the Saints imdediately and grab the +2 ½ or – worst – +2.
SAINTS
Don’t look now, but the defending champs have won six in a row overall (4-2 ATS) and four in a row on the highway. And Drew Brees has the New Orleans offense in high gear, putting up 34, 34, 30, 34 and 31 points the last five weeks and 30-plus points during their four-game road winning streak.
Now you would think the Saints would be hard-pressed to continue those point-scoring binge streaks today at Baltimore, facing the Ravens’ defense. Except for the fact that defense is a fraud, particularly in the secondary. Baltimore is giving up more than 220 passing yards per game, and over the last three games the Ravens’ have been torched for 258 passing ypg.
And when you look at the Ravens’ four losses, you see the following starting quarterbacks that beat them: Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. Obviously, Palmer is the QB who stands out – he’s been horrific this year, and in actuality it was Ravens QB Joe Flacco who cost the Ravens in that 15-10 loss back in Week 2. But the other three quarterbacks? All of them are studs, with Brady and Roethlisberger possessing a combined five Super Bowl rings and Ryan piloting the team with the best record in the AFC.
Two other QBs – Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick (29-for-43, 382 passing yards, 4TDs and 34 points) and Houston’s Matt Schaub (31-for-62, 393 yards, 3 TDs and 28 points last week) also lit up the Ravens’ defense. Even though Baltimore escaped with overtime wins in both of those games, if you add them to the Ravens’ four losses, you get an average of 23.2 points per game allowed. In their other seven contests (all wins), Baltimore surrendered just 14.7 ppg and only nine total touchdowns.
Now look at the list of quarterbacks from those seven games: Mark Sanchez, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Batch, Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Brian St. Pierre and Josh Freeman.
See a trend there?
So why has Baltimore struggled so much against quality quarterbacks? The main reason two raw, inexperienced cornerbacks. But the dirty little secret is Ray Lewis and the pass rush has been virtually nonexistent. The Ravens have just 24 sacks (only seven teams have fewer, and four of those seven have either 22 or 23 sacks, meaning Baltimore is very close to ranking near the bottom of the league in that category. In their four losses to the Bengals, Patriots, Falcons and Steelers, Baltimore recorded only nine sacks.
How does all this relate to today’s game against New Orleans? Well, Drew Brees has been dropped 18 times in 13 games, including just five times in the last five weeks. And while Brees has been uncharacteristically careless with the football this season (tied for the NFL lead with 18 INTs), the Ravens – despite the pick-six in overtime last week that beat Houston – has just 13 interceptions this season.
Bottom line: At this time of year, I like to back teams with momentum, and the Saints with six straight wins clearly have it. Conversely, the Ravens are just 5-3 SU and 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games. That includes the two overtime wins over the Texans and Bills (which obviously could’ve gone either way). The other victories were against overmatched opponents Tampa Bay, Carolina and Miami. In fact, the Ravens’ last six victories have come against teams with losing records. Their last three games against winning teams? All losses to the Patriots, Falcons and Steelers (who are a combined 31-8).
Brees and the Saints offense continue to exploit Baltimore’s secondary, and the underrated New Orleans defense (19 points or less allowed in seven games) contains the Ravens’ suddenly one-dimensional offense (66 rushing ypg last three weeks) and the defending champs roll to a 31-21 win.
SUNDAY'S NFL ACTION
60 Dime NFL release on the SAINTS plus the points at Baltimore. New Orleans is raaging from a 2- to 2½-point road underdog both here in Vegas and offshore. Very surprising to see this number climb on Saturday night from 1½ to a solid 2 and in some spots 2½, as I thoueght the late money would come in on New Orleans (a very public team). That still might happen, so monitor this line closely and if you start to see a shift back down toward 1 ½, jump on the Saints imdediately and grab the +2 ½ or – worst – +2.
SAINTS
Don’t look now, but the defending champs have won six in a row overall (4-2 ATS) and four in a row on the highway. And Drew Brees has the New Orleans offense in high gear, putting up 34, 34, 30, 34 and 31 points the last five weeks and 30-plus points during their four-game road winning streak.
Now you would think the Saints would be hard-pressed to continue those point-scoring binge streaks today at Baltimore, facing the Ravens’ defense. Except for the fact that defense is a fraud, particularly in the secondary. Baltimore is giving up more than 220 passing yards per game, and over the last three games the Ravens’ have been torched for 258 passing ypg.
And when you look at the Ravens’ four losses, you see the following starting quarterbacks that beat them: Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. Obviously, Palmer is the QB who stands out – he’s been horrific this year, and in actuality it was Ravens QB Joe Flacco who cost the Ravens in that 15-10 loss back in Week 2. But the other three quarterbacks? All of them are studs, with Brady and Roethlisberger possessing a combined five Super Bowl rings and Ryan piloting the team with the best record in the AFC.
Two other QBs – Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick (29-for-43, 382 passing yards, 4TDs and 34 points) and Houston’s Matt Schaub (31-for-62, 393 yards, 3 TDs and 28 points last week) also lit up the Ravens’ defense. Even though Baltimore escaped with overtime wins in both of those games, if you add them to the Ravens’ four losses, you get an average of 23.2 points per game allowed. In their other seven contests (all wins), Baltimore surrendered just 14.7 ppg and only nine total touchdowns.
Now look at the list of quarterbacks from those seven games: Mark Sanchez, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Batch, Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Brian St. Pierre and Josh Freeman.
See a trend there?
So why has Baltimore struggled so much against quality quarterbacks? The main reason two raw, inexperienced cornerbacks. But the dirty little secret is Ray Lewis and the pass rush has been virtually nonexistent. The Ravens have just 24 sacks (only seven teams have fewer, and four of those seven have either 22 or 23 sacks, meaning Baltimore is very close to ranking near the bottom of the league in that category. In their four losses to the Bengals, Patriots, Falcons and Steelers, Baltimore recorded only nine sacks.
How does all this relate to today’s game against New Orleans? Well, Drew Brees has been dropped 18 times in 13 games, including just five times in the last five weeks. And while Brees has been uncharacteristically careless with the football this season (tied for the NFL lead with 18 INTs), the Ravens – despite the pick-six in overtime last week that beat Houston – has just 13 interceptions this season.
Bottom line: At this time of year, I like to back teams with momentum, and the Saints with six straight wins clearly have it. Conversely, the Ravens are just 5-3 SU and 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games. That includes the two overtime wins over the Texans and Bills (which obviously could’ve gone either way). The other victories were against overmatched opponents Tampa Bay, Carolina and Miami. In fact, the Ravens’ last six victories have come against teams with losing records. Their last three games against winning teams? All losses to the Patriots, Falcons and Steelers (who are a combined 31-8).
Brees and the Saints offense continue to exploit Baltimore’s secondary, and the underrated New Orleans defense (19 points or less allowed in seven games) contains the Ravens’ suddenly one-dimensional offense (66 rushing ypg last three weeks) and the defending champs roll to a 31-21 win.
GOLDEN CONTENDER/Rob Vinciletti
7* Kansas City Chiefs +3
The Chiefs are coming off one of the poorest offensive performances in recent times. They totaled just 67 yards in a 31-0 loss at San Diego last week. That loss sets them up in a bevy of systems. The Best of which is 100% and wins by over 10 points per game. What we want to do is play on road teams if the line is +3 to -3 and they were road dogs of 7 or more with a total of 40.5 or more and they had less than 100 yards rushing and less than 150 yards passing. KC had B. Croyle making the start last week in a crucial divisional game. This hand cuffed the Chiefs from the start. Now they know they have to win. The Good news is the probable return of starting Qb Cassel. A secondary system that dates to 1980 plays on small road favorites off a 24 pr more point road loss. The Rams are off a blowout loss to the Saints. They have not been good against teams with a winning record. They are 3-16 straight up, including 0-9 the last 3 years. They are 1-6 as a home dog of 3 or less and 1-10 at home when the total is 42.5 to 45. KC is 3-1 vs winning teams this year and 18-5 vs NFC West teams. The Chiefs are 8-1 ats vs non divisional teams on the road off a loss of 10 or more and the Rams are 2-7 ats home off a loss of 10 or more vs an opponent off a loss and failed cover. Look for the Chiefs to win this one here today as the NFC West continues to be a mess and the AFC West heats up. Take the KC Chiefs +3
7* Kansas City Chiefs +3
The Chiefs are coming off one of the poorest offensive performances in recent times. They totaled just 67 yards in a 31-0 loss at San Diego last week. That loss sets them up in a bevy of systems. The Best of which is 100% and wins by over 10 points per game. What we want to do is play on road teams if the line is +3 to -3 and they were road dogs of 7 or more with a total of 40.5 or more and they had less than 100 yards rushing and less than 150 yards passing. KC had B. Croyle making the start last week in a crucial divisional game. This hand cuffed the Chiefs from the start. Now they know they have to win. The Good news is the probable return of starting Qb Cassel. A secondary system that dates to 1980 plays on small road favorites off a 24 pr more point road loss. The Rams are off a blowout loss to the Saints. They have not been good against teams with a winning record. They are 3-16 straight up, including 0-9 the last 3 years. They are 1-6 as a home dog of 3 or less and 1-10 at home when the total is 42.5 to 45. KC is 3-1 vs winning teams this year and 18-5 vs NFC West teams. The Chiefs are 8-1 ats vs non divisional teams on the road off a loss of 10 or more and the Rams are 2-7 ats home off a loss of 10 or more vs an opponent off a loss and failed cover. Look for the Chiefs to win this one here today as the NFC West continues to be a mess and the AFC West heats up. Take the KC Chiefs +3
