DAVID MALINSKY
4* BOSTON / INDIANA UNDER 192.5
This Total came much higher than we expected, one of those prototype settings in which the markets Zig when they should Zag. In this case we are dealing with some rather extreme Boston pendulums, and that makes for excellent timing.
The Celtics have played back-to-back over’s, but there is no issue of the pace changing – in each of those games both they and their opponents shot 50 percent or better, a true extreme. Even off of allowing 51.7 percent in those last two games the Boston defense is #2 on our best set of ratings, and this bounce-back mode on that end has us in the right place at the right time, especially with Shaq returning to add depth up front, and slow things down on both ends of the floor.
Speaking of slowing things down, there is not a stronger pattern anywhere in the league right now than the way that the Pacers are playing in this role on the road. They have played Under the Total in eight of their last eight outings as road underdogs, by a collective 146 points, an average of 18.3 per game below the projections. What was a mediocre defense LY is now one that has moved up to #9 this season, and from a pace standpoint they are down 2.5 possessions per game. This is going to be half-court basketball for both sides, and we do not expect either the pace or offensive efficiency this Total is calling for.
4* BOSTON / INDIANA UNDER 192.5
This Total came much higher than we expected, one of those prototype settings in which the markets Zig when they should Zag. In this case we are dealing with some rather extreme Boston pendulums, and that makes for excellent timing.
The Celtics have played back-to-back over’s, but there is no issue of the pace changing – in each of those games both they and their opponents shot 50 percent or better, a true extreme. Even off of allowing 51.7 percent in those last two games the Boston defense is #2 on our best set of ratings, and this bounce-back mode on that end has us in the right place at the right time, especially with Shaq returning to add depth up front, and slow things down on both ends of the floor.
Speaking of slowing things down, there is not a stronger pattern anywhere in the league right now than the way that the Pacers are playing in this role on the road. They have played Under the Total in eight of their last eight outings as road underdogs, by a collective 146 points, an average of 18.3 per game below the projections. What was a mediocre defense LY is now one that has moved up to #9 this season, and from a pace standpoint they are down 2.5 possessions per game. This is going to be half-court basketball for both sides, and we do not expect either the pace or offensive efficiency this Total is calling for.
THE DUKE SPORTS
Oakland (-7) for 2.5 Units
Denver/Oakland 4:15: The Broncos should continue to struggle offensively without McDaniels calling the plays. Newly appointed OC McCoy doesn't have a firm grasp on play calling and uncertainty remains at QB with Orton banged up and taking limited amount of snaps throughout the week. Tebow should see action but shouldn't be a threat vs an Oakland defense that plays the pass well and will most likely spot blitz repeatedly. The Raiders blasted Denver in the first game and sport a 5-0 ATS mark vs the AFC West. The Broncos haven't responded well off losses and Studesville is left with a team in a building stage of development without an identity on both sides of the ball. The Raiders, however, know who they are and possess a solid run game with McFadden and Bush whose success running helps alleviate the pressure on QB Campbell. The Raiders have responded well off losses with a 7-3 ATS mark and we'll take them here.
Oakland (-7) for 2.5 Units
Denver/Oakland 4:15: The Broncos should continue to struggle offensively without McDaniels calling the plays. Newly appointed OC McCoy doesn't have a firm grasp on play calling and uncertainty remains at QB with Orton banged up and taking limited amount of snaps throughout the week. Tebow should see action but shouldn't be a threat vs an Oakland defense that plays the pass well and will most likely spot blitz repeatedly. The Raiders blasted Denver in the first game and sport a 5-0 ATS mark vs the AFC West. The Broncos haven't responded well off losses and Studesville is left with a team in a building stage of development without an identity on both sides of the ball. The Raiders, however, know who they are and possess a solid run game with McFadden and Bush whose success running helps alleviate the pressure on QB Campbell. The Raiders have responded well off losses with a 7-3 ATS mark and we'll take them here.
Vince Akins
4* Green Bay / New England Over 43
With Matt Flynn at QB for Green Bay, New England will try to take advantage. They always blitz young QBs and what that does is create the opportunity for big plays – for both the offense and defense. Look for New England to get close to this total themselves and for Green Bay to do enough to push it over.
That’s what happened last week in a 36-7 win over Chicago. It was an impressively commanding win as they led by 7 after one quarter and 33 at half. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (8.4 ppg) since January 07, 2007 at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road (team=Patriots and H and 10<=p:margin and 7<=M2 and p:A and 20070107<=date).
It was a clean game for New England with just four penalties. The Patriots are 13-0 OU (13.5 ppg) since December 24, 2006 when they led by at least a TD after one quarter last game and committed five or fewer penalties (7<=p:M1 and penalties<=5 and team=Patriots and 20061224<=date).
In the snowstorm, they did not have to settle for field goals early, picking up four TDs. The Patriots are 10-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since January 7, 2007 when they scored at least four touchdowns in a win on the road last week (p
s>=4 and team=Patriots and p:AW and NB and 20070107<=date).
Green Bay had a killer 7-3 loss last week when Aaron Rogers went out with a concussion. They were not prepared for life without Rogers, scoring 23.5 points less than expected as a 6.5 point favorite. The Packers are 13-0 OU (14.0 ppg) since November 14, 1999 after a game where they scored at least 10 points less than expected and failed to cover by at least a TD (p:ats margin<=-7 and pPS<=-10 and team=Packers and 19991114<=date).
They just could not move the ball consistently with only 13 first downs, however, the Packers are 11-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since January 2, 2000 after a game which they picked up 15 or fewer first downs and scored 14 or fewer points (p:FD<=15 and points<=14 and team=Packers and 20000102<=date).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 38, Green Bay 17
4* Green Bay / New England Over 43
With Matt Flynn at QB for Green Bay, New England will try to take advantage. They always blitz young QBs and what that does is create the opportunity for big plays – for both the offense and defense. Look for New England to get close to this total themselves and for Green Bay to do enough to push it over.
That’s what happened last week in a 36-7 win over Chicago. It was an impressively commanding win as they led by 7 after one quarter and 33 at half. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (8.4 ppg) since January 07, 2007 at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road (team=Patriots and H and 10<=p:margin and 7<=M2 and p:A and 20070107<=date).
It was a clean game for New England with just four penalties. The Patriots are 13-0 OU (13.5 ppg) since December 24, 2006 when they led by at least a TD after one quarter last game and committed five or fewer penalties (7<=p:M1 and penalties<=5 and team=Patriots and 20061224<=date).
In the snowstorm, they did not have to settle for field goals early, picking up four TDs. The Patriots are 10-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since January 7, 2007 when they scored at least four touchdowns in a win on the road last week (p
s>=4 and team=Patriots and p:AW and NB and 20070107<=date). Green Bay had a killer 7-3 loss last week when Aaron Rogers went out with a concussion. They were not prepared for life without Rogers, scoring 23.5 points less than expected as a 6.5 point favorite. The Packers are 13-0 OU (14.0 ppg) since November 14, 1999 after a game where they scored at least 10 points less than expected and failed to cover by at least a TD (p:ats margin<=-7 and pPS<=-10 and team=Packers and 19991114<=date).
They just could not move the ball consistently with only 13 first downs, however, the Packers are 11-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since January 2, 2000 after a game which they picked up 15 or fewer first downs and scored 14 or fewer points (p:FD<=15 and points<=14 and team=Packers and 20000102<=date).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 38, Green Bay 17
Larry Ness
8* St Louis -2.5
Kansas City has a serious problem at QB given the emergency appendectomy that Matt Cassel went through last week. Coach Todd Haley has said that his starting QB will be a game-time decision and I'm expecting Cassel to play. However, can be really be that effective having gone under the knife just over a week ago? Cassel may be limited to just handoffs or quick throws from the shotgun formation. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, that may still be preferable to having to play Brody Croyle who is winless in 10 career starts. Last week against the Chargers, Croyle was completely ineffective by completing 7-of-17 passes for only 40 yards. Kansas City managed a mere 67 total yards of offense while failing to convert ANY of their 11, third down opportunities. The result was a 31-0 mauling at the hands of the Chargers. Now Kansas City must stay on the road for the second straight week, where the Chiefs have lost (and failed to cover) in FIVE of their last six games. KC will hope to get its rushing game going (No. 1 at 165.4 YPG) but it will face a very strong front-seven from the Rams' defense. St Louis ranks 12th in the NFL by limiting teams to just 105.7 rushing YPG and on its home field, has held teams to only 89 rushing YPG (KC averages a more modest 130 YPG rushing on the road). The Rams are allowing just 310.5 total YPG and 16.2 PPG at home, overall. Given the limited passing attack the Chiefs will be relegated to one way or another, the Rams will be able to stack more players in the box to further complicate Kansas City's aspirations to run the football. St Louis returns home after three games in a row on the road that concluded with a 31-13 loss in New Orleans. The Rams should rebound with a better effort here as they have covered in SEVEN of their last eight games coming off a pointspread loss. St. Louis has won (and covered) in FOUR of its last five games on their home field and one of the reasons the Rams have been more effective at home is that rookie QB Sam Bradford is given a 'longer leash' to orchestrate their passing attack. Both of these teams need a win to keep pace in their respective playoff chases. However, the KC quarterback situation is just too much for them to overcome. St Louis will take care of business back on its home field and move to 7-7, not bad for a team which had won just SIX games (combined) the previous three seasons!
8* St Louis -2.5
Kansas City has a serious problem at QB given the emergency appendectomy that Matt Cassel went through last week. Coach Todd Haley has said that his starting QB will be a game-time decision and I'm expecting Cassel to play. However, can be really be that effective having gone under the knife just over a week ago? Cassel may be limited to just handoffs or quick throws from the shotgun formation. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, that may still be preferable to having to play Brody Croyle who is winless in 10 career starts. Last week against the Chargers, Croyle was completely ineffective by completing 7-of-17 passes for only 40 yards. Kansas City managed a mere 67 total yards of offense while failing to convert ANY of their 11, third down opportunities. The result was a 31-0 mauling at the hands of the Chargers. Now Kansas City must stay on the road for the second straight week, where the Chiefs have lost (and failed to cover) in FIVE of their last six games. KC will hope to get its rushing game going (No. 1 at 165.4 YPG) but it will face a very strong front-seven from the Rams' defense. St Louis ranks 12th in the NFL by limiting teams to just 105.7 rushing YPG and on its home field, has held teams to only 89 rushing YPG (KC averages a more modest 130 YPG rushing on the road). The Rams are allowing just 310.5 total YPG and 16.2 PPG at home, overall. Given the limited passing attack the Chiefs will be relegated to one way or another, the Rams will be able to stack more players in the box to further complicate Kansas City's aspirations to run the football. St Louis returns home after three games in a row on the road that concluded with a 31-13 loss in New Orleans. The Rams should rebound with a better effort here as they have covered in SEVEN of their last eight games coming off a pointspread loss. St. Louis has won (and covered) in FOUR of its last five games on their home field and one of the reasons the Rams have been more effective at home is that rookie QB Sam Bradford is given a 'longer leash' to orchestrate their passing attack. Both of these teams need a win to keep pace in their respective playoff chases. However, the KC quarterback situation is just too much for them to overcome. St Louis will take care of business back on its home field and move to 7-7, not bad for a team which had won just SIX games (combined) the previous three seasons!
Where did he get that line on the Jets game?
Hey Crimpride....
I googled him too and I found that another website calls him Justin "Fade Me" Covers.
He is getting tooled on in another web site just like he is here.
Depending on The N.E. game, he will have given out twice as many losers as he did winners over the last 14 days.
The book hates me over the last 2 weeks.
Hey Crimpride....
I googled him too and I found that another website calls him Justin "Fade Me" Covers.
He is getting tooled on in another web site just like he is here.
Depending on The N.E. game, he will have given out twice as many losers as he did winners over the last 14 days.
The book hates me over the last 2 weeks.
