Sunday's Best NFL Bets
Kansas City Chiefs at Saint Louis Rams (-3, 42)
There weren’t many NFL betting fans that really thought that this duel between Show Me State rivals was going to mean much, let alone be a clash of division leaders. Alas, that’s what has happened for Sunday, as the St. Louis Rams meet the Kansas City Chiefs at the Edward Jones Dome.
KC has had a tremendous revival this year, and it is fantastic to be talking about it this late in the season. However, with one more loss, the door swings open for the San Diego Chargers, who open this week just one game back with three to play. Last week was an embarrassment that needs to be forgotten quickly, as the Chiefs were beaten 31-0 by those Chargers to fall into this predicament. However, things are still already, as they control their own destiny and know that three wins will send them to the playoffs. The biggest question is whether QB Matt Cassel is going to be back in the fold or not. We tend to believe that he’ll be back, and the oddsmakers are confident enough in that decision to make KC a favorite in this game. Cassel has one of the best TD/INT ratios in the league, and you probably don’t even know it. He has thrown 23 TDs against just four picks, and his taking care of the football has made things tremendously easier for his duo of rushers, RB Jamaal Charles and RB Thomas Jones, who will have over 2,000 yards combined by the time this one finishes up on Sunday. As always, watch out for WR Dwayne Bowe as well, as he has 14 TD receptions to lead the team in scoring.
The Rams were certainly not a team that anyone figured would be hanging around in Week 15, and though a 6-7 record doesn’t normally suggest that a team would be playoff bound, that really could be the case. St. Louis knows that winning out would win the NFC West, and even just winning the two games after this one would get the job done as well. Whereas most of the NFL is racing to get to ten or 11 wins, the Rams are just trying to get to eight. QB Sam Bradford might be guiding one of the few offenses that still has a chance this year that is scoring less than 20 points per game, but he is clearly the undisputed leader of this franchise already as a rookie, and there is no doubt that he is winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Bradford has thrown for 2,884 yards and 17 TDs this year, and he has done so without having a single receiver with more than three TD grabs. He also won’t have a receiver this year reach even 800 yards in all likelihood.
The Rams might be a great story and might be a great home team, but there’s a point that you just don’t sneak up on anyone anymore. Assuming that Cassel is healthy, this is a great spot for the Chiefs to take just one more step towards that AFC West title. With two home games on tap when this one is over, the coast really might just be clear.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-14, 43.5)
One team is well on its way to be the top ranked team in the AFC. The other is set to go from a Super Bowl favorite to a dud that fails to even make the second season if things don’t change. That’s what’s facing the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers come Sunday Night Football in Week 15.
The Packers are facing their biggest hurdle, arguably in the last two decades for the franchise. QB Aaron Rodgers suffered his second concussion of the year last week in a despicable 7-3 loss to the Detroit Lions, and all week, the question has been whether or not he is going to play this week. That looks like it’s going to remain a question right up until this one kicks off on Sunday night. If Rodgers can’t go, it will be the first time since QB Brett Favre took the reins over from QB Don Majkowski in 1992 that the Packers are going to be calling on a backup quarterback to start a game. The only good news for Green Bay in this one is that its defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in scoring at 14.5 points per game and that four of the team’s last six foes have been held to seven points or fewer. That unit might need to play virtually perfect ball for a second straight week if the Packers have any hopes of getting into the playoffs. A loss in this one isn’t fatal, but it certainly does put the team in a very compromising position, a game back of at least one, and probably two teams, with just two to play.
The Patriots don’t have to worry about anything of the sorts, as they already know that they are headed to the postseason. If the NFL odds hold true and the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the New York Jets earlier in the day, New England will enter this one as the AFC East champs with three games to play. That’s a foregone conclusion at this point, but the Pats have their eye on a bigger prize: The No. 1 overall seed in the AFC playoffs. We already know that New England has to lose a game at some point at home to be knocked from its perch, but a Pittsburgh loss parlayed with a Pats win on Sunday night gets the job done. It’s clear that this is strength vs. strength here, as the New England offense is the most feared in the game in spite of the fact that the only real “name” on the unit is that of QB Tom Brady, the soon to be two time MVP of the league. Brady has been fantastic this year, throwing for 3,398 yards with 29 TDs against four picks.
This is quite the interesting game, as we are wondering what the oddsmakers are going to do with the NFL lines in this one. However, whether Rodgers plays or not, we tend to believe that the Green Bay defense is going to be the key. You know that Head Coach Mike McCarthy is going to have his team fighting for its life, and you also know that that aura and great play of late for the Patriots is going to inflate this line one way or the other when it comes out. You’ll probably be catching a boatload of points. Be sure to take them all.
Pick: Green Bay Packers