wunderdog nfl week 15
Game: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys - Sunday December 19, 2010 1:00 pm
TOTAL: Under 45.5 (-110) (Normal)
The Washington Redskins had too many games last year where they just could not score a sufficient amount of points to post wins. They brought in Donovan McNabb to hopefully ignite a lethargic offense but obviously that hasn't been the answer. With the team averaging just 18.3 points per game, McNabb has been benched in favor of Rex Grossman. If you are putting Rex Grossman in for a spark, you are in REAL trouble. Long time subscribers of mine know my opinion of Grossman - he shouldn't even be in the NFL. The Skins went 11 games last year without scoring 20 and already have nine, and counting, this year. Their offensive woes in the last month show them at under 20 in each of their last four, averaging 13.8 points per game. The kicking game has gone south and cost them dearly last week. This is a team that has topped the 20 mark now just ten times in their last 40 games, or 20% of the time. If their offense doesn't improve (and why would it, under Grossman), Dallas would have to score 30 here to push this one over the total. That's something the Cowboys have done just four times in their last 22 games. The first game these two teams played finished at 13-7 and was posted with a total of 39.5. Washington is now 12-4 UNDER in their last 16 as a road dog of 3.5-10. The last four in this series have all gone UNDER averaging just 18.5 total points scored! I like the UNDER in this one.
Game: Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals - Sunday December 19, 2010 1:00 pm
ATS: Cleveland Browns +1 (-110) (Normal)
The Bengals had a lot of people on the bandwagon when the season began, many thinking this could be a Super Bowl team or at least a playoff team that could make a run. In a season of dissapointments, the Benglas are staking a claim to the biggest. They come into this one with a 10 game losing streak and a 2-11 mark on the season. This team was up by 17 at the half to Buffalo and were outscored 35-0 in the second half. Last week they gave Pittsburgh all they could handle in what was in reality their Super Bowl. They will have nothing left in the tank this week against lowly Cleveland and, when you have a bad team playing with a lack of purpose and motivation good things rarely happen. The Browns are simply a more effective offense behind Colt McCoy and the inspired legs of Peyton Hillis in the backfield. Cleveland should be able to get in the end zone vs. the Bengals. The Browns defense has really gotten strong, especially with the emergence of Joe Haden. They rank 21st against the pass, but since their bye week they rank #6! Carson Palmer has a dead arm and just can't get any zip anymore, so the Bengals offense should continue to struggle here. The Browns are 15-3 ATS on the road facing a home team with a winning record in their last 18. The Bengals simply should not be favored here after losing ten straight and going 5-21 ATS in their last 26 as a favorite (including 1-11 their last twelve). To add icing to the cake, the Bengals are 0-8 ATS the past two seasons vs. losing teams. Take Cleveland.
Game: Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals - Sunday December 19, 2010 1:00 pm
TOTAL: Under 40 (-110) (Normal)
The Bengals are playing low in December at 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 and four of the last five in this series at Cincinnati have fallen shy of the total. Eric Mangini's teams are 13-4 UNDER in the last four weeks of the regular season while Marvin Lewis is 37-26 UNDER in his career at home. The UNDER gets the call in this one.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts - Sunday December 19, 2010 1:00 pm
TOTAL: Under 48.5 (-110) (Normal)
The Colts have scored 30+ points in back-to-back games now for the first time all season. This is still a good offensive team, but even in the days where 30 points for the Colts was the norm, the large totals never seemed to live up to their billing. This is a team that played against a posted total of 49 vs. New England earlier this year, so the only reason this one is in the same area is the Colts last two games. Indy has actually been a 67% UNDER team when facing a total of more than 48 in their last 24 times as they are 16-8 to the UNDER. The Jags defense was bit leaky last week vs. the Raiders as they allowed 31 points. But, that really just drives the total artifically higher for this game. The reality is the Jags have been playing good defense overall with their previous five opponents averaging just 18.2 ppg. The Jags have only gone OVER in two of their last nine on the road when facing a team with a winning home record. The Colts are UNDER in seven of their last ten games vs. a team with a .500 or better road record. I like this one to fall short of the total.
Game: Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins - Sunday December 19, 2010 1:00 pm
ATS: Buffalo Bills +5.5 (-110) (Normal)
The Bills are a well-disguised good team. How can I call them good when their record reads 3-10? Simply because they have played well above that record and are better than they first appear. The Bills had a hiccup vs. Minnesota a couple games back where they were doused 38-14, but over an eight game stretch discounting that one, this team is right there in every game. Their other seven games show three wins and overtime losses at three top teams on the road in Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They also dropped a 3-point decision to Chicago. That is four teams that will all be playing in January and the Bills took them all to the wire. Ryan Fitzpatrick has made the offense respectable with his 21 TD passes and 85 QB rating. The Dolphins opened the season 2-0, but haven't put together consecutive wins since. The problem is they are a very unbalanced team. The defense plays superb most of the time, but the offense is a continuous struggle having scored 15 points or less in more than half their games. If the defense gives up even one TD here, covering 5.5 is going to be a chore. The Dolphins are one of the worst home favorites in the NFL as they are a horrific 6-27 ATS in their last 33 as home chalk. Under Tony Sparano, this team is 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bills, despite their vastly improved play, are still under the radar at 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight. I like Buffalo in this one.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs @ St. Louis Rams - Sunday December 19, 2010 1:00 pm
ATS: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 (-110) (Normal)
The Chiefs lost big last week at San Diego without Matt Cassel. His status is unclear at this point, but he said he is ready to go and he has practiced all week. I am assuming he makes the start. The Rams have suddenly started to wear down on defense. They are going to have a tough time stopping the KC run game which is ranked #1 in the league at 165 yards per game. The Rams have given up 100+ rushing yards to each of their last four opponents and the fifth, San Francisco, just missed at 98. The combined numbers show 121 carries 592 yards 4.9 yards a pop. Kansas City is going to run the ball down their throat in this one and the Rams seem helpless to stop it. The Chiefs have been a big bounce back team at 5-1 ATS in their last six after a loss. That's part of a larger trend that shows Kansas City at 32-17 ATs in thier last 49 road games following a loss. In their last 26 road games following a double-digit loss, the Chiefs are 20-6 ATS. The Rams offensive woes have followed them into their next game as they strive for consistency. St. Louis now 17-35-2 ATS in a game after scoring 14 or less in their last one. The Chiefs get this one.
Game: New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens - Sunday December 19, 2010 1:00 pm
ATS: Baltimore Ravens -1 (-110) (Normal)
The Saints will put their six game winning streak on the line in Baltimore this week. The Saints started a bit slow at 5-3 but have begun to have that "Super" look again. Or have they? The Saints schedule has been kind of to them all season long. Their six-game winning streak shows just a single win vs. a team over .500 and that one kicked off in New Orleans. On the season, they have beaten just three winning teams and they have just one such road win. Yes, this team is 10-3 but they have benefited from playing Minnesota, San Francisco, Carolina (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle, St. Louis and Cincinnati. This will be their toughest road opponent of the season and the Ravens have been extremely tough at home. Over their last 23 home games, the Ravens are just 15 total points away from being 23-0! The Ravens stand at 18-5 straight up and the five losses by a combined total of 15 points, with no loss larger than 4 points. The bottom line here is they are in every single game here over just about three seasons of home games. When you add up what they have done at home, the tally shows 44-21-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 66. The Saints are in a role they have struck out in here as they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine as a dog of 3 points or less. I like the Ravens to make a statement here.
Game: Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks - Sunday December 19, 2010 4:05 pm
ATS: Seattle Seahawks +6 (-110) (Normal)
The Falcons are having a big year and at 11-2. They now control their own destiny to establish homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They have rattled off seven straight wins despite remaining statistically below average on both sides of the ball in terms of yards per play. They are not turning the ball over, getting smart and clutch play from Matty Ice, and Michael Turner is running the ball efficiently. Defensively they are a bend, but they don't break defense and that has withheld enough to keep them winning. They rank in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed. Don't get me wrong. Atlanta is a solid team, but their stats don't indicate an 11-2 record. Seattle has struggled offensively, but the good news is that two of Hasselbeck's top two targets in Mike Williams and Ben Obumanu will be back for this one. It should help cut down on the mistakes he is forced into with having his top two recievers back in the lineup. Colin Cole was back on defense last week and it showed as the Niners ran for just 83 yards on 23 carries. Playing the team with the best record always gets the juices flowing for the home team. This is a huge game for Seattle as they are still alive for a home game in the first round of the playoffs. So, we should see a top effort here from the Seahawks. They have delivered an 8-3-2 ATS mark over their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Seattle has been victim to some bad luck lately losing the turnover battle 10-2 in their last three games. That kind of stuff tends to even out and if it does, they will perform better. I like Seattle with the points here. Important note: Remember to risk no more than 5% of your entire bankroll on any pick!
Game: Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders - Sunday December 19, 2010 4:15 pm
ATS: Denver Broncos +7 (-110) (Bonus Play*)
It has been a long time since the Raiders have had to tackle a sizeable number like this. Most look back at last week and see Denver failing miserably against a weak Arizona team and will turn to Oakland here. Last week's poor performance is always good for some line value the following week and we get it here with Denver. What gets easily forgotten is Denver's 4-point loss at Kansas City two weeks ago, their 3-point loss to St. Louis three weeks ago and their 20-point win vs. what was then a hot Chiefs team. I think Denver comes into this one with a lot of fire as Oakland beat them 59-14 earlier in the season. They are going to be busting their butts to avenge that game. There is no doubt you will see a different Denver team on the field for this one. The Raiders aren't exactly playing great football and last week Jacksonville racked up over 200 yards rushing against them. The Raiders are bound to be a bit over-confident after destroying the Broncos early in the season. And, they have Kansas City and Indianapolis on deck, games that will get more of their attention than this one. Oakland is killing backers as a favorite at just 6-21 ATS in their last 27. Road teams have gotten the money in the last five in this series, with the Broncos 5-2 ATS in their last seven here. This is just too many points. Take Denver plus the points.