Ben Burns full card
Ben Burns | NFL Side Sun, 12/13/09 - 1:00 PM •Š
triple-dime bet 114 CHI 4.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 113 GBP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. I won a big play on the 'under' when these teams faced each other earlier in the season. This time, I believe that the value lies with the home underdog.
Everyone is pretty down on the Bears these days & its true that they're dealing with some injuries. That's been factored into the line though, as we're now getting nearly as many points with them, as Bears' backers did in the earlier game at Lambeau. Note that while the Bears did lose that one by six points, they had a significant statistical advantage.
Despite all the negative sentiment and the disappointing overall results, the Bears are coming off an 8-point win, albeit vs. the Rams, and they're home record of 4-2 is actually better than Green Bay's 3-2 mark on the road.
While they won't be making the playoffs, they're technically not eliminated yet. As defensive end Alex Brown noted: "I don't know the chances, I'm not a math guy, but if there is a possibility, we just got to win..." While the Bears realize that's not realistically going to happen, they'd still LOVE to damage the cha‡nces of their arch-rival.
The Bears haven't been swept in a season series by the Packers since 2003 and they've won three of the last four meetings here at Soldier Field. Last year, they won 20-17 here. The previous season, in December of 2007, they were big underdogs but rose to the occasion and won by a score of 35-7. Catching the Packers playing on a short week, I expect them to again elevate their level of play, earning AT LEAST the cover and improving to 50-39-1 ATS the last 90 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. *10 Top 2009 AFC north play
Game: San Diego Chargers at Dallas Cowboys Dec 13 2009 4:15PM
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. You've probably already heard all the talk about how Dallas can't win in December and how San Diego can't lose in December. It's true that's been the case in recent years. However, I believe that this will prove to be an excellent spot for a play on the home team. The Cowboys lost last week. However, they could have easily won that one, as they outgained the Giants by a 424-337 margin. This will be their third home game in their past four games. The Chargers, on the other hand, are playing the second of back to back road games and are now playing their third road game in the past four. They've gone back and forth from the West Coast numerous times this season and I believe that all the travel may be beginning to take a toll. While this is still a big game for San Diego, it's arguably much bigger for the Cowboys. For starters, they desperately want to silence all the "can't win in December" talk. More importantly, they badly need a victory to stay in the playoff hunt. San Diego is a game ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West and plays two of its final three at home. On the other hand, the Cowboys are tied with Philadelphia on top the AFC East (with Giants, who have beaten them twice, only 1 game behind them) and play their next two on the road. Making things even more difficult, the next one comes at New Orleans. When considering how tough the Saints have been this season, this one is essentially a "must win" game for them. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS their last seven games played on turf. Conversely, the Chargers are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS their last five on turf. The Chargers usually have an advantage over most teams that they play at the quarterback position. With all due respect to Rivers, who is having another great year, I don't expect that to be the case this afternoon. Romo is coming off a game which saw him throw for 392 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Romo, who completed an outstanding 41 of 55 (74.5 percent) passes, now has 16 touchdowns with just three interceptions in his last eight games, topping the 300 yard mark in five of them. Jason Witten, who caught 14 passes for 156 yards, is capable of matching San Diego's Antonio Gates while the duo of Miles Austin and Roy Williams arguably give the Cowboys the advantage at the receiver position. As far as the running game goes, even though Tomlinson still gets a lot of publicity, the Chargers rush for just 87 yards per game. Dallas, on the other hand, averages 130 rushing yards per game. Its not just the Dallas runs more often either. The Cowboys run the ball 26 times per game. The Chargers run the ball 27 times per game. San Diego gains an average of 3.3 yards per carry. The Cowboys gain an average of five yards per carry. Perhaps most importantly, I believe that the Cowboys have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas allowed a lot of points last week. However, that was the first time in 11 games that they allowed more than 21 points. They'd held each of their previous five opponents to 17 points or less with those teams averaging less than 13 points. For the season, the Cowboys are allowing 17.7 points and 15.2 at home. The Chargers, who allowed 23 vs. lowly Cleveland last week, are allowing 20.2. The Chargers are 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS the last 11 times that they played a game with a line ranging from +3 to -3. During the same stretch, the Cowboys are 9-5 SU/ATS when they have done so. I expect them to improve on those stats here, temporarily silencing the "can't win in December" talk and taking a critical step towards making the playoffs. *10 GOM
Rest of his Card:
NYG, DEN UNDER, JAGS
