GoodFella | NFL Side Sun, 12/13/09 - 4:15 PM Â~
triple-dime bet 130 DAL -3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 129 SDC
Analysis:
This is my ONE AND ONLY NFL Game of the Year Release
I'm going to grade this as a 4* (Four-Star) Release- My ONLY 4* Release as a Pregame Pro
I absolutely love how this one is shaping up- and I see GREAT VALUE getting Dallas at -3 in this spot on Sunday. San Diego has ripped off 7 straight wins & are the "darlings" of the NFL right now- as they are the "hot and sheek" team right. The Public is pounding the Chargers to a 70%, and they will keep betting them all week and right up until kick-off, as the whole world knows about the struggles the Cowboys have had in December. Dallas is a whole different animal at home in their new stadium- and I have backed them with Top Plays in blowout Wins over Atlanta and on Thanksgiving over Oakland. Taking a closer peek at some of the Chargers wins during their 7 game win streak- we see they have two wins over KC, one win over the Browns, one win over Oakland & finally a win over a Broncos club who was playing without their starting QB Kyle Orton. Also of importance here for San Diego- is the faœct they are playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and clearly Dallas & their fans will be extremely fired up for this game, coming off the loss at the NYG last week, in a game they easily could have won- but they let it get away late in the game. This game and line sets up perfect IMO- with the Cowboys laying only a field goal AT HOME due to the Chargers (7 game win streak) and the fact that Dallas is coming off a loss and public knowledge of their "December Struggles"....Bottomline for me here- I really look for Another VERY STRONG all around game from the Cowboys in this spot and I think the Chargers have more then their hands full vs a very pissed off and motivated Cowboys team on Sunday. Lay the short number here with the Cowboys on Sunday fellas
triple-dime bet 130 DAL -3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 129 SDC
Analysis:
This is my ONE AND ONLY NFL Game of the Year Release
I'm going to grade this as a 4* (Four-Star) Release- My ONLY 4* Release as a Pregame Pro
I absolutely love how this one is shaping up- and I see GREAT VALUE getting Dallas at -3 in this spot on Sunday. San Diego has ripped off 7 straight wins & are the "darlings" of the NFL right now- as they are the "hot and sheek" team right. The Public is pounding the Chargers to a 70%, and they will keep betting them all week and right up until kick-off, as the whole world knows about the struggles the Cowboys have had in December. Dallas is a whole different animal at home in their new stadium- and I have backed them with Top Plays in blowout Wins over Atlanta and on Thanksgiving over Oakland. Taking a closer peek at some of the Chargers wins during their 7 game win streak- we see they have two wins over KC, one win over the Browns, one win over Oakland & finally a win over a Broncos club who was playing without their starting QB Kyle Orton. Also of importance here for San Diego- is the faœct they are playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and clearly Dallas & their fans will be extremely fired up for this game, coming off the loss at the NYG last week, in a game they easily could have won- but they let it get away late in the game. This game and line sets up perfect IMO- with the Cowboys laying only a field goal AT HOME due to the Chargers (7 game win streak) and the fact that Dallas is coming off a loss and public knowledge of their "December Struggles"....Bottomline for me here- I really look for Another VERY STRONG all around game from the Cowboys in this spot and I think the Chargers have more then their hands full vs a very pissed off and motivated Cowboys team on Sunday. Lay the short number here with the Cowboys on Sunday fellas
Handicapper: Big Al McMordie
Event Date: 12/13/2009 4:05:00 PM EST
Sport: NFL
Pick Selection: REDSKINS
At 4:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Washington Redskins plus the points over Oakland. Last week, these two teams had very opposite emotions. Oakland came from behind to shock the world champion Steelers, with a 27-24 win as a 14.5-point underdog, while Washington collapsed against the unbeaten New Orleans Saints. Kicker Shaun Suisham (now ex-kicker, after his release on Tuesday) missed two field goals, including a 23-yard chip shot, which would have wrapped up the game for the Redskins, and the Saints went on to win the game 33-30. But even though Washington might be a bit down after that game, it is still deserving of a wager here, as Oakland falls into a nasty 26-43 ATS situation which goes AGAINST teams off upset wins as underdogs of more than 10 points, provided they're NOT favored by 3 or more points. This system has already provided two blowout winners this season with San Diego over KC (after the Chiefs' upset win over the Steelers), and the Jets over Oakland (after the Raiders' upset of Philly). Look for the Redskins to bring Oakland back down to Earth. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
Event Date: 12/13/2009 4:05:00 PM EST
Sport: NFL
Pick Selection: REDSKINS
At 4:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Washington Redskins plus the points over Oakland. Last week, these two teams had very opposite emotions. Oakland came from behind to shock the world champion Steelers, with a 27-24 win as a 14.5-point underdog, while Washington collapsed against the unbeaten New Orleans Saints. Kicker Shaun Suisham (now ex-kicker, after his release on Tuesday) missed two field goals, including a 23-yard chip shot, which would have wrapped up the game for the Redskins, and the Saints went on to win the game 33-30. But even though Washington might be a bit down after that game, it is still deserving of a wager here, as Oakland falls into a nasty 26-43 ATS situation which goes AGAINST teams off upset wins as underdogs of more than 10 points, provided they're NOT favored by 3 or more points. This system has already provided two blowout winners this season with San Diego over KC (after the Chiefs' upset win over the Steelers), and the Jets over Oakland (after the Raiders' upset of Philly). Look for the Redskins to bring Oakland back down to Earth. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +6
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home dog:
The Spurs have struggled offensively on the road, scoring 95 points or fewer four times and I expect them to have a "letdown" tonight, coming off a convincing and satisfying victory over Charlotte on Friday.
Keep in mind the Spurs are just 1-4-1 ATS their last six overall and just 1-7 ATS their last eight on the road.
On the other side of the court: Los Angeles continues its six-game homestand after splitting the first four. The Clippers, averaging 89.3 points over those four contests, lost 97-86 to Orlando on Tuesday; I expect a concerted effort on both sides of the ball tonight though as they look to rebound from that sub-par performance.
Despite the defeat on Tuesday, Los Angeles still has won five of eight. During that stretch, the Clippers are yielding 90.9 points and forcing 16.4 turnovers per game.
Also remember, the Clippers always play tough in front of the hometown crowd, especially lately; LA is 4-2 SU its last six in friendly confines.
Bottom line: LA has lost 12 in a row to San Antonio, so will also have the "revenge" factor on its side; look for the CLIPPERS to move to 3-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and for the Spurs to fall to 1-3 ATS after allowing 85 points or less in their previous contest.
*7* CLIPPERS.[/FONT]
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +6
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home dog:
The Spurs have struggled offensively on the road, scoring 95 points or fewer four times and I expect them to have a "letdown" tonight, coming off a convincing and satisfying victory over Charlotte on Friday.
Keep in mind the Spurs are just 1-4-1 ATS their last six overall and just 1-7 ATS their last eight on the road.
On the other side of the court: Los Angeles continues its six-game homestand after splitting the first four. The Clippers, averaging 89.3 points over those four contests, lost 97-86 to Orlando on Tuesday; I expect a concerted effort on both sides of the ball tonight though as they look to rebound from that sub-par performance.
Despite the defeat on Tuesday, Los Angeles still has won five of eight. During that stretch, the Clippers are yielding 90.9 points and forcing 16.4 turnovers per game.
Also remember, the Clippers always play tough in front of the hometown crowd, especially lately; LA is 4-2 SU its last six in friendly confines.
Bottom line: LA has lost 12 in a row to San Antonio, so will also have the "revenge" factor on its side; look for the CLIPPERS to move to 3-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and for the Spurs to fall to 1-3 ATS after allowing 85 points or less in their previous contest.
*7* CLIPPERS.[/FONT]
GoodFella
HOUSTON TEXANS -6
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Love the situation we have here for this ballgame. We have a Texans team on a lenghty losing streak- KNOWING they can get a win here vs this Seattle ballclub. I really believe we are getting some solid line value with the Texans here-due to their extended losing streak coming into this ballgame. Seattle is a TERRIBLE ROAD TEAM playing a EARLY game when changing time zones- and thats exactly the situation we have here for this ballgame. Seattle really struggles vs passing teams- and I expect Houston to have much success in the passing game vs this Seattle secondary. I fully expect Houston to get this game in this spot- and I look for a double digit winner out of them on Sunday. Lay the points with the Texans guys.[/FONT]
HOUSTON TEXANS -6
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Love the situation we have here for this ballgame. We have a Texans team on a lenghty losing streak- KNOWING they can get a win here vs this Seattle ballclub. I really believe we are getting some solid line value with the Texans here-due to their extended losing streak coming into this ballgame. Seattle is a TERRIBLE ROAD TEAM playing a EARLY game when changing time zones- and thats exactly the situation we have here for this ballgame. Seattle really struggles vs passing teams- and I expect Houston to have much success in the passing game vs this Seattle secondary. I fully expect Houston to get this game in this spot- and I look for a double digit winner out of them on Sunday. Lay the points with the Texans guys.[/FONT]
Rocketman
ATLANTA HAWKS -12.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New Jersey is 31-53 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. New Jersey is 3-11 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more. Atlanta is 16-6 ATS in all games this year. Atlanta is 23-10 ATS last 3 years in December. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS this year against Atlantic Division opponents. New Jersey is scoring only 88.5 points per game overall and 88.6 points per game on the road this season. Atlanta is scoring 111.1 points per game at home this year. Nets are 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Nets are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Nets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Nets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Nets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic. Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win. Hawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. Hawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Hawks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Hawks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll play Atlanta for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
ATLANTA HAWKS -12.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New Jersey is 31-53 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. New Jersey is 3-11 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more. Atlanta is 16-6 ATS in all games this year. Atlanta is 23-10 ATS last 3 years in December. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS this year against Atlantic Division opponents. New Jersey is scoring only 88.5 points per game overall and 88.6 points per game on the road this season. Atlanta is scoring 111.1 points per game at home this year. Nets are 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Nets are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Nets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Nets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Nets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic. Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win. Hawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. Hawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Hawks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Hawks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll play Atlanta for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
Evan Altemus
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -1
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New York still has significant problems despite their win last week. Dallas outplayed them and should have won. The Giants secondary still has problems, and they were exploited by the Eagles earlier in the season. Philadelphia has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, and New York doesn’t match up well against them. The Eagles have played well on the road this season, and they have played well against the Giants recently, winning their last three games against them. Philadelphia will have Desean Jackson back for this game as well, and he is a significant key to the offense. Look for the Eagles to get the road win.
3 UNIT SELECTION EAGLES.[/FONT]
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -1
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New York still has significant problems despite their win last week. Dallas outplayed them and should have won. The Giants secondary still has problems, and they were exploited by the Eagles earlier in the season. Philadelphia has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, and New York doesn’t match up well against them. The Eagles have played well on the road this season, and they have played well against the Giants recently, winning their last three games against them. Philadelphia will have Desean Jackson back for this game as well, and he is a significant key to the offense. Look for the Eagles to get the road win.
3 UNIT SELECTION EAGLES.[/FONT]
Bob Balfe
CHICAGO BEARS +4
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Packers will be without their Nose Tackle and Jolly might not play. This Green Bay line is banged up and coming off a short week. The Bears are the home team and matchup well on offense. Chicago has two big cover corners that will shut down the Green Bay passing game. Look for the Bears to get a big cover.[/FONT]
CHICAGO BEARS +4
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Packers will be without their Nose Tackle and Jolly might not play. This Green Bay line is banged up and coming off a short week. The Bears are the home team and matchup well on offense. Chicago has two big cover corners that will shut down the Green Bay passing game. Look for the Bears to get a big cover.[/FONT]
Lenny Del Genio
BUFFALO BILLS -1
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Kansas City is just awful and does not deserve to be favored (0-5-1 ATS L3 years when laying points) against anyone, which is probably why we've seen the change in roles early in the week. The KC defense is allowing nearly 400 yards per game and has been shredded for 87 points the last two weeks. QB Cassel has been a disappointment and was benched last week vs. Denver. HC Todd Haley has not exactly won over his players. Buffalo, meanwhile, is at least playing hard for interim coach Perry Fewell. They have had three extra days to prepare for this matchup, which is huge this time of year. Although they lost that game to the Jets in Toronto, a designated "home game," they do typically play well outside of Orchard Park, covering seven of their last nine road games. The Bills have dominated this series, going 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS, the last nine head to head meetings, including a 54-31 beatdown last year. Although he is on the downside of his career, Terrell Owens still can have big games against bad teams. Kansas City certainly qualifies. Owens had 14 catches for 293 yards and two touchdowns against subpar Jaguars and Dolphins secondaries in Weeks 11 and 12. The Chiefs best wideout, Dwayne Bowe, is suspended for this matchup. Rushing edge goes to Buffalo with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Kansas City has covered just six of its last 21 home games. Take Buffalo.[/FONT]
BUFFALO BILLS -1
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Kansas City is just awful and does not deserve to be favored (0-5-1 ATS L3 years when laying points) against anyone, which is probably why we've seen the change in roles early in the week. The KC defense is allowing nearly 400 yards per game and has been shredded for 87 points the last two weeks. QB Cassel has been a disappointment and was benched last week vs. Denver. HC Todd Haley has not exactly won over his players. Buffalo, meanwhile, is at least playing hard for interim coach Perry Fewell. They have had three extra days to prepare for this matchup, which is huge this time of year. Although they lost that game to the Jets in Toronto, a designated "home game," they do typically play well outside of Orchard Park, covering seven of their last nine road games. The Bills have dominated this series, going 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS, the last nine head to head meetings, including a 54-31 beatdown last year. Although he is on the downside of his career, Terrell Owens still can have big games against bad teams. Kansas City certainly qualifies. Owens had 14 catches for 293 yards and two touchdowns against subpar Jaguars and Dolphins secondaries in Weeks 11 and 12. The Chiefs best wideout, Dwayne Bowe, is suspended for this matchup. Rushing edge goes to Buffalo with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Kansas City has covered just six of its last 21 home games. Take Buffalo.[/FONT]
Spartan
DENVER BRONCOS +7
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Colts have prevailed in all 12 games this year and have just kept on finding ways to get the job done. They have been coming from behind and quietly producing an outstanding season. Not much remains to be said about Peyton Manning that has not been said a few thousand times. I will admit they have surprised me the last couple of weeks as they have kept this perfect mark intact. I am not saying for one minute that I like Denver here to go into Indy and win this outright but I feel the Broncos will fight the Colts tooth and nail and take this to the very end. Indy would sure like to win this game, Denver really needs to win this game. It will be imperative that the Broncos rush the ball well sunday and keep Mannings opportunities at the lowest amount possible. Does not take a rocket scientist to figure that out. They rushed for 245 yards last week although I admit it was against Kansas City but Denver is capable of mounting a legitimate ground game here at Indy, I do believe that guys. Also, Denver must convert down in the red zone with some touchdowns and not settle for the field goals. That simply does not help us one bit here if they cannot do that. Fact is teams really, really get up for the Colts and thus far they have managed to fend off all comers. They very well might this sunday but I expect a valiant effort by this well coached Denver squad. I predict the Colts win this thing but by less than the 7 points they are burdened with. Take Denver.[/FONT]
DENVER BRONCOS +7
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Colts have prevailed in all 12 games this year and have just kept on finding ways to get the job done. They have been coming from behind and quietly producing an outstanding season. Not much remains to be said about Peyton Manning that has not been said a few thousand times. I will admit they have surprised me the last couple of weeks as they have kept this perfect mark intact. I am not saying for one minute that I like Denver here to go into Indy and win this outright but I feel the Broncos will fight the Colts tooth and nail and take this to the very end. Indy would sure like to win this game, Denver really needs to win this game. It will be imperative that the Broncos rush the ball well sunday and keep Mannings opportunities at the lowest amount possible. Does not take a rocket scientist to figure that out. They rushed for 245 yards last week although I admit it was against Kansas City but Denver is capable of mounting a legitimate ground game here at Indy, I do believe that guys. Also, Denver must convert down in the red zone with some touchdowns and not settle for the field goals. That simply does not help us one bit here if they cannot do that. Fact is teams really, really get up for the Colts and thus far they have managed to fend off all comers. They very well might this sunday but I expect a valiant effort by this well coached Denver squad. I predict the Colts win this thing but by less than the 7 points they are burdened with. Take Denver.[/FONT]
