Robert Ferringo
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #101 Pittsburgh (-3) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 10) AND Take #115 New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
7-Unit Play. Take #105 Denver (+7) over Indianapolis (1 p .m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Year.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #112 Kansas City (Pk) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #119 Miami (+3) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #124 Houston (-6) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #130 Dallas (-3) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #108 Minnesota (-7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #132 N.Y. Giants (-1) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
This week's totals:
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Miami at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 48.5 San Diego at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 43.5 Cincinnati at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 50.0 New Orleans at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 37.0 N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Denver at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.5 Seattle at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Carolina at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #101 Pittsburgh (-3) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 10) AND Take #115 New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
7-Unit Play. Take #105 Denver (+7) over Indianapolis (1 p .m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Year.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #112 Kansas City (Pk) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #119 Miami (+3) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #124 Houston (-6) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #130 Dallas (-3) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #108 Minnesota (-7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #132 N.Y. Giants (-1) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
This week's totals:
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Miami at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 48.5 San Diego at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 43.5 Cincinnati at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 50.0 New Orleans at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 37.0 N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Denver at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.5 Seattle at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Carolina at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Jack Clayton</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Sunday, December 13, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: Oddsmakers can't have every angle covered in pro football. They REALLY blew it on Sunday, undervaluing one team that has deadly mismatches on both sides of the football. The oddsmakers aren’t in tune, but Jack Clayton is and he is ready to make them pay! Get down now before the oddsmakers wake up! </TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>12/11/2009</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>3* (107) CINCINNATI BENGALS at (108) MINNESOTA VIKINGS. The Vikings return home after the "Debacle in the Desert", getting embarrassed on national TV by the Cardinals. It's not a good time to be playing them. I'm not impressed with the overachieving Bengals (9-3). A close look at this schedule finds a lot of easy games, especially now that we've seen the demise of the Steelers and Ravens the last month. The Bengals do have a road win at Green Bay in Week 2, though they allowed 24 points, but they have a string of close, low scoring games they won, and got bombed by one of the few multi-dimensional offenses they faced, a 28-17 loss to Houston. And Minnesota has so many more weapons on both sides of the ball than the Texans. Cincy loves to run the football to take the pressure off Carson Palmer, but they won't be able to run against this awesome Minnesota front line. The Vikings (10-2) can secure a spot in the playoffs with a victory on Sunday, and a win coupled with a Green Bay loss would hand Minnesota its second straight NFC North title. But first the Vikings will need to put last Sunday night's 30-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals behind them. The Vikings had a four-game winning streak broken, losing for the first time a 27-17 setback to Pittsburgh on October 25. That was also the only other time this season that Minnesota failed to score at least 27 points before this past Sunday, with the team having outscored its opposition 98-29 over the previous three games. Minnesota has won all six of its home games this year and 12 of its last 13 at the Metrodome. The home team has so much speed on offense and will win by double digits. Play the Vikings. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
paid and confirmed by me
$25.00 Guaranteed: Oddsmakers can't have every angle covered in pro football. They REALLY blew it on Sunday, undervaluing one team that has deadly mismatches on both sides of the football. The oddsmakers aren’t in tune, but Jack Clayton is and he is ready to make them pay! Get down now before the oddsmakers wake up! </TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>12/11/2009</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>3* (107) CINCINNATI BENGALS at (108) MINNESOTA VIKINGS. The Vikings return home after the "Debacle in the Desert", getting embarrassed on national TV by the Cardinals. It's not a good time to be playing them. I'm not impressed with the overachieving Bengals (9-3). A close look at this schedule finds a lot of easy games, especially now that we've seen the demise of the Steelers and Ravens the last month. The Bengals do have a road win at Green Bay in Week 2, though they allowed 24 points, but they have a string of close, low scoring games they won, and got bombed by one of the few multi-dimensional offenses they faced, a 28-17 loss to Houston. And Minnesota has so many more weapons on both sides of the ball than the Texans. Cincy loves to run the football to take the pressure off Carson Palmer, but they won't be able to run against this awesome Minnesota front line. The Vikings (10-2) can secure a spot in the playoffs with a victory on Sunday, and a win coupled with a Green Bay loss would hand Minnesota its second straight NFC North title. But first the Vikings will need to put last Sunday night's 30-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals behind them. The Vikings had a four-game winning streak broken, losing for the first time a 27-17 setback to Pittsburgh on October 25. That was also the only other time this season that Minnesota failed to score at least 27 points before this past Sunday, with the team having outscored its opposition 98-29 over the previous three games. Minnesota has won all six of its home games this year and 12 of its last 13 at the Metrodome. The home team has so much speed on offense and will win by double digits. Play the Vikings. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
paid and confirmed by me
Ben Burns | NFL Side Sun, 12/13/09 - 1:00 PM •Š
triple-dime bet 114 CHI 4.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 113 GBP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. I won a big play on the 'under' when these teams faced each other earlier in the season. This time, I believe that the value lies with the home underdog.
Everyone is pretty down on the Bears these days & its true that they're dealing with some injuries. That's been factored into the line though, as we're now getting nearly as many points with them, as Bears' backers did in the earlier game at Lambeau. Note that while the Bears did lose that one by six points, they had a significant statistical advantage.
Despite all the negative sentiment and the disappointing overall results, the Bears are coming off an 8-point win, albeit vs. the Rams, and they're home record of 4-2 is actually better than Green Bay's 3-2 mark on the road.
While they won't be making the playoffs, they're technically not eliminated yet. As defensive end Alex Brown noted: "I don't know the chances, I'm not a math guy, but if there is a possibility, we just got to win..." While the Bears realize that's not realistically going to happen, they'd still LOVE to damage the cha‡nces of their arch-rival.
The Bears haven't been swept in a season series by the Packers since 2003 and they've won three of the last four meetings here at Soldier Field. Last year, they won 20-17 here. The previous season, in December of 2007, they were big underdogs but rose to the occasion and won by a score of 35-7. Catching the Packers playing on a short week, I expect them to again elevate their level of play, earning AT LEAST the cover and improving to 50-39-1 ATS the last 90 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. *10 Top 2009 AFC north play
triple-dime bet 114 CHI 4.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 113 GBP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. I won a big play on the 'under' when these teams faced each other earlier in the season. This time, I believe that the value lies with the home underdog.
Everyone is pretty down on the Bears these days & its true that they're dealing with some injuries. That's been factored into the line though, as we're now getting nearly as many points with them, as Bears' backers did in the earlier game at Lambeau. Note that while the Bears did lose that one by six points, they had a significant statistical advantage.
Despite all the negative sentiment and the disappointing overall results, the Bears are coming off an 8-point win, albeit vs. the Rams, and they're home record of 4-2 is actually better than Green Bay's 3-2 mark on the road.
While they won't be making the playoffs, they're technically not eliminated yet. As defensive end Alex Brown noted: "I don't know the chances, I'm not a math guy, but if there is a possibility, we just got to win..." While the Bears realize that's not realistically going to happen, they'd still LOVE to damage the cha‡nces of their arch-rival.
The Bears haven't been swept in a season series by the Packers since 2003 and they've won three of the last four meetings here at Soldier Field. Last year, they won 20-17 here. The previous season, in December of 2007, they were big underdogs but rose to the occasion and won by a score of 35-7. Catching the Packers playing on a short week, I expect them to again elevate their level of play, earning AT LEAST the cover and improving to 50-39-1 ATS the last 90 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. *10 Top 2009 AFC north play
TONY WESTON
SUNDAY'S PLAYS
30 Dime Chargers
10 Dime Saints
Chargers at Cowboys
CHARGERS (ML) - Even though the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints are undefeated, the San Diego Chargers may very well be the hottest team in the NFL.
San Diego strolls into Dallas riding a 7-game SU winning streak and is beating opponents by an average of 16 points per game in that stretch. On the road during that streak the Chargers have gone a perfect 4-0 SU and are 3-1 ATS. In those four games, San Diego has beaten its opponents, on average, by 16.7 points per game.
Today, facing a Cowboys team that’s installed as about a 3 1/2 point favorite, not only will the Chargers cover, but they will win outright and increase this winning streak to 8 games.
Saints at Falcons
SAINTS - After so much promise last season, things have quickly fallen apart for the Atlanta Falcons this season.
The team is just 6-6 SU and is 7-5 ATS. However, the team started the season 4-1 SU and ATS and has gone just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS over its last 7 games.
Now they get to battle the undefeated Saints, who are riding a perfect 12-0 SU mark and are chasing that undefeated season.
New Orleans comes into this game 4-2 ATS on the road this year where it is beating its opponents by more than 16 points per game (36.7-20.5).
After a tough 33-30 overtime victory over the Redskins last week, the Saints get to battle a Falcons team that was destroyed 34-7 against the Eagles last week.
The Falcons have gone just 1-3 SU and ATS their last 4 games and will drop another one today.
SUNDAY'S PLAYS
30 Dime Chargers
10 Dime Saints
Chargers at Cowboys
CHARGERS (ML) - Even though the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints are undefeated, the San Diego Chargers may very well be the hottest team in the NFL.
San Diego strolls into Dallas riding a 7-game SU winning streak and is beating opponents by an average of 16 points per game in that stretch. On the road during that streak the Chargers have gone a perfect 4-0 SU and are 3-1 ATS. In those four games, San Diego has beaten its opponents, on average, by 16.7 points per game.
Today, facing a Cowboys team that’s installed as about a 3 1/2 point favorite, not only will the Chargers cover, but they will win outright and increase this winning streak to 8 games.
Saints at Falcons
SAINTS - After so much promise last season, things have quickly fallen apart for the Atlanta Falcons this season.
The team is just 6-6 SU and is 7-5 ATS. However, the team started the season 4-1 SU and ATS and has gone just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS over its last 7 games.
Now they get to battle the undefeated Saints, who are riding a perfect 12-0 SU mark and are chasing that undefeated season.
New Orleans comes into this game 4-2 ATS on the road this year where it is beating its opponents by more than 16 points per game (36.7-20.5).
After a tough 33-30 overtime victory over the Redskins last week, the Saints get to battle a Falcons team that was destroyed 34-7 against the Eagles last week.
The Falcons have gone just 1-3 SU and ATS their last 4 games and will drop another one today.
Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's winners
30 Dime -- TEXANS (minus points vs. Seahawks)
TEXANS
Houston has really had a tough time of it lately, losing its last four games (1-3 ATS) to fall out of the playoff picture.
But those losses were by three, three, eight and five points, respectively, against tough division opponents in Indianapolis (twice), Tennessee and Jacksonville. While so many close losses had to have hurt, the Texans are going to want to unleash some pain on someone else today, and Seattle looks like a good team to do it against.
While the Seahawks have won their last two games, the victories came against a horrible St. Louis team and at home against a struggling San Francisco squad. And the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 356 to 292 in last week's game.
The Seahawks have been awful on the road this year, going 1-5 straight up and ATS. And outside of the victory over the Rams, they have lost by margins of 13, 17, 21, 11 and 26 points away from Seattle.
With quarterback Matt Schaub and star receiver Andre Johnson leading the way, the Texans possess the NFL's fourth-best passing attack with 278.9 ypg. And defending the pass is not exactly the Seahawks' strong suit, as they allow 243.5 ypg through the air to rank 26th in the league.
Houston has been a strong second-half team in its existence and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in December. And Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog. Load up and take the Texans to win in a rout today.
10 Dime -- Bengals (plus points vs. VIKINGS)
BENGALS
Cincinnati is getting absolutely no respect this season despite a 9-3 record, but this team is for real.
And while the Bengals possess some real weapons on offense with Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco, it is the defense that have really sparked the team this year. Cincinnati is allowing a league-low 15.6 ppg this season, including an average of 11.5 over its past six games.
Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson are going to provide a tough test for the Bengals today, but if rookie receiver Percy Harvin, who has been suffering from severe migraines this week, has to miss the game or is limited, that could really hurt Minnesota's offense.
The Vikings are without standout linebacker E.J. Henderson, who was placed on injured reserve after breaking his left thigh bone last weekend, and that should help open some things up for Benson and the Bengals' running game today.
Cincinnati is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, including 6-0 this year, and the underdog has covered the spread in every one of the Bengals' games this season.
Minnesota is 2-7 ATS against teams with a winning record, while Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. I like the Bengals to cover the points today, and they might even win this game outright.
Sunday's winners
30 Dime -- TEXANS (minus points vs. Seahawks)
TEXANS
Houston has really had a tough time of it lately, losing its last four games (1-3 ATS) to fall out of the playoff picture.
But those losses were by three, three, eight and five points, respectively, against tough division opponents in Indianapolis (twice), Tennessee and Jacksonville. While so many close losses had to have hurt, the Texans are going to want to unleash some pain on someone else today, and Seattle looks like a good team to do it against.
While the Seahawks have won their last two games, the victories came against a horrible St. Louis team and at home against a struggling San Francisco squad. And the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 356 to 292 in last week's game.
The Seahawks have been awful on the road this year, going 1-5 straight up and ATS. And outside of the victory over the Rams, they have lost by margins of 13, 17, 21, 11 and 26 points away from Seattle.
With quarterback Matt Schaub and star receiver Andre Johnson leading the way, the Texans possess the NFL's fourth-best passing attack with 278.9 ypg. And defending the pass is not exactly the Seahawks' strong suit, as they allow 243.5 ypg through the air to rank 26th in the league.
Houston has been a strong second-half team in its existence and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in December. And Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog. Load up and take the Texans to win in a rout today.
10 Dime -- Bengals (plus points vs. VIKINGS)
BENGALS
Cincinnati is getting absolutely no respect this season despite a 9-3 record, but this team is for real.
And while the Bengals possess some real weapons on offense with Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco, it is the defense that have really sparked the team this year. Cincinnati is allowing a league-low 15.6 ppg this season, including an average of 11.5 over its past six games.
Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson are going to provide a tough test for the Bengals today, but if rookie receiver Percy Harvin, who has been suffering from severe migraines this week, has to miss the game or is limited, that could really hurt Minnesota's offense.
The Vikings are without standout linebacker E.J. Henderson, who was placed on injured reserve after breaking his left thigh bone last weekend, and that should help open some things up for Benson and the Bengals' running game today.
Cincinnati is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, including 6-0 this year, and the underdog has covered the spread in every one of the Bengals' games this season.
Minnesota is 2-7 ATS against teams with a winning record, while Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. I like the Bengals to cover the points today, and they might even win this game outright.
chris jordan
Chris Jordan Sunday winners ...
300♦ PACKERS - If the Bears' already lethargic running game could only manage 3.2 yards per rush against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league - last week against St. Louis - what do you think is going to take place when arch-rival Green Bay arrives at Soldier Field with the league's No. 1 overall defense? I've seen all the headlines ... "mission statement" and "must-win" and "arch-rivalry" ... none of it matters when the Packers tune up that defense. And anyway, if all those key phrases for this clash are true, couldn't it go Green Bay's way as well?
I realize Chicago coach Lovie Smith has an amazing record against the Packers, as he's never been swept by the Packers alternating split series' or sweeping them the past five seasons. And since the Bears lost the season opener, one might believe he'll have his troops ready for the Pack in this meeting.
I doubt it. The Bears could barely get past the Lambs, er, the Rams, last week. Now you expect them to stop the league's fifth-best quarterback? Seeing how the Packers' then-unestablished defense picked off Jay Cutler in Week 1 of the season, can the Bears honestly think the passing game will be the answer today?
I say no all around, as the Packers have hit their stride and are riding a four-game win streak and long gone is the memory of becoming Tampa Bay's only victim this season. Meanwhile, the Bears have lost six of eight and will likely miss the playoffs for the third straight year since their Super Bowl run. They're dinged up, and that won't help either.
This one could be over by halftime.
300♦ TEXANS - Think about this wisely, the line on a mediocre football team that has lost four straight is sitting on -7 points. Strange, huh? Well, maybe not so much when you look at the fact two of those losses by the Texans came against Indianapolis, one came against a suddenly red-hot Titans team and last week at Jacksonville it was against a scrappy Jags squad.
So here come the Seahawks, who have won two straight, but those wins were against the Rams and Niners. In fact, while the Seahakws might be 3-4 in their last seven games, make note the third win was against Detroit. But the four losses came against Arizona twice, Dallas and Minnesota. And three of those four were on the road.
Thus, you take the 'Hawks on the road and put 'em up against a decent team, they're likely going to fold. Make note, the Seahawks have not won a road game outside of the division since 2007.
The Texans can still clinch their first winning season in franchise history by winning the rest of their games. And for as bad as the non-first place AFC teams have played, who knows if the playoffs are out of the question.
There's a reason this line is so big, and I'm laying it knowing the Titans still have some things to play for.
300♦ COWBOYS - Speaking of strange lines, I had to double take the Pokes-Bolts line today. I did buy the half-point down to -3, and advise you to do the same thing. But again, we have a situation in which the oddsmakers are telling you which team is going to win by making the Cowboys the favorite. There's just too much talk about "what about the Cowboys in December," and "how about the Bolts in December." I am not buying into that and will lay a field goal here.
I'm looking for an aggressive pass rush to take advantage of a bit-banged up San Diego offensive line. The Cowboys have to keep pressure on Philip Rivers all day, frustrating him enough to make bad decisions, which in turn would result in costly turnovers.
A good indicator in this one will be who wins in the first quarter. During a seven-game win streak, the Chargers have outscored their opponents 52-7 in the first quarter. Conversely, the Cowboys have given up a mere 20 points in the first, their stingiest quarter no doubt about it.
The Bolts played in Cleveland last week, and are now back on the highway for the second of back-to-back road games. In such situations, the Bolts are 5-13 this decade. This is the week they hit the wall.
Chris Jordan Sunday winners ...
300♦ PACKERS - If the Bears' already lethargic running game could only manage 3.2 yards per rush against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league - last week against St. Louis - what do you think is going to take place when arch-rival Green Bay arrives at Soldier Field with the league's No. 1 overall defense? I've seen all the headlines ... "mission statement" and "must-win" and "arch-rivalry" ... none of it matters when the Packers tune up that defense. And anyway, if all those key phrases for this clash are true, couldn't it go Green Bay's way as well?
I realize Chicago coach Lovie Smith has an amazing record against the Packers, as he's never been swept by the Packers alternating split series' or sweeping them the past five seasons. And since the Bears lost the season opener, one might believe he'll have his troops ready for the Pack in this meeting.
I doubt it. The Bears could barely get past the Lambs, er, the Rams, last week. Now you expect them to stop the league's fifth-best quarterback? Seeing how the Packers' then-unestablished defense picked off Jay Cutler in Week 1 of the season, can the Bears honestly think the passing game will be the answer today?
I say no all around, as the Packers have hit their stride and are riding a four-game win streak and long gone is the memory of becoming Tampa Bay's only victim this season. Meanwhile, the Bears have lost six of eight and will likely miss the playoffs for the third straight year since their Super Bowl run. They're dinged up, and that won't help either.
This one could be over by halftime.
300♦ TEXANS - Think about this wisely, the line on a mediocre football team that has lost four straight is sitting on -7 points. Strange, huh? Well, maybe not so much when you look at the fact two of those losses by the Texans came against Indianapolis, one came against a suddenly red-hot Titans team and last week at Jacksonville it was against a scrappy Jags squad.
So here come the Seahawks, who have won two straight, but those wins were against the Rams and Niners. In fact, while the Seahakws might be 3-4 in their last seven games, make note the third win was against Detroit. But the four losses came against Arizona twice, Dallas and Minnesota. And three of those four were on the road.
Thus, you take the 'Hawks on the road and put 'em up against a decent team, they're likely going to fold. Make note, the Seahawks have not won a road game outside of the division since 2007.
The Texans can still clinch their first winning season in franchise history by winning the rest of their games. And for as bad as the non-first place AFC teams have played, who knows if the playoffs are out of the question.
There's a reason this line is so big, and I'm laying it knowing the Titans still have some things to play for.
300♦ COWBOYS - Speaking of strange lines, I had to double take the Pokes-Bolts line today. I did buy the half-point down to -3, and advise you to do the same thing. But again, we have a situation in which the oddsmakers are telling you which team is going to win by making the Cowboys the favorite. There's just too much talk about "what about the Cowboys in December," and "how about the Bolts in December." I am not buying into that and will lay a field goal here.
I'm looking for an aggressive pass rush to take advantage of a bit-banged up San Diego offensive line. The Cowboys have to keep pressure on Philip Rivers all day, frustrating him enough to make bad decisions, which in turn would result in costly turnovers.
A good indicator in this one will be who wins in the first quarter. During a seven-game win streak, the Chargers have outscored their opponents 52-7 in the first quarter. Conversely, the Cowboys have given up a mere 20 points in the first, their stingiest quarter no doubt about it.
The Bolts played in Cleveland last week, and are now back on the highway for the second of back-to-back road games. In such situations, the Bolts are 5-13 this decade. This is the week they hit the wall.
SPORTS INSIGHTS
NFL Week 14 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego, and Arizona to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
After a hugely-profitable week last Sunday, our offshore contacts were very talkative this week. One game that was mentioned by several line-makers was the Jacksonville-Miami match-up. Miami's big win over New England has people talking -- and believing -- that the Dolphins are a solid team. Indeed, about two-thirds of bets are taking the visiting, 6-6 Dolphins, over a 7-5 Jaguar team.
In addition to "betting against the Public" -- there is "reverse line movement" in the NFL marketplace, with CRIS opening at Jax -2.5 and ticking to the key number of Jax -3. This is an indication that "sharps" and "big money" are taking Jacksonville. We like "selling" Miami's big winning over New England. Jacksonville, a solid playoff contender, is undervalued at -2, at home.
Jacksonville -2 -110
San Diego Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys
This should be a great game: two first-place teams! This is potentially a playoff preview -- yet the Public is betting this game like they know the score. They can't believe San Diego is getting +3. This shows how the general Public has the philosophy of "what have you done for me lately?" The Chargers have won seven games in a row -- and have one of the league's better point differentials at +100.
On the other hand, Dallas just lost a tough game to their divisional rivals, the New York Giants. We're going to "buy" the Cowboys after their loss and "sell" the Chargers at their recent "high." The Chargers look like they are currently overvalued, with a huge 80% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) landing on the red-hot Chargers. Interestingly, there are indications that "sharps" are also taking the Cowboys. Although the line has stayed at Dallas -3, the odds have shifted slightly from the generally-available opener of Dallas -3 +105 to Dallas -3-110 -- even with almost all the bets going on San Diego. This is a relatively large move because the line is at the key number of 3.
Dallas Cowboys -3 -110
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings
This is another battle of first-place teams. The Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre have the headlines this year -- but the Cincinnati Bengals have quietly put up a 9-3 record. One of our contacts alerted us that very early sharp money pushed the point spread from its opener of Minnesota -7 down to Minny -6.5 almost immediately. We don't often see such fast action -- but our readers know that we like to follow the "sharps."
Bets are split almost 50/50 -- but we like the "smart money" "reverse line movement." In addition, we like the fact that the Bengals have been mostly "under the radar" while the Vikings have been in the headlines constantly all season -- with Brett Favre leading the Vikings to a 10-2 record. We'll take the Bengals, plus a chunk of points, against a Viking team that showed a chink in its armor last week -- with a loss against a solid Arizona team.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (19-17-1, 52.7%)
Jacksonville -2 -110
Dallas Cowboys -3 -110
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110
NFL Week 14 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego, and Arizona to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
After a hugely-profitable week last Sunday, our offshore contacts were very talkative this week. One game that was mentioned by several line-makers was the Jacksonville-Miami match-up. Miami's big win over New England has people talking -- and believing -- that the Dolphins are a solid team. Indeed, about two-thirds of bets are taking the visiting, 6-6 Dolphins, over a 7-5 Jaguar team.
In addition to "betting against the Public" -- there is "reverse line movement" in the NFL marketplace, with CRIS opening at Jax -2.5 and ticking to the key number of Jax -3. This is an indication that "sharps" and "big money" are taking Jacksonville. We like "selling" Miami's big winning over New England. Jacksonville, a solid playoff contender, is undervalued at -2, at home.
Jacksonville -2 -110
San Diego Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys
This should be a great game: two first-place teams! This is potentially a playoff preview -- yet the Public is betting this game like they know the score. They can't believe San Diego is getting +3. This shows how the general Public has the philosophy of "what have you done for me lately?" The Chargers have won seven games in a row -- and have one of the league's better point differentials at +100.
On the other hand, Dallas just lost a tough game to their divisional rivals, the New York Giants. We're going to "buy" the Cowboys after their loss and "sell" the Chargers at their recent "high." The Chargers look like they are currently overvalued, with a huge 80% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) landing on the red-hot Chargers. Interestingly, there are indications that "sharps" are also taking the Cowboys. Although the line has stayed at Dallas -3, the odds have shifted slightly from the generally-available opener of Dallas -3 +105 to Dallas -3-110 -- even with almost all the bets going on San Diego. This is a relatively large move because the line is at the key number of 3.
Dallas Cowboys -3 -110
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings
This is another battle of first-place teams. The Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre have the headlines this year -- but the Cincinnati Bengals have quietly put up a 9-3 record. One of our contacts alerted us that very early sharp money pushed the point spread from its opener of Minnesota -7 down to Minny -6.5 almost immediately. We don't often see such fast action -- but our readers know that we like to follow the "sharps."
Bets are split almost 50/50 -- but we like the "smart money" "reverse line movement." In addition, we like the fact that the Bengals have been mostly "under the radar" while the Vikings have been in the headlines constantly all season -- with Brett Favre leading the Vikings to a 10-2 record. We'll take the Bengals, plus a chunk of points, against a Viking team that showed a chink in its armor last week -- with a loss against a solid Arizona team.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (19-17-1, 52.7%)
Jacksonville -2 -110
Dallas Cowboys -3 -110
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110
