Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
50 Dime --- RAVENS (absolutely buy the 1/2 point down, whether your line is -3, -3 1/2 or even -4. those numbers are all key numbers in the NFL)
BALTIMORE RAVENS --- It's very rare you will see me follow up a 50-dime play on Sunday after I released one on Saturday, so that should tell you how much I love this game. I was absolutely ecstatic when I saw this line released with Baltimore as the favorite. Here we have an undefeated Denver team facing a Ravens team having lost three straight... and the Ravens are the favorites? You bet everyone is on the Broncos, and why shouldn't they be? Every week it seems as if we say, "this is the week Denver loses because they're really not that good." And every week the Broncos seem to prove the critics wrong, winning rather convincingly. Well, now it seems as if everyone has bought into the Denver Broncos... and if that isn't enough to scare you away from the Broncos, nothing will.
The Ravens are clearly better than their 3-3 record would indicate and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time. After starting the season firing on all cylinders (3-0 record), the Ravens have dropped three straight games, all by 6 points or less... so it's not like this team is getting blown off the field --- they've been very competitive in all 6 of their games this season. The two biggest shockers in Baltimore this season has to be the fact that this offense is 100x better than we thought it would be in the beginning of the season, but the defense hasn't been nearly as good as in past years... especially against the pass. What's going to be interesting to watch is the matchup between former Broncos CB Dominique Foxworth and WR Brandon Marshall. Foxworth spent the last few years in Denver, getting to work against Marshall in practice every day. As good as Marshall is, Foxworth knows his tendencies and should be able to do a good job of containing him.
I'm banking on the fact that Baltimore will keep Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter under wraps most of the game, forcing Kyle Orton to beat them on long second and third downs. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL in first down defense, and if they can play up to that level today, the Broncos will struggle on offense like they haven't struggled before. And please don't look at their recent game vs. San Diego as a measuring stick of how far this offense has come. Remember, Eddie Royal scored once on a punt return and once on a kick return, so their point total was a bit fabricated. I'm not saying they can't score on special teams again today, but the Ravens do a much better job than San Diego does in that department. Plus, I'm not sure it's fair to compare the Chargers pathetic defense with Baltimore's.
As for Baltimore's improved offense, it starts and stops with second-year QB Joe Flacco. As good as he was a rookie last year, leading his team to the AFC playoffs, Flacco has been even better this season hitting on 64% of his passes for 1674 yards and 11 TDs. Just the fact that Flacco has shown the ability to move the ball downfield with his arm has opened things up for RB Ray Rice. No one has been better than this guy over the last few weeks and there's nothing Denver's defense has shown me that would indicate they'll be able to slow Rice down. And the great thing about Rice and this offense is... if he's not getting the job done on the ground, they'll just turn him into a receiver out of the backfield --- instant offense. There is absolutely nothing Denver (or any other defense for that matter) will be able to do to stop Rice if he's clicking.
Denver's defense has been good all season and I'm not trying to take anything away from them, but they have yet to see a team that will rely on the screen pass as much as Baltimore has and will today. Now, if Baltimore lines up and tries to run the ball down Denver's throats... it's not going to work. But I have to believe Baltimore coaches and players used the week off to find every weakness this Denver defense has and exploit it.
Again, Baltimore has lost three straight. Can you really, honestly see them losing four in a row? I can't. Baltimore averages over 28 PPG at home while allowing just 14, and this team knows a loss today could prove devastating in the AFC North. Cincy and Pittsburgh are both 5-2 and a loss today for the Ravens would put them at 3-4, a full two games behind both teams. Baltimore is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams from the AFC. Denver is definitely capable of winning another road game here today, but obviously the "Cinderella run" has to end some time, and today is as good as any. Baltimore wins and delivers an ATS cover, 27-17.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----------------GL GUYS