DCI
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Denver 22, BALTIMORE 21
Houston 23, BUFFALO 17
CHICAGO 26, Cleveland 12
DALLAS 28, Seattle 14
DETROIT 28, St. Louis 18
GREEN BAY 26, Minnesota 24
INDIANAPOLIS 29, San Francisco 14
N.Y. JETS 23, Miami 21
TENNESSEE 22, Jacksonville 21
SAN DIEGO 30, Oakland 13
ARIZONA 32, Carolina 12
PHILADELPHIA 26, N.Y. Giants 22
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Denver 22, BALTIMORE 21
Houston 23, BUFFALO 17
CHICAGO 26, Cleveland 12
DALLAS 28, Seattle 14
DETROIT 28, St. Louis 18
GREEN BAY 26, Minnesota 24
INDIANAPOLIS 29, San Francisco 14
N.Y. JETS 23, Miami 21
TENNESSEE 22, Jacksonville 21
SAN DIEGO 30, Oakland 13
ARIZONA 32, Carolina 12
PHILADELPHIA 26, N.Y. Giants 22
RANDALL THE HANDLE
THE BEST
Giants @ Eagles
Line: Philadelphia by 1
Most questioned how the lowly Raiders could have possibly defeated these Eagles two weeks ago. Some of the answers were revealed on Monday night when, despite winning, we observed a Philadelphia squad that is noticeably underwhelming. Wins have come against the Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs and Redskins, a quartet that is currently 5-22 on the year. Giants are stumbling at the moment but there isn’t a better underdog, especially when attempting to avenge a 23-11 playoff loss to this familiar rival. TAKING: NY Giants -1
Texans @ Bills
Line: Houston by 3½
The Bills are more trick than treat. Outyarded significantly in consecutive victories, Buffalo relied mainly upon miscues by opposing quarterbacks Mark Sanchez and Jake Delhomme to provide Bills’ scores. That won’t happen here. Matt Schaub and the Houston offence are in a groove and mistakes are rare. The Texans' 6’5” pivot has tossed 16 touchdowns against only four interceptions in his past six games. Making matters worse will be Buffalo ’s 27th ranked pedestrian offence trying to penetrate this visitor’s improved defensive play. TAKING: Houston –3½
Vikings @ Packers
Line: Green Bay by 3
Let’s see. The Packers have spent the past three weeks with a bye and a pair of effortless wins over the Lions and Browns, by a combined 57-3. Minnesota arrives here after a physical and emotional win over the Ravens only to be followed by a losing battle with punishing Steelers. Teams coming off Pittsburgh are an uninspiring 1-5 against the spread thus far. Oh, there’s another aspect to this one. The quarterback for the Vikes used to play here and if ever the Packers were geared towards a regular-season win, this one stands alone. TAKING: Green Bay –3
THE REST
Browns @ Bears
Line: Chicago by 13½
Dorothy had it right. After being away for nearly a month and suffering consecutive road losses, there will be no place like home for these Bears. Cleveland ranks near the bottom on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. TAKING: Chicago –13½
Broncos @ Ravens
Line: Baltimore by 3½
Win or lose, it would be foolish to deny points being offered here. Denver is undefeated, has not allowed a 2nd half touchdown in its past five games while the usually stout defence of the Ravens appears vulnerable. TAKING: Denver +3½
49ers @ Colts
Line: Indianapolis by 11½
Tough to fade the Colts these days as they continue to dominate all on comers. However, price is slightly inflated due to a combination of Indy’s success and domination by big faves lately. Niners should be better defensively after being embarrassed prior to their bye. TAKING: San Francisco +11½
Dolphins @ Jets
Line: NY Jets by 3½
Not sure of Dolphins’ mental makeup after head-spinning loss to Saints last week. If Tony Sparano can get his squad to move past that one, this one figures to mirror first meeting’s seesaw battle. TAKING: Miami +3½
Rams @ Lions
Line: Detroit by 4
This one will feature 90 guys dressed up as football players. Combined, these two are 1-39 over past 40. How scary is that? In good conscience, we cannot spot points with a Lions team that has enough trouble winning, let alone covering. TAKING: St. Louis +4
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Line: Dallas by 9½
We’ve seen this movie before whereas everything looks like it is rectified in Dallas , only to see it all unfold in subsequent game against some ordinary squad. Seattle needed its bye to nurse back some bodies and it has enough offence to keep this one honest. TAKING: Seattle +9 ½
Raiders @ Chargers
Line: San Diego by 16½
Chargers won’t take this game lightly as they find themselves at .500 and chasing the Broncos in addition to scare in season opener against Raiders. San Diego won 34-7 on this field last year and we expect more of the same. TAKING: San Diego -16½
Jaguars @ Titans
Line: Tennessee by 3
Tennessee fans have been spooked all year. Still winless, the Titans have surrendered 101 points in their last three games. We see no reason to be giving away points to any opponent, let alone one that clobbered you by 20 points in earlier meeting. TAKING: Jacksonville +3
Panthers @ Cardinals
Line: Arizona by 10
Whatever wakeup call the Cardinals heard after third week of the season, appears to be working. Arizona ’s recent play on both sides of the ball has been sound. Don’t expect that to change against error-prone and erratic Panthers. TAKING: Arizona –10
Falcons @ Saints
Line: New Orleans by 10
Divisional games have dominated the Monday Night sched this season. Network folk rely on them to be close and after defeating Saints and losing by just four in split last season, the Falcons are more than capable of meeting that requirement. TAKING: Atlanta +10
THE BEST
Giants @ Eagles
Line: Philadelphia by 1
Most questioned how the lowly Raiders could have possibly defeated these Eagles two weeks ago. Some of the answers were revealed on Monday night when, despite winning, we observed a Philadelphia squad that is noticeably underwhelming. Wins have come against the Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs and Redskins, a quartet that is currently 5-22 on the year. Giants are stumbling at the moment but there isn’t a better underdog, especially when attempting to avenge a 23-11 playoff loss to this familiar rival. TAKING: NY Giants -1
Texans @ Bills
Line: Houston by 3½
The Bills are more trick than treat. Outyarded significantly in consecutive victories, Buffalo relied mainly upon miscues by opposing quarterbacks Mark Sanchez and Jake Delhomme to provide Bills’ scores. That won’t happen here. Matt Schaub and the Houston offence are in a groove and mistakes are rare. The Texans' 6’5” pivot has tossed 16 touchdowns against only four interceptions in his past six games. Making matters worse will be Buffalo ’s 27th ranked pedestrian offence trying to penetrate this visitor’s improved defensive play. TAKING: Houston –3½
Vikings @ Packers
Line: Green Bay by 3
Let’s see. The Packers have spent the past three weeks with a bye and a pair of effortless wins over the Lions and Browns, by a combined 57-3. Minnesota arrives here after a physical and emotional win over the Ravens only to be followed by a losing battle with punishing Steelers. Teams coming off Pittsburgh are an uninspiring 1-5 against the spread thus far. Oh, there’s another aspect to this one. The quarterback for the Vikes used to play here and if ever the Packers were geared towards a regular-season win, this one stands alone. TAKING: Green Bay –3
THE REST
Browns @ Bears
Line: Chicago by 13½
Dorothy had it right. After being away for nearly a month and suffering consecutive road losses, there will be no place like home for these Bears. Cleveland ranks near the bottom on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. TAKING: Chicago –13½
Broncos @ Ravens
Line: Baltimore by 3½
Win or lose, it would be foolish to deny points being offered here. Denver is undefeated, has not allowed a 2nd half touchdown in its past five games while the usually stout defence of the Ravens appears vulnerable. TAKING: Denver +3½
49ers @ Colts
Line: Indianapolis by 11½
Tough to fade the Colts these days as they continue to dominate all on comers. However, price is slightly inflated due to a combination of Indy’s success and domination by big faves lately. Niners should be better defensively after being embarrassed prior to their bye. TAKING: San Francisco +11½
Dolphins @ Jets
Line: NY Jets by 3½
Not sure of Dolphins’ mental makeup after head-spinning loss to Saints last week. If Tony Sparano can get his squad to move past that one, this one figures to mirror first meeting’s seesaw battle. TAKING: Miami +3½
Rams @ Lions
Line: Detroit by 4
This one will feature 90 guys dressed up as football players. Combined, these two are 1-39 over past 40. How scary is that? In good conscience, we cannot spot points with a Lions team that has enough trouble winning, let alone covering. TAKING: St. Louis +4
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Line: Dallas by 9½
We’ve seen this movie before whereas everything looks like it is rectified in Dallas , only to see it all unfold in subsequent game against some ordinary squad. Seattle needed its bye to nurse back some bodies and it has enough offence to keep this one honest. TAKING: Seattle +9 ½
Raiders @ Chargers
Line: San Diego by 16½
Chargers won’t take this game lightly as they find themselves at .500 and chasing the Broncos in addition to scare in season opener against Raiders. San Diego won 34-7 on this field last year and we expect more of the same. TAKING: San Diego -16½
Jaguars @ Titans
Line: Tennessee by 3
Tennessee fans have been spooked all year. Still winless, the Titans have surrendered 101 points in their last three games. We see no reason to be giving away points to any opponent, let alone one that clobbered you by 20 points in earlier meeting. TAKING: Jacksonville +3
Panthers @ Cardinals
Line: Arizona by 10
Whatever wakeup call the Cardinals heard after third week of the season, appears to be working. Arizona ’s recent play on both sides of the ball has been sound. Don’t expect that to change against error-prone and erratic Panthers. TAKING: Arizona –10
Falcons @ Saints
Line: New Orleans by 10
Divisional games have dominated the Monday Night sched this season. Network folk rely on them to be close and after defeating Saints and losing by just four in split last season, the Falcons are more than capable of meeting that requirement. TAKING: Atlanta +10
5DimeSports.com
3.5 DIME PLAY
Houston @ Buffalo
1:00p.m. Sunday
3.5 Dime Play Take Houston -3 (buy the half) First off if you can't get -3, this is a good play at -4, but for the records I am at -3. Andre Johnson, man he is a beast, 16.7 ypc average and 634 yards with 4 TDs. I can't see the Bills not letting him breakout in this one. Plus Slaton has picked it up the past couple of games and that is what they have been missing. With both of them on the field and doing well, we can expect Schaub to add to his 16 passing TDs that he already has. Not to mention Owen Daniels, man this guy is good. Between Johnson and Daniels they account for 9 of Schaub's 16 TDs. This team is becoming more versitle every week. I am definetly not convinced that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid QB in the NFL. He definetly has received a good amount of playing time in the past season, since he played for Carson Palmer when he was out last year. But still, its Ryan Fitzpatrick and right now he's sitting on a 44.7 completion percentage. T.O. did not practice this week and his injury is not listed, but it's not like he has been a factor this season anyways. The Bills have only one rushing TD this season from all of their running backs and that's not going to cut it with Houston's powerfull offense coming to town. Buy the half but not thinking it will really matter.
Trends I Like
BUF are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
BUF are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
HOU are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC.
HOU are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
HOU are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
3.5 DIME PLAY
Houston @ Buffalo
1:00p.m. Sunday
3.5 Dime Play Take Houston -3 (buy the half) First off if you can't get -3, this is a good play at -4, but for the records I am at -3. Andre Johnson, man he is a beast, 16.7 ypc average and 634 yards with 4 TDs. I can't see the Bills not letting him breakout in this one. Plus Slaton has picked it up the past couple of games and that is what they have been missing. With both of them on the field and doing well, we can expect Schaub to add to his 16 passing TDs that he already has. Not to mention Owen Daniels, man this guy is good. Between Johnson and Daniels they account for 9 of Schaub's 16 TDs. This team is becoming more versitle every week. I am definetly not convinced that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid QB in the NFL. He definetly has received a good amount of playing time in the past season, since he played for Carson Palmer when he was out last year. But still, its Ryan Fitzpatrick and right now he's sitting on a 44.7 completion percentage. T.O. did not practice this week and his injury is not listed, but it's not like he has been a factor this season anyways. The Bills have only one rushing TD this season from all of their running backs and that's not going to cut it with Houston's powerfull offense coming to town. Buy the half but not thinking it will really matter.
Trends I Like
BUF are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
BUF are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
HOU are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC.
HOU are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
HOU are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
BRYAN LEONARD
NFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH
( I guess he doesn't like any other NFC East games for the rest of the month in November) ( Hello today is Nov 1)
New York at Philadelphia
You can surely make a case that the Giants are the most overrated team in the NFL. Their five victories were against Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland. The only winning team in the bunch were the Cowboys and the Giants needed a plus four turnover advantage to win that game by just two points. The last two weeks New York lost badly to the Saints and Cardinals, two teams that can put points on the board. In fact, Drew Brees lit up this Giants secondary for 12.0 yards per passing attempt. Considering that the Eagles are averaging 27.2 points per game this season the New York defense could be in for another long night.
Brian Westbrook has been ruled out so this line has moved three points. Really? Isn't Westbrook out every other week or so the past few seasons. Sure he's a good player but the drop-off to McCoy is slight if any at all. Therefore we're getting three additional points based on false perception. Defensively Philadelphia has allowed more than 17 points just once all season. Only one of their last five opponents they faced at home tallied more than 14 points. This is a team with the better players on both sides of the ball yet they are a slight home underdog here. The Eagles lost to the Giants at home each of the past four seasons but this year Philadelphia is the better team.
PLAY PHILADELPHIA
NFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH
( I guess he doesn't like any other NFC East games for the rest of the month in November) ( Hello today is Nov 1)
New York at Philadelphia
You can surely make a case that the Giants are the most overrated team in the NFL. Their five victories were against Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland. The only winning team in the bunch were the Cowboys and the Giants needed a plus four turnover advantage to win that game by just two points. The last two weeks New York lost badly to the Saints and Cardinals, two teams that can put points on the board. In fact, Drew Brees lit up this Giants secondary for 12.0 yards per passing attempt. Considering that the Eagles are averaging 27.2 points per game this season the New York defense could be in for another long night.
Brian Westbrook has been ruled out so this line has moved three points. Really? Isn't Westbrook out every other week or so the past few seasons. Sure he's a good player but the drop-off to McCoy is slight if any at all. Therefore we're getting three additional points based on false perception. Defensively Philadelphia has allowed more than 17 points just once all season. Only one of their last five opponents they faced at home tallied more than 14 points. This is a team with the better players on both sides of the ball yet they are a slight home underdog here. The Eagles lost to the Giants at home each of the past four seasons but this year Philadelphia is the better team.
PLAY PHILADELPHIA
nover sunday 11-1
Sunday's Plays 50 Dime Packers - Maybe the Vikings are better than the Packers. But they won't win this game. Home field usually is worth three or four points. In this matchup it's worth a touchdown.
This is one of the biggest regular-season games in Packer history thanks to Brett Favre returning to Lambeau Field. Many Green Bay fans believe Favre is the biggest traitor since Benedict Arnold for joining the Packers' biggest rival.
There's more to the setting than just a huge vocal, bloodthirsty following, though. The Vikings beat the Packers, 30-23, on carpet in their dome stadium in Week 4. This matchup is on grass.
It's Minnesota's fifth road game already. The Vikings have not had their bye yet. They just got through playing two physical AFC North teams to the wire, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Teams who just played the Steelers usually are extremely beat up. This is reflected in the pointspread mark the following week. Teams are 1-5 against the spread the next week after facing the Steelers.
The Packers had their bye three weeks ago. They followed that up with easy blowout wins against the Lions and Browns last week in which Aaron Rodgers got to rest for much of the fourth quarter.
The time off and easy opponents have allowed the Packers to shore up their offensive line. Mark Tauscher will be available to play if needed. He was last year's starting right tackle until suffering an injury.
Rodgers will negate Jared Allen and the other Vikings pass rushers with quick, short passes. He'll be able to take advantage of the Vkings missing their best secondary player, cornerback Antoine Winfield. There's a huge gap between Winfield and his backup replacements.
As well as Favre is playing this season, the Packers made the right choice in choosing Rodgers. Rodgers is on pace to throw for 30 touchdowns and 4,539 yards.
20 Dime Ravens - The Ravens are the better team, have more urgency and home-field advantage. All of this adds up to being worth more than a field goal.
The Ravens would be a lot higher favorite if this game were played four weeks ago when the Ravens were unbeaten and no one was believing in the Broncos.
Since then, though, the Broncos have stayed unbeaten while the Ravens have lost three in a row. Look at these losses, though. The Ravens were homered in a road loss to the Patriots. They lost to the Bengals on a touchdown pass by Carson Palmer with 27 seconds left and then lost two weeks ago to the Vikings after a valiant fourth-quarter comeback failed because of a missed field goal at the gun that should have been made in a dome stadium.
The Ravens could be 6-0, too, just like the Broncos. Then what would the line be? I guarantee it would be far higher than it is now.
Now the Ravens are coming off a bye. They are 6-1 against the spread following an off week. They desperately need this home game in the ultra-competitive AFC North where they are two games behind in the win column trailing both Pittsburgh and vastly improved Cincinnati. Denver has a commanding three-game lead in the weak AFC West Division. So this matchup is far more important to Baltimore.
Joe Flacco is having a Pro Bowl season. He's already accounted for six fourth-quarter touchdowns. The Broncos are much improved. But they are not an elite team. They beat Cincinnati on a fluke tipped pass. Their other big challenges - Dallas and New England - both came at home.
The Ravens have covered 19 of their last 27 games. They are well-balanced on offense and are tough on defense. They can be intimidating at home. Their major weakness is pass defense, which can't be exploited enough by Kyle Orton, who is a game manager rather than a vertical attack passer.
5 Dime Texans - I have no problem laying a short road number with Houston against Buffalo, a beat-up, dreg of a team with a journeyman, backup caliber quarterback as their starter.
This is the Texans' best team ever. I say that not only because their offense is explosive, but they have playmakers on defense now and their rush defense has greatly improved. Houston has held its last four opponents to an average of 2.6 yards per rush.
The Bills have no vertical passing attack with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback. He ranks with Josh Johnson, JaMarcus Russell and Derek Anderson as the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. Unlike the other three, Fitzpatrick doesn't even have the potential to make big plays.
The Bills need to run the ball. But their offensive line has a cluster injury problem. They are already on their fourth right tackle.
The Texans have a big-play offense. Matt Schuab is having a huge year. Andre Johnson is arguably the best wide receiver in football. He's been cleared to play after suffering a bruised lung last week.
Owen Daniels has emerged as arguably the best receiving tight end in the NFL and Steve Slaton is a dangerous runner out of the backfield and catching swing passes. The Bills rank last in run defense and will be without two of their better run defenders, injured tackle Kyle Williams and safety Donte Whitner.
Buffalo's other safety, Bryan Scott, is doubtful. Don't forget the Bills already have lost cornerback and return man Leodis McKelvin for the season.
5 Dime Jets - This is one of those rare times where I do put stock in NFL revenge. The Dolphins edged the Jets, 31-27, just three weeks ago on Monday night. The Dolphins won when Ronnie Brown ran for a touchdown with 10 seconds left.
The Dolphins embarrassed and befuddled the Jets with their wildcat formation, picking up 110 yards from it. The experience left Jets coach and defensive guru Rex Ryan fuming.
I fully expect the Jets to be much better prepared and highly motivated to stop the Dolphins this time. Calvin Pace was just coming off a four-game suspension then. He's now fully indoctrinated into Ryan's defense and had three sacks last week.
This will be Miami quarterback Chad Henne's first road start. He could be dealing with rain and swirling winds, something Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez already has experienced.
Jerricho Cotchery is expected to play after missing the last couple of games. He's been Sanchez's No. 1 target. His return will strengthen New York's passing attack, especially since deep threat Braylon Edwards has been added.
Miami has a youthful secondary that is banged-up. Linebacker Channing Crowder most likely won't play either because of a shoulder injury. Sanchez can take advantage with his full complement of receivers.
The Dolphins suffered a tough home loss to New Orleans last week blowing a 24-3 lead because they got gassed at the end. They still might not be physically and mentally right, where the Jets go their confidence back on the West Coast with an easy romp against the Raiders.
5 Dime Under Seattle/Dallas - Dallas' defense has gotten better. In their last four games, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 16.2 points. Demarcus Ware has recorded four sacks during the past two weeks.
The Seahawks' battered offensive line, down to their fourth-string left tackle, is going to have problems protecting immobile beat-up quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks lack a ground game to keep the Cowboys' defense honest ranking 28th in rushing.
Seattle only has broken the 19-point barrier once in its last five games.
Damon McIntosh, a 32-year-old street free agent, is the latest being called on to protect Hasselbeck's blind side.
On defense, though, the Seahawks are getting healthier. Jim Mora Jr. is a solid defensive coach and has had two weeks to game plan for the Cowboys. The Seahawks can rush the passer, too, ranking eighth in sacks.
The Seahawks get back on defense their best pass rusher, Patrick Kerney, and their top cover cornerback, Marcus Trufant. Both are scheduled to play after being out with injuries.
Sunday's Plays 50 Dime Packers - Maybe the Vikings are better than the Packers. But they won't win this game. Home field usually is worth three or four points. In this matchup it's worth a touchdown.
This is one of the biggest regular-season games in Packer history thanks to Brett Favre returning to Lambeau Field. Many Green Bay fans believe Favre is the biggest traitor since Benedict Arnold for joining the Packers' biggest rival.
There's more to the setting than just a huge vocal, bloodthirsty following, though. The Vikings beat the Packers, 30-23, on carpet in their dome stadium in Week 4. This matchup is on grass.
It's Minnesota's fifth road game already. The Vikings have not had their bye yet. They just got through playing two physical AFC North teams to the wire, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Teams who just played the Steelers usually are extremely beat up. This is reflected in the pointspread mark the following week. Teams are 1-5 against the spread the next week after facing the Steelers.
The Packers had their bye three weeks ago. They followed that up with easy blowout wins against the Lions and Browns last week in which Aaron Rodgers got to rest for much of the fourth quarter.
The time off and easy opponents have allowed the Packers to shore up their offensive line. Mark Tauscher will be available to play if needed. He was last year's starting right tackle until suffering an injury.
Rodgers will negate Jared Allen and the other Vikings pass rushers with quick, short passes. He'll be able to take advantage of the Vkings missing their best secondary player, cornerback Antoine Winfield. There's a huge gap between Winfield and his backup replacements.
As well as Favre is playing this season, the Packers made the right choice in choosing Rodgers. Rodgers is on pace to throw for 30 touchdowns and 4,539 yards.
20 Dime Ravens - The Ravens are the better team, have more urgency and home-field advantage. All of this adds up to being worth more than a field goal.
The Ravens would be a lot higher favorite if this game were played four weeks ago when the Ravens were unbeaten and no one was believing in the Broncos.
Since then, though, the Broncos have stayed unbeaten while the Ravens have lost three in a row. Look at these losses, though. The Ravens were homered in a road loss to the Patriots. They lost to the Bengals on a touchdown pass by Carson Palmer with 27 seconds left and then lost two weeks ago to the Vikings after a valiant fourth-quarter comeback failed because of a missed field goal at the gun that should have been made in a dome stadium.
The Ravens could be 6-0, too, just like the Broncos. Then what would the line be? I guarantee it would be far higher than it is now.
Now the Ravens are coming off a bye. They are 6-1 against the spread following an off week. They desperately need this home game in the ultra-competitive AFC North where they are two games behind in the win column trailing both Pittsburgh and vastly improved Cincinnati. Denver has a commanding three-game lead in the weak AFC West Division. So this matchup is far more important to Baltimore.
Joe Flacco is having a Pro Bowl season. He's already accounted for six fourth-quarter touchdowns. The Broncos are much improved. But they are not an elite team. They beat Cincinnati on a fluke tipped pass. Their other big challenges - Dallas and New England - both came at home.
The Ravens have covered 19 of their last 27 games. They are well-balanced on offense and are tough on defense. They can be intimidating at home. Their major weakness is pass defense, which can't be exploited enough by Kyle Orton, who is a game manager rather than a vertical attack passer.
5 Dime Texans - I have no problem laying a short road number with Houston against Buffalo, a beat-up, dreg of a team with a journeyman, backup caliber quarterback as their starter.
This is the Texans' best team ever. I say that not only because their offense is explosive, but they have playmakers on defense now and their rush defense has greatly improved. Houston has held its last four opponents to an average of 2.6 yards per rush.
The Bills have no vertical passing attack with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback. He ranks with Josh Johnson, JaMarcus Russell and Derek Anderson as the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. Unlike the other three, Fitzpatrick doesn't even have the potential to make big plays.
The Bills need to run the ball. But their offensive line has a cluster injury problem. They are already on their fourth right tackle.
The Texans have a big-play offense. Matt Schuab is having a huge year. Andre Johnson is arguably the best wide receiver in football. He's been cleared to play after suffering a bruised lung last week.
Owen Daniels has emerged as arguably the best receiving tight end in the NFL and Steve Slaton is a dangerous runner out of the backfield and catching swing passes. The Bills rank last in run defense and will be without two of their better run defenders, injured tackle Kyle Williams and safety Donte Whitner.
Buffalo's other safety, Bryan Scott, is doubtful. Don't forget the Bills already have lost cornerback and return man Leodis McKelvin for the season.
5 Dime Jets - This is one of those rare times where I do put stock in NFL revenge. The Dolphins edged the Jets, 31-27, just three weeks ago on Monday night. The Dolphins won when Ronnie Brown ran for a touchdown with 10 seconds left.
The Dolphins embarrassed and befuddled the Jets with their wildcat formation, picking up 110 yards from it. The experience left Jets coach and defensive guru Rex Ryan fuming.
I fully expect the Jets to be much better prepared and highly motivated to stop the Dolphins this time. Calvin Pace was just coming off a four-game suspension then. He's now fully indoctrinated into Ryan's defense and had three sacks last week.
This will be Miami quarterback Chad Henne's first road start. He could be dealing with rain and swirling winds, something Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez already has experienced.
Jerricho Cotchery is expected to play after missing the last couple of games. He's been Sanchez's No. 1 target. His return will strengthen New York's passing attack, especially since deep threat Braylon Edwards has been added.
Miami has a youthful secondary that is banged-up. Linebacker Channing Crowder most likely won't play either because of a shoulder injury. Sanchez can take advantage with his full complement of receivers.
The Dolphins suffered a tough home loss to New Orleans last week blowing a 24-3 lead because they got gassed at the end. They still might not be physically and mentally right, where the Jets go their confidence back on the West Coast with an easy romp against the Raiders.
5 Dime Under Seattle/Dallas - Dallas' defense has gotten better. In their last four games, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 16.2 points. Demarcus Ware has recorded four sacks during the past two weeks.
The Seahawks' battered offensive line, down to their fourth-string left tackle, is going to have problems protecting immobile beat-up quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks lack a ground game to keep the Cowboys' defense honest ranking 28th in rushing.
Seattle only has broken the 19-point barrier once in its last five games.
Damon McIntosh, a 32-year-old street free agent, is the latest being called on to protect Hasselbeck's blind side.
On defense, though, the Seahawks are getting healthier. Jim Mora Jr. is a solid defensive coach and has had two weeks to game plan for the Cowboys. The Seahawks can rush the passer, too, ranking eighth in sacks.
The Seahawks get back on defense their best pass rusher, Patrick Kerney, and their top cover cornerback, Marcus Trufant. Both are scheduled to play after being out with injuries.
