<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#000066"><th>Handicapper</th> <th>Game Time</th> <th>Game</th> <th>Pick</th> <th>Bet</th> <th>Analysis</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td rowspan="2">Natural Born Thriller</td> <td align="center">Sunday, 11/1/2009</td> <td align="center">New York Giants</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center"> New York Giants S: -1.0 (-115.0) </td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">5</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">1:00pm EST</td> <td align="center">Philadelphia Eagles</td></tr></tbody></table>
Also has RAMS +3.5
2-1 yesterday, 3-1 this week.
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">1:00pm EST</td> <td align="center">Philadelphia Eagles</td></tr></tbody></table>
Also has RAMS +3.5
2-1 yesterday, 3-1 this week.
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Packers
2. 50,000♦ Bills
1. Packers- To the people thinking their getting "value" with the Vikings plus the points here, I have one thing to say: If it looks to good to be true, it probably is! Guys, to say this is the biggest game of the Aaron Rodgers era is not an under-statement, and I fully expect the Packers signal caller to shine in his team's victory today, and here's why:
Let's start with the single biggest problem the Packers had in their last meeting: Protecting Aaron Rodgers. First of all, the possible return of stud LT Chad Clifton is the answer to Jared Allen, who terrorized Rodgers the last time out. Also, the fact the Packers did not allow a sack at Cleveland is a very positive sign. True, its just the Browns defense, but regardless, this young o-line needed an effort like that one after giving up 25 sacks in their first 5 games - and I believe they can build off that today. Rookie LT T.J. Lang has improved in every game he's played, so even if Clifton doesn't play, I expect the rook to step up after an embarassment the last time facing Allen.
Second, say what you will about the Vikings defense, but against a pass-happy team like the Packers, the loss of CB Antione Winfield is HUGE. He was their best cover corner, and you better believe Rodgers will be looking to throw early and often against this short-handed secondary. Also, after torching Detroit and Clevelan in back-to-back games, Rodges comes into this contest more confident than ever in his offense. Yes, they were two NFL doormats, but fact is this offense needed to work out the kinks in protection, and they did just that.
Third, if the Packers lose this game, the Vikings NFC North lead becomes a real issue. Needless to say, that's big-time motivation for a team that came into this season with a lot of expectations. Everyone knows this is a rivalry game, and both teams want to win, but CLEARLY this game is far more important to the Packers, who are seeking revenge and trying to stay alive in the divisional race.
Finally, trends a plenty pointing away from Minnesota and towards the Pack, as the Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their L7 against winning teams, and just 3-7 ATS in their L10 as a dog! Green Bay is 4-1 ATS over their L5 as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their L10 in divisional play! In the end, you may think you're getting a bargain with the Vikings at this price, but the Packers learned their lesson, and I fully expect FAR better protection this time around. Given time, Rodgers will take care of business (especially with Winfield out)!
Take the Packers over the Vikings as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Bills- First thing first, FAR too many bettors are enamored with the Texans in this one, as I see plenty of issues arising for them this afternoon in Buffalo. We all know stud WR Andre Johnson is out, and to say that's a big blow just doesn't cover it. His absence changes the entire gameplan for Buffalo and will allow them to keep their coverages honest (without rolling to one side). Make no mistake, this will not be an easy game for Schaub and company.
While I'm not fan of either Bills quarterback, Edwards or Fitzpatrick, there's no doubt in my mind Fitzpatrick needs to be starting. Even before the concussion, Edwards had lost all of his confidence, and it showed, losing 9 of the L12 games he took the bulk of the snaps. Fitzpatrick meanwhile has not only won 5 straight games as a starter, but he looked good (a.k.a. better than Edwards) in the Bills solid 20-9 win at Carolina last week. It wasn't a huge stat line at all, but he did the one thing that Edwards couldn't do: avoid turnovers! Look for another ball-controll offensive gameplan today, and that should work VERY much in the Bills favor.
The biggest disparity between these two teams comes on the defensive side, where the Texans are extremely vulnerable on the road, allowing 25 ppg on 361 total yards! The Bills meanwhile are a typically stingy AFC East team, allowing 17 ppg on 308 total yards... Not great, but good enough to cover against a Johnson-less Texans offense.
Bottom line, with a HUGE majority of the betting public on the Texans, I'm very much inclined to go the other way here. Texans may be a high-powered offense, but in this particular case (no Johnson, on the road, against a Bills team coming off back-to-back wins), I can easily see them losing outright here. I still want you to take the points, but rest-assured, the majority of the betting public is DEAD wrong about this contest. Buffalo grabs the cash Sunday afternoon at home!
Take the Bills plus the points over the Texans in this NFL match up.
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Packers
2. 50,000♦ Bills
1. Packers- To the people thinking their getting "value" with the Vikings plus the points here, I have one thing to say: If it looks to good to be true, it probably is! Guys, to say this is the biggest game of the Aaron Rodgers era is not an under-statement, and I fully expect the Packers signal caller to shine in his team's victory today, and here's why:
Let's start with the single biggest problem the Packers had in their last meeting: Protecting Aaron Rodgers. First of all, the possible return of stud LT Chad Clifton is the answer to Jared Allen, who terrorized Rodgers the last time out. Also, the fact the Packers did not allow a sack at Cleveland is a very positive sign. True, its just the Browns defense, but regardless, this young o-line needed an effort like that one after giving up 25 sacks in their first 5 games - and I believe they can build off that today. Rookie LT T.J. Lang has improved in every game he's played, so even if Clifton doesn't play, I expect the rook to step up after an embarassment the last time facing Allen.
Second, say what you will about the Vikings defense, but against a pass-happy team like the Packers, the loss of CB Antione Winfield is HUGE. He was their best cover corner, and you better believe Rodgers will be looking to throw early and often against this short-handed secondary. Also, after torching Detroit and Clevelan in back-to-back games, Rodges comes into this contest more confident than ever in his offense. Yes, they were two NFL doormats, but fact is this offense needed to work out the kinks in protection, and they did just that.
Third, if the Packers lose this game, the Vikings NFC North lead becomes a real issue. Needless to say, that's big-time motivation for a team that came into this season with a lot of expectations. Everyone knows this is a rivalry game, and both teams want to win, but CLEARLY this game is far more important to the Packers, who are seeking revenge and trying to stay alive in the divisional race.
Finally, trends a plenty pointing away from Minnesota and towards the Pack, as the Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their L7 against winning teams, and just 3-7 ATS in their L10 as a dog! Green Bay is 4-1 ATS over their L5 as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their L10 in divisional play! In the end, you may think you're getting a bargain with the Vikings at this price, but the Packers learned their lesson, and I fully expect FAR better protection this time around. Given time, Rodgers will take care of business (especially with Winfield out)!
Take the Packers over the Vikings as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Bills- First thing first, FAR too many bettors are enamored with the Texans in this one, as I see plenty of issues arising for them this afternoon in Buffalo. We all know stud WR Andre Johnson is out, and to say that's a big blow just doesn't cover it. His absence changes the entire gameplan for Buffalo and will allow them to keep their coverages honest (without rolling to one side). Make no mistake, this will not be an easy game for Schaub and company.
While I'm not fan of either Bills quarterback, Edwards or Fitzpatrick, there's no doubt in my mind Fitzpatrick needs to be starting. Even before the concussion, Edwards had lost all of his confidence, and it showed, losing 9 of the L12 games he took the bulk of the snaps. Fitzpatrick meanwhile has not only won 5 straight games as a starter, but he looked good (a.k.a. better than Edwards) in the Bills solid 20-9 win at Carolina last week. It wasn't a huge stat line at all, but he did the one thing that Edwards couldn't do: avoid turnovers! Look for another ball-controll offensive gameplan today, and that should work VERY much in the Bills favor.
The biggest disparity between these two teams comes on the defensive side, where the Texans are extremely vulnerable on the road, allowing 25 ppg on 361 total yards! The Bills meanwhile are a typically stingy AFC East team, allowing 17 ppg on 308 total yards... Not great, but good enough to cover against a Johnson-less Texans offense.
Bottom line, with a HUGE majority of the betting public on the Texans, I'm very much inclined to go the other way here. Texans may be a high-powered offense, but in this particular case (no Johnson, on the road, against a Bills team coming off back-to-back wins), I can easily see them losing outright here. I still want you to take the points, but rest-assured, the majority of the betting public is DEAD wrong about this contest. Buffalo grabs the cash Sunday afternoon at home!
Take the Bills plus the points over the Texans in this NFL match up.
Tuley The Tout
Browns +13.5 vs. Bears (except faves to be steam again this week, waiting for +14)
Vikings +3 vs. Packers (Favre beat former team already, can do at Lambeau, let's get +3.5)
49ers +12 vs. Colts (ready to jump back in front of this Indy train, should get at least +13)
Seahawks +9.5 vs. Cowboys (Dallas whipped Atlanta so I was wrong there, but firing back at +10 or higher)
Jaguars +3 EV vs. Titans (added Thursday...Jags beat Titans 37-17 in Week 4, albeit at home)
Falcons +10.5 vs. Saints (Saints playing great, but double-digit faves over this division rival???, wait for peak)
Browns +13.5 vs. Bears (except faves to be steam again this week, waiting for +14)
Vikings +3 vs. Packers (Favre beat former team already, can do at Lambeau, let's get +3.5)
49ers +12 vs. Colts (ready to jump back in front of this Indy train, should get at least +13)
Seahawks +9.5 vs. Cowboys (Dallas whipped Atlanta so I was wrong there, but firing back at +10 or higher)
Jaguars +3 EV vs. Titans (added Thursday...Jags beat Titans 37-17 in Week 4, albeit at home)
Falcons +10.5 vs. Saints (Saints playing great, but double-digit faves over this division rival???, wait for peak)
SPORTSWAGERS
NY Giants –1 over PHILADELPHIA
Based on talent and situation the G-Men should absolutely bury this rival. In terms of this line, the best thing that could’ve happened last week did, as the Giants lost at home to the Cardinals while the Eagles built a 20-point half-time lead over the Skins en route to a rather easy 13-point victory. That win combined with the Giants loss has these two battling for first place in the NFC East but in terms of talent, they’re not close and it’s not in the Eagle favor. Philly has played one quality opponent this season and was flattened 48-22 by the Saints. It’s other games came against a bunch of compete dregs (Carolina, K.C., Cleveland, Oakland and Washington) and after watching them perform against Washington on Monday night I can now understand how they lost to Oakland. Donovan McNab looks awful, as he keeps missing open receivers with brutal throws but he and the teams poor play has been masked by a 4-2 record against some bad opposition. In fact, on Monday night the Eagles scored three TD’s but they were all lucky, as one was a pick-6, one was a 70-yard run and the other was a 52-yard bomb. The Eagles had great field position all night yet they did not run a single play inside the red-zone because they could not get there against a bad, bad football team. The Giants are livid and hungry after consecutive losses. They, too, were crushed by New Orleans but unlike the Eagles, they beat Oakland 44-7. Philly does not have a quality win this season and based on their play it’s unlikely they’ll get one, as the Eagles are the most overrated team in the business and will be exposed as another bad football team here. Play: NY Giants –1 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
JACKSONVILLE/Tennessee under 45
If you’re a regular reader of this section than you know I’m not a totals guy but frankly, this line looks so out of whack that it has to be considered a must play. Jeff Fisher’s hand is forced in that after opening the year 0-6 and with no shot at making the playoffs, Fisher has been pressured into switching QB’s and he has obliged. Enter Vince Young with his fragile mind and limited talents. Fisher will be running the ball all game, as it’s extremely unlikely that he’ll let Young go to the air much at all. He’ll use his power running game and will throw only when absolutely necessary. The Jags main weapon is also the run, as Maurice Drew Jones is the guy they keep handing the ball over to and he keeps delivering. These two are bitter rivals and Fisher knows that his only chance of a win is to play great defense and the Titans are very capable of that. Sure, both defenses are ranked near the bottom, however, stats can be misleading. The Titans have played Indy, New England, Houston and Pittsburgh and that quartet is capable of shredding anyone. The Jags have encountered Arizona, Indy, Seattle and Houston and those are four can score as well. This total is based on the poor defensive rankings of both sides. Thing is, both have been poor vs the pass and this game will be anything but an aerial attack. Also, these two met a few weeks back and the Jags crushed the Titans 37-17. The Titans threw the ball 48 times that day and got blown out, which is more reason to believe that Fisher will stick to the ground game. In a rare total play, this one stays way, way under. Play: Jacksonville/Tennessee under 45 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Jacksonville +1.40 over TENNESSEE
I’m not really a big fan of playing the side and total in the same game but after mulling over this one I just can’t pass it up. This one doesn’t need a lot of explanation. The bottom line is we’re getting points against Vince Young and that’s all there is to it. This guy has been sitting and pouting on the bench for over a year, nobody on the team sees him as a leader, especially after he went ape-shit after being benched last season. The only reason he’s even on the bench is because the Titans are paying him a hefty salary and next year it goes up to 14.2M. In fact, Fisher didn’t even want to start VY but the owner of the team, Bud Adams, forced Fisher to make the change. Fisher let the quarterbacks know the forced decision on Thursday and VY took all the first-team snaps. This is an 0-6 team that is coming off a bye week and one has to wonder if the players even want to come back. They have no leader, no wins and no motivation. The Jags beat them earlier 37-17 and that’s when the Titans were not out of it yet. This game is now in Tennessee but the result could be even worse. Keep the points. Play: Jacksonville +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
NY Giants –1 over PHILADELPHIA
Based on talent and situation the G-Men should absolutely bury this rival. In terms of this line, the best thing that could’ve happened last week did, as the Giants lost at home to the Cardinals while the Eagles built a 20-point half-time lead over the Skins en route to a rather easy 13-point victory. That win combined with the Giants loss has these two battling for first place in the NFC East but in terms of talent, they’re not close and it’s not in the Eagle favor. Philly has played one quality opponent this season and was flattened 48-22 by the Saints. It’s other games came against a bunch of compete dregs (Carolina, K.C., Cleveland, Oakland and Washington) and after watching them perform against Washington on Monday night I can now understand how they lost to Oakland. Donovan McNab looks awful, as he keeps missing open receivers with brutal throws but he and the teams poor play has been masked by a 4-2 record against some bad opposition. In fact, on Monday night the Eagles scored three TD’s but they were all lucky, as one was a pick-6, one was a 70-yard run and the other was a 52-yard bomb. The Eagles had great field position all night yet they did not run a single play inside the red-zone because they could not get there against a bad, bad football team. The Giants are livid and hungry after consecutive losses. They, too, were crushed by New Orleans but unlike the Eagles, they beat Oakland 44-7. Philly does not have a quality win this season and based on their play it’s unlikely they’ll get one, as the Eagles are the most overrated team in the business and will be exposed as another bad football team here. Play: NY Giants –1 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
JACKSONVILLE/Tennessee under 45
If you’re a regular reader of this section than you know I’m not a totals guy but frankly, this line looks so out of whack that it has to be considered a must play. Jeff Fisher’s hand is forced in that after opening the year 0-6 and with no shot at making the playoffs, Fisher has been pressured into switching QB’s and he has obliged. Enter Vince Young with his fragile mind and limited talents. Fisher will be running the ball all game, as it’s extremely unlikely that he’ll let Young go to the air much at all. He’ll use his power running game and will throw only when absolutely necessary. The Jags main weapon is also the run, as Maurice Drew Jones is the guy they keep handing the ball over to and he keeps delivering. These two are bitter rivals and Fisher knows that his only chance of a win is to play great defense and the Titans are very capable of that. Sure, both defenses are ranked near the bottom, however, stats can be misleading. The Titans have played Indy, New England, Houston and Pittsburgh and that quartet is capable of shredding anyone. The Jags have encountered Arizona, Indy, Seattle and Houston and those are four can score as well. This total is based on the poor defensive rankings of both sides. Thing is, both have been poor vs the pass and this game will be anything but an aerial attack. Also, these two met a few weeks back and the Jags crushed the Titans 37-17. The Titans threw the ball 48 times that day and got blown out, which is more reason to believe that Fisher will stick to the ground game. In a rare total play, this one stays way, way under. Play: Jacksonville/Tennessee under 45 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Jacksonville +1.40 over TENNESSEE
I’m not really a big fan of playing the side and total in the same game but after mulling over this one I just can’t pass it up. This one doesn’t need a lot of explanation. The bottom line is we’re getting points against Vince Young and that’s all there is to it. This guy has been sitting and pouting on the bench for over a year, nobody on the team sees him as a leader, especially after he went ape-shit after being benched last season. The only reason he’s even on the bench is because the Titans are paying him a hefty salary and next year it goes up to 14.2M. In fact, Fisher didn’t even want to start VY but the owner of the team, Bud Adams, forced Fisher to make the change. Fisher let the quarterbacks know the forced decision on Thursday and VY took all the first-team snaps. This is an 0-6 team that is coming off a bye week and one has to wonder if the players even want to come back. They have no leader, no wins and no motivation. The Jags beat them earlier 37-17 and that’s when the Titans were not out of it yet. This game is now in Tennessee but the result could be even worse. Keep the points. Play: Jacksonville +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
