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Service Plays Sunday 11/01/09
- Thread starter Can'tPickaWinner2
- Start date
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
11 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta
*NEW ORLEANS 44 - Atlanta 21
Lost amid the off season hoopla of acquiring All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez was the fact that Atlanta saw its defense ravaged by free-agent defections, forcing a significant re-tooling project for the stop unit by HC Mike Smith. And last week’s one-sided loss at Dallas indicates the Falcs might no longer be able to camouflage those deficiencies, especially with injuries piling up (CB Brian Williams the latest casualty) and the DL lacking a true run-stuffer after stout rookie DT Peria Jerry’s season-ending knee injury and Grady Jackson’s FA departure. Those shortcomings will likely be exploited by Drew Brees and red-hot New Orleans bunch that maintained its perfect SU and spread mark (6-0!) after overcoming 21-point deficit at Miami. And even the upgraded Saints “D” sharing in the fun with 2 more TDs last week (that’s now 5 this season!).
11 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta
*NEW ORLEANS 44 - Atlanta 21
Lost amid the off season hoopla of acquiring All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez was the fact that Atlanta saw its defense ravaged by free-agent defections, forcing a significant re-tooling project for the stop unit by HC Mike Smith. And last week’s one-sided loss at Dallas indicates the Falcs might no longer be able to camouflage those deficiencies, especially with injuries piling up (CB Brian Williams the latest casualty) and the DL lacking a true run-stuffer after stout rookie DT Peria Jerry’s season-ending knee injury and Grady Jackson’s FA departure. Those shortcomings will likely be exploited by Drew Brees and red-hot New Orleans bunch that maintained its perfect SU and spread mark (6-0!) after overcoming 21-point deficit at Miami. And even the upgraded Saints “D” sharing in the fun with 2 more TDs last week (that’s now 5 this season!).
The Gold Sheet
NFL
KEY RELEASES
DENVER by 7 over Baltimore
SEATTLE by 1 over Dallas
OVER THE TOTAL in the Atlanta-New Orleans game
Denver 23 - BALTIMORE 16—Maybe it took last week’s “bye” to slow
Denver’s early-season momentum. Then again, maybe not. Meanwhile,
Baltimore finding ways to lose close games, and there’s increasing chatter in
AFC North circles about the Ravens’ defensive slowdown (including Ray Lewis’
diminishing pursuit skills), perhaps exacerbated by the quicker game tempo set
by maturing Joe Flacco and the offense. Smallish Raven CBs Foxworth &
Washington in tough vs. Kyle Orton’s big targets, WR Marshall & TE Scheffler
(often flanking out wide). Insiders raving about Denver halftime
adjustments...especially zero 2nd-half TDs allowed in last five games!
(06-DENVER -4' 13-3...SR: Baltimore 4-3)
CHICAGO 30 - Cleveland 9—Like an oasis on Lake Shore Drive, Cleveland
is showing up at just the right time for reeling Chicago, licking its wounds after
a pair of road defeats, including its 45-10 embarrassment last week in Cincy.
The Browns’ offense still better than even money not to find the end zone (which
it hasn’t in 4 of 7 games TY, and 10 of 13 dating to late ‘08), especially with
Derek Anderson (23 of 70 the past three weeks!) posting worse passing
numbers than Terrelle Pryor! So the mounting Bear defensive injury list
probably not a major concern, at least this week. It’s time, however, for Jay
Cutler (10 picks already) to nip the fast-growing Windy City criticism in the bud.
(2009 Preseason: Chicago -2' beat Cleveland 26-23 at Chicago)
(05-CLEVELAND -3 20-10...SR: Cleveland 9-4)
Houston 23 - BUFFALO 13—It’s a good thing the NFL isn’t Dancing with
the Stars, as Buffalo hasn’t been penalized for its lack of style points despite its
back-to-back wins. But the Bills have little room for error with an OL that’s
sometimes going with four first-year players and managed to survive vs. Jets &
Panthers (gaining only 167 yards vs. the latter) and with backup QB Ryan
Fitzpatrick subbing for concussion-recovering Trent Edwards. If offensive
competence means anything, it’s advantage Houston, especially with Matt
Schaub (8 TDP last 3 weeks) posting Pro Bowl-like numbers (but check status
of star WR Andre Johnson, pulled in 4th Q with chest injury vs. 49ers last week).
(06-Buff +2' 24-21...SR: Buff. 3-1)
GREEN BAY 31 - Minnesota 23—Certainly can’t get carried away by recent
wins over the Lions and Browns, but improved Green Bay defensive efforts vs.
those two (who combined for only 3 points) suggest the Packer stop unit
absorbing more of new defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ 3-4 principles.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers finally enjoyed his first sack-less game this year in
Cleveland. Of course, Minnesota offers a stiffer challenge, and doubt Ryan
Grant (51 YR in first meeting) rumbles vs. stout Viking rush defense after
gaining 148 vs. Brownies. But Rodgers (384 YP in first meeting) should be able
to pick on Minny secondary that might be without key CB Antoine Winfield
(foot). What sort of reception will Brett Favre get in his return to Lambeau Field?
(09-MINN. 30-G. Bay 23...M.22-19 G.17/82 M.30/63 G.26/37/1/342 M.24/32/0/271 M.1 G.1)
(08-G.BAY 24-Min. 19...G.21-15 M.33/187 G.27/139 G.18/22/0/178 M.16/35/1/168 G.0 M.0)
(08-MIN. 28-G. Bay 27...M.18-12 M.41/220 G.18/74 M.15/28/3/141 G.15/26/0/110 M.0 G.0)
(09-MINN. -3' 30-23; 08-G. BAY -2' 24-19, MINN. -2' 28-27...SR: Green Bay 49-47-1)
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - San Francisco 19—Mike Singletary has squeezed as
much as he could out of Shaun Hill’s limitations at QB, so no surprise if S.F.
makes the switch to Alex Smith after he rallied the 49ers admirably at Houston.
Indy and its 15-game reg.-season win streak presents an even tougher
challenge, especially with its defense back to full strength with CB Hayden & S
Sanders returning. But The Colts are beating up a lot of flawed foes lately, and
if 49ers don’t fall way behind as they did vs. the Texans, they won’t have to
abandon the potential infantry diversion provided by RB Gore. Expect WR
Michael Crabtree (5 catches in debut) to make more of an impact. Note Mike
Singletary’s impressive spread mark (5-0-1) last 6 as dog.
(05-Ind. -15' 28-3...SR: Indianapolis 23-18)
Miami 20 - NY JETS 17—After Miami exploited the N.Y. defense at key
times with its retro single-wing-style “wildcat” variations (sometimes four RBs,
two ends, no QB), Jets’ HC Rex Ryan termed his team’s performance a
“complete embarrassment” and “horrendous day for our defense.” He wants
atonement. But let’s not forget that the game marked the coming of age of
Dolphins 1½-year vet QB Chad Henne, whose 20 for 26 and 2 TDs passing were
much needed. Now, Ryan’s defense has lost its “Clydesdale” in the middle
(360-pound NT Kris Jenkins) and also might bewithout LB Bart Scott while his
“O” is now without its thoroughbred in the backfield (RB Leon Washington).
(09-MIAMI 31-Jets 27...M.23-20 M.36/151 N.30/138 M.21/28/0/262 N.12/24/0/171 M.0 N.0)
(08-Jets 20-MIAMI 14...M.18-15 N.31/112 M.17/49 M.26/43/1/228 N.15/22/0/181 N.1 M.0)
(08-Miami 24-JETS 17...M.18-16 M.29/126 N.21/80 N.21/41/3/251 M.22/31/0/193 M.1 N.1)
(09-MIAMI +3 31-27; 08-NY Jets -3 20-14, Miami +2' 24-17...SR: NY Jets 46-41-1)
St. Louis 20 - DETROIT 17—How quickly things change! The Lions, 1-5 TY
and 1-22 their last 23 games, are now wearing the target of the hunted (!!!) vs.
the 0-7 Rams, winless in their last 17. Detroit was last favored in 2008’s season
opener vs. the Falcons in Matt Ryan’s first start, which the Lions lost. Detroit,
whose losing streak reached 19 before Washington arrived in town a month
ago, is hoping power-armed rookie QB Matthew Stafford (knee; out last two
games) and extra-dimension WR Calvin Johnson (22 recs.; out last game with
knee problem) are both near 100% can both return. Without that certainty,
prefer to side with veteran Rams’ duo of RB Steven Jackson & QB Marc Bulger.
(06-ST. LOUIS -5' 41-34...SR: St. Louis 41-38-1)
Seattle 23 - DALLAS 22—Few teams needed a bye as much as
Seattle, which couldn’t escape injuries in its first six games. Now, the rested
and somewhat-healthier Seahawks are in great need of a victory to make the
second half of their season relevant. Veteran QB Hasselbeck (7 TDs, 3 ints.)
and his fine cast of receivers (wideouts Burleson, Houshmandzadeh & Branch,
plus TE Carlson) have a great chance to exploit the tackling problems that have
arisen time and again in the Dallas back seven. And RB Julius Jones (290 YR)
eager for a shot at his former teammates. This one won’t come easy for Dallas;
maybe it won’t come at all.
(08-DALLAS 34-Sea. 9...D.24-19 D.24/116 S.23/80 D.22/34/1/331 S.22/38/1/242 D.0 S.1)
(08-DALLAS -12 34-9...SR: Dallas 7-5)
SAN DIEGO 31 - Oakland 10—Revenge game for Oakland, whose cover in
the first meeting improved the Raiders’ pointspread record vs. S.D. to 2-11 the
last 13 meetings. It was in that contest that the Chargers had three starting
OLmen leave the game with injuries. Now, S.D. appears to be stabilizing (after
a third straight poor start to the season), as LaDainian Tomlinson & Shawne
Merriman much quicker following early injury recovery. And the differential in
QB competence in this one is measured in parsecs. (Will the Raiders turn to
Gradkowski?).
(09-S. Diego 24-OAK. 20...19-19 O.32/148 S.23/77 S.24/36/1/240 O.14/32/2/218 S.1 O.1)
(08-S. Diego 28-OAK. 18...S.18-15 S.30/141 O.23/72 O.22/37/1/251 S.14/25/2/154 S.0 O.1)
(08-S. DIEGO 34-Oak. 7...S.17-9 S.46/158 O.16/54 S.10/22/0/214 O.17/30/3/109 S.1 O.1)
(09-S. Diego -9' 24-20; 08-S. Diego -8 28-18, S. DIEGO -10 34-7...SR: Oakland 55-43-2)
Jacksonville 27 - TENNESSEE 24—Titan coach Jeff Fisher increased the
pressure on himself with his dubious decision to wear Peyton Manning’s jersey
at a fund-raising event honoring Tony Dungy, saying he just “wanted to feel like
a winner.” Perhaps not a good idea for a coach whose team has lost 8 straight
games (1-7 vs. the spread), was humiliated 59-0 in its last start, and is -10 in
turnovers TY. Moreover, Tennessee being criticized for its lack of situation
substitution on defense, even though its limited flexibility due to key DB injuries
(check status of CB Cortland Finnegan & nickel-back Vincent Fuller) certainly
a factor. Not a team that should be laying points vs. the productive Jacksonville
Maurice Jones-Drew (8 TDR) & David Garrard duo.
(09-JACK. 37-Tenn. 17...J.27-19 J.30/137 T.19/95 J.27/37/0/305 T.29/48/2/284 J.1 T.1)
(08-TENN. 17-Jack. 10...T.14-13 T.32/137 J.17/33 T.14/24/2/172 J.23/35/2/156 T.0 J.1)
(08-Tenn. 24-JACK. 14...J.17-13 J.32/140 T.33/114 T.13/23/1/230 J.13/30/1/117 T.0 J.0)
(09-JACK. +3 37-17; 08-TENN. +3 17-10, Tenn. -2' 24-14...SR: Tennessee 17-13)
ARIZONA 28 - Carolina 13—Rematch of NFC Divisional Round playoff
game of LY, when Jake Delhomme played Santa Claus with six giveaways!
With Arizona smothering the run TY (No. 1 thru Week Six), Carolina can’t count
on getting its preferred overland attack rolling. And Delhomme (13 ints., 1 lost
fumble in 2009) still laboring mightily. If Panthers can’t possess the ball, Kurt
Warner & his receivers should dominate. Rookie RB Beanie Wells’ 67 YR vs. the
NYG defense an immensely positive sign. Carolina just 2-9 last 11 as a road dog!
(08-CAR. 27-Ariz. 23...A.25-22 C.29/113 A.14/50 A.36/51/1/375 C.20/28/0/238 C.1 A.1)
(08-Ariz. 33-CAR. 13...A.21-16 A.43/145 C.15/75 A.21/32/1/215 C.17/34/5/194 A.0 C.1)
(08-CAROLINA -4 27-23, Arizona +10 33-13 (Playoffs)...SR: Carolina 6-3)
N.Y. Giants 21 - PHILADELPHIA 16—G-men have covered their last four
visits to “The Linc,” and their willingness to run the ball should serve them well
once again. Eagles hoping the acquisition of Will Witherspoon from the Rams
can solve their MLB problems. The two key questions here seem to be whether
N.Y.’s up-the-field pass rush can disrupt Donovan McNabb enough to keep him
from exploiting his high-quality targets, and whether Eli Manning can shake his
mini-slump to help out his youthful, inconsistent WRs. We’ll trust the NYG DL
vs. the Philly OL (six sacks two weeks ago in Oakland).
(08-Nyg 36-PHI. 31...N.26-17 N.45/219 P.21/106 P.17/36/1/194 N.17/31/1/182 N.1 P.1)
(08-Phi. 20-GIANTS 14...P.24-14 P.40/144 N.24/88 P.19/30/0/187 N.13/27/0/123 P.0 N.0)
(08-Phi. 23-NYG 11...P.20-16 N.32/138 P.28/59 P.22/40/2/217 N.15/29/2/169 P.0 N.1)
(08-Gia. +3 36-31, Phi +6' 20-14, Phi. +4 23-11 (Playoffs)...SR: NY Giants 81-69-2)
NFL
KEY RELEASES
DENVER by 7 over Baltimore
SEATTLE by 1 over Dallas
OVER THE TOTAL in the Atlanta-New Orleans game
Denver 23 - BALTIMORE 16—Maybe it took last week’s “bye” to slow
Denver’s early-season momentum. Then again, maybe not. Meanwhile,
Baltimore finding ways to lose close games, and there’s increasing chatter in
AFC North circles about the Ravens’ defensive slowdown (including Ray Lewis’
diminishing pursuit skills), perhaps exacerbated by the quicker game tempo set
by maturing Joe Flacco and the offense. Smallish Raven CBs Foxworth &
Washington in tough vs. Kyle Orton’s big targets, WR Marshall & TE Scheffler
(often flanking out wide). Insiders raving about Denver halftime
adjustments...especially zero 2nd-half TDs allowed in last five games!
(06-DENVER -4' 13-3...SR: Baltimore 4-3)
CHICAGO 30 - Cleveland 9—Like an oasis on Lake Shore Drive, Cleveland
is showing up at just the right time for reeling Chicago, licking its wounds after
a pair of road defeats, including its 45-10 embarrassment last week in Cincy.
The Browns’ offense still better than even money not to find the end zone (which
it hasn’t in 4 of 7 games TY, and 10 of 13 dating to late ‘08), especially with
Derek Anderson (23 of 70 the past three weeks!) posting worse passing
numbers than Terrelle Pryor! So the mounting Bear defensive injury list
probably not a major concern, at least this week. It’s time, however, for Jay
Cutler (10 picks already) to nip the fast-growing Windy City criticism in the bud.
(2009 Preseason: Chicago -2' beat Cleveland 26-23 at Chicago)
(05-CLEVELAND -3 20-10...SR: Cleveland 9-4)
Houston 23 - BUFFALO 13—It’s a good thing the NFL isn’t Dancing with
the Stars, as Buffalo hasn’t been penalized for its lack of style points despite its
back-to-back wins. But the Bills have little room for error with an OL that’s
sometimes going with four first-year players and managed to survive vs. Jets &
Panthers (gaining only 167 yards vs. the latter) and with backup QB Ryan
Fitzpatrick subbing for concussion-recovering Trent Edwards. If offensive
competence means anything, it’s advantage Houston, especially with Matt
Schaub (8 TDP last 3 weeks) posting Pro Bowl-like numbers (but check status
of star WR Andre Johnson, pulled in 4th Q with chest injury vs. 49ers last week).
(06-Buff +2' 24-21...SR: Buff. 3-1)
GREEN BAY 31 - Minnesota 23—Certainly can’t get carried away by recent
wins over the Lions and Browns, but improved Green Bay defensive efforts vs.
those two (who combined for only 3 points) suggest the Packer stop unit
absorbing more of new defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ 3-4 principles.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers finally enjoyed his first sack-less game this year in
Cleveland. Of course, Minnesota offers a stiffer challenge, and doubt Ryan
Grant (51 YR in first meeting) rumbles vs. stout Viking rush defense after
gaining 148 vs. Brownies. But Rodgers (384 YP in first meeting) should be able
to pick on Minny secondary that might be without key CB Antoine Winfield
(foot). What sort of reception will Brett Favre get in his return to Lambeau Field?
(09-MINN. 30-G. Bay 23...M.22-19 G.17/82 M.30/63 G.26/37/1/342 M.24/32/0/271 M.1 G.1)
(08-G.BAY 24-Min. 19...G.21-15 M.33/187 G.27/139 G.18/22/0/178 M.16/35/1/168 G.0 M.0)
(08-MIN. 28-G. Bay 27...M.18-12 M.41/220 G.18/74 M.15/28/3/141 G.15/26/0/110 M.0 G.0)
(09-MINN. -3' 30-23; 08-G. BAY -2' 24-19, MINN. -2' 28-27...SR: Green Bay 49-47-1)
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - San Francisco 19—Mike Singletary has squeezed as
much as he could out of Shaun Hill’s limitations at QB, so no surprise if S.F.
makes the switch to Alex Smith after he rallied the 49ers admirably at Houston.
Indy and its 15-game reg.-season win streak presents an even tougher
challenge, especially with its defense back to full strength with CB Hayden & S
Sanders returning. But The Colts are beating up a lot of flawed foes lately, and
if 49ers don’t fall way behind as they did vs. the Texans, they won’t have to
abandon the potential infantry diversion provided by RB Gore. Expect WR
Michael Crabtree (5 catches in debut) to make more of an impact. Note Mike
Singletary’s impressive spread mark (5-0-1) last 6 as dog.
(05-Ind. -15' 28-3...SR: Indianapolis 23-18)
Miami 20 - NY JETS 17—After Miami exploited the N.Y. defense at key
times with its retro single-wing-style “wildcat” variations (sometimes four RBs,
two ends, no QB), Jets’ HC Rex Ryan termed his team’s performance a
“complete embarrassment” and “horrendous day for our defense.” He wants
atonement. But let’s not forget that the game marked the coming of age of
Dolphins 1½-year vet QB Chad Henne, whose 20 for 26 and 2 TDs passing were
much needed. Now, Ryan’s defense has lost its “Clydesdale” in the middle
(360-pound NT Kris Jenkins) and also might bewithout LB Bart Scott while his
“O” is now without its thoroughbred in the backfield (RB Leon Washington).
(09-MIAMI 31-Jets 27...M.23-20 M.36/151 N.30/138 M.21/28/0/262 N.12/24/0/171 M.0 N.0)
(08-Jets 20-MIAMI 14...M.18-15 N.31/112 M.17/49 M.26/43/1/228 N.15/22/0/181 N.1 M.0)
(08-Miami 24-JETS 17...M.18-16 M.29/126 N.21/80 N.21/41/3/251 M.22/31/0/193 M.1 N.1)
(09-MIAMI +3 31-27; 08-NY Jets -3 20-14, Miami +2' 24-17...SR: NY Jets 46-41-1)
St. Louis 20 - DETROIT 17—How quickly things change! The Lions, 1-5 TY
and 1-22 their last 23 games, are now wearing the target of the hunted (!!!) vs.
the 0-7 Rams, winless in their last 17. Detroit was last favored in 2008’s season
opener vs. the Falcons in Matt Ryan’s first start, which the Lions lost. Detroit,
whose losing streak reached 19 before Washington arrived in town a month
ago, is hoping power-armed rookie QB Matthew Stafford (knee; out last two
games) and extra-dimension WR Calvin Johnson (22 recs.; out last game with
knee problem) are both near 100% can both return. Without that certainty,
prefer to side with veteran Rams’ duo of RB Steven Jackson & QB Marc Bulger.
(06-ST. LOUIS -5' 41-34...SR: St. Louis 41-38-1)
Seattle 23 - DALLAS 22—Few teams needed a bye as much as
Seattle, which couldn’t escape injuries in its first six games. Now, the rested
and somewhat-healthier Seahawks are in great need of a victory to make the
second half of their season relevant. Veteran QB Hasselbeck (7 TDs, 3 ints.)
and his fine cast of receivers (wideouts Burleson, Houshmandzadeh & Branch,
plus TE Carlson) have a great chance to exploit the tackling problems that have
arisen time and again in the Dallas back seven. And RB Julius Jones (290 YR)
eager for a shot at his former teammates. This one won’t come easy for Dallas;
maybe it won’t come at all.
(08-DALLAS 34-Sea. 9...D.24-19 D.24/116 S.23/80 D.22/34/1/331 S.22/38/1/242 D.0 S.1)
(08-DALLAS -12 34-9...SR: Dallas 7-5)
SAN DIEGO 31 - Oakland 10—Revenge game for Oakland, whose cover in
the first meeting improved the Raiders’ pointspread record vs. S.D. to 2-11 the
last 13 meetings. It was in that contest that the Chargers had three starting
OLmen leave the game with injuries. Now, S.D. appears to be stabilizing (after
a third straight poor start to the season), as LaDainian Tomlinson & Shawne
Merriman much quicker following early injury recovery. And the differential in
QB competence in this one is measured in parsecs. (Will the Raiders turn to
Gradkowski?).
(09-S. Diego 24-OAK. 20...19-19 O.32/148 S.23/77 S.24/36/1/240 O.14/32/2/218 S.1 O.1)
(08-S. Diego 28-OAK. 18...S.18-15 S.30/141 O.23/72 O.22/37/1/251 S.14/25/2/154 S.0 O.1)
(08-S. DIEGO 34-Oak. 7...S.17-9 S.46/158 O.16/54 S.10/22/0/214 O.17/30/3/109 S.1 O.1)
(09-S. Diego -9' 24-20; 08-S. Diego -8 28-18, S. DIEGO -10 34-7...SR: Oakland 55-43-2)
Jacksonville 27 - TENNESSEE 24—Titan coach Jeff Fisher increased the
pressure on himself with his dubious decision to wear Peyton Manning’s jersey
at a fund-raising event honoring Tony Dungy, saying he just “wanted to feel like
a winner.” Perhaps not a good idea for a coach whose team has lost 8 straight
games (1-7 vs. the spread), was humiliated 59-0 in its last start, and is -10 in
turnovers TY. Moreover, Tennessee being criticized for its lack of situation
substitution on defense, even though its limited flexibility due to key DB injuries
(check status of CB Cortland Finnegan & nickel-back Vincent Fuller) certainly
a factor. Not a team that should be laying points vs. the productive Jacksonville
Maurice Jones-Drew (8 TDR) & David Garrard duo.
(09-JACK. 37-Tenn. 17...J.27-19 J.30/137 T.19/95 J.27/37/0/305 T.29/48/2/284 J.1 T.1)
(08-TENN. 17-Jack. 10...T.14-13 T.32/137 J.17/33 T.14/24/2/172 J.23/35/2/156 T.0 J.1)
(08-Tenn. 24-JACK. 14...J.17-13 J.32/140 T.33/114 T.13/23/1/230 J.13/30/1/117 T.0 J.0)
(09-JACK. +3 37-17; 08-TENN. +3 17-10, Tenn. -2' 24-14...SR: Tennessee 17-13)
ARIZONA 28 - Carolina 13—Rematch of NFC Divisional Round playoff
game of LY, when Jake Delhomme played Santa Claus with six giveaways!
With Arizona smothering the run TY (No. 1 thru Week Six), Carolina can’t count
on getting its preferred overland attack rolling. And Delhomme (13 ints., 1 lost
fumble in 2009) still laboring mightily. If Panthers can’t possess the ball, Kurt
Warner & his receivers should dominate. Rookie RB Beanie Wells’ 67 YR vs. the
NYG defense an immensely positive sign. Carolina just 2-9 last 11 as a road dog!
(08-CAR. 27-Ariz. 23...A.25-22 C.29/113 A.14/50 A.36/51/1/375 C.20/28/0/238 C.1 A.1)
(08-Ariz. 33-CAR. 13...A.21-16 A.43/145 C.15/75 A.21/32/1/215 C.17/34/5/194 A.0 C.1)
(08-CAROLINA -4 27-23, Arizona +10 33-13 (Playoffs)...SR: Carolina 6-3)
N.Y. Giants 21 - PHILADELPHIA 16—G-men have covered their last four
visits to “The Linc,” and their willingness to run the ball should serve them well
once again. Eagles hoping the acquisition of Will Witherspoon from the Rams
can solve their MLB problems. The two key questions here seem to be whether
N.Y.’s up-the-field pass rush can disrupt Donovan McNabb enough to keep him
from exploiting his high-quality targets, and whether Eli Manning can shake his
mini-slump to help out his youthful, inconsistent WRs. We’ll trust the NYG DL
vs. the Philly OL (six sacks two weeks ago in Oakland).
(08-Nyg 36-PHI. 31...N.26-17 N.45/219 P.21/106 P.17/36/1/194 N.17/31/1/182 N.1 P.1)
(08-Phi. 20-GIANTS 14...P.24-14 P.40/144 N.24/88 P.19/30/0/187 N.13/27/0/123 P.0 N.0)
(08-Phi. 23-NYG 11...P.20-16 N.32/138 P.28/59 P.22/40/2/217 N.15/29/2/169 P.0 N.1)
(08-Gia. +3 36-31, Phi +6' 20-14, Phi. +4 23-11 (Playoffs)...SR: NY Giants 81-69-2)
Winning Points
****BEST BET
*Green Bay over Minnesota by 22
GREEN BAY 36-14.
****BEST BET
Houston over *Buffalo by 18
HOUSTON 34-16.
Preferred
*Baltimore over Denver by 14
. BALTIMORE 28-14.
*New York Jets over Miami by 14
JETS 20-6.
Close Calls
*Chicago over Cleveland by 15
. CHICAGO 35-20.
*Indianapolis over San Francisco by 13
INDIANAPOLIS 30-17.
*Detroit over St. Louis by 1
DETROIT 21-20.
*Dallas over Seattle by 7
DALLAS 27-20.
*San Diego over Oakland by 17
SAN DIEGO 30-13.
*Tennessee over Jacksonville by 1
.TENNESSEE 28-27.
*Arizona over Carolina by 9
ARIZONA 29-20.
New York Giants over *Philadelphia by 1
NY GIANTS 24-23.
*New Orleans over Atlanta by 7 (Monday)
NEW ORLEANS 31-24.
OVER/UNDER
**UNDER: Miami at New York Jets – Mark Sanchez hasn’t topped 172
yards throwing since opening week, while the Dolphins’ wildcat won’t fool
the Jets a second time.
Over: Jacksonville at Tennessee – Two weak pass defenses and two
top running backs, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson, should spell
lots of points.
Over: Cleveland at Chicago - Jay Cutler should light up a terrible
Cleveland defense at home, while the Browns can do better than previous
games facing a disappointing Chicago defense missing Brian Urlacher.
****BEST BET
*Green Bay over Minnesota by 22
GREEN BAY 36-14.
****BEST BET
Houston over *Buffalo by 18
HOUSTON 34-16.
Preferred
*Baltimore over Denver by 14
. BALTIMORE 28-14.
*New York Jets over Miami by 14
JETS 20-6.
Close Calls
*Chicago over Cleveland by 15
. CHICAGO 35-20.
*Indianapolis over San Francisco by 13
INDIANAPOLIS 30-17.
*Detroit over St. Louis by 1
DETROIT 21-20.
*Dallas over Seattle by 7
DALLAS 27-20.
*San Diego over Oakland by 17
SAN DIEGO 30-13.
*Tennessee over Jacksonville by 1
.TENNESSEE 28-27.
*Arizona over Carolina by 9
ARIZONA 29-20.
New York Giants over *Philadelphia by 1
NY GIANTS 24-23.
*New Orleans over Atlanta by 7 (Monday)
NEW ORLEANS 31-24.
OVER/UNDER
**UNDER: Miami at New York Jets – Mark Sanchez hasn’t topped 172
yards throwing since opening week, while the Dolphins’ wildcat won’t fool
the Jets a second time.
Over: Jacksonville at Tennessee – Two weak pass defenses and two
top running backs, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson, should spell
lots of points.
Over: Cleveland at Chicago - Jay Cutler should light up a terrible
Cleveland defense at home, while the Browns can do better than previous
games facing a disappointing Chicago defense missing Brian Urlacher.
The Sports Advisors
NFL
Denver (6-0 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The surprising Broncos put their perfect record on the line when they make the trip to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens, who have followed up 3-0 start with three straight defeats.
Denver had its bye last week after dropping San Diego 34-23 two Mondays ago as a 3½-point road underdog, remaining unbeaten SU and ATS this season. The Broncos’ defense has been tremendous all year, giving up a league-low 11 points per game, but the stop unit has been nearly perfect in the second half of games, yielding just 10 points after halftime all season, including just only three second-half points total in the past five games. That includes shutting out the Patriots and Cowboys after the half and allowing only a field goal in the win over the Chargers.
Baltimore also had last week off following its heartbreaking 33-31 loss at Minnesota on Oct. 18, missing a game-winning field goal as time expired, though the Ravens covered as a three-point ‘dog. Baltimore has dropped three in row (1-2 ATS) after going 3-0 SU and ATS in its first three games. The Ravens’ offense is averaging 393.2 ypg (fifth) and 28.2 ppg (also fifth), but their usually stout defense is yielding 332.7 ypg and 21.7 ppg, both 19th in the league.
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in the last six meetings in this rivalry, though most recently, Denver won 13-3 as a 5½-point home favorite in October 2006. The home team has cashed in three of the last four contests.
The Broncos, who had been perennially poor at the betting window the past few years, are now riding ATS hot streaks of 6-0 after a SU win, 5-0 against the AFC, 6-1 after a bye, 6-2 on the road and 4-0 as an underdog, cashing as a pup each of the last three weeks. The Ravens, despite their recent woes, remain on ATS runs of 19-7 overall, 9-2 laying points, 4-1 after a SU loss, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 6-2 after the bye and 39-16-1 as a home chalk.
The under has hit in five of Denver’s six games this year and is on further rolls for the Broncos of 10-1 after a SU win, 8-1 after an ATS win and 9-4-1 with Denver a road pup. For Baltimore, the under is on streaks of 5-1 at home (all as a chalk) and 6-1 as a favorite, though the Ravens are also on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 6-0-1 in November and 4-1 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cleveland (1-6, 3-4 ATS) at Chicago (3-3 SU and ATS)
The Bears, looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Bengals, return to Soldier Field for the first time in four weeks when they take on the lowly Browns in a non-conference contest.
Chicago got plastered 45-10 at Cincinnati on Sunday as a one-point chalk for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. Despite acquiring Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler, the Bears are averaging just 312.2 ypg (21st) and 21.5 ppg (20th), primarily due to the league’s fourth-worst rushing attack (80.7 ypg). The Bears’ defense isn’t much better, allowing 329.8 ypg (16th) and 24 ppg (22nd).
Cleveland got drubbed 31-3 by Green Bay as a 9½-point home ‘dog last week, ending a three-game ATS surge. The Browns have scored 14 points or less five times this year, including three outings of six points or less, and they sit 31st in the 32-team league in total ypg (225.4) and 30th in scoring (10.3 ppg). Flailing QB Derek Anderson (2 TDs, 7 INTs, 2 lost fumbles, 40.6 rating) leads a passing game that is averaging just 128.3 ypg.
These teams have been preseason combatants each of the last six years, including two months ago, when host Chicago won 26-23 giving 2½ points, but they’ve played just two meaningful games this decade. Most recently in games that count, Cleveland won 20-10 as a three-point home favorite in October 2005.
The Bears are on ATS skids of 0-4 as a double-digit favorite, 1-4 in November and 2-5-1 as a non-division home chalk, but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five at Soldier Field and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss. The Browns have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, including 3-9-1 overall, 2-5 on the road, 2-8-1 after a SU loss, 1-6-1 after a non-cover, 3-7-1 getting points and 1-5 catching more than 10 points.
Chicago is on “over” runs of 21-9 at home, 18-5 as a Soldier Field chalk and 5-1 with the Bears favored by more than 10 points. On the flip side, the under for Cleveland is on streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the highway, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4-1 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO
Houston (4-3, 3-3-1 ATS) at Buffalo (3-4, 4-3 ATS)
The Bills and Texans both shoot for a third straight victory when they get together at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Buffalo beat Carolina 20-9 Sunday as a seven-point road pup for its second consecutive win and cover, following a three-game SU and ATS slide in which the Bills totaled just 20 points. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, still subbing for Trent Edwards (concussion) has led both victories and will start again this week, but his numbers haven’t been great (21 of 47, 239 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT). The key has been an opportunistic defense that forced four turnovers (three INTs, one fumble) against Carolina after picking off six two weeks ago against the Jets.
Houston darted out to a 21-0 lead against San Francisco, then gave away almost all of it before hanging on for a 24-21 home victory Sunday, pushing as a three-point favorite. The Texans’ offense is averaging 364.7 ypg and 23.9 ppg, both good for 10th in the league, with QB Matt Schaub leading the third-best passing attack at 285.6 ypg, trailing only the Colts and Patriots, respectively.
Buffalo is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in four lifetime meetings in this rivalry, winning and covering the last two, including a 24-21 victory as a three-point road ‘dog in November 2006.
Despite the Bills’ recent upswing, they remain on negative ATS streaks of 1-7 at Ralph Wilson, 1-6-1 in November, 3-9 against winning teams, 1-5 after a SU win and 0-4 as a home chalk. The Texans have failed to cover in four in a row on turf and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 9-4-1 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 5-2 on the road and 7-3 inside the AFC.
The under for Buffalo is on several rolls, including 4-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 5-1 at home and 5-2-1 against winning teams, and the under for Houston is on runs of 9-4 overall (3-1 last four), 5-1 on the highway, 7-2 against the AFC and 6-2 coming off a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
San Francisco (3-3, 4-1-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (6-0, 5-1 ATS)
The streaking Colts aim to remain unbeaten on the season when they play host to the 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis pounded St. Louis 42-6 Sunday as a hefty 14-point road favorite, the team’s 15th consecutive regular-season victory and fifth-straight spread-cover. QB Peyton Manning is engineering the league’s No. 1 passing attack, racking up 310.8 ypg through the air, and the Colts are averaging 402.5 total ypg (fourth) and 29.8 ppg (second). Defensively, Indy is allowing just 291.7 ypg (ninth) and a stifling 12.8 ppg, which is second in the NFL, behind only Denver’s 11.0 ppg.
San Francisco rallied from a 21-0 deficit at Houston last week, but came up just short in a 24-21 setback, getting a push as a three-point ‘dog. Former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith took over for starting QB Shaun Hill at halftime and threw three TDs to TE Vernon Davis to lead the charge. Coach Mike Singletary has decided to stick with Smith in the wake of the 49ers’ third loss in four games. In just 30 minutes of play, Smith went 15 of 22 for 206 yards, with one INT.
These two teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS and the road team rolling to victory each time. Most recently, Indy won 28-3 as a 16½-point favorite in October 2005.
The Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six laying more than 10 at home, but along with their current 5-0 ATS surge, they are on pointspread upturns of 4-0 laying points, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 8-3 against the NFC. The 49ers remain on positive ATS streaks of 4-1-2 overall, 4-0-1 as a road pup, 5-1-1 against winning teams and 5-1-1 after a SU loss, but they are on a 4-9 ATS dive as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, and they are in a 5-17 ATS funk in non-division roadies.
The under is 10-4 in Indianapolis’ last 14 November outings, but the over is on a 4-1 run with the Colts favored by more than 10 points, and the total has gone high in four of San Fran’s last five November starts and seven of its last 10 games following a pointspread defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (2-4 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-3 SU and ATS)
Three weeks after squaring off at Land Shark Stadium, the Jets and Dolphins will collide again in a meeting of AFC East rivals at the Meadowlands.
New York blasted hapless Oakland 38-0 Sunday as a six-point road favorite to get its season back on track, rolling up an eye-popping 316 rushing yards while halting a three-game SU and ATS slide. With rookie QB Mark Sanchez still learning his way, the Jets’ defense and running game have been the key this year. New York is allowing just 14.9 ppg (fourth) and 297.6 ypg (10th), and the Jets lead the league with 184.9 ypg rushing.
Miami jumped out to a 24-3 second-quarter lead against New Orleans, then gave it all away and more in losing 46-34 as a six-point home pup Sunday. Despite the stunning collapse, the Dolphins continue to boast the league’s second-best rushing attack, churning out 170.3 ypg, and they are 11th in scoring (24.3 ppg), though they’re giving up a tick more at 25.3 ppg.
On Monday night football Oct. 12, Miami won a shootout 31-27 as a three-point home pup in a contest that featured 35 fourth-quarter points (21 from Miami). The Dolphins have won and cashed in the last two meetings, but New York has otherwise owned this rivalry lately, carrying ATS hot streaks of 20-6-2 overall and 7-2-2 at home. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, as is the road team.
The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a spread-cover and 7-3 in their last 10 after a SU win, but they are on negative ATS streaks of 5-13-1 against losing teams, 2-7 as a chalk, 1-4 laying points at home, 1-5 giving 3½ to 10 points and 1-4 in division play. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have covered in just two of their last seven starts and are on further ATS skids of 0-4 in November, 1-5 as a ‘dog and 1-6 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. But Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven division outings (4-0 ATS last four) and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road ‘dog.
The under for New York is on stretches of 4-1 after a SU win, 12-5 after a spread-cover and 18-8 with the Jets laying 3½ to 10 points at home. The over has hit in four of Miami’s last five games, but the under is on runs for the Dolphins of 8-1 in November, 6-1 on the highway and 5-0 with the squad a road pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
St. Louis (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Detroit (1-5, 2-4 ATS)
Two of the worst teams over the past two seasons get together when the winless Rams travel to Ford Field to take on the Lions.
St. Louis got hammered by Indianapolis 42-6 last week as a 14-point home underdog for its 17th consecutive SU loss (6-11 ATS), dating back to its shocking 34-14 rout over Dallas as a nine-point home pup on Oct. 19, 2008. The Rams are dead last in scoring, at a meager 8.6 ppg, and 26th in total yards (277.0), while their defense is allowing 385.4 ypg (30th) and 30.1 ppg (29th).
Detroit, coming off its bye week, got blanked at Green Bay 26-0 two Sundays ago and hasn’t been any better than the Rams, winning just once since the second-to-last week of the 2007 season (1-22 SU, 9-14 ATS). The Lions average 293.2 ypg (25th) and just 17.2 ppg (23rd), while the defense is second-to-last in points allowed (31.3 ppg) and 26th in total yards allowed (370.8).
Lions rookie QB Matthew Stafford (knee), who missed the past two games, has practiced this week, but his status is still not certain for Sunday.
St. Louis is 2-1 SU and ATS in its last three meetings with Detroit, including a 41-34 home victory giving 5½ points in October 2006, the most recent contest.
The Rams are on a 9-4 ATS run against losing teams, but the rest of their pointspread streaks tumble downhill, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 in November and a pair of 24-50-1 plunges – following a SU loss and following an ATS setback. The Lions are on identical 3-9 ATS purges at Ford Field and in November, though they are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off the bye week.
St. Louis is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU loss and 6-2-1 after a double-digit home setback, and the over for Detroit is on rolls of 19-8-1 overall, 6-0 in November and 7-1 against losing teams. However, the total has gone low in the Lions’ last five following the bye and four of their last five at Ford Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Seattle (2-4 SU and ATS) at Dallas (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
The Cowboys, looking to extend a modest two-game winning streak, remain at home for the second straight week when they play host to the inconsistent Seahawks.
Dallas topped Atlanta 37-21 Sunday giving 5½ points at the new Cowboys Stadium, ending a two-game ATS hiccup in the process. QB Tony Romo leads an offense that is racking up a whopping 419.3 ypg, second only to the Saints (427.3), passing for 266 ypg (ninth), and the Cowboys sport the league’s fourth-best running attack, at 153.3 ypg.
Seattle, which had a bye last week, followed a 41-0 blowout home win over Jacksonville with a 27-3 home loss to Arizona two Sundays ago as a three-point favorite. The Seahawks are in the top half of the league defensively, allowing 319.7 ypg (12th) and just 18.2 ppg (seventh), but their up-and-down offense is averaging just 12.3 ppg in the four losses and 34.5 ppg in the two wins.
Dallas has cashed in the last four clashes in this rivalry (2-2 SU), including a 34-9 beatdown last November at home as a hefty 11½-point chalk. That said, the underdog and the road team have both gone 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a pointspread win, but from there, they are on pointspread rolls of 10-2 in November, 7-2 against the NFC and 6-2 at home, and they are also on a 9-2 ATS run as a non-division home favorite. The Seahawks are stuck in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall, 1-4 on the highway, 0-4 as a road pup and 2-6-1 against winning teams, and they are on a 9-22 ATS dive in non-division road games.
The over for Dallas is on tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 19-7-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against NFC foes, and the over is on a 23-11 streak with Seattle a road pup. The under for Seattle is on runs of 10-4-1 overall, 6-0 in November, 7-2-1 in conference action and 7-3 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in five of the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
N.Y. Giants (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (4-2 SU and ATS)
The suddenly struggling Giants aim to get back on track with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field for an NFC East showdown with the Eagles.
New York went off as a healthy nine-point home chalk Sunday night against Arizona, then lost 24-17 for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback following a 5-0 start (4-1 ATS). The Giants still sport the NFL’s sixth-best attack in both scoring (27.9 ppg) and total yards (391.3 ypg), and their defense leads the league in allowing just 262 total ypg, though New York is a middling 16th in points allowed (20.4 ppg).
Philadelphia bounced back from a shocking loss at Oakland to beat Washington 27-17 Monday night as a nine-point road favorite, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Eagles are averaging 336.7 ypg, just 17th in the league, but they’re putting up points just the same, averaging 27.2 ppg (seventh). That stat is aided greatly by Philly’s plus-11 turnover margin, which is tops in the NFL.
The Eagles could be without star RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) this week.
These rivals met three times last season, with Philadelphia going 2-1 SU and ATS, including a 23-11 road victory as a four-point pup in the second round of the playoffs. New York has cashed on its last four trips to the Linc, the road team has also covered in four straight, and the underdog is on a 9-0 ATS tear.
The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five division starts, but they sport a bundle of positive ATS streaks, including 33-17-1 overall, 39-19-2 against the NFC, 16-5 against winning teams and 5-0 in November. In addition, New York is on road ATS sprees of 22-5 overall and 15-3 against teams with a winning home record.
The Eagles are also on several ATS upswings, including 10-4 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 in the division, 6-2 against NFC opponents and 5-2 versus winning teams, though they’ve cashed in just one of their last six home division tilts.
The over for Philadelphia is on runs of 6-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 5-0 against the NFC and 25-11-1 against winning teams. The over is also 4-1-1 in New York’s last six November starts, but the under is 8-3 for the Giants in their last 11 following a SU loss, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in five of the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Oakland (2-5, 3-4 ATS) at San Diego (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
The Chargers, who figured to be a lock in the AFC West but now find themselves playing from behind, hook up with the Raiders for the second time this year when these longtime division rivals meet at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego pasted Kansas City 37-7 last week as a 5½-point road favorite to end a two-game SU and ATS skid. Scoring hasn’t been a problem this season for the Chargers, who are tied for eighth in the league at 26.8 ppg, and they field the fourth-best passing attack (281.3 ypg). But their running game behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles has been surprisingly abysmal, at just 70.5 ypg, the second-worst total in the NFL.
Oakland, coming off a stunning home upset of Philadelphia, quickly returned to form in a 38-0 blowout loss to the Jets as a six-point home underdog Sunday. QB JaMarcus Russell threw two INTs and lost a fumble before getting benched in the first half, and he now has two TD passes more than offset by 13 turnovers (8 INTs, five fumbles) The Raiders are 30th in the league with a minus-10 turnover margin.
Oakland nearly pulled off the upset against San Diego in Week 1, coming up short 24-20 but easily covering as a 10-point home ‘dog to end a 4-0 SU and ATS run by the Chargers in this rivalry. San Diego is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 clashes (5-1 ATS at home), and the favorite is on a 10-2 ATS roll.
The Chargers are on ATS dips of 2-5 overall (all against the AFC), 0-4 after a SU win, 3-8 as a chalk and 2-7 after a spread-cover, but they are 22-9-4 ATS in their last 35 AFC West contests and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 at Qualcomm. The Raiders are on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 1-4 overall (all as a pup), 4-9 as a double-digit road ‘dog and 21-43-1 following a pointspread loss. The surprising bright spot: Oakland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 division road affairs.
San Diego is on several “over” runs, including 5-1-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 5-1 after an ATS victory, 5-1-2 laying points and 5-1-1 against AFC opponents. On the flip side, Oakland is on “under” streaks of 5-0 in November, 4-1-1 in division play, 10-3-1 after a SU loss, 9-3-1 after an ATS setback and 7-3-1 against AFC foes. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four Qualcomm meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Jacksonville (3-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (0-6, 1-5 ATS)
The shockingly winless Titans, who went 13-3 last year, will make a quarterback change in hopes of gaining their first victory when they face the Jaguars at LP Field.
Tennessee is coming off a much-needed bye week after taking the beatdown of a lifetime in a 59-0 loss in the snow at New England getting 9½ points. The Titans are giving up a league-worst 33 ppg and are 31st in total yards allowed (405.7 ypg), and they’re putting up an average of just 14 ppg (27th). That, along with some prompting from owner Bud Adams, led coach Jeff Fisher to yank QB Kerry Collins as the starter and put Vince Young under center this week.
Jacksonville, which also had its bye last week, held off winless St. Louis 23-20 in overtime two weeks ago to notch its third win in four games (2-2 ATS) and bounce back from a 41-0 shellacking at Seattle. The Jags are averaging a respectable 355.3 ypg (11th), yet they are just 21st in scoring at 20 ppg. Their defense isn’t helping much, yielding 360.8 ypg (23rd) and 24.5 ppg (24th).
These two teams met four weeks ago, with Jacksonville rolling 37-17 as a three-point home underdog to slow a 4-1 SU and ATS run by Tennessee in this rivalry. The Titans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Nashville, and the underdog has cashed in five of the last six clashes between these two.
The Titans are on pointspread dives of 0-5 overall (all in the AFC), 0-5 in AFC South play, 0-5 laying points, 0-6 after a SU loss and 2-5 at LP Field, though they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 as a home chalk of three points or less. The Jaguars are on ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 2-7 after a SU win, 2-5 following a non-cover and 3-8 against losing teams, but they are a robust 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 starts as a road pup.
The over for Tennessee is on numerous surges, including 4-1 overall, 12-4-1 after a bye, 7-3 at home, 6-2 with the Titans a home chalk, 38-18-1 after a SU loss and 43-21-1 after an ATS defeat. The under has hit in five of Jacksonville’s last six roadies and six of the last seven with the Jags a road ‘dog, but the over for Jack Del Rio’s troops is on runs of 4-1 overall and 9-4-1 against losing teams.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in six of the last nine meetings in this rivalry, with last month’s contest sailing over the 42-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and OVER
Minnesota (6-1, 4-3 ATS) at Green Bay (4-2 SU and ATS)
Four weeks after the first Brett Favre grudge match, the Vikings and Packers get together again, this time at Lambeau Field for an NFC North showdown.
Minnesota suffered its first loss of the year last week, falling to Pittsburgh 27-17 after two costly fourth-quarter turnovers – a Brett Favre fumble and a tipped-ball INT – were returned for long TDs. The Vikes also fell short as six-point pups for their second straight ATS setback. That said, Minnesota is still third in the league in scoring, at 29.4 ppg, and though its defense is a middling 16th in yards allowed (330 ypg) and points allowed (21.1 ppg), the team’s plus-seven turnover margin rates fifth in the NFL.
Green Bay has won its last two games by a combined 57-3 total, pounding on underlings Detroit and Cleveland. Last Sunday, the Pack ripped the Browns 31-3 as a 9½-point road chalk in improving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games. Green Bay has a plus-10 turnover margin, second only to Philadelphia, which has helped it chalk up 26.8 ppg (tied for eighth) and 376.3 ypg (eighth).
Minnesota held off Green Bay 30-23 as a 4½-point home chalk in a Monday nighter on Oct. 5, ending a four-game ATS run (3-1 SU) by the Packers in this rivalry. The Vikings are 7-2 ATS on their last nine trips to Lambeau, the road team is on an 11-4 ATS run and the underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 clashes.
The Vikings sport positive ATS streaks of 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 on the road, but they also shoulder negative pointspread trends of 1-6 against winning teams, 3-7 as a pup and 3-12-2 catching three points or less. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover, but they also are on spread-covering runs of 8-2 in division action, 4-1 as a favorite and 7-3-1 in November.
The over has been the play for Minnesota, as it is on tears of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in November, 7-2 with the Vikings a road pup, 20-8-2 after an ATS loss and 33-16-3 after a SU defeat. Likewise, the over for Green Bay is on upswings of 21-9-1 overall, 15-6 with the Pack favored, 7-1 with the Packers laying three or less, 21-7-1 against the NFC and 11-5 at Lambeau.
Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last five overall in this rivalry, though the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Green Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Carolina (2-4, 1-5 ATS) at Arizona (4-2 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to push their winning streak to four games when they return home to University of Phoenix Stadium to face the struggling Panthers.
Arizona knocked off the Giants 24-17 as a heavy 7½-point underdog Sunday night, winning and covering for the third straight week. The Cardinals still field the NFL’s worst rushing attack, at just 60 ypg, but QB Kurt Warner has helped compensate for it by guiding the seventh-best passing game (269.5 ypg). Arizona also has the league’s seventh-stingiest scoring defense, yielding just 18.2 ppg.
Carolina had its modest two-game winning streak (1-1 ATS) snapped in a 20-9 loss to Buffalo as a seven-point home chalk. Coach John Fox is continuing to stick with beleaguered QB Jake Delhomme, who threw three INTs last week and now has 15 turnovers (13 INTs, two lost fumbles) against just four TDs for the season. That has the Panthers at a league-worst minus-14 turnover margin, with Carolina scoring just 15.7 ppg (25th).
These two teams met in the second round of the playoffs last January, with Arizona rolling 33-13 as a huge 10-point road ‘dog. That’s when Delhomme’s troubles really began, as he threw five INTs and lost a fumble in the blowout. The road team has cashed in the last four clashes between these two, and the underdog is on a 6-2 ATS run.
The Cardinals are on pointspread rolls of 9-2 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1 after both a SU win and after an ATS win, 10-4 as a favorite and 5-2 at home. Conversely, the Panthers are on ATS freefalls of 1-6 overall, 0-4 as a pup, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-6 as a road pup and 2-7 in November.
The under has hit in four straight for Arizona and is 10-4 in Carolina’s last 14 November games. But the over for the Cards is on streaks of 12-4 at home, 6-2 in November, 19-7 after a SU win and 35-16 against losing teams, and the over for the Panthers is on stretches of 6-1 on the highway, 5-1 as an underdog and 10-3 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
WORLD SERIES
N.Y. Yankees (9-3) at Philadelphia (8-4)
Looking to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the best-of-7 World Series at Citizens Bank Park when they send ace CC Sabathia (22-9, 3.15) to the mound on three days’ rest. The Phillies have elected to hand the ball to Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.08), who will be making his second start of this postseason.
After getting drubbed 6-1 in Game 1, the Yankees bounced back with Thursday’s 3-1 victory in Game 2 followed by an 8-4 rout in Game 3 on Saturday. New York rallied from a 3-0 deficit, scoring two runs in the fourth inning, three in the fifth and single runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth to take 2-1 series lead. The game featured six home runs (three from each team), and Andy Pettitte got the win, allowing four runs on five hits while striking out seven in six innings.
New York, back in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2003, have won consecutive World Series games following a four-game losing streak on baseball’s marquee stage. The Yankees enter Game 4 on positive runs of 50-20 overall, 41-13 as a favorite, 12-4 as a road chalk, 7-1 against the N.L. East, 6-0 in interleague road games, 46-18 against right-handed starters and 46-21 on Sunday. However, while Joe Girardi’s team is 8-1 as a favorite in this postseason, it has dropped eight of its last 11 playoff road games and six of eight World Series roadies.
Philadelphia is still 19-7 since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 13 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-16 overall at home, 11-4 as an underdog, 17-8 as a home ‘dog, 5-2 as a playoff pup, 37-17 versus southpaw starters and 40-13 on Sunday. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 11 of 15 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East) and seven straight interleague contests at home.
These teams have now split six meetings this year, with the first five games played in New York. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has won eight of the last 11 head-to-head matchups, with the Yankees going 5-1 in their last six at Citizens Bank Park.
Sabathia’s brilliant postseason continued in Game 1 on Wednesday, as he held the Phillies to two runs on four hits over seven innings, but both runs were Chase Utley sole homers and Sabathia got tagged with a 6-1 defeat in the Bronx. Despite that, he’s still 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in four playoff starts, striking out 26 in 29 2/3 innings.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss) and Sabathia has delivered 14 consecutive quality starts while posting a 1.59 ERA (18 earned runs allowed in 102 innings). Even with the bad outing at Tampa, New York is 14-2 in Sabathia’s last 16 trips the hill, with all 14 victories being by multiple runs. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 7-1 on the road and 10-2 against winning teams.
Sabathia is 13-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 road starts this year (New York is 13-7), including a 10-1 victory at the Angels in his only playoff start on the highway this fall. However, he’s now 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, with Philadelphia winning four of those games, including two this year against the Yankees and a 5-2 NLCS victory last year when Sabathia was pitching with the Brewers. The latter start with Milwaukee was Sabathia’s lone previous appearance at Citizens Bank Park.
Blanton hasn’t pitched since Oct. 19, when he faced the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS, and he yielded four runs (three earned) on six hits in six innings at home. He was set to lose 4-3 before Philadelphia scored two runs with two outs in the ninth inning to steal a 5-4 victory. Blanton also made two appearances in the first round against Colorado, allowing a total of two runs in 3 2/3 innings, so he’s got a 4.66 ERA this postseason.
With Blanton starting, the Phillies are on positive runs of 4-1 overall, 8-2 at home and 9-0 when he works on Sunday. Including the playoff start against the Dodgers, the big right-hander is 7-4 with 3.86 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) at Citizens Bank Park. However, he’s 0-3 with a hefty 8.18 ERA in four career starts against New York (all when Blanton was pitching with Oakland). The Yankees won all four games by a combined score of 28-10.
The first five meetings between these teams this season had stayed under the total before last night’s home-run fest soared over the posted price. Still, the under is 4-2 in the last six clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
The Yankees are 3-0-1 “over” in their last four road games, but otherwise they’re on “under” rolls of 7-3-1 overall, 17-7 in interleague play, 16-7 versus the A.L. East, 7-2-1 as a playoff chalk, 16-6 in the World Series, 7-4 in World Series road games, 16-6-2 as a favorite, 8-2-2 against righty starters and 16-5-2 after a victory. However, with Sabathia on the hill, the over is on runs of 13-3 on the highway and 5-0 on Sunday.
Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 19-6-2 overall, 7-2-1 in these playoffs, 4-0-1 at home, 9-1-1 after a defeat and 4-0 on Sunday. The over is also 3-0-1 in Blanton’s last four starts overall, but the under is 9-4-1 in his last 14 home efforts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
NFL
Denver (6-0 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The surprising Broncos put their perfect record on the line when they make the trip to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens, who have followed up 3-0 start with three straight defeats.
Denver had its bye last week after dropping San Diego 34-23 two Mondays ago as a 3½-point road underdog, remaining unbeaten SU and ATS this season. The Broncos’ defense has been tremendous all year, giving up a league-low 11 points per game, but the stop unit has been nearly perfect in the second half of games, yielding just 10 points after halftime all season, including just only three second-half points total in the past five games. That includes shutting out the Patriots and Cowboys after the half and allowing only a field goal in the win over the Chargers.
Baltimore also had last week off following its heartbreaking 33-31 loss at Minnesota on Oct. 18, missing a game-winning field goal as time expired, though the Ravens covered as a three-point ‘dog. Baltimore has dropped three in row (1-2 ATS) after going 3-0 SU and ATS in its first three games. The Ravens’ offense is averaging 393.2 ypg (fifth) and 28.2 ppg (also fifth), but their usually stout defense is yielding 332.7 ypg and 21.7 ppg, both 19th in the league.
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in the last six meetings in this rivalry, though most recently, Denver won 13-3 as a 5½-point home favorite in October 2006. The home team has cashed in three of the last four contests.
The Broncos, who had been perennially poor at the betting window the past few years, are now riding ATS hot streaks of 6-0 after a SU win, 5-0 against the AFC, 6-1 after a bye, 6-2 on the road and 4-0 as an underdog, cashing as a pup each of the last three weeks. The Ravens, despite their recent woes, remain on ATS runs of 19-7 overall, 9-2 laying points, 4-1 after a SU loss, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 6-2 after the bye and 39-16-1 as a home chalk.
The under has hit in five of Denver’s six games this year and is on further rolls for the Broncos of 10-1 after a SU win, 8-1 after an ATS win and 9-4-1 with Denver a road pup. For Baltimore, the under is on streaks of 5-1 at home (all as a chalk) and 6-1 as a favorite, though the Ravens are also on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 6-0-1 in November and 4-1 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cleveland (1-6, 3-4 ATS) at Chicago (3-3 SU and ATS)
The Bears, looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Bengals, return to Soldier Field for the first time in four weeks when they take on the lowly Browns in a non-conference contest.
Chicago got plastered 45-10 at Cincinnati on Sunday as a one-point chalk for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. Despite acquiring Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler, the Bears are averaging just 312.2 ypg (21st) and 21.5 ppg (20th), primarily due to the league’s fourth-worst rushing attack (80.7 ypg). The Bears’ defense isn’t much better, allowing 329.8 ypg (16th) and 24 ppg (22nd).
Cleveland got drubbed 31-3 by Green Bay as a 9½-point home ‘dog last week, ending a three-game ATS surge. The Browns have scored 14 points or less five times this year, including three outings of six points or less, and they sit 31st in the 32-team league in total ypg (225.4) and 30th in scoring (10.3 ppg). Flailing QB Derek Anderson (2 TDs, 7 INTs, 2 lost fumbles, 40.6 rating) leads a passing game that is averaging just 128.3 ypg.
These teams have been preseason combatants each of the last six years, including two months ago, when host Chicago won 26-23 giving 2½ points, but they’ve played just two meaningful games this decade. Most recently in games that count, Cleveland won 20-10 as a three-point home favorite in October 2005.
The Bears are on ATS skids of 0-4 as a double-digit favorite, 1-4 in November and 2-5-1 as a non-division home chalk, but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five at Soldier Field and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss. The Browns have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, including 3-9-1 overall, 2-5 on the road, 2-8-1 after a SU loss, 1-6-1 after a non-cover, 3-7-1 getting points and 1-5 catching more than 10 points.
Chicago is on “over” runs of 21-9 at home, 18-5 as a Soldier Field chalk and 5-1 with the Bears favored by more than 10 points. On the flip side, the under for Cleveland is on streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the highway, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4-1 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO
Houston (4-3, 3-3-1 ATS) at Buffalo (3-4, 4-3 ATS)
The Bills and Texans both shoot for a third straight victory when they get together at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Buffalo beat Carolina 20-9 Sunday as a seven-point road pup for its second consecutive win and cover, following a three-game SU and ATS slide in which the Bills totaled just 20 points. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, still subbing for Trent Edwards (concussion) has led both victories and will start again this week, but his numbers haven’t been great (21 of 47, 239 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT). The key has been an opportunistic defense that forced four turnovers (three INTs, one fumble) against Carolina after picking off six two weeks ago against the Jets.
Houston darted out to a 21-0 lead against San Francisco, then gave away almost all of it before hanging on for a 24-21 home victory Sunday, pushing as a three-point favorite. The Texans’ offense is averaging 364.7 ypg and 23.9 ppg, both good for 10th in the league, with QB Matt Schaub leading the third-best passing attack at 285.6 ypg, trailing only the Colts and Patriots, respectively.
Buffalo is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in four lifetime meetings in this rivalry, winning and covering the last two, including a 24-21 victory as a three-point road ‘dog in November 2006.
Despite the Bills’ recent upswing, they remain on negative ATS streaks of 1-7 at Ralph Wilson, 1-6-1 in November, 3-9 against winning teams, 1-5 after a SU win and 0-4 as a home chalk. The Texans have failed to cover in four in a row on turf and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 9-4-1 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 5-2 on the road and 7-3 inside the AFC.
The under for Buffalo is on several rolls, including 4-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 5-1 at home and 5-2-1 against winning teams, and the under for Houston is on runs of 9-4 overall (3-1 last four), 5-1 on the highway, 7-2 against the AFC and 6-2 coming off a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
San Francisco (3-3, 4-1-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (6-0, 5-1 ATS)
The streaking Colts aim to remain unbeaten on the season when they play host to the 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis pounded St. Louis 42-6 Sunday as a hefty 14-point road favorite, the team’s 15th consecutive regular-season victory and fifth-straight spread-cover. QB Peyton Manning is engineering the league’s No. 1 passing attack, racking up 310.8 ypg through the air, and the Colts are averaging 402.5 total ypg (fourth) and 29.8 ppg (second). Defensively, Indy is allowing just 291.7 ypg (ninth) and a stifling 12.8 ppg, which is second in the NFL, behind only Denver’s 11.0 ppg.
San Francisco rallied from a 21-0 deficit at Houston last week, but came up just short in a 24-21 setback, getting a push as a three-point ‘dog. Former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith took over for starting QB Shaun Hill at halftime and threw three TDs to TE Vernon Davis to lead the charge. Coach Mike Singletary has decided to stick with Smith in the wake of the 49ers’ third loss in four games. In just 30 minutes of play, Smith went 15 of 22 for 206 yards, with one INT.
These two teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS and the road team rolling to victory each time. Most recently, Indy won 28-3 as a 16½-point favorite in October 2005.
The Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six laying more than 10 at home, but along with their current 5-0 ATS surge, they are on pointspread upturns of 4-0 laying points, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 8-3 against the NFC. The 49ers remain on positive ATS streaks of 4-1-2 overall, 4-0-1 as a road pup, 5-1-1 against winning teams and 5-1-1 after a SU loss, but they are on a 4-9 ATS dive as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, and they are in a 5-17 ATS funk in non-division roadies.
The under is 10-4 in Indianapolis’ last 14 November outings, but the over is on a 4-1 run with the Colts favored by more than 10 points, and the total has gone high in four of San Fran’s last five November starts and seven of its last 10 games following a pointspread defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (2-4 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-3 SU and ATS)
Three weeks after squaring off at Land Shark Stadium, the Jets and Dolphins will collide again in a meeting of AFC East rivals at the Meadowlands.
New York blasted hapless Oakland 38-0 Sunday as a six-point road favorite to get its season back on track, rolling up an eye-popping 316 rushing yards while halting a three-game SU and ATS slide. With rookie QB Mark Sanchez still learning his way, the Jets’ defense and running game have been the key this year. New York is allowing just 14.9 ppg (fourth) and 297.6 ypg (10th), and the Jets lead the league with 184.9 ypg rushing.
Miami jumped out to a 24-3 second-quarter lead against New Orleans, then gave it all away and more in losing 46-34 as a six-point home pup Sunday. Despite the stunning collapse, the Dolphins continue to boast the league’s second-best rushing attack, churning out 170.3 ypg, and they are 11th in scoring (24.3 ppg), though they’re giving up a tick more at 25.3 ppg.
On Monday night football Oct. 12, Miami won a shootout 31-27 as a three-point home pup in a contest that featured 35 fourth-quarter points (21 from Miami). The Dolphins have won and cashed in the last two meetings, but New York has otherwise owned this rivalry lately, carrying ATS hot streaks of 20-6-2 overall and 7-2-2 at home. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, as is the road team.
The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a spread-cover and 7-3 in their last 10 after a SU win, but they are on negative ATS streaks of 5-13-1 against losing teams, 2-7 as a chalk, 1-4 laying points at home, 1-5 giving 3½ to 10 points and 1-4 in division play. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have covered in just two of their last seven starts and are on further ATS skids of 0-4 in November, 1-5 as a ‘dog and 1-6 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. But Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven division outings (4-0 ATS last four) and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road ‘dog.
The under for New York is on stretches of 4-1 after a SU win, 12-5 after a spread-cover and 18-8 with the Jets laying 3½ to 10 points at home. The over has hit in four of Miami’s last five games, but the under is on runs for the Dolphins of 8-1 in November, 6-1 on the highway and 5-0 with the squad a road pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
St. Louis (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Detroit (1-5, 2-4 ATS)
Two of the worst teams over the past two seasons get together when the winless Rams travel to Ford Field to take on the Lions.
St. Louis got hammered by Indianapolis 42-6 last week as a 14-point home underdog for its 17th consecutive SU loss (6-11 ATS), dating back to its shocking 34-14 rout over Dallas as a nine-point home pup on Oct. 19, 2008. The Rams are dead last in scoring, at a meager 8.6 ppg, and 26th in total yards (277.0), while their defense is allowing 385.4 ypg (30th) and 30.1 ppg (29th).
Detroit, coming off its bye week, got blanked at Green Bay 26-0 two Sundays ago and hasn’t been any better than the Rams, winning just once since the second-to-last week of the 2007 season (1-22 SU, 9-14 ATS). The Lions average 293.2 ypg (25th) and just 17.2 ppg (23rd), while the defense is second-to-last in points allowed (31.3 ppg) and 26th in total yards allowed (370.8).
Lions rookie QB Matthew Stafford (knee), who missed the past two games, has practiced this week, but his status is still not certain for Sunday.
St. Louis is 2-1 SU and ATS in its last three meetings with Detroit, including a 41-34 home victory giving 5½ points in October 2006, the most recent contest.
The Rams are on a 9-4 ATS run against losing teams, but the rest of their pointspread streaks tumble downhill, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 in November and a pair of 24-50-1 plunges – following a SU loss and following an ATS setback. The Lions are on identical 3-9 ATS purges at Ford Field and in November, though they are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off the bye week.
St. Louis is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU loss and 6-2-1 after a double-digit home setback, and the over for Detroit is on rolls of 19-8-1 overall, 6-0 in November and 7-1 against losing teams. However, the total has gone low in the Lions’ last five following the bye and four of their last five at Ford Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Seattle (2-4 SU and ATS) at Dallas (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
The Cowboys, looking to extend a modest two-game winning streak, remain at home for the second straight week when they play host to the inconsistent Seahawks.
Dallas topped Atlanta 37-21 Sunday giving 5½ points at the new Cowboys Stadium, ending a two-game ATS hiccup in the process. QB Tony Romo leads an offense that is racking up a whopping 419.3 ypg, second only to the Saints (427.3), passing for 266 ypg (ninth), and the Cowboys sport the league’s fourth-best running attack, at 153.3 ypg.
Seattle, which had a bye last week, followed a 41-0 blowout home win over Jacksonville with a 27-3 home loss to Arizona two Sundays ago as a three-point favorite. The Seahawks are in the top half of the league defensively, allowing 319.7 ypg (12th) and just 18.2 ppg (seventh), but their up-and-down offense is averaging just 12.3 ppg in the four losses and 34.5 ppg in the two wins.
Dallas has cashed in the last four clashes in this rivalry (2-2 SU), including a 34-9 beatdown last November at home as a hefty 11½-point chalk. That said, the underdog and the road team have both gone 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a pointspread win, but from there, they are on pointspread rolls of 10-2 in November, 7-2 against the NFC and 6-2 at home, and they are also on a 9-2 ATS run as a non-division home favorite. The Seahawks are stuck in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall, 1-4 on the highway, 0-4 as a road pup and 2-6-1 against winning teams, and they are on a 9-22 ATS dive in non-division road games.
The over for Dallas is on tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 19-7-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against NFC foes, and the over is on a 23-11 streak with Seattle a road pup. The under for Seattle is on runs of 10-4-1 overall, 6-0 in November, 7-2-1 in conference action and 7-3 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in five of the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
N.Y. Giants (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (4-2 SU and ATS)
The suddenly struggling Giants aim to get back on track with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field for an NFC East showdown with the Eagles.
New York went off as a healthy nine-point home chalk Sunday night against Arizona, then lost 24-17 for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback following a 5-0 start (4-1 ATS). The Giants still sport the NFL’s sixth-best attack in both scoring (27.9 ppg) and total yards (391.3 ypg), and their defense leads the league in allowing just 262 total ypg, though New York is a middling 16th in points allowed (20.4 ppg).
Philadelphia bounced back from a shocking loss at Oakland to beat Washington 27-17 Monday night as a nine-point road favorite, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Eagles are averaging 336.7 ypg, just 17th in the league, but they’re putting up points just the same, averaging 27.2 ppg (seventh). That stat is aided greatly by Philly’s plus-11 turnover margin, which is tops in the NFL.
The Eagles could be without star RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) this week.
These rivals met three times last season, with Philadelphia going 2-1 SU and ATS, including a 23-11 road victory as a four-point pup in the second round of the playoffs. New York has cashed on its last four trips to the Linc, the road team has also covered in four straight, and the underdog is on a 9-0 ATS tear.
The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five division starts, but they sport a bundle of positive ATS streaks, including 33-17-1 overall, 39-19-2 against the NFC, 16-5 against winning teams and 5-0 in November. In addition, New York is on road ATS sprees of 22-5 overall and 15-3 against teams with a winning home record.
The Eagles are also on several ATS upswings, including 10-4 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 in the division, 6-2 against NFC opponents and 5-2 versus winning teams, though they’ve cashed in just one of their last six home division tilts.
The over for Philadelphia is on runs of 6-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 5-0 against the NFC and 25-11-1 against winning teams. The over is also 4-1-1 in New York’s last six November starts, but the under is 8-3 for the Giants in their last 11 following a SU loss, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in five of the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Oakland (2-5, 3-4 ATS) at San Diego (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
The Chargers, who figured to be a lock in the AFC West but now find themselves playing from behind, hook up with the Raiders for the second time this year when these longtime division rivals meet at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego pasted Kansas City 37-7 last week as a 5½-point road favorite to end a two-game SU and ATS skid. Scoring hasn’t been a problem this season for the Chargers, who are tied for eighth in the league at 26.8 ppg, and they field the fourth-best passing attack (281.3 ypg). But their running game behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles has been surprisingly abysmal, at just 70.5 ypg, the second-worst total in the NFL.
Oakland, coming off a stunning home upset of Philadelphia, quickly returned to form in a 38-0 blowout loss to the Jets as a six-point home underdog Sunday. QB JaMarcus Russell threw two INTs and lost a fumble before getting benched in the first half, and he now has two TD passes more than offset by 13 turnovers (8 INTs, five fumbles) The Raiders are 30th in the league with a minus-10 turnover margin.
Oakland nearly pulled off the upset against San Diego in Week 1, coming up short 24-20 but easily covering as a 10-point home ‘dog to end a 4-0 SU and ATS run by the Chargers in this rivalry. San Diego is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 clashes (5-1 ATS at home), and the favorite is on a 10-2 ATS roll.
The Chargers are on ATS dips of 2-5 overall (all against the AFC), 0-4 after a SU win, 3-8 as a chalk and 2-7 after a spread-cover, but they are 22-9-4 ATS in their last 35 AFC West contests and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 at Qualcomm. The Raiders are on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 1-4 overall (all as a pup), 4-9 as a double-digit road ‘dog and 21-43-1 following a pointspread loss. The surprising bright spot: Oakland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 division road affairs.
San Diego is on several “over” runs, including 5-1-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 5-1 after an ATS victory, 5-1-2 laying points and 5-1-1 against AFC opponents. On the flip side, Oakland is on “under” streaks of 5-0 in November, 4-1-1 in division play, 10-3-1 after a SU loss, 9-3-1 after an ATS setback and 7-3-1 against AFC foes. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four Qualcomm meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Jacksonville (3-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (0-6, 1-5 ATS)
The shockingly winless Titans, who went 13-3 last year, will make a quarterback change in hopes of gaining their first victory when they face the Jaguars at LP Field.
Tennessee is coming off a much-needed bye week after taking the beatdown of a lifetime in a 59-0 loss in the snow at New England getting 9½ points. The Titans are giving up a league-worst 33 ppg and are 31st in total yards allowed (405.7 ypg), and they’re putting up an average of just 14 ppg (27th). That, along with some prompting from owner Bud Adams, led coach Jeff Fisher to yank QB Kerry Collins as the starter and put Vince Young under center this week.
Jacksonville, which also had its bye last week, held off winless St. Louis 23-20 in overtime two weeks ago to notch its third win in four games (2-2 ATS) and bounce back from a 41-0 shellacking at Seattle. The Jags are averaging a respectable 355.3 ypg (11th), yet they are just 21st in scoring at 20 ppg. Their defense isn’t helping much, yielding 360.8 ypg (23rd) and 24.5 ppg (24th).
These two teams met four weeks ago, with Jacksonville rolling 37-17 as a three-point home underdog to slow a 4-1 SU and ATS run by Tennessee in this rivalry. The Titans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Nashville, and the underdog has cashed in five of the last six clashes between these two.
The Titans are on pointspread dives of 0-5 overall (all in the AFC), 0-5 in AFC South play, 0-5 laying points, 0-6 after a SU loss and 2-5 at LP Field, though they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 as a home chalk of three points or less. The Jaguars are on ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 2-7 after a SU win, 2-5 following a non-cover and 3-8 against losing teams, but they are a robust 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 starts as a road pup.
The over for Tennessee is on numerous surges, including 4-1 overall, 12-4-1 after a bye, 7-3 at home, 6-2 with the Titans a home chalk, 38-18-1 after a SU loss and 43-21-1 after an ATS defeat. The under has hit in five of Jacksonville’s last six roadies and six of the last seven with the Jags a road ‘dog, but the over for Jack Del Rio’s troops is on runs of 4-1 overall and 9-4-1 against losing teams.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in six of the last nine meetings in this rivalry, with last month’s contest sailing over the 42-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and OVER
Minnesota (6-1, 4-3 ATS) at Green Bay (4-2 SU and ATS)
Four weeks after the first Brett Favre grudge match, the Vikings and Packers get together again, this time at Lambeau Field for an NFC North showdown.
Minnesota suffered its first loss of the year last week, falling to Pittsburgh 27-17 after two costly fourth-quarter turnovers – a Brett Favre fumble and a tipped-ball INT – were returned for long TDs. The Vikes also fell short as six-point pups for their second straight ATS setback. That said, Minnesota is still third in the league in scoring, at 29.4 ppg, and though its defense is a middling 16th in yards allowed (330 ypg) and points allowed (21.1 ppg), the team’s plus-seven turnover margin rates fifth in the NFL.
Green Bay has won its last two games by a combined 57-3 total, pounding on underlings Detroit and Cleveland. Last Sunday, the Pack ripped the Browns 31-3 as a 9½-point road chalk in improving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games. Green Bay has a plus-10 turnover margin, second only to Philadelphia, which has helped it chalk up 26.8 ppg (tied for eighth) and 376.3 ypg (eighth).
Minnesota held off Green Bay 30-23 as a 4½-point home chalk in a Monday nighter on Oct. 5, ending a four-game ATS run (3-1 SU) by the Packers in this rivalry. The Vikings are 7-2 ATS on their last nine trips to Lambeau, the road team is on an 11-4 ATS run and the underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 clashes.
The Vikings sport positive ATS streaks of 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 on the road, but they also shoulder negative pointspread trends of 1-6 against winning teams, 3-7 as a pup and 3-12-2 catching three points or less. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover, but they also are on spread-covering runs of 8-2 in division action, 4-1 as a favorite and 7-3-1 in November.
The over has been the play for Minnesota, as it is on tears of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in November, 7-2 with the Vikings a road pup, 20-8-2 after an ATS loss and 33-16-3 after a SU defeat. Likewise, the over for Green Bay is on upswings of 21-9-1 overall, 15-6 with the Pack favored, 7-1 with the Packers laying three or less, 21-7-1 against the NFC and 11-5 at Lambeau.
Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last five overall in this rivalry, though the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Green Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Carolina (2-4, 1-5 ATS) at Arizona (4-2 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to push their winning streak to four games when they return home to University of Phoenix Stadium to face the struggling Panthers.
Arizona knocked off the Giants 24-17 as a heavy 7½-point underdog Sunday night, winning and covering for the third straight week. The Cardinals still field the NFL’s worst rushing attack, at just 60 ypg, but QB Kurt Warner has helped compensate for it by guiding the seventh-best passing game (269.5 ypg). Arizona also has the league’s seventh-stingiest scoring defense, yielding just 18.2 ppg.
Carolina had its modest two-game winning streak (1-1 ATS) snapped in a 20-9 loss to Buffalo as a seven-point home chalk. Coach John Fox is continuing to stick with beleaguered QB Jake Delhomme, who threw three INTs last week and now has 15 turnovers (13 INTs, two lost fumbles) against just four TDs for the season. That has the Panthers at a league-worst minus-14 turnover margin, with Carolina scoring just 15.7 ppg (25th).
These two teams met in the second round of the playoffs last January, with Arizona rolling 33-13 as a huge 10-point road ‘dog. That’s when Delhomme’s troubles really began, as he threw five INTs and lost a fumble in the blowout. The road team has cashed in the last four clashes between these two, and the underdog is on a 6-2 ATS run.
The Cardinals are on pointspread rolls of 9-2 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1 after both a SU win and after an ATS win, 10-4 as a favorite and 5-2 at home. Conversely, the Panthers are on ATS freefalls of 1-6 overall, 0-4 as a pup, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-6 as a road pup and 2-7 in November.
The under has hit in four straight for Arizona and is 10-4 in Carolina’s last 14 November games. But the over for the Cards is on streaks of 12-4 at home, 6-2 in November, 19-7 after a SU win and 35-16 against losing teams, and the over for the Panthers is on stretches of 6-1 on the highway, 5-1 as an underdog and 10-3 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
WORLD SERIES
N.Y. Yankees (9-3) at Philadelphia (8-4)
Looking to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the best-of-7 World Series at Citizens Bank Park when they send ace CC Sabathia (22-9, 3.15) to the mound on three days’ rest. The Phillies have elected to hand the ball to Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.08), who will be making his second start of this postseason.
After getting drubbed 6-1 in Game 1, the Yankees bounced back with Thursday’s 3-1 victory in Game 2 followed by an 8-4 rout in Game 3 on Saturday. New York rallied from a 3-0 deficit, scoring two runs in the fourth inning, three in the fifth and single runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth to take 2-1 series lead. The game featured six home runs (three from each team), and Andy Pettitte got the win, allowing four runs on five hits while striking out seven in six innings.
New York, back in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2003, have won consecutive World Series games following a four-game losing streak on baseball’s marquee stage. The Yankees enter Game 4 on positive runs of 50-20 overall, 41-13 as a favorite, 12-4 as a road chalk, 7-1 against the N.L. East, 6-0 in interleague road games, 46-18 against right-handed starters and 46-21 on Sunday. However, while Joe Girardi’s team is 8-1 as a favorite in this postseason, it has dropped eight of its last 11 playoff road games and six of eight World Series roadies.
Philadelphia is still 19-7 since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 13 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-16 overall at home, 11-4 as an underdog, 17-8 as a home ‘dog, 5-2 as a playoff pup, 37-17 versus southpaw starters and 40-13 on Sunday. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 11 of 15 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East) and seven straight interleague contests at home.
These teams have now split six meetings this year, with the first five games played in New York. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has won eight of the last 11 head-to-head matchups, with the Yankees going 5-1 in their last six at Citizens Bank Park.
Sabathia’s brilliant postseason continued in Game 1 on Wednesday, as he held the Phillies to two runs on four hits over seven innings, but both runs were Chase Utley sole homers and Sabathia got tagged with a 6-1 defeat in the Bronx. Despite that, he’s still 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in four playoff starts, striking out 26 in 29 2/3 innings.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss) and Sabathia has delivered 14 consecutive quality starts while posting a 1.59 ERA (18 earned runs allowed in 102 innings). Even with the bad outing at Tampa, New York is 14-2 in Sabathia’s last 16 trips the hill, with all 14 victories being by multiple runs. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 7-1 on the road and 10-2 against winning teams.
Sabathia is 13-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 road starts this year (New York is 13-7), including a 10-1 victory at the Angels in his only playoff start on the highway this fall. However, he’s now 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, with Philadelphia winning four of those games, including two this year against the Yankees and a 5-2 NLCS victory last year when Sabathia was pitching with the Brewers. The latter start with Milwaukee was Sabathia’s lone previous appearance at Citizens Bank Park.
Blanton hasn’t pitched since Oct. 19, when he faced the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS, and he yielded four runs (three earned) on six hits in six innings at home. He was set to lose 4-3 before Philadelphia scored two runs with two outs in the ninth inning to steal a 5-4 victory. Blanton also made two appearances in the first round against Colorado, allowing a total of two runs in 3 2/3 innings, so he’s got a 4.66 ERA this postseason.
With Blanton starting, the Phillies are on positive runs of 4-1 overall, 8-2 at home and 9-0 when he works on Sunday. Including the playoff start against the Dodgers, the big right-hander is 7-4 with 3.86 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) at Citizens Bank Park. However, he’s 0-3 with a hefty 8.18 ERA in four career starts against New York (all when Blanton was pitching with Oakland). The Yankees won all four games by a combined score of 28-10.
The first five meetings between these teams this season had stayed under the total before last night’s home-run fest soared over the posted price. Still, the under is 4-2 in the last six clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
The Yankees are 3-0-1 “over” in their last four road games, but otherwise they’re on “under” rolls of 7-3-1 overall, 17-7 in interleague play, 16-7 versus the A.L. East, 7-2-1 as a playoff chalk, 16-6 in the World Series, 7-4 in World Series road games, 16-6-2 as a favorite, 8-2-2 against righty starters and 16-5-2 after a victory. However, with Sabathia on the hill, the over is on runs of 13-3 on the highway and 5-0 on Sunday.
Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 19-6-2 overall, 7-2-1 in these playoffs, 4-0-1 at home, 9-1-1 after a defeat and 4-0 on Sunday. The over is also 3-0-1 in Blanton’s last four starts overall, but the under is 9-4-1 in his last 14 home efforts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 NFL "BLOOD BATH" OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -3(-115 at sia)
This is the week that Denver goes down in flames. Yes, we've bet against Denver en route to their 6-0 record, but we are not going to get burnt again here Sunday. The Ravens are the best team that Denver has faced all season, and this will be their toughest game by far. The Ravens are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Bengals and Vikings. Both of those games came down to the wire, and both they lost in the final seconds. In fact, the all 3 of the Ravens' losses this season have come down to the final seconds when you throw their 21-27 loss at New England in there. This is one pissed off team, and they will come out very hungry Sunday. The Ravens have had a bye week to steam over their recent losses, and you can bet this team will be ready to go when they hit the field at home Sunday. Meanwhile, Denver has also had a bye week to listen to the media and soak in all the compliments. We have no doubt the Broncos come out flat this weekend, and the Ravens pounce on them early. This one will be over by halftime folks, and that's why it's our 2009 "BLOOD BATH" of the year in the NFL. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by 14.0 points/game at home this year. The Broncos are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The home team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series. Take Baltimore and lay the points.
5* Wiseguy NFC Sunday Afternoon PARLAY (Total) on Panthers/Cardinals OVER 41(-104 at 5dimes)
We also love this OVER Sunday as both team score plenty of points to push the Total OVER 41 points. The reason the books have set this total so low is because Arizona has been playing great defense, and Carolina has had a hard time scoring points. But the Panthers are having no problem moving the ball as they put up over 320 yards of total offense against the Bucs two weeks ago and over 420 yards of total offense against the Bills last week. Look for Carolina to finally start putting the ball in the end zone Sunday against a team they cannot wait to get revenge on following their loss to the Cardinals in the playoffs last year. Carolina will be 100% focused for this game, and it will show with their execution offensively. Arizona will get their points, but the defense will take a step back this week after back-to-back dominant performances against the Seahawks and Giants the last two weeks. In the last 5 meetings in this series, Carolina and Arizona have combined to score 44 or more points 4 times. The last 2 meetings saw 46 and 50 combined points, respectively. Carolina has scored 20 or more points in 5 of their last 6 meetings with Arizona. The OVER is 6-1 in the Panthers' last 7 road games. The OVER is 12-4 in the Cardinals' last 16 home games, and the OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER 41 points
5* Wiseguy NFC Sunday Afternoon PARLAY (Side) on Carolina Panthers +10(+100 at sia)
This is a revenge game for the Panthers after getting embarrassed by the Cardinals at home in the playoffs last year. Look for Carolina to come out with their best effort of the season Sunday. The Panthers keep shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers, but we feel that everything will come together this week as they come out very hungry and focused to beat Arizona. Yes, the Panthers lost 9-20 to Buffalo last week, but they never should have lost that game. Carolina outgained the Bills 425-167 in the loss, not numbers you would expect to see with the Panthers losing by 11 points. This team is very explosive offensively when they don't kill themselves with turnovers. They'll get back to running the football which is what they do best, and using timely play-action passes to keep the Cardinals off balance. This is a big letdown spot for Arizona after 3 straight wins over the Texans, Seahawks and Giants. They will also be thinking about how they dominated Carolina last year in the playoffs, and they'll feel like they only need to show up to win Sunday. Carolina will take advantage and snatch away this game early. Carolina has won 3 straight road games over the Cardinals dating back to 2003. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Panthers and the points.
4* on Browns/Bears UNDER 40(-108 at 5dimes)
Cleveland simply cannot score, but they have been playing solid defense which will keep this one UNDER the number. The Bears have hit a wall offensively, scoring a mere 12 points/game in their last 2 games, both losses to the Bengals and Falcons. Look for Chicago to keep struggling against Cleveland's defense, but also look for the Bears to get back on track defensively after giving up way too many points and yards the last two weeks. This defensive unit will take it personal and hold the Browns to 10 points or less Sunday. That shouldn't be a problem considering Cleveland is scoring just 10.3 points/game this season, including 7.2 points/game on the road. The Bears are 41-18 UNDER (+21.2 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. Chicago has been committing too many turnovers lately which have led to easy points for their opposition. The Bears will put an emphasis on taking care of the ball this week, which will lead to more conservative play-calling and a heavy dose of Matt Forte as they try and get back to running the football, which is always what they have done best. Chicago is simply using their "new toy" too much in Jay Cutler, and he is making too many mistakes. The conservative play-calling Sunday will be a big reason why this one stays UNDER the number. The Bears are 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 19-9-1 in Cleveland's last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Take the UNDER 40 points here.
4* on Seattle Seahawks +10(-110 at sia)
The Seattle Seahawks are showing excellent value Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. First off, Seattle is coming off their worst loss of the season to the Arizona Cardinals and they have had an extra week to prepare for Dallas coming off a bye. The Cowboys put a lot of emphasis on last week's home win over the Atlanta Falcons, saying it was their make-or-break game. That only means that they will have an emotional letdown following their biggest victory of the season. As a result of both team's performances in their last game, this line has been inflated and we'll take advantage with the double-digit dog Seahawks. Seattle is primarily a passing team, and the Cowboys are terrible against the pass. The Seahawks are throwing for 220 passing yards/game and completing 61.1% of their passes. Dallas is allowing a 61.5% completion percentage and 238 passing yards/game. That means the Seahawks should have no problem moving the ball through the air. The Seahawks are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Seattle and the points.
4* on New York Jets -3(off at Bodog)
It's revenge time for the Jets after losing to the Dolphins 27-31 on Monday Night Football just 3 weeks ago. They lost on a last-second touchdown by Ronnie Brown after playing their hearts out for 4 quarters. The Jets did whatever they wanted to offensively, but could not get the key stops they need down the stretch to win on the road. Look for this Jets' defense to "man up" Sunday and take it upon themselves to shut down the Dolphins. This defense responded well following that loss, and they'll take another step forward Sunday. This New York defense allowed just 13 points in regulation to Buffalo and only 296 total yards in their 13-16 overtime loss. Mark Sanchez gave away that game with 5 interceptions. The Jets then held Oakland scoreless on the road last week, giving up just 263 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers. The Jets are back to playing the way they were meant to play, which is running the football and playing sound, aggressive defense. New York has rushed for 318 and 316 yards in their last 2 games, respectively. Expect a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene as the Jets run wild on this Miami defense. The Dolphins are emotionally spent right now after blowing a 24-3 lead at home to the Saints last week to lose 46-34. They won't be recovered in time to meet the effort they get from this hungry Jets' squad Sunday. Miami is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. The Dolphins 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=150 rushing yards/game since 1992. Take the Jets and lay the points.
4* on Texans/Bills OVER 41(-110 at betus)
This is a very low total for a Texans' game, a team that owns one of the best offenses in the league but also one of the worst defenses. Look for the Texans to light it up again offensively behind the league's leading passer in QB Matt Schaub who has thrown for 2,074 yards and 16 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Houston will be up against a banged-up Bills' defense that gave up 425 yards of total offense to the Panthers last week. That makes back-to-back games the Bills have given up more than 400 yards of total offense. The only reason they didn't give up more points is because the Jets and Panthers committed 10 turnovers combined! Houston won't be settling for field goals or making the same mistakes, instead they will be converting touchdowns and extra points all game long. Buffalo has to get their offense going this week against a Texans' defense that is allowing 25.3 points/game on the road and 362 total yards/game away from home. Houston gives up 5.6 yards/carry on the road, and the Bills should find huge plays in the running game Sunday which will set up big plays in the passing game to T.O. and Lee Evans. Houston is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 41 points here.
4* on Raiders/Chargers OVER 41(-110 at Bodog)
The Chargers will take care of most of this OVER on their own, just like they did last week against Kansas City. Nobody can deny that San Diego has one of the best offenses in the league, but they are hurting defensively with several key injuries, most importantly to DT Jamal Williams who has been lost for the season with a Tricep injury. That leaves the Chargers soft up the middle, which is why they have given up nearly 140 rushing yards/game this season. Oakland is primarily a running team, and they should be able to move the ball on the ground very effectively Sunday. But the Raiders will not be able to tame this San Diego offense that has put 23 or more points in every game this season. The Chargers score 26.8 points/game on average this year, while the Raiders allow 25.3 points/game overall and 27.2 points/game on the road. In their first meeting of the season back in Week 1, the Chargers won 24-20 as both teams did basically whatever they wanted to offensively. The Chargers put up 366 total yards in the win while the Raiders put up 317 total yards in the loss. Expect the Chargers to put up at least 35 points Sunday, while the Raiders score enough to push this one OVER the number. San Diego has scored 34, 28, 21 and 34 points in their last 4 home meetings with Oakland, respectively. In fact, the Charges have scored 21 or more points in their last 10 overall meetings with Oakland. The 24 points they put up in their first meeting with Oakland this year was their lowest point total in their last 5 head-to-head meetings with the Raiders. They are averaging 28.8 points/game in those 5 meetings. The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Take the OVER 41 points here.
4* on Vikings/Packers OVER 47(-105 at 5dimes)
In what will be a similar point total to the 30-23 Monday Night victory by the Vikings over the Packers earlier this season, we'll side with the OVER 47 points in the second meeting between these NFC North rivals in 2009. The Packers have been unstoppable of late offensively, and the Vikings have been as well despite stopping themselves last week against Pittsburgh with costly turnovers deep in Steelers' territory. Green Bay has scored 21 or more points in every game this season, and they average 26.8 points/game on the year. The Vikings have scored 27 or more points in 6 of their 7 games this season, and they average 29.4 points/game on the year. Both teams are very balanced as the Vikings put up 354 total yards/game while the Packers put up 376 total yards/contest. There simply won't be enough stops Sunday to keep this one under the number. The Vikings are 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. The Packers are 27-11 OVER (+14.9 Units) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. The OVER is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Vikings last 9 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 33-16-3 in Vikings last 52 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 21-9-1 in Packers last 31 games overall. The OVER is 21-7-1 in Packers last 29 vs. NFC. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the OVER 47 points in another shootout.
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 NFL "BLOOD BATH" OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -3(-115 at sia)
This is the week that Denver goes down in flames. Yes, we've bet against Denver en route to their 6-0 record, but we are not going to get burnt again here Sunday. The Ravens are the best team that Denver has faced all season, and this will be their toughest game by far. The Ravens are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Bengals and Vikings. Both of those games came down to the wire, and both they lost in the final seconds. In fact, the all 3 of the Ravens' losses this season have come down to the final seconds when you throw their 21-27 loss at New England in there. This is one pissed off team, and they will come out very hungry Sunday. The Ravens have had a bye week to steam over their recent losses, and you can bet this team will be ready to go when they hit the field at home Sunday. Meanwhile, Denver has also had a bye week to listen to the media and soak in all the compliments. We have no doubt the Broncos come out flat this weekend, and the Ravens pounce on them early. This one will be over by halftime folks, and that's why it's our 2009 "BLOOD BATH" of the year in the NFL. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by 14.0 points/game at home this year. The Broncos are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The home team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series. Take Baltimore and lay the points.
5* Wiseguy NFC Sunday Afternoon PARLAY (Total) on Panthers/Cardinals OVER 41(-104 at 5dimes)
We also love this OVER Sunday as both team score plenty of points to push the Total OVER 41 points. The reason the books have set this total so low is because Arizona has been playing great defense, and Carolina has had a hard time scoring points. But the Panthers are having no problem moving the ball as they put up over 320 yards of total offense against the Bucs two weeks ago and over 420 yards of total offense against the Bills last week. Look for Carolina to finally start putting the ball in the end zone Sunday against a team they cannot wait to get revenge on following their loss to the Cardinals in the playoffs last year. Carolina will be 100% focused for this game, and it will show with their execution offensively. Arizona will get their points, but the defense will take a step back this week after back-to-back dominant performances against the Seahawks and Giants the last two weeks. In the last 5 meetings in this series, Carolina and Arizona have combined to score 44 or more points 4 times. The last 2 meetings saw 46 and 50 combined points, respectively. Carolina has scored 20 or more points in 5 of their last 6 meetings with Arizona. The OVER is 6-1 in the Panthers' last 7 road games. The OVER is 12-4 in the Cardinals' last 16 home games, and the OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER 41 points
5* Wiseguy NFC Sunday Afternoon PARLAY (Side) on Carolina Panthers +10(+100 at sia)
This is a revenge game for the Panthers after getting embarrassed by the Cardinals at home in the playoffs last year. Look for Carolina to come out with their best effort of the season Sunday. The Panthers keep shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers, but we feel that everything will come together this week as they come out very hungry and focused to beat Arizona. Yes, the Panthers lost 9-20 to Buffalo last week, but they never should have lost that game. Carolina outgained the Bills 425-167 in the loss, not numbers you would expect to see with the Panthers losing by 11 points. This team is very explosive offensively when they don't kill themselves with turnovers. They'll get back to running the football which is what they do best, and using timely play-action passes to keep the Cardinals off balance. This is a big letdown spot for Arizona after 3 straight wins over the Texans, Seahawks and Giants. They will also be thinking about how they dominated Carolina last year in the playoffs, and they'll feel like they only need to show up to win Sunday. Carolina will take advantage and snatch away this game early. Carolina has won 3 straight road games over the Cardinals dating back to 2003. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Panthers and the points.
4* on Browns/Bears UNDER 40(-108 at 5dimes)
Cleveland simply cannot score, but they have been playing solid defense which will keep this one UNDER the number. The Bears have hit a wall offensively, scoring a mere 12 points/game in their last 2 games, both losses to the Bengals and Falcons. Look for Chicago to keep struggling against Cleveland's defense, but also look for the Bears to get back on track defensively after giving up way too many points and yards the last two weeks. This defensive unit will take it personal and hold the Browns to 10 points or less Sunday. That shouldn't be a problem considering Cleveland is scoring just 10.3 points/game this season, including 7.2 points/game on the road. The Bears are 41-18 UNDER (+21.2 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. Chicago has been committing too many turnovers lately which have led to easy points for their opposition. The Bears will put an emphasis on taking care of the ball this week, which will lead to more conservative play-calling and a heavy dose of Matt Forte as they try and get back to running the football, which is always what they have done best. Chicago is simply using their "new toy" too much in Jay Cutler, and he is making too many mistakes. The conservative play-calling Sunday will be a big reason why this one stays UNDER the number. The Bears are 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 19-9-1 in Cleveland's last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Take the UNDER 40 points here.
4* on Seattle Seahawks +10(-110 at sia)
The Seattle Seahawks are showing excellent value Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. First off, Seattle is coming off their worst loss of the season to the Arizona Cardinals and they have had an extra week to prepare for Dallas coming off a bye. The Cowboys put a lot of emphasis on last week's home win over the Atlanta Falcons, saying it was their make-or-break game. That only means that they will have an emotional letdown following their biggest victory of the season. As a result of both team's performances in their last game, this line has been inflated and we'll take advantage with the double-digit dog Seahawks. Seattle is primarily a passing team, and the Cowboys are terrible against the pass. The Seahawks are throwing for 220 passing yards/game and completing 61.1% of their passes. Dallas is allowing a 61.5% completion percentage and 238 passing yards/game. That means the Seahawks should have no problem moving the ball through the air. The Seahawks are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Seattle and the points.
4* on New York Jets -3(off at Bodog)
It's revenge time for the Jets after losing to the Dolphins 27-31 on Monday Night Football just 3 weeks ago. They lost on a last-second touchdown by Ronnie Brown after playing their hearts out for 4 quarters. The Jets did whatever they wanted to offensively, but could not get the key stops they need down the stretch to win on the road. Look for this Jets' defense to "man up" Sunday and take it upon themselves to shut down the Dolphins. This defense responded well following that loss, and they'll take another step forward Sunday. This New York defense allowed just 13 points in regulation to Buffalo and only 296 total yards in their 13-16 overtime loss. Mark Sanchez gave away that game with 5 interceptions. The Jets then held Oakland scoreless on the road last week, giving up just 263 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers. The Jets are back to playing the way they were meant to play, which is running the football and playing sound, aggressive defense. New York has rushed for 318 and 316 yards in their last 2 games, respectively. Expect a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene as the Jets run wild on this Miami defense. The Dolphins are emotionally spent right now after blowing a 24-3 lead at home to the Saints last week to lose 46-34. They won't be recovered in time to meet the effort they get from this hungry Jets' squad Sunday. Miami is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. The Dolphins 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=150 rushing yards/game since 1992. Take the Jets and lay the points.
4* on Texans/Bills OVER 41(-110 at betus)
This is a very low total for a Texans' game, a team that owns one of the best offenses in the league but also one of the worst defenses. Look for the Texans to light it up again offensively behind the league's leading passer in QB Matt Schaub who has thrown for 2,074 yards and 16 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Houston will be up against a banged-up Bills' defense that gave up 425 yards of total offense to the Panthers last week. That makes back-to-back games the Bills have given up more than 400 yards of total offense. The only reason they didn't give up more points is because the Jets and Panthers committed 10 turnovers combined! Houston won't be settling for field goals or making the same mistakes, instead they will be converting touchdowns and extra points all game long. Buffalo has to get their offense going this week against a Texans' defense that is allowing 25.3 points/game on the road and 362 total yards/game away from home. Houston gives up 5.6 yards/carry on the road, and the Bills should find huge plays in the running game Sunday which will set up big plays in the passing game to T.O. and Lee Evans. Houston is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 41 points here.
4* on Raiders/Chargers OVER 41(-110 at Bodog)
The Chargers will take care of most of this OVER on their own, just like they did last week against Kansas City. Nobody can deny that San Diego has one of the best offenses in the league, but they are hurting defensively with several key injuries, most importantly to DT Jamal Williams who has been lost for the season with a Tricep injury. That leaves the Chargers soft up the middle, which is why they have given up nearly 140 rushing yards/game this season. Oakland is primarily a running team, and they should be able to move the ball on the ground very effectively Sunday. But the Raiders will not be able to tame this San Diego offense that has put 23 or more points in every game this season. The Chargers score 26.8 points/game on average this year, while the Raiders allow 25.3 points/game overall and 27.2 points/game on the road. In their first meeting of the season back in Week 1, the Chargers won 24-20 as both teams did basically whatever they wanted to offensively. The Chargers put up 366 total yards in the win while the Raiders put up 317 total yards in the loss. Expect the Chargers to put up at least 35 points Sunday, while the Raiders score enough to push this one OVER the number. San Diego has scored 34, 28, 21 and 34 points in their last 4 home meetings with Oakland, respectively. In fact, the Charges have scored 21 or more points in their last 10 overall meetings with Oakland. The 24 points they put up in their first meeting with Oakland this year was their lowest point total in their last 5 head-to-head meetings with the Raiders. They are averaging 28.8 points/game in those 5 meetings. The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Take the OVER 41 points here.
4* on Vikings/Packers OVER 47(-105 at 5dimes)
In what will be a similar point total to the 30-23 Monday Night victory by the Vikings over the Packers earlier this season, we'll side with the OVER 47 points in the second meeting between these NFC North rivals in 2009. The Packers have been unstoppable of late offensively, and the Vikings have been as well despite stopping themselves last week against Pittsburgh with costly turnovers deep in Steelers' territory. Green Bay has scored 21 or more points in every game this season, and they average 26.8 points/game on the year. The Vikings have scored 27 or more points in 6 of their 7 games this season, and they average 29.4 points/game on the year. Both teams are very balanced as the Vikings put up 354 total yards/game while the Packers put up 376 total yards/contest. There simply won't be enough stops Sunday to keep this one under the number. The Vikings are 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. The Packers are 27-11 OVER (+14.9 Units) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. The OVER is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Vikings last 9 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 33-16-3 in Vikings last 52 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 21-9-1 in Packers last 31 games overall. The OVER is 21-7-1 in Packers last 29 vs. NFC. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the OVER 47 points in another shootout.
Marc Lawrence
Playbook
Sunday, November 1
5* BEST BET NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA by 10
4* BEST BET Minnesota over GREEN BAY by 11
3* BEST BET Houston over BUFFALO by 13
BALTIMORE over Denver by 3
CHICAGO over Cleveland by 14
INDIANAPOLIS over San Francisco by 10
Miami over NY JETS by 1
St. Louis over DETROIT by 1
DALLAS over Seattle by 13
SAN DIEGO over Oakland by 13
TENNESSEE over Jacksonville by 3
ARIZONA over Carolina by 3
NFL TOTALS
3* Chargers UNDER
4* Packers OVER
5* Bears UNDER
Playbook
Sunday, November 1
5* BEST BET NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA by 10
4* BEST BET Minnesota over GREEN BAY by 11
3* BEST BET Houston over BUFFALO by 13
BALTIMORE over Denver by 3
CHICAGO over Cleveland by 14
INDIANAPOLIS over San Francisco by 10
Miami over NY JETS by 1
St. Louis over DETROIT by 1
DALLAS over Seattle by 13
SAN DIEGO over Oakland by 13
TENNESSEE over Jacksonville by 3
ARIZONA over Carolina by 3
NFL TOTALS
3* Chargers UNDER
4* Packers OVER
5* Bears UNDER
