Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -2.5(-110 bookm)
The home team has dominated this NFC West rivalry, and with Matt Hasselbeck back healthy this is a completely different Seattle team. The Seahawks are 2-0 in games where Hasselbeck has played the entire contest. They won 28-0 over St. Louis in their opener and then 41-0 against Jacksonville last week. He has returned from a rib injury that kept him out of action in losses to the 49ers, Bears & Colts. In just 2.5 games, Hasselbeck has thrown for 617 yards and 7 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. Arizona owns the worst passing defense in the league, giving up 303 passing yards/game. Hasselbeck and this offense will have their way with the Cardinals' secondary, and the Seahawks' defense will continue playing well after recording their second shutout of the season last week. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series. Seattle is 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents 29.3 to 8.3 for an average margin of victory of 21 points. Their lone loss came to the Bears after blowing a late lead, also a game where Hasselbeck was not present. The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. A win Sunday will get the Seahawks right back in the NFC West race, and they aren't about to squander this opportunity. This team simply does not lose at home, especially with star QB Matt Hasselbeck under center. Take Seattle and lay the points. (We got in at -2.5 on Wednesday, but it's still a 6* Play up to -4)
5* NBC Sunday Night Football BLOOD BATH on Atlanta Falcons -3(+105 Bodog)
The Atlanta Falcons used their bye week to perfection, bouncing back from a loss at New England to destroy the San Francisco 49ers 45-10 last week on the road. Now they return home to a rowdy crowd that will be cheering on Matt Ryan and company to beat the Chicago Bears on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Atlanta is 2-0 at home this year, outscoring the likes of Miami & Carolina by 10.0 points/game. Their defense is allowing just 13.5 points/game at home. Chicago is very lucky to be 3-1 right now, with a last-second home win against Pittsburgh where Steelers' K Jeff Reed missed two chip shot field goals late. The Bears also had to come from behind to beat Seattle on the road, a Seahawks' team that was playing without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck in that one. The Bears won't get those same kind of breaks against Atlanta Sunday, because the Falcons are one of the most complete teams in the league. Their offense is very tough to tame, averaging 106 rushing yards and 240 passing yards/game with excellent balance. Chicago is having a very tough time running the football right now, which will force Jay Cutler to try and make more plays, which will lead to more mistakes. The Bears are averaging just 89 rushing yards/game on the road and 2.9 yards/carry away from home. This is a tough spot for the Bears, as Chicago is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992. They have been very fortunate to play a soft schedule with the Seahawks and Lions in their last two, but we see this trend holding true as they travel to face an Atlanta team that has all the tools to compete for the NFC Championship. Also note that Chicago is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Take the Falcons and lay the points. (Line is -3 as of Wednesday, if it creeps up to 3.5 by game-time we recommend buying the 1/2 point. But it's still a 5* play all the way up to -4.)