Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 18, 2009
$45.00 Guaranteed: Matt had a WINNING NFL Week 5 and he is ready to extend what has already been a profitable season! He has won 3 of the last 4 Sundays and he is releasing his 10* TOP TICKET which is his #1 REPORT of the entire card! His latest 10* Winner with Cincinnati outright on Sunday moved his 10* plays in the NFL this year to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS! We keep the FLAWLESS run going strong! Guaranteed! 10/16/2009
**10** NFL NON-CONFERENCE REPORT *5-0 YTD*
10* Baltimore Ravens
Date: Sunday, October 18, 2009
$45.00 Guaranteed: Matt had a WINNING NFL Week 5 and he is ready to extend what has already been a profitable season! He has won 3 of the last 4 Sundays and he is releasing his 10* TOP TICKET which is his #1 REPORT of the entire card! His latest 10* Winner with Cincinnati outright on Sunday moved his 10* plays in the NFL this year to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS! We keep the FLAWLESS run going strong! Guaranteed! 10/16/2009
**10** NFL NON-CONFERENCE REPORT *5-0 YTD*
10* Baltimore Ravens
Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 18, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: Matt showed a slight profit in Week Five in the NFL and he is ready for a huge Week Six! He has won money in 3 of the last 4 Sundays and he will be extending that this Sunday with another big card! Included in a HUGE TOP PLAY that goes against the masses and backed by two Power Situations that are a FANTASTIC 71-26 ATS (73.2%)! The profits continue in Week Six! Guaranteed!
9* Houston Texans
Date: Sunday, October 18, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: Matt showed a slight profit in Week Five in the NFL and he is ready for a huge Week Six! He has won money in 3 of the last 4 Sundays and he will be extending that this Sunday with another big card! Included in a HUGE TOP PLAY that goes against the masses and backed by two Power Situations that are a FANTASTIC 71-26 ATS (73.2%)! The profits continue in Week Six! Guaranteed!
9* Houston Texans
st bernadine sports advisors
no write ups for these.
randy wood - 1*Eagles/Raiders Over 20(bought hook)-120 1st Half
john Keelan - 1* kc chiefs +6
lillefty(matt dennehy) -
1* Detroit defense is allowing 73% completion rate this year!! With the week off to work on o-line problems ,look for Rodgers + company to have a big offensive day possibly hanging a 40 spot on detroit def. Culpepper looked solid last week for the Lions vs Pittsburgh. He completed 23 of 37 for 225. If we can see the Kevin Smith like we did in week 2 and 3 when he put up 184 yds, then the Lions will put up their share of points also. For those looking to bank some more green today I have 6 totals games 5 in the NFL and 1 MLB game. Good luck, Lefty
Let's cash!!
ZAGS
no write ups for these.
randy wood - 1*Eagles/Raiders Over 20(bought hook)-120 1st Half
john Keelan - 1* kc chiefs +6
lillefty(matt dennehy) -
1* Detroit defense is allowing 73% completion rate this year!! With the week off to work on o-line problems ,look for Rodgers + company to have a big offensive day possibly hanging a 40 spot on detroit def. Culpepper looked solid last week for the Lions vs Pittsburgh. He completed 23 of 37 for 225. If we can see the Kevin Smith like we did in week 2 and 3 when he put up 184 yds, then the Lions will put up their share of points also. For those looking to bank some more green today I have 6 totals games 5 in the NFL and 1 MLB game. Good luck, Lefty
Let's cash!!
ZAGS
Lang
Sunday's Selections ...
100 DIME - NY GIANTS - (If 3, buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2, never get beat by the hook) - They didn't fail me in the Super Bowl, and I am quite confident they won't fail me today.
This team thrives on the road. They love it, and today will be another chance for them to show just how good on the road they are.
The numbers only tell have the story.
They are 18-3 ATS their last 21 on the road overall, and on a 31-10 ATS run their last 41 overall.
This team has been a cash machine for over 2 1/2 years, and I see nothing the Saints bring to the table that leads me to believe they will slow them down.
Let's start with the coaching matchup. Sean Payton, 0-4 SU and ATS out of the bye week for New Orleans versus Tom Coughlin, Super Bowl winner, and 10-1 ATS last 11 as a dog.
Advantage Giants.
I know the Saints have put together a nice run here to open the season, but I guess anybody would have done that with any talent they have faced at the QB position so far this year.
Let's see, rookie Matthew Stafford of the Lions in week one, Kevin Kolb of the Eagles in week two, who by the way threw for 378 yards against them! Trent Edwards in week 3, and rookie Mark Sanchez in week 4.
Do you see anybody of the caliber of Eli Manning? Exactly.
I also don't see a team above with the offensive line and run game of the Giants either.
The Giants have become more dominant each week they have played but as I said at the top, it's one thing to be 8 and 10 point favorites on the road and another thing entirely to flat out be an underdog.
This is a live dog today that as you can see from past experience, loves to bark and bark loudly. Just ask Dallas.
New York doesn't beat itself. They make the plays that need to be made and the biggest thing of all when they are on the road, they pressure the QB.
Although I came big with a 50 dimer on the Saints over the Jets, figuring rookie Mark Sanchez would implode and he did, I walked away from that game lucky to have won it.
The Saints offense really couldn't do much against Rex Ryans Jet's defense as 17 of the Saints 24 points were set up by Jet turnovers.
That is not going to happen today.
Look for Brees to be pressured all day long and come the 2nd half of this game when the Giants offensive and defensive lines have been pounding you all day, that is when New York is at their best.
I believe the Giants will win the time of possession battle and from top to bottom are the more physical team and the more experienced team to handle a big game like this one today.
I went to war with the Giants in the Super Bowl as a 100 dime winner, and I will gladly back them here +3 1/2 points as my 100 dimer today.
All Giants.
15 DIME - BALTIMORE RAVENS - (if 2 1/2 you buy to 3, and if 3 you buy to 3 1/2) - Let's see, other than the San Francisco game that the Vikings should have lost, the other 4 opponents they have played are a combined 4-15.
When the Bengals, from the same division of the Ravens, went into Green Bay and hung up over 30 on the Packers, I have waited for this matchup here.
Same AFC division for Ravens, and same NFC division for Minnesota, and I have no problem rolling the dice with the Ravens today.
The difference in this game will be the pressure the Ravens defense gets on Favre and believe me, they will get pressure.
Although the Ravens have dropped their last 2 ATS, they are still 9-4 ATS last 13 under Harbaugh while the Vikings are on a complete opposite run ATS of 4-9 at home.
Minnesota has been living on borrowed time playing the likes of the Browns, Lions, Rams and even the Packers who would have taken them down if not for the stupidity and ignorance of Aaron Rodgers.
The bottom line is this is the most physical team the Vikings would have faced all year long and just as the Niners stood toe to toe with them the Ravens will do the same.
Ravens are the play.
15 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Tom Brady breaks out today.
If David Garrard can throw for close to 300 yards on the Titans defense, and Peyton Manning did throw for over 300 yards on this Titans defense, what do you think Brady is going to do today?
Seriously, the Titans have no secondary. 3 starters out. 2 rookies starting. Ranked dead last in the NFL.
If ever the Patriots needed a feel good game to break out offensively this is the team you want to face on this day.
They were done at 0-2. Even more so at 0-3. They went into Jacksonville needing a win to really save their season and allowed the Jags, a team that just lost 41-0 at Seattle, to destroy them 37-17.
If the Jags, with David Garrard and an average receiving corp at best can light you up by 20 points and the next week Peyton Manning lights you up by 22, I can't imagine how quickly Tom Brady wants to get after this Titans defense off the loss to Denver.
The Patriots handled Matt Ryan and the Falcons at home 26-10 and trust me folks, I think we all know just how much better the Falcons are than the Titans.
Tennessee is so far gone in this season, so in shock of the events the first 5 games they have had this year that if you think they are going to be able to match the Patriots intensity, well guess again.
Forced to play from behind yet another week, Kerry Collins will implode again and the Patriots should roll by 21 points or more in a nice New England blowout.
Lay the wood with the Patriots.
15 DIME - ATLANTA FALCONS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 3) -
So the Bears are feeling good about themselves are they? Not for long.
It's easy to feel good when you beat the Steelers at home without their best defensive player. Win at Seattle who was playing without their best offensive player, Matt Hasselbeck, and beat the Lions.
Trust me folks, the Falcons are not the Lions.
This is another big step up game for the Bears and in my opinion, they will fail miserably.
Atlanta showed me something last week and coming back home where they have handled their business to the tune of 2-0 SU and ATS with wins and covers over the Dolphins and the Panthers.
This is great value with the Falcons as home laying this small a number and it's only because of the hype of the Bears 4 game winning streak but as I pointed out above, not a really impressive considering 3 of the 4 teams they faced.
Atlanta has covered 7 of their last 10 at home while the Bears under Lovie Smith just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a road dog.
Coaching, QB play, running game and home field will all be the difference as the Falcons pull away and win by double digits courtesy of a late Cutler INT.
Falcons go to 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year.
I am not sold on the Bears with Jay Cutler as their QB. Not at all.
FREE SELECTION - ARIZONA CARDINALS
Sunday's Selections ...
100 DIME - NY GIANTS - (If 3, buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2, never get beat by the hook) - They didn't fail me in the Super Bowl, and I am quite confident they won't fail me today.
This team thrives on the road. They love it, and today will be another chance for them to show just how good on the road they are.
The numbers only tell have the story.
They are 18-3 ATS their last 21 on the road overall, and on a 31-10 ATS run their last 41 overall.
This team has been a cash machine for over 2 1/2 years, and I see nothing the Saints bring to the table that leads me to believe they will slow them down.
Let's start with the coaching matchup. Sean Payton, 0-4 SU and ATS out of the bye week for New Orleans versus Tom Coughlin, Super Bowl winner, and 10-1 ATS last 11 as a dog.
Advantage Giants.
I know the Saints have put together a nice run here to open the season, but I guess anybody would have done that with any talent they have faced at the QB position so far this year.
Let's see, rookie Matthew Stafford of the Lions in week one, Kevin Kolb of the Eagles in week two, who by the way threw for 378 yards against them! Trent Edwards in week 3, and rookie Mark Sanchez in week 4.
Do you see anybody of the caliber of Eli Manning? Exactly.
I also don't see a team above with the offensive line and run game of the Giants either.
The Giants have become more dominant each week they have played but as I said at the top, it's one thing to be 8 and 10 point favorites on the road and another thing entirely to flat out be an underdog.
This is a live dog today that as you can see from past experience, loves to bark and bark loudly. Just ask Dallas.
New York doesn't beat itself. They make the plays that need to be made and the biggest thing of all when they are on the road, they pressure the QB.
Although I came big with a 50 dimer on the Saints over the Jets, figuring rookie Mark Sanchez would implode and he did, I walked away from that game lucky to have won it.
The Saints offense really couldn't do much against Rex Ryans Jet's defense as 17 of the Saints 24 points were set up by Jet turnovers.
That is not going to happen today.
Look for Brees to be pressured all day long and come the 2nd half of this game when the Giants offensive and defensive lines have been pounding you all day, that is when New York is at their best.
I believe the Giants will win the time of possession battle and from top to bottom are the more physical team and the more experienced team to handle a big game like this one today.
I went to war with the Giants in the Super Bowl as a 100 dime winner, and I will gladly back them here +3 1/2 points as my 100 dimer today.
All Giants.
15 DIME - BALTIMORE RAVENS - (if 2 1/2 you buy to 3, and if 3 you buy to 3 1/2) - Let's see, other than the San Francisco game that the Vikings should have lost, the other 4 opponents they have played are a combined 4-15.
When the Bengals, from the same division of the Ravens, went into Green Bay and hung up over 30 on the Packers, I have waited for this matchup here.
Same AFC division for Ravens, and same NFC division for Minnesota, and I have no problem rolling the dice with the Ravens today.
The difference in this game will be the pressure the Ravens defense gets on Favre and believe me, they will get pressure.
Although the Ravens have dropped their last 2 ATS, they are still 9-4 ATS last 13 under Harbaugh while the Vikings are on a complete opposite run ATS of 4-9 at home.
Minnesota has been living on borrowed time playing the likes of the Browns, Lions, Rams and even the Packers who would have taken them down if not for the stupidity and ignorance of Aaron Rodgers.
The bottom line is this is the most physical team the Vikings would have faced all year long and just as the Niners stood toe to toe with them the Ravens will do the same.
Ravens are the play.
15 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Tom Brady breaks out today.
If David Garrard can throw for close to 300 yards on the Titans defense, and Peyton Manning did throw for over 300 yards on this Titans defense, what do you think Brady is going to do today?
Seriously, the Titans have no secondary. 3 starters out. 2 rookies starting. Ranked dead last in the NFL.
If ever the Patriots needed a feel good game to break out offensively this is the team you want to face on this day.
They were done at 0-2. Even more so at 0-3. They went into Jacksonville needing a win to really save their season and allowed the Jags, a team that just lost 41-0 at Seattle, to destroy them 37-17.
If the Jags, with David Garrard and an average receiving corp at best can light you up by 20 points and the next week Peyton Manning lights you up by 22, I can't imagine how quickly Tom Brady wants to get after this Titans defense off the loss to Denver.
The Patriots handled Matt Ryan and the Falcons at home 26-10 and trust me folks, I think we all know just how much better the Falcons are than the Titans.
Tennessee is so far gone in this season, so in shock of the events the first 5 games they have had this year that if you think they are going to be able to match the Patriots intensity, well guess again.
Forced to play from behind yet another week, Kerry Collins will implode again and the Patriots should roll by 21 points or more in a nice New England blowout.
Lay the wood with the Patriots.
15 DIME - ATLANTA FALCONS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 3) -
So the Bears are feeling good about themselves are they? Not for long.
It's easy to feel good when you beat the Steelers at home without their best defensive player. Win at Seattle who was playing without their best offensive player, Matt Hasselbeck, and beat the Lions.
Trust me folks, the Falcons are not the Lions.
This is another big step up game for the Bears and in my opinion, they will fail miserably.
Atlanta showed me something last week and coming back home where they have handled their business to the tune of 2-0 SU and ATS with wins and covers over the Dolphins and the Panthers.
This is great value with the Falcons as home laying this small a number and it's only because of the hype of the Bears 4 game winning streak but as I pointed out above, not a really impressive considering 3 of the 4 teams they faced.
Atlanta has covered 7 of their last 10 at home while the Bears under Lovie Smith just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a road dog.
Coaching, QB play, running game and home field will all be the difference as the Falcons pull away and win by double digits courtesy of a late Cutler INT.
Falcons go to 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year.
I am not sold on the Bears with Jay Cutler as their QB. Not at all.
FREE SELECTION - ARIZONA CARDINALS
Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella
Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots Oct 18 2009 4:15PM
Prediction: New England Patriots
Reason: The Tennessee Titans owned the best record in the NFL last season at 13-3, but were just 3-7 SU the past few years when All-Pro DE Albert Haynesworth wasn't in the line-up. They traded Haynesworth to Washington and their defensive unit can no longer pressure the opposing QB. In fact, they opened the season at 0-5 without Haynesworth and are now 3-12 without him! Bad news for the Titans as they play in New England this Sunday against QB Tom Brady, who dismantles teams when he has time to throw the football. Pats coming off a 17-20 OT loss in Denver, but we find QB Brady 19-7 ATS after losing his previous game, including 1-0 ATS this season, beating Atlanta 26-10 after losing to the NY Jets. Titans troubles continue for another week.
10* Play On New England
Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots Oct 18 2009 4:15PM
Prediction: New England Patriots
Reason: The Tennessee Titans owned the best record in the NFL last season at 13-3, but were just 3-7 SU the past few years when All-Pro DE Albert Haynesworth wasn't in the line-up. They traded Haynesworth to Washington and their defensive unit can no longer pressure the opposing QB. In fact, they opened the season at 0-5 without Haynesworth and are now 3-12 without him! Bad news for the Titans as they play in New England this Sunday against QB Tom Brady, who dismantles teams when he has time to throw the football. Pats coming off a 17-20 OT loss in Denver, but we find QB Brady 19-7 ATS after losing his previous game, including 1-0 ATS this season, beating Atlanta 26-10 after losing to the NY Jets. Titans troubles continue for another week.
10* Play On New England
Trace Adams
PAY-AFTER-YOU-WIN - 500* - Chicago Bears Something about this game smacks of "trap" to me, as Atlanta is coming off of a road crush-job over San Francisco, and now they are back at home where they have won and covered both games to date.
Why aren't they laying a little more here?
I think Chicago is the play.
The Bears are on a 3 game win and cover streak since losing opening Sunday night of the season with a loss at Green Bay, and Jay Cutler looks like a keeper for Lovie's team.
Atlanta's defense is a tad suspect, and I expect Cutler to exploit the secondary in this spot.
Last year, Chicago lost a thriller 22-20 at Atlanta as the 3-point favorite, this year the line is 3-points the other way, and I think the underdog is the play once again.
Defense makes the difference in this game, and I trust Chicago's stop-unit a little more than I trust Atlanta's at this point in the season.
Grab the points, and the Bears!
PAY-AFTER-YOU-WIN
500♦ - Chicago Bears
PAY-AFTER-YOU-WIN - 500* - Chicago Bears Something about this game smacks of "trap" to me, as Atlanta is coming off of a road crush-job over San Francisco, and now they are back at home where they have won and covered both games to date.
Why aren't they laying a little more here?
I think Chicago is the play.
The Bears are on a 3 game win and cover streak since losing opening Sunday night of the season with a loss at Green Bay, and Jay Cutler looks like a keeper for Lovie's team.
Atlanta's defense is a tad suspect, and I expect Cutler to exploit the secondary in this spot.
Last year, Chicago lost a thriller 22-20 at Atlanta as the 3-point favorite, this year the line is 3-points the other way, and I think the underdog is the play once again.
Defense makes the difference in this game, and I trust Chicago's stop-unit a little more than I trust Atlanta's at this point in the season.
Grab the points, and the Bears!
PAY-AFTER-YOU-WIN
500♦ - Chicago Bears
Oskeim Sports
5 Star Club - Sunday, October 18, 2009
Baltimore Ravens (+3) (-115) over Minnesota Vikings*
*The Ravens are a 5* investment at +3 or more (at -130 odds or better).
Baltimore takes the field with a vastly underrated offense that is averaging 27.6 points per game this season, including 4.9 yards per rush attempt, 6.0 yards per play and 13.8 yards per point against teams that combine to allow just 22.7 points per game, 4.6 yards per rush play, 5.8 yards per play and 15.8 yards per point to mediocre offensive squads. Moreover, the Ravens' offense has remained explosive on the road this season where they have averaged 26 points per game, including 5.0 yards per rush play and 13 yards per point. Meanwhile, the Vikings' stop unit has performed below-average at home where they have allowed 24 points per game, including 265 passing yards (8.5 yards per pass play; 66.1% completion rate) and 6.4 yards per play to teams that combine to average just 5.7 yards per pass attempt and 5.0 yards per play. And, despite last week's misleading 38-10 win over the hapless Rams, the Vikings allowed over 400 total yards and were the beneficiaries of four St. Louis turnovers inside the red zone. Let's also note that Baltimore is a profitable 5-1 ATS off consecutive losses versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win and 8-2 ATS as underdogs off a straight-up favorite loss versus a non-conference opponent.
Invest on - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Baltimore) - off an extremely close home loss by three points or less, after the first month of the season.
(74-39 since 1983; 65.5%)
This system is 9-2 ATS since 2004, 17-7 ATS since 2000 and 74-39 ATS since 1983.
Invest on - Underdogs or pick (Baltimore) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(38-14 since 1983; 73.1%)
This system is 5-0 ATS since 2004, 12-3 ATS since 1997 and 38-14 ATS since 1983.
From a technical standpoint, Minnesota applies to a terrible 21-78-3 ATS letdown system of mine that invests against certain home favorites off two or more consecutive SU and ATS wins, provided they are matched up against a non-conference opponent off two or more consecutive SU and ATS losses. In contrast, the Ravens fall into a terrific 45-7-1 ATS bounce-back situation that invests on certain NFL underdogs of three or less points, provided they are off back-to-back losses and are matched up against an undefeated opponent. I should also note that Minnesota is a money-burning 1-7 ATS after allowing ten or less points and 0-5 ATS versus an opponent off a loss as a favorite, whereas the Ravens are a solid 8-1 ATS on the road off SU and ATS losses in the month of October.
Finally, my math model actually favors Baltimore by one point in this game, which is significant in that my model does not take into account the above-referenced technical situations that strongly favor the Ravens. When taking into account the technical situations, the Ravens should be favored by nearly three points so we are getting excellent line value on the underdog this afternoon. With the public siding with an overrated Minnesota team that has played a much easier schedule, take Baltimore and invest with confidence.
Rating: 5*
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New Orleans Saints (-3) (-120) over New York Giants*
*The Saints are a 5* investment at -3 or less (at -130 odds or better).
New Orleans is a profitable 14-5 ATS over the last two seasons, including 10-1 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS when playing on artificial turf. Moreover, the Saints are a terrific 9-1 ATS at home versus .666 or greater non-division conference opponents, 3-1 ATS off back-to-back blowout wins, 5-2 ATS after consecutive wins and 4-0 ATS when installed as favorites this season. Aside from the technical situations, the Saints take the field with a vastly underrated defense that is allowing just 16.5 points per game, including 85 rushing yards (3.8 yards per carry), 5.5 yards per pass play and 4.9 yards per play to teams that combine to average 22 points per game, 4.2 yards per rush attempt, 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 5.3 yards per play. In addition, the Saints' defense has excelled at home this season where they have limited opponents to a mere 3.5 yards per rush play, 4.8 yards per pass play and 237 total yards (4.3 yards per play). While New Orleans' offense tends to receive all of the accolades from the talking heads on television, the Saints' defense remains one of the best stop units in the entire league.
The Saints also possess the superior offense that is averaging an impressive 36 points per game this season, including 5.0 yards per rush play, 7.7 yards per pass play and 6.3 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 23.7 points per game, 4.4 yards per rush play, 5.9 yards per pass play and 5.2 yards per play to mediocre offensive squads. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees takes excellent care of the ball (only 2 interceptions this season), and the Saints' offense is capable of striking at any time as they are averaging a remarkable 11.5 yards per point in 2009. While the Giants are certainly one of the best teams in football this season, they have struggled to stop the run, particularly on the road. In fact, New York is allowing 4.8 yards per rush play to teams that combine to average only 4.1 yards per rush play, including yielding 6.0 yards per rush attempt on the road.
According to my database, undefeated home teams playing with a week of rest are an incredible 28-8-1 ATS during the regular season. Let's also note that New Orleans applies to a solid 122-36-3 ATS statistical profile indicator of mine that is premised upon the Saints' powerful ground attack, whereas the Giants fall into a negative 27-84-2 ATS road situation that is 1-7 ATS in 2009. Take the Saints and invest with confidence
5 Star Club - Sunday, October 18, 2009
Baltimore Ravens (+3) (-115) over Minnesota Vikings*
*The Ravens are a 5* investment at +3 or more (at -130 odds or better).
Baltimore takes the field with a vastly underrated offense that is averaging 27.6 points per game this season, including 4.9 yards per rush attempt, 6.0 yards per play and 13.8 yards per point against teams that combine to allow just 22.7 points per game, 4.6 yards per rush play, 5.8 yards per play and 15.8 yards per point to mediocre offensive squads. Moreover, the Ravens' offense has remained explosive on the road this season where they have averaged 26 points per game, including 5.0 yards per rush play and 13 yards per point. Meanwhile, the Vikings' stop unit has performed below-average at home where they have allowed 24 points per game, including 265 passing yards (8.5 yards per pass play; 66.1% completion rate) and 6.4 yards per play to teams that combine to average just 5.7 yards per pass attempt and 5.0 yards per play. And, despite last week's misleading 38-10 win over the hapless Rams, the Vikings allowed over 400 total yards and were the beneficiaries of four St. Louis turnovers inside the red zone. Let's also note that Baltimore is a profitable 5-1 ATS off consecutive losses versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win and 8-2 ATS as underdogs off a straight-up favorite loss versus a non-conference opponent.
Invest on - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Baltimore) - off an extremely close home loss by three points or less, after the first month of the season.
(74-39 since 1983; 65.5%)
This system is 9-2 ATS since 2004, 17-7 ATS since 2000 and 74-39 ATS since 1983.
Invest on - Underdogs or pick (Baltimore) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(38-14 since 1983; 73.1%)
This system is 5-0 ATS since 2004, 12-3 ATS since 1997 and 38-14 ATS since 1983.
From a technical standpoint, Minnesota applies to a terrible 21-78-3 ATS letdown system of mine that invests against certain home favorites off two or more consecutive SU and ATS wins, provided they are matched up against a non-conference opponent off two or more consecutive SU and ATS losses. In contrast, the Ravens fall into a terrific 45-7-1 ATS bounce-back situation that invests on certain NFL underdogs of three or less points, provided they are off back-to-back losses and are matched up against an undefeated opponent. I should also note that Minnesota is a money-burning 1-7 ATS after allowing ten or less points and 0-5 ATS versus an opponent off a loss as a favorite, whereas the Ravens are a solid 8-1 ATS on the road off SU and ATS losses in the month of October.
Finally, my math model actually favors Baltimore by one point in this game, which is significant in that my model does not take into account the above-referenced technical situations that strongly favor the Ravens. When taking into account the technical situations, the Ravens should be favored by nearly three points so we are getting excellent line value on the underdog this afternoon. With the public siding with an overrated Minnesota team that has played a much easier schedule, take Baltimore and invest with confidence.
Rating: 5*
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New Orleans Saints (-3) (-120) over New York Giants*
*The Saints are a 5* investment at -3 or less (at -130 odds or better).
New Orleans is a profitable 14-5 ATS over the last two seasons, including 10-1 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS when playing on artificial turf. Moreover, the Saints are a terrific 9-1 ATS at home versus .666 or greater non-division conference opponents, 3-1 ATS off back-to-back blowout wins, 5-2 ATS after consecutive wins and 4-0 ATS when installed as favorites this season. Aside from the technical situations, the Saints take the field with a vastly underrated defense that is allowing just 16.5 points per game, including 85 rushing yards (3.8 yards per carry), 5.5 yards per pass play and 4.9 yards per play to teams that combine to average 22 points per game, 4.2 yards per rush attempt, 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 5.3 yards per play. In addition, the Saints' defense has excelled at home this season where they have limited opponents to a mere 3.5 yards per rush play, 4.8 yards per pass play and 237 total yards (4.3 yards per play). While New Orleans' offense tends to receive all of the accolades from the talking heads on television, the Saints' defense remains one of the best stop units in the entire league.
The Saints also possess the superior offense that is averaging an impressive 36 points per game this season, including 5.0 yards per rush play, 7.7 yards per pass play and 6.3 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 23.7 points per game, 4.4 yards per rush play, 5.9 yards per pass play and 5.2 yards per play to mediocre offensive squads. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees takes excellent care of the ball (only 2 interceptions this season), and the Saints' offense is capable of striking at any time as they are averaging a remarkable 11.5 yards per point in 2009. While the Giants are certainly one of the best teams in football this season, they have struggled to stop the run, particularly on the road. In fact, New York is allowing 4.8 yards per rush play to teams that combine to average only 4.1 yards per rush play, including yielding 6.0 yards per rush attempt on the road.
According to my database, undefeated home teams playing with a week of rest are an incredible 28-8-1 ATS during the regular season. Let's also note that New Orleans applies to a solid 122-36-3 ATS statistical profile indicator of mine that is premised upon the Saints' powerful ground attack, whereas the Giants fall into a negative 27-84-2 ATS road situation that is 1-7 ATS in 2009. Take the Saints and invest with confidence
