NFL Week 5 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Minnesota, Carolina, Pittsburgh, New England, and Indy to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers
Our offshore contacts circled this game early in the week. The Carolina Panthers, one of last year's best NFL teams, is yet to win a game this season (0-3). Bettors are pounding their money down on the Carolina Panthers to "make like their 12-4 record" last year. Almost 80% of the bets are landing on Carolina this week. Even so, the line has moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5 because "big money" is loading up on the Redskins.
This kind of sports marketplace action ("reverse line movement") is a good indication of "smart money" at work. SportsInsights.com's tools indicate that a "Smart Money" play was triggered on Washington by Carib (8-4, +3.34 units). This matches up with what our offshore contacts have been telling us. We believe that there is still excellent value in betting the Redskins +4 at Sports Interaction. Let's "bet against the Public" and go with the "big money."
Washington Redskins +4 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4 -110)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions
This game is one of the most "lopsided-bet" games of the week. Even though the Steelers are just 2-2 this season, sports bettors are getting down on the Steelers as if they are the league's powerhouse. And why not? This week, the Steelers play the lowly Detroit Lions, a team with one of the league's worst point differentials this season -- and a team that was, umm, winless last year!
Almost 5 out of every 6 bets are coming down on the Steelers. Even with such a huge disparity of bets, our sports betting analytics saw a "Smart Money" play triggered on Detroit by Phoenix (11-2 +9.13 units). The line opened at Detroit +12 at Cris, but is currently +10.5. We see this "reverse line movement" despite the fact that Detroit's rookie QB Stafford is out for the game.
Our readers know that we often need "bad" teams to "not be horrible" against "good" teams. Here, we see a "live dog" in the Detroit Lions getting double-digit points at home -- against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has given up an average of 20 points a game this season. Not the "Steel Curtain" of old... We still see excellent value in betting the Detroit +10.5 at BetUS
Detroit Lions +10.5 (Bet at BetUS +10.5 -110)
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
One of our favorite sportsbook risk-managers was animated about this match-up. He said that the New England-Denver game was getting a "LOT of action" -- and that most of his book's smaller bettors were getting down on New England, "after the Patriot's impressive win last week over the Baltimore Ravens." Even the headlines have been trumpeting, "The Dominating Pats of Old." However, even with heavy one-way action on New England, there was reverse line movement.
The line opened at Denver +3.5, but made a huge move to the key football number of +3. This kind of reverse line movement is a definite indication that "big money" is taking the Denver Broncos at home. There is still excellent value in betting Denver +3.5 at BetUS. In addition, SportsInsights.com's Smart Money tool triggered a play on Denver by 5Dimes (28-22, +4.34 units). This is a week of several "smart money" plays. Let's see if the "sharps" can help us to another winning week.
Denver Broncos +3.5 (Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (5-7, 41.7%)
Washington Redskins +4 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4 -110)
Detroit Lions +10.5 (Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
Denver Broncos +3.5 (Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights