DCI 36-26 ATS ON SIDES FOR THE SEASON
Sunday, October 11, 2009
BALTIMORE 25, Cincinnati 12
BUFFALO 23, Cleveland 15
CAROLINA 21, Washington 12
Pittsburgh 33, DETROIT 14
Dallas 27, KANSAS CITY 18
N.Y. GIANTS 30, Oakland 7
PHILADELPHIA 36, Tampa Bay 9
Minnesota 33, ST. LOUIS 12
SAN FRANCISCO 23, Atlanta 18
ARIZONA 30, Houston 23
New England 22, DENVER 18
Jacksonville 23, SEATTLE 19
Indianapolis 23, TENNESSEE 16
Sunday, October 11, 2009
BALTIMORE 25, Cincinnati 12
BUFFALO 23, Cleveland 15
CAROLINA 21, Washington 12
Pittsburgh 33, DETROIT 14
Dallas 27, KANSAS CITY 18
N.Y. GIANTS 30, Oakland 7
PHILADELPHIA 36, Tampa Bay 9
Minnesota 33, ST. LOUIS 12
SAN FRANCISCO 23, Atlanta 18
ARIZONA 30, Houston 23
New England 22, DENVER 18
Jacksonville 23, SEATTLE 19
Indianapolis 23, TENNESSEE 16
DUNKEL NFL
Houston at Arizona
The Texans look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog. Houston is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11
Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (10/7)
Game 401-402: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 135.006; St. Louis 122.071
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 37
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9 1/2); Under
Game 403-404: Dallas at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.240; Kansas City 126.336
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over
Game 405-406: Washington at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.759; Carolina 129.160
Dunkel Line: Even; 33
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Under
Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.148; Philadelphia 145.382
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 22; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 14 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14 1/2); Over
Game 409-410: Oakland at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.808; NY Giants 140.927
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 16; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 14 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-14 1/2); Over
Game 411-412: Cleveland at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.990; Buffalo 125.276
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6); Over
Game 413-414: Cincinnati at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.347; Baltimore 142.959
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 14 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 8; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-8); Over
Game 415-416: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.129; Detroit 122.765
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10 1/2); Over
Game 417-418: Atlanta at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 134.543; San Francisco 135.325
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: New England at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New England 133.175; Denver 138.180
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5; 37
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under
Game 421-422: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.867; Arizona 132.561
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2); Over
Game 423-424: Jacksonville at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 134.276; Seattle 128.932
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); N/A
Game 425-426: Indianapolis at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.639; Tennessee 131.841
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3 1/2); Over
Houston at Arizona
The Texans look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog. Houston is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11
Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (10/7)
Game 401-402: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 135.006; St. Louis 122.071
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 37
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9 1/2); Under
Game 403-404: Dallas at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.240; Kansas City 126.336
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over
Game 405-406: Washington at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.759; Carolina 129.160
Dunkel Line: Even; 33
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Under
Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.148; Philadelphia 145.382
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 22; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 14 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14 1/2); Over
Game 409-410: Oakland at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.808; NY Giants 140.927
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 16; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 14 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-14 1/2); Over
Game 411-412: Cleveland at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.990; Buffalo 125.276
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6); Over
Game 413-414: Cincinnati at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.347; Baltimore 142.959
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 14 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 8; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-8); Over
Game 415-416: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.129; Detroit 122.765
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10 1/2); Over
Game 417-418: Atlanta at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 134.543; San Francisco 135.325
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: New England at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New England 133.175; Denver 138.180
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5; 37
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under
Game 421-422: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.867; Arizona 132.561
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2); Over
Game 423-424: Jacksonville at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 134.276; Seattle 128.932
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); N/A
Game 425-426: Indianapolis at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.639; Tennessee 131.841
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3 1/2); Over
The Boys
NFL Oct 11 '09
1:00p Washington Redskins vs Carolina Panthers
Take: Carolina Panthers -3-115
The Panthers were 8-0 at home last year in the regular season, winning 6 of them by at least 9 pts, and all of them by at least 3. The Redskins have lost their 2 road games by 5 and 6 pts, and gave the lowly Lions their 1st win in 19 games, Clinton Portis is hurting, and they have a serious lack of offense outside of him. I think Carolina gets their 1st win here easily, and look for big games from DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith.
San Francisco 49ers -2-110
Denver Broncos +3½-110
New York Jets -2-110
NFL Oct 11 '09
1:00p Washington Redskins vs Carolina Panthers
Take: Carolina Panthers -3-115
The Panthers were 8-0 at home last year in the regular season, winning 6 of them by at least 9 pts, and all of them by at least 3. The Redskins have lost their 2 road games by 5 and 6 pts, and gave the lowly Lions their 1st win in 19 games, Clinton Portis is hurting, and they have a serious lack of offense outside of him. I think Carolina gets their 1st win here easily, and look for big games from DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith.
San Francisco 49ers -2-110
Denver Broncos +3½-110
New York Jets -2-110
Sunday NFL System Club Play-GC-
The Sunday system club play is on the Newyork Giants. Game 410 at 1:00 eastern. The Giants are clicking on all cylinders so far this year. Today they get the 1-3 Oakland Raiders. The boys in blue qualify in a solid system that is 20-0 straight up and 15-4-1 ats. What we want to do is play on home favorites from -10.5 to -16 if they are off back to back wins and covers. Theses teams come home from their road success and do not skip a beat. As an added advantage they get an Oakland team that travels cross country to play in an early 1pm eastern game. This traveling situation has been troubling for West Coast teams through the years,especially those who are under .500. The Giants biggest concern here is the status of Qb Eli Manning. He is scheduled to make the start as of this writing. Oakland has major trouble on offense. They have scored 9 points over the last 2 weeks and are just 2-10 ats on the road after scoring 10 or less. Look for the Giants to coast here on Sunday. In late phone action I have the NFL Game of the Month from 5 different systems.This big game goes late afternoon, those with me last week cashed a huge 6 unit play on Tampa Bay. I also have a rare 13-1 Dog system that dates to 1980 and a Big non divisional Dominator system side plus a MLB Power angle play.Take the Giants as the system club play. BOL GC.
The Sunday system club play is on the Newyork Giants. Game 410 at 1:00 eastern. The Giants are clicking on all cylinders so far this year. Today they get the 1-3 Oakland Raiders. The boys in blue qualify in a solid system that is 20-0 straight up and 15-4-1 ats. What we want to do is play on home favorites from -10.5 to -16 if they are off back to back wins and covers. Theses teams come home from their road success and do not skip a beat. As an added advantage they get an Oakland team that travels cross country to play in an early 1pm eastern game. This traveling situation has been troubling for West Coast teams through the years,especially those who are under .500. The Giants biggest concern here is the status of Qb Eli Manning. He is scheduled to make the start as of this writing. Oakland has major trouble on offense. They have scored 9 points over the last 2 weeks and are just 2-10 ats on the road after scoring 10 or less. Look for the Giants to coast here on Sunday. In late phone action I have the NFL Game of the Month from 5 different systems.This big game goes late afternoon, those with me last week cashed a huge 6 unit play on Tampa Bay. I also have a rare 13-1 Dog system that dates to 1980 and a Big non divisional Dominator system side plus a MLB Power angle play.Take the Giants as the system club play. BOL GC.
Gloria Paredes Lozano
st.louis +10 (5* big play)
new england -3 (4*) normal play
tennessee +4 (3*) small play
I have 9-3 .. Based on her units i have +27 units since we have found this chick...
WHY ARE SO MANY TOUTS ON THE RAMS??
I just cant bet them or Oakland, I dont care if its gods pick!!
st.louis +10 (5* big play)
new england -3 (4*) normal play
tennessee +4 (3*) small play
I have 9-3 .. Based on her units i have +27 units since we have found this chick...
WHY ARE SO MANY TOUTS ON THE RAMS??
I just cant bet them or Oakland, I dont care if its gods pick!!
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +9
Once again, the Bengals aren't getting any respect from the odds makers. Perhaps when they upset the Baltimore Ravens Sunday, they will start taking notice. Cincinnati should be 4-0 this season if it wasn't for a miracle by Denver in Week 1. Baltimore is a very good team, but they aren't 9 points better than the Bengals Sunday. Ravens' players were making all kinds of excuses after their 27-21 loss to the Patriots last week, and it just goes to show the character of some of their players. The Bengals have a complete team this season, which is what it takes to win in this league consistently. Their defense is giving up just 19.0 points/game. Offensively they have balance, rushing for 123 yards/game and passing for 196 yards/game. So far, the Bengals have not gotten the respect they deserve and players know it. They realize this is their chance to put their names back on the map as one of the top teams in the league, a claim they had a few years ago before Carson Palmer went down with a knee injury. But he's back and better than ever, improving with each game. Ochocinco has worked his way back to becoming one of the game's top receivers, catching two touchdown passes last week. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5. Take Cincinnati and the points
4* Pats/Broncos AFC "Side" Surefire on New England -3(+105 bodog)
The Denver Broncos are the most overrated team in the league right now because of their 4-0 start. But the Patriots will put an end to the madness by going into Denver and coming out with a win. The Patriots are, by far, the more superior team here and it will show on the scoreboard. The Broncos have been great defensively, but they haven't played an offense like the Patriots. They have played the Browns, Raiders, Bengals who were rusty in Week 1, and the Cowboys who are clearly lacking offensive explosiveness without any proven wide receivers. The Patriots have Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Randy Moss. They cannot contain these three in four quarters. Not to mention the Patriots' defense is playing great this year. The Pats are giving up just 17.7 points/game this season and 287 yards/game and that's impressive considering they've played the likes of the Falcons, Ravens, Jets and Bills, a much tougher schedule than Denver has faced. New England boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a TD in the Belichick era. Take the Patriots and lay the points. (Recommend buying 1/2 point down to -3 after locking this line in early in the week)
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6* Widow Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +9
Once again, the Bengals aren't getting any respect from the odds makers. Perhaps when they upset the Baltimore Ravens Sunday, they will start taking notice. Cincinnati should be 4-0 this season if it wasn't for a miracle by Denver in Week 1. Baltimore is a very good team, but they aren't 9 points better than the Bengals Sunday. Ravens' players were making all kinds of excuses after their 27-21 loss to the Patriots last week, and it just goes to show the character of some of their players. The Bengals have a complete team this season, which is what it takes to win in this league consistently. Their defense is giving up just 19.0 points/game. Offensively they have balance, rushing for 123 yards/game and passing for 196 yards/game. So far, the Bengals have not gotten the respect they deserve and players know it. They realize this is their chance to put their names back on the map as one of the top teams in the league, a claim they had a few years ago before Carson Palmer went down with a knee injury. But he's back and better than ever, improving with each game. Ochocinco has worked his way back to becoming one of the game's top receivers, catching two touchdown passes last week. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5. Take Cincinnati and the points
4* Pats/Broncos AFC "Side" Surefire on New England -3(+105 bodog)
The Denver Broncos are the most overrated team in the league right now because of their 4-0 start. But the Patriots will put an end to the madness by going into Denver and coming out with a win. The Patriots are, by far, the more superior team here and it will show on the scoreboard. The Broncos have been great defensively, but they haven't played an offense like the Patriots. They have played the Browns, Raiders, Bengals who were rusty in Week 1, and the Cowboys who are clearly lacking offensive explosiveness without any proven wide receivers. The Patriots have Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Randy Moss. They cannot contain these three in four quarters. Not to mention the Patriots' defense is playing great this year. The Pats are giving up just 17.7 points/game this season and 287 yards/game and that's impressive considering they've played the likes of the Falcons, Ravens, Jets and Bills, a much tougher schedule than Denver has faced. New England boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a TD in the Belichick era. Take the Patriots and lay the points. (Recommend buying 1/2 point down to -3 after locking this line in early in the week)
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Black Widow
5* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Cardinals OVER 48(+100at 5dimes)
This is easily the best Total for your money Sunday. Yes, it's a lot of points, but not for Houston and Arizona. The Texans are scoring 34.0 points/game on the road and giving up 31.0 points/game on the road this year. Arizona is giving up 25.5 points/game at home. After a bye week, look for the Cardinals to get going offensively with a little extra practice time for Warner and his receivers to gel. Houston is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in dome games since 1992. The Texans are 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. These are two great offenses and two of the worst defenses in the league on display Sunday, making a high-scoring shootout inevitable. Take the OVER 48 points here.
4* Falcons/49ers NFC "Side" Surefire on San Francisco -2(-110 at bodog)
The 49ers are 2 seconds away from being 4-0 this season. They have one of the best defenses in the game, and it gives San Francisco a chance to win every contest. Atlanta is 2-1 this season, but in their only road game they looked terrible. The Falcons lost 10-26 at New England in their lone road contest, putting up just 257 yards of total offense in the loss. The Patriots put up 277 passing yards alone, and 168 more rushing to boot. This San Francisco defense is allowing just 13.2 points/game and 284 yards/game, coming off a shutout 35-0 win over the Rams last week behind 3 defensive touchdowns. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The 49ers have won 7 of their last 9 regular season games since Mike Singletary took over. Take San Francisco and lay the points.
4* Redskins/Panthers NFC "Side" Surefire on Carolina -3(-110 at bodog)
Carolina is coming off a bye and ready to get going. They are not going to give up on their season, sitting 0-3 right now. But when you look at who they've played it's pretty easy to see why the record is where it is. They have lost to the Eagles, Cowboys and Falcons, three teams with .500 records or better. Now they face easily their weakest competition of the season Sunday in the Washington Redskins. Washington is 2-2 but they are lucky to have two wins. The Redskins beat St. Louis 9-7 at home, a Rams' team that everyone else in the league is demolishing. They beat Tampa Bay 16-13 last week at home, another team that the rest of the league is crushing. They even had to come from behind to beat the Bucs. Carolina is still the better team here Sunday in spite of their record, and that will show on the scoreboard once this one goes final. Look for the Panthers to get back to running the football which is their strength, because Washington has not been good against the run. The Redskins have given up at least 100 yards rushing in all 4 games this season, allowing an average of 128 rushing yards/contest. This is also the same Washington team that allowed the Detroit Lions to end their 19-game losing streak a few weeks back. Carolina is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. They have gone away from what they do best, and over the bye week they have figured out that they need to get back to pounding the rock. Take Carolina and lay the points. (Recommend buying 1/2 point down to -3 after we got in on this line early in the week)
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5* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Cardinals OVER 48(+100at 5dimes)
This is easily the best Total for your money Sunday. Yes, it's a lot of points, but not for Houston and Arizona. The Texans are scoring 34.0 points/game on the road and giving up 31.0 points/game on the road this year. Arizona is giving up 25.5 points/game at home. After a bye week, look for the Cardinals to get going offensively with a little extra practice time for Warner and his receivers to gel. Houston is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in dome games since 1992. The Texans are 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. These are two great offenses and two of the worst defenses in the league on display Sunday, making a high-scoring shootout inevitable. Take the OVER 48 points here.
4* Falcons/49ers NFC "Side" Surefire on San Francisco -2(-110 at bodog)
The 49ers are 2 seconds away from being 4-0 this season. They have one of the best defenses in the game, and it gives San Francisco a chance to win every contest. Atlanta is 2-1 this season, but in their only road game they looked terrible. The Falcons lost 10-26 at New England in their lone road contest, putting up just 257 yards of total offense in the loss. The Patriots put up 277 passing yards alone, and 168 more rushing to boot. This San Francisco defense is allowing just 13.2 points/game and 284 yards/game, coming off a shutout 35-0 win over the Rams last week behind 3 defensive touchdowns. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The 49ers have won 7 of their last 9 regular season games since Mike Singletary took over. Take San Francisco and lay the points.
4* Redskins/Panthers NFC "Side" Surefire on Carolina -3(-110 at bodog)
Carolina is coming off a bye and ready to get going. They are not going to give up on their season, sitting 0-3 right now. But when you look at who they've played it's pretty easy to see why the record is where it is. They have lost to the Eagles, Cowboys and Falcons, three teams with .500 records or better. Now they face easily their weakest competition of the season Sunday in the Washington Redskins. Washington is 2-2 but they are lucky to have two wins. The Redskins beat St. Louis 9-7 at home, a Rams' team that everyone else in the league is demolishing. They beat Tampa Bay 16-13 last week at home, another team that the rest of the league is crushing. They even had to come from behind to beat the Bucs. Carolina is still the better team here Sunday in spite of their record, and that will show on the scoreboard once this one goes final. Look for the Panthers to get back to running the football which is their strength, because Washington has not been good against the run. The Redskins have given up at least 100 yards rushing in all 4 games this season, allowing an average of 128 rushing yards/contest. This is also the same Washington team that allowed the Detroit Lions to end their 19-game losing streak a few weeks back. Carolina is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. They have gone away from what they do best, and over the bye week they have figured out that they need to get back to pounding the rock. Take Carolina and lay the points. (Recommend buying 1/2 point down to -3 after we got in on this line early in the week)
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34Paytonplace
15unit- Carolina -4 (Top play)
Well the redskins lost to the lions and then just got by a pathetic tampa bay club at home this redskins offense is inept now they go on the road to carolina who has struggled but they have been good in the past at home and there coming off there bye week where they got alot off there chest and challenging one another have to not only believe that they come to play here but think coach fox takes the ball out of qb delhomme hands and pounds the rock here when your in need of a win you have to get tough and that happens up front with the offensive line.........Lets back the panthers to get there first win as our top play this week!!!!!!!!!
10unit- New England -3
Denver did a great job beating the cowboys last week but the question is was it great play by the broncos or just terrible play by romo also dallas has no game breaker or go to guy that was obivious late in that game well trust me this pats team has a top qb who is starting to get it going and they can streatch the field also orton was very lucky at least 3 times last week he should have been picked this is without question the best team the broncos have faced so far.....I will back the pats once again here getting another favorable line!!!!!!
8unit- Seattle -1
The jags are coming off 2 very big divisional wins and now must travel cross country to play the seahawks who should have there qb hassleback back and everyone knows the seahawks are very tough at home with that home crowd.........I will take the seahawks at home with a short number against a jags team traveling along way!!!!!!
8unit- Vikings/Rams under 41
Well the vikes are off there emotional win on monday nite traveling to st.louis and the rams are just not very good and with there problems on the offensive line going against and aggressive vikes front line and jared allen not good for the rams but just question the vikes heart here to come in and put this team away i think the vikes do win this rather easily but it just might not be real pretty........I will take the under here and make these two prove it to me!!!!!!
5unit- Kansas city +9
I know the chiefs are awful but just believe that getting this many points in back2back home games is enticing also like i mentioned above this cowboys team just does not have a gamebreaker,,,,,,,So i will back the chiefs and hope they can keep it close!!!!!!
2team parlay- carolina -4/ne -3
2team parlay- sea -1/sea/jax under 44.5
2team parlay- kc +9/minn/stl under 41
15unit- Carolina -4 (Top play)
Well the redskins lost to the lions and then just got by a pathetic tampa bay club at home this redskins offense is inept now they go on the road to carolina who has struggled but they have been good in the past at home and there coming off there bye week where they got alot off there chest and challenging one another have to not only believe that they come to play here but think coach fox takes the ball out of qb delhomme hands and pounds the rock here when your in need of a win you have to get tough and that happens up front with the offensive line.........Lets back the panthers to get there first win as our top play this week!!!!!!!!!
10unit- New England -3
Denver did a great job beating the cowboys last week but the question is was it great play by the broncos or just terrible play by romo also dallas has no game breaker or go to guy that was obivious late in that game well trust me this pats team has a top qb who is starting to get it going and they can streatch the field also orton was very lucky at least 3 times last week he should have been picked this is without question the best team the broncos have faced so far.....I will back the pats once again here getting another favorable line!!!!!!
8unit- Seattle -1
The jags are coming off 2 very big divisional wins and now must travel cross country to play the seahawks who should have there qb hassleback back and everyone knows the seahawks are very tough at home with that home crowd.........I will take the seahawks at home with a short number against a jags team traveling along way!!!!!!
8unit- Vikings/Rams under 41
Well the vikes are off there emotional win on monday nite traveling to st.louis and the rams are just not very good and with there problems on the offensive line going against and aggressive vikes front line and jared allen not good for the rams but just question the vikes heart here to come in and put this team away i think the vikes do win this rather easily but it just might not be real pretty........I will take the under here and make these two prove it to me!!!!!!
5unit- Kansas city +9
I know the chiefs are awful but just believe that getting this many points in back2back home games is enticing also like i mentioned above this cowboys team just does not have a gamebreaker,,,,,,,So i will back the chiefs and hope they can keep it close!!!!!!
2team parlay- carolina -4/ne -3
2team parlay- sea -1/sea/jax under 44.5
2team parlay- kc +9/minn/stl under 41
Kevin O’Neill
Texans (+5½) over @Cardinals
This season thus far the Texans are 2-2, the
Cardinals 1-2. Last year during the regular season
the Texans were 8-8, the Cardinals were 9-7. In
2007 both teams were 8-8. In 2006 Houston was 6-
10, Arizona was 5-11. So back to the start of the
2006 season the Texans are 24-28, while the
Cardinals are 23-28, with both teams being within a
game of one another in the standings each and
every year. Importantly, these records were
achieved in divisions of remarkably different
strength. The Cardinals have played in the weakest
division in football over that stretch, benefiting from
two games per year against Rams and 49ers teams that
have largely been awful over that time, while Seattle has
been up and down. The Texans have dealt with a
Jacksonville team that has been up and down and
Indianapolis and Tennessee clubs that are annually near
the top of the powerful AFC.
Both teams have some decent playmakers on defense, but
struggle overall defensively. It seems that both should be
better on D when you look at the rosters. They both have
good passing attacks, and feature some of the best
receivers in football. The Texans have had the better run
offense over the time period we’re looking at, and they
averaged 4.3 yards per rush last year to 3.4 yards per rush
for the Cardinals.
So with all the equality in these two franchises, why is
Arizona such a substantial favorite? Obviously the answer
is last season’s playoff run. The Cardinals had a
magnificent tear through the NFL playoffs, beating a young
Atlanta club in their first playoff game, taking out a
Carolina team that after the way they’ve started this
season is an obvious fraud, and then playing well to beat
Philadelphia. The Cards stepped up after some real regular
season disappointment against top competition to beat
three flawed teams in a weak conference thanks to a 12-3
turnover advantage in those games. They then played
exceptionally well in the Super Bowl but lost.
Now the Cardinals are dealing with the after-effects of that
success. There are egos bruised because they didn’t get
paid, undoubtedly there is jealousy toward those who did
get the money, and they have an aging quarterback who
overcame his recent history of fragility to lead them to the
Super Bowl. There are reasons that Super Bowl teams,
especially the Super Bowl losers, struggle the year after
their successful runs.
This is a need game for the Cards but it’s not like the
Texans want to pass up an opportunity when they’re in the
first of a 4 road games in 5 stretch and they have only one
home game between now and the Sunday before
Thanksgiving. Cardinals have a good home record the past
two years but those were earned against weak divisional
opponents and teams overlooking them. Houston fires
their best shot here, which may be enough to score the
upset. Texans by 1.
@Falcons (+2½) over @49ers
As Erik projected here last week, the 49ers
stampeded the Rams 35-0, showing once again that
it is amazing that Kyle Boller is still in the league.
Two things happened in that game. First of all, the
Niners had to do next to nothing to win the game
against the hapless Rams. Teams that generate 13
first downs and 229 yards on 4 yards per play
ordinarily don’t find themselves scoring 5 TD’s. And
in fact, only two of those TD’s were scored on
offense, with the others being a fumble recovery, a
fumble return, and an interception return. And
both of the offensive scoring drives started in Rams
territory.
Secondly, the Niners have become the toast of the
league. All the post-game shows were talking them
up. Not quite to the Broncos level, but there was a
lot of “wow! 35-0! We need to pay attention to this
team. I mean we need to pay some serious
attention to them!” has been the mantra in the
media since the Rams win.
So the Niners, off an easy, breezy win, will be told
all week how good they are. Meanwhile, the
Falcons played poorly in New England two weeks
ago, and are off their bye week. Obviously the bye
is more meaningful later in the season when it
comes to healing bumps and bruises, but it doesn’t
hurt that the Falcons come off a rare bad game
(haven’t been many in the year+ since Mike Smith
was hired) and have two weeks to stew over it.
Loss of Frank Gore will catch up with the Niners
against a decent run defense like Atlanta. The way
you hurt the Falcons is through the air, and Frisco’s
Shaun Hill has been decent, which is about all you’re
going to get out him. Unquestionably the superior
quarterback here is Matt Ryan.
Interesting subplot to this game was that the
reported runner up for the Falcons job a couple of
years ago was Mike Singletary, Arthur Blank
bypassed him in order to hire Bobby Petrino, of all
people. Not really a factor here, just interesting.
Singletary might use it to try to motivate his players
just a tad. And Singletary is a fine motivator, and a
good coach. But we like the performance pattern
setup in this one, and find Atlanta to be a solid
team. The Falcons won all 5 of their games after
losses last year, going 4-1 against the spread. The
covers were by 17, 8, 21, and 16. The non-cover
was by 2.5 and they had a 3-1 turnover deficit in
that game yet still found a way to win.
These teams are likely pretty similar in ability, but
there’s no Frank Gore and it’s a good setup for a
strong Atlanta performance. Falcons by 4.
Texans (+5½) over @Cardinals
This season thus far the Texans are 2-2, the
Cardinals 1-2. Last year during the regular season
the Texans were 8-8, the Cardinals were 9-7. In
2007 both teams were 8-8. In 2006 Houston was 6-
10, Arizona was 5-11. So back to the start of the
2006 season the Texans are 24-28, while the
Cardinals are 23-28, with both teams being within a
game of one another in the standings each and
every year. Importantly, these records were
achieved in divisions of remarkably different
strength. The Cardinals have played in the weakest
division in football over that stretch, benefiting from
two games per year against Rams and 49ers teams that
have largely been awful over that time, while Seattle has
been up and down. The Texans have dealt with a
Jacksonville team that has been up and down and
Indianapolis and Tennessee clubs that are annually near
the top of the powerful AFC.
Both teams have some decent playmakers on defense, but
struggle overall defensively. It seems that both should be
better on D when you look at the rosters. They both have
good passing attacks, and feature some of the best
receivers in football. The Texans have had the better run
offense over the time period we’re looking at, and they
averaged 4.3 yards per rush last year to 3.4 yards per rush
for the Cardinals.
So with all the equality in these two franchises, why is
Arizona such a substantial favorite? Obviously the answer
is last season’s playoff run. The Cardinals had a
magnificent tear through the NFL playoffs, beating a young
Atlanta club in their first playoff game, taking out a
Carolina team that after the way they’ve started this
season is an obvious fraud, and then playing well to beat
Philadelphia. The Cards stepped up after some real regular
season disappointment against top competition to beat
three flawed teams in a weak conference thanks to a 12-3
turnover advantage in those games. They then played
exceptionally well in the Super Bowl but lost.
Now the Cardinals are dealing with the after-effects of that
success. There are egos bruised because they didn’t get
paid, undoubtedly there is jealousy toward those who did
get the money, and they have an aging quarterback who
overcame his recent history of fragility to lead them to the
Super Bowl. There are reasons that Super Bowl teams,
especially the Super Bowl losers, struggle the year after
their successful runs.
This is a need game for the Cards but it’s not like the
Texans want to pass up an opportunity when they’re in the
first of a 4 road games in 5 stretch and they have only one
home game between now and the Sunday before
Thanksgiving. Cardinals have a good home record the past
two years but those were earned against weak divisional
opponents and teams overlooking them. Houston fires
their best shot here, which may be enough to score the
upset. Texans by 1.
@Falcons (+2½) over @49ers
As Erik projected here last week, the 49ers
stampeded the Rams 35-0, showing once again that
it is amazing that Kyle Boller is still in the league.
Two things happened in that game. First of all, the
Niners had to do next to nothing to win the game
against the hapless Rams. Teams that generate 13
first downs and 229 yards on 4 yards per play
ordinarily don’t find themselves scoring 5 TD’s. And
in fact, only two of those TD’s were scored on
offense, with the others being a fumble recovery, a
fumble return, and an interception return. And
both of the offensive scoring drives started in Rams
territory.
Secondly, the Niners have become the toast of the
league. All the post-game shows were talking them
up. Not quite to the Broncos level, but there was a
lot of “wow! 35-0! We need to pay attention to this
team. I mean we need to pay some serious
attention to them!” has been the mantra in the
media since the Rams win.
So the Niners, off an easy, breezy win, will be told
all week how good they are. Meanwhile, the
Falcons played poorly in New England two weeks
ago, and are off their bye week. Obviously the bye
is more meaningful later in the season when it
comes to healing bumps and bruises, but it doesn’t
hurt that the Falcons come off a rare bad game
(haven’t been many in the year+ since Mike Smith
was hired) and have two weeks to stew over it.
Loss of Frank Gore will catch up with the Niners
against a decent run defense like Atlanta. The way
you hurt the Falcons is through the air, and Frisco’s
Shaun Hill has been decent, which is about all you’re
going to get out him. Unquestionably the superior
quarterback here is Matt Ryan.
Interesting subplot to this game was that the
reported runner up for the Falcons job a couple of
years ago was Mike Singletary, Arthur Blank
bypassed him in order to hire Bobby Petrino, of all
people. Not really a factor here, just interesting.
Singletary might use it to try to motivate his players
just a tad. And Singletary is a fine motivator, and a
good coach. But we like the performance pattern
setup in this one, and find Atlanta to be a solid
team. The Falcons won all 5 of their games after
losses last year, going 4-1 against the spread. The
covers were by 17, 8, 21, and 16. The non-cover
was by 2.5 and they had a 3-1 turnover deficit in
that game yet still found a way to win.
These teams are likely pretty similar in ability, but
there’s no Frank Gore and it’s a good setup for a
strong Atlanta performance. Falcons by 4.
MTI
NFL Selections / Week 5
Side Play
5-Star KANSAS CITY +8’ over Dallas – The Cowboys lost 17-10
in Denver last week. The relied way too much on Tony Romo’s
arm rather than the legs of their running backs. Romo threw 42 passes
and was sacked five times on their 72 offensive plays. This means that
a pass play was called on 47 plays and a run on only 25 plays. What’s
really surprising about this is that the game was a close one. When a
team passes this much, it’s usually because they are behind. This type
of pass/ratio foretells bad things for the Cowboys. In fact, Dallas is
0-23 ATS since November 1993 the week after they threw at least
eight passes more than their season-to-date pass attempts per game as
a favorite. This is Dallas’ trend number one in the 2009 KillerSports.
com NFL Annual. There are still copies of the Annual available. For
a special offer that includes a subscription to the newsletter and the
Annual, see the back cover of this issue. Note that the Annual has
640 perfect team trends—40 for each team. The SDQL is included
for each trend so you can query them yourself and save them to your
personal trend file if desired.
Dallas was 0-3 ATS in this situation in 2007 and 0-2 last season.
In these five most recent games, Dallas is 0-5 ATS, failing to cover by
a staggering 17.3 ppg. This margin indicates a 10-point straight up
loss here and this result would not surprise us at all.
The Cowboys have been HORRENDOUS as big road chalk.
Dallas is 0-11 ATS as a TD+ road favorite, going 4-7 straight up.
Finally, we have a league-wide, multi-season system involving
yards per rush differential that indicates the Chiefs are the play. So
far in 2009, the Cowboys have averaged 5.95 yards per carry, which
is number one in the league. Kansas City is ranked near the bottom
at only 3.72 yards per rush. Those handicappers that are not fluent in
SDQL will cite this as a reason to play ON the Cowboys. However,
TD+ road favorites that have a season-to-date yards-per-rush that is
more than one yard high then their opponent are 0-13 ATS since late
1998, failing to cover by an average of 12.4 ppg. Simply put, a high
season-to-date yards per rush is not conducive to covering the spread
as a big road dog. The last active date in this situation came in week 7
last season. These Cowboys were a 7-point road favorite vs the Rams
and they got hammered 34-14.
The Chiefs have faced three tough opponents and the Raiders this
season. They lost to Oakland at home on a late TD drive. Their losses
to the Ravens, Giants and Eagles in Philadelphia are understandable.
We would actually be surprised if the Cowboys won straight up
here. Consider the Chiefs on the Moneyline.
KANSAS CITY 24 Dallas 13
Newsletter Totals Play
4-Star Cincinnati at Baltimore UNDER 42 – The Ravens are off
their first loss of the season to drop to 3-1. The Bengals are off
wins in each of the past two weeks to get to 3-1 on the season. We
have a league-wide, record-based system for each of these records and
both point to the UNDER.
Since the start of the database in 1989, the league is 0-9 OU as a
single-digit away dog by more than 3 points when they won their last
two games to get to 3-1 for the season and they are not off a bye. The
league has stayed under by an average of 12.2 ppg in this situation,
with two winners in 2008.
Also, since the start of the database in 1989, the league is 0-4 OU
as a TD+ home favorite off a loss as a dog to drop them to 3-1 on the
season. The record of 0-4 is not that strong, but the interesting thing
is that these big home favorites have allowed an average of 8.5 ppg and
every single on of the four games has stayed under by double digits.
The Ravens have produced a string of UNDERs when they are off
a loss in a game that was rated close to a toss-up by the linesmakers.
Baltimore is 0-8 OU when they are at home off a loss in which the
line for the game was within three of pick, as long as that loss was
not their home opener. The Ravens have stayed under the total by an
average of 10.8 ppg in this situation.
This is an important divisional game for Baltimore and they will
not risk giving the Bengals any hope by risking an early turnover.
They should play it very close-to-the-vest—especially in the early going
—waiting for the Bengals to make the first mistake. As evidence,
the Ravens are 0-7 OU (-11.6 ppg) at home when they won their
last two home games.
Last week against the Patriots, the Ravens had 363 yards of total
offense and 24 first downs, but they scored only 21 points and seven
of them were off a fumble return in the end zone. This is a strong
UNDER situation for them, as they are 0-13 OU (-9.7 ppg) since
1997 when they are off a game in which they had at least 330 yards
of offense, at least 20 first downs but scored 21 or fewer points.
In a similar vein, the Bengals are 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) when they are
off a game in which they had 20+ first downs and at least 30 minutes
of possession time and both qualifying games from last season stayed
under by double digits.
Finally, the Bengals are 0-6 OU (-14.9 ppg) as a 7+ dog the week
after a win in which they were outgained and 0-6 OU (-8.2 ppg) as
a 7+ dog when their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts
per game is greater than 35. Take these two UNDER.
BALTIMORE 24 Cincinnati 6
NFL Selections / Week 5
Side Play
5-Star KANSAS CITY +8’ over Dallas – The Cowboys lost 17-10
in Denver last week. The relied way too much on Tony Romo’s
arm rather than the legs of their running backs. Romo threw 42 passes
and was sacked five times on their 72 offensive plays. This means that
a pass play was called on 47 plays and a run on only 25 plays. What’s
really surprising about this is that the game was a close one. When a
team passes this much, it’s usually because they are behind. This type
of pass/ratio foretells bad things for the Cowboys. In fact, Dallas is
0-23 ATS since November 1993 the week after they threw at least
eight passes more than their season-to-date pass attempts per game as
a favorite. This is Dallas’ trend number one in the 2009 KillerSports.
com NFL Annual. There are still copies of the Annual available. For
a special offer that includes a subscription to the newsletter and the
Annual, see the back cover of this issue. Note that the Annual has
640 perfect team trends—40 for each team. The SDQL is included
for each trend so you can query them yourself and save them to your
personal trend file if desired.
Dallas was 0-3 ATS in this situation in 2007 and 0-2 last season.
In these five most recent games, Dallas is 0-5 ATS, failing to cover by
a staggering 17.3 ppg. This margin indicates a 10-point straight up
loss here and this result would not surprise us at all.
The Cowboys have been HORRENDOUS as big road chalk.
Dallas is 0-11 ATS as a TD+ road favorite, going 4-7 straight up.
Finally, we have a league-wide, multi-season system involving
yards per rush differential that indicates the Chiefs are the play. So
far in 2009, the Cowboys have averaged 5.95 yards per carry, which
is number one in the league. Kansas City is ranked near the bottom
at only 3.72 yards per rush. Those handicappers that are not fluent in
SDQL will cite this as a reason to play ON the Cowboys. However,
TD+ road favorites that have a season-to-date yards-per-rush that is
more than one yard high then their opponent are 0-13 ATS since late
1998, failing to cover by an average of 12.4 ppg. Simply put, a high
season-to-date yards per rush is not conducive to covering the spread
as a big road dog. The last active date in this situation came in week 7
last season. These Cowboys were a 7-point road favorite vs the Rams
and they got hammered 34-14.
The Chiefs have faced three tough opponents and the Raiders this
season. They lost to Oakland at home on a late TD drive. Their losses
to the Ravens, Giants and Eagles in Philadelphia are understandable.
We would actually be surprised if the Cowboys won straight up
here. Consider the Chiefs on the Moneyline.
KANSAS CITY 24 Dallas 13
Newsletter Totals Play
4-Star Cincinnati at Baltimore UNDER 42 – The Ravens are off
their first loss of the season to drop to 3-1. The Bengals are off
wins in each of the past two weeks to get to 3-1 on the season. We
have a league-wide, record-based system for each of these records and
both point to the UNDER.
Since the start of the database in 1989, the league is 0-9 OU as a
single-digit away dog by more than 3 points when they won their last
two games to get to 3-1 for the season and they are not off a bye. The
league has stayed under by an average of 12.2 ppg in this situation,
with two winners in 2008.
Also, since the start of the database in 1989, the league is 0-4 OU
as a TD+ home favorite off a loss as a dog to drop them to 3-1 on the
season. The record of 0-4 is not that strong, but the interesting thing
is that these big home favorites have allowed an average of 8.5 ppg and
every single on of the four games has stayed under by double digits.
The Ravens have produced a string of UNDERs when they are off
a loss in a game that was rated close to a toss-up by the linesmakers.
Baltimore is 0-8 OU when they are at home off a loss in which the
line for the game was within three of pick, as long as that loss was
not their home opener. The Ravens have stayed under the total by an
average of 10.8 ppg in this situation.
This is an important divisional game for Baltimore and they will
not risk giving the Bengals any hope by risking an early turnover.
They should play it very close-to-the-vest—especially in the early going
—waiting for the Bengals to make the first mistake. As evidence,
the Ravens are 0-7 OU (-11.6 ppg) at home when they won their
last two home games.
Last week against the Patriots, the Ravens had 363 yards of total
offense and 24 first downs, but they scored only 21 points and seven
of them were off a fumble return in the end zone. This is a strong
UNDER situation for them, as they are 0-13 OU (-9.7 ppg) since
1997 when they are off a game in which they had at least 330 yards
of offense, at least 20 first downs but scored 21 or fewer points.
In a similar vein, the Bengals are 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) when they are
off a game in which they had 20+ first downs and at least 30 minutes
of possession time and both qualifying games from last season stayed
under by double digits.
Finally, the Bengals are 0-6 OU (-14.9 ppg) as a 7+ dog the week
after a win in which they were outgained and 0-6 OU (-8.2 ppg) as
a 7+ dog when their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts
per game is greater than 35. Take these two UNDER.
BALTIMORE 24 Cincinnati 6
