Service Plays Sunday 10/11/09

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Sports Book Breakers

Newsletter Side Play
4-Star Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO—This is a match-up of
two very similar teams. Both have had shaky play on both sides
of the ball. However, Cleveland appeared to be heading in the right
direction after a 23-20 loss to Cincinnati in OT last week. The Bills
on the other hand have been a disaster the past two games, including
a 31-3 loss against the Chad Henne led Miami last week.
In that loss to the Dolphins last week, their delta points allowed
was 19.0. The Bills have not recovered well after these kind of games
against rival Miami, as they are 0-18 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since November
24, 1991 as no more than a 10-point favorite, after facing the
Dolphins and having a positive dpa
The Browns had a delta points scored of 4.0 against the Bengals last
week while gaining 22 first downs. The Browns are 8-0 ATS (4.5 ppg)
since 2007 when they got 20+ first downs last game and had a positive
dpa (0<pPS and 20<=p:FD and team=Browns and season>=2007).
Cleveland came up big on third downs defensively against Cincinnati
for the first time this year, holding them to 6-for-19 on conversions.
The Browns are 9-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) the week after they lost as a
dog while holding the opponent on at least 10 third down attempts.
Cleveland has been good at both rebounding from close losses and
taking advantage of opponents while they are down. The Browns are
7-0 ATS (4.1 ppg) since December 18, 2005 on the road when their
opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak (team=Browns and A and
op:L and opp:L and opp:season=season and 20051218<=date). Also,
Cleveland is 6-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since November 06, 2005 when they
lost 1-3 points last week (team=Browns and -3<=p:margin<0 and
p:week+1=week and 20051106<=date).
This could be considered a trap game for the Browns between
games against divisional rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, however
with teams as bad as these two, any winnable game is a big one. This
has held true for Cleveland recently as they are 6-0 ATS (6.7 ppg)
since September 22, 2002 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent
between divisional opponents (team=Browns and D and pIV and
NDIV and nIV and po:week+2=no:week and 20020922<=date).
Cleveland actually got their last win in Buffalo on week 11 of last
year, so they know they can win here. With Pittsburgh, Green Bay,
Chicago and Baltimore as their next four games, the Browns are going
to be putting everything they have into winning this one, as it might
be awhile before their next chance to win.
With home field advantage not overly important in this one, the
line should be around even. Take advantage of these extra points.

Cleveland 21, BUFFALO 20


Top Total
4-STAR New England and DENVER Over 41—Both of these
teams have yet to be explosive offensively this year because
they’ve been doing what it takes to win. In this one, it’s going to take
putting points on the board to win.
Last week, the Broncos were not very disciplined against the
Cowboys, committing 10 penalties. The Broncos are 12-0 OU (9.8
ppg) since September 21, 1997 the week after at home in which
they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The is also a good league situation as the
League is 9-0 OU (8.1 ppg) since September 23, 2007 at home the
week after a straight up win at home in which they had at least 3
more penalties than their season-to-date average
average last week in wins. The Broncos are 8-0-2 OU (8.0
ppg) in database history at home the week after a straight up win
in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than
their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0-1 OU
(10.3 ppg) since December 20, 2004 the game after they allowed
at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average
Look for both these teams to feature strong balanced attacks

DENVER 27, New England 24

 

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Winning Points

NFL

****BEST BET
New England over *Denver by 21
Denver’s record says 4-0.The Broncos have yielded an average of 6.5 points
per game.Are the Broncos really this good? Our answer is a resounding NO.
The Broncos stole their opener from Cincinnati. They followed that up
with victories against Cleveland and Oakland – combined record of 1-7 –
and then beat a flat Dallas squad traveling on a short week at home. It
wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos lose their next four games starting
with this one.Denver won’t be able to hide a patchwork secondary and
a front seven composed of mainly castoffs against Tom Brady, who is getting
more in sync having played four games since his knee injury and with
Wes Welker back healthy. Denver is 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
The Broncos are 7-17-1 ATS following a victory. It’s pupil against master.
Broncos’ first year head coach Josh McDaniels was Bill Belichick’s quarterback
coach last year. Belichick will have his team up for this matchup.
Denver is the only team Belichick has a losing record against.The Patriots
destroyed the Broncos last year, 41-7. New England has yet to give up 300
yards passing this season. Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is just a glorified
game manager. He’s at his best when he’s staying out of his own way by not
throwing downfield. The Broncos could be without their most effective
back this season, Correll Buckhalter. He suffered an ankle injury last
Sunday.The Patriots have covered eight of the past nine times they’ve been
a road favorite of four or more points. The Patriots could even get back
their best defensive player, linebacker Jerod Mayo (check status). NEW
ENGLAND 31-10.

***BEST BET
*Carolina over Washington by 18
When we last saw the Redskins away from FedEx Field, they were helping
Detroit end its 19-game loss streak.That shouldn’t be so shocking considering
it was the fifth straight time Washington has lost on the road. The
Redskins have been held to 20 points or less in 11 of their past 12 games.
The Jim Zorn watch is in full blossom. A narrow home victory (and noncover)
against a bad Tampa Bay squad at home last week changes nothing.
Washington has lost eight of its last 12 games. The Redskins are deficient
both in the run game, missing their best run-blocking guard Randy Thomas,
and in their passing attack with inadequate pass protection and Santana
Moss as the lone big-play threat. Quarterback Jason Campbell isn’t good
enough to produce points unless he has multiple weapons, which he doesn’t.
Clinton Portis is banged-up and clearly not as good as he once was.The
Panthers come off their bye a desperate team at 0-3, their worst start in 11
years. Jake Delhomme has committed 15 turnovers in his last 16 games and
injuries have left the Panthers vulnerable to power ground attacks. They
entered their bye ranked 29th in run defense.During their time off, though,
the Panthers did something about this signing 340-pound, 14-year veteran
run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. Delhomme is on a short leash despite recently
signing a big contract extension. He should be fine in this matchup with
extra time to prepare and at home.The Panthers have a strong 1-2 running
punch of DeAngelo Williams and a now-healthy Jonathan Stewart. Steve
Smith remains a premier deep threat. John Fox gives Carolina a coaching
edge. CAROLINA 30-12.

Preferred 2*

Cincinnati over *Baltimore by 2
If it weren’t for a fluke, tipped-pass that went for a late touchdown, the
Bengals would be unbeaten. Unlike Denver, though, the Bengals’ record
isn’t a fluke. Cincinnati has a very talented defense with just about every
position manned by a high draft choice. The Ravens are strong, too. This
key division showdown should be a close battle. The line is inflated.The
Ravens’ first two home games were against Kansas City and Cleveland, two
teams that have yet to win a game in eight tries. Baltimore’s weakness is its
cornerbacks are not nearly as good as in previous seasons. Carson Palmer
can attack them. He has a big weapon with Chad Ochocinco.The Ravens
haven’t allowed a running back to gain 100 yards against them in an NFLhigh
39 straight games. Cedric Benson probably won’t end that streak, but
he’s emerged as a credible back that the Ravens can’t ignore in order to
blitz all out against Palmer.The Bengals have showed their heart, desire and
improvement upsetting Green Bay as a similarly-priced road ‘dog and then
coming from behind to edge Pittsburgh. Cincinnati did struggle with the
Browns last week, but it was an obvious flat spot in between Pittsburgh
and this huge matchup. CINCINNATI 23-21.

Dallas over *Kansas City by 17
This isn’t so much a play on Dallas as it is a strong fade on the Chiefs, losers
of 14 of their last 15 at Arrowhead Stadium. This includes dropping
their last eight home contests. The Cowboys have too much team speed
and athleticism for a slow Kansas City offense that has lost faith already.
Todd Haley is another of these first-year head coaches in over his head.
He’s already impaired the confidence level of quarterback Matt Cassel.
Dwayne Bowe, the team’s only legitimate receiving threat, is slowed by a
hamstring injury and has lost his edge, too, because of Haley’s head games.
The Chiefs have nowhere to turn because Larry Johnson isn’t doing the job
on the ground, averaging less than three yards per carry. He’s only scored
two touchdowns in his last 12 games. It’s not like the Chiefs have a dominant
defense that can pick up the slack. Tony Romo should find Kansas
City’s porous secondary to his liking. Look for Romo to play better being
away from the pressure of being in the spotlight in Dallas’ new billion dollar
stadium. Dallas won’t have Felix Jones. However, Marion Barber and
underrated Tashard Choice are good running backs and Jason Witten is one
of the best tight ends in the NFL. DALLAS 30-13.

Close Calls

Minnesota over *St. Louis by 6
The Vikings are lucky to draw the Rams after hosting Green Bay in one of
the biggest Monday night games of all time.The Rams last tasted victory in
Week 6 of last season. Steve Spagnuolo is in the early stages of a massive
rebuilding job. The Rams have failed to cover 10 of the past 13 times
they’ve been a home ‘dog and are 5-14 ATS when facing a team with a winning
record. Marc Bulger (check status) no longer is an effective quarterback,
but he’s still better than journeyman Kyle Boller. The Rams have
scored just three touchdowns all season. MINNESOTA 23-17.

*Philadelphia over Tampa Bay by 13
The Eagles are very tough following a bye covering eight of the past nine
times.Tampa Bay’s defense is way down from previous years. Philadelphia
expects to have its two major weapons back, Donovan McNabb and Brian
Westbrook. The Buccaneers have surrendered 200-plus rushing yards in
two of their last three games.Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offense to trade
points with the rested Eagles. Josh Johnson will be making just his second
NFL start.The Eagles are one of the toughest foes for a young quarterback
to face with their multiple blitz schemes. PHILADELPHIA 27-14.

*New York Giants over Oakland by 14
Returning home after winning three straight road games and with Eli
Manning suffering a bruised heel, the Giants might be ripe for a flat performance.
Don’t hold your breath. The Raiders lack the passing game to
take advantage of New York’s injuries in its secondary. The Raiders have
only 45 completions, lowest in the NFL. JaMarcus Russell is the only starting
quarterback completing less than 40 percent. Traveling to the East
Coast for an early start time is tough on Oakland, too.The Giants are 12-5
ATS versus teams with a losing record. NY GIANTS 21-7.

*Buffalo over Cleveland by 7
In this week’s Who Cares Game we find the Bills hosting the Browns, who
are as bad if not worse than their expansion team of 1999. Cleveland hasn’t
scored a touchdown on offense in eight of its last 10 games.The Browns
have turned to unpredictable Derek Anderson. It almost worked last week
catching a flat Bengals squad.The Bills can’t afford to take any team lightly.
They have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. They do own
weapons with Terrell Owens, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch.There’s just
not a competent starting quarterback. BUFFALO 23-16.

Pittsburgh over *Detroit by 10
The Lions are improved under new coach Jim Schwartz, but not to the
point where they can hang close at home against the defending Super
Bowl champions. The Steelers may not have Willie Parker (check status),
but they hold huge edges in the trenches in this matchup.The Lions have
allowed 24 or more points in 22 of their last 26 games. Detroit has failed to
cover nine of its last 11 home games.The Steelers are hoping to get back
star safety Troy Polamalu, while the Lions likely could be without promising
rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford. PITTSBURGH 27-17.

Atlanta over *San Francisco by 2
San Francisco does two things for Mike Singletary – play hard and cover
spreads.The 49ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games.The 49ers are idle
next week so they’ll probably hold out Frank Gore for another game.
There’s a big drop from Gore to Glen Coffee. The Falcons’ star running
back, Michael Turner, is off to a mediocre start averaging 75.3 yards rushing.
The Falcons should be well prepared for San Francisco, though.They
were idle last week and already have faced two 3-4 defenses in Miami and
New England.ATLANTA 16-14.

*Arizona over Houston by 3
The glass slipper isn’t fitting so well these days for the Cardinals. Their
offensive line is back to being suspect. They’ve also lost twice at home
already.The Texans have plenty of weapons, but have yet to prove they can
step up on the road. Matt Schaub has 981 yards passing and eight touchdowns
in his last three games.The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 15
home contests under Ken Whisenhunt,going 9-6 ATS.The Cardinals have 18
starters back from their Super Bowl club.They are healthy and rested having
had a bye last week.ARIZONA 26-23.

*Seattle over Jacksonville by 5
The Jaguars have some momentum off two straight division victories.
However, they still have lost 14 of their past 21 games and are traveling
three time zones into possible wet weather while dealing with the loudest
outdoor stadiums in the league. Seattle is 10-5-1 ATS in its past 16 games at
Qwest Field.The Seahawks are getting healthier on defense with linebacker
Lofa Tatupu back.The key question is how healthy Seattle will be offense?
Matt Hasselbeck (check status) has missed the last two games and offensive
linemen Walter Jones and Sean Locklear have been out. SEATTLE 24-19.

Indianapolis over *Tennessee by 7
Look for the Colts to extend their regular-season win streak to 14 games,
while the Titans remain winless. No doubt the frustrated Titans will be firedup
hosting their division arch-rival.The Titans are the most disappointing
team so far, but they haven’t been as bad as their record.They’ve committed
11 turnovers after having 13 last season. Their secondary can’t keep
Peyton Manning in check, especially if Cortland Finnegan remains out with
a hamstring injury. Manning has tossed nine touchdowns and is on pace to
throw for a career-high 5,344 yards. INDIANAPOLIS 32-25.

New York Jets over *Miami by 3 (Monday)
New York’s defense has yielded only three touchdowns. The Jets will be
coming hard after second-year pro Chad Henne, who will be making only
his second NFL start.The Dolphins want Henne just to manage the game
even though he has a bigger arm than Chad Pennington. Miami has outrushed
its four opponents, 734-244, behind Ronnie Brown and Ricky
Williams. Expect the Jets to play eight in the box trying to force mistakes
from Henne. NY JETS 20-17.

OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Indianapolis at Tennessee – The Colts have several defensive
starters hurt, but are averaging 30.6 points in their last three games and
face a porous Tennessee secondary.

UNDER: Oakland at New York Giants - The Raiders are averaging less
than 100 passing in their last three games, while Eli Manning may not be
100 percent.

UNDER: Atlanta at San Francisco – Take away a miracle touchdown
pass from Brett Favre, and the 49ers would be giving up just 11.5 points
per game.

 

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Logical Approach

NFL

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA - 3 ½ over Washington - Washington struggled more than they should have in rallying to defeat Tampa Bay last week and now take to the road to face a rested 0-3 Carolina. Their two wins have come against winless Tampa and St Louis and now they face another winless team. Carolina is rested following their Bye and should be better prepared after having the extra time to address their concerns and deficiencies. Both teams have QB issues with Washington's Campbell struggling every bit as much as Carolina's Delhomme. The Panther do have the better coach, a better balanced running game and the potentially stronger passing game. They have also faced an overall tougher schedule. The Redskins have put up the better defensive stats but the talent on both teams is even. Carolina's Bye has also allowed for injuries to heal which makes them the healthier team. Washington RB Portis has been banged up in the early going and his productivity has been slowed as a result. Carolina gets their first win, 23-10.

Other Featured NFL Selections :
BALTIMORE - 8 ½ over Cincinnati - Cincinnati is clearly an improved team, especially on defense, although they have allowed more rushing yards in each successive game this season. Baltimore is steamed after losing in New England last week despite playing very well on both sides of the football. QB Flacco continues to impress in leading the offense while the defense continues to be superb. And although the Ravens have also allowed more rushing yards each game its been on a totally different level than the Bengals. Baltimore allowed 29 rushing yards to Kansas City in their opener and just 85 last week to the Pats. They lead the NFL in allowing just 60 ypg on the ground, just 2.6 per rush. Baltimore's well balanced offense ranks # 5 rushing and # 6 passing. Off a loss, with the Divisional lead at stake and playing at home in the first of their two games this season suggests the intangibles support the more experienced host. Baltimore wins 27-14.

New England - 3 ½ over DENVER - It may be time to start believing in the 4-0 Broncos after they finally defeated a Playoff quality team with last week's win over Dallas. They again step up in class to face a New England team that is not as dominant as they were two seasons ago but are still an elite team. The intrigue surrounding this game involves Denver head coach McDaniels who served 7 seasons on New England's staff including the last 3 as offensive coordinator. Denver QB Orten has fared well leading his new team. Patriots' QB Brady is getting closer to peak form with each game after missing virtually all of 2008 due to injury. Denver's defense has been outstanding but that plays into the strength of Patriot coach Belichick and his ability to prepare. This game could have home field implications for the Playoffs. And history suggests the teacher generally has the edge over the pupil in first time matchups. Expect a well played game with minimal mistakes and with the more talented and experienced team getting a solid win. New England wins 27-17.

TENNESSEE + 3 ½ over Indianapolis - After starting last season 10-0, Tennessee has dropped 8 of their last 11 games including all 4 this season. The first three were all competitive losses before last week's one sided home loss to Jacksonville. Their season is all but shot as only San Diego, in 1992, made the Playoffs after starting 0-4. Indianapolis is 4-0 with outstanding play on both sides of the football. These teams have split their season series each of the past three seasons and most have been extremely tightly contested. The on field results suggest the Colts here but long standing handicapping principles clearly point to the Titans who have burned their backers badly each of the past two weeks. And if the Colts are such an obvious play, why is this line so short? Despite the 0-4 record the Titans have some impressive stats to rely upon, including gaining 5.5 yards per rush (# 2) while defensively allowing just 2.8 per rush (# 2). Following last week's shockingly embarrassing loss, expect their best effort yet. Tennessee pulls the upset, winning 24-21.

 

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CKO

10* CLEVELAND over *Buffalo

Late Score Forecast:

CLEVELAND 24 - *Buffalo 19

 

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DONNIE BLACK

Best Bet: Cincinnati +7.5
Baltimore (-7) 34 at Cincinnati 3 - 2008 O/U 42 10 am PT

 

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GOLD SHEET

NFL KEY RELEASES

PHILADELPHIA by 27 over Tampa Bay
BALTIMORE by 18 over Cincinnati
UNDER THE TOTAL in the New England-Denver


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11

Minnesota 27 - ST. LOUIS 10--Since Detroit recently experienced the heady nectar of victory, banged-up St. Louis now carrying the banner for hopeful losers everywhere after its skid reached 14 straight last week at San Francisco. And since Rams didn't require new HC Steve Spagnuolo to bring a few reinforcements with him from the Giants (Eli Manning would have been nice), should the 1976-77 Bucs start to worry? Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson & Co. have already taken care of the sad-sack Browns & Lions on the road. St. Louis even less threatening with leading receiver Laurent Robinson (ankle) done for the season.

(06-St. Louis -2 41-21...SR: Minnesota 22-16-2)

Dallas 27 - KANSAS CITY 13--Maybe they should play this one at the Cotton Bowl, where these franchises both began their existence 49 years ago. And the "good ol' days" are about all that's worth celebrating in K.C. (0-4 SU and vs. line), as Arrowhead faithful are getting impatient to see some return other than garbage-time TDs from high-priced QB acquisition Matt Cassel. But until Larry Johnson (only 2.6 ypc) gets some room to run, Chiefs' offense not likely to scare even Kansas State's defense. Would like Dallas recommendation more if Cowboys have breakaway dimension of RB Felix Jones (knee) available.

(05-DALLAS -3 31-28...SR: Dallas 5-3)

CAROLINA 23 - Washington 13--It's a plus for Washington to escape the D.C. boo-birds after narrowly avoiding humiliation last week vs. Tampa Bay (not to mention three straight non-covers vs. lowly Rams, Lions, and Bucs). But the grand plan of Jim Zorn and Vinny Cerrato to spend offseason free-agent money and top draft picks on defense instead of offense is likely going to cause each to face Dan Snyder's firing squad before long. Carolina already losing touch with Saints in NFC South, but the blitz package John Fox dusted off in recent loss at Dallas ought to come in handy vs. Jason Campbell (3 picks vs. Bucs).

(06-WASHINGTON +4 17-13...SR: Washington 7-1)

PHILADELPHIA 33 - Tampa Bay 6--Near-miss vs. sluggish Redskins hardly a "buy" signal for nearly-inept T.B, which has already changed its offensive coordinator and starting QB while its two-season losing streak has been extended to 8 games. Even if Donovan McNabb out another week, Kevin Kolb (716 YP last 2 starts!) has proven a quick study, Michael Vick's role likely to expand, and popular LB & leader Jeremiah Trotter has been re-signed. Bucs' green QB Josh Johnson & Co. unlikely to stay in touch. Note Birds' 7-2 mark last 9 as Linc chalk. (06-TAMPA BAY +5' 23-21...SR: EVEN 7-7)

NY GIANTS 27 - Oakland 6--No, the Raiders aren't in such a 50th anniversary mode that they're going to pull Tom Flores out of the radio broadcast booth to QB the team, as he did in the franchise's early days. Although we're not sure Flores (at 72!) would be much worse than JaMarcus Russell, who's passed for just 298 yards the past three games, with the offense reduced to Sebastian Janikowski FGs and not much else. Potential absence of Eli Manning (heel) could be a concern for NYG vs. some foes, but G-Men should extend margin even if backup David Carr taking the snaps. Giants 30-9 vs. line last 39!

(05-NY Giants -8 30-21...SR: Oakland 7-3)

Cleveland 23 - BUFFALO 20--This game sure isn't the NFL equivalent of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue. But it is the site of Cleveland's last triumph (Nov. 17, 2008), when Brady Quinn directed a last-second win. Now, Browns feature a new HC (Eric Mangini), new QB (Derek Anderson), and brown pants worn with white jerseys, but there's some symmetry in the idea that Cleveland will use Orchard Park to end its 10-game skid. After all, Cleveland has had a tough slate to start '09, and Anderson at least got the Browns in the end zone twice last week. Noose is tightening around Dick Jauron's neck in Buffalo (outscored 65-17 last 2).

(08-Cleve. 29-BUF. 27...B.19-18 B.38/186 C.27/161 C.14/36/0/176 B.16/26/3/148 C.0 B.1)

(08-Cleveland +5' 29-27...SR: Cleveland 10-5)

BALTIMORE 31 - Cincinnati 13--The John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco combination is 8-2 vs. the spread at home. And the Ravens were second in both offense & second scoring through the first three weeks, with Flacco showing quite a bit of the same development as did the young Drew Brees & Philip Rivers when current Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was in San Diego. Cincy obviously improved, but it's doubtful RB Cedric Benson (367 YR) will have a big day vs. the Baltimore front seven, which figures to give plenty of trouble to the rebuilt Bengal OL. Twelve of Harbaugh's 16 wins have been by double-digits.

(08-BALT. 17-Cincy 10...B.21-8 B.46/229 C.23/65 B.15/29/0/129 C.10/25/1/89 B.2 C.1)

(08-Balt. 34-CINCY 3...B.20-6 B.41/150 C.16/57 B.20/30/0/304 C.12/33/1/98 B.0 C.0)

(08-BALTIMORE +2 17-10, Baltimore -7 34-3...SR: Baltimore 15-11)

Pittsburgh 30 - DETROIT 13--Lions hustling under new coach Jim Schwartz. But their lack of depth and talent showing up in the second half, when Detroit has been outscored 78-29 (27-3 in Chicago). Plus, Steelers have fond memories of Detroit, where they won the Super Bowl four seasons ago. More importantly, Ben Roethlisberger has been on the beam with his fine cast of receivers, even when hassled out of the pocket. Don't trust Daunte Culpepper to get the ball downfield as strong-armed rookie QB Stafford (check status of knee injury) was doing. (05-PITTSBURGH -14 35-21...SR: EVEN 14-14-1)

SAN FRANCISCO 20 - Atlanta 13--S.F. a changed team since Mike Singletary took over--9-2-1 vs. the number its last 12; 4-0-1 vs. its last 5 at home. Similarly, however, the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan Atlanta HC-QB combo demonstrated plenty of resiliency LY, going 5-0 SU after a loss. So, the Gore-less 49ers face a considerable challenge. But the reliable Shaun Hill has been an uncanny QB starter under Singletary, going 5-3 SU in 2008's year of struggle, and being a desperation Brett Favre heave from 4-0 TY.

(07-ATLANTA -3' 20-16...SR: San Francisco 44-28-1)

UNDER THE TOTAL DENVER 17 - New England 16--Is one of Bill Belichick's youngest pupils ready to take on the "Hoodie?" Josh McDaniels (33) was the QBs coach the last five years in N.E., and the offensive coordinator the last three. Granted, Kyle Orton is no Tom Brady, who is 23-1 SU his last 24 regular-season starts. But McDaniels (a perfect 4-0) and Orton (no ints. TY) have done all that's been asked of them so far, and the quick, new 3-4 defense has allowed only 26 points and collected 15 sacks (8 by the Freeney-like Elvis Dumvervil). Broncs "under" all four in 2009.

(08-N. ENG. 41-Denver 7...N.25-19 N.38/257 D.26/106 D.19/29/2/169 N.18/24/0/147 N.0 D.3)

(08-NEW ENGLAND -3 41-7...SR: Denver 26-16)

ARIZONA 31 - Houston 30--Slow-starting Arizona (1-2 overall; 0-2 SU at home) is exhibiting lots of signs of recent Super Bowl losers in their ensuing year. Meanwhile, Houston showing all the signs of a team with an explosive offensive (29 ppg last 3 games) and leaky defense (29 ppg in non-Oakland games). Still, will side with potent underdog in this anticipated indoor shootout (Cards 22-9 "over" last 31; Texans 16-9 "over" last 25). Kurt Warner & Co. have scored 30 points or more in 5 of their last 7 home games overall.

(05-HOUSTON +2' 30-19...SR: Houston 1-0)

SEATTLE 27 - Jacksonville 24--Seattle won its opener, but has not covered since, with QB Matt Hasselbeck suffering rib fracture in Game Two. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has shaken off 0-2 start, scoring back-to-back wins behind capable group of "triplets"--QB Garrard 45 of 67, 3 TDs, 0 ints. in those two; RB Maurice Jones-Drew 4 TDR; and third-year WR Michael Sims-Walker 13 receptions. But keep in mind Seattle 3-2 as rare home dog L6Ys. And that Jacksonville lost its only other visit to the Emerald City in 2001. Hard-fighting host, though injured, far from incompetent. (05-J'VILLE -3 26-14...SR: Seattle 3-2)

*TENNESSEE 23 - Indianapolis 20--Tennessee won its first 10 games LY and has lost its first four TY. The explanation? Simple: It's the NFL! There are other explanations, such as the departure of DT Albert Haynesworth & defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, plus Kerry Collins going the Jake Delhomme rout since the Titans' playoff loss. However, Tennessee still has its formidable ground assault, home dog pedigree (7-0 last 7), and great familiarity with Indy (Titans 5-1 vs. spread last 6 meetings). REGIONAL TV--NBC

(08-TENN. 31-Indy 21...T.23-19 I.22/94 T.31/88 I.26/41/2/223 T.24/37/0/193 T.0 I.0)

(08-INDY 23-Tenn. 0...I.21-8 I.27/121 T.18/83 I.29/37/0/269 T.11/17/0/42 I.0 T.0)

(08-TENNESSEE -4 31-21, INDIANAPOLIS +3 23-0...SR: Indianapolis 16-13)

 

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Pointwise

NFL
Key Releases

SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta RATING: 2
MIAMI over New York Jets RATING: 3
BALTIMORE over Cincinnati RATING: 4
MINNESOTA over St Louis RATING: 4
WASHINGTON over Carolina RATING: 5

 

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Nelly's Greensheet

NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 ARIZONA (-6) over Houston
RATING 4 CINCINNATI (+9) over Baltimore
RATING 3 BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
RATING 2 CAROLINA (-4) over Washington
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (NL) over Seattle
************************************************** **

 

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Marc Lawrence

Playbook


PRO FOOTBALL

Sunday, October 11
Minnesota over ST. LOUIS by 3

Dallas over KANSAS CITY by 3

4* BEST BET
CAROLINA over Washington by 14

CAROLINA over Washington by 14

PHILADELPHIA over Tampa Bay by 10


NY GIANTS over Oakland by 13


BALTIMORE over Cincinnati by 4
. The 8 points ARE enough.

Pittsburgh over DETROIT by 6

Atlanta over SAN FRANCISCO by 3


DENVER over New England by 1
.

ARIZONA over Houston by 10


SEATTLE over Jacksonville by 7


5* BEST BET
TENNESSEE over Indianapolis by 10



3* BEST BET
Cleveland over BUFFALO by 6

 

[fly73]

Brandon Lang

from a radio show

He liked the Broncos, 49ers (a lot), Vikings (a little), and Colts (medium).

 

[fly73]

Red Sheet


Indianapolis 27 - TENNESSEE 13 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 3, and is now minus
3½. Yes, we are quite aware of the fact that we've yet to be on the right side of a game
involving these Titans, who, thus far, have been a monumental flop. Their formerly frightening
defense is slipping by the week, as they've been mauled for 34, 24, & 37 pts the last 3
weeks. The defection of Haynesworth has obviously taken its toll, & facing this smoking Colt
(13 straight regular season wins) certainly not the prescription for turning things around.
Manning: 69-of-99 for 1,035 yds (15 yds per completion) past 3 weeks.
RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87)San Fran, Philadelphia, Miami

 

[fly73]

Jimmy The Gent

Last Week (5-3 +2.80 Units)
Ytd : 17-15 - 4.40 Units

Well I Keep Chipping Away, Making A Small Profit Each Time,

Here Are Sundays Rated Plays:

I Have Never Posted Playing First Halves, But I Have A Formula Thats Been Hitting 77% And It Comes In The Minnesota Game.

Minn / Stl Over 20 First Half 5*top Play

Tenn / Indy Under 45 5*top Play

Buffalo -6 4*play

Cincinnati + 9 4*top Play

Jacksonville / Seattle Over 44 3*

 

[fly73]

The Prez


Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers Oct 11 2009 4:05PM

PICK: under Your pick will be graded at: 41 Belmont EXPERT: The Prez TITLE: NFL EARLY LINE ALERT REPORT *8-0 NFL RUN* REASON FOR PICK:

6* NFL BIG GAME TOTAL

(417) ATLANTA at (418) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 PM

Game day analysis wll be published shortly. Play the UNDER in this game now, the line will only move unfavorably as we approach Sunday's kick.

6* Play on the UNDER


8* PREZIDENTIAL CLUB PUNISHER
(413) CINCINNATI at (414) BALTIMORE 1:00 PM

Game day analysis wll be published shortly. Play the OVER in this game now, the line will only move unfavorably as we approach Sunday's kick.

8* Play on the OVER



Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals Oct 11 2009 4:15PM

PICK: over Your pick will be graded at: 49 Belmont EXPERT: The Prez TITLE: NFL EARLY LINE ALERT REPORT *8-0 NFL RUN* REASON FOR PICK:

PREZ' SUPREME COURT CLUB GOM
(421) HOUSTON at (422) ARIZONA 4:15 PM

Game day analysis wll be published shortly. Play the OVER in this game now, the line will only move unfavorably as we approach Sunday's kick.

10* Play on the OVER



New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Oct 11 2009 4:15PM

PICK: New England Patriots Your pick will be graded at: -3.5 WSEX EXPERT: The Prez TITLE: NFL EARLY LINE ALERT REPORT *8-0 NFL RUN* REASON FOR PICK:

8* PREZIDENTIAL CLUB PUNISHER
(419) NEW ENGLAND at (420) DENVER 4:15 PM

Game day analysis wll be published shortly. Play the Patriots in this game now, the line will only move unfavorably as we approach Sunday's kick.

8* Play on New England



Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Oct 11 2009 8:20PM

PICK: Indianapolis Colts Your pick will be graded at: -3.5 Belmont EXPERT: The TITLE: NFL EARLY LINE ALERT REPORT *8-0 NFL RUN* REASON FOR PICK:


7* CHAIRMAN'S CLUB CRUSHER
(425) INDIANAPOLIS at (426) TENNESSEE 8:20 PM

Game day analysis wll be published shortly. Play the Colts in this game now, the line will only move unfavorably as we approach Sunday's kick.

7* Play on the Colts

 

[MysteryMan]

Wayne Root's 2009 Football Upset Club

Sunday, October 11, 2009
7*Broncos (+3) over Patriots

6*Seahawks (-1½) over Jaguars

Both games are 4:15 kickoff

 

[fly73]

The Sports Investing Professional - Sunday

There are 2 NFL games I'm looking at. First, Minnesota.
Everyone thinks the Rams are due to cover and they may be but
they wouldn't get my money. The Vikings score 34..can the Rams
really put up 24? No. Buffalo...they'll bounce back well this
week at home.

NFL - Minnesota Vikings -9.5 (-130) Bet to win 1 unit
NFL - Buffalo Bills -6 Bet to win 1 unit.

May The Ball Bounce Your Way,

Record (59-39

 

[fly73]

Power Sweep

NFL

HOME TEAM IN CAPS
4★ Excellent
3★ Very Good
2★ Good

KEY SELECTIONS

4* CAROLINA over Washington -
FORECAST: CAROLINA 23 Washington 10

3* ARIZONA over Houston -
FORECAST: ARIZONA 34 Houston 23

OTHER SELECTIONS
2* SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta - T
FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 23 Atlanta 10

2* New England over DENVER - FORECAST: New England 20 DENVER 10

OTHER GAMES
Minnesota 27 ST LOUIS 10 -
Dallas 28 KANSAS CITY 7 -
PHILADELPHIA 27 Tampa Bay 3 -

NY GIANTS 33 Oakland 10 -
Cleveland 24 BUFFALO 23 -
BALTIMORE 28 Cincinnati 20 -
Pittsburgh 27 DETROIT 20 -
SEATTLE 23 Jacksonville 17 -



bsb--- they any good??

 

[pizza]

B LANG (on phillys DAILY NEWS LIVE tv show)

eagles under 43
49ers -2.5
denver +3.5
k.c. +8.5

usually right on with the eagles picks

won with ball st +13.5 yesterday

GL

 

[fly73]

RatedPicks NFL 10/11

NFL:
NFL 10/11 Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens pick: Baltimore Ravens pts: -8.5 2 units
NFL 10/11 Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions pick: Pittsburgh Steelers pts: -10.5 2 units
NFL 10/11 Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers pick: Atlanta Falcons pts: +2.5 2 units
NFL 10/11 Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals pick: over pts: 50 2 units
NFL 10/11 New England Patriots at Denver Broncos pick: New England Patriots pts: -3 2 units

MLB:

MLB 10/11 Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies pick: Philadelphia Phillies pts: -1.5 (+140) 2 units
MLB 10/11 NY Yankees at Minnesota Twins pick: Minnesota Twins pts: +165 1 units

 

[fly73]

NFL Computer Picks

Baltimore Ravens -8½
Buffalo Bills -6
Carolina Panthers -3½
Pittsburgh Steelers -10½
Kansas City Chiefs +8½
New York Giants -15½ ***
Philadelphia Eagles -15
Minnesota Vikings -10
San Francisco 49ers -2½
Houston Texans +5½
New England Patriots -3
Seattle Seahawks -PK
Indianapolis Colts -4


Monday, October 12th, 2009

New York Jets -2

 

[fly73]

Gina

Sunday, October 11th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
Lincoln Financial Field - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Go with the Eagles with McNabb back at the helm. The line is huge, but the Buccaneers are NFC's worst. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Philadelphia Eagles - 15


Sunday, October 11th, 4:15 p.m. est.
New England Patriots (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)
INVESCO Field at Mile High - Denver, Colorado
Go with the Broncos to give Brady and boys a tough fight at Mile High. The Broncos are playing sound and their potent defense will be merciless against the Patriots. Denver is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Denver Broncos +3