Doug Williams
New England @ Denver +3
Denver has given up an average of 6pts per game in this 4 and 0 start. Wow right? wait...against Cinci, Oakland, Cleveland and Dallas....their combined record? 6 - 10. The Pats? Knock off the hottest team in the NFL last week with Balt and the offense is starting to take shape.
Pats Cover -3
Tampa Bay @ Philly -15.5
OK, if 14.5 points is too many in the NFL, 15.5 is insane.
Tampa Bay Covers +15.5
Oakland @ NYG -14.5
Sigh. I dont care how bad a team can be, 14.5 points is too much in the NFL.
Raiders Cover +14.5
Atlanta @ San Fran -2.5
I still like the moxy of that San Fran D, and I love at least a field goal at home.
SF Covers -2.5
New England @ Denver +3
Denver has given up an average of 6pts per game in this 4 and 0 start. Wow right? wait...against Cinci, Oakland, Cleveland and Dallas....their combined record? 6 - 10. The Pats? Knock off the hottest team in the NFL last week with Balt and the offense is starting to take shape.
Pats Cover -3
Tampa Bay @ Philly -15.5
OK, if 14.5 points is too many in the NFL, 15.5 is insane.
Tampa Bay Covers +15.5
Oakland @ NYG -14.5
Sigh. I dont care how bad a team can be, 14.5 points is too much in the NFL.
Raiders Cover +14.5
Atlanta @ San Fran -2.5
I still like the moxy of that San Fran D, and I love at least a field goal at home.
SF Covers -2.5
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5
Matthew Stafford has been ruled out Sunday, and I don't feel Daunte Culpepper can make enough plays for Detroit to be competitive in this one. The Lions' defense is so bad that Pittsburgh will score almost every time they get the ball, just like Chicago did last week en route to a 48-24 victory over Detroit. The Lions are giving up 33.5 points/game this year. This Pittsburgh offense has improved with every game so far, and they are coming off a season-high 38 points last week against San Diego. They are hitting on all cylinders, and Big Ben is putting up more big numbers. Now they found a running game behind Rashard Mendenhall, who rushed for career-highs with 29 carries, 165 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Steelers are 26-12 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5
Matthew Stafford has been ruled out Sunday, and I don't feel Daunte Culpepper can make enough plays for Detroit to be competitive in this one. The Lions' defense is so bad that Pittsburgh will score almost every time they get the ball, just like Chicago did last week en route to a 48-24 victory over Detroit. The Lions are giving up 33.5 points/game this year. This Pittsburgh offense has improved with every game so far, and they are coming off a season-high 38 points last week against San Diego. They are hitting on all cylinders, and Big Ben is putting up more big numbers. Now they found a running game behind Rashard Mendenhall, who rushed for career-highs with 29 carries, 165 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Steelers are 26-12 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.
Chris Jordans picks for today
Chris Jordan Sunday's winners ... He has been better at NFL lately...
300♦ NEW YORK GIANTS - It's very difficult to think about any other quarterback in the league who has struggled as much as JaMarcus Russell, and with the itinerary this team has endured the past eight days, I don't see him being able to do anything against this swarming defense. Seriously guys, I mean I will address the whole Eli Manning situation in a moment, but the defense can deliver a cover just as easy as the offense.
Think about it, Russell is completing 39.8 percent of his passes - he completed 43-of-108 tosses for 506 yards - with just one touchdown versus four interceptions. Now he's going to take on the No. 1 defense in the league? How about, the No. 1 passing defense in the NFL? Paaahhhleeezzeee ... you want me to be concerned about Manning's heel when the Raiders - who might be the saddest organization in the league right now - were in Houston eight days ago, then went home after being swatted 29-6 by the Texans, went home to prepare for arguably the frontrunner in the NFC and are now in Jersey for this contest?
I'm not buying into it, not one bit. Not when the Raiders rank last in total offense, last in passing yardage and 31 ins rushing yardage. And with running back Darren McFadden on the shelf, the workload goes to Michael Bush and Justin Fargas ... ahem, who?!?!?! I mean, I know who they are, but you get the point. Oakland's, I mean Russell's, only shot is if he gets the dink-and-dunk game going with tight end Zach Miller. And even then, how effective can that be against the top passing D?
Okay, so as for Manning, here's the deal ...
He participated in the New York Giants' practice Friday after missing two straight practices. Coach Tom Coughlin told reporters that Manning's availability for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders likely will be a game-time decision and that Manning "did fine" during Friday's practice and he was "encouraged" by how Manning looked.
On Saturday, he felt good enough to participate in the walkthrough and the tell-all sign was when the Giants failed to promote rookie quarterback Rhett Bomar off the practice squad, which means they are preparing to go into the game with only two quarterbacks - Manning and David Carr, who worked with the Giants' starting offense during practices Wednesday and Thursday while Manning sat out. And believe me, Coughling obviously wouldn't go into the game with just two signal callers if he was worried that Manning wouldn't be healthy enough to play.
All that being said, Manning isn't about to let that consecutvie-game streak go to waste if he couldn't play.
And since Steve Smith and Mario Manningham have been making Giants fans forget Plaxico is currently residing in a cubicle by tallying a combined 52 receptions, 717 yards and six touchdowns, I don't there'll be much the trravel-weary Raiders will be able to do.
All Giants here!
100♦ COLORADO ROCKIES (LIST Hammel over Happ) - Welcome to the blizzard-worn Coors Field. The Rockies will emerge from the wild-card ranks looking more like the higher seed than the defending champs after this one. As I said yesterday, this is a team that has a knack for going on unstoppable runs, and now it is really in a great situation to take advantage in this series.
The unconfirmed blurb I heard on the street outside of Coors Field yesterday was that maintenance crews were installing extra space heaters in the Rockies' dugout - but not necessarily in the Phillies' dugout. Whether or not that's true - or even allowed - is beyond me. But I do know there are certain home-field advantages in many old-school ballparks, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Rockies did enjoy better amenities than their visitors during this frigid faceoff.
I like Hammel over Happ, just as I did over Martinez, as Colorado's import for Tampa won five of his last seven decisions to finish 10-8. He's found great command and is throwing strikes effectively. I expect him to challenge the Phillies hitters tonight in the brutal cold weather.
Colorado won 51 games at Coors Field, the second most in the National League this season.
Play Colorado tonight.
Chris Jordan Sunday's winners ... He has been better at NFL lately...
300♦ NEW YORK GIANTS - It's very difficult to think about any other quarterback in the league who has struggled as much as JaMarcus Russell, and with the itinerary this team has endured the past eight days, I don't see him being able to do anything against this swarming defense. Seriously guys, I mean I will address the whole Eli Manning situation in a moment, but the defense can deliver a cover just as easy as the offense.
Think about it, Russell is completing 39.8 percent of his passes - he completed 43-of-108 tosses for 506 yards - with just one touchdown versus four interceptions. Now he's going to take on the No. 1 defense in the league? How about, the No. 1 passing defense in the NFL? Paaahhhleeezzeee ... you want me to be concerned about Manning's heel when the Raiders - who might be the saddest organization in the league right now - were in Houston eight days ago, then went home after being swatted 29-6 by the Texans, went home to prepare for arguably the frontrunner in the NFC and are now in Jersey for this contest?
I'm not buying into it, not one bit. Not when the Raiders rank last in total offense, last in passing yardage and 31 ins rushing yardage. And with running back Darren McFadden on the shelf, the workload goes to Michael Bush and Justin Fargas ... ahem, who?!?!?! I mean, I know who they are, but you get the point. Oakland's, I mean Russell's, only shot is if he gets the dink-and-dunk game going with tight end Zach Miller. And even then, how effective can that be against the top passing D?
Okay, so as for Manning, here's the deal ...
He participated in the New York Giants' practice Friday after missing two straight practices. Coach Tom Coughlin told reporters that Manning's availability for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders likely will be a game-time decision and that Manning "did fine" during Friday's practice and he was "encouraged" by how Manning looked.
On Saturday, he felt good enough to participate in the walkthrough and the tell-all sign was when the Giants failed to promote rookie quarterback Rhett Bomar off the practice squad, which means they are preparing to go into the game with only two quarterbacks - Manning and David Carr, who worked with the Giants' starting offense during practices Wednesday and Thursday while Manning sat out. And believe me, Coughling obviously wouldn't go into the game with just two signal callers if he was worried that Manning wouldn't be healthy enough to play.
All that being said, Manning isn't about to let that consecutvie-game streak go to waste if he couldn't play.
And since Steve Smith and Mario Manningham have been making Giants fans forget Plaxico is currently residing in a cubicle by tallying a combined 52 receptions, 717 yards and six touchdowns, I don't there'll be much the trravel-weary Raiders will be able to do.
All Giants here!
100♦ COLORADO ROCKIES (LIST Hammel over Happ) - Welcome to the blizzard-worn Coors Field. The Rockies will emerge from the wild-card ranks looking more like the higher seed than the defending champs after this one. As I said yesterday, this is a team that has a knack for going on unstoppable runs, and now it is really in a great situation to take advantage in this series.
The unconfirmed blurb I heard on the street outside of Coors Field yesterday was that maintenance crews were installing extra space heaters in the Rockies' dugout - but not necessarily in the Phillies' dugout. Whether or not that's true - or even allowed - is beyond me. But I do know there are certain home-field advantages in many old-school ballparks, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Rockies did enjoy better amenities than their visitors during this frigid faceoff.
I like Hammel over Happ, just as I did over Martinez, as Colorado's import for Tampa won five of his last seven decisions to finish 10-8. He's found great command and is throwing strikes effectively. I expect him to challenge the Phillies hitters tonight in the brutal cold weather.
Colorado won 51 games at Coors Field, the second most in the National League this season.
Play Colorado tonight.
Sunday, October 11, 2009 Handicapper: Mike Handzelek
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Total: 40.5/-105 Under Play Title: Smash Mouth Football Coming O/U Play
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
It looks like Mike Singletary has the 49ers defense grasping the system kind of early as witnessed by San Francisco yielding 13 PPG thus far this season. Yes, this is only the 2nd potent offense they'll be facing, but I don't think Coach Smith is going to abandon the running game with Michael Turner and a little bit of Norwood. 49ers MLB Patrick Willis will come up big and put some pressure on Ryan who will be dinkin' it most of the day. A lot of people are looking for a San Francisco cover as QB Shaun Hill is flawless @ home in 7 starts. Without Frank Gore in the lineup, the rookie Glen Coffee gets the call and will try to be a beast of burden. The Falcons will stress ball control and no turnovers on the road and should have a solid gameplan coming off a Week 4 bye. San Francisco is excited about Michael Crabtree signing, but it will be a long time before he makes a big impact he's capable of. The Falcons having that extra-prep time will load the box and force the issue. In doing so, expect more than a normal share of smash mouth football which gives us the line value we need for an UNDER. Our Smash Mouth Football Coming O/U Play is to take the UNDER in the Atlanta-San Francisco game @ Candelstick Park for $200.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Total: 41/-108 Under Play Title: Our Patented Got To Knowem' O/U Doubleplay (Undefeated)
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Word to OVER players---Josh McDaniels knows Tom Brady and how to contain him being his former QB coach. Knowing offensive tendencies and familiar pass routes is a big A+ when facing the New England Patriots. The bigger advantage comes with the weather which should be in the 30's with winds and either rain or snow. Knowing Belichick & McDaniels, their game plan will evolve around the traditional bad weather smash mouth game plan. Belichick is smart enough to figure out a gameplan that gives his running backs those all-important playmaking abilities. I think both defenses come out of this smelling like a rose. Denver might struggle moving the ball but one key is the Denver preparation for the game. Yes, they could of practiced in the bubble, but they knew that wasn't reality this week. So sit back and watch how both of these teams trade field position throughout the afternoon until 1 team makes that game-changing make or break. It's also great to see that a lot of OVER trends are shoe-ins for this game. It won't work with all factors mentioned above. Our Patented Got To Knowem' O/U Doubleplay is to hop all over the UNDER in the Patriots-Broncos game for $400.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -1/-115 Seattle Seahawks Play Title: Your Classic Letdown Coming From A Mile Away
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
So the Jacksonville Jaguars have beaten the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans in back-to-back weeks and now we're ready to hand them the seat of a team in contention? Not so fast boys! Let's not jump the gun when its plain to see that their ground game is inconsistent, they're just coming off a gigantic victory in their division & they're making a cross-country trip into the unfamiliar territory of the NFC West. I recall the last time they recently hooked up with this division resulted ina big "L" against an Arizona team whose "Clancy-less" and is in defensive transition. The Pacific Northwest & Qwest Field in Seattle is not a area or venue that a team from the east can immediately adapt to unless you have the talent. Jacksonville is iffy at best in that category. What the average bettor doesn't understand about Tennessee last week is when they put that many in the box that frequently, you get beaten often and deep. Guess what happened against the challenged secondary of the Titans? Different things factor in for Seattle today that they didn't have recently. Hasselbeck back behind center, Josh Wilson back in the CB spot & Tatupu roming the MLB position are pivotal position players Seattle needs to have for a winning formula. With the Jaguars possibly having 2 offensive tackles not @ 100%, I have to give the edge to the Seahawks. Let's talk some numbers. Jacksonville does not fare well after a divisional game and back-to-back SU & ATS victories as witnessed by their PERFECT 0-7 ATS record in this situation under Del Rio. They've lost 5 in a row ATS off a home divisional win. I think Jim Mora, Jr. will motivate his club enough to respond in a big way with their backs against the wall & they've always come up BIG when off back-to-back losses going 10-2 ATS. Your Classic Letdown Coming From A Mile Away play says to put up $200 on the Seattle Seahawks.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 9/-104 Cincinnati Bengals Play Title: First Steppin' Out ATS Doubleplay Of Year (Like Others' 5*s)
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Let's get one thing straight from the beginning. Cincinnati has turned their defense around and will consistent win games as a result this season. No more has everything fallen upon Carson Palmer's shoulders to make or break. I also expected a flat spot for Cincy against Cleveland because of the evident look-ahead toward this more important divisonal tilt. The Denver win was a fluke so in reality, the Bengals should be sitting @ 4-0. This game is a statement of respect I think the Bengals can make in sending the division a message that they're not a joke anymore and can contend for the division. Chad Ochocinco looks like he's ready to come out of his long slumber at the WR position. Negativity and excuses were coming from the Ravens lockerroom after last week's loss and that doesn't transform into blowout material here. It also doesn't help if they have to go without left tackle Jared Gaither. It becomes progressively hard to blow out every team that comes into M & T Bank Stadium as we get deeper into the season. I don't call KC & Cleveland quality opponents in that venue. Three key mojo systems to remember concern the time of year, similarity & coming off a certain game. In October, Baltimore has lost 10 of 11 ATS when off a SU loss versus an opponent off a SU win. Going back to November 24 of 2002, the mighty Bengals are a PERFECT 12-0 ATS after taking on Cleveland. let's look at similarity. When the Ravens take a team with like record, they are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS as a 7+ favorite since October 27, 2006. Week 5 is even going our way as well. Baltimore has lost 4 ina row versus the number in Week 5 while the Bengals have gone 4-0-1 the last 5 years in this week. The bottom line says the Bengals have responded BIG going 4-0 their last 4 installations as the dog so our First Steppin' Out ATS Doubleplay Of The Year is to put up $500 on the Cincinnati Bengals. I would also play $50 to risk on Cincinnati on the ML looking for a nicer payback.
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Total: 40.5/-105 Under Play Title: Smash Mouth Football Coming O/U Play
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
It looks like Mike Singletary has the 49ers defense grasping the system kind of early as witnessed by San Francisco yielding 13 PPG thus far this season. Yes, this is only the 2nd potent offense they'll be facing, but I don't think Coach Smith is going to abandon the running game with Michael Turner and a little bit of Norwood. 49ers MLB Patrick Willis will come up big and put some pressure on Ryan who will be dinkin' it most of the day. A lot of people are looking for a San Francisco cover as QB Shaun Hill is flawless @ home in 7 starts. Without Frank Gore in the lineup, the rookie Glen Coffee gets the call and will try to be a beast of burden. The Falcons will stress ball control and no turnovers on the road and should have a solid gameplan coming off a Week 4 bye. San Francisco is excited about Michael Crabtree signing, but it will be a long time before he makes a big impact he's capable of. The Falcons having that extra-prep time will load the box and force the issue. In doing so, expect more than a normal share of smash mouth football which gives us the line value we need for an UNDER. Our Smash Mouth Football Coming O/U Play is to take the UNDER in the Atlanta-San Francisco game @ Candelstick Park for $200.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Total: 41/-108 Under Play Title: Our Patented Got To Knowem' O/U Doubleplay (Undefeated)
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Word to OVER players---Josh McDaniels knows Tom Brady and how to contain him being his former QB coach. Knowing offensive tendencies and familiar pass routes is a big A+ when facing the New England Patriots. The bigger advantage comes with the weather which should be in the 30's with winds and either rain or snow. Knowing Belichick & McDaniels, their game plan will evolve around the traditional bad weather smash mouth game plan. Belichick is smart enough to figure out a gameplan that gives his running backs those all-important playmaking abilities. I think both defenses come out of this smelling like a rose. Denver might struggle moving the ball but one key is the Denver preparation for the game. Yes, they could of practiced in the bubble, but they knew that wasn't reality this week. So sit back and watch how both of these teams trade field position throughout the afternoon until 1 team makes that game-changing make or break. It's also great to see that a lot of OVER trends are shoe-ins for this game. It won't work with all factors mentioned above. Our Patented Got To Knowem' O/U Doubleplay is to hop all over the UNDER in the Patriots-Broncos game for $400.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -1/-115 Seattle Seahawks Play Title: Your Classic Letdown Coming From A Mile Away
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
So the Jacksonville Jaguars have beaten the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans in back-to-back weeks and now we're ready to hand them the seat of a team in contention? Not so fast boys! Let's not jump the gun when its plain to see that their ground game is inconsistent, they're just coming off a gigantic victory in their division & they're making a cross-country trip into the unfamiliar territory of the NFC West. I recall the last time they recently hooked up with this division resulted ina big "L" against an Arizona team whose "Clancy-less" and is in defensive transition. The Pacific Northwest & Qwest Field in Seattle is not a area or venue that a team from the east can immediately adapt to unless you have the talent. Jacksonville is iffy at best in that category. What the average bettor doesn't understand about Tennessee last week is when they put that many in the box that frequently, you get beaten often and deep. Guess what happened against the challenged secondary of the Titans? Different things factor in for Seattle today that they didn't have recently. Hasselbeck back behind center, Josh Wilson back in the CB spot & Tatupu roming the MLB position are pivotal position players Seattle needs to have for a winning formula. With the Jaguars possibly having 2 offensive tackles not @ 100%, I have to give the edge to the Seahawks. Let's talk some numbers. Jacksonville does not fare well after a divisional game and back-to-back SU & ATS victories as witnessed by their PERFECT 0-7 ATS record in this situation under Del Rio. They've lost 5 in a row ATS off a home divisional win. I think Jim Mora, Jr. will motivate his club enough to respond in a big way with their backs against the wall & they've always come up BIG when off back-to-back losses going 10-2 ATS. Your Classic Letdown Coming From A Mile Away play says to put up $200 on the Seattle Seahawks.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 9/-104 Cincinnati Bengals Play Title: First Steppin' Out ATS Doubleplay Of Year (Like Others' 5*s)
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Let's get one thing straight from the beginning. Cincinnati has turned their defense around and will consistent win games as a result this season. No more has everything fallen upon Carson Palmer's shoulders to make or break. I also expected a flat spot for Cincy against Cleveland because of the evident look-ahead toward this more important divisonal tilt. The Denver win was a fluke so in reality, the Bengals should be sitting @ 4-0. This game is a statement of respect I think the Bengals can make in sending the division a message that they're not a joke anymore and can contend for the division. Chad Ochocinco looks like he's ready to come out of his long slumber at the WR position. Negativity and excuses were coming from the Ravens lockerroom after last week's loss and that doesn't transform into blowout material here. It also doesn't help if they have to go without left tackle Jared Gaither. It becomes progressively hard to blow out every team that comes into M & T Bank Stadium as we get deeper into the season. I don't call KC & Cleveland quality opponents in that venue. Three key mojo systems to remember concern the time of year, similarity & coming off a certain game. In October, Baltimore has lost 10 of 11 ATS when off a SU loss versus an opponent off a SU win. Going back to November 24 of 2002, the mighty Bengals are a PERFECT 12-0 ATS after taking on Cleveland. let's look at similarity. When the Ravens take a team with like record, they are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS as a 7+ favorite since October 27, 2006. Week 5 is even going our way as well. Baltimore has lost 4 ina row versus the number in Week 5 while the Bengals have gone 4-0-1 the last 5 years in this week. The bottom line says the Bengals have responded BIG going 4-0 their last 4 installations as the dog so our First Steppin' Out ATS Doubleplay Of The Year is to put up $500 on the Cincinnati Bengals. I would also play $50 to risk on Cincinnati on the ML looking for a nicer payback.
GT Bookie Battle 2009 (5-4) 2008 & 2007 (37-21-4)
Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday and have posted the plays on this forum.
The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side.
Over the last couple of years, it seemed to hit around 60% - 65%.The only problem: Not a lot of action.
Week #5 Pick… bet on: WAS
Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday and have posted the plays on this forum.
The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side.
Over the last couple of years, it seemed to hit around 60% - 65%.The only problem: Not a lot of action.
Week #5 Pick… bet on: WAS
Players Adv 10* NFL Sunday Top Play TENN on Oct 11th
Scott Rickenbach’s NFL: 10* (TOP PLAY) Tennessee Titans (+) vs Indianapolis @ 8:20 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays now range from 6* on up to 10* so this will include 7* and 8* picks as well. 6* will be the most common play rating with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays will be rare but, of course, are even a step above a 9* Top Play!
The Colts have received heavy action here in terms of the betting and why not? After all, they are 4-0 on the season while the Titans are 0-4 on the season. Also, we all know that Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning has a history of huge performances in primetime games. However, the Titans are treating this is their “Super Bowl” and yes, we know it’s only week five of the NFL season but Tennessee needs this game in the worst way. They know there is still hope for them if they can get to 1-4 and snap their opening slide. Keep in mind, the Titans were 1-4 in 2002 under coach Jeff Fisher and that team ended up making to the AFC Championship Game. Yes, Fisher and his troops are fully capable of “making a run” but they know they can’t wait any longer. Note that the four teams the Colts have beaten so far this season are a combined 5-10 on the year. The Colts still haven’t defeated a team that currently has a winning record on the season. Also their first two wins were “nail-biters” that came by a combined six points. Their next two wins came against a flat Arizona Cardinals team and a wounded Seattle Seahawks team missing a ton of key personnel.
This week’s situation will be much different for the Colts than any situation they’ve faced so far this season. The Titans are well-coached, physical, much more talented than their 0-4 record indicates, and they’re at home in a primetime game with their backs against the wall. The Titans have a very strong running game and they will use that to punish a Colts run defense that still misses the services of Bob Sanders. Now, we fully realize that Indianapolis has put up good numbers against the run in their last two games but they faced the Cardinals and Seahawks. The Cards don’t run and Seattle wasn’t healthy enough to run. Remember when Indy got run all over by the Dolphins in primetime action earlier this season? The Colts snuck out the win there but they absolutely were manhandled at the line of scrimmage and we look for a similar result here. Indianapolis has a history of struggling against physical, run-dominated teams and that is precisely what they’re facing here. Also, there’s an old saying that “it’s the wounded dog that bites the hardest” and that is the case here. You’re talking about a very proud Titans team on national TV that is off to a totally unexpected (for them) 0-4 start to the season! Note that Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in a home dog role. Not only are the Titans getting at least 3.5 points here at home, this is also arguably the hungriest they’ve ever been as a home dog. They want this victory so badly they can taste it and we expect you to witness the Titans playing this game like it is indeed their Super Bowl. Look for a huge upset win here put we’ll grab the generous points here just in case. Play Tennessee plus the points as a 10* TOP PLAY selection.
Scott Rickenbach’s NFL: 10* (TOP PLAY) Tennessee Titans (+) vs Indianapolis @ 8:20 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays now range from 6* on up to 10* so this will include 7* and 8* picks as well. 6* will be the most common play rating with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays will be rare but, of course, are even a step above a 9* Top Play!
The Colts have received heavy action here in terms of the betting and why not? After all, they are 4-0 on the season while the Titans are 0-4 on the season. Also, we all know that Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning has a history of huge performances in primetime games. However, the Titans are treating this is their “Super Bowl” and yes, we know it’s only week five of the NFL season but Tennessee needs this game in the worst way. They know there is still hope for them if they can get to 1-4 and snap their opening slide. Keep in mind, the Titans were 1-4 in 2002 under coach Jeff Fisher and that team ended up making to the AFC Championship Game. Yes, Fisher and his troops are fully capable of “making a run” but they know they can’t wait any longer. Note that the four teams the Colts have beaten so far this season are a combined 5-10 on the year. The Colts still haven’t defeated a team that currently has a winning record on the season. Also their first two wins were “nail-biters” that came by a combined six points. Their next two wins came against a flat Arizona Cardinals team and a wounded Seattle Seahawks team missing a ton of key personnel.
This week’s situation will be much different for the Colts than any situation they’ve faced so far this season. The Titans are well-coached, physical, much more talented than their 0-4 record indicates, and they’re at home in a primetime game with their backs against the wall. The Titans have a very strong running game and they will use that to punish a Colts run defense that still misses the services of Bob Sanders. Now, we fully realize that Indianapolis has put up good numbers against the run in their last two games but they faced the Cardinals and Seahawks. The Cards don’t run and Seattle wasn’t healthy enough to run. Remember when Indy got run all over by the Dolphins in primetime action earlier this season? The Colts snuck out the win there but they absolutely were manhandled at the line of scrimmage and we look for a similar result here. Indianapolis has a history of struggling against physical, run-dominated teams and that is precisely what they’re facing here. Also, there’s an old saying that “it’s the wounded dog that bites the hardest” and that is the case here. You’re talking about a very proud Titans team on national TV that is off to a totally unexpected (for them) 0-4 start to the season! Note that Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in a home dog role. Not only are the Titans getting at least 3.5 points here at home, this is also arguably the hungriest they’ve ever been as a home dog. They want this victory so badly they can taste it and we expect you to witness the Titans playing this game like it is indeed their Super Bowl. Look for a huge upset win here put we’ll grab the generous points here just in case. Play Tennessee plus the points as a 10* TOP PLAY selection.
Players Adv NFL 4 ET Sun ATL on Oct 11th
Scott Rickenbach’s NFL: 8* (Regular Play) Atlanta Falcons (+) @ San Francisco @ 4:05 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays now range from 6* on up to 10* so this will include 7* and 8* picks as well. 6* will be the most common play rating with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays will be rare but, of course, are even a step above a 9* Top Play!
The 49’ers are 3-1 this season but their three wins have come against teams that are currently a combined 2-9 on the season. Simply put, we feel the 49’ers are over-rated now. They are currently without RB Frank Gore and that absolutely hurts their ground attack. Last week, their 35-0 win over St Louis is quite deceiving. They only outgained the Rams by 52 yards in that game and the 49’ers ground game was no better than the St Louis rushing attack in that match-up. Each team came up just short of 100 yards rushing. The Falcons are hungry here…very hungry. They are also very focused, refreshed, and healthy. That’s what a bye will do for a team. Atlanta had a week off to think about the beating they took at the hands of the Patriots right before their bye week. Keep in mind, Atlanta had won their first two games by an average margin of ten points per game before losing at New England.
The Falcons bring extra focus to this game after the 16 point drubbing at the hands of the Patriots and after the extra time off to analyze areas needing improvement. The Falcons are healthier now and getting some key players back to help increase the physicality on both sides of the ball and that’s what we fully expect here. The Niners offense under Shaun Hill is simply not as impressive as the Falcons offense under Matt Ryan. Also, the Falcons are looking to (and healthy enough to) re-establish their dynamic run game here. Conversely, the Niners will continue to struggle on the ground without Gore. Also, in the passing game, San Francisco just doesn’t have the weapons (and hasn’t utilized those it does have properly) in terms of stretching the field and getting the ball downfield. The 49’ers anemic offense is overtaken by the dynamic offense of the Falcons here. Also, fresh off of a bye, Atlanta is all set to be very physical here on both sides of the ball and get right back into the win column. That said, we’ll grab the available points but not expect to need them. Play Atlanta plus the points as an 8* Regular Play selection.
Scott Rickenbach’s NFL: 8* (Regular Play) Atlanta Falcons (+) @ San Francisco @ 4:05 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays now range from 6* on up to 10* so this will include 7* and 8* picks as well. 6* will be the most common play rating with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays will be rare but, of course, are even a step above a 9* Top Play!
The 49’ers are 3-1 this season but their three wins have come against teams that are currently a combined 2-9 on the season. Simply put, we feel the 49’ers are over-rated now. They are currently without RB Frank Gore and that absolutely hurts their ground attack. Last week, their 35-0 win over St Louis is quite deceiving. They only outgained the Rams by 52 yards in that game and the 49’ers ground game was no better than the St Louis rushing attack in that match-up. Each team came up just short of 100 yards rushing. The Falcons are hungry here…very hungry. They are also very focused, refreshed, and healthy. That’s what a bye will do for a team. Atlanta had a week off to think about the beating they took at the hands of the Patriots right before their bye week. Keep in mind, Atlanta had won their first two games by an average margin of ten points per game before losing at New England.
The Falcons bring extra focus to this game after the 16 point drubbing at the hands of the Patriots and after the extra time off to analyze areas needing improvement. The Falcons are healthier now and getting some key players back to help increase the physicality on both sides of the ball and that’s what we fully expect here. The Niners offense under Shaun Hill is simply not as impressive as the Falcons offense under Matt Ryan. Also, the Falcons are looking to (and healthy enough to) re-establish their dynamic run game here. Conversely, the Niners will continue to struggle on the ground without Gore. Also, in the passing game, San Francisco just doesn’t have the weapons (and hasn’t utilized those it does have properly) in terms of stretching the field and getting the ball downfield. The 49’ers anemic offense is overtaken by the dynamic offense of the Falcons here. Also, fresh off of a bye, Atlanta is all set to be very physical here on both sides of the ball and get right back into the win column. That said, we’ll grab the available points but not expect to need them. Play Atlanta plus the points as an 8* Regular Play selection.
sirdukesports
Having trouble getting my service recognized and will begin today posting all plays. My regular players will have there money refunded and directed to therxforum.com to receive selections. Went 4-3 Saturday 2-0 during the week. Here we go..
3* Good
5* Solid
7* Strong
10* Best Bet
10* (406) Carolina Panthers -3.5 1:00 PM
5* (413) Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 1:00 PM
7*(420) Denver Broncos +3.5 4:15 PM
3* (426) Tennesse Titans +4 8:20 PM I've just about giving up on the Titans after selecting them twice so far.
Good luck
Duke
Having trouble getting my service recognized and will begin today posting all plays. My regular players will have there money refunded and directed to therxforum.com to receive selections. Went 4-3 Saturday 2-0 during the week. Here we go..
3* Good
5* Solid
7* Strong
10* Best Bet
10* (406) Carolina Panthers -3.5 1:00 PM
5* (413) Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 1:00 PM
7*(420) Denver Broncos +3.5 4:15 PM
3* (426) Tennesse Titans +4 8:20 PM I've just about giving up on the Titans after selecting them twice so far.
Good luck
Duke
Nover
Sunday's Winners
25-Dime New England Patriots - When was the last time you saw a 4-0 team that has allowed just 26 points all season a home underdog? Probably never. The point is the oddsmaker doesn't respect Denver and neither do I.
Tom Brady is getting sharper and more in sync with his receivers every week. The Patriots destroyed Denver, 41-7, last year. That was without Brady.
Yes, Denver is improved and vastly different. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is doing an excellent job with the castoffs he has manning many of his starting spots.
But let's not, for one instance, lose sight of the teams Denver has played - Cincinnati (who they beat on a fluke tipped touchdown pass), Cleveland at home, Oakland and catching an overrated mixed-up Dallas squad at home.
Denver doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Patriots' attack. Kyle Orton is a dink-and-dunk game manager. Correll Buckhalter, the team's leading rusher and best short-yardage back, is out with an ankle injury. New England has yet to give up 300 yards passing this season.
The Patriots are getting healthier on defense. Bill Belichick is a master defensive game planner. He's come up with the right schemes to stop much tougher offenses than what the Broncos offer. The Patriots are 36-16-1 (69 percent) against the spread in their last 53 road games. They have covered 17 of the past 23 (74 percent) games as road chalk.
The Broncos are 8-19-1 against the spread in their last 28 home games.
Broncos head man Josh McDaniels spent eight season learning under Belichick, the past three as offensive coordinator for New England. Belichick doesn't want to lose to his pupil. So the Patriots won't lack for motivation in this non-division matchup.
10-Dime Carolina Panthers - The Panthers, off a bye, have had two weeks to realize the importance of this matchup. They are 0-3 and absolutely can not take a home loss. They need to win this game to salvage their season.
Carolina is 8-4-1 against the spread in its last 13 home contests. The Redskins are deficient in their rushing attack and in pass protection. The result is opponents have held Washington to 20 points or less in 11 of the last 12 games. Washington ranks 27th in scoring.
While the Panthers are sure to be motivated, the Redskins are in a confused state thanks to their meddling and incompetent owner Daniel "Danny Boy" Snyder. Jim Zorn could go at any time. Snyder further eroded Zorn's shrinking respect and authority by bringing in 67-year-old Sherm Lewis as an offensive consultant. Lewis hasn't held an NFL job for nearly five years.
Morale is terrible on the Redskins. Zorn is being undercut. Defensive coordinator Greg Blache is not talking to the media. Big free agent signing Albert Haynesworth is less than 100 percent. Clinton Portis had a heated verbal exchange with fullback Mike Sellers during practice this week.
Portis is clearly past his prime. He has failed to top 80 yards rushing during Weeks 2-4 against weak defenses St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa Bay. The Redskins are without their top run blocker, guard Randy Thomas.
The Redskins' offensive line is like Portis, aging and past their prime. Backup tailback Ladell Betts is averaging 1.6 yards per carry.
The Panthers shored up their porous run defense by signing 340-pound veteran run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. The Panthers have the better skill position players with running back DeAngelo Williams and wide receiver Steve Smith.
The Redskins have lost five in a row on the road. In their last road game, they were beaten by the Lions, losers of 19 straight games. Washington is a money-burner going 1-8-3 against the spread in its last 12 games.
5-Dime Seattle Seahawks - I like Seattle, with one of the best homefield advantages, to beat Jacksonville. The Seahawks are in a desperate situation. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a terrible situational spot.
The Jaguars are traveling cross-country following back-to-back division victories. The Jaguars haven't won two straight road games in two years. The Jaguars, under Jack Del Rio, are 0-7 against the spread off consecutive straight-up and against the spread victories.
It's not just the situation. I don't believe the Jaguars are very good. They have lost 14 of their last 21 games.
The Jaguars have a weak secondary and their offensive line partially consists of two rookie tackles, who are both questionable. Eugene Monroe has been battling the flu, while Eben Britton missed last week's game because of a sprained knee. Both have taken their share of lumps.
On offense, the Jaguars rely heavily on running back Maurice Jones-Drew. But if you discount Jones-Drew's 60-yard run against a weak Houston rush defense, the Jaguars have averaged only 3.0 yards a carry in their last two games.
Seattle has offensive line injuries, too. Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones is out. So is Sean Locklear and Rob Sims. But Matt Hasselbeck has practiced this week after missing the past two games with a rib injury. He's expected to start.
Hasselbeck would give the Seahawks a huge emotional boost. I'm fine, though, if backup Seneca Wallace starts again. The Seahawks have become more run-oriented and their quarterback takes short drops making it easier to pass protect. The Jaguars also lack a strong pass rush.
Seattle coach Jim Mora admitted this is a crucial game. The Seahawks have a big home field advantage. There isn't a louder outdoor stadium than Qwest Field.
The Seahawks are 10-5-1 against the spread in their last 16 home contests. They have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference home games and have covered 10 of the past 12 times when playing following back-to-back losses.
Sunday's Winners
25-Dime New England Patriots - When was the last time you saw a 4-0 team that has allowed just 26 points all season a home underdog? Probably never. The point is the oddsmaker doesn't respect Denver and neither do I.
Tom Brady is getting sharper and more in sync with his receivers every week. The Patriots destroyed Denver, 41-7, last year. That was without Brady.
Yes, Denver is improved and vastly different. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is doing an excellent job with the castoffs he has manning many of his starting spots.
But let's not, for one instance, lose sight of the teams Denver has played - Cincinnati (who they beat on a fluke tipped touchdown pass), Cleveland at home, Oakland and catching an overrated mixed-up Dallas squad at home.
Denver doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Patriots' attack. Kyle Orton is a dink-and-dunk game manager. Correll Buckhalter, the team's leading rusher and best short-yardage back, is out with an ankle injury. New England has yet to give up 300 yards passing this season.
The Patriots are getting healthier on defense. Bill Belichick is a master defensive game planner. He's come up with the right schemes to stop much tougher offenses than what the Broncos offer. The Patriots are 36-16-1 (69 percent) against the spread in their last 53 road games. They have covered 17 of the past 23 (74 percent) games as road chalk.
The Broncos are 8-19-1 against the spread in their last 28 home games.
Broncos head man Josh McDaniels spent eight season learning under Belichick, the past three as offensive coordinator for New England. Belichick doesn't want to lose to his pupil. So the Patriots won't lack for motivation in this non-division matchup.
10-Dime Carolina Panthers - The Panthers, off a bye, have had two weeks to realize the importance of this matchup. They are 0-3 and absolutely can not take a home loss. They need to win this game to salvage their season.
Carolina is 8-4-1 against the spread in its last 13 home contests. The Redskins are deficient in their rushing attack and in pass protection. The result is opponents have held Washington to 20 points or less in 11 of the last 12 games. Washington ranks 27th in scoring.
While the Panthers are sure to be motivated, the Redskins are in a confused state thanks to their meddling and incompetent owner Daniel "Danny Boy" Snyder. Jim Zorn could go at any time. Snyder further eroded Zorn's shrinking respect and authority by bringing in 67-year-old Sherm Lewis as an offensive consultant. Lewis hasn't held an NFL job for nearly five years.
Morale is terrible on the Redskins. Zorn is being undercut. Defensive coordinator Greg Blache is not talking to the media. Big free agent signing Albert Haynesworth is less than 100 percent. Clinton Portis had a heated verbal exchange with fullback Mike Sellers during practice this week.
Portis is clearly past his prime. He has failed to top 80 yards rushing during Weeks 2-4 against weak defenses St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa Bay. The Redskins are without their top run blocker, guard Randy Thomas.
The Redskins' offensive line is like Portis, aging and past their prime. Backup tailback Ladell Betts is averaging 1.6 yards per carry.
The Panthers shored up their porous run defense by signing 340-pound veteran run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. The Panthers have the better skill position players with running back DeAngelo Williams and wide receiver Steve Smith.
The Redskins have lost five in a row on the road. In their last road game, they were beaten by the Lions, losers of 19 straight games. Washington is a money-burner going 1-8-3 against the spread in its last 12 games.
5-Dime Seattle Seahawks - I like Seattle, with one of the best homefield advantages, to beat Jacksonville. The Seahawks are in a desperate situation. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a terrible situational spot.
The Jaguars are traveling cross-country following back-to-back division victories. The Jaguars haven't won two straight road games in two years. The Jaguars, under Jack Del Rio, are 0-7 against the spread off consecutive straight-up and against the spread victories.
It's not just the situation. I don't believe the Jaguars are very good. They have lost 14 of their last 21 games.
The Jaguars have a weak secondary and their offensive line partially consists of two rookie tackles, who are both questionable. Eugene Monroe has been battling the flu, while Eben Britton missed last week's game because of a sprained knee. Both have taken their share of lumps.
On offense, the Jaguars rely heavily on running back Maurice Jones-Drew. But if you discount Jones-Drew's 60-yard run against a weak Houston rush defense, the Jaguars have averaged only 3.0 yards a carry in their last two games.
Seattle has offensive line injuries, too. Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones is out. So is Sean Locklear and Rob Sims. But Matt Hasselbeck has practiced this week after missing the past two games with a rib injury. He's expected to start.
Hasselbeck would give the Seahawks a huge emotional boost. I'm fine, though, if backup Seneca Wallace starts again. The Seahawks have become more run-oriented and their quarterback takes short drops making it easier to pass protect. The Jaguars also lack a strong pass rush.
Seattle coach Jim Mora admitted this is a crucial game. The Seahawks have a big home field advantage. There isn't a louder outdoor stadium than Qwest Field.
The Seahawks are 10-5-1 against the spread in their last 16 home contests. They have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference home games and have covered 10 of the past 12 times when playing following back-to-back losses.
