Sunday NFL System Club Play GC-
On Sunday the system club play is on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Game 204 at 1:00 eastern. The Jaguars fit into 3 different systems today. What we want to do is play on week 4 under dogs of +1.5 or more that are 1-2 and off a win. These first time winners are 43-12 ats long term. The Titans fit into a negative system that plays against road teams that are 0-3 and coming off a previous road game provided today's opponent has at least 1 win on the season. This system has cashed over 85% of the time. The Public will be all over the Titans, with the belief that they are simply too good to lose 4 straight to open the season. Unfortunately for the Titans,last years results mean squat at this point as they have struggled against the pass this season. When installed as a road favorite vs less than .500 teams who have revenge they are just 2-8 ats. Look for the Titans to struggle once again.We nailed both top plays on Saturday including the big 5 unit side on UTEP. On Sundays late phone front we have a Double 14-1,16-2 Week 4 system that dates to 1973. My oldest system in the library. This will be a 5 unit play and may very well be upgraded to 6 units as the NFL Underdog goy. I also have a 90% subset system where sizeable dogs have won the game straight up 9 of 10 times. Add in a totals play from a perfect week 4 angle and we have a solid Sunday card you wont want to miss. Take the Jaguars on Sunday as the system club play. Bol GC-
On Sunday the system club play is on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Game 204 at 1:00 eastern. The Jaguars fit into 3 different systems today. What we want to do is play on week 4 under dogs of +1.5 or more that are 1-2 and off a win. These first time winners are 43-12 ats long term. The Titans fit into a negative system that plays against road teams that are 0-3 and coming off a previous road game provided today's opponent has at least 1 win on the season. This system has cashed over 85% of the time. The Public will be all over the Titans, with the belief that they are simply too good to lose 4 straight to open the season. Unfortunately for the Titans,last years results mean squat at this point as they have struggled against the pass this season. When installed as a road favorite vs less than .500 teams who have revenge they are just 2-8 ats. Look for the Titans to struggle once again.We nailed both top plays on Saturday including the big 5 unit side on UTEP. On Sundays late phone front we have a Double 14-1,16-2 Week 4 system that dates to 1973. My oldest system in the library. This will be a 5 unit play and may very well be upgraded to 6 units as the NFL Underdog goy. I also have a 90% subset system where sizeable dogs have won the game straight up 9 of 10 times. Add in a totals play from a perfect week 4 angle and we have a solid Sunday card you wont want to miss. Take the Jaguars on Sunday as the system club play. Bol GC-
<TABLE id=Table4 border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center><TBODY><TR><TD style="HEIGHT: 7px" vAlign=top align=middle>of Services Purchased by User
</TD></TR><TR><TD style="HEIGHT: 2px" vAlign=top align=middle>OCTOBER 4 2009
FRANK PATRON 20000 UNIT NFL LOCK
FRANK PATRON
20000 UNIT NFL LOCK
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7.5
Hope they play better than the Vols
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR><TD style="HEIGHT: 2px" vAlign=top align=middle>OCTOBER 4 2009
FRANK PATRON 20000 UNIT NFL LOCK
FRANK PATRON
20000 UNIT NFL LOCK
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7.5
Hope they play better than the Vols
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Bob Valentino
Bob Valentino 30 DIME NFL Sunday Winner ... 30 DIME: STEELERS (minus the points vs. Chargers)
NOTE: This number is currently at Pittsburgh -6 1/2. Because 6 is a key number in the NFL (especially if overtime comes into play), I want you to buy the half-pont and lay -6 with the Steelers.
As always, shop around for the best number you can get. Don't ever lay more points on a favorite than you have to or take back less points with an underdog than are available!
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
Bob Valentino 30 DIME NFL Sunday Winner ... 30 DIME: STEELERS (minus the points vs. Chargers)
NOTE: This number is currently at Pittsburgh -6 1/2. Because 6 is a key number in the NFL (especially if overtime comes into play), I want you to buy the half-pont and lay -6 with the Steelers.
As always, shop around for the best number you can get. Don't ever lay more points on a favorite than you have to or take back less points with an underdog than are available!
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
Dr. Bob writing
NFL Best Bet Sides
2 Star Selection
Oakland (+9) 23 HOUSTON 24
04-Oct-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I can't think of many times that I've seen worse quarterbacking from an NFL quarterback than what I've seen from the Raiders' JaMarcus Russell the last two weeks. Russell has had troubles completing even short passes and has managed just 141 pass yards at 2.8 yards per pass play against the Chiefs and Broncos. The Raiders actually beat the Chiefs when Russell suddenly got his act together to lead a game winning touchdown drive and he looked pretty good against the Chargers in week 1 (6.8 yppp including a beautiful 4th down bomb for a TD). Russell is not as bad as he's been the last two weeks, but his lifetime 52% completion percentage (41% this year) and 5.2 yppp average are still among the worst among NFL starters (especially now that Brady Quinn is out of a job in Cleveland). However, despite how poorly Russell has played so far this season the math using this year's games only would favor Houston by just 8 points in this game and it's pretty reasonable to think that Russell won't be as bad going forward as he's been so far this season. Russell should certainly have better numbers today against a bad Houston secondary that's given up 7.3 yppp to a collection of sub-par quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.8 yppp against an average team. More importantly, Russell probably won't have to do much for the Raiders to move the ball since their collection of talented backs should have an easy time running against a Texans' defensive front that has allowed an average of 208 rushing yards at 6.6 ypr in their first 3 games. Russell is much better when he's got a running attack to rely on (his only good game against San Diego was also the only game in which the Raiders ran the ball well). Overall, the Raiders have been 1.1 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while Houston's defense has been 1.7 yppl worse than average (7.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team) - so the Raiders actually have an advantage when they have the ball.
Houston's offense also has an advantage, as the Texans have averaged a healthy 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow just 4.9 yppl to an average attack. That unit is going up against a solid Raiders' defense that has been average on the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl) and has the league's best shutdown cornerback in Nnamdi Asomugha to slow down perhaps the league's best receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson was held to just 2 catches for 19 yards by Asomugha in last season's 27-16 Raiders' upset win as a 7 point dog, he didn't play in the 2007 meeting, and was held to just 1 catch for 9 yards by Oakland's All-Pro corner in the 2006 game. Slowing down Johnson again would give the Raiders a good chance to win this game and they are certainly capable of keeping this game competitive.
My ratings favor Houston by just 6 1/2 points in this game and as I mentioned earlier the math would favor the Texans by only 8 points using this year's games only (i.e. if Russell continues to play below his normal poor standards). In addition to the line value the Raiders apply to a very strong 72-18-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and week 4 home favorites are just 26-57-1 ATS if they enter the game with a losing record, including 7-32-1 ATS when laying more than 5 points. I'll take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10.
NFL Strong Opinions
Buffalo (-2.0) 23 MIAMI 16
04-Oct-09 01:05 PM Pacific Time
My 2-Star play on Miami Under 7 1/2 wins is looking pretty good so far and the Dolphins now are without starting quarterback Chad Pennington. Pennington wasn't having a good season (69% completions, but just 5.6 yards per attempt and 4.8 yards per pass play), but new starter Chad Henne has completed only 55% of his 31 career passes for just 5.1 ypa. Miami has been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 6.2 yppl and I still don't think that perception has caught up with reality concerning the Dolphins. Buffalo is a decent team that has averaged 5.4 yppl and allowed 5.5 yppl against a slightly tougher than average schedule and they beat up on the only bad team they faced - a 33-20 win over Tampa Bay. My ratings favor Buffalo by 3 points in this game and the Bills apply to a solid 176-95-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less
San Diego (+6.5) 21 PITTSBURGH 22
04-Oct-09 05:20 PM Pacific Time
Pittsburgh is not as good as they were last season, as the defense hasn't been as good without star S Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are still better than average defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit, but the Chargers have an attack that is 0.4 yppl better than average and they should have decent success in this game even if LaDanian Tomlinson is out again this week. Pittsburgh's offense has been surprisingly good so far, averaging 5.5 yppl against 3 good defensive teams (Tennessee, Chicago, and Cincy) and the Chargers are just mediocre defensively. The possible absence of Shawne Merriman (questionable with a groin injury) doesn't concern me given that Merriman's level of play is average at best so far this season (just 6 tackles with zero sacks and zero passes broken up). My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, but assuming that the Steelers are bound to play well because they're motivated by their 1-2 record is simply wrong. In fact, week 4 home favorites are just 26-57-1 ATS if they enter the game with a losing record, including 7-32-1 ATS when laying more than 5 points. That includes a 3-16-1 ATS mark if the home favorite was a 10-6 or better the previous season. San Diego has as much talent as any team in the AFC and the Chargers tend to play their best when they need to, which explains why they are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. I'll consider San Diego a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more
NFL Best Bet Sides
2 Star Selection
Oakland (+9) 23 HOUSTON 24
04-Oct-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I can't think of many times that I've seen worse quarterbacking from an NFL quarterback than what I've seen from the Raiders' JaMarcus Russell the last two weeks. Russell has had troubles completing even short passes and has managed just 141 pass yards at 2.8 yards per pass play against the Chiefs and Broncos. The Raiders actually beat the Chiefs when Russell suddenly got his act together to lead a game winning touchdown drive and he looked pretty good against the Chargers in week 1 (6.8 yppp including a beautiful 4th down bomb for a TD). Russell is not as bad as he's been the last two weeks, but his lifetime 52% completion percentage (41% this year) and 5.2 yppp average are still among the worst among NFL starters (especially now that Brady Quinn is out of a job in Cleveland). However, despite how poorly Russell has played so far this season the math using this year's games only would favor Houston by just 8 points in this game and it's pretty reasonable to think that Russell won't be as bad going forward as he's been so far this season. Russell should certainly have better numbers today against a bad Houston secondary that's given up 7.3 yppp to a collection of sub-par quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.8 yppp against an average team. More importantly, Russell probably won't have to do much for the Raiders to move the ball since their collection of talented backs should have an easy time running against a Texans' defensive front that has allowed an average of 208 rushing yards at 6.6 ypr in their first 3 games. Russell is much better when he's got a running attack to rely on (his only good game against San Diego was also the only game in which the Raiders ran the ball well). Overall, the Raiders have been 1.1 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while Houston's defense has been 1.7 yppl worse than average (7.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team) - so the Raiders actually have an advantage when they have the ball.
Houston's offense also has an advantage, as the Texans have averaged a healthy 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow just 4.9 yppl to an average attack. That unit is going up against a solid Raiders' defense that has been average on the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl) and has the league's best shutdown cornerback in Nnamdi Asomugha to slow down perhaps the league's best receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson was held to just 2 catches for 19 yards by Asomugha in last season's 27-16 Raiders' upset win as a 7 point dog, he didn't play in the 2007 meeting, and was held to just 1 catch for 9 yards by Oakland's All-Pro corner in the 2006 game. Slowing down Johnson again would give the Raiders a good chance to win this game and they are certainly capable of keeping this game competitive.
My ratings favor Houston by just 6 1/2 points in this game and as I mentioned earlier the math would favor the Texans by only 8 points using this year's games only (i.e. if Russell continues to play below his normal poor standards). In addition to the line value the Raiders apply to a very strong 72-18-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and week 4 home favorites are just 26-57-1 ATS if they enter the game with a losing record, including 7-32-1 ATS when laying more than 5 points. I'll take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10.
NFL Strong Opinions
Buffalo (-2.0) 23 MIAMI 16
04-Oct-09 01:05 PM Pacific Time
My 2-Star play on Miami Under 7 1/2 wins is looking pretty good so far and the Dolphins now are without starting quarterback Chad Pennington. Pennington wasn't having a good season (69% completions, but just 5.6 yards per attempt and 4.8 yards per pass play), but new starter Chad Henne has completed only 55% of his 31 career passes for just 5.1 ypa. Miami has been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 6.2 yppl and I still don't think that perception has caught up with reality concerning the Dolphins. Buffalo is a decent team that has averaged 5.4 yppl and allowed 5.5 yppl against a slightly tougher than average schedule and they beat up on the only bad team they faced - a 33-20 win over Tampa Bay. My ratings favor Buffalo by 3 points in this game and the Bills apply to a solid 176-95-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less
San Diego (+6.5) 21 PITTSBURGH 22
04-Oct-09 05:20 PM Pacific Time
Pittsburgh is not as good as they were last season, as the defense hasn't been as good without star S Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are still better than average defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit, but the Chargers have an attack that is 0.4 yppl better than average and they should have decent success in this game even if LaDanian Tomlinson is out again this week. Pittsburgh's offense has been surprisingly good so far, averaging 5.5 yppl against 3 good defensive teams (Tennessee, Chicago, and Cincy) and the Chargers are just mediocre defensively. The possible absence of Shawne Merriman (questionable with a groin injury) doesn't concern me given that Merriman's level of play is average at best so far this season (just 6 tackles with zero sacks and zero passes broken up). My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, but assuming that the Steelers are bound to play well because they're motivated by their 1-2 record is simply wrong. In fact, week 4 home favorites are just 26-57-1 ATS if they enter the game with a losing record, including 7-32-1 ATS when laying more than 5 points. That includes a 3-16-1 ATS mark if the home favorite was a 10-6 or better the previous season. San Diego has as much talent as any team in the AFC and the Chargers tend to play their best when they need to, which explains why they are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. I'll consider San Diego a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more
Jimmy Boyd
5* 2009 NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Cowboys -3
Denver is 3-0, but all of its wins have come against teams that were awful last season. The Cowboys have a lot to prove this year and I like them to show people that they are for real with a big win on the road this week. Denver likes to rush the QB relentlessly, but the Cowboys have more than enough weapons to make the Broncos pay and a running attack that is dominating its opponents no matter who's in the backfield. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.0 points or less and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less period. The Broncos are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 games overall, 5-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. I'll back the Boys laying a small number.
4* Major Vegas Line Mistake of the Week on Raiders +9.5
After a very poor performance against Denver last week, expect the Raiders to finally get their offense going against the worst defense in the league this week. Oakland won 27-16 at home as a 6.5-point dog in last year's matchup and I believe the Raiders have an excellent chance to win this one outright as well. The Texans are giving up a league-high 436.3 yards per game, nearly 100 more than their average from last season. They've been particularly vulnerable against the run, ranking last in the NFL by allowing 204.7 yards per game. And it just so happens that running the football is Oakland's strength. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Take the Raiders.
4* Major Public Opinion Game of the Week on Titans -3
The Titans finished the 2008 regular season with the best record in the AFC. They are now off to a 0-3 start. In other words, this team knows that it can't afford another loss if it hopes to get back in the postseason for a third straight season. Expect Tennessee to get in the win column by defeating a team it has owned this week. The Titans have won 4 of the last 5 games in this matchup and they are an impressive 10-5 in their last 15 games at Jacksonville, including a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS over the last 3 seasons. The Titans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. the AFC South, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. The public is all over this one and I have to agree. Take the Titans.
5* 2009 NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Cowboys -3
Denver is 3-0, but all of its wins have come against teams that were awful last season. The Cowboys have a lot to prove this year and I like them to show people that they are for real with a big win on the road this week. Denver likes to rush the QB relentlessly, but the Cowboys have more than enough weapons to make the Broncos pay and a running attack that is dominating its opponents no matter who's in the backfield. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.0 points or less and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less period. The Broncos are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 games overall, 5-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. I'll back the Boys laying a small number.
4* Major Vegas Line Mistake of the Week on Raiders +9.5
After a very poor performance against Denver last week, expect the Raiders to finally get their offense going against the worst defense in the league this week. Oakland won 27-16 at home as a 6.5-point dog in last year's matchup and I believe the Raiders have an excellent chance to win this one outright as well. The Texans are giving up a league-high 436.3 yards per game, nearly 100 more than their average from last season. They've been particularly vulnerable against the run, ranking last in the NFL by allowing 204.7 yards per game. And it just so happens that running the football is Oakland's strength. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Take the Raiders.
4* Major Public Opinion Game of the Week on Titans -3
The Titans finished the 2008 regular season with the best record in the AFC. They are now off to a 0-3 start. In other words, this team knows that it can't afford another loss if it hopes to get back in the postseason for a third straight season. Expect Tennessee to get in the win column by defeating a team it has owned this week. The Titans have won 4 of the last 5 games in this matchup and they are an impressive 10-5 in their last 15 games at Jacksonville, including a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS over the last 3 seasons. The Titans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. the AFC South, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. The public is all over this one and I have to agree. Take the Titans.
