Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raiders/Texans O 41(-105 5dimes)
Oakland finally gets their offense going against the worst defense in the NFL this week. But Houston puts up another big number on the scoreboard as well as this one flies OVER the total by the end of the 3rd quarter. Houston has scored 58 points in their last 2 games combined, but they've given up over 24 points in all 3 games, including 31 to both Jacksonville and Tennessee the last two weeks. The Titans and Jaguars are two teams not known for having explosive offenses, kind of like Oakland. The Raiders scored 27 points on Houston last year in a 27-16 home win in December. Don't expect this Raiders' defense to limit Houston to only 16 points this time around, but they should still be able to match their offensive output of 27 points. The Raiders rushed for 139 yards and passed for 223 more in last year's meeting. Even JaMarcus Russell will look like Peyton Manning against his putrid Texans' defense. Houston is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 17-4 in the Texans' last 21 games following a loss overall. The OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders' last 10 games during Week 4. After three straight weeks of lackluster offensive play from Oakland, this is their breakout game offensively. Take the OVER 41 points here. (Obviously big action is pouring in on the OVER and for good reason, so take the OVER all the way up to 44 as a 6* Play, 44.5 and higher is a 5* Play)
5* Ravens/Pats AFC "Big Game" BLOOD BATH on New England Patriots -1(-114 5dimes)
Tom Brady now has three games under his belt, and the Patriots are starting to look like the old New England team that won 3 Super Bowls. New England won 26-10 at home against a very good Atlanta team last week, and they did it with sound defense and a solid running game with not much needed from Brady. He still managed to throw for 277 yards, but it was the 168 rushing yards led by 100-plus from veteran Fred Taylor that really made this offense tough to tame. The Pats held Michael Turner and the ground game to only 58 yards on 17 carries. New England's defense is giving up just 16.7 points per game this season and 88 rushing yards per contest. Baltimore has played a very easy schedule, taking care of the Browns and Chiefs and escaping with a win over San Diego. This is easily their toughest test this season, and they will fail. The Patriots are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Pats are finding their way right now, and Baltimore isn't about to get in their way Sunday. Take the Patriots and lay the points.
4* NFL Sunday "SLEEPER" on Bengals/Browns O 38(-103 5dimes)
Odds makers are sleeping on this Cleveland offense after a terrible start to the season. Insert Derek Anderson. This is just the move that head coach Eric Mangini needed to make after Brady Quinn simply didn't get the job done through 3 games. Anderson will give this Cleveland offense a spark, and we have no doubt this will be by far their best offensive output of they year. Cincinnati could be in a letdown spot defensively after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, which will also help Cleveland's offense get going. But the Bengals are the team that will put up the majority of the points against a Browns' defense that is giving up a ridiculous 31.7 points per game. You can chalk up Cincinnati for 28 or more points in this one, and Cleveland will score enough points to get the OVER. Carson Palmer has led this Cincinnati offense to 27.0 points per game over their last 2 games, coming against good Pittsburgh and Green Bay defenses. Cincinnati is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog since 1992. The average score in these games is Bengals 24.4 and their opponents 28.5 for nearly 53 points per contest. Cincinnati's defense will take a step back here, but their offense will pick up the slack. Take the OVER 38 points.
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raiders/Texans O 41(-105 5dimes)
Oakland finally gets their offense going against the worst defense in the NFL this week. But Houston puts up another big number on the scoreboard as well as this one flies OVER the total by the end of the 3rd quarter. Houston has scored 58 points in their last 2 games combined, but they've given up over 24 points in all 3 games, including 31 to both Jacksonville and Tennessee the last two weeks. The Titans and Jaguars are two teams not known for having explosive offenses, kind of like Oakland. The Raiders scored 27 points on Houston last year in a 27-16 home win in December. Don't expect this Raiders' defense to limit Houston to only 16 points this time around, but they should still be able to match their offensive output of 27 points. The Raiders rushed for 139 yards and passed for 223 more in last year's meeting. Even JaMarcus Russell will look like Peyton Manning against his putrid Texans' defense. Houston is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 17-4 in the Texans' last 21 games following a loss overall. The OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders' last 10 games during Week 4. After three straight weeks of lackluster offensive play from Oakland, this is their breakout game offensively. Take the OVER 41 points here. (Obviously big action is pouring in on the OVER and for good reason, so take the OVER all the way up to 44 as a 6* Play, 44.5 and higher is a 5* Play)
5* Ravens/Pats AFC "Big Game" BLOOD BATH on New England Patriots -1(-114 5dimes)
Tom Brady now has three games under his belt, and the Patriots are starting to look like the old New England team that won 3 Super Bowls. New England won 26-10 at home against a very good Atlanta team last week, and they did it with sound defense and a solid running game with not much needed from Brady. He still managed to throw for 277 yards, but it was the 168 rushing yards led by 100-plus from veteran Fred Taylor that really made this offense tough to tame. The Pats held Michael Turner and the ground game to only 58 yards on 17 carries. New England's defense is giving up just 16.7 points per game this season and 88 rushing yards per contest. Baltimore has played a very easy schedule, taking care of the Browns and Chiefs and escaping with a win over San Diego. This is easily their toughest test this season, and they will fail. The Patriots are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Pats are finding their way right now, and Baltimore isn't about to get in their way Sunday. Take the Patriots and lay the points.
4* NFL Sunday "SLEEPER" on Bengals/Browns O 38(-103 5dimes)
Odds makers are sleeping on this Cleveland offense after a terrible start to the season. Insert Derek Anderson. This is just the move that head coach Eric Mangini needed to make after Brady Quinn simply didn't get the job done through 3 games. Anderson will give this Cleveland offense a spark, and we have no doubt this will be by far their best offensive output of they year. Cincinnati could be in a letdown spot defensively after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, which will also help Cleveland's offense get going. But the Bengals are the team that will put up the majority of the points against a Browns' defense that is giving up a ridiculous 31.7 points per game. You can chalk up Cincinnati for 28 or more points in this one, and Cleveland will score enough points to get the OVER. Carson Palmer has led this Cincinnati offense to 27.0 points per game over their last 2 games, coming against good Pittsburgh and Green Bay defenses. Cincinnati is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog since 1992. The average score in these games is Bengals 24.4 and their opponents 28.5 for nearly 53 points per contest. Cincinnati's defense will take a step back here, but their offense will pick up the slack. Take the OVER 38 points.
