THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4
NFL
Oakland (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at Houston (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Texans, who have already faltered twice at home, again take to the Reliant Stadium grass when they host the offensively challenged Raiders.
Houston went back-and-forth with winless Jacksonville on Sunday but managed just three points in the second half – on a third-quarter field goal – and lost 31-24 as a four-point home favorite. QB Matt Schaub (26 of 35, 300 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had his second straight solid start, but the Texans gave up 119 rushing yards and three TDs to RB Maurice Jones-Drew as the Jaguars racked up 184 yards on the ground.
Oakland got drubbed by Denver 23-3 as a one-point home pup Sunday, finishing with a paltry 137 total yards. QB JaMarcus Russell was dismal again, going 12-for-21 for just 61 yards while throwing two INTs, and the Raiders finished with just nine first downs. They also lost the turnover battle 3-1, had a 12½-minute deficit in time of possession and gave up 215 rushing yards.
Houston is 3-1 SU and ATS in four total meetings in this rivalry, though Oakland earned a 27-16 home upset as a seven-point ‘dog last December. The underdog has won and cashed in all four contests.
Despite the Texans’ 1-2 ATS start, they remain on pointspread runs of 7-3 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 after a non-cover, though they’ve gone just 1-8 ATS in their last nine October starts. The Raiders had a four-game ATS win streak halted last week versus Denver (all as an underdog) and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 20-41-1 after a non-cover, 17-35-1 against losing teams and 8-18 in October.
The over for Houston is on rolls of 17-4-1 after a SU loss and 20-8-1 after an ATS setback, but the under has hit in five of the Texans’ last seven games against AFC foes. For Oakland, the under is on runs of 8-3-1 overall, 8-2-1 after a SU loss, 6-2-1 against the AFC and 7-3-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Tennessee (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Titans, who led the NFL with a 13-3 mark in regular-season play last year, head to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium in dire need of a victory when they take on the division rival Jaguars.
Tennessee fought back from a 14-0 first-quarter deficit against the Jets to take a 17-14 lead, but couldn’t finish it off in a 24-17 road loss Sunday as a one-point pup. QB Kerry Collins (15 of 37, 170 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) finished the game with 13 straight incompletions, and although the Titans outgained New York 286-229, they also had four turnovers, including two fumbles on special teams that led to two New York touchdowns.
Jacksonville upset Houston 31-24 as a four-point road pup Sunday, allowing just three second-half points to win for only the second time in its last 10 games (3-7 ATS), a skid dating to last November. QB David Garrard (18 of 30, 214 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) wasn’t flashy, but he protected the football, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (23 carries, 119 yards, 3 TDs) had a big day, including a 61-yard TD jaunt in the second quarter and the game-winning TD early in the fourth. The Jags finished with 184 rushing yards.
Tennessee is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five clashes in this AFC South rivalry, winning and covering in both meetings last year, including a 24-14 road victory laying one point in November. The Titans are 5-2 ATS on their last seven visits to Jacksonville, but the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Titans are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall and 0-4 giving points, but they remain on positive pointspread upticks of 7-2 against losing teams, 7-2 after a non-cover, 12-4 inside the division and 18-7 on the highway. The Jaguars are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 starts as a home pup, but they are otherwise stuck in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall, 1-8 at home, 2-6 against the AFC and 2-6 against losing teams.
Tennessee is on “under” runs of 9-3 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk and 6-0 with the Titans laying three points or less, and the under for Jacksonville is on streaks of 7-2 with the Jags getting points and 8-2 with Jack Del Rio’s troops installed as a home dog of three or less. Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 13 clashes in Jacksonville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Baltimore (3-0 SU and ATS) at New England (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The Ravens put their unbeaten mark on the line when they travel to Gillette Stadium for a battle with the Patriots.
Baltimore pounded overmatched Cleveland 34-3 Sunday and easily cashing as an overwhelming 13½-point home chalk, moving to 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight dating to last December. QB Joe Flacco (25 of 35 for 342 yards, no INTs) had a huge day, including hurling a 72-yard TD pass to Derrick Mason. The Ravens’ defense posted four INTs in winning the turnover battle 4-1 and held the Browns to just 186 total yards, while Baltimore’s offense churned out 479 yards.
New England struggled a bit before scoring 10 fourth-quarter points to put away Atlanta 26-10 as a 4½-point home favorite Sunday. QB Tom Brady (25 of 42, 277 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a solid day, and veteran RB Fred Taylor (21 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) came up big as the Pats outgained the Browns 445-257 in total yards.
These teams last met in December 2007, with New England rallying for a 27-24 road win en route to its unbeaten regular season. However, Baltimore easily covered as an eye-popping 19-point underdog to end a three-game ATS run by the Pats in this rivalry.
The Ravens are on nothing but positive pointspread runs, including 18-5 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-1 against the AFC, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 13-3 after a SU win, 8-3 as a ‘dog and 5-0 catching three points or less. The Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 October affairs, but they are on ATS slides of 4-11 at home (all as a chalk), 5-13 after a SU win and 3-9 after a spread-cover.
The over for Baltimore is on tears of 7-2-1 on the highway and 6-1-1 with the Ravens as a road pup, while the over for New England is on upswings of 7-3 overall (all as a favorite), 4-1 at home and 5-2 in conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
Cincinnati (2-1 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Bengals, off to a surprising start, make the short instate trip to Cleveland Municipal Stadium to face the struggling Browns.
Cincinnati posted its second upset in as many weeks last Sunday, dumping defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 23-20 as a 3½-point home ‘dog, on the heels of an upset win at Green Bay as a nine-point pup. QB Carson Palmer (20 of 37, 183 yards, no INTs) had just one TD pass, but he made it count on a 4-yard strike to Andre Caldwell followed by a successful 2-point conversion with just 18 seconds remaining to give the Bengals the win despite being outgained 373-273 and having a nearly nine-minute deficit in time of possession.
Cleveland got hammered at Baltimore 34-3 Sunday as a 13½-point underdog, falling to 0-9 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games, as the Browns finished 2008 on a six-game slide. Brady Quinn passed for just 34 yards, with one INT, before getting yanked at halftime. Derek Anderson – who will start this week – relieved Quinn and threw three INTs in the second half while going 11 of 19 for 92 yards. The Browns got outgained 479-186 and lost the turnover battle 4-1.
These AFC North rivals have alternated SU and ATS wins over the past five meetings, with the visitor winning and cashing in both of last year’s contests, including the Bengals’ 14-0 December victory as a three-point ‘dog. The underdog is also on a 4-0 ATS run.
The Bengals are on ATS skids of 2-8 as a chalk, 4-10 against the AFC and 2-5 inside the division, but they currently sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall and 4-1 following a SU win. The Browns have cashed in their last five October starts, but the ATS streaks spiral downward from there, including 1-10-1 overall, 0-5-1 at home, 0-5 against winning teams, 0-6 as an underdog and 0-4 against AFC North rivals.
The under is on tears for Cincinnati of 5-2 overall, 5-0 with the Bengals favored and 4-0-1 against losing teams, and the under for Cleveland is on surges of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in the division and 4-1-1 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five clashes overall – including the last three in a row -- and eight of the last 10 in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
N.Y. Giants (3-0, 2-1 ATS), at Kansas City (0-3 SU and ATS)
The surging Giants look to remain unbeaten as they play their third straight road game, while the Chiefs continue to seek new coach Todd Haley’s first win in this non-conference clash at Arrowhead Stadium.
New York shut out Tampa Bay 24-0 Sunday laying six points, winning and covering on the road for a second consecutive week and improving to 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games. Eli Manning (14 of 21, 161 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient, letting Ahmad Bradshaw (14 carries, 104 yards) and Brandon Jacobs (26 carries, 92 yards, 1 TD) do the heavy lifting as the Giants rolled up 226 rushing yards. The Giants’ defense stole the show, though, holding the Bucs’ hapless offense to 86 yards and five first downs (all of which came in the final 1½ quarters).
Kansas City got pelted at Philadelphia 34-14 as a nine-point ‘dog, falling to 2-17 SU (8-11 ATS) in its last 19 games since the 2008 season opener. QB Matt Cassel threw for two TDs, with no INTs, but his 14-of-18 effort yielded just 90 yards, and the Chiefs finished with 196 total yards while allowing 420, including 327 through the air.
In two meaningful meetings this decade between these teams, New York has gone 2-0 SU and ATS, most recently prevailing 27-17 as a 2½-point home chalk in December 2005.
The Giants are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 35-17-2 overall, a sterling 21-5 on the highway (12-2 last 14), 7-1 as a road chalk, 16-5-1 in October and 21-7 following an ATS win. On the flip side, the Chiefs are on ATS declines of 0-5 overall, 0-5 after a SU loss, 0-4 after a non-cover, 0-4 as a pup and 3-11 at Arrowhead.
New York is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 after a SU win, and the total has remained low in the last four meetings in this rivalry. Conversely, K.C. is on “over” tears of 6-2 at home and 7-1 as a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Detroit (1-2 SU and ATS) at Chicago (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Lions, coming off their first win since 2007, aim for two in a row when they travel to Soldier Field to face the Bears in an NFC North contest.
Detroit upset Washington 19-14 as a 6½-point home ‘dog Sunday, ending a 19-game losing skid (7-12 ATS) that dated to a 25-20 home win over Kansas City on Dec. 23, 2007. The Lions got out to a 13-0 lead and held on from there, with rookie QB Matthew Stafford (21 of 36, 241 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) leading a turnover-free offense that also got 101 rushing yards on 16 attempts from Kevin Smith. The Lions’ defense allowed just 65 rushing yards.
Chicago topped Seattle 25-19 as a one-point road chalk in Week 3, rallying from a 13-0 first-half deficit. QB Jay Cutler (21 of 27, 247 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid outing, connecting with Devin Hester on the winning 36-yard TD pass with two minutes remaining. It was an otherwise evenly played game, as the Bears finished with 318 yards and two turnovers while allowing 346 yards and forcing a pair of turnovers.
Detroit is 4-1 ATS (2-3 SU) in the last five clashes with Chicago, most recently cashing as a heavy 12½-point road pup in a 27-23 loss last November. The underdog is on an 8-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Lions carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 after a SU win, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-11 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. However, they have covered in six of their last seven road games, all from the underdog role, and they are on further ATS upswings of 4-1 in division play and 10-4-1 when catching double digits. The Bears are on a 10-4 ATS tear in October, but they are otherwise on pointspread skids of 0-5 against NFC North foes, 5-16-2 after a SU win and 4-10-1 as a home chalk.
The over for Detroit is on streaks of 17-7-1 overall, 20-6 on the highway, 10-2-1 against winning teams, 5-0 after a SU win and 9-1-1 after a spread-cover, and the over for Chicago is on rolls of 29-13-1 against the NFC and 17-5 with the Bears favored at home. Also, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Tampa Bay (0-3 SU and ATS) at Washington (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Buccaneers, still seeking their first win under new coach Raheem Morris, head to FedEx Field to take on the scuffling Redskins, who are coming off a humbling loss.
Tampa Bay got blanked by the Giants 24-0 Sunday as a six-point home pup, the team’s seventh consecutive defeat (1-6 ATS). The Bucs finished with an absolutely dismal 86 total yards and five first downs. Starting QB Byron Leftwich played into the fourth quarter, yet mustered just 22 passing yards on a 7-of-16 effort, with one INT. The Bucs’ defense yielded 397 yards, including 226 on the ground.
Second-year QB Josh Johnson replaced Leftwich against New York and has been named the starter for this game.
Washington allowed Detroit to snap its 19-game losing skid in a 19-14 setback as a 6½-point road favorite last Sunday. QB Jason Campbell (27 of 41, 340 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) finished with solid numbers, but the Redskins trailed 13-0 at halftime and couldn’t complete the comeback against a team that hadn’t won since 2007. Washington ran for just 64 yards while allowing 154, leading to a nearly 14-minute time-of-possession deficit.
Tampa Bay is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 19-13 home win laying 3½ points in the most recent clash in November 2007. The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 contests, and the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll.
The Buccaneers are on spread-covering slides of 0-5 overall, 1-7 against losing teams, 1-5 getting points, 1-4 against NFC foes and 4-8 as a non-division road pup. Likewise, the Redskins are on ATS dives of 1-7-3 overall, 1-6 at FedEx Field, 3-14-3 against losing teams and 0-4 as a home chalk.
Tampa Bay is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 11-1 against losing teams and 12-4 following a double-digit home loss. Conversely, for Washington, the under is on stretches of 13-3-1 overall, 8-0 at home, 8-0-1 with the Redskins favored and 8-2-1 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Seattle (1-2 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
The Colts put their unbeaten mark on the line when they play host to the Seahawks at Lucas Oil Stadium in a non-conference contest.
Indianapolis ripped defending NFC champion Arizona 31-10 Sunday night as a three-point road pup, winning and cashing for the second straight week on the road. QB Peyton Manning had a huge night, completing 24 of 35 passes for 375 yards and four TDs with one INT, and the Colts amassed a whopping 505 total yards while allowing 323. Indy also forced three turnovers – including a fumble at its own 5-yard line and an INT in the end zone.
Seattle fell to Chicago 25-19 as a one-point home pup Sunday, giving up a Jay Cutler-to-Devin Hester TD pass with two minutes remaining in a game it led 13-0 in the second quarter. QB Seneca Wallace, subbing for Matt Hasselbeck (broken rib), went 26 of 44 for 261 yards with one TD and one INT, but the Seahawks mustered just six second-half points – on a pair of fourth-quarter field goals from Olindo Mare, who also missed two makeable field goals.
Hasselbeck almost certainly will not play today.
Outside of preseason play, these teams have met just twice in the past nine years, with Indianapolis taking a 37-24 road win laying six points in October 2000, and Seattle winning 28-13 giving 10 points at home on Christmas Eve 2005 when the Colts rested several starters in what was a meaningless game for them.
The Colts are on a 3-8 ATS purge on their home field and are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 starts coming off a spread-cover, but they are on ATS upticks of 4-1-1 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-2 in October. The Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen following a non-cover, but they are on a 6-21 ATS freefall in October and a 2-5-1 ATS skid against winning teams. Seattle is also 9-21 ATS in its last 30 non-division roadies.
The under is on runs of 8-3-1 overall for Seattle, 7-2 for the Seahawks against winning teams, 4-1 overall for Indy and 5-2 for the Colts at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER
N.Y. Jets (3-0 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (3-0 SU and ATS)
A battle of unbeatens takes place in the Big Easy when the surprising Jets square off against the high-octane Saints at the Superdome.
New York held off Tennessee 24-17 Sunday giving one point at home, staying perfect SU and ATS this year following a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS skid that killed its 2008 season. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez (17 of 30, 171 yards, 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, 1 INT) wasn’t flashy but did just enough for the Jets, including crashing into the end zone on a 14-yard TD run on the game’s opening possession. New York finished with just 229 total yards, while allowing 286, but it won the turnover battle 4-2, scoring two touchdowns off of two Tennessee special-teams fumbles
New Orleans bounced host Buffalo 27-7 laying 5½ points Sunday, holding the Bills scoreless in the second half. QB Drew Brees (16 of 29, 172 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had a sub-par game by his standards, but the Saints rolled up 222 rushing yards, paced by RB Pierre Thomas (14 carries, 126 yards, 2 TDs), who averaged a whopping 9 yards per carry. New Orleans allowed just 243 total yards and had a seven-minute time-of-possession edge.
These teams have split two regular-season meetings this decade SU and ATS, with the road team winning and cashing each time. Most recently, New Orleans prevailed 21-19 as a 2½-point pup in November 2005.
The Jets are on pointspread surges of 5-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 as a road pup, 6-1 after an ATS win, 7-2 after a SU win and 5-2 against winning teams. However, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 1-7 in October and 2-7 against the NFC on the road. The Saints are on an 8-1-1 ATS tear overall and sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 at home, 10-1 as a chalk, 7-0 laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-1 against AFC opponents.
For New York, the under is on upticks of 4-1 overall and 7-3-1 on the road. Meanwhile, the over for New Orleans is on rolls of 20-8-1 overall, 12-1-1 at the Superdome, 14-5-1 with the Saints favored and a lengthy 45-20-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Buffalo (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at Miami (0-3 SU and ATS)
A season after claiming the AFC East title, the Dolphins are still searching for their first win of the 2009 campaign, and if they get it today against the Bills at Land Shark Stadium, it will have to be with a new quarterback.
Miami lost to San Diego 23-13 as a 5½-point road underdog Sunday, and they lost QB Chad Pennington in the process. Pennington (8 of 12, 54 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was unproductive before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in the third quarter. Chad Henne (10 of 19, 92 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT) subbed for Pennington and now assumes the starting role. The Dolphins rushed for 149 yards last week and had a five-minute edge in time of possession, but Henne’s INT was returned for a TD that put the game away.
Buffalo had little for New Orleans on Sunday, losing 27-7 as a 5½-point home pup. QB Trent Edwards was 20 of 35 for a pedestrian 156 passing yards with no TDs and one INT. The Bills allowed the normally pass-happy Saints to rack up 222 rushing yards and a seven-minute time-of-possession advantage. Buffalo’s rushing attack should get a boost this week with the return of RB Marshawn Lynch, who sat out the first three games on suspension.
Miami won and covered in both meetings in this rivalry last year, including a 25-16 home victory laying one point in October. Prior to that, Buffalo was on a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS roll against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 0-4 overall, 1-5 as a home ‘dog, 8-23-1 against losing teams, 8-21-2 within the AFC East and 15-36-1 in Miami. The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven division starts, but they are on positive ATS runs 7-3 on the road (4-0 last four), 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a double-digit home loss and 25-7-1 against losing teams.
The over for Buffalo is on rolls of 4-0 on the road, 4-0 after a SU loss, 7-3-1 as a chalk and 6-2 as a road favorite. The under for Miami is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 with the Dolphins as a pup, 5-2 at home, 5-2 in division play and 7-3 against AFC foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings overall and five of the last seven in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and UNDER
St. Louis (0-3, 2-1 ATS) at San Francisco (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The 49ers, coming off a gut-wrenching Week 3 loss, return home with a good chance to get back on track when they host the dismal Rams at Candlestick Park.
San Francisco had Minnesota on the ropes last Sunday before losing 24-20 as a seven-point road ‘dog on Brett Favre’s 32-yard TD toss to Greg Lewis with two seconds left in the game. QB Shaun Hill (15 of 25, 195 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was serviceable, but he likely missed star RB Frank Gore, who left the game after just one carry due to an ankle injury. The 49ers got outgained 377-246 and also gave up a 101-yard Percy Harvin kick return for a TD.
St. Louis’ struggles continued with a 36-17 home loss to Green Bay last Sunday as a 6½-point pup for its 13th consecutive defeat (5-8 ATS). QB Marc Bulger (3 of 4, 23 yards) left in the second quarter with a shoulder injury, and Kyle Boller (16 of 31, 164 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was fair as a substitute, boosted by Steven Jackson’s 117 rushing yards on 27 carries. But the Rams had three turnovers while forcing none.
Gore is expected to miss at least the next two games, while Bulger will serve as the Rams’ No. 3 quarterback if he dresses, meaning Boller will start
San Francisco won both its games last year against St. Louis, splitting the cash, including a 35-16 home victory as a seven-point chalk in November. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings at The Stick, but the underdog has cashed in seven of the last nine clashes.
The Rams are on pointspread freefalls of 7-15 overall (all as an underdog), 5-13 against winning teams and 3-12 versus NFC West foes. The 49ers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 October starts and 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 from the favorite’s role, but they are on pointspread rolls of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in division play.
San Francisco is on “over” streaks of 10-4 as a favorite and 5-2 at home, but the under for the Niners is on stretches of 6-2 overall and 13-6 against NFC West rivals. St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 in the division, 19-9 on the road and 13-6 with the Rams as a road pup. Also, the under has been the play in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER
Dallas (2-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (3-0 SU and ATS)
The Broncos put their surprising unbeaten mark on the line at Invesco Field in a non-conference clash with the Cowboys.
Denver rolled over offensively challenged Oakland 23-3 Sunday as a one-point road favorite, winning and cashing for the third straight week after ending the 2008 campaign on streaks of 0-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. QB Kyle Orton (13 of 23, 157 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) got plenty of help from RBs Correll Buckhalter (14 carries, 108 yards) and rookie Knowshon Moreno (21 carries, 90 yards, 1 TD) as the Broncos gashed the Raiders for 215 yards. Denver’s defense allowed just 137 total yards and has given up a total of 16 points (one touchdown) this season.
Dallas bounced back from its last-second home loss to the Giants by beating Carolina 21-7 Monday night as a heavy nine-point home chalk. QB Tony Romo (22 of 33, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and RBs Felix Jones and Tashard Choice combined for 176 rushing yards. But the Cowboys still needed Terence Newman’s 27-yard INT return for a TD to put the game away and cover the number.
These teams have met twice this decade in regular-season play, with Denver going 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS). In the most recent clash in November 2005, the Broncos won 24-21 in overtime as a two-point road favorite.
The Broncos have cashed in all three games this season and are on a 6-1-1 ATS run as a home ‘dog, but they remain on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 13-29-1 overall, 7-19-1 at Mile High, 6-17-1 after a SU win, 5-13 against winning teams and 3-9 against the NFC.
The Cowboys have failed to cover in five of their last seven roadies and are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts versus winning teams and 2-5 ATS in their last seven against AFC opponents. However, they are on ATS upswings of 7-2 as a favorite, 7-1-1 as a chalk of three or less and 4-0 as a road favorite of the same price.
The under for Denver is on tears of 10-4-1 overall (3-0 this year), 8-0 after a SU win and 6-1 at home, but the over is 10-4-2 in the Broncos’ last 16 starts as an underdog. The over for Dallas is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 after a SU victory, 7-2 in October, 5-2 on the road and 14-5-2 with the Cowboys favored on the highway. Finally, the last four meetings in this rivalry have cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
San Diego (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-2, 0-3 ATS)
The Steelers, surprising losers of two in a row, look to regain their Super Bowl championship form when they host the Chargers in prime time at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh stumbled at Cincinnati 23-20 Sunday giving 3½ points for its second consecutive SU and ATS loss, both from the favorite’s role. The Steelers led 20-9 entering the fourth quarter, but they gave up TD drives of 85 and 71 yards, with the Bengals getting the game-winning TD with just 18 seconds remaining. QB Ben Roethlisberger (22 of 31, 276 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and RB Willie Parker (25 carries, 93 yards) helped Pittsburgh post a 373-273 yardage edge, and the Steelers had a more than nine-minute edge in time of possession.
San Diego topped Miami 23-13 as a 5½-point home favorite, covering for the first time this season. QB Philip Rivers paved the way, going 18 of 33 for 303 yards, with no TDs but also no INTs, and WR Vincent Jackson (5 catches, 120 yards) also had a big day. Defensively, the Chargers got an INT return for a TD from Eric Weddle to seal the victory, but still gave up 149 rushing yards. San Diego’s defense is surrendering 142.3 rushing yards per contest, but Pittsburgh’s running is only netting 66.3 ypg.
The Chargers were without star RB LaDainian Tomlinson (ankle), but he is expected back tonight..
These two squads met twice last year, with Pittsburgh going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, both at home. In November, the Steelers squeaked out an ugly 11-10 win laying 4½ points – failing to cover when the officials mistakenly ruled a fumble return for a touchdown as non-advanceable. Then in the divisional playoff round, they won 35-24 as a 6½-point chalk.
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, with the favorite also 6-2 ATS in that span, and the Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh. San Diego has also dropped 13 consecutive regular-season games at Pittsburgh.
Dating to their Super Bowl win, the Steelers have dropped four straight ATS decisions (all as a chalk), but they remain on pointspread rolls of 5-1 at home (all as a favorite), 6-2 against winning teams, 19-7 laying 3½ to 10 points and 24-9-1 in October. The Chargers are on positive ATS runs of 19-7-3 as a ‘dog, 10-2-1 catching 3½ to 10 points and 20-9-1 against the AFC, but they’ve cashed in just two of their last eight road games and are on a 2-6 ATS skid following a spread-cover.
The over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 46-20-2 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 14-5 against the AFC, and the over for San Diego is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 18-6-2 on the highway and 7-3-1 with the Chargers as a road pup. That said, the under has hit in three of the last four meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
