Cpaw, not sure you care, but I know lots on this board will. This fantasy sports gametime service you posted earlier and have posted quite a few times of late has been fradulently utilizing two monitors already, putting in picks oN huge massive money lines and manipulating spreads on another monitor so that he gives himself dozens of points. His record and the service is a complete fraud, and its been confirmed. Please be warned!
Dr. Bob
NY Jets (+7) 18 SAN DIEGO 21
17-Jan-10 01:40 PM Pacific Time
If Mark Sanchez continues to avoid interceptions then the Jets may end up being Super Bowl champions this season. This New York team reminds me a lot of the Ravens team that won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. All Dilfer had to do was avoid turnovers and let his rushing attack and great defense do the rest - and that's all Sanchez has to do too. Sanchez threw 20 interceptions in his first 13 games of the season, but has thrown zero picks in each of the last 3 games. Sanchez can even afford to throw an interception and still win this game given how good the Jets' defense is.
New York's defense is the best in the NFL by far, allowing just 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. However, the defense is even better than those numbers suggest, as the Jets' pass defense is the best I have ever seen in the games in which veteran cornerback Lito Sheppard was healthy and playing opposite of the NFL's best CB Darrelle Revis. Sheppard started only 3 games through week 11 (weeks 1, 2 and 6) and returned to the lineup for good in week 12. The Jets' pass defense has been incredible in those 10 games, allowing just 3.7 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team. Even if I take out their week 17 domination of the Bengals (0 pass yards on 22 pass plays), the Jets' pass defense is still a mind blowing 2.2 yppp better than average - the best I have ever seen in the NFL. Mediocre and bad quarterbacks had no chance to throw against the Jets, but even very good quarterbacks were held in check. Houston's very good pass attack managed just 4.1 yards per pass play in week 1 and the Jets limited Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 4.6 yppp in week 2. Only Peyton Manning's 192 pass yards on 21 pass plays in week 16 blemished the Jets' incredible record, but the Jets were still 2.1 yppp better than average against those 3 great quarterbacks (5.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.5 yppp against an average defense)
San Diego's Philip Rivers had perhaps the best season of any quarterback, averaging 8.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback, but my math model projects a modest 6.0 yppp for Rivers in this game. The Chargers' rushing attack is terrible (3.5 ypr against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team) and my math model predicts just 3.3 ypr for San Diego in this game, so Rivers will have to play exceptionally well to move the ball on the Jets.
With the defense playing so well, Jets' coach Rex Ryan decided to rely on that defense and a good rushing attack while asking his rookie quarterback to take less chances in the passing game. That strategy should continue to work given San Diego's sub-par run defense (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense) and the Chargers' pass defense is just average, so I see no reason why the Jets can't continue to control the ball with their good rushing attack and play action passes. Sanchez threw the ball only 15 times last week, but he averaged 12.1 yards per pass play and has actually been better than average throwing the ball since top receiver Jerricho Cotchery returned from injury in week 8 after missing most of 3 games. Braylon Edwards was acquired in a trade with Cleveland while Cotchery was out and Sanchez has averaged 6.5 yppp with both receivers available to throw to (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). I'm not assuming that Sanchez will continue to avoid interceptions as he's done in his last 3 games, but he should have a decent game against a mediocre Chargers' defense.
My math model projects the Jets to out-gain the Chargers 321 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 276 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game with the Chargers having a projected 0.5 turnover advantage. Overall, the math picks this game even despite 4.3 points of home field advantage. San Diego does apply to a 37-8 ATS playoff situation and that angle will keep me from making the Jets a Best Bet in this game. However, the line value favoring New York is more significant than the situation favoring the Chargers and I'll consider the Jets a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I'll lean with the Under at 41 points or higher.
Dallas (+2.5) 24 MINNESOTA 25
17-Jan-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Dallas is playing the best football in the NFC since free safety Ken Hamlin returned from injury to solidify the defense in week 14. It was week 14 that the Cowboys ended a 2 game losing streak with an upset road win against the unbeaten Saints and Dallas is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS since then.
The Cowboys' pass defense was horrible without Hamlin keeping teams from going deep against them (they allowed 6.9 yards per pass play in 4 games without him), but Dallas rates at 0.9 yppp better than average with Hamlin in the lineup and their run defense is 0.2 ypr better than average. I rate Minnesota's offense at 0.6 yards per play better than average but that's only slightly better than a Dallas defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average with Hamlin in the lineup.
The Cowboys' offense has been outstanding this season, averaging 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and they have a big edge over a mediocre Vikings' defense that has surrendered 5.3 yppl to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team.
Minnesota is not as good offensively or defensively as the Cowboys are and my math model projects Dallas with a 6.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl advantage in this game even with the additional home field advantage that home teams in this round of the playoffs have (due to the bye week). Even with the extra 1.5 points of home field advantage my math still picks this game even, so the line value favors the Cowboys. I'll lean with Dallas plus the points and I'll lean over the total.
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NY Jets (+7) 18 SAN DIEGO 21
17-Jan-10 01:40 PM Pacific Time
If Mark Sanchez continues to avoid interceptions then the Jets may end up being Super Bowl champions this season. This New York team reminds me a lot of the Ravens team that won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. All Dilfer had to do was avoid turnovers and let his rushing attack and great defense do the rest - and that's all Sanchez has to do too. Sanchez threw 20 interceptions in his first 13 games of the season, but has thrown zero picks in each of the last 3 games. Sanchez can even afford to throw an interception and still win this game given how good the Jets' defense is.
New York's defense is the best in the NFL by far, allowing just 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. However, the defense is even better than those numbers suggest, as the Jets' pass defense is the best I have ever seen in the games in which veteran cornerback Lito Sheppard was healthy and playing opposite of the NFL's best CB Darrelle Revis. Sheppard started only 3 games through week 11 (weeks 1, 2 and 6) and returned to the lineup for good in week 12. The Jets' pass defense has been incredible in those 10 games, allowing just 3.7 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team. Even if I take out their week 17 domination of the Bengals (0 pass yards on 22 pass plays), the Jets' pass defense is still a mind blowing 2.2 yppp better than average - the best I have ever seen in the NFL. Mediocre and bad quarterbacks had no chance to throw against the Jets, but even very good quarterbacks were held in check. Houston's very good pass attack managed just 4.1 yards per pass play in week 1 and the Jets limited Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 4.6 yppp in week 2. Only Peyton Manning's 192 pass yards on 21 pass plays in week 16 blemished the Jets' incredible record, but the Jets were still 2.1 yppp better than average against those 3 great quarterbacks (5.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.5 yppp against an average defense)
San Diego's Philip Rivers had perhaps the best season of any quarterback, averaging 8.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback, but my math model projects a modest 6.0 yppp for Rivers in this game. The Chargers' rushing attack is terrible (3.5 ypr against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team) and my math model predicts just 3.3 ypr for San Diego in this game, so Rivers will have to play exceptionally well to move the ball on the Jets.
With the defense playing so well, Jets' coach Rex Ryan decided to rely on that defense and a good rushing attack while asking his rookie quarterback to take less chances in the passing game. That strategy should continue to work given San Diego's sub-par run defense (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense) and the Chargers' pass defense is just average, so I see no reason why the Jets can't continue to control the ball with their good rushing attack and play action passes. Sanchez threw the ball only 15 times last week, but he averaged 12.1 yards per pass play and has actually been better than average throwing the ball since top receiver Jerricho Cotchery returned from injury in week 8 after missing most of 3 games. Braylon Edwards was acquired in a trade with Cleveland while Cotchery was out and Sanchez has averaged 6.5 yppp with both receivers available to throw to (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). I'm not assuming that Sanchez will continue to avoid interceptions as he's done in his last 3 games, but he should have a decent game against a mediocre Chargers' defense.
My math model projects the Jets to out-gain the Chargers 321 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 276 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game with the Chargers having a projected 0.5 turnover advantage. Overall, the math picks this game even despite 4.3 points of home field advantage. San Diego does apply to a 37-8 ATS playoff situation and that angle will keep me from making the Jets a Best Bet in this game. However, the line value favoring New York is more significant than the situation favoring the Chargers and I'll consider the Jets a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I'll lean with the Under at 41 points or higher.
Dallas (+2.5) 24 MINNESOTA 25
17-Jan-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Dallas is playing the best football in the NFC since free safety Ken Hamlin returned from injury to solidify the defense in week 14. It was week 14 that the Cowboys ended a 2 game losing streak with an upset road win against the unbeaten Saints and Dallas is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS since then.
The Cowboys' pass defense was horrible without Hamlin keeping teams from going deep against them (they allowed 6.9 yards per pass play in 4 games without him), but Dallas rates at 0.9 yppp better than average with Hamlin in the lineup and their run defense is 0.2 ypr better than average. I rate Minnesota's offense at 0.6 yards per play better than average but that's only slightly better than a Dallas defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average with Hamlin in the lineup.
The Cowboys' offense has been outstanding this season, averaging 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and they have a big edge over a mediocre Vikings' defense that has surrendered 5.3 yppl to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team.
Minnesota is not as good offensively or defensively as the Cowboys are and my math model projects Dallas with a 6.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl advantage in this game even with the additional home field advantage that home teams in this round of the playoffs have (due to the bye week). Even with the extra 1.5 points of home field advantage my math still picks this game even, so the line value favors the Cowboys. I'll lean with Dallas plus the points and I'll lean over the total.
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DCI
Straight Up: 2106-609 (.776)
ATS: 810-836 (.492)
ATS Vary Units: 2516-2600 (.492)
Over/Under: 663-642 (.508)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1029-994 (.509)
America East Conference
VERMONT 73, Boston U. 65
Atlantic 10 Conference
CHARLOTTE 67, Saint Louis 63
Atlantic Coast Conference
DUKE 85, Wake Forest 71
Atlantic Sun Conference
USC UPSTATE 66, Kennesaw State 61
Big East Conference
MARQUETTE 87, Providence 76
ST. JOHN'S 70, DePaul 56
VILLANOVA 79, Georgetown 70
Big Sky Conference
Montana State 70, SACRAMENTO STATE 64
PORTLAND STATE 82, Northern Arizona 72
Big Ten Conference
Minnesota 75, INDIANA 60
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
SAINT PETER'S 63, Loyola (Md.) 56
Mid-American Conference
BALL STATE 57, Toledo 49
BUFFALO 66, Akron 65
KENT STATE 65, Bowling Green State 56
Missouri Valley Conference
Illinois State 68, DRAKE 63
Patriot League
AMERICAN 62, Colgate 60
ARMY 66, Lehigh 59
Western Athletic Conference
HAWAI'I 74, San Jose State 73
Non-Conference
Connecticut 67, MICHIGAN 66
Straight Up: 2106-609 (.776)
ATS: 810-836 (.492)
ATS Vary Units: 2516-2600 (.492)
Over/Under: 663-642 (.508)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1029-994 (.509)
America East Conference
VERMONT 73, Boston U. 65
Atlantic 10 Conference
CHARLOTTE 67, Saint Louis 63
Atlantic Coast Conference
DUKE 85, Wake Forest 71
Atlantic Sun Conference
USC UPSTATE 66, Kennesaw State 61
Big East Conference
MARQUETTE 87, Providence 76
ST. JOHN'S 70, DePaul 56
VILLANOVA 79, Georgetown 70
Big Sky Conference
Montana State 70, SACRAMENTO STATE 64
PORTLAND STATE 82, Northern Arizona 72
Big Ten Conference
Minnesota 75, INDIANA 60
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
SAINT PETER'S 63, Loyola (Md.) 56
Mid-American Conference
BALL STATE 57, Toledo 49
BUFFALO 66, Akron 65
KENT STATE 65, Bowling Green State 56
Missouri Valley Conference
Illinois State 68, DRAKE 63
Patriot League
AMERICAN 62, Colgate 60
ARMY 66, Lehigh 59
Western Athletic Conference
HAWAI'I 74, San Jose State 73
Non-Conference
Connecticut 67, MICHIGAN 66
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
I am sorry, but I am not putting all of my eggs in this Jets basket just because they beat a Cincinnati team that was absolutely HORRID last week. Yeah, I did back the Bengals big last weekend, and Cincy did their business on the ground, but the Bengals couldn't do much else right, as Carson Palmer, Shayne Graham, and Marvin Lewis looked like they were playing and coaching in a preseason game!
Now 2nd week on the road, and on the west coast no less, and AGAIN with the rookie QB! This is not a good spot for the Jets, but it is a GREAT spot for the Chargers who I feel are more than ready to take that next step in the postseason.
The last 2 years they did not have a bye, yet were able to win and cover their opening playoff games. The bye week, the home field, and an extremely confident sqaud that has won 11 straight football games is ready to advance to the AFC Championship Game in resounding fashion.
"Revis Island" is just that, a one-man island, and Rivers and company will find a way to exploit this "vaunted" defense.
This one is set up for a big Chargers win and cover. If not, I may personally hunt Norv Turner down if he blows this SLAM DUNK.
Lay it!
10 DIMER - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The biggest reason I like the Vikings today is a man named Adrian Peterson. Dallas has benefitted the last 3 weeks from playing divisional rivals who were not able to run the ball. That allowed the Cowboys - who are quite familiar with the NFC East to begin with - to key on pass defense. That just isn't the case today, as Dallas must respect the Vikings running game, which will allow the Silver Fox - Brett Favre to do his thing though the air.
This is a bad spot for Dallas, as they will struggle in the Vikings lair today.
Minnesota went 8-0 straight up at home this season, and they also went 6-2 against the spread in those 8 wins, outscoring the opposition by a double-digits average in those wins.
You just get the feeling that if this game were in Dallas it might be a different story, but ALL of Minnesota's struggles at the end of the year came away from home. The Vikes are right as rain, PURPLE REIGN on their home turf, and they will be once again on Sunday.
Lay the small wood with Minnesota.
10 DIMER - MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES
Both schools sport near identical records, but for my money this is a good spot for Marquette to get their ship righted so to speak.
Marquette has lost 3 of their last 4, but they have played some Big East "heavy hitters" - Villanova twice, West Virginia, and Georgetown in that span!
Providence is solid, but not in the class of the other schools just mentioned.
The Friars are 5-1 against the spread away from Rhode Island this season, a mark that seems a little unreal to me. It is about time that 5-1 mark took a hit.
Marquette has won the last 3 series meetings, and 4 of the last 5 with a 3-2 spread mark. I like the Golden Eagles to up those marks.
Take Marquette minus the points.
50 DIMER - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
I am sorry, but I am not putting all of my eggs in this Jets basket just because they beat a Cincinnati team that was absolutely HORRID last week. Yeah, I did back the Bengals big last weekend, and Cincy did their business on the ground, but the Bengals couldn't do much else right, as Carson Palmer, Shayne Graham, and Marvin Lewis looked like they were playing and coaching in a preseason game!
Now 2nd week on the road, and on the west coast no less, and AGAIN with the rookie QB! This is not a good spot for the Jets, but it is a GREAT spot for the Chargers who I feel are more than ready to take that next step in the postseason.
The last 2 years they did not have a bye, yet were able to win and cover their opening playoff games. The bye week, the home field, and an extremely confident sqaud that has won 11 straight football games is ready to advance to the AFC Championship Game in resounding fashion.
"Revis Island" is just that, a one-man island, and Rivers and company will find a way to exploit this "vaunted" defense.
This one is set up for a big Chargers win and cover. If not, I may personally hunt Norv Turner down if he blows this SLAM DUNK.
Lay it!
10 DIMER - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The biggest reason I like the Vikings today is a man named Adrian Peterson. Dallas has benefitted the last 3 weeks from playing divisional rivals who were not able to run the ball. That allowed the Cowboys - who are quite familiar with the NFC East to begin with - to key on pass defense. That just isn't the case today, as Dallas must respect the Vikings running game, which will allow the Silver Fox - Brett Favre to do his thing though the air.
This is a bad spot for Dallas, as they will struggle in the Vikings lair today.
Minnesota went 8-0 straight up at home this season, and they also went 6-2 against the spread in those 8 wins, outscoring the opposition by a double-digits average in those wins.
You just get the feeling that if this game were in Dallas it might be a different story, but ALL of Minnesota's struggles at the end of the year came away from home. The Vikes are right as rain, PURPLE REIGN on their home turf, and they will be once again on Sunday.
Lay the small wood with Minnesota.
10 DIMER - MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES
Both schools sport near identical records, but for my money this is a good spot for Marquette to get their ship righted so to speak.
Marquette has lost 3 of their last 4, but they have played some Big East "heavy hitters" - Villanova twice, West Virginia, and Georgetown in that span!
Providence is solid, but not in the class of the other schools just mentioned.
The Friars are 5-1 against the spread away from Rhode Island this season, a mark that seems a little unreal to me. It is about time that 5-1 mark took a hit.
Marquette has won the last 3 series meetings, and 4 of the last 5 with a 3-2 spread mark. I like the Golden Eagles to up those marks.
Take Marquette minus the points.
GREAT LAKES SPORTS
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, January 17, 2010
$20.00 Guaranteed: Let's get down & dirty today with a Huge 4* College Basketball Best Bet Winner that will KO your man today as we are coming off an outstanding day yesterday in College Basketball, and do yourself a favor and checkout all of Great Lakes Sports award winning selections and cash in Big today with Great Lakes Sports. 1/17/2010
Great Lakes Sports rates their selections 3*, 4*, & 5* with 5* being our highest rated selection. College Basketball Selection: Illinois State at Drake 8:00PM EST Play on: 4* (823) Illinois State Red Birds The Illinois State Red Birds are a stunning 4-1 ATS when playing in their last five road games, and the Red Birds are a very solid 5-2 ATS when playing in their last seven games overall. The Drake Bulldogs are a terrible 4-10-1 when playing in their last fifteen home games, and the Bulldogs are a dismal 0-4 ATS when playing in their last four Sunday games. We look for the Illinois State Red Birds to grab the road ATS Win & Cover tonight
4* (823) Illinois State Red Birds
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, January 17, 2010
$20.00 Guaranteed: Let's get down & dirty today with a Huge 4* College Basketball Best Bet Winner that will KO your man today as we are coming off an outstanding day yesterday in College Basketball, and do yourself a favor and checkout all of Great Lakes Sports award winning selections and cash in Big today with Great Lakes Sports. 1/17/2010
Great Lakes Sports rates their selections 3*, 4*, & 5* with 5* being our highest rated selection. College Basketball Selection: Illinois State at Drake 8:00PM EST Play on: 4* (823) Illinois State Red Birds The Illinois State Red Birds are a stunning 4-1 ATS when playing in their last five road games, and the Red Birds are a very solid 5-2 ATS when playing in their last seven games overall. The Drake Bulldogs are a terrible 4-10-1 when playing in their last fifteen home games, and the Bulldogs are a dismal 0-4 ATS when playing in their last four Sunday games. We look for the Illinois State Red Birds to grab the road ATS Win & Cover tonight
4* (823) Illinois State Red Birds
