Al DeMarco Sunday's Play 15 Dime - Minnesota Vikings
My Best Bet last Saturday was Dallas and part of the reason why was because I thought the Eagles were simply a bad team, one that the Cowboys had trounced a week earlier and I thought a repeat performance was on the docket. And, as you saw, that's exactly what happened as the Pokes, who won the regular season finale 24-0, scored 27 unanswered points in the second quarter en route to a 34-14 blowout.
How ironic that the Cowboys, coming off a win over the Eagles, now carry a four-game winning streak into a road game with an NFC North squad. Don't tell me that you don't recall the exact same scenario played out earlier this season. Remember? The 'Boys followed their road upset of the Birds in Philly with a trip to Lambeau and got upset themselves the next week by the Packers 17-7.
A couple of things play into my choice of Minnesota in this contest. First, the oddsmakers - and betting public - are giving the Cowboys way too much credit for consecutive routs of the Eagles, who as I've told you repeatedly, simply aren't any good. And let's back-up a moment. Three weeks ago they shutout the Redskins 17-0. Big deal. And the 24-17 win at New Orleans against the then-unbeaten Saints, who were crippled injury-wise both defensively and at running back, should have been expected with the benefit of hindsight.
Listen, I was on New Orleans against Dallas that day and obviously lost. But keep in mind what the Cowboys had done the previous two weeks before meeting the Saints. They were outplayed at home in a 20-17 loss to San Diego in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. And a week earlier they blew a 10-0 early lead in a 31-24 loss to the Giants on the road.
It's great to take a hot team in the playoffs, but you've still got to consider the body of work they compiled in the season's latter stages. And pricing Dallas as such a competitive dog means Minnesota is an undervalued favorite in my book.
You know how I loved backing the Vikings this season, especially at home where they were 8-0 SU, winning on average 33-16, outgaining their opponents 426-273 in total yards. That's a 153-yard differential per game.
Sure, Minny struggled down the stretch, but starting with the second half of the Monday night loss at Chicago through the regular season home finale blowout of the Giants, look at the numbers Brett Favre put up: 46-for-62....601 yards....6 TDs.
Unlike the Eagles, the Vikings have a strong ground game to complement Favre. And their offensive line protection, although spotty at times, is far superior to anything Philadelphia was able to bring to the table this entire season.
These teams shared four common opponents this year: Green Bay, Seattle, Carolina and the Giants. The Vikings went 4-1 both SU and ATS against that quartet, winning on average 31-18. On the other hand, Dallas went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS against them with a three-point average margin of victory (24-21).
This has been a series dominated by the Vikings over the years as they've won and covered five of the last six meetings. And although Tony Romo and the Cowboys have exorcised some late-season and playoff demons in recent weeks, it's still worth noting that Dallas is 2-10 SU (3-9 ATS) in its last 12 postseason highway outings, including 1-6 SU and ATS when coming off a win such as last week's versus Philly. Plus, Wade Phillips is 0-3 SU and ATS when catching points in the playoffs.
This game's price - which has been -3 practically all week - represents value for Minnesota backers like myself because I feel the Vikings should be laying at least 4 1/2 points in this contest, if not 6. But again, the oddsmakers have overreacted - as has the public - to the Cowboys' back-to-back routs of the Eagles. And, in this case, that's okay because that gives me exceptional value backing a team that's 8-0 at home, that's coming off a much-needed bye week that was preceded by a 44-7 rout of the Giants a week earlier.
Oh, and by the way, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Dallas lost both games against the Giants this season, 33-31 at home and 31-24 on the road. And in those two games, Eli Manning passed for 571 yards and four touchdowns. My money is on Favre having a big day against the Dallas "D," unlike Philly's Donovan McNabb, who didn't have the ground support or protection the past two Sundays needed to be successful.
Strategy:
Absolutely you go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point if your price is -3 or -3 1/2. And if you're somehow stuck with -4 - which there is no reason you should be, or 3 1/2 for that matter - go ahead and buy down in that case, too, on Minnesota.
