Stephen Nover
Sunday Winners
40-Dime Tennessee Titans - It's not just situation why I like the Titans so much in this game. It's also the matchup. The styles favor Tennessee. More on that later. Let's first discuss the spot.
Tennessee already faces a desperate spot being 0-2. No team has made the postseason when starting 0-3 since 1998. This also is the Titans' revenge game of the year after the Jets ended their 10-game winning streak last season beating Tennessee in Nashville.
The Jets are off a monster division upset victory against the Patriots. It was the first time they had ever defeated Tom Brady at home. This is a clear letdown spot for New York, which is not used to big wins like this.
The Jets are a blitzing, aggressive defensive club now under Rex Ryan. That style matched up well to the Patriots, who like to spread the field with wideouts and attack the flanks. The Patriots made the mistake of not looking to establish a ground attack to soften the Jets up.
The Titans don't play that well. They're a physical, ground-oriented club. They have an emerging superstar in Chris Johnson, who probably is the most dangerous running back in the NFL in countering blitzes. Johnson can exploit a crack in a blitz and turn it into a touchdown no matter where he is. The Jets will have to tone down their aggressiveness because overpursuit could be deadly for them. I don't think they can do that. So far they know only one speed under Ryan. They still are missing one of their top defenders with Calvin Pace under suspension.
New York is run-oriented, too. The Titans remain one of the toughest foes to run on. They are giving up just 49.5 yards on the ground per game and 1.9 yards per carry.
This means the Jets are going to need a strong game from rookie Mark Sanchez, making his third NFL start. He's going to face the toughest pass rush of his young career after facing a weak Texans defense and a Patriots defense in transition minus their two best players, traded Richard Seymour and injured linebacker Jarod Mayo.
15-Dime Green Bay Packers - This is the week the Packers' offense, which looked so great in August, breaks out. The Packers will be missing left tackle Chad Clifton, their best pass blocker, but they've had a solid week of practice getting their offensive line in order after two bad performances.
The Rams give an effort on defense under new coach Steve Spagnuolo, but there is a huge talent deficiency and a real lack of depth. They get little heat on the quarterback. The Packers have a deep set of receivers. Aaron Rodgers will get more time to throw and he will burn a vulnerable secondary, especially playing on carpet.
How bad are the Rams? If it weren't for the Lions, the Rams would be the butt of all the jokes having lost 12 in a row. They are 7-14 against the spread as underdogs and have lost 21 of the past 23 times against teams with a winning record, although Green Bay is 1-1 this season. Going back even more, the Rams are 12-22 against the sperad in their last 34 games despite inflated point spreads. This spread isn't inflated.
Spagnuolo inherited a team that talent-wise could be even worse than Detroit. St. Louis was shut out by Seattle in Week 1 despite having a 2-0 turnover edge. Last week, the Rams could manage just 243 yards and seven points versus the Redskins. They've had 130 yards of penalties already.
Rams quarterback Marc Bulger has had happy feet for the past couple of years because of constant defensive pressure. He's a shell of his former self and now his accuracy is off because of a broken finger. The Rams were hoping to fix their leaky offensive line, but will be without their hightly-touted rookie tackle, Jason Smith.
10-Dime Cincinnati Bengals - At this point in time, the Bengals are the Steelers and the Steelers are more like the Bengals.
The Bengals are leading the NFL in sacks and running the ball well averaging 48 yards rushing per game more than Pittsburgh. The Steelers have three sacks. The Bengals have three times that amount.
Yes, it has just been two games and the Bengals, particularly Antwan Odom, had a monster sack game last week against the Packers following an injury to the Packers' best blocker, Chad Clifton.
However, these stats do reflect where these teams are at. The Bengals are back to having a balanced attack now that Carson Palmer is healthy and talented wideout Chad Ochocinco has his head and enthusiasm back in the game. Cedric Benson has proven reliable running the ball. Palmer can exploit a Pittsburgh secondary that doesn't have injured safety Troy Polamalu. His replacement, 5-foot-9 Tyrone Carter, has a thigh injury and was limited in practice this week. He may be out, too.
The Bengals have a very solid and underrated defense with seven starters who were drafted in the first two rounds. Their linebacking corps is deep and talented. They have two excellent young cornerbacks and their pass rushers can take advantage of a mediocre Steelers' offensive line that already has allowed Ben Roethlisberger to be sacked six times.
Pittsburgh's inability to pass block isn't anything new. Roethlisberger went into this season having been sacked 139 times during the last three years. The Steelers' ground game, long a stable of the offense, keeps regressing. It ranked 23rd last year and this season Steeler running backs are averaging 70.5 yards per game and only 3.1 yards per carry. Willie Parker has lost his burst making him a below average back. He's averaging a puny 2.4 yards per attempt.
The Bengals are an underappreciated, underpriced home 'dog because they've lost and failed to cover nine of the last 11 times to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are the defending world champions and 12-1 in division the past two years. In this matchup, though, reality catches up to history and perception.
5-Dime Minnesota Vikings - I like the direction the 49ers are going under Mike Singletary. Believe it or not, San Francisco actually has won seven of its last nine games. But this isn't the right spot or matchup for the 49ers.
The 49ers are traveling to the midwest for an early start time off two highly-satisfying NFC West victories against their two top division rivals, Arizona and Seattle. Both were tough matchups with the 49ers using a lot of physical and mental energy. This also is the 49ers' first game on artificial turf and their first dome contest. They have another division game next week making this their only non-division matchup during the first four weeks.
The Vikings, on the other hand, were able to ease into the season drawing cupcakes Cleveland and Detroit. Brett Favre has had enough time now to get in sync with his wideouts. Expect the Vikings to have a dangerous balanced attack running Adrian Peterson and Favre taking advantage of eight-man fronts to connect downfield more than in his first two appearances as a Viking.
The 49ers rely heavily on Frank Gore. He missed practice all week, though, because of an ankle injury. The Vikings have led the league in rush defense during the past three seasons. They rank No. 5 in overall defense this season.
I can't see Gore doing much against the Vikings' massive run-stuffing defensive line. The 49ers don't have nearly an explosive enough passing offense to compensate, especially on the road.