jeff scott sports
The NFL was a bit better than CFB for me as I went 3-2 including winning my NFL GOM (Oakland, also a PA Play), my Total of the week (Buffalo Over) and my other PA Play (Minnesota). Power Angle Plays are now 3-0 on the year in the NFL, while I am a combined 3-0 in my 5 Unit Plays in CFB and NFL. Im looking to get to plus units in the NFL this week.
5 UNIT PLAY (NFL GOM, Also It Is A Power Angle Play)
Carolina +9 over DALLAS: Yes this is Dallas' first home MNF game in their new stadium, but they may not be up for this one after the emotional balle with the G-Men last week. Dallas may have added by subtracting when they got rid of TO, but at last check he wasn't on the defensive side and that's where their problems have been early in the year. Dallas is allowing 443 ypg and 27 ppg through thier first 2 games. That's very un Dallas like. Carolina really struggled on offense in their opening week loss to the Eagles, but they were never really able to get it going after a ton of TO's. Last week vs a tough Atlanta defense they were even in the TO battle and as a result were able to put up 440 yards of offense, including 296 through the air. There is no question that Dallas has the better overall talent, but they are still an unfocused group that will allow a hungry carolina team to keep this one close, if not win outright. Boy's by no more than 3. Power Angles For This Play-- Panthers are 17-1 ATS as non-div dogs vs opp that allowed 28 or more points last week & 19-4 ATS as road dogs vs less than .777 opp who scored 14 or more last game, while the Boys are 4-17-1 ATS at home off a Loss.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -8.5 over Kansas City: it looks as if the Eagles will be start Kevin Kolb again and that is just fine with me. Depite the mistakes he mad last week he still had nearly 400 yards passing vs a new Orleans defense that looked very impressive in the preseason. The Eagles acctually outgained the Saints in the loss. I see Philly limiting the mistakes in this one and after last weeks debacle they will redeem themselves in front of the home crowd with at least a 14 pt win. The KC offense has been stuck in the mud this year and will not be able to keep up with an angry and embarrassed bunch of Eagles here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any team that allowed 28 or more points last week if they have a Bye week on deck. System is 37-13-1 S/95.
Oakland/ Denver under 36.5: (Added) Both teams have been playing some good defense to begin the year as the Raiders have allowed just 17 ppg so far, while Denver has allowed just 6.5 ppg. another good stat to look at is Yards Per Point. A very good defensive YPP would 20.0 or higher, well thye Raides YPP is 21.4, while Denver's is 39.0. Not to shabby. Both offenses have struggled to scor many points and vs these defense's I just don't see many being scored here. The Over is 24-14 when denver is off a win of 10 or more, while the Over is 7-1 if the Raiders are off a win of 3 or less. I see a game around 30 points here.
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Giants/ Tampa Bay Over 44: Tampa Bay may be 0-2 on the yera but not due to lack of offense as they have put up 402 ypg and 20.5 ppg so far. The Giant offense has been very good in the early going and should get plenty of points vs the 30th ranked defense. I see this one in the 50's.
Teaser Of The Week (0-1) (Added)
3 Team 6 Point--- Philly -3, San Diego PK, Indy/ Arizona Over 42
2 UNIT PLAY
BALTIMORE -13.5 over Cleveland
Indy/ Arizona Over 48 (Added)
1 UNIT PLAY
NEW ENGLAND -4 over Atlanta
DETROIT +6.5 over Washington (Added)
I WILL BE BACK ON SATURDAY WITH THE REST OF THIS WEEKS PLAYS.
BEST OF LUCK THIS WEEK EVERYONE
The NFL was a bit better than CFB for me as I went 3-2 including winning my NFL GOM (Oakland, also a PA Play), my Total of the week (Buffalo Over) and my other PA Play (Minnesota). Power Angle Plays are now 3-0 on the year in the NFL, while I am a combined 3-0 in my 5 Unit Plays in CFB and NFL. Im looking to get to plus units in the NFL this week.
5 UNIT PLAY (NFL GOM, Also It Is A Power Angle Play)
Carolina +9 over DALLAS: Yes this is Dallas' first home MNF game in their new stadium, but they may not be up for this one after the emotional balle with the G-Men last week. Dallas may have added by subtracting when they got rid of TO, but at last check he wasn't on the defensive side and that's where their problems have been early in the year. Dallas is allowing 443 ypg and 27 ppg through thier first 2 games. That's very un Dallas like. Carolina really struggled on offense in their opening week loss to the Eagles, but they were never really able to get it going after a ton of TO's. Last week vs a tough Atlanta defense they were even in the TO battle and as a result were able to put up 440 yards of offense, including 296 through the air. There is no question that Dallas has the better overall talent, but they are still an unfocused group that will allow a hungry carolina team to keep this one close, if not win outright. Boy's by no more than 3. Power Angles For This Play-- Panthers are 17-1 ATS as non-div dogs vs opp that allowed 28 or more points last week & 19-4 ATS as road dogs vs less than .777 opp who scored 14 or more last game, while the Boys are 4-17-1 ATS at home off a Loss.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -8.5 over Kansas City: it looks as if the Eagles will be start Kevin Kolb again and that is just fine with me. Depite the mistakes he mad last week he still had nearly 400 yards passing vs a new Orleans defense that looked very impressive in the preseason. The Eagles acctually outgained the Saints in the loss. I see Philly limiting the mistakes in this one and after last weeks debacle they will redeem themselves in front of the home crowd with at least a 14 pt win. The KC offense has been stuck in the mud this year and will not be able to keep up with an angry and embarrassed bunch of Eagles here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any team that allowed 28 or more points last week if they have a Bye week on deck. System is 37-13-1 S/95.
Oakland/ Denver under 36.5: (Added) Both teams have been playing some good defense to begin the year as the Raiders have allowed just 17 ppg so far, while Denver has allowed just 6.5 ppg. another good stat to look at is Yards Per Point. A very good defensive YPP would 20.0 or higher, well thye Raides YPP is 21.4, while Denver's is 39.0. Not to shabby. Both offenses have struggled to scor many points and vs these defense's I just don't see many being scored here. The Over is 24-14 when denver is off a win of 10 or more, while the Over is 7-1 if the Raiders are off a win of 3 or less. I see a game around 30 points here.
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Giants/ Tampa Bay Over 44: Tampa Bay may be 0-2 on the yera but not due to lack of offense as they have put up 402 ypg and 20.5 ppg so far. The Giant offense has been very good in the early going and should get plenty of points vs the 30th ranked defense. I see this one in the 50's.
Teaser Of The Week (0-1) (Added)
3 Team 6 Point--- Philly -3, San Diego PK, Indy/ Arizona Over 42
2 UNIT PLAY
BALTIMORE -13.5 over Cleveland
Indy/ Arizona Over 48 (Added)
1 UNIT PLAY
NEW ENGLAND -4 over Atlanta
DETROIT +6.5 over Washington (Added)
I WILL BE BACK ON SATURDAY WITH THE REST OF THIS WEEKS PLAYS.
BEST OF LUCK THIS WEEK EVERYONE
Sunday NFL System Club Play- GC-
On Sunday the NFL System club play is on the St. Louis Rams game 414 at 1:00 eastern. The Rams are an ugly play here today. However they qualify in a nice 38-14 system that plays on underdogs off an ats win that score 7 or less. The Rams played much better in a close loss last week at Washington. The problem is an offense that has just 7 points in 2 weeks, Today the Rams play their first home game against a Packers team that comes in off a bad home favored loss to the Bengals. The Packers are on the road for the first time and there playing on the turf in this one. The Packers are just 1-9 ats off a double digit ats loss if they are taking on a non division team. The Rams are 10-2 ats at home after allowing 10 or less points in their last game. The line in this one at the time of this writing has Green Bay as a 6.5 point favorite. IF this line officially gets to 7 the Rams would qualify in a secondary system that is 31-7 ats I would then upgrade this play. Look for the Rams to give Green Bay a good game here and maybe pull the upset. On Sundays late phone card I have a 15-1 system that dates to 1977. Its the NFL Game of the month rated at 5 units. I also have another system that has cashed at 98% since 1990 and a week 3 totals system that has cashed 18 of 20 times over the past 29 years, These plays are part of a solid overall card. Last week we were in a NY. State of mind as we cashed both 5 unit plays on the Jets and Giants. This Sunday we are poised to do major damage and we cashed the big 5 unit PAC 10 bomb with Stanford on Saturday. For the system club play take the Rams plus the points. bol GC-
On Sunday the NFL System club play is on the St. Louis Rams game 414 at 1:00 eastern. The Rams are an ugly play here today. However they qualify in a nice 38-14 system that plays on underdogs off an ats win that score 7 or less. The Rams played much better in a close loss last week at Washington. The problem is an offense that has just 7 points in 2 weeks, Today the Rams play their first home game against a Packers team that comes in off a bad home favored loss to the Bengals. The Packers are on the road for the first time and there playing on the turf in this one. The Packers are just 1-9 ats off a double digit ats loss if they are taking on a non division team. The Rams are 10-2 ats at home after allowing 10 or less points in their last game. The line in this one at the time of this writing has Green Bay as a 6.5 point favorite. IF this line officially gets to 7 the Rams would qualify in a secondary system that is 31-7 ats I would then upgrade this play. Look for the Rams to give Green Bay a good game here and maybe pull the upset. On Sundays late phone card I have a 15-1 system that dates to 1977. Its the NFL Game of the month rated at 5 units. I also have another system that has cashed at 98% since 1990 and a week 3 totals system that has cashed 18 of 20 times over the past 29 years, These plays are part of a solid overall card. Last week we were in a NY. State of mind as we cashed both 5 unit plays on the Jets and Giants. This Sunday we are poised to do major damage and we cashed the big 5 unit PAC 10 bomb with Stanford on Saturday. For the system club play take the Rams plus the points. bol GC-
Sixth Sense
Nice bounce back last week going 5-2 +8.40%. Hopefully we can keep it going this week.
BEST BETS
YTD 6-6 –1.80%
3% TENNESSEE +2.5
3% JACKSONVILLE +3.5
3% GREEN BAY –6.5
3% CHICAGO –2.5 No higher than –2.5
3% BUFFALO +6
3% CINCINNATI +4
3% DENVER –1.5
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.4
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
NY JETS –2.5 Tennessee 37
TENNESSEE 20 NY JETS 16
HOUSTON –3.5 Jacksonville 47
JACKSONVILLE 27 HOUSTON 24
PHILADELPHIA –8 Kansas City 39.5
PHILADELPHIA 21 KANSAS CITY 14
BALTIMORE –13.5 Cleveland 38.5
BALTIMORE 27 CLEVELAND 7
NY Giants –6.5 TAMPA BAY 45.5
NY GIANTS 27 TAMPA BAY 24
Washington –6.5 DETROIT 38.5
WASHINGTON 17 DETROIT 14
Green Bay –6.5 ST LOUIS 41
GREEN BAY 27 ST LOUIS 13
MINNESOTA –7 San Francisco 39
MINNESOTA 21 SAN FRANCISCO 17
NEW ENGLAND –4.5 Atlanta 47
NEW ENGLAND 21 ATLANTA 20
Chicago –2.5 SEATTLE 37
CHICAGO 24 SEATTLE 16
New Orleans –6 BUFFALO 52.5
BUFFALO 27 NEW ORLEANS 26
SAN DIEGO –6 Miami 44
SAN DIEGO 26 MIAMI 21
Pittsburgh –4 CINCINNATI 37
CINCINNATI 21 PITTSBURGH 13
Denver –1.5 OAKLAND 36.5
DENVER 20 OAKLAND 6
ARIZONA –2.5 Indianapolis 48
ARIZONA 24 INDIANAPOLIS 23
DALLAS –8.5 Carolina 47.5
DALLAS 27 CAROLINA 24
Nice bounce back last week going 5-2 +8.40%. Hopefully we can keep it going this week.
BEST BETS
YTD 6-6 –1.80%
3% TENNESSEE +2.5
3% JACKSONVILLE +3.5
3% GREEN BAY –6.5
3% CHICAGO –2.5 No higher than –2.5
3% BUFFALO +6
3% CINCINNATI +4
3% DENVER –1.5
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.4
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
NY JETS –2.5 Tennessee 37
TENNESSEE 20 NY JETS 16
HOUSTON –3.5 Jacksonville 47
JACKSONVILLE 27 HOUSTON 24
PHILADELPHIA –8 Kansas City 39.5
PHILADELPHIA 21 KANSAS CITY 14
BALTIMORE –13.5 Cleveland 38.5
BALTIMORE 27 CLEVELAND 7
NY Giants –6.5 TAMPA BAY 45.5
NY GIANTS 27 TAMPA BAY 24
Washington –6.5 DETROIT 38.5
WASHINGTON 17 DETROIT 14
Green Bay –6.5 ST LOUIS 41
GREEN BAY 27 ST LOUIS 13
MINNESOTA –7 San Francisco 39
MINNESOTA 21 SAN FRANCISCO 17
NEW ENGLAND –4.5 Atlanta 47
NEW ENGLAND 21 ATLANTA 20
Chicago –2.5 SEATTLE 37
CHICAGO 24 SEATTLE 16
New Orleans –6 BUFFALO 52.5
BUFFALO 27 NEW ORLEANS 26
SAN DIEGO –6 Miami 44
SAN DIEGO 26 MIAMI 21
Pittsburgh –4 CINCINNATI 37
CINCINNATI 21 PITTSBURGH 13
Denver –1.5 OAKLAND 36.5
DENVER 20 OAKLAND 6
ARIZONA –2.5 Indianapolis 48
ARIZONA 24 INDIANAPOLIS 23
DALLAS –8.5 Carolina 47.5
DALLAS 27 CAROLINA 24
Doug Williams
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Cleveland is garbage, but there are a few things to be said about giving up a dozen points in the NFL. Baltimore isn't about heaping on the points, and Cleveland is bad, just not hopelessly terrible.
Cleveland Covers +13.5
San Fran @ Minnesota
San Fran has some serious moxy these days, I dont expect it to last, but I expect it to keep them within a touchdown with a shaky, if not consistent, Viking Pass O.
San Fran Covers +6.5
Denver @ Oakland
After what was surely the worst QB performancing since Rex Grossman's dismal starts with the Bear, Jamarcus Russell somehow managed to actually win a football game. But don't get confused, it wasn't so much him, but a decent run game and solid D.
Oakland covers +1.5
Indy @ Arizona
The Colts have been shaky, but they always seem to be in a position to win at the end of every game, look for the shakyness to continue, but for Indy to cover in a shootout.
Indianapolis Colts Cover +2.5
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Cleveland is garbage, but there are a few things to be said about giving up a dozen points in the NFL. Baltimore isn't about heaping on the points, and Cleveland is bad, just not hopelessly terrible.
Cleveland Covers +13.5
San Fran @ Minnesota
San Fran has some serious moxy these days, I dont expect it to last, but I expect it to keep them within a touchdown with a shaky, if not consistent, Viking Pass O.
San Fran Covers +6.5
Denver @ Oakland
After what was surely the worst QB performancing since Rex Grossman's dismal starts with the Bear, Jamarcus Russell somehow managed to actually win a football game. But don't get confused, it wasn't so much him, but a decent run game and solid D.
Oakland covers +1.5
Indy @ Arizona
The Colts have been shaky, but they always seem to be in a position to win at the end of every game, look for the shakyness to continue, but for Indy to cover in a shootout.
Indianapolis Colts Cover +2.5
JIMMY-THE-GENT (10-10) - 10.20 UNITS
10 * LOCK OF THE MONTH !!
GREEN BAY / STL RAMS OVER 41 !!
TRUST ME ON THIS ONE, I KNOW ITS THE RAMS , BUT THIS SETS UP THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR STL TOO !
the rams showed signs vs the redskins last week, getting in the redzone but not finishing up. how does green bay feel, after looking pretty in week one and then getting beat by the bengals , now the packers go on the road for first time this year, while the rams are having the home opener after 2 road losses. new coach spagnulo has this team ready and moving in the right direction. STL WINS OUTRIGHT ! 33-24
GREEN BAY :
6-0 OVER L3Y ON TURF
12-5 OVER L3Y TOT BETWEEEN 35.5 - 42
TAKE STL / GB OVER 41 ......10*
TAKE STL + 7 ............5*
10 * LOCK OF THE MONTH !!
GREEN BAY / STL RAMS OVER 41 !!
TRUST ME ON THIS ONE, I KNOW ITS THE RAMS , BUT THIS SETS UP THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR STL TOO !
the rams showed signs vs the redskins last week, getting in the redzone but not finishing up. how does green bay feel, after looking pretty in week one and then getting beat by the bengals , now the packers go on the road for first time this year, while the rams are having the home opener after 2 road losses. new coach spagnulo has this team ready and moving in the right direction. STL WINS OUTRIGHT ! 33-24
GREEN BAY :
6-0 OVER L3Y ON TURF
12-5 OVER L3Y TOT BETWEEEN 35.5 - 42
TAKE STL / GB OVER 41 ......10*
TAKE STL + 7 ............5*
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
NFL
Tennessee (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (2-0 SU and ATS)
The upstart Jets, with a stout defense and a rookie quarterback, aim to keep their strong start going in a meeting at the Meadowlands with the winless Titans, who are practically in a must-win situation three weeks into the season.
New York held New England without a touchdown en route to a 16-9 upset Sunday as a 3½-point home underdog, and the Jets’ defense has yet to give up a TD through the first two games. New York trailed 9-3 at halftime but held the Patriots scoreless the rest of the way, and QB Mark Sanchez (14 of 22, 163 yards, 1 TD) threw for 148 of his yards in the second half and didn’t commit any turnovers.
Tennessee, coming off an overtime loss at Pittsburgh in Week 1, got upended at home Sunday in a 34-31 defeat to Houston as a seven-point favorite, blowing a 21-7 second-quarter lead. RB Chris Johnson went off for 197 yards and two TDs – including a 61-yarder – on just 16 carries, but QB Kerry Collins (21 of 33, 216 yards, 2 TDs) had an INT and a lost fumble, with the latter allowing Houston (which had no turnovers) to run out the clock.
The Jets were one of just three teams to beat the Titans in the regular season last year, scoring a stunning 34-13 road upset getting 5½ points in November, Tennessee’s first loss after a 9-0 start. In fact, the Jets are 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) in the last five meetings in this rivalry, all as an underdog, and the road team is on a 5-1 ATS roll.
Despite back-to-back SU and ATS wins to open the year, the Jets are still 2-5 ATS in their last seven dating to the end of 2008 and they’ve failed to cash in five straight as a chalk. However, New York is on ATS upswings of 5-1 after a spread-cover and 6-2 following a SU win. The Titans, despite their sluggish start, are on ATS rolls of 13-6 overall, 9-1 in September, 17-5 catching points, 18-7 on the highway, 7-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a SU home loss.
The under for the Jets is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-2 in September, 11-4 after an ATS win and 10-4-1 after a SU victory. Likewise, the under for Tennessee is on surges of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 with the Titans a pup, 7-2 against winning teams and 7-3 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Jacksonville (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Houston (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Texans look to build on their momentum following an upset win as they return to Reliant Stadium to take on the Jaguars.
Houston knocked off Tennessee 34-31 as a 5½-point ‘dog Sunday, getting a huge effort from QB Matt Schaub, who finished 25 of 39 for 357 yards and four TDs, with no INTs. WR Andre Johnson (10 catches, 149 yards, 2 TDs) also had a big day, and the Texans won the turnover battle 2-0, forcing a late Kerry Collins fumble to put the game away.
Houston has covered in the last three meetings in this AFC South rivalry, including a 30-17 home win last December as a three-point chalk, though the two squads have alternated SU wins over the last five contests. The Texans are 11-3 ATS against Jacksonville since joining the league (5-1 ATS last six), and they’ve covered the number in six of the last seven clashes in Houston.
The Texans are on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-0 inside the division and 5-2 against AFC opponents. On the flip side, the Jaguars are on spread-covering skids of 2-7 overall, 2-15 on grass, 1-6 against the AFC, 1-4 in division play and 2-5 getting points.
The over for Houston is on rolls of 19-7 in the division and 7-1 in September, but otherwise the team is on “under” tears of 6-2 overall, 6-0 after a spread-cover and 5-1 against the AFC. The under for Jacksonville is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 7-1 with the Jags a pup and 6-1-1 in conference action. Finally, three of the last four games in this rivalry have gone high, with last December’s contest falling just short of the posted price of 48½.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Kansas City (0-2 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Eagles, minus Donovan McNabb for the second game in a row, remain at home for a second straight week when they meet the Chiefs at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia, with backup Kevin Kolb at QB, hung with New Orleans in the first half Sunday, but couldn’t keep pace with the Saints’ high-octane offense in the second half of a 48-22 beatdown as a 2½-point home pup. With McNair nursing a cracked rib, Kolb aired out the ball 51 times, completing 31 for 351 yards and two TDs, but he threw three INTs and lost one of his two fumbles in committing all four of the Eagles’ turnovers.
McNabb (cracked rib) didn’t practice this week and almost certainly won’t play, so Kolb will start, and Michael Vick will likely be integrated into the offense as he returns to the NFL following a well-documented two-year hiatus.
Kansas City fell to Oakland 13-10 as a one-point home favorite Sunday, getting a field goal early in the first quarter and not scoring again until posting a TD with just 1:31 left in the game. QB Matt Cassel (24 of 39, 241 yards, 1 TD) made his first start for the Chiefs coming off a knee injury, and he threw a pair of INTs, while K.C. failed to force any turnovers and lost the game despite outgaining Oakland 409-166.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Philly going 2-0 SU and ATS on the road, including a 37-31 win getting 1½ points in October 2005.
The Eagles are on ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 6-1 after a double-digit home loss, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4 following a non-cover. The Chiefs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road starts, but they are otherwise in ATS ruts of 0-4 overall, 1-4 after a pointspread loss and 1-4 in September, and they are a paltry 2-16 SU (8-10 ATS) in their last 18 games, dating to the 2008 season opener.
The over for Philadelphia is on stretches of 4-0-1 at home, 4-1 in September, 4-0 after a non-cover and 6-2 following a double-digit home loss. The under for Kansas City is on upticks of 4-1 on the road and 13-4 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Cleveland (0-2 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Ravens, off to a strong start after reaching the AFC title game last season, face the division rival Browns at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore held off San Diego 31-26 Sunday as a one-point road pup, moving to 16-5 ATS (15-6 SU) dating to the beginning of the 2008 season. QB Joe Flacco (17 of 26, 190 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady, and the Ravens won despite being outgained 474-311, giving up 421 passing yards to Philip Rivers but also picking him off twice.
Cleveland got drubbed at Denver 26-7 as a 3½-point ‘dog last Sunday, extending its losing streak to eight games (0-7-1 ATS). QB Brady Quinn was 18 of 31 for a pedestrian 161 yards, with no TDs, one INT and a lost fumble, and the Browns mustered just 200 total yards while giving up 449 and losing the turnover battle, 3-1. Quinn has already been sacked nine times.
Baltimore won and covered in both meetings with Cleveland last year, ending a 5-0 ATS roll by the Browns in this rivalry. The Ravens coasted 28-10 as a one-point home chalk last September. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests, and the pup is 10-4 ATS lifetime in this rivalry.
The Ravens are on a boatload of spread-covering streaks, including 17-5 overall, 5-0 in September, 8-1 giving points, 5-1 at home, 38-15-1 as a home chalk (6-1 ATS last seven) and 10-2 against the AFC. The Browns, meanwhile, are mired in ATS funks of 0-4 on the road, 0-5 after a non-cover, 0-6 after a SU loss, 1-4 in the AFC North and 4-9 as a division road ‘dog.
Baltimore is on “over” surges of 4-0 in September, 7-1 against losing teams, 5-1 in the AFC North and 16-7 against AFC opponents, and in this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 4-0-1 overall and 5-1 in Baltimore. However, the under for Cleveland is on runs of 5-2-1 overall, 5-1 against the AFC and 8-3-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
N.Y. Giants (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Giants, looking very playoff worthy after two weeks, travel to Raymond James Stadium for a date with the Buccaneers, who are still seeking their first win under new coach Raheem Morris.
New York went into Dallas as a three-point ‘dog and came away with a 33-31 outright win Sunday night, improving to 10-4 ATS in its last 14 outings. QB Eli Manning had a clean game, completing 25 of 38 passes for 330 yards and two TDs, and he led a 56-yard drive that ended with the game-winning field goal as time expired. The Giants allowed a whopping 251 rushing yards, but they rattled Tony Romo (13 of 29, 127 yards, 1 TD) into throwing three INTs en route to winning the turnover battle, 4-0.
Tampa Bay lost at Buffalo 33-20 as a four-point pup, falling behind 17-0 in the first quarter and failing to fully recover in losing its sixth straight game (1-5 ATS). The Bucs had little to their running game (57 yards), and Byron Leftwich (26 of 50, 296 yards, 3 TDs) threw a pair of INTs, including one returned 76 yards for a first-quarter Bills TD. Tampa also yielded 218 rushing yards, mostly to Fred Jackson (28 carries, 163 yards).
The last time these teams met was also in Tampa, in the wild-card round for the 2007 playoffs, with New York winning 24-14 as a three-point underdog to begin its run to the Super Bowl title. The Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four contests (3-1 SU).
The Giants boast positive pointspread streaks of 21-7 overall, a sterling 22-6 on the highway, 21-7 after a SU win, 20-7 following a spread-cover and 6-1 as a road chalk, and they are also on a 10-3 ATS tear as a non-division road favorite. The Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 overall, 0-4 at Raymond James and 1-4 as a home ‘dog.
The over for New York is on runs of 4-0 in September and 4-1 against losing teams, and the over for Tampa Bay is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in September, 6-1 against winning teams and 5-1 with the Bucs a home pup. In this rivalry, though, the total has stayed low in six straight meetings overall and four in a row in Tampa.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Washington (1-1 SU and ATS) at Detroit (0-2 SU and ATS)
The hapless Lions, who haven’t won a game since the second-to-last week of the 2007 season, look to halt their freefall when they host the Redskins at Ford Field.
Detroit got out to a 10-0 lead against Minnesota on Sunday, then surrendered the next 27 points in a 27-13 setback as a 10-point home underdog, losing its 19th consecutive game (7-12 ATS). Rookie QB and No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford (18 of 30, 152 yards, 1 TD) threw his fourth and fifth INTs of the young season as the Lions lost the turnover battle 3-1 in a game in which both teams finished with 265 total yards.
Washington pulled out a sleeper against St. Louis 9-7 last Sunday, falling far short of covering the 10-point spread at home. QB Jason Campbell (23 of 35, 242 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was serviceable, but the Redskins failed to generate a TD against a team that went 2-14 last year and gave up 28 points at Seattle in the season opener. Washington outgained the Rams 362-245 and won on a field goal midway through the third quarter, with neither team scoring the rest of the way.
The Redskins are on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 25-17 road win last year, narrowly covering as a seven-point chalk. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the favorite is on a 5-2 ATS surge, but the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The Lions are 1-25 SU (8-18 ATS) in their last 26 starts, and they are on further ATS purges of 1-9 at Ford Field, 0-5 in September and 6-14 against the AFC, though they carry positive ATS streaks of 5-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a double-digit home loss. The Redskins have covered four of their last five September games, but they are otherwise on ATS slides of 2-6-2 overall, 1-5-1 laying points, 3-13-3 against losing teams and 3-9-2 in non-division road games.
The over for Detroit is on tears of 19-7-1 overall, 9-3-1 with the Lions a pup and 8-3 in September. Conversely, the under for Washington is on runs of 11-2-1 overall, 7-0-1 with the ‘Skins a chalk, 5-1-1 against losing teams and 12-5-1 in September. Finally, the under is 5-0-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Green Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (0-2, 1-1 ATS)
The Packers, upset victims in Week 2, aim to get back on track with a trip to the Edward Jones Done to face the struggling Rams in their home opener.
Green Bay stumbled to Cincinnati 31-24 as a heavy nine-point home favorite Sunday, scoring a meager three points in the second half – on a field goal in the final minute. QB Aaron Rodgers (21 of 39, 261 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) now has no turnovers through two games, and the Pack got two INTs, returning one to the end zone for its first score of the game. But Green Bay’s defense couldn’t slow RB Cedric Benson (29 carries, 141 yards), losing the time-of-possession battle by 7½ minutes.
St. Louis was dealt its 12th consecutive loss (5-7 ATS), falling just short to Washington 9-7 but covering as a healthy 10-point road underdog. QB Marc Bulger (15 of 28, 125 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t do much, but RB Steven Jackson (17 carries, 104 yards, 6.1 ypc) had a solid day. The Rams finished with just 245 total yards, while allowing 362 and finishing nearly 10 minutes back in time of possession.
These squads have alternated SU and ATS wins in their last four meetings, with Green Bay most recently claiming a 33-14 road win as a seven-point chalk in December 2007. In five clashes this decade, the favorite has cashed every time.
The Packers are on a 2-6 ATS skid overall and are on further pointspread dips of 0-4 against losing teams and 1-5 as a favorite, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 14-5-1 on the highway, 8-3 in September and 7-3 as a road chalk. The Rams sport nothing but negative ATS trends, including 6-15 at home, 3-9 as a home ‘dog, 5-11 against NFC opponents and 6-20-1 in September.
Green Bay is on “over” sprees of 19-7-1 overall, 9-3-1 on the highway, 14-4 giving points and 7-2 in September, and the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry. That said, the under for St. Louis is on rolls of 6-1-1 overall (2-0 this season), 4-0-1 at home, 5-1-1 against the NFC and 10-3 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
San Francisco (2-0 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (2-0 SU and ATS)
A battle of unbeatens takes place at the Metrodome, with Brett Favre making his home debut as the Vikings square off with the 49ers.
Minnesota fell behind Detroit 10-0 Sunday, then scored the next 27 points in a 27-13 victory, covering as a 10-point road chalk. Favre was an extremely efficient 23 of 27 for 155 yards and two TDs with no INTs, and RB Adrian Peterson (15 carries, 92 yards, 1 TD) had another solid day. The Vikes won the turnover battle 3-1, picking of rookie QB Matthew Stafford twice in an otherwise even game, as both teams finished with 265 total yards.
San Francisco dispatched Seattle 23-10 Sunday as a one-point home favorite, holding the Seahawks scoreless in the second half. QB Shaun Hill again wasn’t flashy (19 of 26, 144 yards, 0 TDs), but he had no turnovers and got all the help he needed from RB Frank Gore, who tore it up for 207 yards on just 16 carries, including TD runs of 80 and 79 yards.
Minnesota is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-7 road victory giving eight points in December 2007, and the home team has cashed in five of the last six clashes.
The Vikings are on an 8-3 ATS run as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points, but they are on pointspread dives of 1-4 at the dome, 3-6 as a home favorite, 3-8 against the NFC, 2-5 against winning teams, 3-10 after a SU win and 2-6 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the 49ers are on ATS rolls of 5-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 4-1 as a road pup and 4-1 in September. San Fran is also 5-1 ATS as a ‘dog under coach Mike Singletary.
The under for Minnesota is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-0 against NFC foes, 4-1 with the Vikes favored and 35-16-1 following an ATS win. Similarly, the under for San Francisco is on stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-0 with the ‘Niners a ‘dog, 4-0 on the road and 5-1-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
Atlanta (2-0 SU and ATS) at New England (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
The Falcons take their unbeaten mark into a non-conference contest at Gillette Stadium against the Patriots, who are still trying to get their offense on track.
Atlanta held off Carolina 28-20 last week laying six points at home, paced by another efficient outing from QB Matt Ryan, who went 21 of 27 for 220 yards with three TDs and one INT. RB Michael Turner (28 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) also had a strong day, and the Falcons nabbed the win despite allowing 440 total yards, while gaining 371.
New England tumbled to the Jets 16-9 Sunday as a 3½-point road favorite, taking a 9-3 halftime lead – all on field goals – and failing to score the rest of the way. QB Tom Brady was a mediocre 23 of 47 for 216 yards, with no TDs and one INT, and though he didn’t get sacked, he was hurried and hit throughout the game. The Pats finished with 299 total yards, while allowing 254.
These clubs have met just twice this decade in regular-season action, with Atlanta at home both times and New England going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 31-28 win as a three-point pup in October 2005.
The Falcons have cashed in five of their last seven September starts, and they are on an 11-4 ATS surge as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Patriots are on a handful of ATS slides, including 1-4 in September and 3-11 at home (all as a chalk), but they also sport positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 after a non-cover and 19-7-1 after a SU loss.
The under for Atlanta is on streaks of 37-15-1 on the highway and 13-6 with the Falcons a road pup, while the over for New England is on tears of 7-2 overall, 4-0 at home and 7-2 when favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Chicago (1-1 SU and ATS) at Seattle (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Bears look to build off their first win of the Jay Cutler era when they travel to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Chicago pulled off a 17-14 upset of Pittsburgh on Sunday as a three-point home ‘dog, outscoring the Steelers 10-0 in the fourth quarter, including a 44-yard Robbie Gould field goal in the waning seconds. Cutler, who fired four INTs a week earlier in his Bears debut at Green Bay, was much more composed, going 27 of 38 for 236 yards with two TDs and no turnovers. Chicago also didn’t commit a fumble while the defense forced an INT and a fumble.
Seattle fell to San Francisco 23-10 as a one-point underdog, failing to put up any points in the second half after losing QB Matt Hasselbeck (broken rib) late in the second quarter. Seneca Wallace (15 of 23, 127 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was fair filling in, but the Seahawks alllowed 49ers RB Frank Gore to rush for 207 yards on just 16 carries, including TD runs of 80 and 79 yards. Seattle gave up 256 rushing yards, while gaining just 66, leading to a nine-minute deficit in time of possession.
Coach Jim Mora said it’s “extremely unlikely” Hasselbeck will play this week. Last year, Wallace went 3-5 SU but 6-2 ATS in the eight games he started in place of the injury-prone Hasselbeck.
Seattle has covered the last two meetings in this rivalry – a 27-24 overtime road loss as a 9½-point ‘dog in the playoffs following the 2006 regular season, and a 30-23 home win giving six points in November 2007. Prior to that, Chicago had covered four in a row (2-2 SU).
Despite last week’s effort, the Bears are on a bundle of ATS declines, including 3-7-1 overall, 3-7-1 in September, 7-19-2 after a SU win, 0-4-1 after a spread-cover and 1-5 on the road. The Seahawks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight NFC contests, but they are on pointspread upturns of 8-2-1 after a pointspread loss, 10-4-1 after a SU loss, 10-4-1 at Qwest Field and 18-8 as a home favorite (7-1 last eight).
The under for Chicago is on runs of 7-3 overall and 8-2 in roadies, and the under for Seattle is on rolls of 8-2-1 overall, 6-1-1 against the NFC and 5-1 at home. However, the over is 28-13-1 in the Bears’ last 42 games against NFC foes, and the total has gone high in the last three clashes in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
New Orleans (2-0 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The Saints take their high-octane offense to upstate New York for a meeting with the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
New Orleans hammered Philadelphia 48-22 last week as a 2½-point road favorite, outscoring the Eagles 31-9 in the second half. QB Drew Brees had another big day, going 25 of 34 for 311 yards and three TDs, with one INT. The Saints gave up 384 passing yards and were outgained for the game 463-421, but they won the turnover battle 4-1, picking off backup Kevin Kolb three times. Darren Sharper returned the last INT 97 yards for a fourth-quarter TD.
Buffalo, which nearly upset New England on the road in Week 1, finished the job last Sunday against Tampa Bay, rolling 33-20 as a 4½-point home favorite. RB Fred Jackson (28 carries, 163 yards) had a solid game, and QB Trent Edwards (21 of 30, 230 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady enough. The Bills also picked off Byron Leftwich twice, with Donte Whitner taking the first one 76 yards for a first-quarter score.
These squads have met twice this decade in the regular season, with New Orleans going 2-0 SU and ATS, most recently posting a 19-7 home win giving 1½ points in October 2005.
The Saints are on a 6-13-1 ATS slide following a SU win, but they are otherwise on spread-covering runs of 7-1-1 overall, 7-0 laying points, 4-0 in September, 4-0-1 on the highway and 6-1 as a road chalk. The Bills carry positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in September and 7-3 as a home pup, but they are also in pointspread ruts of 0-4 after a SU win, 1-5 at Ralph Wilson and 2-8 against winning teams.
New Orleans is on a barrelful of “over” runs, including 20-7-1 overall, 5-0-1 in September, 13-4 as a road chalk, 18-6-1 after a spread-cover and 19-7 after a SU win. The over for Buffalo is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in September and 9-3-1 on turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) at San Diego (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
The Dolphins, still pursuing their first victory after winning the AFC East title last year, make the cross-country trek to Qualcomm Stadium to face the Chargers.
Miami dominated Indianapolis in time of possession Monday night, holding the ball for more than 45 minutes, but the Dolphins allowed Peyton Manning to lead two fourth-quarter TD drives in a 27-23 loss as a three-point home pup. RB Ronnie Brown (24 carries, 136 yards, 2 TDs) led a rushing attack that netted 239 of Miami’s 403 total yards, and the Dolphins ran a whopping 84 plays to Indy’s 35, yet took the loss.
San Diego came up short at home to Baltimore on Sunday, losing 31-26 as a one-point chalk. QB Philip Rivers had huge numbers, going 25 of 45 for 436 yards and two TDs, but he also threw two INTs that the Ravens converted into 10 points. Rivers had the Chargers on the move for a potential winning score, but Baltimore LB Ray Lewis stuffed Darren Sproles on a fourth-and-2 play at the 15-yard line with 37 seconds left.
Miami is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 17-10 home win last year as a 6½-point home ‘dog. The Dolphins are on a 4-0 ATS roll at Qualcomm, and the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes between these two teams.
The Dolphins have covered in six of their last eight on the road and are on a 5-1 ATS stretch as a road pup, but they are in ATS funks of 3-8 overall and 1-9-2 in September games. The Chargers are on ATS skids of 1-4 against losing teams, 1-4 after a SU loss and 2-7 giving points, but they’re still 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home starts and 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 against AFC squads.
The under for Miami is on tears of 10-3 overall, 5-1 on the road and 6-2 in December, and the under is 5-2-1 in San Diego’s last eight at home, but the over for the Chargers is on rolls of 6-1 overall and 16-5 in September. Finally, in this rivalry, the last seven Chargers-Dolphins meetings have stayed under the total, including each of the last four meetings at Qualcomm.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Pittsburgh (1-1 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (1-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers aim to bounce back from their Week 2 loss when they make the short trip to Paul Brown Stadium to meet the Bengals.
Pittsburgh fell to Chicago 17-14 Sunday as a three-point road favorite, halting a five-game SU win streak (3-2 ATS). QB Ben Roethlisberger (23 of 35, 221 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) threw for a first-quarter TD and ran for a third-quarter score, but Pittsburgh was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter, with the Bears hitting the game-winning field goal with 44 seconds left.
Cincinnati, which mustered just seven points in a shocking last-second Week 1 home loss to Denver, sprang to life at Green Bay in a 31-24 upset as a nine-point underdog in Week 2. QB Carson Palmer (15 of 23, 185 yards, 3 TDs) was a bit shaky, with one of his two INTs returned for a TD, but he paced the Bengals to 17 unanswered points to put the game away. Palmer got a ton of help from RB Cedric Benson (29 carries, 141 yards).
Pittsburgh is on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry, winning 38-10 at Cincy last year giving nine points and 27-10 at home laying 11½. The favorite has cashed in four straight meetings, the road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes, and the Steelers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Cincinnati.
The Steelers have dropped five straight September ATS decisions, and they are on a 1-5 ATS dip as a favorite, but they are on pointspread upswings of 5-0 in the AFC North, 6-2 inside the conference and 9-4 after a SU loss. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, but they are on spread-covering slides of 1-5 against division rivals, 3-10 against AFC foes and 4-10 after a pointspread win.
The over is 13-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 18 starts against AFC opponents, but the under has hit in four of its past five September contests (including both this year), and the under for Cincinnati is on hot streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 9-2-1 at home. Also, the total has fallen short of the posted price in six of the last eight Bengals-Steelers meetings in Cincinnati.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and UNDER
Denver (2-0 SU and ATS) at Oakland (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The upstart Broncos head to the West Coast for a meeting with the AFC West rival Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum.
Denver routed Cleveland 27-6 as a three-point favorite Sunday, holding the Browns scoreless after the first quarter and putting up a pair of fourth-quarter TDs in coach Josh McDaniels’ home debut. The Broncos’ defense allowed just 200 total yards and has given up just 13 points through two games. QB Kyle Orton was a serviceable 19 of 37 for 263 yards and a TD, Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno combined for 151 rushing yards, and Denver won the turnover battle 3-1.
Oakland bounced back from a tough home loss to San Diego by winning ugly against the Chiefs 13-10 as a one-point road pup, getting a late Darren McFadden 5-yard TD run. QB JaMarcus Russell was a dismal 7 of 24 for just 109 yards, and the Raiders got outgained 409-166, but the defense picked off Matt Cassel twice, and Oakland finished with no turnovers.
Denver and Oakland split their two games last year SU and ATS, with the road team winning in blowout fashion each time. The Broncos rolled 41-14 in the season-opener as a three-point favorite, and the Raiders returned the favor in a 31-10 November win as a nine-point ‘dog. Oakland is 5-1 ATS (2-4 SU) in the last six clashes, all as an underdog, though the visitor has covered in eight of the last 11.
Despite the Broncos’ back-to-back covers to open the season, they still carry a slew of negative ATS trends, including 12-29-1 overall, 3-14-1 in division play, 6-21-1 as a chalk and 8-20-1 after a SU win. The Raiders, meanwhile, have cashed in four straight games and are on a 4-0 ATS run as a pup, but they’re still just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games.
The over is 10-3 in Denver’s last 13 division tilts and is 7-2 in its last nine September starts, but the under for the Broncos is on surges of 9-4-1 overall (2-0 this year), 6-1 with Denver laying points, 7-0 after a SU win and 5-0 after a spread-cover. Also, the under for Oakland is on tears of 7-3-1 overall, 38-15-2 against winning teams, 5-2 at home and 17-8-1 in AFC West contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Indianapolis (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Arizona (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Colts remain on the road for a second straight week, traveling to the desert southwest to take on the defending NFC champion Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Indianapolis pulled off a rather rare feat Monday night in Miami, notching a 27-23 victory as a three-point chalk despite having the ball for just 14 minutes, 53 seconds – the lowest time of possession for a winning team in the NFL since 1977. QB Peyton Manning (14 of 23, 303 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led two fourth-quarter TD drives, and he also hit Dallas Clark for an 80-yard TD pass on the game’s first play. The Colts gave up 239 rushing yards as the defense was on the field for 84 plays, while the offense had just 35 snaps.
Arizona bounced back from its Week 1 home loss to San Francisco with a 31-17 victory at Jacksonville giving three points. QB Kurt Warner (24 of 26, 243 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) set an NFL record for single-game completion percentage at a whopping 92.3, and the Cards led 31-3 in the third quarter before letting off the gas. Antrel Rolle returned a blocked field goal 83 yards for a second-quarter TD.
In the lone meeting this decade between these two teams, Indy earned a 17-13 home win, but Arizona covered as a 7½-point underdog in the 2005 regular-season finale.
The Colts are on positive pointspread runs of 15-7-1 in September, 12-2-1 as a pup of three points or less and 4-1-1 on the highway, but they’ve gone just 2-9-1 ATS in their last dozen games following a spread-cover. The Cardinals are on several ATS tears, including 6-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-3 as a chalk and 8-0 laying three points or less.
The under is 7-2 in Indianapolis’ last nine games as a ‘dog, but the over is 24-11-2 in the Colts’ last 37 starts as a road pup. Furthermore, the over for Arizona is on sprees of 36-15 overall, 8-2 as a home chalk, 20-7 against winning teams and 19-7 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
NFL
Tennessee (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (2-0 SU and ATS)
The upstart Jets, with a stout defense and a rookie quarterback, aim to keep their strong start going in a meeting at the Meadowlands with the winless Titans, who are practically in a must-win situation three weeks into the season.
New York held New England without a touchdown en route to a 16-9 upset Sunday as a 3½-point home underdog, and the Jets’ defense has yet to give up a TD through the first two games. New York trailed 9-3 at halftime but held the Patriots scoreless the rest of the way, and QB Mark Sanchez (14 of 22, 163 yards, 1 TD) threw for 148 of his yards in the second half and didn’t commit any turnovers.
Tennessee, coming off an overtime loss at Pittsburgh in Week 1, got upended at home Sunday in a 34-31 defeat to Houston as a seven-point favorite, blowing a 21-7 second-quarter lead. RB Chris Johnson went off for 197 yards and two TDs – including a 61-yarder – on just 16 carries, but QB Kerry Collins (21 of 33, 216 yards, 2 TDs) had an INT and a lost fumble, with the latter allowing Houston (which had no turnovers) to run out the clock.
The Jets were one of just three teams to beat the Titans in the regular season last year, scoring a stunning 34-13 road upset getting 5½ points in November, Tennessee’s first loss after a 9-0 start. In fact, the Jets are 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) in the last five meetings in this rivalry, all as an underdog, and the road team is on a 5-1 ATS roll.
Despite back-to-back SU and ATS wins to open the year, the Jets are still 2-5 ATS in their last seven dating to the end of 2008 and they’ve failed to cash in five straight as a chalk. However, New York is on ATS upswings of 5-1 after a spread-cover and 6-2 following a SU win. The Titans, despite their sluggish start, are on ATS rolls of 13-6 overall, 9-1 in September, 17-5 catching points, 18-7 on the highway, 7-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a SU home loss.
The under for the Jets is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-2 in September, 11-4 after an ATS win and 10-4-1 after a SU victory. Likewise, the under for Tennessee is on surges of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 with the Titans a pup, 7-2 against winning teams and 7-3 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Jacksonville (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Houston (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Texans look to build on their momentum following an upset win as they return to Reliant Stadium to take on the Jaguars.
Houston knocked off Tennessee 34-31 as a 5½-point ‘dog Sunday, getting a huge effort from QB Matt Schaub, who finished 25 of 39 for 357 yards and four TDs, with no INTs. WR Andre Johnson (10 catches, 149 yards, 2 TDs) also had a big day, and the Texans won the turnover battle 2-0, forcing a late Kerry Collins fumble to put the game away.
Houston has covered in the last three meetings in this AFC South rivalry, including a 30-17 home win last December as a three-point chalk, though the two squads have alternated SU wins over the last five contests. The Texans are 11-3 ATS against Jacksonville since joining the league (5-1 ATS last six), and they’ve covered the number in six of the last seven clashes in Houston.
The Texans are on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-0 inside the division and 5-2 against AFC opponents. On the flip side, the Jaguars are on spread-covering skids of 2-7 overall, 2-15 on grass, 1-6 against the AFC, 1-4 in division play and 2-5 getting points.
The over for Houston is on rolls of 19-7 in the division and 7-1 in September, but otherwise the team is on “under” tears of 6-2 overall, 6-0 after a spread-cover and 5-1 against the AFC. The under for Jacksonville is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 7-1 with the Jags a pup and 6-1-1 in conference action. Finally, three of the last four games in this rivalry have gone high, with last December’s contest falling just short of the posted price of 48½.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Kansas City (0-2 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Eagles, minus Donovan McNabb for the second game in a row, remain at home for a second straight week when they meet the Chiefs at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia, with backup Kevin Kolb at QB, hung with New Orleans in the first half Sunday, but couldn’t keep pace with the Saints’ high-octane offense in the second half of a 48-22 beatdown as a 2½-point home pup. With McNair nursing a cracked rib, Kolb aired out the ball 51 times, completing 31 for 351 yards and two TDs, but he threw three INTs and lost one of his two fumbles in committing all four of the Eagles’ turnovers.
McNabb (cracked rib) didn’t practice this week and almost certainly won’t play, so Kolb will start, and Michael Vick will likely be integrated into the offense as he returns to the NFL following a well-documented two-year hiatus.
Kansas City fell to Oakland 13-10 as a one-point home favorite Sunday, getting a field goal early in the first quarter and not scoring again until posting a TD with just 1:31 left in the game. QB Matt Cassel (24 of 39, 241 yards, 1 TD) made his first start for the Chiefs coming off a knee injury, and he threw a pair of INTs, while K.C. failed to force any turnovers and lost the game despite outgaining Oakland 409-166.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Philly going 2-0 SU and ATS on the road, including a 37-31 win getting 1½ points in October 2005.
The Eagles are on ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 6-1 after a double-digit home loss, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4 following a non-cover. The Chiefs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road starts, but they are otherwise in ATS ruts of 0-4 overall, 1-4 after a pointspread loss and 1-4 in September, and they are a paltry 2-16 SU (8-10 ATS) in their last 18 games, dating to the 2008 season opener.
The over for Philadelphia is on stretches of 4-0-1 at home, 4-1 in September, 4-0 after a non-cover and 6-2 following a double-digit home loss. The under for Kansas City is on upticks of 4-1 on the road and 13-4 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Cleveland (0-2 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Ravens, off to a strong start after reaching the AFC title game last season, face the division rival Browns at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore held off San Diego 31-26 Sunday as a one-point road pup, moving to 16-5 ATS (15-6 SU) dating to the beginning of the 2008 season. QB Joe Flacco (17 of 26, 190 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady, and the Ravens won despite being outgained 474-311, giving up 421 passing yards to Philip Rivers but also picking him off twice.
Cleveland got drubbed at Denver 26-7 as a 3½-point ‘dog last Sunday, extending its losing streak to eight games (0-7-1 ATS). QB Brady Quinn was 18 of 31 for a pedestrian 161 yards, with no TDs, one INT and a lost fumble, and the Browns mustered just 200 total yards while giving up 449 and losing the turnover battle, 3-1. Quinn has already been sacked nine times.
Baltimore won and covered in both meetings with Cleveland last year, ending a 5-0 ATS roll by the Browns in this rivalry. The Ravens coasted 28-10 as a one-point home chalk last September. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests, and the pup is 10-4 ATS lifetime in this rivalry.
The Ravens are on a boatload of spread-covering streaks, including 17-5 overall, 5-0 in September, 8-1 giving points, 5-1 at home, 38-15-1 as a home chalk (6-1 ATS last seven) and 10-2 against the AFC. The Browns, meanwhile, are mired in ATS funks of 0-4 on the road, 0-5 after a non-cover, 0-6 after a SU loss, 1-4 in the AFC North and 4-9 as a division road ‘dog.
Baltimore is on “over” surges of 4-0 in September, 7-1 against losing teams, 5-1 in the AFC North and 16-7 against AFC opponents, and in this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 4-0-1 overall and 5-1 in Baltimore. However, the under for Cleveland is on runs of 5-2-1 overall, 5-1 against the AFC and 8-3-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
N.Y. Giants (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Giants, looking very playoff worthy after two weeks, travel to Raymond James Stadium for a date with the Buccaneers, who are still seeking their first win under new coach Raheem Morris.
New York went into Dallas as a three-point ‘dog and came away with a 33-31 outright win Sunday night, improving to 10-4 ATS in its last 14 outings. QB Eli Manning had a clean game, completing 25 of 38 passes for 330 yards and two TDs, and he led a 56-yard drive that ended with the game-winning field goal as time expired. The Giants allowed a whopping 251 rushing yards, but they rattled Tony Romo (13 of 29, 127 yards, 1 TD) into throwing three INTs en route to winning the turnover battle, 4-0.
Tampa Bay lost at Buffalo 33-20 as a four-point pup, falling behind 17-0 in the first quarter and failing to fully recover in losing its sixth straight game (1-5 ATS). The Bucs had little to their running game (57 yards), and Byron Leftwich (26 of 50, 296 yards, 3 TDs) threw a pair of INTs, including one returned 76 yards for a first-quarter Bills TD. Tampa also yielded 218 rushing yards, mostly to Fred Jackson (28 carries, 163 yards).
The last time these teams met was also in Tampa, in the wild-card round for the 2007 playoffs, with New York winning 24-14 as a three-point underdog to begin its run to the Super Bowl title. The Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four contests (3-1 SU).
The Giants boast positive pointspread streaks of 21-7 overall, a sterling 22-6 on the highway, 21-7 after a SU win, 20-7 following a spread-cover and 6-1 as a road chalk, and they are also on a 10-3 ATS tear as a non-division road favorite. The Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 overall, 0-4 at Raymond James and 1-4 as a home ‘dog.
The over for New York is on runs of 4-0 in September and 4-1 against losing teams, and the over for Tampa Bay is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in September, 6-1 against winning teams and 5-1 with the Bucs a home pup. In this rivalry, though, the total has stayed low in six straight meetings overall and four in a row in Tampa.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Washington (1-1 SU and ATS) at Detroit (0-2 SU and ATS)
The hapless Lions, who haven’t won a game since the second-to-last week of the 2007 season, look to halt their freefall when they host the Redskins at Ford Field.
Detroit got out to a 10-0 lead against Minnesota on Sunday, then surrendered the next 27 points in a 27-13 setback as a 10-point home underdog, losing its 19th consecutive game (7-12 ATS). Rookie QB and No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford (18 of 30, 152 yards, 1 TD) threw his fourth and fifth INTs of the young season as the Lions lost the turnover battle 3-1 in a game in which both teams finished with 265 total yards.
Washington pulled out a sleeper against St. Louis 9-7 last Sunday, falling far short of covering the 10-point spread at home. QB Jason Campbell (23 of 35, 242 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was serviceable, but the Redskins failed to generate a TD against a team that went 2-14 last year and gave up 28 points at Seattle in the season opener. Washington outgained the Rams 362-245 and won on a field goal midway through the third quarter, with neither team scoring the rest of the way.
The Redskins are on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 25-17 road win last year, narrowly covering as a seven-point chalk. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the favorite is on a 5-2 ATS surge, but the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The Lions are 1-25 SU (8-18 ATS) in their last 26 starts, and they are on further ATS purges of 1-9 at Ford Field, 0-5 in September and 6-14 against the AFC, though they carry positive ATS streaks of 5-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a double-digit home loss. The Redskins have covered four of their last five September games, but they are otherwise on ATS slides of 2-6-2 overall, 1-5-1 laying points, 3-13-3 against losing teams and 3-9-2 in non-division road games.
The over for Detroit is on tears of 19-7-1 overall, 9-3-1 with the Lions a pup and 8-3 in September. Conversely, the under for Washington is on runs of 11-2-1 overall, 7-0-1 with the ‘Skins a chalk, 5-1-1 against losing teams and 12-5-1 in September. Finally, the under is 5-0-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Green Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (0-2, 1-1 ATS)
The Packers, upset victims in Week 2, aim to get back on track with a trip to the Edward Jones Done to face the struggling Rams in their home opener.
Green Bay stumbled to Cincinnati 31-24 as a heavy nine-point home favorite Sunday, scoring a meager three points in the second half – on a field goal in the final minute. QB Aaron Rodgers (21 of 39, 261 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) now has no turnovers through two games, and the Pack got two INTs, returning one to the end zone for its first score of the game. But Green Bay’s defense couldn’t slow RB Cedric Benson (29 carries, 141 yards), losing the time-of-possession battle by 7½ minutes.
St. Louis was dealt its 12th consecutive loss (5-7 ATS), falling just short to Washington 9-7 but covering as a healthy 10-point road underdog. QB Marc Bulger (15 of 28, 125 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t do much, but RB Steven Jackson (17 carries, 104 yards, 6.1 ypc) had a solid day. The Rams finished with just 245 total yards, while allowing 362 and finishing nearly 10 minutes back in time of possession.
These squads have alternated SU and ATS wins in their last four meetings, with Green Bay most recently claiming a 33-14 road win as a seven-point chalk in December 2007. In five clashes this decade, the favorite has cashed every time.
The Packers are on a 2-6 ATS skid overall and are on further pointspread dips of 0-4 against losing teams and 1-5 as a favorite, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 14-5-1 on the highway, 8-3 in September and 7-3 as a road chalk. The Rams sport nothing but negative ATS trends, including 6-15 at home, 3-9 as a home ‘dog, 5-11 against NFC opponents and 6-20-1 in September.
Green Bay is on “over” sprees of 19-7-1 overall, 9-3-1 on the highway, 14-4 giving points and 7-2 in September, and the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry. That said, the under for St. Louis is on rolls of 6-1-1 overall (2-0 this season), 4-0-1 at home, 5-1-1 against the NFC and 10-3 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
San Francisco (2-0 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (2-0 SU and ATS)
A battle of unbeatens takes place at the Metrodome, with Brett Favre making his home debut as the Vikings square off with the 49ers.
Minnesota fell behind Detroit 10-0 Sunday, then scored the next 27 points in a 27-13 victory, covering as a 10-point road chalk. Favre was an extremely efficient 23 of 27 for 155 yards and two TDs with no INTs, and RB Adrian Peterson (15 carries, 92 yards, 1 TD) had another solid day. The Vikes won the turnover battle 3-1, picking of rookie QB Matthew Stafford twice in an otherwise even game, as both teams finished with 265 total yards.
San Francisco dispatched Seattle 23-10 Sunday as a one-point home favorite, holding the Seahawks scoreless in the second half. QB Shaun Hill again wasn’t flashy (19 of 26, 144 yards, 0 TDs), but he had no turnovers and got all the help he needed from RB Frank Gore, who tore it up for 207 yards on just 16 carries, including TD runs of 80 and 79 yards.
Minnesota is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-7 road victory giving eight points in December 2007, and the home team has cashed in five of the last six clashes.
The Vikings are on an 8-3 ATS run as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points, but they are on pointspread dives of 1-4 at the dome, 3-6 as a home favorite, 3-8 against the NFC, 2-5 against winning teams, 3-10 after a SU win and 2-6 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the 49ers are on ATS rolls of 5-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 4-1 as a road pup and 4-1 in September. San Fran is also 5-1 ATS as a ‘dog under coach Mike Singletary.
The under for Minnesota is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-0 against NFC foes, 4-1 with the Vikes favored and 35-16-1 following an ATS win. Similarly, the under for San Francisco is on stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-0 with the ‘Niners a ‘dog, 4-0 on the road and 5-1-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
Atlanta (2-0 SU and ATS) at New England (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
The Falcons take their unbeaten mark into a non-conference contest at Gillette Stadium against the Patriots, who are still trying to get their offense on track.
Atlanta held off Carolina 28-20 last week laying six points at home, paced by another efficient outing from QB Matt Ryan, who went 21 of 27 for 220 yards with three TDs and one INT. RB Michael Turner (28 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) also had a strong day, and the Falcons nabbed the win despite allowing 440 total yards, while gaining 371.
New England tumbled to the Jets 16-9 Sunday as a 3½-point road favorite, taking a 9-3 halftime lead – all on field goals – and failing to score the rest of the way. QB Tom Brady was a mediocre 23 of 47 for 216 yards, with no TDs and one INT, and though he didn’t get sacked, he was hurried and hit throughout the game. The Pats finished with 299 total yards, while allowing 254.
These clubs have met just twice this decade in regular-season action, with Atlanta at home both times and New England going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 31-28 win as a three-point pup in October 2005.
The Falcons have cashed in five of their last seven September starts, and they are on an 11-4 ATS surge as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Patriots are on a handful of ATS slides, including 1-4 in September and 3-11 at home (all as a chalk), but they also sport positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 after a non-cover and 19-7-1 after a SU loss.
The under for Atlanta is on streaks of 37-15-1 on the highway and 13-6 with the Falcons a road pup, while the over for New England is on tears of 7-2 overall, 4-0 at home and 7-2 when favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Chicago (1-1 SU and ATS) at Seattle (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Bears look to build off their first win of the Jay Cutler era when they travel to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Chicago pulled off a 17-14 upset of Pittsburgh on Sunday as a three-point home ‘dog, outscoring the Steelers 10-0 in the fourth quarter, including a 44-yard Robbie Gould field goal in the waning seconds. Cutler, who fired four INTs a week earlier in his Bears debut at Green Bay, was much more composed, going 27 of 38 for 236 yards with two TDs and no turnovers. Chicago also didn’t commit a fumble while the defense forced an INT and a fumble.
Seattle fell to San Francisco 23-10 as a one-point underdog, failing to put up any points in the second half after losing QB Matt Hasselbeck (broken rib) late in the second quarter. Seneca Wallace (15 of 23, 127 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was fair filling in, but the Seahawks alllowed 49ers RB Frank Gore to rush for 207 yards on just 16 carries, including TD runs of 80 and 79 yards. Seattle gave up 256 rushing yards, while gaining just 66, leading to a nine-minute deficit in time of possession.
Coach Jim Mora said it’s “extremely unlikely” Hasselbeck will play this week. Last year, Wallace went 3-5 SU but 6-2 ATS in the eight games he started in place of the injury-prone Hasselbeck.
Seattle has covered the last two meetings in this rivalry – a 27-24 overtime road loss as a 9½-point ‘dog in the playoffs following the 2006 regular season, and a 30-23 home win giving six points in November 2007. Prior to that, Chicago had covered four in a row (2-2 SU).
Despite last week’s effort, the Bears are on a bundle of ATS declines, including 3-7-1 overall, 3-7-1 in September, 7-19-2 after a SU win, 0-4-1 after a spread-cover and 1-5 on the road. The Seahawks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight NFC contests, but they are on pointspread upturns of 8-2-1 after a pointspread loss, 10-4-1 after a SU loss, 10-4-1 at Qwest Field and 18-8 as a home favorite (7-1 last eight).
The under for Chicago is on runs of 7-3 overall and 8-2 in roadies, and the under for Seattle is on rolls of 8-2-1 overall, 6-1-1 against the NFC and 5-1 at home. However, the over is 28-13-1 in the Bears’ last 42 games against NFC foes, and the total has gone high in the last three clashes in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
New Orleans (2-0 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The Saints take their high-octane offense to upstate New York for a meeting with the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
New Orleans hammered Philadelphia 48-22 last week as a 2½-point road favorite, outscoring the Eagles 31-9 in the second half. QB Drew Brees had another big day, going 25 of 34 for 311 yards and three TDs, with one INT. The Saints gave up 384 passing yards and were outgained for the game 463-421, but they won the turnover battle 4-1, picking off backup Kevin Kolb three times. Darren Sharper returned the last INT 97 yards for a fourth-quarter TD.
Buffalo, which nearly upset New England on the road in Week 1, finished the job last Sunday against Tampa Bay, rolling 33-20 as a 4½-point home favorite. RB Fred Jackson (28 carries, 163 yards) had a solid game, and QB Trent Edwards (21 of 30, 230 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady enough. The Bills also picked off Byron Leftwich twice, with Donte Whitner taking the first one 76 yards for a first-quarter score.
These squads have met twice this decade in the regular season, with New Orleans going 2-0 SU and ATS, most recently posting a 19-7 home win giving 1½ points in October 2005.
The Saints are on a 6-13-1 ATS slide following a SU win, but they are otherwise on spread-covering runs of 7-1-1 overall, 7-0 laying points, 4-0 in September, 4-0-1 on the highway and 6-1 as a road chalk. The Bills carry positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in September and 7-3 as a home pup, but they are also in pointspread ruts of 0-4 after a SU win, 1-5 at Ralph Wilson and 2-8 against winning teams.
New Orleans is on a barrelful of “over” runs, including 20-7-1 overall, 5-0-1 in September, 13-4 as a road chalk, 18-6-1 after a spread-cover and 19-7 after a SU win. The over for Buffalo is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in September and 9-3-1 on turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) at San Diego (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
The Dolphins, still pursuing their first victory after winning the AFC East title last year, make the cross-country trek to Qualcomm Stadium to face the Chargers.
Miami dominated Indianapolis in time of possession Monday night, holding the ball for more than 45 minutes, but the Dolphins allowed Peyton Manning to lead two fourth-quarter TD drives in a 27-23 loss as a three-point home pup. RB Ronnie Brown (24 carries, 136 yards, 2 TDs) led a rushing attack that netted 239 of Miami’s 403 total yards, and the Dolphins ran a whopping 84 plays to Indy’s 35, yet took the loss.
San Diego came up short at home to Baltimore on Sunday, losing 31-26 as a one-point chalk. QB Philip Rivers had huge numbers, going 25 of 45 for 436 yards and two TDs, but he also threw two INTs that the Ravens converted into 10 points. Rivers had the Chargers on the move for a potential winning score, but Baltimore LB Ray Lewis stuffed Darren Sproles on a fourth-and-2 play at the 15-yard line with 37 seconds left.
Miami is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 17-10 home win last year as a 6½-point home ‘dog. The Dolphins are on a 4-0 ATS roll at Qualcomm, and the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes between these two teams.
The Dolphins have covered in six of their last eight on the road and are on a 5-1 ATS stretch as a road pup, but they are in ATS funks of 3-8 overall and 1-9-2 in September games. The Chargers are on ATS skids of 1-4 against losing teams, 1-4 after a SU loss and 2-7 giving points, but they’re still 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home starts and 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 against AFC squads.
The under for Miami is on tears of 10-3 overall, 5-1 on the road and 6-2 in December, and the under is 5-2-1 in San Diego’s last eight at home, but the over for the Chargers is on rolls of 6-1 overall and 16-5 in September. Finally, in this rivalry, the last seven Chargers-Dolphins meetings have stayed under the total, including each of the last four meetings at Qualcomm.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Pittsburgh (1-1 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (1-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers aim to bounce back from their Week 2 loss when they make the short trip to Paul Brown Stadium to meet the Bengals.
Pittsburgh fell to Chicago 17-14 Sunday as a three-point road favorite, halting a five-game SU win streak (3-2 ATS). QB Ben Roethlisberger (23 of 35, 221 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) threw for a first-quarter TD and ran for a third-quarter score, but Pittsburgh was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter, with the Bears hitting the game-winning field goal with 44 seconds left.
Cincinnati, which mustered just seven points in a shocking last-second Week 1 home loss to Denver, sprang to life at Green Bay in a 31-24 upset as a nine-point underdog in Week 2. QB Carson Palmer (15 of 23, 185 yards, 3 TDs) was a bit shaky, with one of his two INTs returned for a TD, but he paced the Bengals to 17 unanswered points to put the game away. Palmer got a ton of help from RB Cedric Benson (29 carries, 141 yards).
Pittsburgh is on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry, winning 38-10 at Cincy last year giving nine points and 27-10 at home laying 11½. The favorite has cashed in four straight meetings, the road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes, and the Steelers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Cincinnati.
The Steelers have dropped five straight September ATS decisions, and they are on a 1-5 ATS dip as a favorite, but they are on pointspread upswings of 5-0 in the AFC North, 6-2 inside the conference and 9-4 after a SU loss. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, but they are on spread-covering slides of 1-5 against division rivals, 3-10 against AFC foes and 4-10 after a pointspread win.
The over is 13-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 18 starts against AFC opponents, but the under has hit in four of its past five September contests (including both this year), and the under for Cincinnati is on hot streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 9-2-1 at home. Also, the total has fallen short of the posted price in six of the last eight Bengals-Steelers meetings in Cincinnati.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and UNDER
Denver (2-0 SU and ATS) at Oakland (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The upstart Broncos head to the West Coast for a meeting with the AFC West rival Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum.
Denver routed Cleveland 27-6 as a three-point favorite Sunday, holding the Browns scoreless after the first quarter and putting up a pair of fourth-quarter TDs in coach Josh McDaniels’ home debut. The Broncos’ defense allowed just 200 total yards and has given up just 13 points through two games. QB Kyle Orton was a serviceable 19 of 37 for 263 yards and a TD, Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno combined for 151 rushing yards, and Denver won the turnover battle 3-1.
Oakland bounced back from a tough home loss to San Diego by winning ugly against the Chiefs 13-10 as a one-point road pup, getting a late Darren McFadden 5-yard TD run. QB JaMarcus Russell was a dismal 7 of 24 for just 109 yards, and the Raiders got outgained 409-166, but the defense picked off Matt Cassel twice, and Oakland finished with no turnovers.
Denver and Oakland split their two games last year SU and ATS, with the road team winning in blowout fashion each time. The Broncos rolled 41-14 in the season-opener as a three-point favorite, and the Raiders returned the favor in a 31-10 November win as a nine-point ‘dog. Oakland is 5-1 ATS (2-4 SU) in the last six clashes, all as an underdog, though the visitor has covered in eight of the last 11.
Despite the Broncos’ back-to-back covers to open the season, they still carry a slew of negative ATS trends, including 12-29-1 overall, 3-14-1 in division play, 6-21-1 as a chalk and 8-20-1 after a SU win. The Raiders, meanwhile, have cashed in four straight games and are on a 4-0 ATS run as a pup, but they’re still just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games.
The over is 10-3 in Denver’s last 13 division tilts and is 7-2 in its last nine September starts, but the under for the Broncos is on surges of 9-4-1 overall (2-0 this year), 6-1 with Denver laying points, 7-0 after a SU win and 5-0 after a spread-cover. Also, the under for Oakland is on tears of 7-3-1 overall, 38-15-2 against winning teams, 5-2 at home and 17-8-1 in AFC West contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Indianapolis (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Arizona (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Colts remain on the road for a second straight week, traveling to the desert southwest to take on the defending NFC champion Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Indianapolis pulled off a rather rare feat Monday night in Miami, notching a 27-23 victory as a three-point chalk despite having the ball for just 14 minutes, 53 seconds – the lowest time of possession for a winning team in the NFL since 1977. QB Peyton Manning (14 of 23, 303 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led two fourth-quarter TD drives, and he also hit Dallas Clark for an 80-yard TD pass on the game’s first play. The Colts gave up 239 rushing yards as the defense was on the field for 84 plays, while the offense had just 35 snaps.
Arizona bounced back from its Week 1 home loss to San Francisco with a 31-17 victory at Jacksonville giving three points. QB Kurt Warner (24 of 26, 243 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) set an NFL record for single-game completion percentage at a whopping 92.3, and the Cards led 31-3 in the third quarter before letting off the gas. Antrel Rolle returned a blocked field goal 83 yards for a second-quarter TD.
In the lone meeting this decade between these two teams, Indy earned a 17-13 home win, but Arizona covered as a 7½-point underdog in the 2005 regular-season finale.
The Colts are on positive pointspread runs of 15-7-1 in September, 12-2-1 as a pup of three points or less and 4-1-1 on the highway, but they’ve gone just 2-9-1 ATS in their last dozen games following a spread-cover. The Cardinals are on several ATS tears, including 6-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-3 as a chalk and 8-0 laying three points or less.
The under is 7-2 in Indianapolis’ last nine games as a ‘dog, but the over is 24-11-2 in the Colts’ last 37 starts as a road pup. Furthermore, the over for Arizona is on sprees of 36-15 overall, 8-2 as a home chalk, 20-7 against winning teams and 19-7 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
GMC- San Fran +, Tenn-ML, Patriots-, Buffalo +, San Diego-
Power Sweep Over/Under section
Our Over/Under Section is in its 22nd season. Each week we list the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night. An * denotes an estimated line. Here are this week's plays:
3★ Giants/Bucs Over 43
3★ Dolphins/Chargers Over 46*
3★ Titans/Jets Under 38
2★ Redskins/Lions Under 38'
2★ Steelers/Bengals Under 36
PRO STAT PLAY: BALTIMORE
PRO ANGLES
(3) GREEN BAY
(3) PITTSBURGH
System Section
Play on a non-conf road dog before its bye, vs a foe off of a road loss.
1996-2008 27-9-1 75%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY:
ATLANTA
Our Over/Under Section is in its 22nd season. Each week we list the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night. An * denotes an estimated line. Here are this week's plays:
3★ Giants/Bucs Over 43
3★ Dolphins/Chargers Over 46*
3★ Titans/Jets Under 38
2★ Redskins/Lions Under 38'
2★ Steelers/Bengals Under 36
PRO STAT PLAY: BALTIMORE
PRO ANGLES
(3) GREEN BAY
(3) PITTSBURGH
System Section
Play on a non-conf road dog before its bye, vs a foe off of a road loss.
1996-2008 27-9-1 75%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY:
ATLANTA
