Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Sunday
Date/Time: Sunday September 27 / 1:00PM EST
Sport/Type: NFL / Side
Game: San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 5* Minnesota Vikings -7
Analysis:
The Minnesota Vikings opened to the 2009 campaign on the road with wins over Cleveland and Detroit. This will be the hometown Vikings fans first opportunity to welcome their new QB to town and you can bet the Metrodome will be noisy on Sunday afternoon.
The Vikings defense has not been as dominating in their first two outings as they were last season. They finished last year with the 6th best defense overall and they have held their first two opponents to 257 yards per game and only 17 first downs which currently has them ranked 15th in the league against the rush.
49er backers are hoping their RB Frank Gore has a big day against this Vikings “D” but I wouldn’t count on it as they will be prepared for the Niners rushing attack. The Vikings front seven are much better than any the Niners have faced so far this season. One key note RB Gore left last week with an ankle injury and could possibly be less than 100 percent on Sunday.
San Francisco’s defense has looked good this season ranking in the top ten but they have not faced the type of talent and speed that they will face today. Not only do the Vikings have the best running back in the league with Adrian Peterson who leads the league with 272 yards rushing but they also have deadly speed on the carpet with rookie Percy Harvin who has already made his presence felt this season. Oh by the way Favre was 23 of 27 last week with 2 touchdowns and no INT’s.
San Fran has also opened the season with two wins the last coming at home against Seattle 23 to 10 outgaining them 379 to 283. This triggers one of our NFL Systems that says Play AGAINST a non-division conference road underdog of 1½-9 points with a TOTAL under 50 points off a division home SU win of 8+ points (not as a favorite of 3+ points) allowing less than 24 points in its last game. These road underdogs are 0-14 ATS and average losing by 11 points per game.
The 49ers are 0-6 ATS on the road when their opponent is off two wins of ten or more points. They are 0-6 ATS as an underdog of a touchdown or more after a game in which they had more than thirty-four minutes of possession time. San Fran is 1-12 ATS off a home game in which they scored at least 21 points. Minnesota is 8-0 ATS the week after their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. They are 8-0-1 ATS versus a non-division opponent the week before facing a divisional opponent. The Vikings are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus San Fran their last 7 meetings, 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings when hosting the 49ers, and overall, the home team owns an 8-2 SU & ATS mark in the series. The Vikings are 16-3 ATS off a 10 or more points win with one or fewer turnovers and 11-1 ATS off a ten or more point win with a total of 42.5 or more.
The Minnesota Vikings will bring the 49ers back down to earth on Sunday in the Metrodome. Lay the chalk with the host as Favre, Peterson, Harvin and the Vikings “D” all have big days against this 49ers team.
Graded Selection: 5* Minnesota Vikings 29 San Francisco 49ers 16
Date/Time: Sunday September 27 / 4:15PM EST
Sport/Type: NFL / Side
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 4* Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Analysis:
The Pittsburgh Steelers invade the Queen City on Sunday and this is much like a home game for the Steelers as their fans travel well and have made this place a second home. Pittsburgh is actually 7-0 both straight up and against the number when playing in the Queen City.
Cincinnati was able to steal a victory last week versus the Packers and we say steal because the win was certainly not due to the play of the Bengals who had an INT returned for a TD and over 100 yards in penalties. They were fortunate to catch a Packers team coming off an emotional come from behind win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday night. That was the perfect letdown opportunity for the Bengals to cash in on versus the Packers and they did despite themselves.
Each team enters with a record of 1-1 and this is their first divisional game of the season but they are really miles apart on both sides of the ball. The Steelers are a very physical team that is well disciplined and coming off a loss they will be focused on the job at hand. Pittsburgh is 9-0 ATS coming off a loss in which they were ahead by at least seven points at the end of the first quarter. The Steelers eventually lost the game to the Bears in Chicago 17 to 14. Cincinnati is 2-15 ATS at home facing division opponents coming off a loss.
This series has been dominated by the Steelers with them winning the last five including four in a row by double figures. Pittsburgh is 13-3 SU/ATS since 1994 versus Cincinnati in the Queen City. The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS when facing a division opponent on the road. They are 9-4 ATS versus AFC North rivals and 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS when playing them on the road. The Bengals are 0-11 ATS versus a divisional opponent who comes in with the same record. They are also 0-8 ATS coming off a road game in which they had at least one hundred yards in penalties.
A check of the database reveals a key angle that is active in today’s contest. Cincinnati is 0-21 ATS when playing on Sunday’s before week 16 against a divisional opponent after playing at least two straight non-divisional opponents allowing less than five hundred yards passing and gained fewer than thirty-three first downs in their last game.
Because of last week’s win by the Bengals over the Packers we are getting decent line value here with the Steelers. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Steelers win by 9.4 points and our Math Model also projects a big win for Pittsburgh with an 8.8 point advantage over the host Bengals.
Lay the short price with the men of steel as they roll past an overrated Bengals team on Sunday afternoon.
Graded Selection: 4* Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 10
Date/Time: Sunday September 27 / 1:00PM EST
Sport/Type: NFL / Side
Game: Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 4* Tennessee Titans +2
Analysis:
Tennessee heads to the Big Apple with what they might have thought before the season started would certainly be a “W” in their ledger but my how times have changed in both cities. The Jets are the 2-0 team while the Titans are staring at a 0-3 start which HC Fisher knows is a death-blow to teams hoping to make the post season. This comes on the heels of a 13-4 season straight up and 12-5 against the number in 2008.
Tennessee’s defense appears to be missing Albert Haynesworth in the middle of their defensive front and their pass defense is last in the league with 339 yards per game. They are still solid against the run only allowing Steve Slaton to run for more than 100 yards since the beginning of last season and they held him in check last week. HC Fisher and DC Chuck Cecil will get the pass defense corrected and you can bet they will have a plan in place for the rookie.
The Titans were done in last week by one of the best if not the best wide receiver in the league in Andre Johnson who was remarkable to say the least. Jets do not have that type of outside threat and they have a rookie QB who has been protected for the most part to this point in the season. Titans “D” will pull out all the stops here to halt the bleeding and get back to their winning ways.
On the offensive side of the ball the Titans have a very powerful rushing attack with a monster in Chris Johnson who had 197 yards rushing in the loss last week. He had a combined 284 yards rushing and receiving and three touchdowns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see RB LenDale White involved in the offensive game plan this week as well, a two headed rushing monster running wild in NY. In their two wins the Jets have not faced this type of threat and it will bring about their demise on Sunday in the Big Apple. The Titans are 14-3 ATS after gaining 200 or more yards rushing in their last game.
Tennessee is 11-0 ATS after a game where their time of possession was less than thirty minutes and they had no sacks. The Titans are 8-0 ATS as an underdog when they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS on the road after losing by 1 to 3 points last week. In this series the favorite has lost four of the last five meetings including all five against the spread.
A check of the database reveals two NFL systems that are active for today’s contest. Play AGAINST an undefeated conference home team off a home contest in its last game vs. an opponent off a favorite/pick ‘em SU loss last week. These home teams are 0-9 ATS and average losing to the spread by more than 11 points per game. Play ON any NFL team within 3 of pickem the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards than their season-to-date average. These Play ON teams are 10-0 ATS and average covering the spread by 14.2 points per game.
We will take the points here as the veteran bunch from Nashville ride into the Big Apple and catch a Jets team still relishing their victory over Tom Brady and the Patriots, by the way that was the Jets first ever home victory over Mr. Brady and his Patriots.
Graded Selection: 4* Tennessee Titans 20 New York Jets 16
Game: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 4:15PM EST
Play: 4* UNDER 37
Pittsburgh is 0-9 ‘under” on the road when they lost by 1 to 3 points in their last game, 28-7 ‘under’ away after 1 or more consecutive losses, 18-5 ‘under’ off an upset loss as a favorite, 12-2 ‘under’ off a road loss and 10-1 ‘under’ on the road after a loss by 3 or fewer points. Cincinnati is 0-9 ‘under’ the week after a road game in which they had at least three more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Bengals are 0-7 ‘under’ when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions this season. Play UNDER in conference games during the first month of the season when you have a non-playoff team from the last season who won their last two games, 28-61 ‘under’.
Game: Denver @ Oakland 4:15PM EST
Play: 3* UNDER 36.5
Play UNDER in conference games during the first month of the season when you have a non-playoff team from the last season who won their last two games, 28-61 ‘under’. Play UNDER with a line between 3 and pickem with a road team when they allowed more than ten first downs last week facing a team that has completed less than 55 percent of their passes season-to-date
Date/Time: Sunday September 27 / 1:00PM EST
Sport/Type: NFL / Side
Game: San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 5* Minnesota Vikings -7
Analysis:
The Minnesota Vikings opened to the 2009 campaign on the road with wins over Cleveland and Detroit. This will be the hometown Vikings fans first opportunity to welcome their new QB to town and you can bet the Metrodome will be noisy on Sunday afternoon.
The Vikings defense has not been as dominating in their first two outings as they were last season. They finished last year with the 6th best defense overall and they have held their first two opponents to 257 yards per game and only 17 first downs which currently has them ranked 15th in the league against the rush.
49er backers are hoping their RB Frank Gore has a big day against this Vikings “D” but I wouldn’t count on it as they will be prepared for the Niners rushing attack. The Vikings front seven are much better than any the Niners have faced so far this season. One key note RB Gore left last week with an ankle injury and could possibly be less than 100 percent on Sunday.
San Francisco’s defense has looked good this season ranking in the top ten but they have not faced the type of talent and speed that they will face today. Not only do the Vikings have the best running back in the league with Adrian Peterson who leads the league with 272 yards rushing but they also have deadly speed on the carpet with rookie Percy Harvin who has already made his presence felt this season. Oh by the way Favre was 23 of 27 last week with 2 touchdowns and no INT’s.
San Fran has also opened the season with two wins the last coming at home against Seattle 23 to 10 outgaining them 379 to 283. This triggers one of our NFL Systems that says Play AGAINST a non-division conference road underdog of 1½-9 points with a TOTAL under 50 points off a division home SU win of 8+ points (not as a favorite of 3+ points) allowing less than 24 points in its last game. These road underdogs are 0-14 ATS and average losing by 11 points per game.
The 49ers are 0-6 ATS on the road when their opponent is off two wins of ten or more points. They are 0-6 ATS as an underdog of a touchdown or more after a game in which they had more than thirty-four minutes of possession time. San Fran is 1-12 ATS off a home game in which they scored at least 21 points. Minnesota is 8-0 ATS the week after their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. They are 8-0-1 ATS versus a non-division opponent the week before facing a divisional opponent. The Vikings are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus San Fran their last 7 meetings, 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings when hosting the 49ers, and overall, the home team owns an 8-2 SU & ATS mark in the series. The Vikings are 16-3 ATS off a 10 or more points win with one or fewer turnovers and 11-1 ATS off a ten or more point win with a total of 42.5 or more.
The Minnesota Vikings will bring the 49ers back down to earth on Sunday in the Metrodome. Lay the chalk with the host as Favre, Peterson, Harvin and the Vikings “D” all have big days against this 49ers team.
Graded Selection: 5* Minnesota Vikings 29 San Francisco 49ers 16
Date/Time: Sunday September 27 / 4:15PM EST
Sport/Type: NFL / Side
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 4* Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Analysis:
The Pittsburgh Steelers invade the Queen City on Sunday and this is much like a home game for the Steelers as their fans travel well and have made this place a second home. Pittsburgh is actually 7-0 both straight up and against the number when playing in the Queen City.
Cincinnati was able to steal a victory last week versus the Packers and we say steal because the win was certainly not due to the play of the Bengals who had an INT returned for a TD and over 100 yards in penalties. They were fortunate to catch a Packers team coming off an emotional come from behind win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday night. That was the perfect letdown opportunity for the Bengals to cash in on versus the Packers and they did despite themselves.
Each team enters with a record of 1-1 and this is their first divisional game of the season but they are really miles apart on both sides of the ball. The Steelers are a very physical team that is well disciplined and coming off a loss they will be focused on the job at hand. Pittsburgh is 9-0 ATS coming off a loss in which they were ahead by at least seven points at the end of the first quarter. The Steelers eventually lost the game to the Bears in Chicago 17 to 14. Cincinnati is 2-15 ATS at home facing division opponents coming off a loss.
This series has been dominated by the Steelers with them winning the last five including four in a row by double figures. Pittsburgh is 13-3 SU/ATS since 1994 versus Cincinnati in the Queen City. The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS when facing a division opponent on the road. They are 9-4 ATS versus AFC North rivals and 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS when playing them on the road. The Bengals are 0-11 ATS versus a divisional opponent who comes in with the same record. They are also 0-8 ATS coming off a road game in which they had at least one hundred yards in penalties.
A check of the database reveals a key angle that is active in today’s contest. Cincinnati is 0-21 ATS when playing on Sunday’s before week 16 against a divisional opponent after playing at least two straight non-divisional opponents allowing less than five hundred yards passing and gained fewer than thirty-three first downs in their last game.
Because of last week’s win by the Bengals over the Packers we are getting decent line value here with the Steelers. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Steelers win by 9.4 points and our Math Model also projects a big win for Pittsburgh with an 8.8 point advantage over the host Bengals.
Lay the short price with the men of steel as they roll past an overrated Bengals team on Sunday afternoon.
Graded Selection: 4* Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 10
Date/Time: Sunday September 27 / 1:00PM EST
Sport/Type: NFL / Side
Game: Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 4* Tennessee Titans +2
Analysis:
Tennessee heads to the Big Apple with what they might have thought before the season started would certainly be a “W” in their ledger but my how times have changed in both cities. The Jets are the 2-0 team while the Titans are staring at a 0-3 start which HC Fisher knows is a death-blow to teams hoping to make the post season. This comes on the heels of a 13-4 season straight up and 12-5 against the number in 2008.
Tennessee’s defense appears to be missing Albert Haynesworth in the middle of their defensive front and their pass defense is last in the league with 339 yards per game. They are still solid against the run only allowing Steve Slaton to run for more than 100 yards since the beginning of last season and they held him in check last week. HC Fisher and DC Chuck Cecil will get the pass defense corrected and you can bet they will have a plan in place for the rookie.
The Titans were done in last week by one of the best if not the best wide receiver in the league in Andre Johnson who was remarkable to say the least. Jets do not have that type of outside threat and they have a rookie QB who has been protected for the most part to this point in the season. Titans “D” will pull out all the stops here to halt the bleeding and get back to their winning ways.
On the offensive side of the ball the Titans have a very powerful rushing attack with a monster in Chris Johnson who had 197 yards rushing in the loss last week. He had a combined 284 yards rushing and receiving and three touchdowns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see RB LenDale White involved in the offensive game plan this week as well, a two headed rushing monster running wild in NY. In their two wins the Jets have not faced this type of threat and it will bring about their demise on Sunday in the Big Apple. The Titans are 14-3 ATS after gaining 200 or more yards rushing in their last game.
Tennessee is 11-0 ATS after a game where their time of possession was less than thirty minutes and they had no sacks. The Titans are 8-0 ATS as an underdog when they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS on the road after losing by 1 to 3 points last week. In this series the favorite has lost four of the last five meetings including all five against the spread.
A check of the database reveals two NFL systems that are active for today’s contest. Play AGAINST an undefeated conference home team off a home contest in its last game vs. an opponent off a favorite/pick ‘em SU loss last week. These home teams are 0-9 ATS and average losing to the spread by more than 11 points per game. Play ON any NFL team within 3 of pickem the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards than their season-to-date average. These Play ON teams are 10-0 ATS and average covering the spread by 14.2 points per game.
We will take the points here as the veteran bunch from Nashville ride into the Big Apple and catch a Jets team still relishing their victory over Tom Brady and the Patriots, by the way that was the Jets first ever home victory over Mr. Brady and his Patriots.
Graded Selection: 4* Tennessee Titans 20 New York Jets 16
Game: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 4:15PM EST
Play: 4* UNDER 37
Pittsburgh is 0-9 ‘under” on the road when they lost by 1 to 3 points in their last game, 28-7 ‘under’ away after 1 or more consecutive losses, 18-5 ‘under’ off an upset loss as a favorite, 12-2 ‘under’ off a road loss and 10-1 ‘under’ on the road after a loss by 3 or fewer points. Cincinnati is 0-9 ‘under’ the week after a road game in which they had at least three more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Bengals are 0-7 ‘under’ when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions this season. Play UNDER in conference games during the first month of the season when you have a non-playoff team from the last season who won their last two games, 28-61 ‘under’.
Game: Denver @ Oakland 4:15PM EST
Play: 3* UNDER 36.5
Play UNDER in conference games during the first month of the season when you have a non-playoff team from the last season who won their last two games, 28-61 ‘under’. Play UNDER with a line between 3 and pickem with a road team when they allowed more than ten first downs last week facing a team that has completed less than 55 percent of their passes season-to-date
