DCI
Sunday, September 13, 2009
ATLANTA 24, Miami 18
BALTIMORE 33, Kansas City 7
Philadelphia 25, CAROLINA 21
CINCINNATI 26, Denver 17
Minnesota 24, CLEVELAND 13
HOUSTON 32, N.Y. Jets 19
INDIANAPOLIS 27, Jacksonville 13
NEW ORLEANS 41, Detroit 17
Dallas 25, TAMPA BAY 19
ARIZONA 35, San Francisco 19
N.Y. GIANTS 23, Washington 12
SEATTLE 26, St. Louis 16
Chicago 27, GREEN BAY 25
Sunday, September 13, 2009
ATLANTA 24, Miami 18
BALTIMORE 33, Kansas City 7
Philadelphia 25, CAROLINA 21
CINCINNATI 26, Denver 17
Minnesota 24, CLEVELAND 13
HOUSTON 32, N.Y. Jets 19
INDIANAPOLIS 27, Jacksonville 13
NEW ORLEANS 41, Detroit 17
Dallas 25, TAMPA BAY 19
ARIZONA 35, San Francisco 19
N.Y. GIANTS 23, Washington 12
SEATTLE 26, St. Louis 16
Chicago 27, GREEN BAY 25
THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
N.Y. JETS by 6 over Houston
DALLAS by 17 over Tampa Bay
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Denver-Cincinnati game
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
Miami 26 - ATLANTA 24—Sparano-coached Dolphins on a 7-1 run as an
underdog, and they enjoy a defensive edge over the rebuilding, youth-laden
Falcon defense. Yes, it takes a special group to control QB “Matty Ice” Ryan,
RB Michael (more Bruiser than Burner these days) Turner, and future Hall of
Fame TE Tony Gonzalez. But Miami appears to have it, having added the likes
of veteran OLB Jason Taylor, CFL pass rusher Cameron Wake, 6-3 rookie CB
Sean Smith, and Raider S escapee Gibril Wilson (129 tackles LY in Oakland).
Rest assured Dolphins have been working on new variations for their Wildcat
formation all summer. Falcs 9-3 “over” last 12 home.
(05-Atlanta -2 17-10...SR: Miami 7-3)
BALTIMORE 23 - Kansas City 6—Time to lay the lumber behind the rockin’
Raven defense, eager to score on its own vs. mostly inept K.C., which tallied
11.5 ppg in the preseason. To make matters worse, QB Matt Cassel goes into
the opening week with a sprained knee, and backups Brodie Croyle (5 of 16 in
preseason finale) & Tyler Thigpen (two ints.) inspire zip-ah-dee-doo-dah
confidence vs. the likes of Haloti Ngata & Ray Lewis. Plus, rookie HC Todd
Haley is installing his new offense (minus just-relieved o.c. Chan Gailey) and has
a shaky OL, and the Chief defense collected a 16-game record-low 10 sacks LY.
RB Ray Rice adding quickness to Baltimore (8-1 when favored LY) attack.
(06-Baltimore +3 20-10...SR: Kansas City 3-1)
Philadelphia 22 - CAROLINA 14—Panthers have covered 8 of their last 11
at home. But they’re battling injuries (RB Jonathan Stewart, DT Maake
Kemoeatu) early in the season, while Philly has added firepower in the form of
WR Jeremy Maclin, RB Shady McCoy, and FB Leonard Weaver to help Brian
Westbrook & DeSean Jackson. No Michael Vick to faze Donovan McNabb’s
rhythm until Week Three. So, if Eagles’ revamped OL can handle Julius
Peppers, Philly should be able to outscore DeAngelo Williams & Steve Smith.
Panthers 11-4 “under” at home.
(06-PHILADELPHIA +3 27-24...SR: Philadelphia 4-2)
UNDER THE TOTAL CINCINNATI 17 - Denver 16—HC Josh
McDaniels and Broncos have been hammered in the media, virtually since the
day he took over. However, is there really that much value in laying points with
Bengal team that is 2-5 its last 7 when favored, has a shaky OL, its two top TEs
on injured reserve, was last in total offense LY, and QB Carson Palmer
sidelined by a gimpy ankle in the preseason? McDaniels says he expects QB
Kyle Orton (finger) to be ready to go, and what if recalcitrant WR Brandon
Marshall is as well? Bengals “under” 15 of last 21.
(06-DENVER -3 24-23...SR: Denver 16-8)
Minnesota 22 - CLEVELAND 13—First choice might be the “under,” as
offensively-challenged Cleveland scored 10 points or fewer nine times LY and
has gone “under” in 15 of its last 21 games. Browns, with their minimal ground
game, will be hard-pressed to dent the Viking defense, but little-known LB Alex
Hall & DT Ahtyba Rubin helping massive Shaun Rogers up front. Brett Favre
can be expected to show a little age and a little rust after limited training camp.
In the end, Adrian Peterson and improved Minny receiving corps (veteran TE
Shiancoe, rookie WR Percy Harvin) should be the edge.
(05-MINNESOTA -4 24-12...SR: Minnesota 10-3)
N.Y. Jets 26 - HOUSTON 20—We usually avoid going with rookie QBs
in their first start, but Mark Sanchez of the Jets is giving all the signs of being in
the Matt Ryan-Joe Flacco mold as a rookie. Moreover, N.Y. HC Rex Ryan and
offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer appear committed to minimizing
the pressure on Sanchez by using a strong ground game, ferocious defense,
and “uncoverable” third-down back Leon Washington. Meanwhile, the Houston
defense had issues at DT, OLB & CB exiting the preseason. And a gimpy QB
(check Matt Schaub’s ankle injury) is not what you want vs. Ryan’s penetrating,
hard-charging schemes. (06-NY JETS -5 26-11...SR: NY Jets 3-0)
INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Jacksonville 23—Jags’ 2008 season was killed by
early decimating OL injuries and subsequent internal discord, while Indy’s poor
3-4 start can be attributed largely to Peyton Manning’s offseason surgery and
missed training camp. Manning now says it took him six weeks LY to find his
regular groove. Now he has to adjust to new HC Jim Caldwell, and new
defensive coordinator Larry Coyer is changing the familiar Tampa Two base
preferred by Tony Dungy, while key S Bob Sanders missed all of preseason with
a bum knee. Colts 6-13 last 19 as chalk. Check status of Jags’ key RB Maurice
Jones-Drew (shin bruise).
(08-Jack. 23-INDY 21...J.25-19 J.48/236 I.19/114 I.15/29/2/211 J.16/22/1/167 J.0 I.0)
(08-Indy 31-JACK. 24...J.28-20 J.27/105 I.18/32 I.29/34/0/364 J.28/41/1/304 I.0 J.0)
(08-Jacksonville +4' 23-21, Indianapolis -6' 31-24...SR: Indianapolis 12-4)
NEW ORLEANS 33 - Detroit 24—With pointspread rising due to quickstriking
Drew Brees offense in the preseason, best play in this one probably the
“over” (Lions 18-6 “over” away; Saints 16-8 “over” at home). But before laying
the tall-cotton, double-digit pointspread, remember that winless Detroit was 6-
2 vs. the number as a visitor LY and is supremely motivated to snap its
ignominious 17-game losing streak. New Orleans still has defensive
shortcomings (including suspended DEs Will Smith & Charles Grant), while
young Lions have big-time WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith to help QBs
Daunte Culpepper & Matthew Stafford.
(08-N. Orl. 42-DET. 7...N.32-15 N.30/181 D.27/129 N.30/40/0/351 D.11/26/2/126 N.1 D.0)
(08-New Orleans -7 42-7...SR: EVEN 9-9-1)
Dallas 27 - TAMPA BAY 10—First game as a head coach of any kind
for 33-year-old Raheem Morris of Tampa Bay. And although veteran Byron
Leftwich has a strong arm to the trigger the Buc offense, NFL sack king
DeMarcus Ware (20 LY) and the Dallas defense know exactly where the tall,
slow Leftwich will be while the QB searches for his non-scary cast of receivers.
And T.B. “O” dealing with recent dismissal of o.c. Jagodzinski. Cowboys happy
to have dynamic RB Felix Jones (missed last 10 games LY) back to help Marion
Barber III, while Bucs missing suspended S Tanard Jackson. Dallas insiders
say the players believe Wade Phillips’ tougher camp TY will pay dividends.
(08-DALLAS 13-T. Bay 9...D.17-15 D.26/70 T.19/48 T.28/44/0/214 D.19/33/0/102 D.0 T.1)
(08-DALLAS -2 13-9...SR: Dallas 10-3)
ARIZONA 27 - San Francisco 24—Recent Super Bowl losers do not have a
favorable record in their ensuing season. Moreover, the Cards lost both
coordinators from their NFC title team, and their poor 0-4 preseason
performance indicated there is plenty of work to be done before Arizona regains
its 2008 plateau. Meanwhile, the Niners were 5-2-1 vs. the spread down the
stretch LY for HC Mike Singletary, and S.F. has added veteran WR Isaac Bruce &
rookie RB Glen Coffee to the offense. With top pick Beanie Wells around to
balance the Cardinal offense, Arizona likely to add to its 20-7 “over” mark as host.
(08-Ariz. 23-S. FRAN. 13...A.18-13 A.39/109 S.20/108 S.14/20/1/183 A.19/30/0/176 A.0 S.4)
(08-ARIZ. 29-S. Fran. 24...A.21-19 S.28/119 A.19/46 A.32/42/0/328 S.19/40/2/217 A.0 S.1)
(08-Arizona -2' 23-13, ARIZONA -9' 29-24...SR: San Francisco 19-16)
NY GIANTS 22 - Washington 10—Yes, there’s no Plaxico as a “safety
blanket” for ultra-millionaire QB Eli Manning. But the G-Men have covered 5 of
their last 6 vs. Washington, with 5 of the last 6 also going “under.” Both those
trends exist primarily because of the Redskins’ offensive limitations and the
Giants’ defensive prowess, with Washington held to 9 ppg its last five visits.
With their excellent OL, RBs in depth, and sackers in numbers (Osi Umenyiora
returns TY, and rookie Clint Sintim eager to join the group), Los Gigantes likely
to extend those streaks. Free-agent DT Albert Haynesworth & top pick OLB
Brian Orakpo should boost Skins’ own pass rush.
(08-GIANTS 16-Wash. 7...N.21-11 N.32/154 W.24/84 N.19/35/1/200 W.15/27/0/125 N.0 W.0)
(08-Giants 23-WASH. 7...N.23-17 N.35/108 W.18/92 N.21/34/1/296 W.24/39/1/228 N.0 W.1)
(08-NY GIANTS -4 16-7, NY Giants -4 23-7...SR: NY Giants 88-62-4)
SEATTLE 30 - St. Louis 17—There’s no question that new HC Steve
Spagnuolo has brought about an attitude adjustment among the Rams, who
have already exhibited greater effort and camaraderie. However, their 3-1
exhibition record is very deceiving, with QB Marc Bulger, WR Donnie Avery, and
the OL trying to overcome with injuries. On defense, run-stuffer Adam Carricker
(shoulder) is through for the season. Seattle’s Jim Mora has his own OL
concerns, but QB Matt Hasselbeck now has clutch WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh as
a reliable go-to target and top draft pick OLB Aaron Curry appears to be a powerful
force on defense. Seahawks have covered last four vs. Rams, and 10 of last 14
overall at Qwest Field.
(08-SEA. 37-St. Lou. 13...Se.24-14 Se.46/245 St.24/65 St.17/30/1/167 Se.12/20/0/162 Se.1 St.1)
(08-Sea. 23-ST. LOU. 20...St.18-16 St.31/131 Se.27/125 St.20/33/0/211 Se.15/25/0/208 Se.2 St.2)
(08-SEATTLE -9 37-13, Seattle -2' 23-20...SR: Seattle 12-10)
*GREEN BAY 31 - Chicago 20—With two of the better young QBs firing
away, certainly can see the Packers extending their 18-7 “over” mark at
Lambeau Field. However, while Aaron Rodgers has been nearly flawless
(71%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) in the preseason, Jay Cutler is still developing that special
rapport with his receivers. Moreover, Bears have been banged up in the
secondary, while G.B.’s new, stunting 3-4 defense has collected eight
interceptions. Chicago RB Forte the top overland force in this game. But Cutler (18
ints. LY in Denver), who loves to take chances, playing his first game at noisy
Lambeau. TV-NBC
(08-G. BAY 37-Chi. 3...G.24-9 G.38/200 C.20/83 G.23/30/1/227 C.17/33/0/156 G.0 C.1)
(08-CHI. 20-G. Bay 17 (OT)...G.20-15 C.26/74 G.29/65 G.24/39/1/260 C.14/27/2/136 C.0 G.1)
(08-GREEN BAY -3' 37-3, CHICAGO -4 20-17 (OT)...SR: Chicago 91-80-6)
KEY RELEASES
N.Y. JETS by 6 over Houston
DALLAS by 17 over Tampa Bay
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Denver-Cincinnati game
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
Miami 26 - ATLANTA 24—Sparano-coached Dolphins on a 7-1 run as an
underdog, and they enjoy a defensive edge over the rebuilding, youth-laden
Falcon defense. Yes, it takes a special group to control QB “Matty Ice” Ryan,
RB Michael (more Bruiser than Burner these days) Turner, and future Hall of
Fame TE Tony Gonzalez. But Miami appears to have it, having added the likes
of veteran OLB Jason Taylor, CFL pass rusher Cameron Wake, 6-3 rookie CB
Sean Smith, and Raider S escapee Gibril Wilson (129 tackles LY in Oakland).
Rest assured Dolphins have been working on new variations for their Wildcat
formation all summer. Falcs 9-3 “over” last 12 home.
(05-Atlanta -2 17-10...SR: Miami 7-3)
BALTIMORE 23 - Kansas City 6—Time to lay the lumber behind the rockin’
Raven defense, eager to score on its own vs. mostly inept K.C., which tallied
11.5 ppg in the preseason. To make matters worse, QB Matt Cassel goes into
the opening week with a sprained knee, and backups Brodie Croyle (5 of 16 in
preseason finale) & Tyler Thigpen (two ints.) inspire zip-ah-dee-doo-dah
confidence vs. the likes of Haloti Ngata & Ray Lewis. Plus, rookie HC Todd
Haley is installing his new offense (minus just-relieved o.c. Chan Gailey) and has
a shaky OL, and the Chief defense collected a 16-game record-low 10 sacks LY.
RB Ray Rice adding quickness to Baltimore (8-1 when favored LY) attack.
(06-Baltimore +3 20-10...SR: Kansas City 3-1)
Philadelphia 22 - CAROLINA 14—Panthers have covered 8 of their last 11
at home. But they’re battling injuries (RB Jonathan Stewart, DT Maake
Kemoeatu) early in the season, while Philly has added firepower in the form of
WR Jeremy Maclin, RB Shady McCoy, and FB Leonard Weaver to help Brian
Westbrook & DeSean Jackson. No Michael Vick to faze Donovan McNabb’s
rhythm until Week Three. So, if Eagles’ revamped OL can handle Julius
Peppers, Philly should be able to outscore DeAngelo Williams & Steve Smith.
Panthers 11-4 “under” at home.
(06-PHILADELPHIA +3 27-24...SR: Philadelphia 4-2)
UNDER THE TOTAL CINCINNATI 17 - Denver 16—HC Josh
McDaniels and Broncos have been hammered in the media, virtually since the
day he took over. However, is there really that much value in laying points with
Bengal team that is 2-5 its last 7 when favored, has a shaky OL, its two top TEs
on injured reserve, was last in total offense LY, and QB Carson Palmer
sidelined by a gimpy ankle in the preseason? McDaniels says he expects QB
Kyle Orton (finger) to be ready to go, and what if recalcitrant WR Brandon
Marshall is as well? Bengals “under” 15 of last 21.
(06-DENVER -3 24-23...SR: Denver 16-8)
Minnesota 22 - CLEVELAND 13—First choice might be the “under,” as
offensively-challenged Cleveland scored 10 points or fewer nine times LY and
has gone “under” in 15 of its last 21 games. Browns, with their minimal ground
game, will be hard-pressed to dent the Viking defense, but little-known LB Alex
Hall & DT Ahtyba Rubin helping massive Shaun Rogers up front. Brett Favre
can be expected to show a little age and a little rust after limited training camp.
In the end, Adrian Peterson and improved Minny receiving corps (veteran TE
Shiancoe, rookie WR Percy Harvin) should be the edge.
(05-MINNESOTA -4 24-12...SR: Minnesota 10-3)
N.Y. Jets 26 - HOUSTON 20—We usually avoid going with rookie QBs
in their first start, but Mark Sanchez of the Jets is giving all the signs of being in
the Matt Ryan-Joe Flacco mold as a rookie. Moreover, N.Y. HC Rex Ryan and
offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer appear committed to minimizing
the pressure on Sanchez by using a strong ground game, ferocious defense,
and “uncoverable” third-down back Leon Washington. Meanwhile, the Houston
defense had issues at DT, OLB & CB exiting the preseason. And a gimpy QB
(check Matt Schaub’s ankle injury) is not what you want vs. Ryan’s penetrating,
hard-charging schemes. (06-NY JETS -5 26-11...SR: NY Jets 3-0)
INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Jacksonville 23—Jags’ 2008 season was killed by
early decimating OL injuries and subsequent internal discord, while Indy’s poor
3-4 start can be attributed largely to Peyton Manning’s offseason surgery and
missed training camp. Manning now says it took him six weeks LY to find his
regular groove. Now he has to adjust to new HC Jim Caldwell, and new
defensive coordinator Larry Coyer is changing the familiar Tampa Two base
preferred by Tony Dungy, while key S Bob Sanders missed all of preseason with
a bum knee. Colts 6-13 last 19 as chalk. Check status of Jags’ key RB Maurice
Jones-Drew (shin bruise).
(08-Jack. 23-INDY 21...J.25-19 J.48/236 I.19/114 I.15/29/2/211 J.16/22/1/167 J.0 I.0)
(08-Indy 31-JACK. 24...J.28-20 J.27/105 I.18/32 I.29/34/0/364 J.28/41/1/304 I.0 J.0)
(08-Jacksonville +4' 23-21, Indianapolis -6' 31-24...SR: Indianapolis 12-4)
NEW ORLEANS 33 - Detroit 24—With pointspread rising due to quickstriking
Drew Brees offense in the preseason, best play in this one probably the
“over” (Lions 18-6 “over” away; Saints 16-8 “over” at home). But before laying
the tall-cotton, double-digit pointspread, remember that winless Detroit was 6-
2 vs. the number as a visitor LY and is supremely motivated to snap its
ignominious 17-game losing streak. New Orleans still has defensive
shortcomings (including suspended DEs Will Smith & Charles Grant), while
young Lions have big-time WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith to help QBs
Daunte Culpepper & Matthew Stafford.
(08-N. Orl. 42-DET. 7...N.32-15 N.30/181 D.27/129 N.30/40/0/351 D.11/26/2/126 N.1 D.0)
(08-New Orleans -7 42-7...SR: EVEN 9-9-1)
Dallas 27 - TAMPA BAY 10—First game as a head coach of any kind
for 33-year-old Raheem Morris of Tampa Bay. And although veteran Byron
Leftwich has a strong arm to the trigger the Buc offense, NFL sack king
DeMarcus Ware (20 LY) and the Dallas defense know exactly where the tall,
slow Leftwich will be while the QB searches for his non-scary cast of receivers.
And T.B. “O” dealing with recent dismissal of o.c. Jagodzinski. Cowboys happy
to have dynamic RB Felix Jones (missed last 10 games LY) back to help Marion
Barber III, while Bucs missing suspended S Tanard Jackson. Dallas insiders
say the players believe Wade Phillips’ tougher camp TY will pay dividends.
(08-DALLAS 13-T. Bay 9...D.17-15 D.26/70 T.19/48 T.28/44/0/214 D.19/33/0/102 D.0 T.1)
(08-DALLAS -2 13-9...SR: Dallas 10-3)
ARIZONA 27 - San Francisco 24—Recent Super Bowl losers do not have a
favorable record in their ensuing season. Moreover, the Cards lost both
coordinators from their NFC title team, and their poor 0-4 preseason
performance indicated there is plenty of work to be done before Arizona regains
its 2008 plateau. Meanwhile, the Niners were 5-2-1 vs. the spread down the
stretch LY for HC Mike Singletary, and S.F. has added veteran WR Isaac Bruce &
rookie RB Glen Coffee to the offense. With top pick Beanie Wells around to
balance the Cardinal offense, Arizona likely to add to its 20-7 “over” mark as host.
(08-Ariz. 23-S. FRAN. 13...A.18-13 A.39/109 S.20/108 S.14/20/1/183 A.19/30/0/176 A.0 S.4)
(08-ARIZ. 29-S. Fran. 24...A.21-19 S.28/119 A.19/46 A.32/42/0/328 S.19/40/2/217 A.0 S.1)
(08-Arizona -2' 23-13, ARIZONA -9' 29-24...SR: San Francisco 19-16)
NY GIANTS 22 - Washington 10—Yes, there’s no Plaxico as a “safety
blanket” for ultra-millionaire QB Eli Manning. But the G-Men have covered 5 of
their last 6 vs. Washington, with 5 of the last 6 also going “under.” Both those
trends exist primarily because of the Redskins’ offensive limitations and the
Giants’ defensive prowess, with Washington held to 9 ppg its last five visits.
With their excellent OL, RBs in depth, and sackers in numbers (Osi Umenyiora
returns TY, and rookie Clint Sintim eager to join the group), Los Gigantes likely
to extend those streaks. Free-agent DT Albert Haynesworth & top pick OLB
Brian Orakpo should boost Skins’ own pass rush.
(08-GIANTS 16-Wash. 7...N.21-11 N.32/154 W.24/84 N.19/35/1/200 W.15/27/0/125 N.0 W.0)
(08-Giants 23-WASH. 7...N.23-17 N.35/108 W.18/92 N.21/34/1/296 W.24/39/1/228 N.0 W.1)
(08-NY GIANTS -4 16-7, NY Giants -4 23-7...SR: NY Giants 88-62-4)
SEATTLE 30 - St. Louis 17—There’s no question that new HC Steve
Spagnuolo has brought about an attitude adjustment among the Rams, who
have already exhibited greater effort and camaraderie. However, their 3-1
exhibition record is very deceiving, with QB Marc Bulger, WR Donnie Avery, and
the OL trying to overcome with injuries. On defense, run-stuffer Adam Carricker
(shoulder) is through for the season. Seattle’s Jim Mora has his own OL
concerns, but QB Matt Hasselbeck now has clutch WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh as
a reliable go-to target and top draft pick OLB Aaron Curry appears to be a powerful
force on defense. Seahawks have covered last four vs. Rams, and 10 of last 14
overall at Qwest Field.
(08-SEA. 37-St. Lou. 13...Se.24-14 Se.46/245 St.24/65 St.17/30/1/167 Se.12/20/0/162 Se.1 St.1)
(08-Sea. 23-ST. LOU. 20...St.18-16 St.31/131 Se.27/125 St.20/33/0/211 Se.15/25/0/208 Se.2 St.2)
(08-SEATTLE -9 37-13, Seattle -2' 23-20...SR: Seattle 12-10)
*GREEN BAY 31 - Chicago 20—With two of the better young QBs firing
away, certainly can see the Packers extending their 18-7 “over” mark at
Lambeau Field. However, while Aaron Rodgers has been nearly flawless
(71%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) in the preseason, Jay Cutler is still developing that special
rapport with his receivers. Moreover, Bears have been banged up in the
secondary, while G.B.’s new, stunting 3-4 defense has collected eight
interceptions. Chicago RB Forte the top overland force in this game. But Cutler (18
ints. LY in Denver), who loves to take chances, playing his first game at noisy
Lambeau. TV-NBC
(08-G. BAY 37-Chi. 3...G.24-9 G.38/200 C.20/83 G.23/30/1/227 C.17/33/0/156 G.0 C.1)
(08-CHI. 20-G. Bay 17 (OT)...G.20-15 C.26/74 G.29/65 G.24/39/1/260 C.14/27/2/136 C.0 G.1)
(08-GREEN BAY -3' 37-3, CHICAGO -4 20-17 (OT)...SR: Chicago 91-80-6)
LOGICAL APPROACH
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HOUSTON - 4 ½ over N Y Jets - Jets begin season with rookie QB Mark Sanchez running the offense and rookie head coach Rex Ryan roaming the sidelines. Though Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco proved otherwise last season, rookie quarterbacks generally struggle. Houston starts the season with great expectations as both their offense and defense are maturing well. The Texans went 5-1 down the stretch last season to finish 8-8 after hurricane issues wreaked havoc with their early season schedule. They have an explosive offense and an improving defense that should play aggressively against the rookie QB. The Texans are 0-3 lifetime vs the Jets but this is both a new season and a new era. Houston takes the first step in showing they can indeed be a challenger for the Playoffs by defeating a team they should defeat. Houston wins 28-16.
Other Featured NFL Selections
Philadelphia - 1 over CAROLINA - Despite appearing in just one Super Bowl, under coach Andy Reid the Eagles have become an elite team, having now been to the Playoffs 7 times in the last 9 seasons, including 5 trips to the NFC Title game. NFC East teams have dominated fellow conference foes outside their Division in recent seasons. The Eagles are 24-12 ATS vs NFC teams outside the East since 2003, including 3 regular season wins and covers against Carolina. True, in 2003 the Panthers did knock Philly out of the Playoffs. Philly's defense should have success against aging Carolina QB Jake Delhomme while Eagle QB Donovan McNabb has added talent and depth at RB and WR. The Eagles have also excelled on the road with just one losing season away from home over the past 9 seasons. Philadelphia wins 26-17.
Dallas - 6 over TAMPA BAY - Dallas has the talent to still be playing in February. They enter this season without the burden of being Conference or even Division favorites. QB Tony Romo has plenty of supporting targets and may not miss T.O. as much as some expect. Owens dropped many a catchable pass in key spots last season. The defense has shown steady improvement the past two seasons. Tampa is a team in transition with a new coach. They just fired their offensive coordinator as training camp was winding down and they have issues at QB and an unsettled RB situation. The defense is aging and the Buccs allowed a half more yard per rush (4.3) last season than they did a season earlier. It's always tough to lay points on the road early in the season but the Cowboys have too many edges on both sides of the ball to ignore. They do have a tough home game against the Giants on deck so they cannot afford to give away a winnable game here against a team in transition at their most vulnerable time of the season. Dallas wins 24-13.
San Francisco + 6 ½ over ARIZONA - Arizona has a major edge at QB with Kurt Warner but the 49ers have the better rushing attack with Frank Gore. Both teams have defenses that are underrated as each has fared well vs the rush in recent seasons. Arizona could suffer Super Bowl letdown as many runnerups have over this decade. Niner coach Mike Singletary has infused his team with the mental toughness that made him such a great player in his days with the Bears . They made great strides after he took over in the middle of 2008. For the season the weak San Francisco offense improved 74 yards per game over 2007. These teams have generally played very competitive games over the years with 6 of the last 7 and 10 of 13 decided by a TD or less. We should see the line rise to a RD by kickoff and an outright upset would not surprise. San Francisco wins 27-24.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations) PITTSBURGH - 6 over Tennessee [1] Miami + 4 over ATLANTA
CINCINNATI - 4 ½ over Denver Washington + 6 ½ over N Y GIANTS
Chicago + 3 ½ over GREEN BAY NEW ENGLAND - 11 over Buffalo [4]
The Rest (Opinions) Kansas City + 13 over BALTIMORE Minnesota - 4 over CLEVELAND
Jacksonville + 7 over INDIANAPOLIS NEW ORLEANS - 13 over Detroit
SEATTLE - 8 ½ over St Louis San Diego - 9 ½ over OAKLAND [4]
[1] Thursday, September 10
[2] Friday, September 11
[3] at Seattle, WA
[4] Monday, September 14
Best of the NFL Totals (Recommendations) Tennessee/Pittsburgh OVER 35 Miami/Atlanta UNDER 43
Detroit/New Orleans OVER 48 ½ Dallas/Tampa Bay UNDER 39
San Francisco/Arizona OVER 46 Washington/N Y Giants UNDER 37 ½
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HOUSTON - 4 ½ over N Y Jets - Jets begin season with rookie QB Mark Sanchez running the offense and rookie head coach Rex Ryan roaming the sidelines. Though Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco proved otherwise last season, rookie quarterbacks generally struggle. Houston starts the season with great expectations as both their offense and defense are maturing well. The Texans went 5-1 down the stretch last season to finish 8-8 after hurricane issues wreaked havoc with their early season schedule. They have an explosive offense and an improving defense that should play aggressively against the rookie QB. The Texans are 0-3 lifetime vs the Jets but this is both a new season and a new era. Houston takes the first step in showing they can indeed be a challenger for the Playoffs by defeating a team they should defeat. Houston wins 28-16.
Other Featured NFL Selections
Philadelphia - 1 over CAROLINA - Despite appearing in just one Super Bowl, under coach Andy Reid the Eagles have become an elite team, having now been to the Playoffs 7 times in the last 9 seasons, including 5 trips to the NFC Title game. NFC East teams have dominated fellow conference foes outside their Division in recent seasons. The Eagles are 24-12 ATS vs NFC teams outside the East since 2003, including 3 regular season wins and covers against Carolina. True, in 2003 the Panthers did knock Philly out of the Playoffs. Philly's defense should have success against aging Carolina QB Jake Delhomme while Eagle QB Donovan McNabb has added talent and depth at RB and WR. The Eagles have also excelled on the road with just one losing season away from home over the past 9 seasons. Philadelphia wins 26-17.
Dallas - 6 over TAMPA BAY - Dallas has the talent to still be playing in February. They enter this season without the burden of being Conference or even Division favorites. QB Tony Romo has plenty of supporting targets and may not miss T.O. as much as some expect. Owens dropped many a catchable pass in key spots last season. The defense has shown steady improvement the past two seasons. Tampa is a team in transition with a new coach. They just fired their offensive coordinator as training camp was winding down and they have issues at QB and an unsettled RB situation. The defense is aging and the Buccs allowed a half more yard per rush (4.3) last season than they did a season earlier. It's always tough to lay points on the road early in the season but the Cowboys have too many edges on both sides of the ball to ignore. They do have a tough home game against the Giants on deck so they cannot afford to give away a winnable game here against a team in transition at their most vulnerable time of the season. Dallas wins 24-13.
San Francisco + 6 ½ over ARIZONA - Arizona has a major edge at QB with Kurt Warner but the 49ers have the better rushing attack with Frank Gore. Both teams have defenses that are underrated as each has fared well vs the rush in recent seasons. Arizona could suffer Super Bowl letdown as many runnerups have over this decade. Niner coach Mike Singletary has infused his team with the mental toughness that made him such a great player in his days with the Bears . They made great strides after he took over in the middle of 2008. For the season the weak San Francisco offense improved 74 yards per game over 2007. These teams have generally played very competitive games over the years with 6 of the last 7 and 10 of 13 decided by a TD or less. We should see the line rise to a RD by kickoff and an outright upset would not surprise. San Francisco wins 27-24.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations) PITTSBURGH - 6 over Tennessee [1] Miami + 4 over ATLANTA
CINCINNATI - 4 ½ over Denver Washington + 6 ½ over N Y GIANTS
Chicago + 3 ½ over GREEN BAY NEW ENGLAND - 11 over Buffalo [4]
The Rest (Opinions) Kansas City + 13 over BALTIMORE Minnesota - 4 over CLEVELAND
Jacksonville + 7 over INDIANAPOLIS NEW ORLEANS - 13 over Detroit
SEATTLE - 8 ½ over St Louis San Diego - 9 ½ over OAKLAND [4]
[1] Thursday, September 10
[2] Friday, September 11
[3] at Seattle, WA
[4] Monday, September 14
Best of the NFL Totals (Recommendations) Tennessee/Pittsburgh OVER 35 Miami/Atlanta UNDER 43
Detroit/New Orleans OVER 48 ½ Dallas/Tampa Bay UNDER 39
San Francisco/Arizona OVER 46 Washington/N Y Giants UNDER 37 ½
Bob Balfe
Seattle -7.5 over Rams
It again is the same old story with Marc Bulger and the Rams. This offensive line stinks and something happened to the once dominate Bulger. Look for this Seahawks Defense at home to sack and pressure Bulger all day. Matt Hasselback is healthy once again for the Seahawks and a lot of people forget how dominate this guy has been in the past. Look for Seattle to get a big home win.
Seattle -7.5 over Rams
It again is the same old story with Marc Bulger and the Rams. This offensive line stinks and something happened to the once dominate Bulger. Look for this Seahawks Defense at home to sack and pressure Bulger all day. Matt Hasselback is healthy once again for the Seahawks and a lot of people forget how dominate this guy has been in the past. Look for Seattle to get a big home win.
