Chris Jordan Analysis
1000♦ BALTIMORE RAVENS - Boy did I tussle with this one. And not because I was worried whether or not the Ravens would cover this game, but with the rating. I’m a staunch believer of money management, I really am. I don’t chase, I’m more conservative than I should be and I most certainly know how to build a bankroll rather than ruin one. I’m so confident in the Ravens’ chances today, I just can’t let an opportunity slip by right now, not with how much I am down on the Chiefs this season.
Let me start by saying that I think Todd Haley is going to fail miserably as a head coach in Kansas City. It’s not his time, this was not the place for him to come and rebuild and his offensive expertise certainly is not going to mesh with Matt Cassel the way people in BBQ country might believe. Things can’t be going to well, since he fired offensive coordinator Chan Gailey last week, right? He wants complete control, and he gets a chance to show his stuff against one of the toughest defenses in the league.
Granted, he did a great job in getting Arizona to the Super Bowl last season, and almost was part of a championship team, if not for Santonio Holmes’ tremendous catch in the corner of the end zone. But you know, you have to wonder just how great a job he actually did, as the Cardinals put up 23 points – nine of which came on field goals. And, he also had some world-class talent in Phoenix; with the Chiefs, he doesn’t even know if he’s starting Cassel. Quite frankly, if his prize catch during the off-season is a game-time decision, why even start him against a defense that boasts the likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs … seriously? Cassel suffered an MCL strain in the team's third preseason game – two weeks ago – and you have to ask yourself: “Do I want my franchise ticket running around, avoiding this ferocious defense?”
If Cassel can't go, the starter for the Chiefs is probably going to be injury-plagued and inconsistent signal-caller Brodie Croyle, who has gone 0-8 as the Kansas City starter over the past two seasons. For the record, none of Kansas City’s quarterbacks played well during the preseason, in which the Chiefs scored an NFL-worst 42 points and scored just two offensive touchdowns.
I’m sorry, but again, I have to make it worth my while with this pick and go for the gusto with the Ravens, who have made some major changes of their own, in replacing defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, who is now in New York, coaching the Jets. And while this could be conceivably a concern, you have to relax the anxiety since we’re talking about a veteran lineup that has been tight-knit for quite some time. Besides, when you have a guy like Lewis, you know the defense is coming in with the mentality it has something to prove immediately.
Now, that all being said … how do we cover this thing?
I’ve been a fan of Joe Flacco since he was with Delaware, believe it or not. I remember when he led his team to the championship against Appalachian State and made everyone aware of his talents. I called for him to be one of the best quarterbacks that will be drafted. Now the Ravens have a legitimate strong-armed quarterback who has familiar faces lining up wide – Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton – and one of the most rugged tight ends coming off the line in Todd Heap.
Surprisingly said, since it’s a rarity to talk about an offense in Baltimore, the outcome of this game depends solely on the Chiefs’ ability to defend. And there’s a new coach there too, as Haley has Clancy Pendergast trying to implement the popular 3-4 scheme to a defense that finished last in the NFL last season with a paltry 10 sacks. And against the run, the Chiefs finished a miserable 30th in the league a year ago.
Let’s wrap this up, cause the bottom line is this is a Kansas City offense that will fail to move the ball; an offense that no matter who is under center, is going to feel the heat with a relatively ‘green’ offensive line; a Kansas City defense that may have some positive moments but will also see Flacco come up with some big plays at the right time. The points will add up, that’s a given. In fact, I think the Ravens will get close to the 30s.
How’s about a 27-10 final? The Chiefs score late to make it respectable in a 17-point loss.