JIMMY THE GENT
ok im ready to go now for sunday. im sure like most we are all anxious for the nfl season to start, myself included. but there should be some caution flags for the first week of the season. im looking at 4-5 games where i actually found great value on the #'s.
the first game im looking at is actually the first game on the rotation. mia vs atl .
give the points in this game with atlanta. its only 4. to me atlanta has the upper hand in this matchup and have had plenty of time to adjust to the wildcat offense (if its used) miami surprised alot of folks last year. but im tellin ya they are dogmeat this year. they might go 7-9. to me the day of the "dirty bird" are back. atlanta should be a good team this year again and make the playoffs (although they havent had b2b winning seasons since 1948 ) ATLANTA IS 6-0 ATS VS MIAMI L6 after today it will be 7.
ATLANTA -4 WILL BE A 3* PLAY
next in line is denver vs cincy...if i said to u....... "what do u like the over or under in the cincy/denv game " your already thinking OVER. and with the line currently at 42.5 i would say ya definately. the line opened at 44.5, and since 1999 IN THE FIRST WEEK OF NFL GAMES WITH A LINE OF 44> HAVE 16-32 UNDER. since 2003 its 7-22 under! so basically 3 out of 4 go under. so the public has already dropped this down a bit. me personally i like under 42.5 too, and my reasons being that denver doesnt look ready at all and looked horrid in the preseason, no cutler anymore and i dont think orton is the answer. THIS GAME TO ME IS MORE OF A BLOWOUT WIN BY THE BENGALS, they have to come out of the gate in this one, and with palmer back and healthy they should win this by 20+. after this game the bengals are on the road for 3 of 4. so "must wins" can come early in a tough division. the bengals were a top 10 defense team last year believe it or not, and who was the worst ....DENVER i thik they were ranked 31. palmer leads the charge in this one with ease . LAY THE POINTS !! the game opened at pick and the bengals are now -5 , but it wont matter bengals are 4-1 ats vs denver last 5yrs CINCY WINS 31-3
CINCY -5 WILL BE A 5* LOCK.
CINCY UNDER 42.5........2*(have to factor in that the bengals are 8-2 over AS non-division conference favs of 4<)thats the only thing keeping me back. because the public pounded the opening #.
next on the block .....JACKSONVILLE VS INDY. ... tony dungy gone, and starting the year vs a potent jacksonville team getting 7 !! give me the points here. this game falls in the same category as tenn/pitt the other night. jacksonville has always played indy tough and seem to have their # ats . JACKSONVILLE IS 4-1 ATS vs indy IN INDIANAPOLIS. i like jacksonville in this spot. as for the over under i would lean under here as i look for jacksonville to keep the ball on the ground to keep payton in place. both teams are good defensively so look for good clock mngmt. UNDER 44.5 IS THE PLAY
JACKSONVILLE +7 ............3*
JACKSONVILLE UNDER 44.5 ........3*
now for the last 2yrs i have hit my play on the o/u on each time these two have matched up. the line was always in low 40's (to be accurate it was o/u 41 on 3 occasions, and 36 once) but this year the lines maker has it at 37 and that is where it should be. HOWEVER I DO feel this will be a defensive battle, kinda like pitt/tenn. play the under here for 2*...as for the spread im in love with WASHINGTON getting 6.5 as i feel washington will win this outright!!! final score wash 17-14 .
WASH +6.5 ......2*
WASH UNDER 37.5 (BUY THE HOOK) ......3*
OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST ....
seattle -7
chicago +4
kc +12.5