[h=1]NCAA Week 5 Trends & Angles[/h]While we did not match out perfect 7-0 ATS record for our qualifying NCAA Football Trends & Angles plays of Week 3 in Week 4, it was still a successful week that ended up with more winning angles than losing ones. Then again, that is not unusual during the month of September, as that is one of the better months for our contrarian angles with bettors often over-reacting to early-season results.
We have now reached Week 5, meaning that the vast majority of games are now conference games. This is also the final week of September, so combining those two facts we will again specifically look at September conference trends only for the final tine in 2013 before branching out to more general season-long angles next week.
As usual, note that all records are for the last 13 seasons since the 2000 season (September only) plus the first four weeks of this year.
Bet against any September conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (54-30-4, 64.3% ATS): Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. Qualifiers: LSU +3 at Georgia, Florida Atlantic +13½ at Rice.
Play on any September conference road underdog coming off of a road game (91-57-2, 61.5% ATS): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we have often referenced in recent years, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially when the second game is against a conference opponent that they are very familiar with. Qualifiers: Kent State +2½, Mississippi +15, Toledo +2½, Wake Forest +28½.
Bet against September home conference favorites coming off a loss (114-64-6, 64.0% ATS): Bettors often tend to excuse teams coming off of a loss if the team is home, thinking that the home crowd will inspire the team to a better performance and the fact that they are favored must mean they are the better team. What bettors don’t consider is that these teams could just as easily be overvalued, as one loss does not change a team’s power rating much when perhaps it should, at least early in the season. Qualifiers: USC +5½, Florida Atlantic +13½ and Kent State +2½.
Bet on September road teams in conference games coming off an ‘under’ (144-93-8, 60.8% ATS): Many bettors like to bet flashy teams that score boatloads of points, and teams coming off an ‘under’ are often the very antithesis of that. However, these “boring” teams often play good defense also, which naturally gives them more value than the scoring machines that are often overvalued. Qualifiers: Arizona +10, Kent State +2½, Oklahoma State -18, USC +5½, Toledo +2½, UNLV -2½, Utah State -9½ and Wake Forest +28½. Note that Texas A&M is also a play in a game that currently has No Line at Arkansas.
Play on any September conference road underdog coming off of a straight up loss by 25 points or more (49-25, 66.2% ATS): Bettors do not like betting on teams that just got blown out, allowing books to give these teams added value by inflating their lines by a point or two. The fact that they are playing a conference game helps them improve vs. a familiar opponent. This angle carries even more weight early in the year when a blowout loss can simply be an anomaly, as opposed to later in the year when it could be a continuing pattern. Qualifier: Air Force +7 and Kent State +2½.
Bet on September road conference underdogs that were underdogs in their last game (120-86-5, 58.3% ATS): This angle is all about perception, as when bettors see a team is an underdog in two straight games, they assume that team is inferior to the opposition. However, those underdogs are much more familiar with conference opponents so they often improve simply because of better preparation. Qualifiers: Air Force +7, Akron +14½, California +36, Florida Atlantic +13½, Kent State +2½ and Mississippi +15.
Bet on September conference road underdogs coming off a win (148-99-12, 59.9% ATS): This is yet another angle that has to do with perception as bettors that are unaware of the strengths and weaknesses of each team early often rely on the oddsmakers to “tell” them who the better team is and then knee-jerk to the favorite. The problem there is that the lines are the softest early in the season and conference underdogs coming off a win may simply be undervalued at this early stage. Qualifiers: Arizona +10, Colorado +11, LSU +3, Mississippi +15, USC +5½, Toledo +2½, Virginia +5½, Wake Forest +28½ and Wisconsin +7.
We have now reached Week 5, meaning that the vast majority of games are now conference games. This is also the final week of September, so combining those two facts we will again specifically look at September conference trends only for the final tine in 2013 before branching out to more general season-long angles next week.
As usual, note that all records are for the last 13 seasons since the 2000 season (September only) plus the first four weeks of this year.
Bet against any September conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (54-30-4, 64.3% ATS): Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. Qualifiers: LSU +3 at Georgia, Florida Atlantic +13½ at Rice.
Play on any September conference road underdog coming off of a road game (91-57-2, 61.5% ATS): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we have often referenced in recent years, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially when the second game is against a conference opponent that they are very familiar with. Qualifiers: Kent State +2½, Mississippi +15, Toledo +2½, Wake Forest +28½.
Bet against September home conference favorites coming off a loss (114-64-6, 64.0% ATS): Bettors often tend to excuse teams coming off of a loss if the team is home, thinking that the home crowd will inspire the team to a better performance and the fact that they are favored must mean they are the better team. What bettors don’t consider is that these teams could just as easily be overvalued, as one loss does not change a team’s power rating much when perhaps it should, at least early in the season. Qualifiers: USC +5½, Florida Atlantic +13½ and Kent State +2½.
Bet on September road teams in conference games coming off an ‘under’ (144-93-8, 60.8% ATS): Many bettors like to bet flashy teams that score boatloads of points, and teams coming off an ‘under’ are often the very antithesis of that. However, these “boring” teams often play good defense also, which naturally gives them more value than the scoring machines that are often overvalued. Qualifiers: Arizona +10, Kent State +2½, Oklahoma State -18, USC +5½, Toledo +2½, UNLV -2½, Utah State -9½ and Wake Forest +28½. Note that Texas A&M is also a play in a game that currently has No Line at Arkansas.
Play on any September conference road underdog coming off of a straight up loss by 25 points or more (49-25, 66.2% ATS): Bettors do not like betting on teams that just got blown out, allowing books to give these teams added value by inflating their lines by a point or two. The fact that they are playing a conference game helps them improve vs. a familiar opponent. This angle carries even more weight early in the year when a blowout loss can simply be an anomaly, as opposed to later in the year when it could be a continuing pattern. Qualifier: Air Force +7 and Kent State +2½.
Bet on September road conference underdogs that were underdogs in their last game (120-86-5, 58.3% ATS): This angle is all about perception, as when bettors see a team is an underdog in two straight games, they assume that team is inferior to the opposition. However, those underdogs are much more familiar with conference opponents so they often improve simply because of better preparation. Qualifiers: Air Force +7, Akron +14½, California +36, Florida Atlantic +13½, Kent State +2½ and Mississippi +15.
Bet on September conference road underdogs coming off a win (148-99-12, 59.9% ATS): This is yet another angle that has to do with perception as bettors that are unaware of the strengths and weaknesses of each team early often rely on the oddsmakers to “tell” them who the better team is and then knee-jerk to the favorite. The problem there is that the lines are the softest early in the season and conference underdogs coming off a win may simply be undervalued at this early stage. Qualifiers: Arizona +10, Colorado +11, LSU +3, Mississippi +15, USC +5½, Toledo +2½, Virginia +5½, Wake Forest +28½ and Wisconsin +7.
From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER
OKLAHOMA (155) AT NOTRE DAME (156)
Latest Line: Notre Dame +3.5; Total: 50.5
Notre Dame hammered the Sooners in Norman when these two teams met last year. Oklahoma was an 11.5-point favorite, but lost 30-13 as the Irish rolled up 215 rushing yards. Notre Dame is just 0-4-1 ATS over their last five, and the Irish had to gut out a home win over Michigan State last week, managing just 220 yards of offense in a 17-13 win. Oklahoma will stick with Blake Bell at quarterback. He threw for 413 yards and four TDs against Tulsa in their last game, a 51-20 win in which they had 607 yards of offense.
FORECASTER: Notre Dame 33, Oklahoma 22
STATFOX FORECASTER
OKLAHOMA (155) AT NOTRE DAME (156)
Latest Line: Notre Dame +3.5; Total: 50.5
Notre Dame hammered the Sooners in Norman when these two teams met last year. Oklahoma was an 11.5-point favorite, but lost 30-13 as the Irish rolled up 215 rushing yards. Notre Dame is just 0-4-1 ATS over their last five, and the Irish had to gut out a home win over Michigan State last week, managing just 220 yards of offense in a 17-13 win. Oklahoma will stick with Blake Bell at quarterback. He threw for 413 yards and four TDs against Tulsa in their last game, a 51-20 win in which they had 607 yards of offense.
FORECASTER: Notre Dame 33, Oklahoma 22
GamingToday's Consensus Picks September 28, 2013 5:50 AM by GT Staff
NCAA Football
118 Buffalo pk: No way that the Huskies are up for this one.
122 NC State -24: UNLV beat Central Michigan. Need we say more?
137 Iowa -1½: Iowa began the week as a 3 point underdog.
150 Arizona State -3½: The money came hard on USC which makes us Devilish in the desert.
174 Central Florida +7: Sandwich game for Gamecocks thinking SEC. UCF good enough to win at Penn State.
NCAA Football
118 Buffalo pk: No way that the Huskies are up for this one.
122 NC State -24: UNLV beat Central Michigan. Need we say more?
137 Iowa -1½: Iowa began the week as a 3 point underdog.
150 Arizona State -3½: The money came hard on USC which makes us Devilish in the desert.
174 Central Florida +7: Sandwich game for Gamecocks thinking SEC. UCF good enough to win at Penn State.
