Ben Burns' 10* NCAAF BEST BET! (BIG TV WINNER!) Saturday
I'm playing on ARKANSAS. Its true that the Aggies were very good on the road last year. However, this is a new year and this is their first road game of the season. I expect them to have their hands full. The Razorbacks haven't forgotten that the Aggies embarrassed them 58-10 last year. I expect them to show up an extremely motivated team. True the Razorbacks remain young at a few key positions. They aren't without talent though. They've also got a much better coach this year though and the secondary is more experienced - they should be able to deal with Manziel somewhat more effectively. Of course, stopping Manziel completely is no easy task. The best way to limit him is to keep him on the sidelines. That goes hand-in-hand with the ball control type of offense that Bielema wants from Arkansas. Not only does Bielema's crew want to dominate time of possession, they'll be up against an Aggie run defense that should allow them to do just that. In fact, you might be surprised to learn that the Aggies are giving up 218 rushing yards per game, good for 106th in the country. Opposing backs are averaging 5.9 yards per run against them. Even Rice ran for more than 300 yards against them. Although they ran for only 101 yards last week, the Razorbacks ran for 292, 333 and 258 yards in their first three games. While the Aggies are off a big win, note that they had more than 100 yards of penalties and missed three extra point attempts. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 10*
I'm playing on ARKANSAS. Its true that the Aggies were very good on the road last year. However, this is a new year and this is their first road game of the season. I expect them to have their hands full. The Razorbacks haven't forgotten that the Aggies embarrassed them 58-10 last year. I expect them to show up an extremely motivated team. True the Razorbacks remain young at a few key positions. They aren't without talent though. They've also got a much better coach this year though and the secondary is more experienced - they should be able to deal with Manziel somewhat more effectively. Of course, stopping Manziel completely is no easy task. The best way to limit him is to keep him on the sidelines. That goes hand-in-hand with the ball control type of offense that Bielema wants from Arkansas. Not only does Bielema's crew want to dominate time of possession, they'll be up against an Aggie run defense that should allow them to do just that. In fact, you might be surprised to learn that the Aggies are giving up 218 rushing yards per game, good for 106th in the country. Opposing backs are averaging 5.9 yards per run against them. Even Rice ran for more than 300 yards against them. Although they ran for only 101 yards last week, the Razorbacks ran for 292, 333 and 258 yards in their first three games. While the Aggies are off a big win, note that they had more than 100 yards of penalties and missed three extra point attempts. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 10*
Larry Ness' 10* Conference G.O.Y. (off 7-1 CFB Saturday)
My 10* MWC Game of the Year is on New Mexico at 8:00 ET.
The 2013 season is Bobby Hauck’s fourth as UNLV’s head coach and he entered the year with a pathetic 6-32 record. How many of those six wins have come on the road? The answer is ZERO! In fact, the Rebels entered the current season having lost 22 straight road games. Maybe even worse has been the team's lack of competitiveness in those games, reflected by the team’s 2-18-2 ATS record! That said, there was some good news surrounding Rebel football as the 2013 season opened. UNLV returned more starters than any program in the MWC, a total of nine both offensively and defensively.
QB Nick Sherry would have easily set the MWC freshman record for passing yards if not for some injuries, as he finished with 2,544 yards, ranking him fourth in league history and seventh on the school's single-season list for any signal-caller, regardless of class. His 16 passing TDs were the most by any UNLV player since 2008. Both Devante Davis (61 catches) and Marcus Sullivan (55 catches) return plus so does the school's all-time leading rusher, Tim Cornett, who ran for 1,232 yards (5.1 YPC) and seven TDs a year ago.
UNLV opened the season at Minnesota and while the Rebels outgained the Gophers 419-320 in yards, the team's “road demons” won out. UNLV allowed a 98-yard KO return TD, a 51-yard blocked FG for a TD and an 89-yard INT return for a TD in a 51-23 loss. Make that 23 straight road losses and a 2-19-2 ATS mark. During the team's long road losing skein, UNLV has allowed a WHOPPING 43.4 PPG. The Rebels returned home in the season's second week and hosted Arizona. The Wildcats obliterated the Rebels, beating them 58-13 while running for 397 yards.
UNLV’ s season almost came apart the following Saturday at home vs Central Michigan, when the Rebels fell behind 21-0 but INLV got on the board right before the end of the half and then outscored the Chippewas 24-0 in the second half for a 31-21 win. Herring, as senior QB pushed aside by Sherry last year and to open TY, went 24-of-28 for 266 yards (3 TDs) in that game and also led UNLV to a 38-7 home win over Western Illinois last weekend (he was 14-of-20 for 140 yards with one TD, no INTs and 57 rushing yards), giving Hauck back-to-back wins at UNLV for the first time.
So that sets the stage, as UNLV takes its 23-game road losing streak to Las Cruces, where the Rebels last won on the road, 34-17 back on 10/24/09. Hard to believe but true, is currently a small road favorite. Is this really the spot UNLV will not only win a THIRD straight game but also break that ‘ugly’ road losing streak? I just can’t ‘buy in!’ The New Mexico team UNLV beat in 2009 would go 1-11 that season, as well as 1-11 in 2010 and 2011. Former Notre Dame head coach Bob Davie gave up his cushy TV job to take over the Lobo program in 2012 and New Mexico went 4-9 last season.
I agree that a closer look reveals that New Mexico’s wins came over Southern (an FCS school), New Mexico St (1-11), Texas State (4-8) and Hawaii (3-9). New Mexico is an unbalanced team, as last year it averaged 301 YPG on the ground and just 69 yards thru the air and it’s déjà vu all over again in 2013. New Mexico, led by the MWC’s leading rusher, Kasey Carrier (122.3 YPG on 5.4 YPC), is averaging 267.0 YPG on the ground and only 76.3 YPG through the air.
However, let’s not ignore that New Mexico actually scored 42 points in an OT win at UTEP and 27 points when it was blown out at Piit, 49-27. New Mexico had last week off to prepare and one HAS to believe the Lobos want NO part of being the team that UNLV beats to end that road losing streak, especially after already owning the distinction of being the the last team UNLV beat away from Las Vegas. UNLV fans will tell you that it’s different this year and that the Rebels are capable of winning away from home vs a team like New Mexico.
However, those same people were ‘singing that song’ last year when UNLV traveled to Colorado St as a one-point favorite and lost 33-11 plus went to Hawaii as a three-point choice and lost, 48-10! I agree that the Rebels have shown better this year (except when outclassed against Arizona) but the Rebels have still displayed an inability to stop opponents from converting on third down (30-of-66) and in the red zone (13-of-16). I’m talking the points!
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* CFB Total G.O.M-Sep (21-9 since 2011)
My 10* September CFB Total G.O.M. is on San Diego St/New Mex St Over at 8:00 ET.
It’s not very often (if ever) that you will see an 0-3 team play on the road, yet open as a 17-point favorite. However, that’s EXACTLY the case this Saturday night, as 0-3 San Diego St visits Las Cruces, New Mexico, where it will take on New Mexico St Rocky Long, a New Mexico alum and former New Mexico head coach, has done an excellent job in San Diego, taking over after Brady Hoke left SDSU “high and dry” to return to Michigan after a two-year ‘layover’ in Southern California. Long has led the Aztecs to a 17-9 overall record the last two seasons, leading SDSU to bowl games (albeit losses) in each year.
However, Long’s team was just plain AWFUL in 2013’s first two games. The Aztecs opened with a 40-19 home loss to Eastern Illinois, a game in which the Panthers gained 533 yards with QB Garoppolo throwing for 361 with three TDs. Rocky Long was clearly upset after that game. "That's as bad as performance as I've ever been around, but you've got to give them (Eastern Illinois a lot of credit. They came and they played extremely well and didn't make many mistakes. We played poorly and made every mistake in the book. Give up long touchdown passes, turn the ball over I think five times on offense, were in scoring position, we have to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns. We get a punt blocked, we get a punt turned for a touchdown against us."
SDSU then traveled to Columbus, Ohio for its second game and lost, 42-7 (outgained 445-280). The Aztecs then had a bye week and last Saturday, opened a 27-14 lead at home against Oregon St, only to lose 34-30. However, it was easily their best effort of the season, covering as seven-point home dog. Quinn Kaehler stepped in at QB for starter Dingwell early in the Ohio St game, after he was 0-5 with an INT (Dingwell was BRUTAL vs Eastern Illinois). Kaehler was 22-of-36 for 216 yards (1 TD / 1 INT) vs Ohio St and 16-of-25 for 251 yards vs Oregon St (2 TDs / 2 INTs). Just a year removed from finishing 20th in the nation with 221 yards rushing per game, SDSU is averaging 86.7 YPG on 2.5 YPC.
So why am I going over? Just take a look at New Mexico St and what it’s done since opening the 2012 season with a 49-19 home win over Sacramento. St. The Aggies finished last year by losing 11 straight games, allowing 41.3 PPG. NMSU has opened the 2013 season 0-4 SU and ATS (its 15 straight losses matches Southern Miss for CFB’s longest active losing streak), allowing a nation’s-worst 50.2 PPG and 605.5 YPG. It’s hard to make up numbers like this! New Mexico St scored exactly 14 points in FOUR of its five home games last year (I’m NOT counting the Sacramento St game) and in home losses to Minnesota and UTEP to open 2013, has been able to put up 21 points in each one.
San Diego St ‘gets well’ in this one and will take out its early frustrations on the Aggies (no mercy here). Meanwhile, there is no reason to think the Aggies won’t score some against San Diego St, a team which is allowing 38.7 PPG, including 40 points (on 533 yards!) against an FCS school like Eastern Illinois, at home no less! This one is Goin’ Over!
My 10* MWC Game of the Year is on New Mexico at 8:00 ET.
The 2013 season is Bobby Hauck’s fourth as UNLV’s head coach and he entered the year with a pathetic 6-32 record. How many of those six wins have come on the road? The answer is ZERO! In fact, the Rebels entered the current season having lost 22 straight road games. Maybe even worse has been the team's lack of competitiveness in those games, reflected by the team’s 2-18-2 ATS record! That said, there was some good news surrounding Rebel football as the 2013 season opened. UNLV returned more starters than any program in the MWC, a total of nine both offensively and defensively.
QB Nick Sherry would have easily set the MWC freshman record for passing yards if not for some injuries, as he finished with 2,544 yards, ranking him fourth in league history and seventh on the school's single-season list for any signal-caller, regardless of class. His 16 passing TDs were the most by any UNLV player since 2008. Both Devante Davis (61 catches) and Marcus Sullivan (55 catches) return plus so does the school's all-time leading rusher, Tim Cornett, who ran for 1,232 yards (5.1 YPC) and seven TDs a year ago.
UNLV opened the season at Minnesota and while the Rebels outgained the Gophers 419-320 in yards, the team's “road demons” won out. UNLV allowed a 98-yard KO return TD, a 51-yard blocked FG for a TD and an 89-yard INT return for a TD in a 51-23 loss. Make that 23 straight road losses and a 2-19-2 ATS mark. During the team's long road losing skein, UNLV has allowed a WHOPPING 43.4 PPG. The Rebels returned home in the season's second week and hosted Arizona. The Wildcats obliterated the Rebels, beating them 58-13 while running for 397 yards.
UNLV’ s season almost came apart the following Saturday at home vs Central Michigan, when the Rebels fell behind 21-0 but INLV got on the board right before the end of the half and then outscored the Chippewas 24-0 in the second half for a 31-21 win. Herring, as senior QB pushed aside by Sherry last year and to open TY, went 24-of-28 for 266 yards (3 TDs) in that game and also led UNLV to a 38-7 home win over Western Illinois last weekend (he was 14-of-20 for 140 yards with one TD, no INTs and 57 rushing yards), giving Hauck back-to-back wins at UNLV for the first time.
So that sets the stage, as UNLV takes its 23-game road losing streak to Las Cruces, where the Rebels last won on the road, 34-17 back on 10/24/09. Hard to believe but true, is currently a small road favorite. Is this really the spot UNLV will not only win a THIRD straight game but also break that ‘ugly’ road losing streak? I just can’t ‘buy in!’ The New Mexico team UNLV beat in 2009 would go 1-11 that season, as well as 1-11 in 2010 and 2011. Former Notre Dame head coach Bob Davie gave up his cushy TV job to take over the Lobo program in 2012 and New Mexico went 4-9 last season.
I agree that a closer look reveals that New Mexico’s wins came over Southern (an FCS school), New Mexico St (1-11), Texas State (4-8) and Hawaii (3-9). New Mexico is an unbalanced team, as last year it averaged 301 YPG on the ground and just 69 yards thru the air and it’s déjà vu all over again in 2013. New Mexico, led by the MWC’s leading rusher, Kasey Carrier (122.3 YPG on 5.4 YPC), is averaging 267.0 YPG on the ground and only 76.3 YPG through the air.
However, let’s not ignore that New Mexico actually scored 42 points in an OT win at UTEP and 27 points when it was blown out at Piit, 49-27. New Mexico had last week off to prepare and one HAS to believe the Lobos want NO part of being the team that UNLV beats to end that road losing streak, especially after already owning the distinction of being the the last team UNLV beat away from Las Vegas. UNLV fans will tell you that it’s different this year and that the Rebels are capable of winning away from home vs a team like New Mexico.
However, those same people were ‘singing that song’ last year when UNLV traveled to Colorado St as a one-point favorite and lost 33-11 plus went to Hawaii as a three-point choice and lost, 48-10! I agree that the Rebels have shown better this year (except when outclassed against Arizona) but the Rebels have still displayed an inability to stop opponents from converting on third down (30-of-66) and in the red zone (13-of-16). I’m talking the points!
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* CFB Total G.O.M-Sep (21-9 since 2011)
My 10* September CFB Total G.O.M. is on San Diego St/New Mex St Over at 8:00 ET.
It’s not very often (if ever) that you will see an 0-3 team play on the road, yet open as a 17-point favorite. However, that’s EXACTLY the case this Saturday night, as 0-3 San Diego St visits Las Cruces, New Mexico, where it will take on New Mexico St Rocky Long, a New Mexico alum and former New Mexico head coach, has done an excellent job in San Diego, taking over after Brady Hoke left SDSU “high and dry” to return to Michigan after a two-year ‘layover’ in Southern California. Long has led the Aztecs to a 17-9 overall record the last two seasons, leading SDSU to bowl games (albeit losses) in each year.
However, Long’s team was just plain AWFUL in 2013’s first two games. The Aztecs opened with a 40-19 home loss to Eastern Illinois, a game in which the Panthers gained 533 yards with QB Garoppolo throwing for 361 with three TDs. Rocky Long was clearly upset after that game. "That's as bad as performance as I've ever been around, but you've got to give them (Eastern Illinois a lot of credit. They came and they played extremely well and didn't make many mistakes. We played poorly and made every mistake in the book. Give up long touchdown passes, turn the ball over I think five times on offense, were in scoring position, we have to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns. We get a punt blocked, we get a punt turned for a touchdown against us."
SDSU then traveled to Columbus, Ohio for its second game and lost, 42-7 (outgained 445-280). The Aztecs then had a bye week and last Saturday, opened a 27-14 lead at home against Oregon St, only to lose 34-30. However, it was easily their best effort of the season, covering as seven-point home dog. Quinn Kaehler stepped in at QB for starter Dingwell early in the Ohio St game, after he was 0-5 with an INT (Dingwell was BRUTAL vs Eastern Illinois). Kaehler was 22-of-36 for 216 yards (1 TD / 1 INT) vs Ohio St and 16-of-25 for 251 yards vs Oregon St (2 TDs / 2 INTs). Just a year removed from finishing 20th in the nation with 221 yards rushing per game, SDSU is averaging 86.7 YPG on 2.5 YPC.
So why am I going over? Just take a look at New Mexico St and what it’s done since opening the 2012 season with a 49-19 home win over Sacramento. St. The Aggies finished last year by losing 11 straight games, allowing 41.3 PPG. NMSU has opened the 2013 season 0-4 SU and ATS (its 15 straight losses matches Southern Miss for CFB’s longest active losing streak), allowing a nation’s-worst 50.2 PPG and 605.5 YPG. It’s hard to make up numbers like this! New Mexico St scored exactly 14 points in FOUR of its five home games last year (I’m NOT counting the Sacramento St game) and in home losses to Minnesota and UTEP to open 2013, has been able to put up 21 points in each one.
San Diego St ‘gets well’ in this one and will take out its early frustrations on the Aggies (no mercy here). Meanwhile, there is no reason to think the Aggies won’t score some against San Diego St, a team which is allowing 38.7 PPG, including 40 points (on 533 yards!) against an FCS school like Eastern Illinois, at home no less! This one is Goin’ Over!
