Saturday's NFL Week 1 Preseason Betting Primer
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-1, 39.5)
Browns head coach Mike Pettine isn't telling anyone about how he'll divide up the playing time - not even the players - but it's expected that Brian Hoyer and the first-team offense will see two or three series. Much of the offensive focus will be on rookie running back Terrance West, who is expected to see plenty of playing time as he looks to solidify the backup role behind Ben Tate.
The Lions sport a new-look offense, and will have it on display against Cleveland - though it may not include wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who is questionable for the exhibition opener. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi wouldn't say how much time quarterback Matthew Stafford would see, suggesting that would be dictated by the flow of the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-2.5, 37)
The Steelers had a dreadful preseason a year ago, dropping all four games - including an 18-13 decision to the Giants in their opener nearly a year to the day before their next exhibition matchup. As it was a year ago, the early focus will be on quarterbacks Bruce Gradkowski and Landry Jones, who will both get a chance Saturday to make their case for serving as Ben Roethlisberger's backup.
Even though the Giants are playing their second game of the exhibition season, head coach Tom Coughlin doesn't see the first-team offense playing much more than it did in the opener against the Buffalo Bills. Head coach Tom Coughlin said he's still in the process of evaluating the rest of the roster, which means that quarterback Eli Manning and Co. may only see slightly more than the 15 snaps it had against Buffalo.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2, 38)
Packers head coach Mike McCarthy expects to give work to all four of his quarterbacks currently in camp against the Titans, so don't expect Aaron Rodgers to see more than one or two series of action. Seven players still in camp didn't make the trip to Tennessee due to injury, including safety Morgan Burnett (oblique strain) and tight end Colt Lyerla (knee sprain).
Head coach Ken Whisenhunt has said both the offensive and defensive starters should expect to play 12-15 snaps against the Packers. With the Titans having emerged from training camp relatively healthy, there should be several areas of focus Saturday - including battles for starting cornerback spots and the duel between Charlie Whitehurst and rookie Zach Mettenberger for the No. 2 quarterback job.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 37.5)
With No. 1 quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick expected to be limited in the opener, Case Keenum and rookie Tom Savage will see the majority of reps over the final 3 1/2 quarters - and for Keenum, the opportunity is there to perhaps seize the starting role. With wide receiver Andre Johnson sitting out with a hamstring injury, the focus will be on third-year receiver DeVier Posey, who will start in his place.
Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians believes the starters on both sides of the ball will see about 15 snaps, though it's unlikely to be any more than that with nearly the entire Arizona roster healthy and available to play. Arizona had a successful exhibition campaign a year ago, rolling to a 3-1 record after going just 1-4 a season earlier.
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-1, 39.5)
Browns head coach Mike Pettine isn't telling anyone about how he'll divide up the playing time - not even the players - but it's expected that Brian Hoyer and the first-team offense will see two or three series. Much of the offensive focus will be on rookie running back Terrance West, who is expected to see plenty of playing time as he looks to solidify the backup role behind Ben Tate.
The Lions sport a new-look offense, and will have it on display against Cleveland - though it may not include wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who is questionable for the exhibition opener. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi wouldn't say how much time quarterback Matthew Stafford would see, suggesting that would be dictated by the flow of the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-2.5, 37)
The Steelers had a dreadful preseason a year ago, dropping all four games - including an 18-13 decision to the Giants in their opener nearly a year to the day before their next exhibition matchup. As it was a year ago, the early focus will be on quarterbacks Bruce Gradkowski and Landry Jones, who will both get a chance Saturday to make their case for serving as Ben Roethlisberger's backup.
Even though the Giants are playing their second game of the exhibition season, head coach Tom Coughlin doesn't see the first-team offense playing much more than it did in the opener against the Buffalo Bills. Head coach Tom Coughlin said he's still in the process of evaluating the rest of the roster, which means that quarterback Eli Manning and Co. may only see slightly more than the 15 snaps it had against Buffalo.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2, 38)
Packers head coach Mike McCarthy expects to give work to all four of his quarterbacks currently in camp against the Titans, so don't expect Aaron Rodgers to see more than one or two series of action. Seven players still in camp didn't make the trip to Tennessee due to injury, including safety Morgan Burnett (oblique strain) and tight end Colt Lyerla (knee sprain).
Head coach Ken Whisenhunt has said both the offensive and defensive starters should expect to play 12-15 snaps against the Packers. With the Titans having emerged from training camp relatively healthy, there should be several areas of focus Saturday - including battles for starting cornerback spots and the duel between Charlie Whitehurst and rookie Zach Mettenberger for the No. 2 quarterback job.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 37.5)
With No. 1 quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick expected to be limited in the opener, Case Keenum and rookie Tom Savage will see the majority of reps over the final 3 1/2 quarters - and for Keenum, the opportunity is there to perhaps seize the starting role. With wide receiver Andre Johnson sitting out with a hamstring injury, the focus will be on third-year receiver DeVier Posey, who will start in his place.
Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians believes the starters on both sides of the ball will see about 15 snaps, though it's unlikely to be any more than that with nearly the entire Arizona roster healthy and available to play. Arizona had a successful exhibition campaign a year ago, rolling to a 3-1 record after going just 1-4 a season earlier.
Saturday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Week 1 Recap: The home teams have won 10 of the first 12 preseason contests, including a 6-0 mark on Thursday. Last night, the Bills and Saints were the only road teams to win, while the 'over' went 3-3 on Friday. The 'under' cashed in five of six games on Thursday night, while eight teams so far this preseason have scored 10 points or less.
Browns at Lions (-1, 39½)
2013 Preseason Records: CLE (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS), DET (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Browns (-1 ½) beat Lions, 24-6 in 2013
QB Rotations:
CLE - B. Hoyer, J. Manziel*, T. Thigpen, C. Shaw*
DET - M. Stafford, K. Moore, D. Orlovsky, J. Franklin*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - The Browns are 4-0 SU/ATS in preseason openers last four years, and 2-0 SU/ATS last two games in this preseason series. The Lions are 2-4 SU/ATS pin reseason openers as either a dog or favorite of less than 3 points. With Caldwell 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS during the preseason, including 0-3 SU/ATS in opening games, and the Browns in a heated quarterback battle for the starting job, we recommend a play on Cleveland.
Steelers at Giants (-2½, 37)
2013 Preseason Records: PIT (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), NYG (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Giants (+2 ½) beat Steelers, 18-13 in 2013
QB Rotations:
PIT - B. Roethlisberger, B. Gradkowski, L. Jones, B. Kay*
NYG - E. Manning, R. Nassib, C. Painter
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Kevin Rogers - The Giants are just 2-4-1 ATS in their past seven preseason games in the favorite role, while coming off a three-point win over the Bills in the Hall of Fame Game. The Steelers were winless in the preseason last year, but I expect them to put together a better effort to kick off this exhibition campiagn.
Packers at Titans (-1½, 38)
2013 Preseason Records: GB (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), TEN (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Titans (-3 ½) beat Packers, 27-13 in 2009
QB Rotations:
GB - A. Rodgers, M. Flynn, S. Tolzien, C. Rettig*
TEN - J. Locker, C. Whitehurst, T. Wilson, Z. Mettenberger*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: ASA - This is a much more important game for the host Titans. After winning only three games last year, new head coach Ken Whisenhunt wants this win. They are playing a high profile team in front of the home fans. The Packers are a playoff and Super Bowl contender. They know what they have. They’ve been in the same situation the last few years and haven’t taken the pre-season all that seriously with a 3-5 SU record the last two seasons. Last year, Green Bay was held to 10 points or less in 3 of their 4 pre-season tilts. They don’t care. Tennessee is trying to build some confidence under a new coach.
Texans at Cardinals (-2, 37½)
2013 Preseason Records: HOU (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), ARZ (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Cardinals (+2 ½) beat Texans, 19-16 in 2010
QB Rotations:
HOU - R. Fitzpatrick, C. Keenum, T. Savage*
ARZ - C. Palmer, D. Stanton, R. Lindley, L. Thomas*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - With all the changes going on in Houston, I feel it will take new head coach Bill O'Brien a few preseason games to start to see things run smoothly. So I can see the Texans running into problems here against a solid Arizona squad that won 3 of their 5 preseasons games a year ago under head coach Bruce Arians.
By Kevin Rogers
Week 1 Recap: The home teams have won 10 of the first 12 preseason contests, including a 6-0 mark on Thursday. Last night, the Bills and Saints were the only road teams to win, while the 'over' went 3-3 on Friday. The 'under' cashed in five of six games on Thursday night, while eight teams so far this preseason have scored 10 points or less.
Browns at Lions (-1, 39½)
2013 Preseason Records: CLE (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS), DET (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Browns (-1 ½) beat Lions, 24-6 in 2013
QB Rotations:
CLE - B. Hoyer, J. Manziel*, T. Thigpen, C. Shaw*
DET - M. Stafford, K. Moore, D. Orlovsky, J. Franklin*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - The Browns are 4-0 SU/ATS in preseason openers last four years, and 2-0 SU/ATS last two games in this preseason series. The Lions are 2-4 SU/ATS pin reseason openers as either a dog or favorite of less than 3 points. With Caldwell 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS during the preseason, including 0-3 SU/ATS in opening games, and the Browns in a heated quarterback battle for the starting job, we recommend a play on Cleveland.
Steelers at Giants (-2½, 37)
2013 Preseason Records: PIT (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), NYG (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Giants (+2 ½) beat Steelers, 18-13 in 2013
QB Rotations:
PIT - B. Roethlisberger, B. Gradkowski, L. Jones, B. Kay*
NYG - E. Manning, R. Nassib, C. Painter
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Kevin Rogers - The Giants are just 2-4-1 ATS in their past seven preseason games in the favorite role, while coming off a three-point win over the Bills in the Hall of Fame Game. The Steelers were winless in the preseason last year, but I expect them to put together a better effort to kick off this exhibition campiagn.
Packers at Titans (-1½, 38)
2013 Preseason Records: GB (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), TEN (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Titans (-3 ½) beat Packers, 27-13 in 2009
QB Rotations:
GB - A. Rodgers, M. Flynn, S. Tolzien, C. Rettig*
TEN - J. Locker, C. Whitehurst, T. Wilson, Z. Mettenberger*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: ASA - This is a much more important game for the host Titans. After winning only three games last year, new head coach Ken Whisenhunt wants this win. They are playing a high profile team in front of the home fans. The Packers are a playoff and Super Bowl contender. They know what they have. They’ve been in the same situation the last few years and haven’t taken the pre-season all that seriously with a 3-5 SU record the last two seasons. Last year, Green Bay was held to 10 points or less in 3 of their 4 pre-season tilts. They don’t care. Tennessee is trying to build some confidence under a new coach.
Texans at Cardinals (-2, 37½)
2013 Preseason Records: HOU (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), ARZ (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Cardinals (+2 ½) beat Texans, 19-16 in 2010
QB Rotations:
HOU - R. Fitzpatrick, C. Keenum, T. Savage*
ARZ - C. Palmer, D. Stanton, R. Lindley, L. Thomas*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - With all the changes going on in Houston, I feel it will take new head coach Bill O'Brien a few preseason games to start to see things run smoothly. So I can see the Texans running into problems here against a solid Arizona squad that won 3 of their 5 preseasons games a year ago under head coach Bruce Arians.
NFL Preseason Point Spreads and Picks
By: Mike Wilkening
Saturday night in Detroit, a certain Browns rookie quarterback gets to remind us why he’s nicknamed “Football” and not “Social Media Superstar.”
And if you’re quick about it, you might be able to sneak in dinner between kickoff and Cleveland’s Johnny Manziel making his NFL debut against the Lions.
Veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer will get the start at Detroit in the first preseason game for both clubs (7:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network). Manziel, the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner and one of the Browns’ first-round picks, is likely to enter the game with the second-team offense, coach Mike Pettine said Thursday.
As of Friday, Detroit is a 1-point favorite at most Las Vegas bet shops, with a total of about 39.5.
Pettine noted he’s been “vague” with the quarterbacks on the number of snaps they will take in an effort to ensure they’re ready for anything. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Hoyer got multiple first-team series, considering the club wants to make a decision on a starter sooner than later.
Pettine is the Browns’ third new head coach in four seasons. This is his first NFL head coaching job. In short, there’s plenty of uncertainty when it comes to Cleveland, which is par for the course.
The Lions also have a new head coach, with Jim Caldwell replacing Jim Schwartz. In his three seasons as the Colts’ coach, Indianapolis was 2-10 straight-up in preseason games, losing all three openers. However, this includes the 2011 exhibition slate, when Peyton Manning was out with a neck injury.
While the Lions have no QB controversy, they do have a few areas worth studying in the opener. The club has changed schemes on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Matthew Stafford’s play in Joe Lombardi’s offense will be interesting to watch, even if it’s only for a couple series early in the game.
But the main course is Manziel. Get a to-go bag for your entrée, ask for the check and start the car. It’s Johnny Football time.
The Linemakers’ lean: The Browns may have the worst QB rotation of any team in the NFL, while the Lions will put a very formidable group on the field Saturday night. Jim Caldwell’s preseason record in Indy surely doesn’t impress, but he’ll look to get off on the right foot in Detroit. We’ll lay the short price with Detroit and also go OVER the total with the expectations that both teams will want to throw the ball.
Also on Saturday's card ...
Here’s an overview of the other three exhibition games to be played Saturday night, with a selection from the boys in Las Vegas on the Steelers-Giants game. Spreads and totals are the Vegas consensus as of Friday. For updated lines, visit our live odds board.
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (-2.5, 37)
The Steelers have lost their last three exhibition openers, and they are a mere 1-6-1 ATS over the last two seasons, including an 0-4 mark in 2013.
Giants coach Tom Coughlin has indicated his starters will play about as much as they did in Sunday’s Hall of Fame game vs. Buffalo. Quarterback Eli Manning took 20 snaps vs. Buffalo, with the Giants posting drives of three, five and 12 plays in succession. But remember that quality, not quantity, can be a determining factor when it comes to first-team reps in the preseason.
The Linemakers’ lean: With the Giants having already won in the preseason, this game figures to be more meaningful for the Steelers. Also, we give the edge in QB rotation to Pittsburgh. Watch for this line to hit New York -3 or higher, and wait for a number to your liking before firing on the Steelers.
Green Bay at Tennessee (-1.5, 38)
In recent preseason debuts, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played one or two series. That figures to be the blueprint Saturday. Green Bay’s backup QB play is stronger than a season ago, with Matt Flynn a good fit as the second-stringer and Scott Tolzien a capable third option.
New Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt led Arizona to a 4-2 straight-up mark in exhibition debuts from 2007-2012. He told reporters this week he hadn’t decided how long he would play the club’s first-stringers. But it’s probably safe to assume the starters aren’t going to get much run.
Houston at Arizona (-2.5, 37.5)
The Cardinals were 3-1 straight-up and against the number in the 2013 preseason slate. Starting quarterback Carson Palmer played three series in the exhibition opener a season ago, exiting after throwing a TD pass on the first play of the final drive.
New Texans coach Bill O’Brien hasn’t gone into great detail on the team’s playing time plans for Saturday. However, he has indicated tailback Arian Foster and receiver Andre Johnson will be held out. Also, reserve quarterbacks Tom Savage and Case Keenum will each play with the second-team offense, O’Brien said.
By: Mike Wilkening
Saturday night in Detroit, a certain Browns rookie quarterback gets to remind us why he’s nicknamed “Football” and not “Social Media Superstar.”
And if you’re quick about it, you might be able to sneak in dinner between kickoff and Cleveland’s Johnny Manziel making his NFL debut against the Lions.
Veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer will get the start at Detroit in the first preseason game for both clubs (7:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network). Manziel, the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner and one of the Browns’ first-round picks, is likely to enter the game with the second-team offense, coach Mike Pettine said Thursday.
As of Friday, Detroit is a 1-point favorite at most Las Vegas bet shops, with a total of about 39.5.
Pettine noted he’s been “vague” with the quarterbacks on the number of snaps they will take in an effort to ensure they’re ready for anything. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Hoyer got multiple first-team series, considering the club wants to make a decision on a starter sooner than later.
Pettine is the Browns’ third new head coach in four seasons. This is his first NFL head coaching job. In short, there’s plenty of uncertainty when it comes to Cleveland, which is par for the course.
The Lions also have a new head coach, with Jim Caldwell replacing Jim Schwartz. In his three seasons as the Colts’ coach, Indianapolis was 2-10 straight-up in preseason games, losing all three openers. However, this includes the 2011 exhibition slate, when Peyton Manning was out with a neck injury.
While the Lions have no QB controversy, they do have a few areas worth studying in the opener. The club has changed schemes on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Matthew Stafford’s play in Joe Lombardi’s offense will be interesting to watch, even if it’s only for a couple series early in the game.
But the main course is Manziel. Get a to-go bag for your entrée, ask for the check and start the car. It’s Johnny Football time.
The Linemakers’ lean: The Browns may have the worst QB rotation of any team in the NFL, while the Lions will put a very formidable group on the field Saturday night. Jim Caldwell’s preseason record in Indy surely doesn’t impress, but he’ll look to get off on the right foot in Detroit. We’ll lay the short price with Detroit and also go OVER the total with the expectations that both teams will want to throw the ball.
Also on Saturday's card ...
Here’s an overview of the other three exhibition games to be played Saturday night, with a selection from the boys in Las Vegas on the Steelers-Giants game. Spreads and totals are the Vegas consensus as of Friday. For updated lines, visit our live odds board.
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (-2.5, 37)
The Steelers have lost their last three exhibition openers, and they are a mere 1-6-1 ATS over the last two seasons, including an 0-4 mark in 2013.
Giants coach Tom Coughlin has indicated his starters will play about as much as they did in Sunday’s Hall of Fame game vs. Buffalo. Quarterback Eli Manning took 20 snaps vs. Buffalo, with the Giants posting drives of three, five and 12 plays in succession. But remember that quality, not quantity, can be a determining factor when it comes to first-team reps in the preseason.
The Linemakers’ lean: With the Giants having already won in the preseason, this game figures to be more meaningful for the Steelers. Also, we give the edge in QB rotation to Pittsburgh. Watch for this line to hit New York -3 or higher, and wait for a number to your liking before firing on the Steelers.
Green Bay at Tennessee (-1.5, 38)
In recent preseason debuts, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played one or two series. That figures to be the blueprint Saturday. Green Bay’s backup QB play is stronger than a season ago, with Matt Flynn a good fit as the second-stringer and Scott Tolzien a capable third option.
New Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt led Arizona to a 4-2 straight-up mark in exhibition debuts from 2007-2012. He told reporters this week he hadn’t decided how long he would play the club’s first-stringers. But it’s probably safe to assume the starters aren’t going to get much run.
Houston at Arizona (-2.5, 37.5)
The Cardinals were 3-1 straight-up and against the number in the 2013 preseason slate. Starting quarterback Carson Palmer played three series in the exhibition opener a season ago, exiting after throwing a TD pass on the first play of the final drive.
New Texans coach Bill O’Brien hasn’t gone into great detail on the team’s playing time plans for Saturday. However, he has indicated tailback Arian Foster and receiver Andre Johnson will be held out. Also, reserve quarterbacks Tom Savage and Case Keenum will each play with the second-team offense, O’Brien said.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Padres are 13-0 since July 14, 2013 vs a team that has won at least their last three games if it is not the first game of a series and they are not 200+ dogs for a net profit of $1515.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Jorge De La Rosa starts the Rockies are 11-0 since August 26, 2008 within 20 cents of pickem after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits on the road for a net profit of $1154.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TRENDS:
Edwin Jackson has produced a team record of 0-16 (+$1,668) since July 2009 when not a favorite of -185 or more, if he did not allow a walk last start.
CHOICE TREND
The Rangers are 0-11 since May 31, 2014 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1176 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Clay Buchholz starts the Red Sox are 10-0 since August 02, 2009 on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches at homeand they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $1010.
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Padres are 13-0 since July 14, 2013 vs a team that has won at least their last three games if it is not the first game of a series and they are not 200+ dogs for a net profit of $1515.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Jorge De La Rosa starts the Rockies are 11-0 since August 26, 2008 within 20 cents of pickem after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits on the road for a net profit of $1154.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TRENDS:
Edwin Jackson has produced a team record of 0-16 (+$1,668) since July 2009 when not a favorite of -185 or more, if he did not allow a walk last start.
CHOICE TREND
The Rangers are 0-11 since May 31, 2014 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1176 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Clay Buchholz starts the Red Sox are 10-0 since August 02, 2009 on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches at homeand they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $1010.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ N.Y. Yankees - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Kluber vs. McCarthy
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)
There was a huge price swing yesterday, as the Giants went from fairly decent favorites to underdogs. They outhit the Royals 12 to 7 but 3 errors did them in. I look to break out of a mini-slump today in New York.
I have featured Corey Kluber numerous times recently and for good reason. I don't feel as if his success this season has been a fluke. He knows that if he can keep this up and carry it into next season a big pay increase will be on the horizon. He's been great against some really good offenses, such as the Tigers and Blue Jays, so Kluber has earned every bit of what he's accomplished. He enters this afternoon with a 2.55 ERA, which equals his ERA on the road, 2.55. His latest starts are dazzling and showcase why he is the hottest pitcher in the majors today. In Kluber's last three starts he has pitched for a 0.36 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, and .149 OBP. After handicapping all season long, I think that is the best stretch of numbers I have come across without a doubt. Brandon McCarthy since coming over from the Diamondbacks has made himself feel right at home quickly in Yankee Stadium. In five starts with the Yanks he's given up 1, 1, 1, 4 and no runs. All of his quality starts coming at home. He has a perfect 3-0 record in New York and averaging just over a run per game with an ERA of 1.02. Interesting pitching matchup here that has two of the hottest pitchers in the majors dueling off. McCarthy's first start as a Yankee was against the Indians, where he held them to only 1 run. With statistics on our side I'll be taking the UNDER 7.5 for early Saturday afternoon.
2 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ N.Y. Yankees - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Kluber vs. McCarthy
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)
There was a huge price swing yesterday, as the Giants went from fairly decent favorites to underdogs. They outhit the Royals 12 to 7 but 3 errors did them in. I look to break out of a mini-slump today in New York.
I have featured Corey Kluber numerous times recently and for good reason. I don't feel as if his success this season has been a fluke. He knows that if he can keep this up and carry it into next season a big pay increase will be on the horizon. He's been great against some really good offenses, such as the Tigers and Blue Jays, so Kluber has earned every bit of what he's accomplished. He enters this afternoon with a 2.55 ERA, which equals his ERA on the road, 2.55. His latest starts are dazzling and showcase why he is the hottest pitcher in the majors today. In Kluber's last three starts he has pitched for a 0.36 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, and .149 OBP. After handicapping all season long, I think that is the best stretch of numbers I have come across without a doubt. Brandon McCarthy since coming over from the Diamondbacks has made himself feel right at home quickly in Yankee Stadium. In five starts with the Yanks he's given up 1, 1, 1, 4 and no runs. All of his quality starts coming at home. He has a perfect 3-0 record in New York and averaging just over a run per game with an ERA of 1.02. Interesting pitching matchup here that has two of the hottest pitchers in the majors dueling off. McCarthy's first start as a Yankee was against the Indians, where he held them to only 1 run. With statistics on our side I'll be taking the UNDER 7.5 for early Saturday afternoon.
Kevin's Pick(s)
The Astros scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to go up by 2 runs, but gave one back in the top of the ninth. We split our picks as they won but couldn't cover the run line for a nice payout for us. Today I'll be in Toronto taking in a game between the Tigers and the Blue Jays. It should be a great game with two solid starters going at it. My play for tonight comes in the last game of the night...
2 UNIT = Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners - MARINERS -1.5 (+135)
Listed Pitchers: Noesi vs Paxton
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.70 units)
The Mariners have won 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8 overall. They are 61-54 on the season and 30-31 at home. The White Sox have dropped 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 games overall to fall to 55-62 on the year and 26-34 on the road. This series started on Thursday night and so far the Mariners have won the first two games by a combined score of 17-4. The White Sox have scored just 5 runs over their last 4 games. Hector Noesi will be on the mound for Chicago and he is 6-8 with a 4.97 ERA, .271 OBA and 1.45 WHIP. On the road he is 2-4 with a 5.36 ERA, and although he had a good start his last time out, he had a 5.50 ERA in July. James Paxton will take the mound for the Mariners and the southpaw is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA over his first 3 starts. So far batters are hitting just .175 against him. Note that the White Sox are just 9-23 in their last 32 road games vs a left handed starter, and 1-4 in Noesi's last 5 road starts. The Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-1 in their last 5 as a home favorite, and 4-0 in Paxton's last 4 starts. Seattle is also 4-1 in their last 5 home meetings vs the White Sox. Look for the Mariners to continue to roll tonight - I'm taking them by 2 or more at a nice +135 price.
The Astros scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to go up by 2 runs, but gave one back in the top of the ninth. We split our picks as they won but couldn't cover the run line for a nice payout for us. Today I'll be in Toronto taking in a game between the Tigers and the Blue Jays. It should be a great game with two solid starters going at it. My play for tonight comes in the last game of the night...
2 UNIT = Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners - MARINERS -1.5 (+135)
Listed Pitchers: Noesi vs Paxton
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.70 units)
The Mariners have won 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8 overall. They are 61-54 on the season and 30-31 at home. The White Sox have dropped 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 games overall to fall to 55-62 on the year and 26-34 on the road. This series started on Thursday night and so far the Mariners have won the first two games by a combined score of 17-4. The White Sox have scored just 5 runs over their last 4 games. Hector Noesi will be on the mound for Chicago and he is 6-8 with a 4.97 ERA, .271 OBA and 1.45 WHIP. On the road he is 2-4 with a 5.36 ERA, and although he had a good start his last time out, he had a 5.50 ERA in July. James Paxton will take the mound for the Mariners and the southpaw is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA over his first 3 starts. So far batters are hitting just .175 against him. Note that the White Sox are just 9-23 in their last 32 road games vs a left handed starter, and 1-4 in Noesi's last 5 road starts. The Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-1 in their last 5 as a home favorite, and 4-0 in Paxton's last 4 starts. Seattle is also 4-1 in their last 5 home meetings vs the White Sox. Look for the Mariners to continue to roll tonight - I'm taking them by 2 or more at a nice +135 price.
LineCatchers
This match up consists of two teams in very different situations. The Browns have everything to prove in 2014 and ail be looking to start that tonight in Detroit. The Lions behind new HC Jim Caldwell will sit a lot of regulars on Saturday night.
Brian Hoyer will start at QB tonight but I fully expect Johnny Manziel to play several series’ with the starters later on in the game. With Cleveland keeping their starters in the game for a longer period of time to give Manziel a chance to work on things he has learned in the off season, the Browns own a huge advantage tonight.
In NFL Pre-Season games, I always see value in teams with a point to prove and teams who have players battling for starting jobs. I believe the Browns fit that role tonight and will cover the (+1) spread.
Cleveland Browns + 1
This match up consists of two teams in very different situations. The Browns have everything to prove in 2014 and ail be looking to start that tonight in Detroit. The Lions behind new HC Jim Caldwell will sit a lot of regulars on Saturday night.
Brian Hoyer will start at QB tonight but I fully expect Johnny Manziel to play several series’ with the starters later on in the game. With Cleveland keeping their starters in the game for a longer period of time to give Manziel a chance to work on things he has learned in the off season, the Browns own a huge advantage tonight.
In NFL Pre-Season games, I always see value in teams with a point to prove and teams who have players battling for starting jobs. I believe the Browns fit that role tonight and will cover the (+1) spread.
Cleveland Browns + 1
For today we just have 1 system bet:
Colorado {B} bet - Note: This bet passes all of the RPI filters, but currently Colorado has the league's absolute worst road record. As it currently stands, this Colorado bet does not pass the worst road record filter which states: "Do not bet on a team whose road record winning percentage is in the bottom 10% in the league if they are playing on the road."
All the best,
Tony the sports betting "Champ"
Colorado {B} bet - Note: This bet passes all of the RPI filters, but currently Colorado has the league's absolute worst road record. As it currently stands, this Colorado bet does not pass the worst road record filter which states: "Do not bet on a team whose road record winning percentage is in the bottom 10% in the league if they are playing on the road."
All the best,
Tony the sports betting "Champ"
SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Washington @ ATLANTA
Washington -108 over ATLANTA
(Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
Tanner Roark has a 2.40 ERA at home this year and road ERA of 3.49. Thing is, he’s pitched much better on the road with a BAA of .221 with a BB.K split of 11/59 in 69.2 innings. Right-handed bats can't touch Roark’s slider. Over his last five starts he’s 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA and a BB/K split of 5/27 in 34 innings Roark is showing plenty of positive signs in his first full MLB season. He's tossed only two disasters all year and his command is in excellent shape. Increasing the strikeout total would be his next step and he’s getting closer with an increasing swing and miss rate of 10% over the past month. Roark should be viewed as a reliable starter moving forward and certainly a better option than Aaron Harang.
Harang gets this home start in this NL East showdown, as the Braves continue to try and shake off the effects of their disastrous road trip. Harang was not terribly effective in either of his two starts on that trip, and his 1H/2H skills split suggests that he is running out of gas after his hot start. his Apr-Jun skills were decent but since July 1 they’ve been horrible. Given the importance of the game to the Braves, Harang likely won't be left in long enough to take a serious pounding but when the promise of a quick hook is one of the only points in favor of the matchup, it's not a good sign.
Cleveland @ N.Y. YANKEES
Cleveland (1st 5 innings) -105 over N.Y.Y
(Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Indians pen has been used extensively over the past four games so we’ll eliminate that and play Corey Kluber in the first five innings. All Kluber has done is put up some of the best numbers in the game over the entire season. In 166 innings, he has 177 K’s. Over his last five starts covering 40 innings, he has a BB/K split of 5/40 to go along with an elite 52% groundball rate. Kluber is the real deal facing a Yankees lineup that scares nobody.
Brandon McCarthy attracted very little attention when he was a Diamondback but he’s turned into a New York sensation almost overnight. The first couple of starts in his new digs, McCarthy’s strong performances didn’t really open any eyes because any pitcher can get hot for a start or two but after defeating the Tigers in his fifth start, the accolades started flying in his direction. McCarty has been the talk of baseball since that last start. He’s being interviewed by local media, radio stations and he’s being told that he was the shot in the arm that the Yankees needed badly. He now becomes a prime “sell-high” target. McCarthy has posted very good skills since coming over but let us remind you that New York is his sixth team in eight years and the only time his ERA was under 4.00 was when he pitched for Oakland for two years in that pitcher’s haven. Now that all the attention in the world has been thrown his way, it would come as no surprise if he blew up. Besides that, McCarthy can’t and should NEVER be favored over Kluber.
Miami @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI/Miami over 8 +104
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Miami is taking a flyer on another veteran pitcher, Brad Penny. The last time Penny had positive results at this level was in 2007 and he's not pitched since the 2012 season, a year in which he posted an ERA of 6.11 and a 1.82 WHIP. Penny does have a chance of a resurrection because he’s just 36-years old but in 2012 he had a swinging strike rate of 5% and this is two years later. If Penny returns to anywhere near his old form, it won't be a total surprise, as he did so after being traded from Boston to San Fran in 2009. In a November 27th interview, Penny attributed his poor performance to a sore shoulder and limited recovery time outside of the offseason. There may be some truth to that but it doesn’t explain his 2011 5.38 ERA, his 4.88 ERA in 2009 or his 6.27 ERA in 2008 and all of those were in pitchers parks with the exception of 2009 when he pitched for Boston. Penny did make seven starts in the minors before this flyer and went 2-4 with a 3.05 ERA. Not bad, but this isn’t the minors and Great American Ballpark is not the best place for an old arm to make its first start in two years in. If Penny throws a beauty, good for him, we’ll send him a card but the more likely scenario is that he gets lit up for three or four runs and doesn’t make it past five innings. Oh, by the way, Penny makes Bartolo Colon look like Twiggy.
Then there’s the case of Alfredo Simon. After going almost three years without a MLB start, this 33-year-old career reliever has a 12-7 record, a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 22 starts. Fact or fluke? Simon has been helped by plenty of good luck (25% hit rate, 78% strand rate). His xERA of 4.19 points to some serious regression and that xERA is 5.84 over his last four starts. Simon’s BB/K split of 35/85 in 138 innings shows good control but also shows he’s not fooling anyone. Simon's age and skill profile cast doubt that he can finish strong and we’re also seeing serious signs that he’s running out of gas. Over his last four starts, covering 21 innings, Simon’s BB/K split was 7/10. On July 9, Simon defeated the Cubs to run his record to 12-3 with an ERA of 2.70. Four starts later he’s 12-7 with an ERA of 3.09. The regression continues here.
CFL
We're passing on Saturday's Calgary/Ottawa matchup.
MLB
Washington @ ATLANTA
Washington -108 over ATLANTA
(Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
Tanner Roark has a 2.40 ERA at home this year and road ERA of 3.49. Thing is, he’s pitched much better on the road with a BAA of .221 with a BB.K split of 11/59 in 69.2 innings. Right-handed bats can't touch Roark’s slider. Over his last five starts he’s 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA and a BB/K split of 5/27 in 34 innings Roark is showing plenty of positive signs in his first full MLB season. He's tossed only two disasters all year and his command is in excellent shape. Increasing the strikeout total would be his next step and he’s getting closer with an increasing swing and miss rate of 10% over the past month. Roark should be viewed as a reliable starter moving forward and certainly a better option than Aaron Harang.
Harang gets this home start in this NL East showdown, as the Braves continue to try and shake off the effects of their disastrous road trip. Harang was not terribly effective in either of his two starts on that trip, and his 1H/2H skills split suggests that he is running out of gas after his hot start. his Apr-Jun skills were decent but since July 1 they’ve been horrible. Given the importance of the game to the Braves, Harang likely won't be left in long enough to take a serious pounding but when the promise of a quick hook is one of the only points in favor of the matchup, it's not a good sign.
Cleveland @ N.Y. YANKEES
Cleveland (1st 5 innings) -105 over N.Y.Y
(Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Indians pen has been used extensively over the past four games so we’ll eliminate that and play Corey Kluber in the first five innings. All Kluber has done is put up some of the best numbers in the game over the entire season. In 166 innings, he has 177 K’s. Over his last five starts covering 40 innings, he has a BB/K split of 5/40 to go along with an elite 52% groundball rate. Kluber is the real deal facing a Yankees lineup that scares nobody.
Brandon McCarthy attracted very little attention when he was a Diamondback but he’s turned into a New York sensation almost overnight. The first couple of starts in his new digs, McCarthy’s strong performances didn’t really open any eyes because any pitcher can get hot for a start or two but after defeating the Tigers in his fifth start, the accolades started flying in his direction. McCarty has been the talk of baseball since that last start. He’s being interviewed by local media, radio stations and he’s being told that he was the shot in the arm that the Yankees needed badly. He now becomes a prime “sell-high” target. McCarthy has posted very good skills since coming over but let us remind you that New York is his sixth team in eight years and the only time his ERA was under 4.00 was when he pitched for Oakland for two years in that pitcher’s haven. Now that all the attention in the world has been thrown his way, it would come as no surprise if he blew up. Besides that, McCarthy can’t and should NEVER be favored over Kluber.
Miami @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI/Miami over 8 +104
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Miami is taking a flyer on another veteran pitcher, Brad Penny. The last time Penny had positive results at this level was in 2007 and he's not pitched since the 2012 season, a year in which he posted an ERA of 6.11 and a 1.82 WHIP. Penny does have a chance of a resurrection because he’s just 36-years old but in 2012 he had a swinging strike rate of 5% and this is two years later. If Penny returns to anywhere near his old form, it won't be a total surprise, as he did so after being traded from Boston to San Fran in 2009. In a November 27th interview, Penny attributed his poor performance to a sore shoulder and limited recovery time outside of the offseason. There may be some truth to that but it doesn’t explain his 2011 5.38 ERA, his 4.88 ERA in 2009 or his 6.27 ERA in 2008 and all of those were in pitchers parks with the exception of 2009 when he pitched for Boston. Penny did make seven starts in the minors before this flyer and went 2-4 with a 3.05 ERA. Not bad, but this isn’t the minors and Great American Ballpark is not the best place for an old arm to make its first start in two years in. If Penny throws a beauty, good for him, we’ll send him a card but the more likely scenario is that he gets lit up for three or four runs and doesn’t make it past five innings. Oh, by the way, Penny makes Bartolo Colon look like Twiggy.
Then there’s the case of Alfredo Simon. After going almost three years without a MLB start, this 33-year-old career reliever has a 12-7 record, a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 22 starts. Fact or fluke? Simon has been helped by plenty of good luck (25% hit rate, 78% strand rate). His xERA of 4.19 points to some serious regression and that xERA is 5.84 over his last four starts. Simon’s BB/K split of 35/85 in 138 innings shows good control but also shows he’s not fooling anyone. Simon's age and skill profile cast doubt that he can finish strong and we’re also seeing serious signs that he’s running out of gas. Over his last four starts, covering 21 innings, Simon’s BB/K split was 7/10. On July 9, Simon defeated the Cubs to run his record to 12-3 with an ERA of 2.70. Four starts later he’s 12-7 with an ERA of 3.09. The regression continues here.
CFL
We're passing on Saturday's Calgary/Ottawa matchup.
