Brady Kannon | MLB Money Line
dime bet – 905 MIL (+100) vs 906 Mia
Analysis: The Brewers are back! Yeah, they took about a week to ten days off on offense and now that appears to be over as the bats have returned.. just in time for a date with Jacob Turner who hasn’t converted a start into a win in his last 17-tries. Miami is just 3-and-14 in his starts despite their excellent record at home. Peralta has been good enough for Milwaukee and again, if the bats are still going as they have for The Brewers, I like our chances here. I would probably act sooner rather than later as I would expect Milwaukee to become the favorite in this game.
dime bet – 905 MIL (+100) vs 906 Mia
Analysis: The Brewers are back! Yeah, they took about a week to ten days off on offense and now that appears to be over as the bats have returned.. just in time for a date with Jacob Turner who hasn’t converted a start into a win in his last 17-tries. Miami is just 3-and-14 in his starts despite their excellent record at home. Peralta has been good enough for Milwaukee and again, if the bats are still going as they have for The Brewers, I like our chances here. I would probably act sooner rather than later as I would expect Milwaukee to become the favorite in this game.
StatSystemsSports.net
Inside the Paint- Saturday
The Heat look to build on Tuesday's victory over the Pacers when the Eastern Conference Finals shifts to South Beach for a pivotal Game #3 (8:30 PM EST) on Saturday night. Miami was able to take Game #2 by shooting 51% FG and 40% threes (8-of-20), while producing seven steals and six blocks, which was much more than Indiana's six steals and two blocks. The Pacers stayed in the game with excellent long-range shooting (47.4%) which dwarfed what they shot from inside the arc (37.7%). But Indiana did have the edge in rebounding (41-38), including a significant 16-6 advantage on the offensive glass.
With Tuesday's outcome, the Heat hold a 15-11 straight-up advantage in the past three seasons in this series with the teams an even 13-13 versus the number in those contests. But this series has been very lopsided in South Beach, as the Pacers are just 3-15 SU (7-11 ATS) in their past 18 visits to American Airlines Arena. Indiana was a completely different team in Game #2 than it was in Game #1, as the club was not getting the same efficient production and balance from its starting unit with a virtually non-existent bench that scored only nine points on 3-of-13 shooting.
NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
The Indiana Pacers are hoping one more day will give them a definitive answer when it comes to the status of All-Star forward George Paul for Game #3 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals Saturday. Paul suffered a concussion after being kneed in the head versus the Miami Heat in Game #2 Tuesday and, according to the Indy Star, is a gameday decision for Saturday.
Oddsmakers set Indiana as a 7-point underdog for Game #3, expecting Paul to play. However, those odds could dramatically swing if he is not cleared for action. “We are guessing that Paul George will start when we opened Miami -7,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag tells StatSystems Sports. “If George doesn’t get clearance to play, expect the line to go up to Heat -9 or -9.5.”
In Las Vegas, the line may jump to Miami -8.5 if Paul is ruled out, according to Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the LVH Superbook. And some online books are setting Paul's worth at as many as four points to the Pacers' spread. "We'd go straight to (Miami) -10.5 if he was scratched," Stewart tells us here at StatSystems Sports. "He's their best offensive player and their best perimeter defender. While his numbers are a bit down so far in the first two games versus the Heat, that's because he's guarding LeBron (James)."
Paul, who missed only two games this season (both for rest at the end of the schedule), walked through a light practice Thursday but avoided contact drills and just shot around. According to Forbes Magazine, if he were to suit up Saturday night in South Beach, it would be the fastest time any player has recovered from a concussion this season – with just four days between time of injury and return.
Paul is not only a major asset on offense, leading Indiana with 21.7 points per game in the regular season and putting up 21.5 points per playoff game, but is also the team’s top defender and has been assigned to stopping – or at least slowing down - LeBron James. James averaged 28.7 points in four games versus Indiana this regular season but just 23.5 in the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals, shooting 56 percent from the field (20 for 36) with seven turnovers. He’s averaging 28.8 points per game in the postseason heading into Game #3.
"Check out LeBron's numbers offensively, they're way down," says Stewart. "LeBron is like 1 of 12 from 3-point range, again that's all Paul. You take him out of the lineup, and the Pacers are lost on both sides of the court." The total for Saturday night’s Game #3 in Miami opened 182.5 and has jumped to 183 points. The Pacers and Heat have split the Over/Under in the first two games of this series and have compiled a 3-3 Over/Under record in their six meetings this season.
Betting Notes – Saturday
•Pacers shot 52% in Game #1, outscored Heat 29-10 on foul line, putting six in double figures; they shot 40% in Game #2, were outscored 11-10 on foul line- they led 75-72 in 4th quarter, before Heat went on decisive run to even series. Home side won nine of last ten Miami-Indiana games, as Pacers lost seven of last eight visits to Miami. Six of last nine series meetings went over the total. Miami is 9-3 in playoffs, 5-1 at home; they're 7-5 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 9-6 in playoffs, 5-1 versus spread when they are getting points. Five of last seven Indiana games stayed under.
--Over is 44-32 in playoffs this season.
--Favorites are 27-49 in playoffs this season.
Hoop Trends - Saturday
•INDIANA is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 94.3, OPPONENT 93.2.
•INDIANA is 42-21 UNDER (+18.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was INDIANA 94.5, OPPONENT 91.0.
•INDIANA is 3-16 (-14.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 41.4, OPPONENT 46.6.
•INDIANA is 36-11 UNDER (+23.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was INDIANA 44.6, OPPONENT 45.8.
•Frank Vogel is 32-11 UNDER (+19.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days as the coach of INDIANA.
The average score was Vogel 43.6, OPPONENT 45.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - revenging a home loss versus opponent, off a home loss, after 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games.
(126-75 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.7%, +43.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (155-49 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 99.9, Opponent 91.9 (Average point differential = +8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 74 (36.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (81-47).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (391-345).
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Inside the Paint- Saturday
The Heat look to build on Tuesday's victory over the Pacers when the Eastern Conference Finals shifts to South Beach for a pivotal Game #3 (8:30 PM EST) on Saturday night. Miami was able to take Game #2 by shooting 51% FG and 40% threes (8-of-20), while producing seven steals and six blocks, which was much more than Indiana's six steals and two blocks. The Pacers stayed in the game with excellent long-range shooting (47.4%) which dwarfed what they shot from inside the arc (37.7%). But Indiana did have the edge in rebounding (41-38), including a significant 16-6 advantage on the offensive glass.
With Tuesday's outcome, the Heat hold a 15-11 straight-up advantage in the past three seasons in this series with the teams an even 13-13 versus the number in those contests. But this series has been very lopsided in South Beach, as the Pacers are just 3-15 SU (7-11 ATS) in their past 18 visits to American Airlines Arena. Indiana was a completely different team in Game #2 than it was in Game #1, as the club was not getting the same efficient production and balance from its starting unit with a virtually non-existent bench that scored only nine points on 3-of-13 shooting.
NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
The Indiana Pacers are hoping one more day will give them a definitive answer when it comes to the status of All-Star forward George Paul for Game #3 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals Saturday. Paul suffered a concussion after being kneed in the head versus the Miami Heat in Game #2 Tuesday and, according to the Indy Star, is a gameday decision for Saturday.
Oddsmakers set Indiana as a 7-point underdog for Game #3, expecting Paul to play. However, those odds could dramatically swing if he is not cleared for action. “We are guessing that Paul George will start when we opened Miami -7,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag tells StatSystems Sports. “If George doesn’t get clearance to play, expect the line to go up to Heat -9 or -9.5.”
In Las Vegas, the line may jump to Miami -8.5 if Paul is ruled out, according to Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the LVH Superbook. And some online books are setting Paul's worth at as many as four points to the Pacers' spread. "We'd go straight to (Miami) -10.5 if he was scratched," Stewart tells us here at StatSystems Sports. "He's their best offensive player and their best perimeter defender. While his numbers are a bit down so far in the first two games versus the Heat, that's because he's guarding LeBron (James)."
Paul, who missed only two games this season (both for rest at the end of the schedule), walked through a light practice Thursday but avoided contact drills and just shot around. According to Forbes Magazine, if he were to suit up Saturday night in South Beach, it would be the fastest time any player has recovered from a concussion this season – with just four days between time of injury and return.
Paul is not only a major asset on offense, leading Indiana with 21.7 points per game in the regular season and putting up 21.5 points per playoff game, but is also the team’s top defender and has been assigned to stopping – or at least slowing down - LeBron James. James averaged 28.7 points in four games versus Indiana this regular season but just 23.5 in the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals, shooting 56 percent from the field (20 for 36) with seven turnovers. He’s averaging 28.8 points per game in the postseason heading into Game #3.
"Check out LeBron's numbers offensively, they're way down," says Stewart. "LeBron is like 1 of 12 from 3-point range, again that's all Paul. You take him out of the lineup, and the Pacers are lost on both sides of the court." The total for Saturday night’s Game #3 in Miami opened 182.5 and has jumped to 183 points. The Pacers and Heat have split the Over/Under in the first two games of this series and have compiled a 3-3 Over/Under record in their six meetings this season.
Betting Notes – Saturday
•Pacers shot 52% in Game #1, outscored Heat 29-10 on foul line, putting six in double figures; they shot 40% in Game #2, were outscored 11-10 on foul line- they led 75-72 in 4th quarter, before Heat went on decisive run to even series. Home side won nine of last ten Miami-Indiana games, as Pacers lost seven of last eight visits to Miami. Six of last nine series meetings went over the total. Miami is 9-3 in playoffs, 5-1 at home; they're 7-5 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 9-6 in playoffs, 5-1 versus spread when they are getting points. Five of last seven Indiana games stayed under.
--Over is 44-32 in playoffs this season.
--Favorites are 27-49 in playoffs this season.
Hoop Trends - Saturday
•INDIANA is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 94.3, OPPONENT 93.2.
•INDIANA is 42-21 UNDER (+18.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was INDIANA 94.5, OPPONENT 91.0.
•INDIANA is 3-16 (-14.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 41.4, OPPONENT 46.6.
•INDIANA is 36-11 UNDER (+23.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was INDIANA 44.6, OPPONENT 45.8.
•Frank Vogel is 32-11 UNDER (+19.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days as the coach of INDIANA.
The average score was Vogel 43.6, OPPONENT 45.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - revenging a home loss versus opponent, off a home loss, after 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games.
(126-75 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.7%, +43.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (155-49 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 99.9, Opponent 91.9 (Average point differential = +8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 74 (36.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (81-47).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (391-345).
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