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Larry Ness' 83% Situational Stunner-NBA (15-5 all NBA s/May 1)
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 8:30 ET.
The Pacers shot 51.5% as a team in Game 1, placing SIX players in double digits (including all five starters). The result was a surprisingly easy 11-point win (note: Heat were favored between two and three points). The Pacers again saw all five starters reach double digits in Game 2 but the result was quite different.
The home team had won NINE consecutive meetings in this rivalry (including 13 of the last 15) heading into that contest but the Pacers shot just 40.0% as a team and scored only 83 points, 24 fewer than in their Game 1 win. Stephenson was superb (25-6-7) but George and West combined to shoot a miserable 9 of 32 from the floor (28.1%), totaling only 24 points. George in particular had a poor game (after getting 24 by himself in Game 1), missing 10 of 11 first-half shots. Hibbert played well (13 & 13) but it was not nearly enough.
The Heat were the NBA's best shooting team during the regular season (50.1%) and while they shot 51.3% in Game 1, they fell 11 points short. LBJ and Wade combined for 52 points on 63.9% shooting in Game 1 and while their production dropped slightly in Game 2 (45 points), they again shot efficiently (55.9% for LBJ and Wade, 50.7% for the team as a whole). However, defense was the key for Miami, as it held Indiana to nine points over a 10-minute stretch in the first half and closed it out by allowing just 10 points over the final 7:19 of the game.
The series' next two games are in Miami and the Pacers announced Friday night that George has been cleared "to return to normal basketball activity," a decision made three days after he was concussed in Game 2. "Barring any unforeseen complications, he will play" on Saturday in Miami, the Pacers said. That's one lineup issue settled.
The Heat also have a lineup decision to make. Greg Oden, whose last postseason appearance was April 30, 2009, may be inserted into the Heat rotation after showing Miami's coaches in recent days that back issues that slowed him down for weeks may finally be a thing of the past. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra suggested that Oden "could" get some minutes, which would almost certainly come against Indiana center Roy Hibbert. "If coach needs me, I'm ready to play," Oden said. "I'm definitely ready whenever he needs me."
Miami is 5-0 at home in the postseason, winning by an average of 10.0 PPG, while shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor. Going back to last season, the Heat have won eight straight playoff games in their own building and since LBJ joined the club they're 35-7 at home during the postseason. However, TY's 5-0 run includes a 21-point win over the Nets in Game 1 of that series, meaning the other four games have been decided by a much more modest margin of 7.3 PPG (2-2 ATS).
Also, among those seven losses since the arrival of LBJ, TWO are Indiana wins in both 2012 and 2013. "Both teams can win on each other's floor. We've proven that the last couple years," James said. "We have to protect our home, but we can't go out there saying that just because we're back home we get automatic wins. We've got to play."
Indiana produced its best offensive performance of the postseason in Game 1, leading wire-to-wire. The Pacers also led for most of the contest in Game 2 but had a much more difficult time scoring and ended up dropping an 87-83 decision. “It’s a split,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “We’ll respond. We’ll look at the tape, make our adjustments and come back for Game 3.” James and Wade put their stamp on the series in the fourth quarter of Game 2, scoring or assisting on EVERY point scored and never panicking when Miami got down. After allowing the Pacers to shoot 51.5 percent from the floor in Game 1, the Heat shut down Indiana, holding them to 40.0% in Game 2.
LBJ and Wade are "special" (particularly James) but the Pacers are a much more balanced team and now that Hibbert's "funk" is a thing of the past, this Indian team can take the Heat to the wire in any given game. Despite receiving all sort of criticism this postseason, the Pacers are 5-0 following a loss and 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog. That's an 83% "play-on" and I'm taking the points!