Stephen Nover's NCAA TOURNAMENT PLAY OF THE YEAR!!
Oregon plus 5 vs. Wisconsin Wisconsin scores more this season, but its defense has slipped. The Badgers have been hurt more than most teams by the new rule that limits physical play. That's the style Bo Ryan has taught his Badgers, who lost three of their best defenders last year. The Badgers are vulnerable against fast-paced teams, who can knock down the 3-pointer plus get to the hoops and hit their free throws. Oregon has those traits. The Ducks ranked No. 8 in scoring, 31st in 3-point percentage and sixth in free throw percentage. The Ducks have three good guards - Joseph Young, Johnathan Loyd and Jason Calliste. I don't see the Badgers slowing all three down. The Badgers are not fast enough or athletic enough to keep up with Oregon, whose run-and-shoot style produces layups and open 3-pointers. The line is a bit inflated because of Wisconsin's 75-35 first-round blowout win against American. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a point spread cover. Oregon is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing at a neutral site.
Oregon plus 5 vs. Wisconsin Wisconsin scores more this season, but its defense has slipped. The Badgers have been hurt more than most teams by the new rule that limits physical play. That's the style Bo Ryan has taught his Badgers, who lost three of their best defenders last year. The Badgers are vulnerable against fast-paced teams, who can knock down the 3-pointer plus get to the hoops and hit their free throws. Oregon has those traits. The Ducks ranked No. 8 in scoring, 31st in 3-point percentage and sixth in free throw percentage. The Ducks have three good guards - Joseph Young, Johnathan Loyd and Jason Calliste. I don't see the Badgers slowing all three down. The Badgers are not fast enough or athletic enough to keep up with Oregon, whose run-and-shoot style produces layups and open 3-pointers. The line is a bit inflated because of Wisconsin's 75-35 first-round blowout win against American. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a point spread cover. Oregon is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing at a neutral site.
[h=3]No. 3 Syracuse Orange versus No. 11 Dayton Flyers[/h]
LVH Line: Syracuse minus-6.5
PickCenter consensus pick
Dayton's upset win over Ohio State on Thursday was a clear demonstration of why the Flyers are a team I'm in no rush to bet against. Archie Miller's squad didn't ride any hot shooters, nor did they dominate the glass or force turnovers in bunches. Yet they covered wire-to-wire, and Vee Sanford hit the winning layup in the closing seconds, the last of 15 lead changes. The Flyers showed toughness and resiliency throughout.
I worry about a Dayton letdown after a huge win over a team it was dying to play and matched up well against. Coach Jim Boeheim's trademark matchup zone has been giving unfamiliar opponents fits all season, and the Orange will enjoy plenty of crowd support in Buffalo in a venue where their struggling offense shot 49 percent from the floor in their opener.
ATS pick: Syracuse
LVH line: Villanova -3.5
PickCenter consensus pick
Villanova went 21-9 ATS during the regular season, a dramatically undervalued commodity for extended stretches. And the Wildcats covered the spread once again in Thursday's 20-point win over plucky Wisconsin-Milwaukee thanks to a 12-2 late-game run-out in the final 4:30. Coach Jay Wright's squad has done that repeatedly this year, extending margins in the latter stages of games that were competitive early.
But there's a solid case to be made for UConn here. The Huskies are getting great guard play from Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright on a consistent basis. They hit 90 percent from the free throw line to beat Saint Joseph's, and coach Kevin Ollie's squad was quite adept at hanging tough against quality foes (with the notable exception of Louisville) all season. Expect a tight game.
ATS pick: Connecticut
AP Photo/Jessica HillBilly Donovan and Florida, despite a lackluster first game, shouldn't have trouble with Pittsburgh. [h=3]No. 1 Florida Gators versus No. 9 Pittsburgh Panthers[/h]
LVH line: Florida minus-5
PickCenter Consensus Pick
Pittsburgh backers enjoyed a true "rocking chair" game in the Panthers' opener against Colorado, the SU and ATS outcome fully determined before halftime. Florida backers spent the game swearing at their TV sets as the Gators never pulled away from Albany despite outshooting the Great Danes 51 percent to 39 percent, the type of percentage that often results in blowouts.
All it takes is one game for a bandwagon to shift completely at this time of year. Pitt is likely to garner market support, while bettors who lost with the Gators will be in no rush to get back to the betting window in support of them again. Amazingly, this nine-loss Panthers team has been an underdog only twice all season (versus Virginia and North Carolina) failing to win or cover either game. I'm not expecting the third time to be a charm in a game where Florida should flex its collective muscle.
ATS pick: Florida*
LVH line: Louisville -9
PickCenter consensus pick
I'm not going to disparage the Billikens' win over NC State, but let's be real -- the Wolfpack lost that game more than Saint Louis won it, missing 11 free throws in the final three minutes of regulation and the game-tying free throw attempt in the final minute of overtime. Saint Louis played well enough down the stretch to take advantage of its opportunity, but it will be hard-pressed to match its excellent shooting and lack of turnovers from Thursday's affair.
Coach Rick Pitino probably got what he wanted out of the Cardinals' tighter-than-expected win over Manhattan. His team survived and advanced, while getting a real wake-up call in a game against a former assistant who knew everything that Louisville wanted to do, and had effective countermeasures. Saint Louis is a "high basketball IQ" team, but I don't think it has the countermeasures for Louisville's length, athleticism or hunger following a subpar showing.
ATS pick: Louisville*
LVH line: Wisconsin minus-5
PickCenter consensus pick
Wisconsin is laying an extra couple of points in this matchup because of its proximity to home at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee. The Badgers certainly didn't need much help in a near-perfect showing in their opener against outclassed American University. They'll need help here against Dana Altman's Ducks.
Oregon has come on like a freight train down the stretch, riding 9-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS hot streaks into Saturday. The Ducks have been cashing tickets as underdogs repeatedly during that span, pulling off a pair of outright upsets and losing a pair of games by a single bucket in spread-covering fashion. They are an excellent 3-point shooting team, but hit just 2-of-13 in their blowout over BYU. If Oregon can get going from beyond the arc in this one, the Badgers are on upset alert.
ATS pick: Oregon*
LVH line: Michigan -5
PickCenter consensus pick
The Longhorns' performance in their opener against Arizona State was a true microcosm of their inconsistent season. Coach Rick Barnes' squad isn't short on size, depth or talent. It is, however, short on maturity, a very young squad that came unglued down the stretch of an intense tournament game, and lucky to escape with the buzzer-beating two-point win.
That lack of poise and maturity is clearly problematic against the savvy Wolverines, who are 6-1 ATS in their past seven NCAA tournament games -- the lone spread loss coming in last year's national title game against Louisville. But Michigan's biggest struggles this season have come against opponents that are big enough to control the glass and prevent easy looks in the paint -- teams like Texas.
ATS pick: Texas
LVH line: Michigan State minus-7
PickCenter consensus pick
The Crimson were far from perfect in their opener on Thursday. They missed free throws, committed turnovers and struggled mightily on the defensive glass. But Tommy Amaker's squad was able to hold off a Cincinnati charge despite making only three shots in the final 12 minutes of the game thanks to an impressive defensive effort and a lot of grit and guile. The Crimson pulled off a first-round upset over New Mexico last year before suffering a 23-point beatdown when they faced Arizona in the Round of 32. I think they'll be a good notch or two more competitive this year, even as they step up in class against the Spartans.
Adreian Payne's 41-point effort got all the headlines as Michigan State beat Delaware, but he wasn't alone. Tom Izzo's squad hit 53.6 percent from the floor, 52.6 percent from 3-point range and 92 percent from the free throw line. Yet despite those impressive shooting numbers, the Spartans still couldn't build any point spread margin. That tells me that whatever "value" Michigan State had in the betting markets at the start of March is largely gone by now.
ATS pick: Harvard
LVH line:San Diego St. -3.5
PickCenter consensus pick
I cashed in with North Dakota State on Thursday Night, and I'm quite comfortable getting right back to the betting window in support of the Bison here. Yes, they needed a 3-pointer from Lawrence Alexander in the final seconds of regulation to force overtime, but the Bison are a great offensive team -- the single best shooting team in the entire country this year -- and are capable of hitting tough, pressure-filled shots.
San Diego State collapsed down the stretch against New Mexico State, much to the chagrin of the many bettors who had the Aztecs (or the Under) in that ballgame. They were able to grind out the win in overtime, but the performance reinforced my doubts about Steve Fisher's team. Unlike North Dakota State, San Diego State doesn't get anything easily on the offensive end of the court, and their biggest weakness all year was matching up against teams that have ample low post size -- teams like the Bison.
ATS pick: North Dakota State
[h=3]Tuley's Take on Saturday's top matchups[/h]
Connecticut Huskies versus Villanova Wildcats
The great thing about the NCAA tournament is that, thanks to filling out so many brackets, I've already looked at later matchups. I had UConn advancing past Villanova in most of my brackets because I felt they matched up very well despite being a No. 7 seed against a No. 2 seed. Their top guard tandem of Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright will be able to beat Villanova at its own pressing game.
Watching Thursday's games didn't change my opinion at all, as I liked how UConn battled back in its game with Saint Joseph's that it very well should have lost. Villanova's performance, despite pulling away late to cover the 16.5-point spread, left a lot to be desired as the Wildcats struggled to put a much less talented Milwaukee team away.
ATS pick: UConn*
North Dakota State Bison versus San Diego State Aztecs
I had a great day Thursday, but the one that got away was not having North Dakota State against Oklahoma. I went into the game thinking the Sooners were the better, more-balanced team, but I came away believing that the win by the Bison was far from a fluke. They have the look of a Sweet 16 Cinderella.
On the other hand, San Diego State didn't impress (maybe I was a little biased since I had New Mexico State plus the points). A lot of what I observed in these two teams was about shot selection: I saw why NDSU led the nation in field-goal percentage while San Diego State often struggled to get off good shots.
ATS pick: North Dakota State*
[h=3]Best bets from PJ Walsh[/h]
Syracuse Orange (minus-6.5) over Dayton Flyers
Using our Bet Labs software, we analyzed the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament and found that since 2005, all favorites are 76-64 (54.3 percent) ATS. Digging deeper, the ATS win rate improves to 57.1 percent when focusing only on favorites of greater than five points. This make sense from a betting theory perspective as the Round of 32 includes quick, two-day turnarounds for teams coming off wins in the Round of 64.
Because there's little time to prepare and game plan, teams potentially rely more heavily on talent alone, giving the advantage to teams "expected" to be better than their opponents. Furthermore, we're still early enough in the tournament where the difference in talent between opponents is noticeable enough to see a handful of favorites that fit our analysis, like Syracuse at minus-6.5. Because of this, we'll lay the points and take the Orange.
Michigan State Spartans (minus-7) over Harvard Crimson
There's no question that Michigan State has talent and, after suffering from the injury bug throughout the regular season, the Spartans are finally healthy and poised for a deep tourney run. Since our Round of 32 betting theory is based on the idea that talent rules on short rest, it makes sense that our system points towards Michigan State as a team offering value.
So, for the same reasons we like Syracuse above, we'll grab Michigan State at minus-7 in this game.
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee went 1-2 on Friday winning with Kentucky -5/Kansas State and losing two with Oaklahoma State -2/Gonzaga and Tulsa +9/UCLA.
In college basketball for Saturday E&B have two plays and one bonus play.
(1) Louisville -9/Saint Louis
(2) San Diego State -3/North Dakota State
Bonus Play ***** Pittsburgh +6/Florida ****** Bonus Play
Ben lee is 4-2-1 +$90 for week twenty one 74-91-3 -$1888.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee went 1-2 on Friday winning with Kentucky -5/Kansas State and losing two with Oaklahoma State -2/Gonzaga and Tulsa +9/UCLA.
In college basketball for Saturday E&B have two plays and one bonus play.
(1) Louisville -9/Saint Louis
(2) San Diego State -3/North Dakota State
Bonus Play ***** Pittsburgh +6/Florida ****** Bonus Play
Ben lee is 4-2-1 +$90 for week twenty one 74-91-3 -$1888.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
