River City Sharps
The Cardinals got more of a scare than they would have liked in their first NCAA game as Manhattan took them to the wire, while the Billikens had a magical comeback that ended in an overtime win over NC State. We have had the opportunity to see both of these teams plays a lot this season. We are based in Kentucky, so we see Louisville play a lot, but we also closely watch the A10 so have seen plenty of St. Louis. The Billikens started off the season red hot but really struggled down the stretch...we were surprised they were even able to beat the Wolfpack on Thursday. The Cardinals were probably the hottest team in the country coming into the tourney, so they are playing great basketball right now. As you may know, Manhattan coach Steve Massiello was Pitino's lead assistant at Louisville and played for him at UK. According to several folks that watched the Louisville-Manhattan game, they said Massiello was yelling out the plays Louisville was going to run before they even got over half court! The point is that we don't think you should put too much stock into the close win the other night. Now St. Louis is a very good defensive team, but where they are going to struggle in this game is the speed and quickness of the guards. Jordair Jett is a really good player for St. Louis, but he's simply not quick enough to stay with Russ Smith from Louisville. The Cards are 20-7 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons and 14-3 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. We think with a normal start time and a game under their belt, you will see a focused, solid effort from Louisville that leads to a double-digit win. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - LOUISVILLE (-9)
The Cardinals got more of a scare than they would have liked in their first NCAA game as Manhattan took them to the wire, while the Billikens had a magical comeback that ended in an overtime win over NC State. We have had the opportunity to see both of these teams plays a lot this season. We are based in Kentucky, so we see Louisville play a lot, but we also closely watch the A10 so have seen plenty of St. Louis. The Billikens started off the season red hot but really struggled down the stretch...we were surprised they were even able to beat the Wolfpack on Thursday. The Cardinals were probably the hottest team in the country coming into the tourney, so they are playing great basketball right now. As you may know, Manhattan coach Steve Massiello was Pitino's lead assistant at Louisville and played for him at UK. According to several folks that watched the Louisville-Manhattan game, they said Massiello was yelling out the plays Louisville was going to run before they even got over half court! The point is that we don't think you should put too much stock into the close win the other night. Now St. Louis is a very good defensive team, but where they are going to struggle in this game is the speed and quickness of the guards. Jordair Jett is a really good player for St. Louis, but he's simply not quick enough to stay with Russ Smith from Louisville. The Cards are 20-7 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons and 14-3 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. We think with a normal start time and a game under their belt, you will see a focused, solid effort from Louisville that leads to a double-digit win. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - LOUISVILLE (-9)
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/22/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 3/22/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Saturday
•Hot Teams
-- Trailblazers won three of their last four games.
-- Rockets won seven of their last ten games.
-- Pacers won five of their last six games.
-- Grizzlies won six of last eight.
-- Miami won three of its last four games.
-- Spurs won their last 12 games, covered their last six.
-- Golden State won eight of its last ten games.
-- Clippers won 11 of their last 12 games.
•Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost last two games, after winning six of previous seven.
-- Cavaliers lost last three games, by 22-4-7 points.
-- 76ers lost their last 23 games, but covered five of last seven.
-- Chicago covered once in its last six games.
-- New Orleans lost three of its last four home games.
-- Magic lost their last seven games (2-5 vs. spread).
-- Utah lost its last six games (2-3-1 vs. spread).
-- Pistons lost seven of their last eight games.
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Portland games went over total.
-- Five of last six Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Philly games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Indiana games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Utah-Orlando games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio road games went over.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Clipper games.
•Series Records
-- Bobcats lost eight of last nine games with Portland.
-- Rockets won five of last six games with Cleveland.
-- 76ers lost five of last six games with Chicago.
-- Pacers won their last three games with Memphis.
-- Pelicans lost their last five games with Miami.
-- Jazz won their last six games with Orlando.
-- Warriors lost their last four games with San Antonio.
-- Clippers won their last five games with Detroit.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CHARLOTTE is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 89.5, OPPONENT 100.1.
-- GOLDEN STATE is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.2, OPPONENT 87.4.
-- UTAH is 2-15 (-14.5 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.
The average score was UTAH 40.6, OPPONENT 51.8.
-- DETROIT is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was DETROIT 51.4, OPPONENT 55.7.
-- JACQUE VAUGHN is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was VAUGHN 94.5, OPPONENT 101.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DETROIT is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was DETROIT 97.8, OPPONENT 104.0.
-- CHICAGO is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 91.1, OPPONENT 82.3.
-- CHARLOTTE is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 52.8, OPPONENT 46.6.
-- SAN ANTONIO is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 45.5, OPPONENT 46.4.
-- TERRY STOTTS is 19-4 OVER (+14.6 Units) versus teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents as the coach of PORTLAND.
The average score was STOTTS 107.7, OPPONENT 106.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Any team with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(36-9 since 1996.) (80.0%, +27.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +101.4
The average score in these games was: Team 101, Opponent 92.4 (Average point differential = +8.6)
The situation's record this season is: (7-0, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0, +15 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-0, +20 units).
-- Play Against - Any team of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite.
(40-11 since 1996.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (39-12)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.8
The average score in these games was: Team 100.3, Opponent 92 (Average point differential = +8.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (41.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (INDIANA) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(56-22 since 1996.) (71.8%, +31.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.6
The average score in these games was: Team 90.8, Opponent 89.3 (Total points scored = 180.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (45.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points versus the first half line (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
(36-7 since 1996.) (83.7%, +28.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 50.8 (Average first half point differential = -2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (ORLANDO) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(51-19 since 1996.) (72.9%, +30.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.1, Opponent 48.4 (Total first half points scored = 94.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-9).
___________________________________________
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Saturday, 3/22/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
________________________________________________
Betting Notes - Saturday
•Hot Teams
-- Trailblazers won three of their last four games.
-- Rockets won seven of their last ten games.
-- Pacers won five of their last six games.
-- Grizzlies won six of last eight.
-- Miami won three of its last four games.
-- Spurs won their last 12 games, covered their last six.
-- Golden State won eight of its last ten games.
-- Clippers won 11 of their last 12 games.
•Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost last two games, after winning six of previous seven.
-- Cavaliers lost last three games, by 22-4-7 points.
-- 76ers lost their last 23 games, but covered five of last seven.
-- Chicago covered once in its last six games.
-- New Orleans lost three of its last four home games.
-- Magic lost their last seven games (2-5 vs. spread).
-- Utah lost its last six games (2-3-1 vs. spread).
-- Pistons lost seven of their last eight games.
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Portland games went over total.
-- Five of last six Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Philly games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Indiana games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Utah-Orlando games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio road games went over.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Clipper games.
•Series Records
-- Bobcats lost eight of last nine games with Portland.
-- Rockets won five of last six games with Cleveland.
-- 76ers lost five of last six games with Chicago.
-- Pacers won their last three games with Memphis.
-- Pelicans lost their last five games with Miami.
-- Jazz won their last six games with Orlando.
-- Warriors lost their last four games with San Antonio.
-- Clippers won their last five games with Detroit.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CHARLOTTE is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 89.5, OPPONENT 100.1.
-- GOLDEN STATE is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.2, OPPONENT 87.4.
-- UTAH is 2-15 (-14.5 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.
The average score was UTAH 40.6, OPPONENT 51.8.
-- DETROIT is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was DETROIT 51.4, OPPONENT 55.7.
-- JACQUE VAUGHN is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was VAUGHN 94.5, OPPONENT 101.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DETROIT is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was DETROIT 97.8, OPPONENT 104.0.
-- CHICAGO is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 91.1, OPPONENT 82.3.
-- CHARLOTTE is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 52.8, OPPONENT 46.6.
-- SAN ANTONIO is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 45.5, OPPONENT 46.4.
-- TERRY STOTTS is 19-4 OVER (+14.6 Units) versus teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents as the coach of PORTLAND.
The average score was STOTTS 107.7, OPPONENT 106.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Any team with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(36-9 since 1996.) (80.0%, +27.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +101.4
The average score in these games was: Team 101, Opponent 92.4 (Average point differential = +8.6)
The situation's record this season is: (7-0, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0, +15 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-0, +20 units).
-- Play Against - Any team of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite.
(40-11 since 1996.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (39-12)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.8
The average score in these games was: Team 100.3, Opponent 92 (Average point differential = +8.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (41.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (INDIANA) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(56-22 since 1996.) (71.8%, +31.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.6
The average score in these games was: Team 90.8, Opponent 89.3 (Total points scored = 180.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (45.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points versus the first half line (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
(36-7 since 1996.) (83.7%, +28.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 50.8 (Average first half point differential = -2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (ORLANDO) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(51-19 since 1996.) (72.9%, +30.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.1, Opponent 48.4 (Total first half points scored = 94.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-9).
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