Service Plays Saturday 12/19/09

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vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 12/19/09 - 12:00 PM «Š
triple-dime bet 720 Kansas -19.0 (-110) SportBet vs 719 Michigan
Analysis: ‡

*** NCAABB 3* "BOOKIE BET" ***

Confirmed "BIG SLICK" Bet...from Bookie Bill....VR
 

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Kelso 12/17-12/23 Newsletter

12/17 = 1-3
12/18 = 3-2

Kelso says...

Kansas by 28 (take Michigan +19.5)
Notre Dame by 16 (take UCLA +9.5)
W. Kentucky by 5 (take Louisville -9.5)
Tennessee by 13 (take USC +11.5)
San Diego St by 8 (take Arizona St -3)
Indiana St by 12 (take Toledo +8)
Wichita St by 8 (take Texas Tech +4.5)
Kansas St by 10 (take Alabama +3)
N Mexico by 13 (take Creighton +11.5)
Kentucky by 35 (take Austin Peay +23)

Magic by 13 (take Portland +9)
Lakers by 15 [no line yet at betjm]
Suns by 14 [no line yet at betjm]
Are Kelso's picks on the left or in paranthesis? Thanks for any clarification.
 
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GamblersWorld

Tip of the Day - Dec. 19, 2009

Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NCAA Football

Game: 8:00PM St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida Knights vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Prediction: OVER 44.5

Current Line: Rutgers -1

Over/Under: 44.5

Reason: The Central Florida Knights and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at Tropicana Field in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

Oddsmakers currently have the Scarlet Knights listed as 1-point favorites versus the Knights, while the game's total is sitting at 44½.

Brett Hodges posted two touchdown passes to lead Central Florida to a 34-27 win over UAB in Week 13.

The Knights covered the 3-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 53.

Tom Savage threw for 153 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions for Rutgers in a 24-21 loss to West Virginia in Week 14.

The Scarlet Knights did not cover the 1.5-point spread, while the final score played just UNDER the posted total of 43.5.
 

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The Booooj

NFL-
20 units on New Orleans (-7.5) over Dallas

NCAA-
New Mexico Bowl-
10 Units on Fresno State (-10.5) over Wyoming

St. Petersburg Bowl

50 units on Rutgers (-2.5) over Central Florida
NBA-
10 units on Houson (-4) over Oklahoma City

NCAA-
10 units on Xavier (+6) over Butler
30 units on Duke (-8) over Gonzaga
 

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NELLY'S GREENSHEET


NEW MEXICO BOWL @Albuquerque, NM 3:30 PM
Fresno State (-10½) Wyoming (55)
RATING 2: Wyoming (+10½) over Fresno State

While Fresno State remains one of the upper echelon teams in the WAC this is a team that
continually fails to take the next step. In the last eight years Fresno State has had seven
winning seasons but the Bulldogs have not topped nine wins since ’01, and nine is the best
they can do this season. Fresno State Coach Pat Hill has a 4-5 record in bowl games but like
the Bulldogs seem to do in the regular season, the results have been better playing as
underdogs against major conference foes rather than as favorites. Fresno State has actually
lost outright in the previous two bowl games as favorites including last year’s New Mexico
Bowl, losing 40-35 to Colorado State. Wyoming finished just 6-6 but after a rough three game
losing streak where the Cowboys scored ten points, this team rallied to win two of its final
three games, with both wins coming on the road as underdogs. Wyoming won just five games
against FBS competition and all of those teams finished with losing records but the Fresno
State schedule rates even weaker for the season and the lone win against a winning team for
the Bulldogs came against 7-5 Idaho. Wyoming was actually an 8-3 ATS team on the season
while Fresno State has covered just seven times in the last 30 games as favorites. Statistically
Fresno State is the far better team on offense producing 34 points per game and 435 yards
per game but the defense has had issues. Despite winning four of the final five games of the
season, Fresno State was out-gained and out-rushed in all five of those games. Wyoming was
out-gained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season but blowout losses to BYU and TCU
factored considerably into those numbers with over 300 yard differentials. Wyoming played
fairly evenly with the rest of the schedule as the defense is much better than the overall
numbers indicate. Look for this to be a bigger game for a Wyoming team that is excited to be
in the postseason while Fresno State might have trouble rising to the occasion to finish the season strong.
FRESNO STATE BY 4



ST. PETERSBURG BOWL @St. Petersburg, FL 7:00 PM
Rutgers (-2½) Central Florida (44½)
RATING 3: Central Florida (+2½) over Rutgers

Greg Schiano has a 3-1 record in bowl games with his lone loss coming in a close game as a
big underdog. Rutgers has won its bowl game each of the last three years and the offense
usually comes in firing, having scored nearly 40 points per game in the four postseason
games. Rutgers has been a program happy to be in the postseason after a nearly 30-year
bowl drought but this season the expectations were higher and many projected the Scarlet
Knights to win the Big East. At 8-4 Rutgers never came close to those expectations and
despite a strong year for the Big East overall, Central Florida enters this game having played
the much tougher overall schedule. The Golden Knights enter this game having won five of
the final six games with the lone loss coming at Texas. This location will clearly favor Central
Florida making the trip across the state from Orlando and UCF was 9-2 ATS on the season as
one of the most profitable teams in the nation. QB play has been a problem for Rutgers all
season as freshman Tom Savage completed just 52 percent of his passes on the season.
Savage will need to make plays in this game as UCF owns a stingy run defense, allowing only
84 yards per game on the ground. Central Florida has been the more productive offensive
team and the strong defensive numbers for Rutgers were built on an incredibly weak nonconference
slate that featured two FCS foes. Central Florida lost two close conference games
early in the season but this team played extremely well down the stretch. Rutgers has been a
strong bowl performer but this looks like a situation where UCF will be the more motivated
Knights squad and can pull the upset.
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 6



Rating 4 – NEW ORLEANS (-7½) over Dallas
With this line over the key number of 7 our interest has faded but given the impressive
showings from the Saints at home in big games it still makes sense to lay the points. The Dallas December jinx is meaningless but the
Cowboys have not found ways to win in critical moments and games. If the Saints play for the perfect season they should pull away.
Saturday night NFL is back with a great opening match-up between the undefeated Saints
and the fading Cowboys. New Orleans has vowed to play all season and home field
advantage is not locked up just yet with Minnesota at 11-2. Dallas has lost back-to-back
games, blowing a great opportunity last week as three early scoring chances resulted in just
three points and allowed San Diego to get some momentum. Dallas closes with division
games the final two weeks and although this team is heading in the wrong direction, a loss
here would not eliminate playoff hopes. The Saints have failed to cover in five of the last
seven games but this line could be kept in check. The Saints have been dominant at home
this year and facing a team like the Cowboys will get the team’s attention. SAINTS BY 13
 

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THE GOLD SHEET


ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
UCF (8-4) vs. RUTGERS (8-4)
*UCF 21 - Rutgers 19

Head coach Greg Schiano has taken Rutgers from
perennial Big East punching bag to perennial post-season participant during
the last decade, and his Scarlet Knights have won their bowl game each of the
previous three seasons. Although UCF’s Conference USA title hopes were
irreparably damaged by September road losses at East Division rivals Southern
Miss & East Carolina, the Golden Knights (9-2 vs. the spread!) finished strong,
capturing their final six C-USA games while also mounting credible efforts vs.
Miami and at No. 2-ranked Texas (where George O’Leary’s plucky bunch trailed
just 21-3 early in the fourth quarter despite holding out starting QB Brett Hodges
& star RB Brynn Harvey with minor injuries).
This matchup is likely to be dominated by the defenses. Rutgers’ stop unit
(only 312 ypg) permitted 15 points or fewer in seven of its last 11 games,
allowing more than 24 only once during that span. UCF has begrudgingly
yielded foes just 83 ypg on the ground, ranking No. 4 in the nation behind only
the Longhorns and UT’s fellow “undefeateds” Alabama & TCU. Even though
touted true frosh WR Mohamed Sanu sparked the Scarlet Knights’ plodding
rushing attack down the stretch as a “Wildcat” formation QB, we doubt that
Rutgers will be able to establish a consistent ground game against the stingy,
veteran Golden Knight front 7. And, if play-action fakes aren’t buying extra time
for skittish true frosh signal caller Tom Savage (only 43%, 2 TDP, 4 ints. in last 3
games), the poor-protecting Scarlet Knight OL probably won’t be able to keep QBcrunching
UCF DEs Bruce Miller & Jarvis Geathers (combined 23 sacks!) at bay.
Although blitz-happy Rutgers possesses a penchant for “takeaways,” the
Golden Knights (40 ppg in last 3) were definitely jelling on offense late in the
campaign after mustering a nation’s-worst 230 ypg in 2008. Sr. QB Hodges
(1047 YP on 64% in his last 4 games) and soph RB Harvey (388 YR & 7 TDs
last 3), along with friendly Trop venue (St. Petersburg is just over 100 miles
from UCF campus), give the Knights in Gold a good chance to trump those
wearing Scarlet.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)




MEXICO BOWL
WYOMING (6-6) vs. FRESNO STATE (8-4
Fresno St. 27 - Wyoming 22

—Admittedly, Wyoming’s postseason credentials
are dubious at best, as the Cowboys barely scraped their way to bowl
eligibility courtesy of numerous hair-raising wins (four of them by 3 points or
fewer) and despite an offense that failed to generate a TD in three of its last six
games. Further, Wyo wasn’t within single digits vs. any of the bowl foes (Texas,
Air Force, Utah, BYU or TCU) it faced this season. Is it asking too much of the
Cowboys to stay competitive vs. potent Fresno?
Not necessarily, simply because the Bulldogs have far more flaws than the
aforementioned list of “bowlers” that beat the Cowboys earlier in the year.
Especially on the defensive side, where Fresno hardly distinguished itself when
ranking a poor 97th overall and allowing three different foes to crack the 50-point
barrier. Thus, the evolving Wyo spread installed by first-year HC Dave
Christensen (who coordinated recent potent Missouri versions featuring Chase
Daniel) might have a chance to do more business than usual. Although hardly
prolific with maturing true frosh QB Austyn Carta-Samuels at the controls,
Christensen’s “O” at least didn’t beat itself, guilty of only 13 giveaways (compared
to a crippling 36 for Joe Glenn’s last team a year ago) and rarely forced
a representative, upperclass-laden Cowboy “D” into dreaded “short field”
situations. By comparison, the Bulldogs committed almost twice as many TOs
(23), which could compromise their admitted firepower edge courtesy nowhealthy
RB Ryan Mathews (1664 YR).
Moreover, FSU’s postseason pointspread history under HC Pat Hill is formful,
covering all five chances as a dog but dropping all four vs. the line as chalk,
including LY in this game vs. Colorado State. TGS WAC sources also wonder
about the Bulldogs’ focus after an exhausting season-ending shootout Dec. 5 at
Illinois, and they confirmed reports that Hill has shown interest in the vacant
UNLV job. Those and other factors are enough to swing our support to a Wyo
bunch that offered good value (8-3 vs. line) all season.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 3-3)


NFL

KEY RELEASES
NEW ORLEANS by 21 over Dallas

After narrow road escapes at
Washington & Atlanta, expect New Orleans to eliminate such drama back at
the rowdy Superdome, where the Saints have regularly extended margins (10-
4 vs. line at home last 14). Sources say HC Sean Payton is indeed motivated
by a potential 16-0 regular season. And N.O. is not about to ease up until NFC
home-field edge is secured (it could happen this week). Dallas pass coverage
vulnerable recently, and pass-rushing LB Demarcus Ware (check status) was
injured last week. Tony Romo (5-10 SU as a starter in December) and rest of
Cowboys appear the in midst of another late-season eclipse. Wade Phillips is
0-6 vs. line on December road since ‘07! TV—NFL NETWORK
(06-New Orleans +7' 42-17...SR: Dallas 14-8)
*NEW ORLEANS 37 - Dallas 16
 

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MARC LAWRENCE

PLAYBOOK


NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno St over Wyoming by 6


ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Rutgers over Central Florida by 7







4* BEST BET
Dallas over NEW ORLEANS by 3


AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Play Against:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
 

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<dl><dt class="dtPgTop">vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 12/19/09 - 12:00 PM <sup> ͈ </sup>
</dt><dt> triple-dime bet 720 Kansas -19.0 (-110) SportBet vs 719 Michigan </dt><dd>Analysis: *** NCAABB 3* "BOOKI„E BET" ***
Confirmed "BIG SLICK" Bet...from Bookie Bill....VR


</dd></dl>
<dl><dt class="dtPgTop">vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 12/19/09 - 2:30 PM <sup> ͈ </sup>
</dt><dt> double-dime bet 802 Ohio -8.5 (-110) SportBet vs 801 Eastern Ky. </dt><dd>Analysis: “** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **


</dd></dl>
<dl><dt class="dtPgTop">vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 12/19/09 - 2:00 PM <sup> ͈ </sup>
</dt><dt> triple-dime bet 730 Texas -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 729 North Carolina </dt><dd>Analysis: *** NCAABB 3* PRIME-TIME GAME OF THE WEEK ***
Make sure that you shop this one...I have had no problems at all laying -6...A‹nd we've all seen just how much a 1/2 point here and there can make overall...VR


</dd></dl>
<dl><dt class="dtPgTop">vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 12/19/09 - 8:00 PM <sup> ͈ </sup>
</dt><dt> double-dime bet 785 SW Mo -1.0 (-110) SportBet vs 786 St. Louis </dt><dd>Analysis: ‰** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **</dd></dl>
 

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Scott spreitzer

3*.....north carolina +7

from
nc sports

sunday
nfl

private players hot line play......ravens

comp total ...pow
seattle/t.bay...under 39
 

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GOLDEN CONTENDER
On Saturday the system club play is on UAB. Game 759 at 6:3 eastern. UAB is in a real good non conference spot here tonight. They take on South Alabama knowing they are 14-2 vs Sun Belt Conference teams having covered 5 of the last 7 times. In this series they have won the last between the two teams. When UAB is a road favorite from 3.6 to 6 they have won all 13 times covering in 10 of the 13 wins. They are 5-1 after allowing 60 or less in their last game and have won 3 of their 4 games vs winning teams this year. South Alabama comes in off a close win vs Arky Little Rock and has been dreadful vs Conf. USA teams losing 17 of 24 times and 0-3 ats most recently. They have not covered a home game yet this season and have lost all 3 times vs winning teams on the year. Best of all is their 0-6 record as a home dog in this range. UAB will win and cover here in this one. In Late phone action we Continue to roll nailing the 30-3 NBA play on Friday and were in the midst of an 8th straight winning week. On Saturday I have a Triple system Bowl banger, A big power angle NFL side and 3 college hoops plays frm 23-2,24-4 and A Double dog dominator play that will win outright.In NBA Action I have the Dog of the month backed with a rare 28-4 system. All sports are on a major roll and we will do more damage on Saturday. Bowl packages are up as well. For the System club play take UAB tonight. RV
 

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Ethan Law

Over on his new website he gave out 2 Bonus Plays.

Wyoming +10.5
Under 44 C Fla/Rutgers
 

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Maximus early plays 12/19

NCAA BB 12/19/09 Early Card
BEST BET:
Take West Virginia Mountaineers -14.5 vs. Cleveland St. Vikings, Location: Wolstein Center – Cleveland, OH Time: 2:00pm EST.
EVALUATION: This game is being called the JOHN MCLENDON CLASSIC, and the 4-7 SU Vikings come into this game having lost 6 of their last 7 games. They have been having a hard time of things lately from the field, and their only win was against the non-board team Wilber Force. The Mountaineers come in undefeated at 7-0 SU, and in those 7 wins, only once have the Mountaineers not beaten their opponent by at least 14.5 points. After winning the Holiday Disney Tournament in Anaheim, Ca, the Mountaineers have outscored their two opponents by over 27 points a game. We see the Mountaineers having an easy time here, and winning this game rather easily..
PROJECTION: West Virginia 80 Cleveland St. 57
SOLIDS:------------------------------Projection:
Kansas -19.5 vs. Michigan ________________Kansas 81-51
Mississippi St. -3 vs. Houston ____________Miss St. 83-70
Wisc-Green Bay -9 vs. Youngstown St. __Wisc-Green Bay 81-66

OVER/UNDER
OVER 127 Bowling Green/Detroit ______________134

OTHER PROJECTIONS: Not recommended plays- just how we see the games
AWAY------------------------------Home Spread ---------------------------Home
VCU 66 _____________________ +4 _____________________Tulane 64
Fordham 51 _________________ -28.5 ___________________Villanova 75
Xavier 61 _____________________ -6 ____________________ Butler 74
UCLA 67 _____________________ -10 ____________________ Notre Dame 74
North Carolina 62 ______________ -6.5 ___________________Texas 74
Rice 58 ______________________ -12 ____________________LSU 67
Stanford 62 ___________________-5.5 ___________________ Northwestern 80
Bowling Green 64 _______________ -8.5 ___________________Detroit 70
Coll of Charleston 65 ____________-17.5 __________________Clemson 77
Eastern Kentucky 67 ____________ -10 ___________________Ohio 76
 
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Savannah Sports

Premium Picks For The Day



Todays Selections

NFL Football

3 (***) New Orleans Under 53.5

NCAA Bowl Games

3 (***) Wyoming +10.5

2 (**) Rutgers -140 (ML)

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde

Todays Selections

NCAA Basketball

1 (*) Texas -6.5
 

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