THE GOLD SHEET
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
UCF (8-4) vs. RUTGERS (8-4)
*UCF 21 - Rutgers 19
Head coach Greg Schiano has taken Rutgers from
perennial Big East punching bag to perennial post-season participant during
the last decade, and his Scarlet Knights have won their bowl game each of the
previous three seasons. Although UCF’s Conference USA title hopes were
irreparably damaged by September road losses at East Division rivals Southern
Miss & East Carolina, the Golden Knights (9-2 vs. the spread!) finished strong,
capturing their final six C-USA games while also mounting credible efforts vs.
Miami and at No. 2-ranked Texas (where George O’Leary’s plucky bunch trailed
just 21-3 early in the fourth quarter despite holding out starting QB Brett Hodges
& star RB Brynn Harvey with minor injuries).
This matchup is likely to be dominated by the defenses. Rutgers’ stop unit
(only 312 ypg) permitted 15 points or fewer in seven of its last 11 games,
allowing more than 24 only once during that span. UCF has begrudgingly
yielded foes just 83 ypg on the ground, ranking No. 4 in the nation behind only
the Longhorns and UT’s fellow “undefeateds” Alabama & TCU. Even though
touted true frosh WR Mohamed Sanu sparked the Scarlet Knights’ plodding
rushing attack down the stretch as a “Wildcat” formation QB, we doubt that
Rutgers will be able to establish a consistent ground game against the stingy,
veteran Golden Knight front 7. And, if play-action fakes aren’t buying extra time
for skittish true frosh signal caller Tom Savage (only 43%, 2 TDP, 4 ints. in last 3
games), the poor-protecting Scarlet Knight OL probably won’t be able to keep QBcrunching
UCF DEs Bruce Miller & Jarvis Geathers (combined 23 sacks!) at bay.
Although blitz-happy Rutgers possesses a penchant for “takeaways,” the
Golden Knights (40 ppg in last 3) were definitely jelling on offense late in the
campaign after mustering a nation’s-worst 230 ypg in 2008. Sr. QB Hodges
(1047 YP on 64% in his last 4 games) and soph RB Harvey (388 YR & 7 TDs
last 3), along with friendly Trop venue (St. Petersburg is just over 100 miles
from UCF campus), give the Knights in Gold a good chance to trump those
wearing Scarlet.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
MEXICO BOWL
WYOMING (6-6) vs. FRESNO STATE (8-4
Fresno St. 27 - Wyoming 22
—Admittedly, Wyoming’s postseason credentials
are dubious at best, as the Cowboys barely scraped their way to bowl
eligibility courtesy of numerous hair-raising wins (four of them by 3 points or
fewer) and despite an offense that failed to generate a TD in three of its last six
games. Further, Wyo wasn’t within single digits vs. any of the bowl foes (Texas,
Air Force, Utah, BYU or TCU) it faced this season. Is it asking too much of the
Cowboys to stay competitive vs. potent Fresno?
Not necessarily, simply because the Bulldogs have far more flaws than the
aforementioned list of “bowlers” that beat the Cowboys earlier in the year.
Especially on the defensive side, where Fresno hardly distinguished itself when
ranking a poor 97th overall and allowing three different foes to crack the 50-point
barrier. Thus, the evolving Wyo spread installed by first-year HC Dave
Christensen (who coordinated recent potent Missouri versions featuring Chase
Daniel) might have a chance to do more business than usual. Although hardly
prolific with maturing true frosh QB Austyn Carta-Samuels at the controls,
Christensen’s “O” at least didn’t beat itself, guilty of only 13 giveaways (compared
to a crippling 36 for Joe Glenn’s last team a year ago) and rarely forced
a representative, upperclass-laden Cowboy “D” into dreaded “short field”
situations. By comparison, the Bulldogs committed almost twice as many TOs
(23), which could compromise their admitted firepower edge courtesy nowhealthy
RB Ryan Mathews (1664 YR).
Moreover, FSU’s postseason pointspread history under HC Pat Hill is formful,
covering all five chances as a dog but dropping all four vs. the line as chalk,
including LY in this game vs. Colorado State. TGS WAC sources also wonder
about the Bulldogs’ focus after an exhausting season-ending shootout Dec. 5 at
Illinois, and they confirmed reports that Hill has shown interest in the vacant
UNLV job. Those and other factors are enough to swing our support to a Wyo
bunch that offered good value (8-3 vs. line) all season.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 3-3)
NFL
KEY RELEASES
NEW ORLEANS by 21 over Dallas
After narrow road escapes at
Washington & Atlanta, expect New Orleans to eliminate such drama back at
the rowdy Superdome, where the Saints have regularly extended margins (10-
4 vs. line at home last 14). Sources say HC Sean Payton is indeed motivated
by a potential 16-0 regular season. And N.O. is not about to ease up until NFC
home-field edge is secured (it could happen this week). Dallas pass coverage
vulnerable recently, and pass-rushing LB Demarcus Ware (check status) was
injured last week. Tony Romo (5-10 SU as a starter in December) and rest of
Cowboys appear the in midst of another late-season eclipse. Wade Phillips is
0-6 vs. line on December road since ‘07! TV—NFL NETWORK
(06-New Orleans +7' 42-17...SR: Dallas 14-8)
*NEW ORLEANS 37 - Dallas 16