Red Dog Sports ***4*** College Basketball First-Half Total (16-8 last 24 totals)
UNC at Texas 2pm
over 74' (1st Half)
Look for these two teams to play over in the first half. This game is being played at the Dallas Cowboy's new stadium and there should be 35,000 fans there. Expect a game with layups, 3's and foul shots as both can score. The second half may settle down but look for an over 74.5 to profit. Look for close to 80-82 points at the half.
UNC at Texas 2pm
over 74' (1st Half)
Look for these two teams to play over in the first half. This game is being played at the Dallas Cowboy's new stadium and there should be 35,000 fans there. Expect a game with layups, 3's and foul shots as both can score. The second half may settle down but look for an over 74.5 to profit. Look for close to 80-82 points at the half.
SPORTS WAGERS
Wyoming +10.5 over Fresno State
Fresno State is the sucker bet of 2009. The public has jumped all over Fresno State after an 8-4 season, forgetting the weak schedule and atrocious defense played by the Bulldogs throughout the season. Yes, Wyoming probably doesn’t deserve to play in this game with a 6-6 record but to borrow a quote from The Wire “Deserves got nothing to do with it.” Wyoming managed to win three games on the road and come out of MWC conference play with a respectable 4-4 record. They struggled to score points against Texas Christian, Brigham Young, and Texas but managed to score 30 against comparable Fresno State defenses like UNLV and Florida Atlantic. Fresno State allowed opponents to rack up 411 yards per game and ranked third to last in the FBS with only seven interceptions the entire season. They gave up 52 points to Illinois in their final game of the regular season and ranked dead last in the FBS with an astounding 6.2 rush yard per carry average against them. Simply put, the concerns about the Wyoming offense don’t apply to this game and that’s the first reason to seriously consider backing them. Fresno State will score no matter who they play but it’s the way they score you need to be concerned with. RB Ryan Mathews led the NCAA’s in rushing yards with 1664 and you can bet Fresno State will showcase him on national television. Fresno State’s run first offense will yield points but keep the clock moving and combined with the ease the Cowboys will have scoring it’s going to be very unlikely for this game to get out of hand. The style of offense Fresno State runs along with their horrific defense makes laying 10½ points far too risky. Wyoming can win this game outright with a few breaks but am more than happy to take the generous points on a neutral field. Play: Wyoming +10½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Wyoming +10.5 over Fresno State
Fresno State is the sucker bet of 2009. The public has jumped all over Fresno State after an 8-4 season, forgetting the weak schedule and atrocious defense played by the Bulldogs throughout the season. Yes, Wyoming probably doesn’t deserve to play in this game with a 6-6 record but to borrow a quote from The Wire “Deserves got nothing to do with it.” Wyoming managed to win three games on the road and come out of MWC conference play with a respectable 4-4 record. They struggled to score points against Texas Christian, Brigham Young, and Texas but managed to score 30 against comparable Fresno State defenses like UNLV and Florida Atlantic. Fresno State allowed opponents to rack up 411 yards per game and ranked third to last in the FBS with only seven interceptions the entire season. They gave up 52 points to Illinois in their final game of the regular season and ranked dead last in the FBS with an astounding 6.2 rush yard per carry average against them. Simply put, the concerns about the Wyoming offense don’t apply to this game and that’s the first reason to seriously consider backing them. Fresno State will score no matter who they play but it’s the way they score you need to be concerned with. RB Ryan Mathews led the NCAA’s in rushing yards with 1664 and you can bet Fresno State will showcase him on national television. Fresno State’s run first offense will yield points but keep the clock moving and combined with the ease the Cowboys will have scoring it’s going to be very unlikely for this game to get out of hand. The style of offense Fresno State runs along with their horrific defense makes laying 10½ points far too risky. Wyoming can win this game outright with a few breaks but am more than happy to take the generous points on a neutral field. Play: Wyoming +10½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Dallas (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS)
The undefeated Saints return to the Superdome to continue their march toward perfection against the suddenly struggling Cowboys, who desperately need to break their December hex to keep pace in the playoff chase.
New Orleans pulled out a narrow road victory for the second straight week last Sunday, edging Atlanta 26-23 after blowing a 14-point second-half lead. The Saints failed to cover as a hefty 10-point favorite, following their 33-30 overtime win at Washington as a nine-point chalk. New Orleans continues to boast the No. 1 offense in both yardage (426.1 yards per game) and scoring (35.8 yards per game), with the latter figure being nearly six points higher than the second-place Vikings (29.9 ppg).
The Saints’ defense is just 21st in yielding 347.6 ypg, but even with that, they’re outscoring opponents by more than two TDs per contest, as the defense surrenders 21.1 ppg. Additionally, New Orleans has the No. 2 turnover margin at plus-16.
Dallas is going on its seemingly annual late-season swoon, having dropped both its games this month to fall to 4-10 SU (2-12 ATS) in its last 14 December outings. On Sunday, the Pokes lost to San Diego 20-17 as a 3½-point home chalk, falling to 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Previously, the Cowboys were on a 6-1 SU tear (4-3 ATS) and at the top of the NFC East heading into this month; now they are clinging to the sixth seed as a wild-card prospect.
Dallas still fields the league’s third-best offense at 391.1 ypg, but the squad is only netting 22.8 ppg (13th). The defense has helped make up for that, though, ranking sixth in the league in points allowed at just 17.9 ppg.
These teams last met in December 2006, when New Orleans went to Dallas and administered a 42-17 road beatdown as a 7½-point underdog to move to 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five clashes in this rivalry, dating to the 1998 season. Furthermore, the Saints won from the underdog role in all five of those games, with the first three at the Superdome and the last two at Dallas.
The Saints are just 2-5 ATS since cashing in their first six games of the year and they’re on further ATS hiccups of 1-3-1 in December and 1-5 against NFC opponents. However, they still carry a plethora of positive pointspread runs, including 8-3 at home, 13-5 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home chalk, 10-2 giving 3½ to 10 points, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3 after an ATS loss.
The Cowboys shoulder nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 as an underdog, 1-4 on the road, 2-6 against winning teams and a pathetic 5-15-2 in December, including 0-6 ATS in their last six December road outings dating to 2007. Plus, Dallas has cashed in just three of its last 12 non-division road games.
New Orleans is on “over” rolls of 10-2 in December, 14-4-1 at the dome, 12-4-1 as a home chalk, 19-6-1 against the NFC, 18-8 following a SU win and a lengthy 47-22-2 against winning teams. On the flip side, Dallas is on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 6-2 after a SU loss and 14-6 when coming off a pointspread setback. Finally, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these squads going all the way back to 1994.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NEW MEXICO BOWL
(at Albuquerque, N.M.)
Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) vs. Fresno State (8-4, 7-4 ATS)
Two teams going in opposite directions kick off the bowl season at University Stadium as slumping Wyoming takes on the red-hot Bulldogs.
Wyoming lost four of six to end the season (4-2 ATS) but edged Colorado State 17-16 in Fort Collins, Colo., in the finale, cashing as a 2½-point underdog and earning itself a postseason bid for the first time in five years. The Cowboys were held to 10 points or less in each of their six losses, getting blanked three times. However, they were plus-7 in turnover margin, which helped them win five games by a touchdown or less and finish fifth in the Mountain West Conference under first-year coach Dave Christensen.
Fresno State wrapped up its regular season with a thrilling 53-52 win in Illinois when the Bulldogs scored with two seconds left and converted the two-point conversion when a tipped pass ended up in the hands of an offensive lineman, who bulled his way into the end zone for the win. Fresno enters this contest having won seven of its last eight games (5-3 ATS), scoring 30 points or more in each of the seven wins.
Wyoming last went bowling in 2004, when it upset UCLA 24-21 in the Las Vegas Bowl as a hefty 12½-point underdog.
This is Fresno State’s second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance and 10th postseason contest in the last 11 years. The Bulldogs, third-place finishers in the Western Athletic Conference, fell to Colorado State 40-35 in last year’s contest, losing outright as two-point favorites. Under 13-year head coach Pat Hill, Fresno State is 5-0 ATS as an underdog in bowl games, but 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
These teams met regularly in the 1990s when both were members of the WAC, with the home team taking each of the last six contests. The most meeting was in 1997 when Fresno State scored a 24-7 home win as a 6½-point chalk.
Wyoming’s offense is 112th in the nation (out of 120), managing just 298.7 total yards per game, and 111th in the country in scoring at just 16.9 points per contest. Defensively, the Cowboys are give up 395.1 total ypg, which ranks 82nd.
The Bulldogs rush for 231.6 ypg, the seventh-highest total in Division I-A, with RB Ryan Mathews doing the bulk of the damage, as he led the nation at 151.3 rushing ypg. Fresno scored 30 points or more in 10 of its 12 games, averaging 34.3 points per game, good for 14th nationally.
Wyoming is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 14-6 in non-conference games, 4-1 agaisnt WAC schools, 27-13 after a spread-cover and 6-2 as an underdog, but it is just 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are on ATS skids of 8-22 as a favorite, 1-6 against Mountain West teams and 9-26 on grass.
The Cowboys have stayed below the posted total in 13 of 19 non-conference games, but topped the total in five of seven against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Fresno State is on “over” runs of 6-2 in bowl games and 5-2 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
(at St. Petersburg, Fla.)
Central Florida (8-4, 9-2 ATS) vs. Rutgers (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
Playing what is virtually a home game, Central Florida doesn’t have far to travel as it battles Rutgers at Tropicana Field.
Central Florida lost its first two Conference USA games, then won the final six league contests in a row (5-1 ATS) to finish second in the East Division and earn this bowl bid. The Knights went to UAB in the regular-season finale and scored a 34-27 win as a three-point road favorite.
Rutgers finished in a three-way tie for fourth in the Big East, with losses coming to Pitt, West Virginia and Cincinnati – the league’s top three teams – as well as Syracuse. Despite falling to West Virginia 24-21 as a two-point home chalk in their finale, the Scarlet Knights are on a 4-2 SU and ATS run, winning three of four on the highway.
Central Florida is back in the postseason after going 4-8 last year. The Knights have never won a bowl game, suffering narrow losses to Mississippi State (10-3 in the 2007 Liberty Bowl) and Nevada (49-48 in the 2005 Hawaii Bowl) in their first two tries. Meanwhile, Rutgers is in its fifth straight bowl, having won each of the last three, including last year’s 29-23 victory over North Carolina State in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, pushing as a six-point favorite.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools. However, Central Florida has lost 15 straight games to Big East opponents.
UCF’s strength is on defense, which ranks fifth nationally in sacks (3.1 per game) and fourth against the run (82.5 rushing ypg allowed). Meanwhile, Rutgers RB Joe Martinek paced the offense with 923 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, with freshman QB Tom Savage throwing for 1,917 yards, 12 TDs and six INTs. Rutgers averaged 27.5 points a game this season, while allowing just 17.4.
UCF is just 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 against Big East teams and just 13-27-1 ATS in its last 31 non-conference games, but the team is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-0 away from home, 6-1 as underdogs, 4-0 this season on artificial turf and 8-3 after a straight-up win. Rutgers is on modest ATS streaks of 3-0-1 in bowl games, 4-1-1 in December, 4-1 against Conference USA teams and 3-1-1 in non-conference action.
For Central Florida, the under is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference games, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-2 after a straight-up win. The Scarlet Knights are on “under” runs of 8-3 overall, 6-0 in non-conference action, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Michigan (5-4, 1-5 ATS) at (1) Kansas (9-0, 4-2 ATS)
The top-ranked Jayhawks shoot for their 10th straight win to open the season when they host slumping Michigan at Phog Allen Fieldhouse.
The Wolverines are coming off Sunday’s 75-64 victory over Detroit, but came up short as a 12-point home underdog, their fifth consecutive non-cover in lined games. Since opening the season with three straight victories, Michigan has lost four of its last six, including a 68-52 setback at Utah in its only true road game so far.
Kansas has annihilated eight of its first nine opponents, the only close contest being a 57-55 victory over Memphis as a 10½-point favorite in on a neutral court in St. Louis, Mo. The Jayhawks’ other eight victories were by margins of 36, 50, 30, 37, 67, 12, 35 and 25 points. Most recently, Bill Self’s squad has routed Radford 99-64 as a 33-point home favorite on Dec. 9 and La Salle 90-65 as a 22½-point chalk in Kansas City last Saturday.
Michigan is 5-0 all-time against the Jayhawks, but the last meeting was in 1992, when the Wolverines cruised to an 86-74 victory.
For the season, Michigan is barely outscoring its opponents (67.9-65.6) and it has been outshot 46.3 percent (33.1 percent on three-pointers) to 40.3 percent (29.1 percent on three-pointers). Conversely, Kansas is averaging 90.3 ppg on 51.2 percent shooting (44 percent on three-pointers) while holding opponents to 57.7 ppg on 34.3 percent shooting (28.7 percent on three-pointers).
In addition to failing to cover in their last five lined outings, the Wolverines are in ATS funks of 4-10-1 on the highway, 1-4 against the Big 12, 0-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a SU victory. Kansas is on pointspread tears of 19-6-1 overall, 35-15-1 at home, 13-3 on Saturday, 19-9 in non-conference play and 14-6-1 after a SU win, but the Jayhawks have failed to cash in eight consecutive games against Big Ten opponents.
The under is on runs of 16-5-1 for Michigan on the road, 6-1 for Kansas against the Big Ten, 16-5 for Kansas after a SU victory and 5-1 for Kansas following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER
Stanford (5-4, 3-3-1 ATS) at Northwestern (8-1, 5-2 ATS)
Northwestern tries for a rare eighth straight victory as Stanford visits Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston, Ill., for in a Big Ten/Pac-10 clash.
The Cardinal’s two-game winning streak ended with Wednesday’s 71-70 home loss to Oklahoma State as a 2½-point favorite, their second straight non-cover following a 3-0 ATS run. On the bright side, Stanford has scored at least 70 points in six of its last eight games – averaging 79.3 ppg over the past three – and it has not lost consecutive contests all year.
The Wildcats have ripped off eight straight victories since losing 67-54 to No. 11 Butler as a 4½-point home underdog back on Nov. 18. Northwestern has posted three straight double-digit wins this month, including Wednesday’s 84-54 rout of Northern Florida as a 19½-point home chalk. The Wildcats have averaged 74.1 ppg in their eight victories, and they’ve held all eight of those opponents to 65 points or less, with four of the last six foes scoring 58 or less.
This is the fourth season in a row that these teams have squared off. Stanford has won the last three (2-1 ATS), including a 65-59 home victory as a 4½-point chalk exactly one year ago.
Stanford is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday outings, but from there the pointspread trends are all positive, including 12-4-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 versus the Big Ten, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-0-2 after a SU defeat and 7-3-2 after a non-cover. Like Stanford, the Wildcats have struggled on Saturday (2-5 ATS last seven), but they’ve cashed in four straight lined games overall.
The over is on runs of 17-8 for the Cardinal on the road, 5-1 for Stanford on Saturday, 20-8-1 for Northwestern at home and 11-2 for Northwestern at home against teams with a losing road mark. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 5-2 for Stanford overall, 4 -1 for Stanford against the Big Ten and 7-3 for the Wildcats after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(10) North Carolina (8-2, 4-4 ATS) vs. (2) Texas (9-0, 5-2 ATS)
(at Arlington, Texas)
The day’s only battle between Top 10 squads comes from Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where the 10th-ranked Tar Heels attempt to hand No. 2 Texas its first loss of the season.
After being held to a season-low in points in a 68-66 loss at Kentucky two Saturdays ago, North Carolina rebounded in a big way last Saturday, routing Presbyterian 103-64 in a non-lined home game. The Tar Heels have played just three games away from Chapel Hill, N.C., going 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. Also, their two losses this season came against teams currently ranked No. 3 (Kentucky) and No. 5 (Syracuse).
The Longhorns have prevailed by double digits in every game this season, with the closest contest being a 78-62 rout of Pittsburgh as a 7½-point chalk at Madison Square garden on Nov. 24. Texas has won its last four games – all at home against USC, Long Beach State, Texas State and Texas Pan-American – by respective margins of 19, 33, 33 and 62 points.
These teams met in the second round of the 2004 NCAA Tournament, with the Longhorns scoring a 78-75 victory as a one-point underdog.
North Carolina has scored at least 80 points in seven of its 10 games, averaging 84.4 ppg on 51.2 percent shooting. The Longhorns have bettered the Tar Heels’ offensive output, though, scoring 85.4 ppg (51.9 percent shooting), including averaging 99.3 ppg in the last three contests. Also, Texas rates a big edge on defense, allowing 53.8 ppg (31.6 percent shooting) while North Carolina has yielded 71 ppg (41.6 percent shooting). Only one opponent has tallied more than 62 points against Texas, with five scoring 54 points or less; the Tar Heels have surrendered more than 70 points seven times.
The Heels are on pointspread surges of 10-4 overall, 42-14 in non-conference play, 6-2 versus the Big 12, 7-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 on Saturday, 9-3 after a SU win, 9-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on Saturday. Texas is also riding a series of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-2 overall (all in non-conference), 5-2 against the ACC, 4-0 at neutral venues, 6-1 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU victory, but the ‘Horns have failed to cover in six of their last eight on Saturday.
The under is 4-0 in UNC’s last four on Saturday, but the over is 4-0 in Texas’ last four at neutral venues and 6-1 in its last seven against the ACC. Also, the 2004 meeting between these schools barely skipped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Xavier (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at (21) Butler (7-3, 4-6 ATS)
Butler returns to the court for the first time since outlasting Ohio State last Saturday, as it welcomes the Musketeers to Hinkle Fieldhouse for a non-conference clash.
Xavier has alternated SU wins and losses in its last seven contests and ATS wins and losses in its last seven lined games. On Sunday, the Musketeers outlasted then-No. 19 Cincinnati 83-79 in double-overtime and covered as a 3½-point home favorite. Terrell Holloway had 26 points while big man Jason Love contributed 19 rebounds in helping Xavier knockoff its crosstown rivals. The victory followed a 71-56 loss at Kansas State as a 6 ½-point road underdog, the Musketeers’ lone game as a visitor this season.
The Bulldogs rallied past No. 13 Ohio State 74-66, holding on to cover as a five-point home favorite. Butler is 3-0 at Hinkle Fieldhouse (1-2 ATS), averaging 77 ppg (46.1 percent shooting) while allowing 65 ppg (49.7 percent). The Bulldogs three losses this year came against Top 25 competition: 82-73 to No. 22 Minnesota; 70-69 to No. 19 Clemson; 72-65 to No. 15 Georgetown.
Butler upended Xavier 74-65 as an eight-point road underdog last year. Prior to that, these teams hadn’t met since 1997 and 1998, and Xavier won both those contests (1-1 ATS).
The Musketeers are on ATS upticks of 8-3 overall, 10-3 in non-league contests and 15-7-1 versus opponents with a winning record, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the highway. Meanwhile, with last Saturday’s spread-cover against Ohio State, Butler is now 39-18-1 ATS in its last 58 non-conference games, but the Bulldogs are otherwise in ATS funks of 4-10 overall, 2-7 at home, 3-7 against winning teams and 1-5 on Saturday.
Xavier is riding “under” streaks of 13-6-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 6-0 after a SU win and 5-0 after a non-cover. However, the Musketeers are 5-1-1 “over” in their last seven on Saturday, while Butler is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 on Saturday and 8-3 in non-league action. Finally, last year’s meeting between these schools at Xavier hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) Gonzaga (8-2, 3-3-1 ATS) vs. (7) Duke (8-1, 5-3 ATS)
(at New York)
Duke returns to its home away from home – Madison Square Garden – for the third time this season as it battles the Bulldogs in the day’s only other matchup between Top 25 squads.
Gonzaga had a five-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago, losing 77-75 to Wake Forest as a 6½-point home favorite, but then rebounded with a pair of double-digit wins over Augustana, Ill. (79-40 in a non-lined home game) and Davidson (103-91, pushing as a 12-point chalk in Seattle last Saturday). The Zags have scored more than 70 points in nine of 10 games this year, the only exception being a 61-59 overtime win over Cincinnati in the Maui Invitational championship game on Nov. 25.
The Blue Devils bounced back from their only loss of the season – 73-69 at Wisconsin – with a pair of non-league home wins over St. John’s on Dec. 5 (80-71, failing as a 17-point favorite) and Gardner-Webb on Tuesday (113-68, cashing as a 34½-point chalk). Duke has scored at least 68 points in seven of its first eight games – including topping triple digits three times in the last seven contests – but after allowing just 58.2 ppg in their first six games, the Blue Devils have surrendered 70.7 ppg in their last three.
Duke won its first two games at Madison Square Garden, topping Arizona State 64-53 as a 10-point favorite and pounding No. 13 UConn 68-59 as a 3½-point chalk to win the NIT Season Tip-Off. The Blue Devils are 12-1 in their last 13 visits to the Garden, including an ongoing five-game winning streak. One of Duke’s victories at MSG came against Gonzaga exactly three years ago, a 61-54 triumph as a three-point chalk.
Both teams can fill the bucket – Gonzaga shoots 49.4 percent from the field; Duke shoots 47.8 percent – and both can play defense, with Gonzaga holding opponents to 41.3 percent on field goals and the Blue Devils a smidge better at 39 percent.
The Bulldogs are in ATS slumps of 2-5-1 on Saturday, 4-11-1 in non-conference play and 7-15 against winning teams. Duke is 1-4 ATS in its last five on Saturday, 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a non-cover and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a victory of more than 20 points.
Gonzaga carries “over” runs of 19-7 overall in lined play, 9-1 in non-league contests, 4-1 against the ACC, 6-1 at neutral sites and 14-3 following a victory. Also, Duke has topped the total in nine of its last 13 non-conference games, but the Blue Devils carry “under” trends of 13-4 at neutral sites, 9-2 after a victory of more than 20 points and 17-6 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
(17) Kansas State (9-1, 5-2 ATS) vs. Alabama (7-3, 4-3 ATS)
(at Mobile, Ala.)
For the second straight Saturday, the Crimson Tide play a Top 20 opponent in their home state as they match up against newly ranked Kansas State at the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Ala.
The Wildcats ran their winning streak to six in a row when they went to Las Vegas last Saturday and destroyed 18th-ranked UNLV 95-80 as a 2½-point road underdog. Kansas State shot a season-best 57.1 percent from the field (28-for-49), including 60.9 percent from three-point land (14-for-23), and the 95 points were a season high. The Wildcats’ last three victories have been by 15 points or more against UNLV, Xavier (71-56) and Washington State (85-69), and they have their highest national ranking since February 1988.
Alabama fell 73-65 to fifth-ranked Purdue as a six-point home underdog last Saturday, ending a three-game winning streak (2-0 ATS). The Crimson Tide blew a 48-32 second-half lead to the Boilermakers, making just three baskets in the final 14 minutes, including none in the final 8:45. However, Alabama rebounded with a 60-45 rout of Samford on Wednesday, barely cashing as a 14-point home favorite.
The only previous battle between these squads came in 1994, with Alabama rolling to a 79-48 victory.
The Wildcats have cashed in four straight games overall, and they’re 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 Saturday contests and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight games against SEC opponents, going 0-2-2 ATS. Alabama is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at neutral sites, but has come up short in four of its last five after an ATS win.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for Kansas State overall, 4-0 for Kansas State on Saturday, 9-4 for Alabama on neutral courts, 8-2 for Alabama after a SU victory and 7-1 for Alabama after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE and OVER
NFL
Dallas (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS)
The undefeated Saints return to the Superdome to continue their march toward perfection against the suddenly struggling Cowboys, who desperately need to break their December hex to keep pace in the playoff chase.
New Orleans pulled out a narrow road victory for the second straight week last Sunday, edging Atlanta 26-23 after blowing a 14-point second-half lead. The Saints failed to cover as a hefty 10-point favorite, following their 33-30 overtime win at Washington as a nine-point chalk. New Orleans continues to boast the No. 1 offense in both yardage (426.1 yards per game) and scoring (35.8 yards per game), with the latter figure being nearly six points higher than the second-place Vikings (29.9 ppg).
The Saints’ defense is just 21st in yielding 347.6 ypg, but even with that, they’re outscoring opponents by more than two TDs per contest, as the defense surrenders 21.1 ppg. Additionally, New Orleans has the No. 2 turnover margin at plus-16.
Dallas is going on its seemingly annual late-season swoon, having dropped both its games this month to fall to 4-10 SU (2-12 ATS) in its last 14 December outings. On Sunday, the Pokes lost to San Diego 20-17 as a 3½-point home chalk, falling to 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Previously, the Cowboys were on a 6-1 SU tear (4-3 ATS) and at the top of the NFC East heading into this month; now they are clinging to the sixth seed as a wild-card prospect.
Dallas still fields the league’s third-best offense at 391.1 ypg, but the squad is only netting 22.8 ppg (13th). The defense has helped make up for that, though, ranking sixth in the league in points allowed at just 17.9 ppg.
These teams last met in December 2006, when New Orleans went to Dallas and administered a 42-17 road beatdown as a 7½-point underdog to move to 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five clashes in this rivalry, dating to the 1998 season. Furthermore, the Saints won from the underdog role in all five of those games, with the first three at the Superdome and the last two at Dallas.
The Saints are just 2-5 ATS since cashing in their first six games of the year and they’re on further ATS hiccups of 1-3-1 in December and 1-5 against NFC opponents. However, they still carry a plethora of positive pointspread runs, including 8-3 at home, 13-5 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home chalk, 10-2 giving 3½ to 10 points, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3 after an ATS loss.
The Cowboys shoulder nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 as an underdog, 1-4 on the road, 2-6 against winning teams and a pathetic 5-15-2 in December, including 0-6 ATS in their last six December road outings dating to 2007. Plus, Dallas has cashed in just three of its last 12 non-division road games.
New Orleans is on “over” rolls of 10-2 in December, 14-4-1 at the dome, 12-4-1 as a home chalk, 19-6-1 against the NFC, 18-8 following a SU win and a lengthy 47-22-2 against winning teams. On the flip side, Dallas is on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 6-2 after a SU loss and 14-6 when coming off a pointspread setback. Finally, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these squads going all the way back to 1994.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NEW MEXICO BOWL
(at Albuquerque, N.M.)
Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) vs. Fresno State (8-4, 7-4 ATS)
Two teams going in opposite directions kick off the bowl season at University Stadium as slumping Wyoming takes on the red-hot Bulldogs.
Wyoming lost four of six to end the season (4-2 ATS) but edged Colorado State 17-16 in Fort Collins, Colo., in the finale, cashing as a 2½-point underdog and earning itself a postseason bid for the first time in five years. The Cowboys were held to 10 points or less in each of their six losses, getting blanked three times. However, they were plus-7 in turnover margin, which helped them win five games by a touchdown or less and finish fifth in the Mountain West Conference under first-year coach Dave Christensen.
Fresno State wrapped up its regular season with a thrilling 53-52 win in Illinois when the Bulldogs scored with two seconds left and converted the two-point conversion when a tipped pass ended up in the hands of an offensive lineman, who bulled his way into the end zone for the win. Fresno enters this contest having won seven of its last eight games (5-3 ATS), scoring 30 points or more in each of the seven wins.
Wyoming last went bowling in 2004, when it upset UCLA 24-21 in the Las Vegas Bowl as a hefty 12½-point underdog.
This is Fresno State’s second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance and 10th postseason contest in the last 11 years. The Bulldogs, third-place finishers in the Western Athletic Conference, fell to Colorado State 40-35 in last year’s contest, losing outright as two-point favorites. Under 13-year head coach Pat Hill, Fresno State is 5-0 ATS as an underdog in bowl games, but 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
These teams met regularly in the 1990s when both were members of the WAC, with the home team taking each of the last six contests. The most meeting was in 1997 when Fresno State scored a 24-7 home win as a 6½-point chalk.
Wyoming’s offense is 112th in the nation (out of 120), managing just 298.7 total yards per game, and 111th in the country in scoring at just 16.9 points per contest. Defensively, the Cowboys are give up 395.1 total ypg, which ranks 82nd.
The Bulldogs rush for 231.6 ypg, the seventh-highest total in Division I-A, with RB Ryan Mathews doing the bulk of the damage, as he led the nation at 151.3 rushing ypg. Fresno scored 30 points or more in 10 of its 12 games, averaging 34.3 points per game, good for 14th nationally.
Wyoming is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 14-6 in non-conference games, 4-1 agaisnt WAC schools, 27-13 after a spread-cover and 6-2 as an underdog, but it is just 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are on ATS skids of 8-22 as a favorite, 1-6 against Mountain West teams and 9-26 on grass.
The Cowboys have stayed below the posted total in 13 of 19 non-conference games, but topped the total in five of seven against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Fresno State is on “over” runs of 6-2 in bowl games and 5-2 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
(at St. Petersburg, Fla.)
Central Florida (8-4, 9-2 ATS) vs. Rutgers (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
Playing what is virtually a home game, Central Florida doesn’t have far to travel as it battles Rutgers at Tropicana Field.
Central Florida lost its first two Conference USA games, then won the final six league contests in a row (5-1 ATS) to finish second in the East Division and earn this bowl bid. The Knights went to UAB in the regular-season finale and scored a 34-27 win as a three-point road favorite.
Rutgers finished in a three-way tie for fourth in the Big East, with losses coming to Pitt, West Virginia and Cincinnati – the league’s top three teams – as well as Syracuse. Despite falling to West Virginia 24-21 as a two-point home chalk in their finale, the Scarlet Knights are on a 4-2 SU and ATS run, winning three of four on the highway.
Central Florida is back in the postseason after going 4-8 last year. The Knights have never won a bowl game, suffering narrow losses to Mississippi State (10-3 in the 2007 Liberty Bowl) and Nevada (49-48 in the 2005 Hawaii Bowl) in their first two tries. Meanwhile, Rutgers is in its fifth straight bowl, having won each of the last three, including last year’s 29-23 victory over North Carolina State in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, pushing as a six-point favorite.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools. However, Central Florida has lost 15 straight games to Big East opponents.
UCF’s strength is on defense, which ranks fifth nationally in sacks (3.1 per game) and fourth against the run (82.5 rushing ypg allowed). Meanwhile, Rutgers RB Joe Martinek paced the offense with 923 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, with freshman QB Tom Savage throwing for 1,917 yards, 12 TDs and six INTs. Rutgers averaged 27.5 points a game this season, while allowing just 17.4.
UCF is just 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 against Big East teams and just 13-27-1 ATS in its last 31 non-conference games, but the team is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-0 away from home, 6-1 as underdogs, 4-0 this season on artificial turf and 8-3 after a straight-up win. Rutgers is on modest ATS streaks of 3-0-1 in bowl games, 4-1-1 in December, 4-1 against Conference USA teams and 3-1-1 in non-conference action.
For Central Florida, the under is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference games, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-2 after a straight-up win. The Scarlet Knights are on “under” runs of 8-3 overall, 6-0 in non-conference action, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Michigan (5-4, 1-5 ATS) at (1) Kansas (9-0, 4-2 ATS)
The top-ranked Jayhawks shoot for their 10th straight win to open the season when they host slumping Michigan at Phog Allen Fieldhouse.
The Wolverines are coming off Sunday’s 75-64 victory over Detroit, but came up short as a 12-point home underdog, their fifth consecutive non-cover in lined games. Since opening the season with three straight victories, Michigan has lost four of its last six, including a 68-52 setback at Utah in its only true road game so far.
Kansas has annihilated eight of its first nine opponents, the only close contest being a 57-55 victory over Memphis as a 10½-point favorite in on a neutral court in St. Louis, Mo. The Jayhawks’ other eight victories were by margins of 36, 50, 30, 37, 67, 12, 35 and 25 points. Most recently, Bill Self’s squad has routed Radford 99-64 as a 33-point home favorite on Dec. 9 and La Salle 90-65 as a 22½-point chalk in Kansas City last Saturday.
Michigan is 5-0 all-time against the Jayhawks, but the last meeting was in 1992, when the Wolverines cruised to an 86-74 victory.
For the season, Michigan is barely outscoring its opponents (67.9-65.6) and it has been outshot 46.3 percent (33.1 percent on three-pointers) to 40.3 percent (29.1 percent on three-pointers). Conversely, Kansas is averaging 90.3 ppg on 51.2 percent shooting (44 percent on three-pointers) while holding opponents to 57.7 ppg on 34.3 percent shooting (28.7 percent on three-pointers).
In addition to failing to cover in their last five lined outings, the Wolverines are in ATS funks of 4-10-1 on the highway, 1-4 against the Big 12, 0-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a SU victory. Kansas is on pointspread tears of 19-6-1 overall, 35-15-1 at home, 13-3 on Saturday, 19-9 in non-conference play and 14-6-1 after a SU win, but the Jayhawks have failed to cash in eight consecutive games against Big Ten opponents.
The under is on runs of 16-5-1 for Michigan on the road, 6-1 for Kansas against the Big Ten, 16-5 for Kansas after a SU victory and 5-1 for Kansas following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER
Stanford (5-4, 3-3-1 ATS) at Northwestern (8-1, 5-2 ATS)
Northwestern tries for a rare eighth straight victory as Stanford visits Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston, Ill., for in a Big Ten/Pac-10 clash.
The Cardinal’s two-game winning streak ended with Wednesday’s 71-70 home loss to Oklahoma State as a 2½-point favorite, their second straight non-cover following a 3-0 ATS run. On the bright side, Stanford has scored at least 70 points in six of its last eight games – averaging 79.3 ppg over the past three – and it has not lost consecutive contests all year.
The Wildcats have ripped off eight straight victories since losing 67-54 to No. 11 Butler as a 4½-point home underdog back on Nov. 18. Northwestern has posted three straight double-digit wins this month, including Wednesday’s 84-54 rout of Northern Florida as a 19½-point home chalk. The Wildcats have averaged 74.1 ppg in their eight victories, and they’ve held all eight of those opponents to 65 points or less, with four of the last six foes scoring 58 or less.
This is the fourth season in a row that these teams have squared off. Stanford has won the last three (2-1 ATS), including a 65-59 home victory as a 4½-point chalk exactly one year ago.
Stanford is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday outings, but from there the pointspread trends are all positive, including 12-4-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 versus the Big Ten, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-0-2 after a SU defeat and 7-3-2 after a non-cover. Like Stanford, the Wildcats have struggled on Saturday (2-5 ATS last seven), but they’ve cashed in four straight lined games overall.
The over is on runs of 17-8 for the Cardinal on the road, 5-1 for Stanford on Saturday, 20-8-1 for Northwestern at home and 11-2 for Northwestern at home against teams with a losing road mark. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 5-2 for Stanford overall, 4 -1 for Stanford against the Big Ten and 7-3 for the Wildcats after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(10) North Carolina (8-2, 4-4 ATS) vs. (2) Texas (9-0, 5-2 ATS)
(at Arlington, Texas)
The day’s only battle between Top 10 squads comes from Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where the 10th-ranked Tar Heels attempt to hand No. 2 Texas its first loss of the season.
After being held to a season-low in points in a 68-66 loss at Kentucky two Saturdays ago, North Carolina rebounded in a big way last Saturday, routing Presbyterian 103-64 in a non-lined home game. The Tar Heels have played just three games away from Chapel Hill, N.C., going 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. Also, their two losses this season came against teams currently ranked No. 3 (Kentucky) and No. 5 (Syracuse).
The Longhorns have prevailed by double digits in every game this season, with the closest contest being a 78-62 rout of Pittsburgh as a 7½-point chalk at Madison Square garden on Nov. 24. Texas has won its last four games – all at home against USC, Long Beach State, Texas State and Texas Pan-American – by respective margins of 19, 33, 33 and 62 points.
These teams met in the second round of the 2004 NCAA Tournament, with the Longhorns scoring a 78-75 victory as a one-point underdog.
North Carolina has scored at least 80 points in seven of its 10 games, averaging 84.4 ppg on 51.2 percent shooting. The Longhorns have bettered the Tar Heels’ offensive output, though, scoring 85.4 ppg (51.9 percent shooting), including averaging 99.3 ppg in the last three contests. Also, Texas rates a big edge on defense, allowing 53.8 ppg (31.6 percent shooting) while North Carolina has yielded 71 ppg (41.6 percent shooting). Only one opponent has tallied more than 62 points against Texas, with five scoring 54 points or less; the Tar Heels have surrendered more than 70 points seven times.
The Heels are on pointspread surges of 10-4 overall, 42-14 in non-conference play, 6-2 versus the Big 12, 7-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 on Saturday, 9-3 after a SU win, 9-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on Saturday. Texas is also riding a series of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-2 overall (all in non-conference), 5-2 against the ACC, 4-0 at neutral venues, 6-1 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU victory, but the ‘Horns have failed to cover in six of their last eight on Saturday.
The under is 4-0 in UNC’s last four on Saturday, but the over is 4-0 in Texas’ last four at neutral venues and 6-1 in its last seven against the ACC. Also, the 2004 meeting between these schools barely skipped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Xavier (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at (21) Butler (7-3, 4-6 ATS)
Butler returns to the court for the first time since outlasting Ohio State last Saturday, as it welcomes the Musketeers to Hinkle Fieldhouse for a non-conference clash.
Xavier has alternated SU wins and losses in its last seven contests and ATS wins and losses in its last seven lined games. On Sunday, the Musketeers outlasted then-No. 19 Cincinnati 83-79 in double-overtime and covered as a 3½-point home favorite. Terrell Holloway had 26 points while big man Jason Love contributed 19 rebounds in helping Xavier knockoff its crosstown rivals. The victory followed a 71-56 loss at Kansas State as a 6 ½-point road underdog, the Musketeers’ lone game as a visitor this season.
The Bulldogs rallied past No. 13 Ohio State 74-66, holding on to cover as a five-point home favorite. Butler is 3-0 at Hinkle Fieldhouse (1-2 ATS), averaging 77 ppg (46.1 percent shooting) while allowing 65 ppg (49.7 percent). The Bulldogs three losses this year came against Top 25 competition: 82-73 to No. 22 Minnesota; 70-69 to No. 19 Clemson; 72-65 to No. 15 Georgetown.
Butler upended Xavier 74-65 as an eight-point road underdog last year. Prior to that, these teams hadn’t met since 1997 and 1998, and Xavier won both those contests (1-1 ATS).
The Musketeers are on ATS upticks of 8-3 overall, 10-3 in non-league contests and 15-7-1 versus opponents with a winning record, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the highway. Meanwhile, with last Saturday’s spread-cover against Ohio State, Butler is now 39-18-1 ATS in its last 58 non-conference games, but the Bulldogs are otherwise in ATS funks of 4-10 overall, 2-7 at home, 3-7 against winning teams and 1-5 on Saturday.
Xavier is riding “under” streaks of 13-6-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 6-0 after a SU win and 5-0 after a non-cover. However, the Musketeers are 5-1-1 “over” in their last seven on Saturday, while Butler is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 on Saturday and 8-3 in non-league action. Finally, last year’s meeting between these schools at Xavier hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) Gonzaga (8-2, 3-3-1 ATS) vs. (7) Duke (8-1, 5-3 ATS)
(at New York)
Duke returns to its home away from home – Madison Square Garden – for the third time this season as it battles the Bulldogs in the day’s only other matchup between Top 25 squads.
Gonzaga had a five-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago, losing 77-75 to Wake Forest as a 6½-point home favorite, but then rebounded with a pair of double-digit wins over Augustana, Ill. (79-40 in a non-lined home game) and Davidson (103-91, pushing as a 12-point chalk in Seattle last Saturday). The Zags have scored more than 70 points in nine of 10 games this year, the only exception being a 61-59 overtime win over Cincinnati in the Maui Invitational championship game on Nov. 25.
The Blue Devils bounced back from their only loss of the season – 73-69 at Wisconsin – with a pair of non-league home wins over St. John’s on Dec. 5 (80-71, failing as a 17-point favorite) and Gardner-Webb on Tuesday (113-68, cashing as a 34½-point chalk). Duke has scored at least 68 points in seven of its first eight games – including topping triple digits three times in the last seven contests – but after allowing just 58.2 ppg in their first six games, the Blue Devils have surrendered 70.7 ppg in their last three.
Duke won its first two games at Madison Square Garden, topping Arizona State 64-53 as a 10-point favorite and pounding No. 13 UConn 68-59 as a 3½-point chalk to win the NIT Season Tip-Off. The Blue Devils are 12-1 in their last 13 visits to the Garden, including an ongoing five-game winning streak. One of Duke’s victories at MSG came against Gonzaga exactly three years ago, a 61-54 triumph as a three-point chalk.
Both teams can fill the bucket – Gonzaga shoots 49.4 percent from the field; Duke shoots 47.8 percent – and both can play defense, with Gonzaga holding opponents to 41.3 percent on field goals and the Blue Devils a smidge better at 39 percent.
The Bulldogs are in ATS slumps of 2-5-1 on Saturday, 4-11-1 in non-conference play and 7-15 against winning teams. Duke is 1-4 ATS in its last five on Saturday, 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a non-cover and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a victory of more than 20 points.
Gonzaga carries “over” runs of 19-7 overall in lined play, 9-1 in non-league contests, 4-1 against the ACC, 6-1 at neutral sites and 14-3 following a victory. Also, Duke has topped the total in nine of its last 13 non-conference games, but the Blue Devils carry “under” trends of 13-4 at neutral sites, 9-2 after a victory of more than 20 points and 17-6 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
(17) Kansas State (9-1, 5-2 ATS) vs. Alabama (7-3, 4-3 ATS)
(at Mobile, Ala.)
For the second straight Saturday, the Crimson Tide play a Top 20 opponent in their home state as they match up against newly ranked Kansas State at the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Ala.
The Wildcats ran their winning streak to six in a row when they went to Las Vegas last Saturday and destroyed 18th-ranked UNLV 95-80 as a 2½-point road underdog. Kansas State shot a season-best 57.1 percent from the field (28-for-49), including 60.9 percent from three-point land (14-for-23), and the 95 points were a season high. The Wildcats’ last three victories have been by 15 points or more against UNLV, Xavier (71-56) and Washington State (85-69), and they have their highest national ranking since February 1988.
Alabama fell 73-65 to fifth-ranked Purdue as a six-point home underdog last Saturday, ending a three-game winning streak (2-0 ATS). The Crimson Tide blew a 48-32 second-half lead to the Boilermakers, making just three baskets in the final 14 minutes, including none in the final 8:45. However, Alabama rebounded with a 60-45 rout of Samford on Wednesday, barely cashing as a 14-point home favorite.
The only previous battle between these squads came in 1994, with Alabama rolling to a 79-48 victory.
The Wildcats have cashed in four straight games overall, and they’re 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 Saturday contests and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight games against SEC opponents, going 0-2-2 ATS. Alabama is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at neutral sites, but has come up short in four of its last five after an ATS win.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for Kansas State overall, 4-0 for Kansas State on Saturday, 9-4 for Alabama on neutral courts, 8-2 for Alabama after a SU victory and 7-1 for Alabama after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE and OVER
B LANG
Saturday's Selections ...
40 DIME - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - (if 7 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 7. Never get beat by the hook) - The nightmare gets worse for the Cowboys tonight.
This Dallas team is going down in history as one of the worst December teams ever in the NFL.
First let's start with 3-15-2 ATS their last 20 games played in this month, including 0-2 already this year with the loss at New York against the Giants, and last week at home to the Chargers.
Let me also point out they are 3-10 ATS last 13 on the road.
The biggest thing that now jumps out at me about this football team is the fact they have only beaten one team this year with a winning record and that was Eagles 20-16 when Philly wasn't playing very well.
They have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year, and for them to struggle the way they have going 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS is insane. This is an overrated football team that has imploded on the road this year.
Yes, they beat the Bucs to open the year on the road, the aforementioned Eagles and the Chiefs - a game they should of lost before just getting by in OT.
Other than that, they have been flat out embarrassing.
Terrible effort at Green Bay in a horrific offense display 17-7. At Denver 17-10, and the implosion 2 weeks ago at New York against the Giants.
Now they have to travel on a short week to take on the best team in the NFC that has waited 2 weeks to get back home and hammer somebody after 2 lackluster efforts on the road at Washington and Atlanta.
This is going to be a long night for the Dallas defense.
In their 6 home games this year they have been flat out dominante, winning by margins of 18, 14, 21, 8, 10 and 21.
Inside those wins you will see the Jets and the # 1 defense in the league lose 24-10, the Giants 48-29 and lastly the Patriots 38-17. They did have Atlanta down 23-9 at the start of the second half before falling asleep at the wheel, and allowing the Falcons to make a game of it.
The Dallas Cowboys just happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and if you think Tony Romo is going to have a great day, he needs to call Tom Brady and have a quick conversation based on what happen to Tom Terrific a couple of Mondays ago.
I have no reservations whatsoever laying this number in what I feel will be a double digit win by the Saints, and a game I feel will go just about the same way the Patriots game did and that is a 3 touchdown blowout.
10 DIME - WYOMING COWBOYS - Just don't trust Fresno State laying double digits in a bowl game.
You look at this team as a bowl favorite and you will see lack of effort every time.
In their 3 roles as a favorite they were beaten 40-35 last year by Colorado State as a 2 1/2 point favorite, in 2005 lost to Tulsa 31-24 as a 7 point favorite, and in 2000 they lost to Air Force 37-34 as a 4 1/2 point favorite.
Hard motivating kids to play a bowl game when they had bigger plans when the season started, and they go play in New Mexico against a team like Wyoming.
As for the Cowboys, they have played hard all year long as since the 4th week of the season only 3 teams have beaten them by more than 10 points and that was Utah, BYU and TCU. Not exactly 3 bad teams to get beat by.
This Wyoming team will play this game like it's their Super Bbowl, will clearly have more motivation and will be glad to be here.
I am going to grab the double digits with the team that has gone a very nice 8-3 ATS this year and look to cash in with them one more time.
10 DIME - GONZAGA BULLDOGS - I will gladly look to cash in on this inflated Duke public line all day long.
Across the board I can't think of a team that matches up this good with Duke, and won't be intimidated by playing at Madison Square Garden.
Only two teams have beaten the 'Zags this year, and that was Wake Forest by 2, and Michigan State by 4. That is how competitive this Gonzaga team has been.
Duke is Duke, and they are crusing along with just 1 loss this year and that was at Wisconsin and although I know the 'Zags have to play great basketball to win this game outright, they most certainly match up well with the Blue Devils in what I feel will be a fantastic game wire to wire.
There is value with the Bulldogs here, and the public continues to have a fantastic fascination with the Dookies and because of that, I will gladly grab the line value with the 'Zags in a game I feel goes right down to the wire.
Saturday's Selections ...
40 DIME - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - (if 7 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 7. Never get beat by the hook) - The nightmare gets worse for the Cowboys tonight.
This Dallas team is going down in history as one of the worst December teams ever in the NFL.
First let's start with 3-15-2 ATS their last 20 games played in this month, including 0-2 already this year with the loss at New York against the Giants, and last week at home to the Chargers.
Let me also point out they are 3-10 ATS last 13 on the road.
The biggest thing that now jumps out at me about this football team is the fact they have only beaten one team this year with a winning record and that was Eagles 20-16 when Philly wasn't playing very well.
They have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year, and for them to struggle the way they have going 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS is insane. This is an overrated football team that has imploded on the road this year.
Yes, they beat the Bucs to open the year on the road, the aforementioned Eagles and the Chiefs - a game they should of lost before just getting by in OT.
Other than that, they have been flat out embarrassing.
Terrible effort at Green Bay in a horrific offense display 17-7. At Denver 17-10, and the implosion 2 weeks ago at New York against the Giants.
Now they have to travel on a short week to take on the best team in the NFC that has waited 2 weeks to get back home and hammer somebody after 2 lackluster efforts on the road at Washington and Atlanta.
This is going to be a long night for the Dallas defense.
In their 6 home games this year they have been flat out dominante, winning by margins of 18, 14, 21, 8, 10 and 21.
Inside those wins you will see the Jets and the # 1 defense in the league lose 24-10, the Giants 48-29 and lastly the Patriots 38-17. They did have Atlanta down 23-9 at the start of the second half before falling asleep at the wheel, and allowing the Falcons to make a game of it.
The Dallas Cowboys just happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and if you think Tony Romo is going to have a great day, he needs to call Tom Brady and have a quick conversation based on what happen to Tom Terrific a couple of Mondays ago.
I have no reservations whatsoever laying this number in what I feel will be a double digit win by the Saints, and a game I feel will go just about the same way the Patriots game did and that is a 3 touchdown blowout.
10 DIME - WYOMING COWBOYS - Just don't trust Fresno State laying double digits in a bowl game.
You look at this team as a bowl favorite and you will see lack of effort every time.
In their 3 roles as a favorite they were beaten 40-35 last year by Colorado State as a 2 1/2 point favorite, in 2005 lost to Tulsa 31-24 as a 7 point favorite, and in 2000 they lost to Air Force 37-34 as a 4 1/2 point favorite.
Hard motivating kids to play a bowl game when they had bigger plans when the season started, and they go play in New Mexico against a team like Wyoming.
As for the Cowboys, they have played hard all year long as since the 4th week of the season only 3 teams have beaten them by more than 10 points and that was Utah, BYU and TCU. Not exactly 3 bad teams to get beat by.
This Wyoming team will play this game like it's their Super Bbowl, will clearly have more motivation and will be glad to be here.
I am going to grab the double digits with the team that has gone a very nice 8-3 ATS this year and look to cash in with them one more time.
10 DIME - GONZAGA BULLDOGS - I will gladly look to cash in on this inflated Duke public line all day long.
Across the board I can't think of a team that matches up this good with Duke, and won't be intimidated by playing at Madison Square Garden.
Only two teams have beaten the 'Zags this year, and that was Wake Forest by 2, and Michigan State by 4. That is how competitive this Gonzaga team has been.
Duke is Duke, and they are crusing along with just 1 loss this year and that was at Wisconsin and although I know the 'Zags have to play great basketball to win this game outright, they most certainly match up well with the Blue Devils in what I feel will be a fantastic game wire to wire.
There is value with the Bulldogs here, and the public continues to have a fantastic fascination with the Dookies and because of that, I will gladly grab the line value with the 'Zags in a game I feel goes right down to the wire.
Anthony Redd
Anthony Redd Saturday's Card 40-Dime - Cowboys
20-Dime - Cowboys-Saints Over
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------------GL GUYS
Anthony Redd Saturday's Card 40-Dime - Cowboys
20-Dime - Cowboys-Saints Over
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------------GL GUYS
Brett Atkins
Saturday
25 Dime NFL Saturday Night Super Lock - DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas has the ability to stop teams and pressure quarterbacks and they will get after Drew Brees tonight and stop the Saints' running game, which is really the catalyst for the passing game. New Orleans has failed to cover in five of their last seven and two of their last three at home. Dallas is in a must-win and even if they fail, it won't be by more than this spread. Grab the points and play the Cowboys.
10 Dime Bowl Book Buster - WYOMING COWBOYS
Fresno State always plays to the level of the competition. If they have to rise up, they do. If they are playing a mediocre team, the Bulldogs put on a mediocre performance. They are 0-4 ATS in bowl games as favorites and they play uninspired in games like this. Wyoming will give it everything they have and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine. Grab all these points and play the Cowboys.
Saturday
25 Dime NFL Saturday Night Super Lock - DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas has the ability to stop teams and pressure quarterbacks and they will get after Drew Brees tonight and stop the Saints' running game, which is really the catalyst for the passing game. New Orleans has failed to cover in five of their last seven and two of their last three at home. Dallas is in a must-win and even if they fail, it won't be by more than this spread. Grab the points and play the Cowboys.
10 Dime Bowl Book Buster - WYOMING COWBOYS
Fresno State always plays to the level of the competition. If they have to rise up, they do. If they are playing a mediocre team, the Bulldogs put on a mediocre performance. They are 0-4 ATS in bowl games as favorites and they play uninspired in games like this. Wyoming will give it everything they have and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine. Grab all these points and play the Cowboys.
Al DeMarco
Al DeMarco Saturday's Play 15 Dime - New Orleans Saints
I am not at all concerned that New Orleans struggled to score three-point wins at Atlanta and Washington the past two Sundays. You might recall that prior to beating up New England late last month, the Saints were in a similar spot. True, they had crushed Tampa a week earlier, but the Sunday prior they barely got by lowly St. Louis on the road 28-23, and that game was preceded by a tough 30-20 home win versus under-performing Carolina.
Unlike the Colts, who are seemingly wishy-washy when it comes to their desire to either finish 16-0 or rest their starters for an anticipated lengthy playoff run, New Orleans wants an undefeated season, not only for the long down-trodden franchise, but for the community, which has used the team as a rallying point since Hurricane Katrina. And they've got a head coach in Sean Payton and quarterback in Drew Brees that know only one way to play: all-out, all the time.
This is another opportunity for the Saints to serve notice to the public and the NFL that they are as good as advertised. A marquee foe on national TV just like when the Patriots came calling on Monday night. I was all over New Orleans in that contest and I'm backing the Saints again tonight for many of the same reasons.
Think about this: New Orleans has greater balance and is more lethal offensively than the San Diego team that just upset the Cowboys in Dallas. Brees directs an offense that averages 426 yards and 35.8 points per game. Plus, the Saints' receiver corps is better than San Diego's and their three-headed running back trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush offers talent and diversity that the Chargers could only dream of with an aging LT propping up the backfield.
The Saints are on a 10-4 ATS run in the Superdome, where they've scored huge wins in their three biggest games this season, rolling over the then-undefeated Jets 24-10, crushing the then-undefeated Giants 48-27, and blowing out the supposedly invincible Patriots 38-17. On the other hand, all I can say about the Cowboys - other than the fact they've lost two in a row - is that they've failed to cover six straight road games in the month of December.
Expect a high-scoring entertaining affair with the Cowboys hanging tough for most of the first half - much like the Patriots did - before Brees pulls the Saints away with a second-half burst as New Orleans prevails 37-20.
Strategy:
This line moved up from 7 to 7 1/2 on Friday. Go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point if you have New Orleans at -7 1/2. If your price is -8, forget about buying the hook because that's not a key number to concern yourself with when it comes to buying insurance.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------------GL GUYS
Al DeMarco Saturday's Play 15 Dime - New Orleans Saints
I am not at all concerned that New Orleans struggled to score three-point wins at Atlanta and Washington the past two Sundays. You might recall that prior to beating up New England late last month, the Saints were in a similar spot. True, they had crushed Tampa a week earlier, but the Sunday prior they barely got by lowly St. Louis on the road 28-23, and that game was preceded by a tough 30-20 home win versus under-performing Carolina.
Unlike the Colts, who are seemingly wishy-washy when it comes to their desire to either finish 16-0 or rest their starters for an anticipated lengthy playoff run, New Orleans wants an undefeated season, not only for the long down-trodden franchise, but for the community, which has used the team as a rallying point since Hurricane Katrina. And they've got a head coach in Sean Payton and quarterback in Drew Brees that know only one way to play: all-out, all the time.
This is another opportunity for the Saints to serve notice to the public and the NFL that they are as good as advertised. A marquee foe on national TV just like when the Patriots came calling on Monday night. I was all over New Orleans in that contest and I'm backing the Saints again tonight for many of the same reasons.
Think about this: New Orleans has greater balance and is more lethal offensively than the San Diego team that just upset the Cowboys in Dallas. Brees directs an offense that averages 426 yards and 35.8 points per game. Plus, the Saints' receiver corps is better than San Diego's and their three-headed running back trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush offers talent and diversity that the Chargers could only dream of with an aging LT propping up the backfield.
The Saints are on a 10-4 ATS run in the Superdome, where they've scored huge wins in their three biggest games this season, rolling over the then-undefeated Jets 24-10, crushing the then-undefeated Giants 48-27, and blowing out the supposedly invincible Patriots 38-17. On the other hand, all I can say about the Cowboys - other than the fact they've lost two in a row - is that they've failed to cover six straight road games in the month of December.
Expect a high-scoring entertaining affair with the Cowboys hanging tough for most of the first half - much like the Patriots did - before Brees pulls the Saints away with a second-half burst as New Orleans prevails 37-20.
Strategy:
This line moved up from 7 to 7 1/2 on Friday. Go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point if you have New Orleans at -7 1/2. If your price is -8, forget about buying the hook because that's not a key number to concern yourself with when it comes to buying insurance.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------------GL GUYS
Charley Sutton
SATURDAY'S PLAYS
250 Unit Fresno State
50 Unit Cowboys
50 Unit Cowboys-Saints Under
Fresno State vs. Wyoming
FRESNO STATE - Wyoming comes into the New Mexico Bowl catching about 10 1/2 points against Fresno State. That won't be enough as the Bulldogs cruise to an easy victory over the Cowboys. Consider that coming into this game Wyoming has gone just 2-4 SU its last 6 games, losing by about 17 points per game (28.6-11.1). Now they face a Bulldogs team that just finished its season two weeks ago, getting a strong outright 53-52 victory on the road at Illinois. The Bulldogs, who are 6-3 ATS their last 9 games and 7-1 SU their last 8 games will get a strong win over the Cowboys.
Cowboys at Saints
COWBOYS - Even though the Saints are a perfect 13-0 SU this season, lately they haven't been much of a money maker. New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS its last 7 games and has failed to cover in each of its last two and is only 1-2 ATS its last 3 games at home. The Cowboys, even though they're just 1-4 ATS their last five games and only 2-3 SU in that stretch, they've only been outscored, on average, 16.2-15.8. And tonight, they're catching about 7 1/2 points, depending on where you're playing this. Dallas will keep this one close and cover on the road.
Cowboys-Saints Total
UNDER - The number set for tonight's game is hovering around 53 1/2 points. Tonight, take the Under. Coming into this game the Cowboys have stayed Under the Total in 5 of their last 6 games. The Saints, surprisingly, have stayed Under the Total in 3 of their last 4 games and have seen the Under go 4-2 their last 6 games. Scoring will be at a premium tonight as these two stay Under the Total.
SATURDAY'S PLAYS
250 Unit Fresno State
50 Unit Cowboys
50 Unit Cowboys-Saints Under
Fresno State vs. Wyoming
FRESNO STATE - Wyoming comes into the New Mexico Bowl catching about 10 1/2 points against Fresno State. That won't be enough as the Bulldogs cruise to an easy victory over the Cowboys. Consider that coming into this game Wyoming has gone just 2-4 SU its last 6 games, losing by about 17 points per game (28.6-11.1). Now they face a Bulldogs team that just finished its season two weeks ago, getting a strong outright 53-52 victory on the road at Illinois. The Bulldogs, who are 6-3 ATS their last 9 games and 7-1 SU their last 8 games will get a strong win over the Cowboys.
Cowboys at Saints
COWBOYS - Even though the Saints are a perfect 13-0 SU this season, lately they haven't been much of a money maker. New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS its last 7 games and has failed to cover in each of its last two and is only 1-2 ATS its last 3 games at home. The Cowboys, even though they're just 1-4 ATS their last five games and only 2-3 SU in that stretch, they've only been outscored, on average, 16.2-15.8. And tonight, they're catching about 7 1/2 points, depending on where you're playing this. Dallas will keep this one close and cover on the road.
Cowboys-Saints Total
UNDER - The number set for tonight's game is hovering around 53 1/2 points. Tonight, take the Under. Coming into this game the Cowboys have stayed Under the Total in 5 of their last 6 games. The Saints, surprisingly, have stayed Under the Total in 3 of their last 4 games and have seen the Under go 4-2 their last 6 games. Scoring will be at a premium tonight as these two stay Under the Total.
Chuck O'Brien
SATURDAY'S WINNERS ...
PLEASE NOTE: I'm intentionally shying away from tonight's NFL game between the Cowboys and Saints. The reason is it is a very, very difficult game to handicap and I truly believe the line is incredibly sharp -- meaning there is no value on either side. Because of that, I'm taking a pass, as I would never issue a premium selection on a game that I'm not personally playing myself.
20 DIME - WEST VIRGINIA (minus the points vs. Cleveland State)
10 DIME - WYOMING (plus the points vs. Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl)
West Virginia
BREAKDOWN: Cleveland State was one of college basketball’s darlings a season ago, winning 26 games and upsetting 12th-ranked Wake Forest in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Turns out, the Vikings were a one-hit wonder. They returned just two starters from last year’s squad, and though they won three of their first four to begin the season, they’ve since lost six of their last seven, with the only win during this stretch coming against Wilberforce of the NAIA! … Meanwhile, West Virginia is ranked seventh in the nation and is off to a perfect 7-0 start, with six of those victories being double-digit blowouts (all by 18 points or more). The only team to hang with the Mountaineers to this point was Texas A&M (73-66 final on a neutral court), and A&M has been ranked the last several weeks. … The Mountaineers have had some offensive lulls in recent games (they scored just 68 points against Duquesne and 69 against Coppin State the last two games), but their defense has been superb all year, allowing just 55.1 ppg (including holding the aforementioned Duquesne and Coppin State to 39 and 43 points, respectively). On the other hand, defense is a foreign concept to Cleveland State, which gives up more than 71 ppg, including a 78-70 home loss to Robert Morris on Tuesday. At the same time, the Vikings are averaging just 60.7 ppg during their six-game losing streak to Division I opponents. … Finally, in its only game against a Top 25 opponent so far, Cleveland State got punked by Kentucky 73-49 as a 12-point underdog at a neutral site.
Wyoming (in the New Mexico Bowl)
BREAKDOWN: Wyoming was just a 6-6 football team and has one of the worst offenses of any bowl team in recent memory (in fact, the Cowboys were shut out three times this year), while Fresno State went 8-4, has the nation’s leading rusher, put up more than 34 points per game and nearly knocked off Wisconsin and Cincinnati, both on the road. So why take the points here? Because the Bulldogs have a history of laying down like, well, dogs, in mediocre bowl games against inferior competition. Consider: In its last nine bowl games, Fresno is 3-1 SU and ATS as an underdog, but 0-5 SU and ATS as a bowl favorite. Add it up and the ‘dog has won and covered eight of the Bulldogs’ last nine bowl contests (with seven outright upsets). That includes Fresno’s 40-35 loss to Colorado State as a two-point favorite in last year’s New Mexico Bowl …. The Bulldogs have been a brutal favorite overall in recent years, cashing just eight times in their last 30 as a chalk while going 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a double-digit favorite. Meantime, Wyoming closed the coach Dave Christensen’s first year on a 7-2 ATS run (6-2 ATS as a ‘dog). … There’s no telling what Fresno State’s mindset is going to be playing in the same bowl game for the second straight year against an opponent that needed a one-point win in its final game just to get to .500 and earn a bowl game. At the same time, Wyoming is stoked to be in its first bowl game since 2004 – when, ironically, it upset UCLA 24-21 as a 12½-point underdog
SATURDAY'S WINNERS ...
PLEASE NOTE: I'm intentionally shying away from tonight's NFL game between the Cowboys and Saints. The reason is it is a very, very difficult game to handicap and I truly believe the line is incredibly sharp -- meaning there is no value on either side. Because of that, I'm taking a pass, as I would never issue a premium selection on a game that I'm not personally playing myself.
20 DIME - WEST VIRGINIA (minus the points vs. Cleveland State)
10 DIME - WYOMING (plus the points vs. Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl)
West Virginia
BREAKDOWN: Cleveland State was one of college basketball’s darlings a season ago, winning 26 games and upsetting 12th-ranked Wake Forest in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Turns out, the Vikings were a one-hit wonder. They returned just two starters from last year’s squad, and though they won three of their first four to begin the season, they’ve since lost six of their last seven, with the only win during this stretch coming against Wilberforce of the NAIA! … Meanwhile, West Virginia is ranked seventh in the nation and is off to a perfect 7-0 start, with six of those victories being double-digit blowouts (all by 18 points or more). The only team to hang with the Mountaineers to this point was Texas A&M (73-66 final on a neutral court), and A&M has been ranked the last several weeks. … The Mountaineers have had some offensive lulls in recent games (they scored just 68 points against Duquesne and 69 against Coppin State the last two games), but their defense has been superb all year, allowing just 55.1 ppg (including holding the aforementioned Duquesne and Coppin State to 39 and 43 points, respectively). On the other hand, defense is a foreign concept to Cleveland State, which gives up more than 71 ppg, including a 78-70 home loss to Robert Morris on Tuesday. At the same time, the Vikings are averaging just 60.7 ppg during their six-game losing streak to Division I opponents. … Finally, in its only game against a Top 25 opponent so far, Cleveland State got punked by Kentucky 73-49 as a 12-point underdog at a neutral site.
Wyoming (in the New Mexico Bowl)
BREAKDOWN: Wyoming was just a 6-6 football team and has one of the worst offenses of any bowl team in recent memory (in fact, the Cowboys were shut out three times this year), while Fresno State went 8-4, has the nation’s leading rusher, put up more than 34 points per game and nearly knocked off Wisconsin and Cincinnati, both on the road. So why take the points here? Because the Bulldogs have a history of laying down like, well, dogs, in mediocre bowl games against inferior competition. Consider: In its last nine bowl games, Fresno is 3-1 SU and ATS as an underdog, but 0-5 SU and ATS as a bowl favorite. Add it up and the ‘dog has won and covered eight of the Bulldogs’ last nine bowl contests (with seven outright upsets). That includes Fresno’s 40-35 loss to Colorado State as a two-point favorite in last year’s New Mexico Bowl …. The Bulldogs have been a brutal favorite overall in recent years, cashing just eight times in their last 30 as a chalk while going 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a double-digit favorite. Meantime, Wyoming closed the coach Dave Christensen’s first year on a 7-2 ATS run (6-2 ATS as a ‘dog). … There’s no telling what Fresno State’s mindset is going to be playing in the same bowl game for the second straight year against an opponent that needed a one-point win in its final game just to get to .500 and earn a bowl game. At the same time, Wyoming is stoked to be in its first bowl game since 2004 – when, ironically, it upset UCLA 24-21 as a 12½-point underdog
Trace Adams
1500* - New Orleans Saints, 500* - Fresno State Bulldogs, 500* - Butler Bulldogs Yikes, sucks to be a Dallas Cowboys fan this time of year, doesn't it?
Just like the title of Tom Petty's song, Dallas is "Free Fallin" right now, and while this is a "must win" for the Pokes, I just don't see it happening.
It is a well documented fact the Cowboys under Wade Phillips are 0-6 against the spread on the road in December since 2007. In fact, Dallas is 3-15-1 against the spread their last 19 games in the 12th month of the year, and while Tony Romo is actually playing decent, the fact is he is just 5-10 straight up as a starter in December.
To compound matters, the Cowboys ain't playing Tampa Bay this evening. No, these Saints are marching towards regular season perfection, and can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win tonight, and a Vikings loss on Sunday.
The Saints ONLY home game in the last 5 weeks was their Monday night rout of New England back on November 30th. Expect another rowdy crowd in the bayou this Saturday night at the Superdome where the Saints have covered 10 of their last 14 home dates.
With DeMarcus Ware not at 100%, and the Dallas psyche not anywhere near 100%, expect the Saints to join the Colts at 14-0.
Lay it!
1500♦ - New Orleans Saints
Do you realize that in 12 games this season, Wyoming has been shut out 3 times, has been held to 10 points in 3 games, and has scored 17 points or less in 8 of those 12 contests?
I am not saying the Cowboys are going to get blanked here, but I don't think they are staying inside of this number.
Fresno State may not have the pointspread record to support laying double-digits, as the Bulldogs have failed their last 4 bowl tries when favored, but with their loss in this bowl game to Colorado State last year as the favorite, I think you are going to see a more "focused" effort from Pat Hill's team today.
State's defense is healthier than it was last year at this time, and they did go 2-1-1 against the spread this year when laying double-digits.
With this being Wyoming's first bowl game since 2004, and Coach Christensen's first bowl game as a head coach, have to side with the experience Pat Hill brings to the table.
Go with Fresno State minus the points.
500♦ - Fresno State Bulldogs
Speaking of Bulldogs, Butler's muderous early season schedule will pay dividends today against Xavier.
Butler has already played the likes of; Northwestern, Minnesota, and Ohio State out of the Big 10. They have also battled Clemson, and Georgetown, and have a 7-3 record to show for it.
Xavier has also played some solid competition, but my money is on Butler for the second meeting in as many seasons. Last year the Bulldogs beat a better Xavier edition, 74-65 at Xavier as the 8-point dog.
No issue laying a little wood with Butler as they handle the Musketeers for the 2nd season in a row.
500♦ - Butler Bulldogs
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------GL GUYS
1500* - New Orleans Saints, 500* - Fresno State Bulldogs, 500* - Butler Bulldogs Yikes, sucks to be a Dallas Cowboys fan this time of year, doesn't it?
Just like the title of Tom Petty's song, Dallas is "Free Fallin" right now, and while this is a "must win" for the Pokes, I just don't see it happening.
It is a well documented fact the Cowboys under Wade Phillips are 0-6 against the spread on the road in December since 2007. In fact, Dallas is 3-15-1 against the spread their last 19 games in the 12th month of the year, and while Tony Romo is actually playing decent, the fact is he is just 5-10 straight up as a starter in December.
To compound matters, the Cowboys ain't playing Tampa Bay this evening. No, these Saints are marching towards regular season perfection, and can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win tonight, and a Vikings loss on Sunday.
The Saints ONLY home game in the last 5 weeks was their Monday night rout of New England back on November 30th. Expect another rowdy crowd in the bayou this Saturday night at the Superdome where the Saints have covered 10 of their last 14 home dates.
With DeMarcus Ware not at 100%, and the Dallas psyche not anywhere near 100%, expect the Saints to join the Colts at 14-0.
Lay it!
1500♦ - New Orleans Saints
Do you realize that in 12 games this season, Wyoming has been shut out 3 times, has been held to 10 points in 3 games, and has scored 17 points or less in 8 of those 12 contests?
I am not saying the Cowboys are going to get blanked here, but I don't think they are staying inside of this number.
Fresno State may not have the pointspread record to support laying double-digits, as the Bulldogs have failed their last 4 bowl tries when favored, but with their loss in this bowl game to Colorado State last year as the favorite, I think you are going to see a more "focused" effort from Pat Hill's team today.
State's defense is healthier than it was last year at this time, and they did go 2-1-1 against the spread this year when laying double-digits.
With this being Wyoming's first bowl game since 2004, and Coach Christensen's first bowl game as a head coach, have to side with the experience Pat Hill brings to the table.
Go with Fresno State minus the points.
500♦ - Fresno State Bulldogs
Speaking of Bulldogs, Butler's muderous early season schedule will pay dividends today against Xavier.
Butler has already played the likes of; Northwestern, Minnesota, and Ohio State out of the Big 10. They have also battled Clemson, and Georgetown, and have a 7-3 record to show for it.
Xavier has also played some solid competition, but my money is on Butler for the second meeting in as many seasons. Last year the Bulldogs beat a better Xavier edition, 74-65 at Xavier as the 8-point dog.
No issue laying a little wood with Butler as they handle the Musketeers for the 2nd season in a row.
500♦ - Butler Bulldogs
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------GL GUYS
Joel Tyson
SATURDAY'S SELECTIONS
500♦ - New Orleans Saints minus the points
200♦ - Fresno State minus the points
200♦ - Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points
After watching Dallas implode on Sunday at home in a game they had to have, and after watching Indy handle matters on Thursday at Jacksonville, I am convinced the Saints will keep pace with the Colts, and kick some Dallas ass this Saturday night. The Dallas December Dive is for REAL, as the Cowboys stand at 3-15-1 against the spread their last 19 December games!
New Orleans is finally back home after playing just 1 home game in their last 5 games, and we all remember what happened the last time they played at home, as the crushed New England under the Monday night lights to make it a 10-4 home spread run their last 14.
Make it 11-4 after tonight.
200♦ - Fresno State minus the points
This is the same bowl game Fresno State played in last season, and it is the same bowl game that saw them lose to Colorado State as the 2 1/2-point favorite.With Wyoming making their first bowl showing since 2004, and their first under new Coach Dave Christensen, expect veteran Pat Hill and his staff to have a huge advantage, and also a hige motivational edge, as they look to make amends for last season's bust in this game.The Cowboys have been offensively-challenged this year, as they were blanked 3 times in their 12 games.
I can see this one getting away from the Pokes.
Bulldogs roll.
200♦ - Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points
Here is another case where I feel the line dictates the play.
Central Florida arguably closed stronger than Rutgers, and there is no denying the fact the Knights from Florida will have a stronger fan base, as this venue is about 100 miles from their campus.
Also of note, Rutgers WR Tim Brown is slowed by an ankle injury, and the Scarlet Knights did just finish up with their winter final exams.
Still, cannot argue with Greg Schiano's bowl success of late, as Rutgers has been a winner in their last 3 bowl games, covering in 2 of 3, as they just missed last season in a 29-23 win as the closing 6 1/2-point favorite.
Central Florida is making their 3rd bowl trip under George O'Leary, and thus far they are 0-for-2 straight up, and 1-1 against the spread.
I like the Knights from New Jersey to win their 4th straight bowl game, and cover this small impost.
SATURDAY'S SELECTIONS
500♦ - New Orleans Saints minus the points
200♦ - Fresno State minus the points
200♦ - Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points
After watching Dallas implode on Sunday at home in a game they had to have, and after watching Indy handle matters on Thursday at Jacksonville, I am convinced the Saints will keep pace with the Colts, and kick some Dallas ass this Saturday night. The Dallas December Dive is for REAL, as the Cowboys stand at 3-15-1 against the spread their last 19 December games!
New Orleans is finally back home after playing just 1 home game in their last 5 games, and we all remember what happened the last time they played at home, as the crushed New England under the Monday night lights to make it a 10-4 home spread run their last 14.
Make it 11-4 after tonight.
200♦ - Fresno State minus the points
This is the same bowl game Fresno State played in last season, and it is the same bowl game that saw them lose to Colorado State as the 2 1/2-point favorite.With Wyoming making their first bowl showing since 2004, and their first under new Coach Dave Christensen, expect veteran Pat Hill and his staff to have a huge advantage, and also a hige motivational edge, as they look to make amends for last season's bust in this game.The Cowboys have been offensively-challenged this year, as they were blanked 3 times in their 12 games.
I can see this one getting away from the Pokes.
Bulldogs roll.
200♦ - Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points
Here is another case where I feel the line dictates the play.
Central Florida arguably closed stronger than Rutgers, and there is no denying the fact the Knights from Florida will have a stronger fan base, as this venue is about 100 miles from their campus.
Also of note, Rutgers WR Tim Brown is slowed by an ankle injury, and the Scarlet Knights did just finish up with their winter final exams.
Still, cannot argue with Greg Schiano's bowl success of late, as Rutgers has been a winner in their last 3 bowl games, covering in 2 of 3, as they just missed last season in a 29-23 win as the closing 6 1/2-point favorite.
Central Florida is making their 3rd bowl trip under George O'Leary, and thus far they are 0-for-2 straight up, and 1-1 against the spread.
I like the Knights from New Jersey to win their 4th straight bowl game, and cover this small impost.
dr bob
Wyoming 28 Fresno St. (-11.0) 31 (at New Mexico)
01:30 PM Pacific, 19-Dec-09
I'll take Wyoming in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +12 points or more. I'll also lean Over (55) at 56 points or lower.
Central Florida 20 Rutgers (-2.5) 19 (at St. Petersburg Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 19-Dec-09
I lean with UCF as an underdog and I also lean with the Under (44) at 41 points or higher.
I'd consider UCF a Strong Opinion as a dog if it is announced that Brown will not play and as a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more if Brown is out.
Middle Tenn 28 Southern Miss (-3.5) 30 (at New Orleans Bowl)
05:30 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-09
I'll lean with Middle Tennessee at +3 points or more and I have no opinion on the total.
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Wyoming 28 Fresno St. (-11.0) 31 (at New Mexico)
01:30 PM Pacific, 19-Dec-09
I'll take Wyoming in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +12 points or more. I'll also lean Over (55) at 56 points or lower.
Central Florida 20 Rutgers (-2.5) 19 (at St. Petersburg Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 19-Dec-09
I lean with UCF as an underdog and I also lean with the Under (44) at 41 points or higher.
I'd consider UCF a Strong Opinion as a dog if it is announced that Brown will not play and as a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more if Brown is out.
Middle Tenn 28 Southern Miss (-3.5) 30 (at New Orleans Bowl)
05:30 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-09
I'll lean with Middle Tennessee at +3 points or more and I have no opinion on the total.
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Chris Jordan
Saturday winners ...
2000♦ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - I will have your breakdown on this game by 10 a.m. eastern today.
NOTE: The line has been all over the place the past 24 hours, and for the most part I am seeing the line at 7-1/2 at this point. My suggestion is that you buy the 1/2-point down to 7 points when laying the favorite tonight.
Do I believe the Saints roll in this one? Absolutley! But the fact is that this is such a vulnerable number - the 7-point spread - that the Saints could be up by double digits late, with the game in hand, when coach Sean Payton decides to avoid injury and pulls his starters. Far be it for me to become victim of the backdoor-cover with some garbage-time points and see this game fall right on seven.
Thus, when playing the Saints, my advice to you is bet the best possible line, which at this time happens to be 7 points.
paid and confirmed by me!
Saturday winners ...
2000♦ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - I will have your breakdown on this game by 10 a.m. eastern today.
NOTE: The line has been all over the place the past 24 hours, and for the most part I am seeing the line at 7-1/2 at this point. My suggestion is that you buy the 1/2-point down to 7 points when laying the favorite tonight.
Do I believe the Saints roll in this one? Absolutley! But the fact is that this is such a vulnerable number - the 7-point spread - that the Saints could be up by double digits late, with the game in hand, when coach Sean Payton decides to avoid injury and pulls his starters. Far be it for me to become victim of the backdoor-cover with some garbage-time points and see this game fall right on seven.
Thus, when playing the Saints, my advice to you is bet the best possible line, which at this time happens to be 7 points.
paid and confirmed by me!
Daily Power Ratings
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="96%"><tbody><tr><td class="freepickwhite" width="68%">DailyPowerRatings.com - NFL Saturday </td> <td rowspan="4" align="right" width="32%" valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="freepickwhite1">Saturday, December 19th</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 5* Star - 11+ Point Differential from Point Spread (Highest-Rated 3 Unit Play)
4* Star - 7 to 10 Point Differential (2 Unit Play)
3* Star - 4 to 6 Point Differential (1 Unit Play)
2* Star - 2 to 3 Point Differential (Slight Edge)
1* Star - 0 to 1 Point Differential (No Play Recommended) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td align="right" width="32%" valign="top"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="26%" height="30" valign="top">Team
(Game*)</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="23%" valign="top">Game Rating
(Point Differential)</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="10%" valign="top">Vegas
Line </td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="9%" valign="top">Our
Line</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="8%" valign="top">Power
Rating</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="8%" valign="top">Series</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="9%" valign="top">Home/
Away</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="7%" valign="top">Rest/
Play</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (303) Dallas</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">5</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbot" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (304) New Orleans</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#dc0100">3* Star (-5)</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-7</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-12</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-2</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-4</td> <td class="brdbot" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="8" class="brdbot" bgcolor="#e6e6e6" height="6"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" align="left"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" class="freepickwhite1">Today's Play:</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">3* New Orleans (-7) 1 Unit Play, should be -12 Point Favorites</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="96%"><tbody><tr><td class="freepickwhite" width="68%">DailyPowerRatings.com - NFL Saturday </td> <td rowspan="4" align="right" width="32%" valign="top">
4* Star - 7 to 10 Point Differential (2 Unit Play)
3* Star - 4 to 6 Point Differential (1 Unit Play)
2* Star - 2 to 3 Point Differential (Slight Edge)
1* Star - 0 to 1 Point Differential (No Play Recommended) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td align="right" width="32%" valign="top"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="26%" height="30" valign="top">Team
(Game*)</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="23%" valign="top">Game Rating
(Point Differential)</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="10%" valign="top">Vegas
Line </td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="9%" valign="top">Our
Line</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="8%" valign="top">Power
Rating</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="8%" valign="top">Series</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="9%" valign="top">Home/
Away</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="7%" valign="top">Rest/
Play</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (303) Dallas</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">5</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbot" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (304) New Orleans</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#dc0100">3* Star (-5)</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-7</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-12</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-2</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-4</td> <td class="brdbot" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="8" class="brdbot" bgcolor="#e6e6e6" height="6"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" align="left"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" class="freepickwhite1">Today's Play:</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">3* New Orleans (-7) 1 Unit Play, should be -12 Point Favorites</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
