Team Del Genio CBB Revenge Rout! (5-1 L2 Days!)
Cincinnati at Marshall Dec 15 2012 2:00PM
Play on Cincinnati at 2:00 ET. The last time we played the Bearcats, they treated us well routing Arkansas Little-Rock 87-53. They remained perfect with a win two days later against outmanned MD-East Shore 92-60 and we're expecting a similar score here against a Marshall team that surprised them last year in Cincy, winning 73-69 in overtime as seven-point dogs. The Thundering Herd are without their leading scorer De'Andre Kane, who also leads the team in assists. Kane was averaging about 38 minutes per game, so his loss is huge. And it's not like Marshall has been playing w/out him for a couple games. This is the first game he's missing. Quotes from his teammates in regards to this matchup w/ the 11th ranked Bobcats sound ominous. In regards to being without Kane, "It's just like if Michael Jordan isn't on the floor one game." Another Herd player noted Cincinnati will be "really fired up to beat us" and another was sure to make note of the Bearcats increased depth compared to last season. Kane scored 12 pts in last year's upset. Meanwhile, Bearcats HC Mick Cronin is riding his team hard despite some recent blowouts. Marshall is allowing over 70 PPG, which is not a good sign at all. Even worse is the fact the Thundering Herd have not covered a single game all season, going 0-6 ATS against lined foes. They had shot below 40% in three consecutive contests before a win over Coppin State (non-board team) last Saturday. Cincinnati is 10-2 ATS on the non-conference road the last two seasons while also going a perfect 7-0 vs. the number in road games when coming off a home victory. Cincinnati is our 8* CBB Revenge Rout.
Prediction: Cincinnati
Team Del Genio 10* Non-Conf Game of the YEAR!
West Virginia at Michigan Dec 15 2012 8:00PM
Play on Michigan at 8:00 ET. West Virginia let us down with a real stinker at Duquesne Tuesday, so we'd really like to see them go down here. But as upset as we are with Tuesday's loss, it pales it comparison to how badly Michigan HC John Beilein will want to beat his former school. The third-ranked Wolverines look like they are the real deal and we are getting some good value here thanks to this game being played at a neutral site, the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Michigan's average margin of victory this season has come by 21.2 PPG. Their last three wins have all come by greater than 13 points and two of them have been by more than 28 points. They have put up outstanding numbers on both ends of the floor, shooting better than 50% on the offensive end while holding foes to an average of just 56.7 PPG. The coach of the team they just beat (Binghamton) went on the record stating "That's...a team that could win the national championship" following a 67-39 Michigan win Tuesday. The coach has a precedent for making such a remark as the Wolverines are off to their best start since the 1988-89 squad that cut down the nets for Steve Fisher. West Virginia will very clearly be motivated to beat their former coach, but the bottom line is that the Mountaineers have shot worse than 38% from the floor in four of its last five games. Don't forget that they also shot a woeful 27.3 percent in the season opener at Gonzaga. All four of their losses this season have come away from Morgantown. A key factor for the Wolverines thus far has been their discipline as this team simply doesn't commit many fouls. Opponents have attempted only 102 free throws all season, sixth-fewest nationally. That includes just seven the last two games as Michigan has committed just 12 fouls in those games. Their work on the boards is much better than last season as well w/ five 40+ rebound games after having just one such performance this year. The Wolverines win big here. Michigan is our 10* CBB Non-Conf Game of the Year.
Prediction: Michigan
Burns 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE! *GOING FOR 6 STRAIGHT
Tennessee Tech at Wis-Milwaukee Dec 15 2012 8:00PM
I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. This isn't exactly Saturday's "sexiest" matchup. However, as far as I'm concerned, winning a "boring" matchup is more important than losing an "exciting" one. In this case, with the pointspread essentially a non-factor, I feel we're getting excellent value with the home team. At 5-4, Tennessee Tech comes in with the better record. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is only 3-8. A closer look reveals that the Panthers are 3-1 at home though while the Golden Eagles are only 1-3 on the road. While the Golden Eagles are being outscored 71-62 on the road, the Panthers are outscoring teams by a 70.2 to 64.7 margin at home. Last game, Tennessee Tech lost by 20 at Gardner Webb. In their previous road game, the Golden Eagles lost by 16 at Lipscomb. This is a team which has padded its record with wins over the likes of Crowley's Ridge, Coastal Carolina and Berea. Keep in mind that the Panthers returned three starters from a team that won 20 games last season. Last year's team dealt with numerous injuries too. This year's team is healthy, thus far. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles are also without DeOndre Haynes. (Coach Payne said this of Haynes: "...He’s just a phenomenal athlete and he’s becoming a better and better shooter every day...") True, the Panthers have failed to cover four straight. That's worked in our favor though by taking the pointspread out of the equation. They still beat Northern Illinois by seven in their last game here, more than enough to get the cash here. Also, despite failing to cover at Fairfield on 12/12, note that the Panthers, who already beat Davidson on this floor, are still a profitable 3-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover in three or more consecutive games. Knowing that the schedule gets significantly tougher after this and that three of their next four come on the road, I expect the Panthers to go all out to protect their home floor and look for them to successfully do so. *10 Personal Favorite
Prediction: Wis-Milwaukee
Burns False Fav GAME OF THE MONTH! ~ 5-0 THIS WEEK
Creighton at California Dec 15 2012 11:00PM
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I can understand why Creighton opened as a small favorite in this game. After all, the Bluejays are 9-1 and are ranked #16 in the country. Remember though, the purpose of setting the lines isn't to predict the outcome. Rather, its to achieve balanced action on both sides. If the Bluejays were underdogs, the books would get nothing but Creighton action. In fact, even with the Bluejays listed as slight favorites, the early money came in on them, moving the line from 1 to 1.5 or 2. While I also do try and predict what each Vegas/Offshore line will be, I also have my own set of numbers, which have nothing to do with "balancing action." In this case, with all due respect to the Bluejays, my numbers say that the Bears will come out on top. The Bluejays are an experienced team, have a legitimate star in Doug McDermott (the coach's son) and can score with the best of them. It should be noted that they did lose guard Antoine Young in the offseason, a second team ALL-MVC selection each of the last two seasons. Coach McDermott said this of losing Young, who twice led the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio: "We lost a big piece of the puzzle last year in our point guard Antoine Young. Anytime you lose someone who’s that critical to your success, you’re really talking about a totally different team." In addition to no longer having Young, the Bluejays are currently without guard Josh Jones. That's also a blow to the backcourt. McDermott said this of Jones: "Josh brings instant offense off the bench. He’s a terrific shooter and he has no fear when he enters the game. Any time you can bring someone like that off the bench and have that kind of firepower with someone who’s willing to accept their role and play it to its fullest, you’ve got a chance to have a special team.” Obviously from a shooting standpoint, he was one of the better shooters in the country coming out of high school." I believe that the Bears, who have an excellent backcourt, will have the edge in that area. I also expect the Bears to be extremely motivated at the chance to knock off a Top 25 team. You may recall that Cal blew a golden opportunity to beat ranked UNLV last week, losing by a single point. While they have played a couple of tough neutral court games, note that this is just the second true road game for the Bluejays - and is much further from home than their previous one - which came at Nebraska. (Creighton is based out of Omaha, while the Huskers are based out of Lincoln.) For all their impressive numbers the past few seasons, the Bluejays are only 3-5 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Bears are 3-0-1 ATS (3-1 SU) as home underdogs of three or less. I recently played against another top tier MVC team as Wichita State lost at Tennessee. Don't be "shocked" when the Jays also go down. *9 False Fav GOM
Prediction: California
Burns' *10 HIGH NOON ANNIHILATOR! ~ PERFECT 5-0 TW
Elon at Massachusetts Dec 15 2012 12:05PM
I'm playing on MASSACHUSETTS. Elon comes in with the better record. In fact, at 6-3, the Phoenix currently have he best overall record in the Southern Conference. While the Phoenix are indeed an improved team from recent years, I expect them to have their hands full against what I expect will be a highly motivated Massachusetts squad. True, the Minutemen have a pretty ugly ATS mark, at the moment. They're still 4-3 SU though and the three losses came vs. NC State, Tennessee and Miami, far more talented teams than they one that they'll face here. When matched up against lesser foes, Harvard, Providence, Siena and Northeastern, the Minutemen have gone a perfect 4-0 SU. They finally broke through with a cover last time out, too - a 72-66 victory at Northeastern, when listed as 3.5 point favorites. Note that this game is technically being called a "neutral" court game, as its being played at Springfield, rather than Amherst. That's only a distance of about 30 miles though. So, its not exactly going to be a "neutral" environment. These teams also faced each other last season. The Minutemen hammered them by an 87-65 score, covering as 9.5 point favorites. I believe that they're still the superior team and I expect them to demonstrate that with another convincing win and cover. *10 Annihilator
Prediction: Massachusetts
