Service Plays Saturday 12/15/12

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SCOTT SPREITZER'S TKO BOWL OPENING BEATDOWN! *4-0!


Toledo at Utah St. Dec 15 2012 4:30PM


I'm laying the points with Utah State. I'm not sure the Aggies have been given their just due by both the public and the linesmakers. USU enters Saturday on a red-hot 9-1-1 ATS run. Yet they have "unfinished business," as they're calling it after losing 24-23 to Ohio U. in bowl action last season. The Aggies lost just two games all season, coming up short on the road to Wisconsin and BYU, by 2 points and 3 points, respectively. And let's not forget the way they dismantled a good San Jose State team on the road, 49-27, while piling up 13 sacks! QB Chuckie Keeton and RB Kerwyn Williams are an outstanding pass-run punch in the USU backfield, while the defense has made leaps and bounds this season, sporting a top-shelf pass rush. USU allows just over 322 total yards per game. They're 13th against the run, while not suffering at all against the pass, and they're 8th in the nation, allowing just over 15 ppg. The USU offense, by the way, faces a horrible Toledo defense that's near the bottom of the NCAA in several key categories. The one caveat that many have brought up leading up to this game is whether or not USU will be motivated after coming so close to a perfect record. Well, with the team stating they have unfinished business, and the fact USU is not used to going bowling...there's still an excitement no matter what bowl game they play in. It gives me confidence the more talented team on the field is also a motivated one. The Aggies are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 lined games and they're on a 5-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile Toledo is on a 1-4 ATS slide against WAC teams. I'm laying the points with Utah State on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.


Prediction: Utah St.


Fargo's 10* NBA DARK HORSE DANDY (PERFECT 4-0 L4)


Orlando Magic at Charlotte Bobcats Dec 15 2012 7:35PM


I won with Orlando last night as the Magic took out Golden St. rather easily and snapped the Warriors five-game road winning streak on the current roadtrip. Now Orlando hits the road in a classic letdown spot as it is coming off that big win and now faces a team that has lost 10 straight games so the focus here from the Magic will be minimal. Orlando has not been a road favorite yet this season and it is hard to argue the Magic being a road chalk here despite the recent Charlotte struggles. We played the Bobcats in their last home game and they covered against the Clippers despite losing outright which was their ninth straight loss. They followed that up with a road blowout loss in Atlanta on Thursday but heading home in search of that elusive eighth victory will have them highly motivated tonight. The Bobcats offense has been efficient, averaging 96.1 ppg, with six players averaging double-digit scoring. They are 5-9 at home and while they are 0-8 against the NBA's top ten, they are 7-7 against the rest of the league which is far from horrible. This one is pretty important as well as this is the Bobcats last chance to end their losing streak before heading out on a four-game West Coast trip. The Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (504) Charlotte Bobcats


Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats



Burns 2012 Opening Day ANNIHILATOR! (Won 37-15 LY)


Nevada at Arizona Wildcats Dec 15 2012 1:00PM


I'm playing on NEVADA. These two teams have some similarities. Both can score plenty of points and both also have a tendency to give up quite a few. Not surprisingly, we're seeing an O/U line in the mid-high 70s. I feel that the value lies with the underdog though, not the total. The Wolfpack are 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as underdogs, including a 1-0 ATS mark as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have long been terrible when laying points. They're 41-71 ATS the last 100+ times that they were favored, including an awful 14-30 ATS mark when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. that included a 3-6-1 ATS mark their last 10 in that role. Overall, the Cats were only 2-4 ATS as favorites this season. While the Wolfpack do give up a high 32.5 points per game, the Wildcats give up 34.3. That number climbs all the way to 48.2 (and 543 ypg!) when the Cats play on the road. On the other hand, Nevada allowed fewer points (29.7 and 395.7 ypg) when playing away from Reno. In fact, the Wolfpack were on the best on the road, winning five of six, the lone loss coming when they were playing on a short week, at Air Force. While I won with the Wolfpack in last year's bowl, I like that this game comes earlier and feel that gives Nevada and its unique offense an edge. If this bowl came in another week or two, Arizona would have had more chance to prepare for the Wolfpack's pistol offense. However, with this being the very first bowl game, that amount of preparation time is lessened. As Nevada offensive tackle Jeff Nady noted: "The Pistol offense is a unique offense and the less time a team has to prepare for us, I think it gives us a slight edge. I do think this gives us a slight advantage based on the way our offense works." Of course, motivation is always important to assess in these early bowl games. In this case, I expect the Wolfpack to be very hungry. This team has a strong senior class and they weren't happy with the way they closed out the regular season. They also aren't happy with their recent bowl record and this provides an excellent opportunity to improve in that area. While I do believe the Wildcats will also want to win this game, I feel that there may be a little more disappointment with being here. Had they taken care of business against ASU in their regular season finale, they may been playing in the Sun Bowl instead. While it won't effect the players, its interesting to note that even some of the Arizona faithful may not be 100% focused on the game - as the Wildcats basketball team happens to host Florida later on Saturday, their biggest non-conf game. Including their cover in the Hawaii Bowl last season, a game I attended, the Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS their last four games played in the month of December. I expect at least another cover on Saturday. *9


Prediction: Nevada


Bet Type: SPREAD



Toledo at Utah St. Dec 15 2012 4:30PM 25* graded play on Toledo as they take on Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl set to start at 4:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. On paper, the statistics show why Utah State should be favored in this bowl. However, the individual matchups show that this is just too many points to be laying to a solid Toledo team. Toledo RB David Fluellen is a solid runner and has lateral agility to make Utah State’s LB miss tackling him in space. They key is that the Toledo OL must be covering up and get sustained blocks on LB Doughty and Vigil. Toledo spreads the field with an array of wide receiver sets and this will make it less possible for Utah State to show and then bring their blitz scheme. By spreading the field, it does allow Toledo the opportunity to establish the run and then use play action to attack the vertical routes, which they have done well this season. The ‘X-Factor’ in this game is Toledo’s Bernard Reedy, who is a ‘water bug’ type of player at just 5-9 and 175 pounds. Don’t discount him because of the lack of size, because he can absolutely fly and has tremendous quickness. Although the Utah defense has had a great season ranking 10th in the nation allowing just 16.5 PPG, they have yet to face a team with the perimeter speed of Toledo. Reedy is also a special teams weapon that has a chance to score every time he returns a punt or a kickoff. This will at the very least provide Toledo with solid field position to start their drives. I think, though, that Toledo’s QB Owens will raget Reedy on slant patterns where he can gain maximum yards after the catch. There is not one defender that can stay with the speed and quickness of Reedy and he will get ample separation allowing Owens to make high percentage tosses to him. WR Alonzo Russell is the other weapon and his size at 6-4, 200, will be another significant test for the Aggie defense. The Aggies have been very successful bringing pressure form the edges and using players from the third level at times. However, this works to the advantages of using Reedy as a check down pass catcher allowing Owens to get the ball out quickly and negate the pressure. Owens will also have the option of throwing to Russell when he sees the perimeter pressure coming. Russell has the height to go after balls and make plays - again defeating the Aggie blitz. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-6 ATS mark for 85% ATS winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite and is a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record. 58% of the games played have covered the spread by seven or more points and the system is 13-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Take Toledo.Ryan's CFB 25* Top Rated Bowl TitanRyan is on an epoch run posting an incredible 52-19-1 ATS mark for 73% ATS winners in All Sports. He hammered the books again last night with Toronto, who covered over the Mavericks by 26 points!. This Bowl Game features a proven 85% 10-year system that is a perfect 13-0 ATS L3 seasons.
Prediction: Toledo


Fargo's 10* CBB REVENGE CRUSHER (PERFECT 4-0 RUN)


New Mexico St. at New Mexico Dec 15 2012 6:00PM


This is the first of two meetings in five days for these bitter rivals and while New Mexico St. finally broke through with a win in this series last season, the Lobos should be ready to not let it happen again. The Aggies won at The Pit for the first time since 2002 and while New Mexico got its revenge in Las Cruces a couple weeks later, the Lobos want payback for what happened on their own floor. The Aggies held the Lobos to 28 percent shooting from the floor last year in a 62-53 victory at The Pit, the lowest percentage for a Steve Alford-coached team at New Mexico. "Our players know that we don't get beat in this building very often. They remember when we lose one here," said Alford. "We are 8-2 against the Aggies and one of those losses was here, so I'm sure our players are aware of that." Basically he is saying they are out for retribution. They have edges all over the floor too. Aggies head coach Marvin Menzies is concerned about the his young point guards, sophomores K.C. Ross Miller and Terrel De Rouen facing the Lobos experience in the backcourt. This is an issue as they already turn the ball over 25 percent of the time or 17 times per game. New Mexico doesn't pressure teams into turnovers but it doesn't have to here. Additionally, the Lobos the country with 21.6 made free throws per game and are third with 28.2 free-throw attempts per game. Payback will be sweet. 10* (558) New Mexico Lobos


Prediction: New Mexico




Fargo's CBB BIG BITE BEATDOWN (SWEET 65% LIFETIME)


Cal Riverside at USC Dec 15 2012 7:00PM


This is a pretty big number but it is one that should be no problem in this situation for the Trojans. USC is off to a 3-6 start and because of that record, we are getting some decent value even if it may not look it here. After starting the season 3-1 including a pretty impressive win against Texas in Hawaii, the Trojans have lost five straight games but the schedule maker, aka head coach Kevin O'Neil', can be blamed for part of it. Games against Illinois, Texas, Marquette, San Diego St., New Mexico and Minnesota have certainly tested USC and the slate is ranked ninth in the nation in difficulty heading into the weekend. This could be a very good thing heading into conference season especially coming off a 6-26 record including 1-17 in the Pac 12. The Trojans finally catch a break here. UC-Riverside had a decent season last year but they lost four starters and to make matter worse, the Highlanders have no postseason to look forward to as the were suspended from all postseason tournaments, including the Big West Tournament, as they had an insufficient APP score. That makes motivation a huge issue and we are seeing it already as they are 2-7 including 0-3 on the road and getting outscored by 20.4 ppg on the highway. The Trojans throttled UC-Riverside last season on the road by 21 points and that is when the Highlanders were a lot better. We will see more of the same this season. 9* (564) USC Trojans


Prediction: USC






Fargo's 10* CBB AFTERNOON DOMINATOR (PERFECT 4-0)


Eastern Michigan at Illinois-Chicago Dec 15 2012 2:00PM


Sitting at 8-1, Illinois-Chicago has already matched its win total from all of last season when it went 8-22 including 3-15 in the Horizon League. Are the Flames that much improved or are they playing over their heads? I think it is a little bit of both, leaning more toward the latter. Sure teams can show huge improvements in the span of just one season but because the Flames were so bad last season, teams have not been bringing their A game to the matchups. Because they have produced a few upsets now, that will no longer be the case. Illinois-Chicago had a big win at Northwestern but the Wildcats were obviously looking past that game with Baylor on deck. In the last game, the Flames defeated Colorado St. at home last Saturday but the Rams were coming off a big rivalry game against Colorado and were heading east for the first time all season. Eastern Michigan is coming off a big win over Purdue but that was a week ago so any celebration has subsided. The Eagles are a very good team and have won five of six with the lone loss coming at Syracuse. They will contend in the MAC West and are not getting the respect they deserve here. Looking at the stats quickly, the Eagles are shooting 36.5 percent and the Flames are shooting 37.9 percent and defensively, the teams are allowing 36.6 percent and 36.1 percent respectively. Those are pretty even numbers and should equate to a very competitive contest. 10* (529) Eastern Michigan Eagles


Prediction: Eastern Michigan






Tom Freese 10* CBB "NO BRAINER" SAT (4-1 L2 Days in CBB)


NC ASHEVILLE at Ohio State Dec 15 2012 12:00PM


Tom Freese plays are rated 10 UNIT, 15 UNIT, and 20 UNITS (#631) NC ASHEVILLE BULLDOGS @ (#632) OHIO STATE BUCKEYES 12:00 PM EST The 3-6 Bulldogs travel to OHIO to battle the 7-1 Buckeyes on SATURDAY. NC Asheville has a scoring average of 70.0 Points per game while allowing an average of 68.7 Points per game to their opponents. On the other side of the Floor, Ohio State has a scoring average of 78.9 points per game while giving up an average of 55.6 Points per game to their opponents. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Non Conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Overall Games. Look for Ohio State to Cover easily today! PLAY ON THE (#632) OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (-) PTS FOR 10 UNITS TODAY!


Prediction: Ohio State




Marc's Double Perfect ATS College Hoops Key Play!


Florida at Arizona Dec 15 2012 10:00PM


Play On: Arizona (Game 586) Note: A matchup of undefeated Top-20 teams tips off at the McHale Center in Tucson Saturday evening where the Wildcats host the Florida Gators with 'Zona looking to avenge a 78-72 loss suffered at Gainseville last year. Good news for the Wildcats is their 25-10 SU and 24-101 ATS mark in games in which they and their opponent are each undefeated. Arizona is 8-4 ATS as as home dog since 1990, including 3-0 SUATS when they own a win percentage of .750 or more. On the flip side the Gators are 0-3 ATS in games off a win of 17 or more points over arch rival Florida State since 1990. With the Wildcats standing 138-12 SU at home in non-conference tilts, and 5-1 ATS as dogs of more than 2 points against SEC opponents, we'll grab the points on this strong homecourt in this payback tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Arizona. Thank you and good luck as always.


Prediction: Arizona
 

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Bookie Buster
Daily Pick


December 15, 2012
To help you locate these plays at your sportsbook, NBA is for Basketball, NCAAB or CBB is for College Basketball, NCAAF is for American College Football, NHL is for Hockey (Professional), MLB is for Baseball and NFL is for American Football (Professional).

NBA -- Golden State / Atlanta
-- Golden State +6

Warning: These are investment system picks and are not designed for straight betting.
 

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ness cbb legend play ? thanks

NCAAB 9-11 run


Larry's Superstar Triple Play (3-in-1)-Day


Tulsa at Arkansas Little Rock Dec 15 2012 3:00PM


My 8* play is on Arkansas-Little Rock at 3:00 ET.


Danny Manning’s first season at Tulsa has gone better than expected, considering. Before he started, guard Clarkson (16.5) and McClellan (8.5) transferred and after four games, his best player, the 6-7 Smith (14.5-4.8), injured his foot and has yet to return to the court (questionable again, here). He’s starting three freshman in guards Woodard (13.8-5.3), and Harrison (5.8-3.9) plus 6-8 forward Wright (8.4-6.0). A pair of seniors, guard Haralson (9.1) and the 6-7 Black (7.4-5.4) are helping to keep things together. Tulsa is 6-3 but will have its hands full here in Little Rock, where the Trojans are 6-0 this season and have won 11 of their last 12 home games, going back to last year. The 6-10 Neighbour (12.0-6.3) will be tough to combat plus a pair of freshman, guard Gillon (10.7) and the 6-8 White (9.7-5.2) are proving to be “tough cookies.” The Trojans shot a miserable 27.3 % (3-of-13 on threes) in last year’s season-opening 65-49 loss at Tulsa and earn some payback here, with a convincing win.


Good luck...Larry


Prediction: Arkansas Little Rock






Larry's 10* LEGEND Play (2nd TY / 1-0)


Kansas State at Gonzaga Dec 15 2012 9:00PM


My 10* LEGEND Play is on Gonzaga at 9:00 ET.


Four starters returned from last year’s 26-win team for Gonzaga, the exception being 7-0 center Robert Sacre (11.6-6.3), who was taken by the Los Angeles Lakers with the final pick in this year's NBA draft. However, Gonzaga has found a capable addition to its frontcourt (and a replacement for, Sacre) in 7-foot-1 freshman Przemek Karnowski. He currently is averaging 9.3 PPG and 3.6 RPG, despite coming off the bench. The five starters are the 6-7 Harris (16.6-8.0) and the 7-0 Olynyk (14.1-7.1) up front plus a three-guard lineup of LY’s two freshman, Pangos (10.5-3.7 APG) and Bell (10.3) plus 6-6 senior swingman Edi (6.5-3.1). The 6-9 Dower (8.3-4.5) started earlier TY while Olynk served a three-game suspension plus Stockton (4.9-3.5 APG) is a quality backup at PG. Gonzaga was off to the best start in its Division I history (9-0), but undefeated Illinois snapped the Bulldogs' 17-game home winning streak with an 85-74 victory last Saturday. After shooting 60.0 percent in the first half, the Bulldogs were held to 38.0 in the second and went without a basket for a stretch of six minutes. Gonzaga dropped just four spots in the rankings despite barely beating Washington State earlier and losing at home to Illinois last week, but voters will abandon the 14th-ranked Bulldogs if they lose to Kansas State at KeyArena in Seattle tonight The 7-1 Wildcats have won two straight since losing by 14 to then-No. 4 Michigan in the NIT Season Tip-Off in New York, and they’ve won seven of their last eight non-conference road games. McGruder led KSU in scoring last season at 15.8 PPG and after a slow start, his average has climbed to 12.9 PPG this season, while adding 5.6 RPG. Rodriguez (10.5-4.5 APG) and Spradling (8.9-2.4-3.0) form the team’s guard trio but KSU’s two frontcourt starters, the 6-7 Gipson (8.1-6.9) and the 6-5 Williams (5.6-4.6) look to be overmatched vs Gonzaga’s much taller, talented and deeper frontcourt (Gonzaga is outrebounding its opponents by an average of almost 12 boards per game). Kansas State ranks near the bottom of the Big 12 in FG shooting at 41.5 percent while Gonzaga’s 52.7 percent from the floor is tops in the nation (Bulldogs rank 6th in scoring at 82.7 PPG). Having NOT played since last Saturday's second-half collapse vs Illinois, the Bulldogs figure to be “on their game” in this one. WRONG place at the WRONG time for Kansas St.


Good luck...Larry


Prediction: Gonzaga
 

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MOST RECENT RELEASE
Rotation 577 Santa Clara (+3) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 12/15/12 05:00pm PSTReleased at: 12/15 8:12am PST


PREVIOUS RELEASES
Rotation 587 UC Irvine (+8) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 12/15/12 07:00pm PSTReleased at: 12/15 8:09am PST
Rotation 567 Valparaiso (-5.5) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 12/15/12 05:00pm PSTReleased at: 12/15 8:06am PST
Rotation 615 NC-Wilmington (+17) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 12/15/12 04:00pm PSTReleased at: 12/15 8:03am PST
Rotation 546 Arkansas-Little Rock (-2) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 12/15/12 12:00pm PSTReleased at: 12/15 8:00am PST


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Bankroll sports 4-1 yesterday---but did lose 10* on lsu tigers +6 cbb

todays card

10* nevada wolfpack +9 cfb
5* toledo rockets +10.5 cfb
4* creighton -1 cbb
4* cincinnati -12 cbb
3* santa clara +2 cbb
2* wright state -5 cbb
 

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Teddy Covers? Been a great fade for me lately
 

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Northcoast

Top Opinions
Nevada +8.5
Toledo +10.5

Regular Opinions

Over in both bowls

Small college
3* Sam houston st -3.5[/

For the bowls he rates his goals single double or triple. I'm assuming these are both singles, is that right?
 

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Seabass Report for Saturday:
College Football
100 Utah St Buy to 10
200 Nevada

NBA
100 Charlotte

College Basketball
200 North Carolina
100 New Mexico
100 Eastern Michigan
100 USC
100 Oregon
100 Cincinnati
100 Michigan
 
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Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today

BOWLS

Toledo vs. Utah St. (58½): Both teams put up points in bunches. They could reach this total by halftime. OVER 58½

Nevada +9½ vs. Arizona: UNR is 5-1 on the road and gave Boise a scare. Does Arizona have an interest in Reno? I think not. NEVADA.
 
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Norm's Clubhouse

December 15, 2012
what a nice night!....5-0...now 62-58
NBA
atlanta -6 golden state
minnesota -5 dallas
san antonio -9 1/2 boston
jazz -2 memphis
college
smu -1 rhode island
memphis +3 1/2 louisville
arizona st. -14 1/2 dartmouth
alabama +6 1/2 VCU
san francisco +2 1/2 nevada
valpo -5 1/2 missouri st.
texas -15 1/2 texas st.
creighton -1 1/2 california
canisius +21 syracuse

Football

REGULAR: Toledo +10 1/2 Utah State
Nevada +9 Arizona
NORMS LATE THOUGHTS: Take Arizona--Nevada OVER the total
 

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