marc lawrence 10*
Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence
Game: LSU at Mississippi Nov 21 2009 3:30PM
Prediction: LSU
Reason: Play On: LSU (Game 359) Note: The 8-2 Tigers take on the 7-3 Rebels in a key SEC battle with the winner likely landing a BCS bowl bid. Last year a three-loss LSU squad hosted Ole Miss with visions of the same, only to suffer a 31-13 loss in Death Valley. As a result the Tigers ended up in the Chick-Fil-A-Bowl, quite a drop after having defeated Ohio State two years ago in the BCS championship game. Now with the shoe on the other foot, this becomes the prefect spot for Bengal revenge. They currently occupy the No. 8 spot in the current BCS rankings and only a loss will deny them a BCS bowl berth. Best of all, LSU brings an arsenal of ammo into this game. For openers, the Tigers are 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS as a dog off a spread loss when facing a sub .800 or opponent. Entering this season, since 2000, LSU has suffered 10 losses at home. They have been a dog twice when looking to avenge those defeats: in 2002 when they won at Florida, 36-7 taking 8.5 points, and in 2004 when the won again at Florida, 24-21 taking 3 points. On the flip side, Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt is just 1-5 ATS in his career as a conference favorite versus an .800 or greater opponent, including 0-4 ATS when not off a spread loss. The clincher is a trio of awesome angles from our data base that all come together in this contest. The first system tells us to: Play On any Game Three or greater road dog of less than eight points off a spread loss that allows less than 14 PPG on the season that was favored by more than 13 points in its last game if they won six or more games last season and are facing an opponent that scored 38 or more points in its last game in which the opponent did not lose to the spread by 11 or more points. Teams in this role are 18-0 ATS since 1980. The second system says to: Play On any road dog of 7 or less points off a win-no-cover as a favorite of 17 or more points in its last game if they did not lose to the spread by 18 or more points versus an opponent off back-to-back wins that did not cover the spread by 20 or more points in its last game. These road dogs are 14-0-1 ATS since 1980. Finally, the third tells us to: Play Against any favorite of 24 or less points off back-to-back wins, the last off a SU and ATS conference victory in which they did not cover the spread by 20 or more points, versus an opponent that allows less than 40 PPG on the season if the favorite was a winning team last year and was a losing team each of the preceding three seasons (two or more games under .500 each year). That's because these 'Play Against pretenders are 0-16 ATS. With LSU's two losses this season coming against No. 1 ranked Florida and No. 2 ranked Alabama (by 10 and 9 points, respectively), look for the Tigers to get their revenge and eventually move on to a BCS bowl with a win here today. We recommend a 10-unit play on LSU.
Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence
Game: LSU at Mississippi Nov 21 2009 3:30PM
Prediction: LSU
Reason: Play On: LSU (Game 359) Note: The 8-2 Tigers take on the 7-3 Rebels in a key SEC battle with the winner likely landing a BCS bowl bid. Last year a three-loss LSU squad hosted Ole Miss with visions of the same, only to suffer a 31-13 loss in Death Valley. As a result the Tigers ended up in the Chick-Fil-A-Bowl, quite a drop after having defeated Ohio State two years ago in the BCS championship game. Now with the shoe on the other foot, this becomes the prefect spot for Bengal revenge. They currently occupy the No. 8 spot in the current BCS rankings and only a loss will deny them a BCS bowl berth. Best of all, LSU brings an arsenal of ammo into this game. For openers, the Tigers are 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS as a dog off a spread loss when facing a sub .800 or opponent. Entering this season, since 2000, LSU has suffered 10 losses at home. They have been a dog twice when looking to avenge those defeats: in 2002 when they won at Florida, 36-7 taking 8.5 points, and in 2004 when the won again at Florida, 24-21 taking 3 points. On the flip side, Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt is just 1-5 ATS in his career as a conference favorite versus an .800 or greater opponent, including 0-4 ATS when not off a spread loss. The clincher is a trio of awesome angles from our data base that all come together in this contest. The first system tells us to: Play On any Game Three or greater road dog of less than eight points off a spread loss that allows less than 14 PPG on the season that was favored by more than 13 points in its last game if they won six or more games last season and are facing an opponent that scored 38 or more points in its last game in which the opponent did not lose to the spread by 11 or more points. Teams in this role are 18-0 ATS since 1980. The second system says to: Play On any road dog of 7 or less points off a win-no-cover as a favorite of 17 or more points in its last game if they did not lose to the spread by 18 or more points versus an opponent off back-to-back wins that did not cover the spread by 20 or more points in its last game. These road dogs are 14-0-1 ATS since 1980. Finally, the third tells us to: Play Against any favorite of 24 or less points off back-to-back wins, the last off a SU and ATS conference victory in which they did not cover the spread by 20 or more points, versus an opponent that allows less than 40 PPG on the season if the favorite was a winning team last year and was a losing team each of the preceding three seasons (two or more games under .500 each year). That's because these 'Play Against pretenders are 0-16 ATS. With LSU's two losses this season coming against No. 1 ranked Florida and No. 2 ranked Alabama (by 10 and 9 points, respectively), look for the Tigers to get their revenge and eventually move on to a BCS bowl with a win here today. We recommend a 10-unit play on LSU.
Dominic Fazzini
Saturday's play 30 Dime -- UCLA (minus points vs. Arizona State)
UCLA
The Sun Devils are down to their third quarterback in sophomore Samson Szakacsy, and if it took injuries to senior Danny Sullivan and freshman Brock Osweiler for Szakacsy to get some playing time, then things can't be very good right now for ASU.
Meanwhile, freshman QB Kevin Prince has developed into a player UCLA can build its offense around for the next three years. He completed 27 of 40 passes for 314 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions last week in the Bruins' 43-7 victory at Washington State.
Yes, I know that the Cougars suck, but Prince has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of UCLA's last five games, and in one of the two that he didn't he was 13 of 17 for 212 yards. Prince also has managed to take care of the football this year, with only five interceptions in 224 pass attempts.
This is a big game for both teams, as each squad is chasing the possibility of a bowl bid, but a loss essentially wipes out the chance for either team. The Bruins are 10-3 ATS as a home favorite in their last 13 Pac-10 games, 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
ASU has lost its last four games, and didn't score more than 21 points in any of them. In fact, the Sun Devils haven't topped 27 points since their second game of the season.
ASU is 2-6 in its last eight games as a road underdog and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games overall. Take UCLA to cover the points today as it beats the Sun Devils by at least 10 points.
5 Dime -- Minnesota (plus points vs. IOWA)
MINNESOTA
The Hawkeyes have to be devastated right now. They lost a possible shot at the national title and then a potential Rose Bowl bid in consecutive weeks. Now Iowa is left to just try and finish its regular season on a high note, something that might be hard to muster up right now.
Part of the reason for the Hawkeyes' fall is the loss of quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who was injured in Iowa State's 17-10 loss to Northwestern on Nov. 7. Freshman James Vandenberg has filled in since then, and he has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions in that time, including three picks in last week's 27-24 loss at Ohio State in his first start.
Vandenberg is going to start again today for Iowa, which could give the Golden Gophers a ray of hope.
Minnesota struggled last week to beat Football Championship Subdivision school South Dakota 16-13, needing a 25-yard field goal with 2:22 remaining, but it has shown an ability to put up points at times this season.
The Gophers scored 42 points against Michigan State, 35 against Northwestern and Purdue, 32 vs. Illinois and 28 against Wisconsin. The team's problem has been consistency, well, and defense, as Minnesota hasn't kept a Big Ten opponent under 20 points this season.
But Iowa's offense hasn't exactly been explosive, surpassing 30 points just twice this season, so I believe the Gophers should be able to stay close today. Conventional wisdom and past betting trends say the Hawkeyes should be the play today, but I just don't think they're going to come with a strong effort today after those two crushing losses and a freshman guiding their offense. Take Minnesota to cover the points.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
Saturday's play 30 Dime -- UCLA (minus points vs. Arizona State)
UCLA
The Sun Devils are down to their third quarterback in sophomore Samson Szakacsy, and if it took injuries to senior Danny Sullivan and freshman Brock Osweiler for Szakacsy to get some playing time, then things can't be very good right now for ASU.
Meanwhile, freshman QB Kevin Prince has developed into a player UCLA can build its offense around for the next three years. He completed 27 of 40 passes for 314 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions last week in the Bruins' 43-7 victory at Washington State.
Yes, I know that the Cougars suck, but Prince has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of UCLA's last five games, and in one of the two that he didn't he was 13 of 17 for 212 yards. Prince also has managed to take care of the football this year, with only five interceptions in 224 pass attempts.
This is a big game for both teams, as each squad is chasing the possibility of a bowl bid, but a loss essentially wipes out the chance for either team. The Bruins are 10-3 ATS as a home favorite in their last 13 Pac-10 games, 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
ASU has lost its last four games, and didn't score more than 21 points in any of them. In fact, the Sun Devils haven't topped 27 points since their second game of the season.
ASU is 2-6 in its last eight games as a road underdog and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games overall. Take UCLA to cover the points today as it beats the Sun Devils by at least 10 points.
5 Dime -- Minnesota (plus points vs. IOWA)
MINNESOTA
The Hawkeyes have to be devastated right now. They lost a possible shot at the national title and then a potential Rose Bowl bid in consecutive weeks. Now Iowa is left to just try and finish its regular season on a high note, something that might be hard to muster up right now.
Part of the reason for the Hawkeyes' fall is the loss of quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who was injured in Iowa State's 17-10 loss to Northwestern on Nov. 7. Freshman James Vandenberg has filled in since then, and he has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions in that time, including three picks in last week's 27-24 loss at Ohio State in his first start.
Vandenberg is going to start again today for Iowa, which could give the Golden Gophers a ray of hope.
Minnesota struggled last week to beat Football Championship Subdivision school South Dakota 16-13, needing a 25-yard field goal with 2:22 remaining, but it has shown an ability to put up points at times this season.
The Gophers scored 42 points against Michigan State, 35 against Northwestern and Purdue, 32 vs. Illinois and 28 against Wisconsin. The team's problem has been consistency, well, and defense, as Minnesota hasn't kept a Big Ten opponent under 20 points this season.
But Iowa's offense hasn't exactly been explosive, surpassing 30 points just twice this season, so I believe the Gophers should be able to stay close today. Conventional wisdom and past betting trends say the Hawkeyes should be the play today, but I just don't think they're going to come with a strong effort today after those two crushing losses and a freshman guiding their offense. Take Minnesota to cover the points.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
