[COLOR=#000000! important]BEN BURNS
Connecticut vs. Notre Dame (NCAAF) - 2:30 PM EST Notre Dame Premium Pick
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Play Title **EARLY** Burns 10* Non-Conf. BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR
Play Selected Point Spread: -6/-108
I'm laying the points with NOTRE DAME. The Huskies are coming off a bye last week. Prior to that, in addition to having tragically lost a teammate, they'd been through an exhausting stretch of games. One could argue that they bye came at the perfect time. However, after having lost a close one to Cincinnati and three straight "heart-breakers" overall, I feel that the extra week may only serve to give them more time to hang their heads and think about "what could have been." This is a team which had been riding on emotion for some time and sometimes after having the 'ride come to an end,' it can be a bit difficult to get back the same intensity. The Huskies also know that they've still got a pair of Big East home games left on tap, including a winnable game vs. Syracuse, which may take a little bit of the urgency out of winning this one. Notre Dame, on the other hand, should absolutely be playing with a sense of 'urgency.' This is the final home game for the Irish and their finale comes on the road vs. a good Stanford team. Off back to back losses, they know that if they don't win here that they could easily be looking at losing four straight to end the regular season. That would almost certainly spell the end of the Charlie Weis era. Regardless of whether or not this does prove to be Weis' last home game as coach of the Irish, I fully expect him to have his team extremely motivated. Last year, the Irish were upset in their home finale. Favored by nearly three touchdowns vs Syracuse, they were winning by 13 points in the fourth quarter. However, they let the Orange come all the way back and suffered an improbable 24-23 loss. Weis has described that as one of the worst feelings of his coaching career and he absolutely does NOT want to go through the same thing again, particularly if this really is his final game here. He doesn't want to go out like here and he doesn't want his seniors to lose their final game here. He described last year by saying: "...those seniors walked out of here for the last time with a loss. It was a gut-wrenching feeling that stayed with you for some time." Even with that result, note that the Irish are still 7-2 their last nine home finales. I 2007, they won 28-7 as a -6.5 point favorite. In 2006, they won 41-9 as a -29 point favorite. While the Huskies do have a formidable ground attack, the Irish have a significant advantage in the passing game. Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen has completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,053 yards and 21 touchdowns against four interceptions. Conversely, UConn's Zach Fraser has completed only 51.2 percent of his passes for 815 yards with four touchdowns against seven interceptions. Facing a UConn defense that gave up 711 yards in its last time, including 480 through the air, I expect Clausen, Tate and co. to have a big game. The Huskies have been keeping it close all season but this time, I don't expect them to be able to keep up. *10 Personal Favorite (Top Non-Conf. Favorite)
Kentucky vs. Georgia (NCAAF) - 7:45 PM EST Georgia Premium Pick
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Play Title **7-1 RUN** Burns' #1 Nov. SEC GAME OF THE MONTH!!
Play Selected Point Spread: -9.5/-107
I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. With the Wildcats off back to back victories, this line has remained in the high single-digits. I feel that provides us with solid value on the home favorite, one which I feel has superior talent, matchup advantages and plenty of motivation. With identical 6-4 records, this is a very big game for both teams. The Bulldogs are playing their home finale though, which should provide even further inspiration. Kentucky's strength on offense is its running game. However, that plays right into the strength of the Georgia defense. The Bulldogs are very tough against the run (held Auburn to 115 rushing yards on 38 carries last weekend, limiting the talented Ben Tate to a season low 67) while being somewhat vulnerable against the pass. The Wildcats don't have the QB to take advantage of that weakness though. Indeed, true freshman Morgan Newton has just 402 passing yards in five games and Kentucky's passing offense ranks 112th nationally at just 147.7 yards per game. While I'm assuming that he'll play, it should be noted that Kentucky's dynamic weapon Randall Cobb isn't 100% and is currently questionable. Even if Cobb is 100%, I expect the Wildcats to have some trouble moving the ball. The Bulldogs have owned this series. They're 11-1 the last 12 games in the series and 49-11-2 all-time. The Wildcats haven't beaten them here in Athens since the 1970s. They won by 11, as -7 point favorites, the last meeting here. That brings them to 3-0 ATS the last three meetings here and 5-2 ATS in seven series meetings here since 1995. The Bulldogs won ALL seven of those games by a minimum of nine points and I expect another double-digit victory here. *8 Top Nov SEC Fav.
Oregon vs. Arizona U (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Arizona U Premium Pick
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Play Title *HUGE TV WINNER* Burns MAIN EVENT (PERFECT 6-0 L6)
Play Selected Point Spread: 6/-106
I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. Both these teams have been pretty good to me again this season. I won with the Ducks on Opening Night of the season (38 point winner on the 'under') and have gone 5-2 when playing their games overall. While I did win with the Ducks when they beat both Utah and Cal, most recently, I successfully played against them when they were upset by Stanford on 11/7. I haven't been involved with nearly as many Arizona games. In fact, I only bet on one game that the Wildcats played in all season. That was on 10/17, when they knocked off Stanford. I feel that this will be an excellent spot to again back the Wildcats. Most are aware that this is a huge game for the Ducks. Indeed, if they can win here and follow it up by winning the 'Civil War' (vs. OSU on 12/3) then they'll capture the Pac-10 crown and advance to the Rose Bowl. The Wildcats have flown under the radar a bit more though and many may not realize that they are also in control of their own destiny. If they can win this game and also win their final two games (at ASU and at USC) then they'll be the team which wins the Pac-10 and plays in the Rose Bowl. Granted, even if they do win this one, winning back to back road games won't be easy. Still, the fact remains that this game is arguably every bit as important to Arizona, as it is to Oregon. Some may be surprised to find the Wildcats in this position. They shouldn't be. The Wildcats pounded the likes of UCLA, California and Arizona State last season, nearly defeating USC. They followed that up with a double-digit win over BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, finishing at 8-5. That record could easily have been better as all five losses came by 10 points or less. This year's team returned 13 starters but lost just 13 lettermen, the second fewest in the Pac-10. Conversely, Oregon lost 20 lettermen and returned only nine starters. With the Ducks favored by a handful of points in the road, one would expect them to have a significant advantage on at least one side of the ball. However, that's not really the case. Oregon does have slightly better overall numbers in terms of points scored and allowed. However, the Wildcats have gained more yards and allowed less. Additionally, a closer look reveals that Arizona's home numbers are actually quite a lot better than Oregon's stats on the road. Arizona is 5-0 at home, going 3-1 ATS in lined games. Oregon is 2-2 on the road, both SU and ATS. Looking at the last few seasons and we find the Ducks at 8-7 ATS in their 15 road games. During the same stretch, the Wildcats have gone 12-4 ATS in their home lined games, 14-4 at home overall. This season, the Ducks are averaging 29.2 points and 360.2 yards of offense on the road. The Wildcats are averaging 34.2 points per game at home and 497.4 yards of offense. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats are allowing 16.2 points and 277.6 yards per game at home. Conversely, the Ducks are allowing 24.7 points and 368 yards on the road. With last year's game being played at Eugene, the Ducks jumped out to a huge lead against the Wildcats. However, Arizona stormed all the way back and pulled within three points, before eventually losing by 10. Looking at the time of possession and we find that the Wildcats had a whopping 41:46 to 18:14 advantage, in terms of time of possession. Again, that was at Oregon. The previous year, when the teams met here at Arizona, despite being listed as heavy underdogs, the Wildcats won 34-24. The Ducks were #2 in the country at the time and that loss killed their BCS dreams. The Ducks looked pretty good in beating Arizona State last week. That was at home though. Their most recent road game was the outright loss vs. Stanford. Including that result, they're just 3-10-2 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. In addition to their perfect home record, the Wildcats, who lost at Cal last week, are 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine times that they were coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Playing their home finale, with much at stake, I expect them to bounce back with a massive effort. *9 Pac 10 Main Event
Chicago Bulls vs. Denver Nuggets (NBA) - 9:05 PM EST Chicago Bulls Premium Pick
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Play Title **PERFECT 5-0 L5 NBA** Burns' BEST BET ATS BLOWOUT
Play Selected Point Spread: 8/-107
I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. These teams played a very close game against each other earlier this month at Chicago. The Nuggets took a 1-point lead with 0.6 seconds left on the clock only to see the Bulls seemingly hit the game-winner at the buzzer. However, a very lengthy review ruled that the shot was no good, leaving Denver as the winner. Knowing what a tough loss that was, I successfully played against the Bulls the next night - they lost by double-digits at Toronto. The Bulls have won two of three since that loss though and they should be highly motivated for some payback. Its true that the Bulls aren't usually as good on the road. Its also true that the Nuggets are tough here at Denver. However, the schedule is working in the Bulls favor here. They had yesterday off. The Nuggets come off a loss vs. the Clippers, at LA. That loss took quite a lot of energy too, as the Nuggets were down by double-digits at halftime and had to fight hard to get back into the game. Note that the Nuggets are 0-2 SU/ATS the past two weeks when playing the second of back to back games. They lost by six vs. the Bucks and by 25 vs. the Hawks. Looking back further and we find them at just 8-12 the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games. The Bulls are 13-8-1 ATS the last 22 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. I expect them to deliver a highly motivated effort and look for this one to also come down to the wire. 7* Best Bet[/COLOR]
